DMUG 2016 - Aidan Farrow, University of Hertfordshire

University of HertfordshireCentre for Atmospheric & Instrumentation ResearchUsing Mesoscale Models to Forecast Air Quality in Cities

Dr Aidan Farrow [email protected]

Thanks to:Dr Vikas Singh, Dr Charles Chemel, Prof Ranjeet Sokhi NERC (HiRAE), NCAS (Air Quality Forecast) and DefraBristol City CouncilTfGM, Salford and Oldham CouncilsFP7 Transphorm Dr Aidan Farrow [email protected]

Dr Aidan R Farrow [email protected]

Overview• Mesoscale Models – Regional to National Scale

E.g. The NCAS-UH Air Quality Forecast

• Regional scale signals contribute at the City scale

• Coupling Regional to Local modelsE.g. The HiRAE Project

• Application of Regional-Local ForecastsE.g. Working with Local Authorities

Using Mesoscale Models to Forecast Air Quality in Cities


Resolution:Europe (50 km)

UK (10 km)

Vertical levels:24 levels

A Mesoscale modeling system:

A 72 Hour ahead Air Quality forecast

WRF: Weather Research and Forecasting Model

SMOKE: The Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel

Emissions Modelling System

MEGAN: The Model of Emissions of

Gases and Aerosols from Nature

CMAQ: The Community Multi-scale

Air Quality CMAQ modelling system


WRFNumerical weather prediction model

CMAQChemical transport model



European TNO emissions (2005)Ten SNAP (Selected Nomenclature for Air Pollution) source sectors and international shipping

SNAP Sectors Combustion in energy and transformation industries Non-industrial combustion plants Combustion in manufacturing industry Production processes

Extraction and distribution of fossil fuels and geothermal energy Solvents and other product use Road transport

Other mobile sources and machinery Waste treatment and disposal Agriculture




The NCAS Air Quality Forecast (AQF) system designed for the research community but is available publicly for all to view. The UK's official air quality forecast system operated by DEFRA for public information can be found at http://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/forecasting/.

http://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/forecasting/

Hourly PM2.5Predictions for day 0-3 compare favourably with Urban and Rural sites

Rural

Urban


Background

Forecast comparison with AURN measurements(01-Jan-2014 to 30-June-2014)


PM2.5 comparison statistics

Statistics calculated at 40 PM2.5 background sites

Forecast performance indexes• Correlation Coefficient (CORR)• Mean error (MERR)• Root mean square error (RMSE)

HiRAE - High Resolution Air-Quality and Exposure

1. Developed from the NCAS Air Quality Forecast

2. An ‘Innovation Project’ with City Authorities

3. To promote the use of Forecasting and Modelling technology

4. HiRAE is

1. A Co-Designed Project2. Delivering NCAS Forecast Data3. Developing new model products4. Facilitating data exchange and expertise

Application of the Mesoscale system


• Air Quality Impacts in the UK are substantial • Health impacts cost UK £16bn annually (Defra)

• A factor in 29,000 deaths annually (HoC EAC 2014)

• City Authorities • Responsible for managing Air Quality• Responsible for meeting EU Air Quality Limit

Values• Limited resources

• (e.g. Bristol 7 monitoring sites – no modelling ability)• They are steering the project to maximize

benefit.

Local Authorities



Bristol

• City Authority• 1 Million People in the urban

area• England’s 6th largest City


Greater Manchester

• TfGM and Councils• 2.5 Million People• Estimated 1300 deaths /140,000

adult years of life lost


• How can the UH-NCAS forecast provide maximum usefulness for Local Authorities?

• Prediction/Warning• NO2 and PM• Education• Understanding Complex System• Provide spatial data

• We are providing high resolution simulations of air pollution for cities

1) City Air Quality maps 2) Forecast dashboard

1) Data download2) Data visualization

3) Low exposure routes4) Public Outreach and Active Travel5) Transport Planning and Management

16Dr Aidan R Farrow [email protected]

Local AQ, Sources, Hotspots (e.g. PM, NOx)

Regional AQ/climate,

LRT,O3 and PM2.5

Urban AQ, Photochemical

smogNOx, Ozone, PM

Source apportionment

LOCAL

URBAN REGIONAL

GLOBAL

UK-City Forecast System• What are the city vs regional processes the model needs to consider?

• Meteorology• Localised sources and dispersion

• What does the system need to include?• Regional Signal• Local emissions• Local dispersion

A 72 Hour ahead Air Quality forecast

WRF: Weather Research and Forecasting Model

SMOKE: The Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel

Emissions Modelling System

MEGAN: The Model of Emissions of

Gases and Aerosols from Nature

CMAQ: The Community Multi-scale

Air Quality CMAQ modelling system






Air Quality Data Pre-processorMet Data Pre-processor Emissions Data Pre-

processor

CAR-FMICity Scale Model

Run Daily:Europe - 50kmUK -10kmCity traffic model

Bristol, Manchester, London


Bloomsbury Measurement

Combined Urban and Regional Model Signal

NO2 (µg/m3)

22

Main Output Products

Description

Model System UK Forecast (WRF-CMAQ) linked to City Model (OSCAR)

Data Dashboard Online data viewing and retrieval tool

Daily city scale forecast maps NO2, PM10 & PM2.5 3 day ahead high resolution maps

Population exposure Population exposure maps for NO2, PM10 & PM2.5 3 day ahead high resolution maps for Bristol and Manchester

Air quality statistics NO2, O3, PM10 & PM2.5 trends and means via the dashboard

Low Pollution and exposure Routes Low pollution routes for active travel


PROJECT OUTPUTS


Conclusions 1

• Collaboration provides useful insight• City Authorities are interested in

• Spatial Data• Forecast DataFor use in• Environment Management• Traffic Management• Public Engagement

• NCAS Forecast now operates with an interface for city scale modelling

Using Mesoscale Models to Forecast Air Quality in Cities


Using Mesoscale Models to Forecast Air Quality in CitiesConclusions 2

• Mesoscale Models – Regional to National Scale E.g. The NCAS-UH Air Quality Forecast

• Regional scale signals contribute at the City scale

• Coupling Regional to Local modelsE.g. The HiRAE Project

• Application of Regional-Local ForecastsE.g. Working with Local Authorities

Thanks to:Dr Vikas Singh, Dr Charles Chemel, Prof Ranjeet Sokhi NERC (HiRAE), NCAS (Air Quality Forecast) and DefraBristol City CouncilTfGM, Salford and Oldham CouncilsFP7 Transphorm Dr Aidan Farrow [email protected]

DMUG 2016 - Aidan Farrow, University of Hertfordshire

Environment

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