DNB & IntraFish Seafood Investment Forum 19th November 2013

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Dag Sletmo, Investor Relations Manager DNB & IntraFish Seafood Investment Forum 19th November 2013

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DNB & IntraFish Seafood Investment Forum 19th November 2013. Dag Sletmo, Investor Relations Manager. Company overview 3Q results Biological outlook Market outlook Regulatory issues and growth. Agenda. Cermaq top 3 farmer by volume, large Chile exposure. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of DNB & IntraFish Seafood Investment Forum 19th November 2013

Page 1: DNB & IntraFish  Seafood Investment Forum   19th November 2013

Dag Sletmo, Investor Relations Manager

DNB & IntraFish Seafood Investment Forum

19th November 2013

Page 2: DNB & IntraFish  Seafood Investment Forum   19th November 2013

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Agenda

Company overview

3Q results

Biological outlook

Market outlook

Regulatory issues and growth

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Cermaq top 3 farmer by volume, large Chile exposure

Norway1,138

(57%)

Others

-298

(15%)Canada -107

(5%)

Chile

-468

(23%)

Others

0

(0%)

Canada

-18

(12%)

Chile

-75

(51%)

Norway53

(36%)

GLOBAL HARVEST OF ATLANTIC SALMON (2013e ) CERMAQ (SOLD VOLUME, LTM per Q3 2013) GLOBAL TOP 20 SALMON FAMRMERS

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A global leader in sustainable aquacultureCermaq’s value chain

Pelagic fishing

-Terrestrial

farming

-Fish meal

and fish oil

production

-Raw material

processing

-Feed

production

-Salmon

farming

-Primary

-processing

-Smolt

-production

-Secondary

-Processing

-(VAP)

Research & Development-Research &

development

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Shareholders

# Holding pct Name Country Account type1 59,2 NÆRINGS- OG HANDELSD NOR Ordinary2 7,7 LANSDOWNE DEVELOPED GBR Ordinary3 5,4 FOLKETRYGDFONDET NOR Ordinary4 2,1 THE BANK OF NEW YORK BEL Nominee5 1,7 PARETO AKSJE NORGE NOR Ordinary6 1,5 JPMORGAN CHASE BANK, GBR Nominee7 1,1 LANSDOWNE UK STRATEG GBR Ordinary8 1,1 MONTAGUE PLACE CUSTO GBR Nominee9 1,1 SKANDINAVISKA ENSKIL NOR Ordinary10 0,9 STATE STREET BANK & USA Nominee11 0,8 DZ PRIVATBANK S.A. LUX Nominee12 0,7 PARETO AKTIV NOR Ordinary13 0,7 KVERVA AS NOR Ordinary14 0,5 THE BANK OF NEW YORK BEL Nominee15 0,5 KLP AKSJE NORGE INDE NOR Ordinary16 0,5 VERDIPAPIRFONDET HAN NOR Ordinary17 0,5 MORGAN STANLEY & CO USA Nominee18 0,4 THE NORTHERN TRUST C GBR Nominee19 0,4 BNP PARIBAS SEC SERV FRA Nominee20 0,4 PIMCO EQS PATHFINDER USA Ordinary

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Company overview

3Q results

Biological outlook

Market outlook

Regulatory issues and growth

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* EBIT pre fair value adjustments on live inventory and non-recurring items** Pro forma is exluding EWOS*** Return on capital employed, 12-months rolling average, based on EBIT pre fair value and bargain purchase gain

Highlights – Cermaq pro forma

Group pro forma EBIT pre fair value NOK 113m- Excludes EWOS results for Q3

Mainstream EBIT pre fair value NOK 144m from improved salmon prices

Sale of EWOS successfully completed 31 Oct- Classified as discontinued operations from Q313

  NOK 114m gain from sale of Copeinca shares

- Proceeds of NOK 929m received in Q3

(NOKm) Q3 13 Q2 13

ROCE - combined operations***

7.1 % 6.3 %

NIBD - combined operations

3 196 4 155

Equity ratio - total operations

46.7 % 44.1 %

(NOKm) - pro forma** Q3 13 Q3 12

Operating revenues 1 114 663EBIT pre gain* 113 (97)

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Mainstream results

Volumes increased by 14% vs Q312- 3kt below communicated estimate for Q313

Strong EBIT improvement from Q312 - Substantial increase in salmon prices vs Q312

- Solid contribution from all regions

Positive ROCE 12m - first time in 4 quarters

EBIT Q3 13 vs Q3 12

-110

2

-24

350

-73

144

2

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Q3 12 Volume Price Cost Other Q3 13

Return on capital employed(12-month rolling average)

1.2 %

(5.3)% (5.0)%

(0.6)%

4.2 %

Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13

(NOK million, NOK per kg) Q3 13 Q3 12

Volumes sold (kt, gwe) 27.9 24.5

Operating revenues 1 110.8 664.5

EBIT* 144.0 (72.9)

EBIT per kg 5.2 (3.0)

ROCE (12-month rolling avg.) 4.2 % 1.2 %

* excl non-recurring items

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Sale of EWOS completed

Key financial highlights of the transaction- Enterprise Value NOK 6.5bn

- Proceeds of NOK 6.2bn received at closing 31 October 2013

- Contingent consideration of NOK 180m to be received at a later stage

Final proceeds based on a completion statement before year-end- Concluding certain adjustment items, including net working capital (NWC) vs normalized

NWC

Reported gain estimated at NOK 2.0–2.5bn

Extraordinary dividend in the range of NOK 4.5–5.0bn (NOK 48–54/share) - Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) expected late December

- Refinancing of Cermaq to be completed prior to EGM

- Likely payment date early January 2014

- To be paid out as ordinary dividend

3Q results

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Cermaq pro forma financials

Pro forma figures for illustrative purposes

The pro forma balance- Includes operational items in Mainstream towards EWOS- Excludes all financial items towards EWOS- Excludes any cash balance in CEQ

NIBD & Equity line only for illustration

Q3 13 Q3 12 YTD 13 YTD 12(Figures in NOKm)

Operating revenues 1 114 663 3 484 2 100

EBITDA 177 (105) 514 (44) EBITDA margin 16 % -16 % 15 % -2 %

EBIT pre FV 113 (97) 281 (97) EBIT margin 10 % -15 % 8 % -5 %

Pro forma Pro forma

30.09.13(Figures in NOKm) Pro forma

Fixed assets 1 944 Intangible assets 2 027 Financial fixed assets 58 Total non-current assets 4 030

Inventories 3 629 Accounts receivables 447 Other current receivables 361 Total current assets 4 437

Total assets* 8 467

Account payables 645 Other current liabilities 311 Total current liabilities 956

Deferred taxes and Pension obligations 951

NIBD/Equity 6 561

Total equity and liabilities 8 467 * excluding cash

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Company overview

3Q results

Biological outlook

Market outlook

Regulatory issues and growth

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Current fish health status

No new outbreaks of IHN – All fish in

BC vaccinated

Higher than normal sea lice levels,

but not alarming

Algae and low Dissolved Oxygen

levels (DO)

-MS Canada

Overall status is good

Mortality is low

Higher than normal sea lice levels

this fall. Resistance in Nordland is

causing concerns

PD in Finnmark. All sites in

Langfjorden depopulated

-MS Norway

Caligus and SRS is challenging, but

levels better than last quarter

Increasing use of antibiotics

-MS Chile

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Preventive measures per country

IHN: Screening, reduced handling

and vaccination

Winter Ulcers: Vaccination, vitamin

C trials and antibiotics trials

Algae and DO: Close monitoring and

preventive measures. Results from

R&D promising

Stress reducing measures

Education and competence building

Working on smolt sourcing

Selective use of sites

SRS vaccine trials

Antiparasite treatments

-MS Canada -MS Norway

-MS Chile

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Sanitary situation in Chile – lice level improved

Reduced sea lice levels- More industry coordination

- Regulator activity

- Winter season

Improved mortality- SRS main challenge but

better control of disease

- Early harvest of CAD sites*

- Seasonality

All data are for Mainstream Chile *Category high dissemination site (sites with weekly average of more than 9 total adult caligus per fish)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jan-

09A

pr-0

9ju

l.09

okt.

09Ja

n-10

Apr

-10

jul.1

0ok

t.10

Jan-

11A

pr-1

1ju

l.11

okt.

11Ja

n-12

Apr

-12

jul.1

2ok

t.12

Jan-

13A

pr-1

3ju

l.13

Kg R

WE

Average harvest weight, Atlantic salmonkg RWE

0%

1%

2%

3%

Jan-

09A

pr-0

9ju

l.09

okt.

09Ja

n-10

Apr

-10

jul.1

0ok

t.10

Jan-

11A

pr-1

1ju

l.11

okt.

11Ja

n-12

Apr

-12

jul.1

2ok

t.12

Jan-

13A

pr-1

3ju

l.13

Mortality Atlantic salmonmonthly

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

Q1/

09

Q2/

09

Q3/

09

Q4/

09

Q1/

10

Q2/

10

Q3/

10

Q4/

10

Q1/

11

Q2/

11

Q3/

11

Q4/

11

Q1/

12

Q2/

12

Q3/

12

Q4/

12

Q1/

13

Q2/

13

Q3/

13

Antibiotics usage Mainstream ChileGr/t LWE

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan-

09A

pr-0

9ju

l.09

okt.

09Ja

n-10

Apr

-10

jul.1

0ok

t.10

Jan-

11A

pr-1

1ju

l.11

okt.

11Ja

n-12

Apr

-12

jul.1

2ok

t.12

Jan.

13A

pr.1

3Ju

l.13

Caligus per Atlantic salmon(Adult females + mobile)

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Regional profitability

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1Q07

3Q07

1Q08

3Q08

1Q09

3Q09

1Q10

3Q10

1Q11

3Q11

1Q12

3Q12

1Q13

3Q13

EBIT/kg, NOK

Norway

Canada

Chile

ISA crisis

ISA recoveryand strong prices

declining market prices

recovering market prices, biological challenges in Chile lift cost

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The cornerstones of Cermaq’s strategy

-Diversification

-Smolt quality

-Diversification by geography

and species

-Preventive fish health

-Optimal feed and nutrition

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Market outlook

Company overview

3Q results

Biological outlook

Market outlook

Regulatory issues and growth

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Harvest of Atlantic salmon

Sales per region of Atlantic salmon

Harvest and supply

Source: Kontali Analyse

kTonnes WFE Q3 12 Q3 13 FY 12 FY 13E

REGION

EU 234 233 918 921

USA 89 88 345 366

Japan 16 15 63 56

Russia 40 36 172 163

China / Hong Kong 16 17 62 65

Brazil 17 22 72 86

Other 83 93 339 366

EST. SUPPLY 497 505 1 971 2 023

Source: Kontali Analyse

World wide harvest of farmed salmonids (kTonnes WFE)

-

250

500

750

1 000

1 250

1 500

1 750

2 000

2 250

2 500

2 750

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E

Atlantic salmon Large trout Coho

kTonnes WFE Q3 12 Q3 13 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E

REGION

Canada 30 28 124 107 113

Chile 97 113 364 470 488

Norw ay 295 282 1 183 1 135 1 169

UK 42 40 159 151 148

Other 35 37 152 156 163

EST. HARVEST 499 500 1 982 2 019 2 081

Source: Kontali Analyse

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Chile; 49 Chile; 50

Chile; 75 Chile; 84

Norway; 38Norway; 51

Norway; 51

Norway; 56

Canada; 21

Canada; 19

Canada; 15

Canada; 21

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

ACT ACT EST EST

FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14

kt,

gw

e

Outlook 2014

Strong Coho season to support improved results in Chile

Reduction of biological challenges and cost improvement in Chile main focus in 2014

14% organic volume growth 2014 vs 2013

Continued tight supply supports strong market during 2014

+14%

120 kt 141 kt 161 kt109 kt

+18%

+10%

Annual harvest, kt

2 %

13 %

22 %

30 %

23 %

10 %

0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %

2 %

10 %

15 % 15 % 15 %

10 %

8 % 8 %7 %

5 %

3 %2 %

8 % 8 % 8 %9 %

8 % 8 %9 % 9 % 9 %

8 % 8 % 8 %

0 %

5 %

10 %

15 %

20 %

25 %

30 %

35 %

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ago

mo

nth

ly s

ha

re o

f fu

ll ye

ar

volu

me

Coho Harvest vs Sales vs Consumption, seasonality

Harvest Sales Consumption

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Market prices farmed salmonids

Europe - Norway (FCA Oslo)(NOK/kg)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: NOS, Kontali

USA - Chile / Canada(USD/lb)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Chilean Atlantic fillet, FOB M iami, 3-4 lb, C-Trim

Canada (West coast) whole fish fresh, FOB Seattle, 8-10 lbSource: NOS, Kontali

Japan - Chile (wholesale Tsukiji market)(JPY/kg)

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

J apan - Chile frozen coho 4-6lb J PY/kg

J apan - Chile frozen trout 4-6lb J PY/kgSource: Urner Barry Source: Urner Berry

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

W 3

1

W 3

4

W 3

7

W 4

0

W 4

3

W 4

6

W 4

9

W 5

2

W 0

3

W 0

6

W 0

9

W 1

2

W 1

5

W 1

8

W 2

1

W 2

4

W 2

7

W 3

0

W 3

3

W 3

6

W 3

9

W 4

2

2012 2013

Japan - Chile, Tsukiji wholesale market(USD/kg)

Trout Coho

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Company overview

3Q results

Biological outlook

Market outlook

Regulatory issues and growth

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Demand for animal proteins increases

-Source: UN Population Division, Brookings Institution, FAO -Source: Food and Agriculture Organisation.

-Graph courtesy The Economist

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Demand: emerging markets a key driver

Growing population drives food demand Growing income levels drive protein

demand

-Sources: FAO, IMF, Cermaq

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Supply: seafood is a small food category

Seafood 2% of world food production

- Farmed salmon only 1.5% of seafood production- Plenty room for growth

-World food consumption, calories

-Sources: FAO

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Supply: flat wild catch an opportunity and a threat

Opportunity: wild catch has been flat for 25 years Aquaculture must provide the growth to satisfy growing demand

Threat: marine content in salmon feed comes from wild catch

-Sources: FAO

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Salmon farming is efficient, low on carbon footprint and fresh water usage – and tastes good!

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Growth has been massive – can it continue?

• Volume 10.1% CAGR last 20 years, 6.5% CAGR last 10 years

-Source: Kontali

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Prerequisites for continued growth

Regulatory issues

- Norway

- Chile

- Canada

Access to raw materials for feed

- Potential from discards and trimmings

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Feed raw material availabilitySo far so good, but there is a limit

MT, feed sold vs marine ingredients used. EWOS

- Mill

ion

s o

f to

nn

es

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Feed resources for the futureDiscards and trimmings are very interesting

Partially used (known resources globally)

Harvest from fishing which is not used for

human consumption (20-30 mill tonnes)

Discards from fishing fleet and processing From fleet 7 mill tonnes

From processing 26 mill tonnes

Agricultural products and waste

Future (new) sources globally:

Animal plankton (krill, raudåte)

Macro algae

Onecell biomass

Agricultural waste from plants and

animals

Genetically modified plants

-Important to create an economic incentive for the fishing fleet to deliver discards

and trimmings to the aquafeed industry. The physical product is there, the buyers

are there and willing to pay – but the logistics chain must be built