DNB & IntraFish Seafood Investment Forum 19th November 2013
description
Transcript of DNB & IntraFish Seafood Investment Forum 19th November 2013
Dag Sletmo, Investor Relations Manager
DNB & IntraFish Seafood Investment Forum
19th November 2013
2
Agenda
Company overview
3Q results
Biological outlook
Market outlook
Regulatory issues and growth
3
Cermaq top 3 farmer by volume, large Chile exposure
Norway1,138
(57%)
Others
-298
(15%)Canada -107
(5%)
Chile
-468
(23%)
Others
0
(0%)
Canada
-18
(12%)
Chile
-75
(51%)
Norway53
(36%)
GLOBAL HARVEST OF ATLANTIC SALMON (2013e ) CERMAQ (SOLD VOLUME, LTM per Q3 2013) GLOBAL TOP 20 SALMON FAMRMERS
4
A global leader in sustainable aquacultureCermaq’s value chain
Pelagic fishing
-Terrestrial
farming
-Fish meal
and fish oil
production
-Raw material
processing
-Feed
production
-Salmon
farming
-Primary
-processing
-Smolt
-production
-Secondary
-Processing
-(VAP)
Research & Development-Research &
development
5
Shareholders
# Holding pct Name Country Account type1 59,2 NÆRINGS- OG HANDELSD NOR Ordinary2 7,7 LANSDOWNE DEVELOPED GBR Ordinary3 5,4 FOLKETRYGDFONDET NOR Ordinary4 2,1 THE BANK OF NEW YORK BEL Nominee5 1,7 PARETO AKSJE NORGE NOR Ordinary6 1,5 JPMORGAN CHASE BANK, GBR Nominee7 1,1 LANSDOWNE UK STRATEG GBR Ordinary8 1,1 MONTAGUE PLACE CUSTO GBR Nominee9 1,1 SKANDINAVISKA ENSKIL NOR Ordinary10 0,9 STATE STREET BANK & USA Nominee11 0,8 DZ PRIVATBANK S.A. LUX Nominee12 0,7 PARETO AKTIV NOR Ordinary13 0,7 KVERVA AS NOR Ordinary14 0,5 THE BANK OF NEW YORK BEL Nominee15 0,5 KLP AKSJE NORGE INDE NOR Ordinary16 0,5 VERDIPAPIRFONDET HAN NOR Ordinary17 0,5 MORGAN STANLEY & CO USA Nominee18 0,4 THE NORTHERN TRUST C GBR Nominee19 0,4 BNP PARIBAS SEC SERV FRA Nominee20 0,4 PIMCO EQS PATHFINDER USA Ordinary
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Company overview
3Q results
Biological outlook
Market outlook
Regulatory issues and growth
7
* EBIT pre fair value adjustments on live inventory and non-recurring items** Pro forma is exluding EWOS*** Return on capital employed, 12-months rolling average, based on EBIT pre fair value and bargain purchase gain
Highlights – Cermaq pro forma
Group pro forma EBIT pre fair value NOK 113m- Excludes EWOS results for Q3
Mainstream EBIT pre fair value NOK 144m from improved salmon prices
Sale of EWOS successfully completed 31 Oct- Classified as discontinued operations from Q313
NOK 114m gain from sale of Copeinca shares
- Proceeds of NOK 929m received in Q3
(NOKm) Q3 13 Q2 13
ROCE - combined operations***
7.1 % 6.3 %
NIBD - combined operations
3 196 4 155
Equity ratio - total operations
46.7 % 44.1 %
(NOKm) - pro forma** Q3 13 Q3 12
Operating revenues 1 114 663EBIT pre gain* 113 (97)
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Mainstream results
Volumes increased by 14% vs Q312- 3kt below communicated estimate for Q313
Strong EBIT improvement from Q312 - Substantial increase in salmon prices vs Q312
- Solid contribution from all regions
Positive ROCE 12m - first time in 4 quarters
EBIT Q3 13 vs Q3 12
-110
2
-24
350
-73
144
2
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q3 12 Volume Price Cost Other Q3 13
Return on capital employed(12-month rolling average)
1.2 %
(5.3)% (5.0)%
(0.6)%
4.2 %
Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
(NOK million, NOK per kg) Q3 13 Q3 12
Volumes sold (kt, gwe) 27.9 24.5
Operating revenues 1 110.8 664.5
EBIT* 144.0 (72.9)
EBIT per kg 5.2 (3.0)
ROCE (12-month rolling avg.) 4.2 % 1.2 %
* excl non-recurring items
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Sale of EWOS completed
Key financial highlights of the transaction- Enterprise Value NOK 6.5bn
- Proceeds of NOK 6.2bn received at closing 31 October 2013
- Contingent consideration of NOK 180m to be received at a later stage
Final proceeds based on a completion statement before year-end- Concluding certain adjustment items, including net working capital (NWC) vs normalized
NWC
Reported gain estimated at NOK 2.0–2.5bn
Extraordinary dividend in the range of NOK 4.5–5.0bn (NOK 48–54/share) - Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) expected late December
- Refinancing of Cermaq to be completed prior to EGM
- Likely payment date early January 2014
- To be paid out as ordinary dividend
3Q results
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Cermaq pro forma financials
Pro forma figures for illustrative purposes
The pro forma balance- Includes operational items in Mainstream towards EWOS- Excludes all financial items towards EWOS- Excludes any cash balance in CEQ
NIBD & Equity line only for illustration
Q3 13 Q3 12 YTD 13 YTD 12(Figures in NOKm)
Operating revenues 1 114 663 3 484 2 100
EBITDA 177 (105) 514 (44) EBITDA margin 16 % -16 % 15 % -2 %
EBIT pre FV 113 (97) 281 (97) EBIT margin 10 % -15 % 8 % -5 %
Pro forma Pro forma
30.09.13(Figures in NOKm) Pro forma
Fixed assets 1 944 Intangible assets 2 027 Financial fixed assets 58 Total non-current assets 4 030
Inventories 3 629 Accounts receivables 447 Other current receivables 361 Total current assets 4 437
Total assets* 8 467
Account payables 645 Other current liabilities 311 Total current liabilities 956
Deferred taxes and Pension obligations 951
NIBD/Equity 6 561
Total equity and liabilities 8 467 * excluding cash
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Company overview
3Q results
Biological outlook
Market outlook
Regulatory issues and growth
12
Current fish health status
No new outbreaks of IHN – All fish in
BC vaccinated
Higher than normal sea lice levels,
but not alarming
Algae and low Dissolved Oxygen
levels (DO)
-MS Canada
Overall status is good
Mortality is low
Higher than normal sea lice levels
this fall. Resistance in Nordland is
causing concerns
PD in Finnmark. All sites in
Langfjorden depopulated
-MS Norway
Caligus and SRS is challenging, but
levels better than last quarter
Increasing use of antibiotics
-MS Chile
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Preventive measures per country
IHN: Screening, reduced handling
and vaccination
Winter Ulcers: Vaccination, vitamin
C trials and antibiotics trials
Algae and DO: Close monitoring and
preventive measures. Results from
R&D promising
Stress reducing measures
Education and competence building
Working on smolt sourcing
Selective use of sites
SRS vaccine trials
Antiparasite treatments
-MS Canada -MS Norway
-MS Chile
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Sanitary situation in Chile – lice level improved
Reduced sea lice levels- More industry coordination
- Regulator activity
- Winter season
Improved mortality- SRS main challenge but
better control of disease
- Early harvest of CAD sites*
- Seasonality
All data are for Mainstream Chile *Category high dissemination site (sites with weekly average of more than 9 total adult caligus per fish)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan-
09A
pr-0
9ju
l.09
okt.
09Ja
n-10
Apr
-10
jul.1
0ok
t.10
Jan-
11A
pr-1
1ju
l.11
okt.
11Ja
n-12
Apr
-12
jul.1
2ok
t.12
Jan-
13A
pr-1
3ju
l.13
Kg R
WE
Average harvest weight, Atlantic salmonkg RWE
0%
1%
2%
3%
Jan-
09A
pr-0
9ju
l.09
okt.
09Ja
n-10
Apr
-10
jul.1
0ok
t.10
Jan-
11A
pr-1
1ju
l.11
okt.
11Ja
n-12
Apr
-12
jul.1
2ok
t.12
Jan-
13A
pr-1
3ju
l.13
Mortality Atlantic salmonmonthly
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
Q1/
09
Q2/
09
Q3/
09
Q4/
09
Q1/
10
Q2/
10
Q3/
10
Q4/
10
Q1/
11
Q2/
11
Q3/
11
Q4/
11
Q1/
12
Q2/
12
Q3/
12
Q4/
12
Q1/
13
Q2/
13
Q3/
13
Antibiotics usage Mainstream ChileGr/t LWE
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan-
09A
pr-0
9ju
l.09
okt.
09Ja
n-10
Apr
-10
jul.1
0ok
t.10
Jan-
11A
pr-1
1ju
l.11
okt.
11Ja
n-12
Apr
-12
jul.1
2ok
t.12
Jan.
13A
pr.1
3Ju
l.13
Caligus per Atlantic salmon(Adult females + mobile)
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Regional profitability
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
3Q09
1Q10
3Q10
1Q11
3Q11
1Q12
3Q12
1Q13
3Q13
EBIT/kg, NOK
Norway
Canada
Chile
ISA crisis
ISA recoveryand strong prices
declining market prices
recovering market prices, biological challenges in Chile lift cost
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The cornerstones of Cermaq’s strategy
-Diversification
-Smolt quality
-Diversification by geography
and species
-Preventive fish health
-Optimal feed and nutrition
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Market outlook
Company overview
3Q results
Biological outlook
Market outlook
Regulatory issues and growth
18
Harvest of Atlantic salmon
Sales per region of Atlantic salmon
Harvest and supply
Source: Kontali Analyse
kTonnes WFE Q3 12 Q3 13 FY 12 FY 13E
REGION
EU 234 233 918 921
USA 89 88 345 366
Japan 16 15 63 56
Russia 40 36 172 163
China / Hong Kong 16 17 62 65
Brazil 17 22 72 86
Other 83 93 339 366
EST. SUPPLY 497 505 1 971 2 023
Source: Kontali Analyse
World wide harvest of farmed salmonids (kTonnes WFE)
-
250
500
750
1 000
1 250
1 500
1 750
2 000
2 250
2 500
2 750
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E
Atlantic salmon Large trout Coho
kTonnes WFE Q3 12 Q3 13 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E
REGION
Canada 30 28 124 107 113
Chile 97 113 364 470 488
Norw ay 295 282 1 183 1 135 1 169
UK 42 40 159 151 148
Other 35 37 152 156 163
EST. HARVEST 499 500 1 982 2 019 2 081
Source: Kontali Analyse
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Chile; 49 Chile; 50
Chile; 75 Chile; 84
Norway; 38Norway; 51
Norway; 51
Norway; 56
Canada; 21
Canada; 19
Canada; 15
Canada; 21
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
ACT ACT EST EST
FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14
kt,
gw
e
Outlook 2014
Strong Coho season to support improved results in Chile
Reduction of biological challenges and cost improvement in Chile main focus in 2014
14% organic volume growth 2014 vs 2013
Continued tight supply supports strong market during 2014
+14%
120 kt 141 kt 161 kt109 kt
+18%
+10%
Annual harvest, kt
2 %
13 %
22 %
30 %
23 %
10 %
0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
2 %
10 %
15 % 15 % 15 %
10 %
8 % 8 %7 %
5 %
3 %2 %
8 % 8 % 8 %9 %
8 % 8 %9 % 9 % 9 %
8 % 8 % 8 %
0 %
5 %
10 %
15 %
20 %
25 %
30 %
35 %
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ago
mo
nth
ly s
ha
re o
f fu
ll ye
ar
volu
me
Coho Harvest vs Sales vs Consumption, seasonality
Harvest Sales Consumption
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Market prices farmed salmonids
Europe - Norway (FCA Oslo)(NOK/kg)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: NOS, Kontali
USA - Chile / Canada(USD/lb)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Chilean Atlantic fillet, FOB M iami, 3-4 lb, C-Trim
Canada (West coast) whole fish fresh, FOB Seattle, 8-10 lbSource: NOS, Kontali
Japan - Chile (wholesale Tsukiji market)(JPY/kg)
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
J apan - Chile frozen coho 4-6lb J PY/kg
J apan - Chile frozen trout 4-6lb J PY/kgSource: Urner Barry Source: Urner Berry
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
W 3
1
W 3
4
W 3
7
W 4
0
W 4
3
W 4
6
W 4
9
W 5
2
W 0
3
W 0
6
W 0
9
W 1
2
W 1
5
W 1
8
W 2
1
W 2
4
W 2
7
W 3
0
W 3
3
W 3
6
W 3
9
W 4
2
2012 2013
Japan - Chile, Tsukiji wholesale market(USD/kg)
Trout Coho
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Company overview
3Q results
Biological outlook
Market outlook
Regulatory issues and growth
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Demand for animal proteins increases
-Source: UN Population Division, Brookings Institution, FAO -Source: Food and Agriculture Organisation.
-Graph courtesy The Economist
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Demand: emerging markets a key driver
Growing population drives food demand Growing income levels drive protein
demand
-Sources: FAO, IMF, Cermaq
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Supply: seafood is a small food category
Seafood 2% of world food production
- Farmed salmon only 1.5% of seafood production- Plenty room for growth
-World food consumption, calories
-Sources: FAO
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Supply: flat wild catch an opportunity and a threat
Opportunity: wild catch has been flat for 25 years Aquaculture must provide the growth to satisfy growing demand
Threat: marine content in salmon feed comes from wild catch
-Sources: FAO
26
Salmon farming is efficient, low on carbon footprint and fresh water usage – and tastes good!
27
Growth has been massive – can it continue?
• Volume 10.1% CAGR last 20 years, 6.5% CAGR last 10 years
-Source: Kontali
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Prerequisites for continued growth
Regulatory issues
- Norway
- Chile
- Canada
Access to raw materials for feed
- Potential from discards and trimmings
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Feed raw material availabilitySo far so good, but there is a limit
MT, feed sold vs marine ingredients used. EWOS
- Mill
ion
s o
f to
nn
es
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Feed resources for the futureDiscards and trimmings are very interesting
Partially used (known resources globally)
Harvest from fishing which is not used for
human consumption (20-30 mill tonnes)
Discards from fishing fleet and processing From fleet 7 mill tonnes
From processing 26 mill tonnes
Agricultural products and waste
Future (new) sources globally:
Animal plankton (krill, raudåte)
Macro algae
Onecell biomass
Agricultural waste from plants and
animals
Genetically modified plants
-Important to create an economic incentive for the fishing fleet to deliver discards
and trimmings to the aquafeed industry. The physical product is there, the buyers
are there and willing to pay – but the logistics chain must be built