Disaster Risk Assessment Report - Nelson Mandela …€¦ · Disaster Risk Assessment Report Final...
Transcript of Disaster Risk Assessment Report - Nelson Mandela …€¦ · Disaster Risk Assessment Report Final...
Disaster Risk Assessment Report
Final Report
Report Prepared for
The Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality
Disaster Management Centre
Project No 404277
March 2010
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Draft Report Page i
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final February 2010
Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality
The Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality PO Box 579
Port Elizabeth
6000
SRK Project Number 404277
SRK Consulting (Pretoria) Suite 47, Rynlal Building 320 The Hillside, Lynnwood, 0081, Pretoria South Africa P.O. Box 35290 Menlo Park 0102 South Africa Tel: +27 (0)12 361 9821 Fax: +27 (0)12 361 9912
SRK Consulting (Port Elizabeth) Ground Floor Bay Suites 1a Humewood Road Humerail PO Box 21842 Port Elizabeth 6000 South Africa Tel: +27 (0) 41 509 4800 Fax: +27 (0) 41 509 4850
Contact:
Matt Braune, Pr Eng, Partner
SRK Pretoria
March 2010
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Draft Report Page ii
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final February 2010
Compiled by: Reviewed by: Theuns van der Linde (MIRMSA, MDMISA) Matt Braune Pr.Eng Scientist Partner
Inputs by: Martin Stols GISc Tg (SA)
Andre Hindley BLC LLB, CMC, MPMISA
External Reviewer: Maryna Storie PrGISc, MDMISA, SSAG
The results contained in this report represent the findings of the high-level Disaster Risk Assessment that was conducted for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality during 2009/2010. These results are aimed at informing Disaster Risk Management
activities, and should not be used or applied in other applications.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Draft Report Page iii
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final February 2010
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... xii Summary of principal objectives ................................................................................................... xii Outline of work program relevant to this report ............................................................................ xii Overview of Results of the Disaster Risk Assessment ............................................................... xiii Conclusions and Findings ............................................................................................................ xiv
Recommendations ........................................................................................................................ xv
1 Introduction ...................................... ..................................................................... 1
2 Background and Brief .............................. ............................................................ 1
2.1 Geographical Setting ............................................................................................................. 1
2.2 The context of Disaster Risk Management in the NMBM ..................................................... 2
2.3 Background and objectives ................................................................................................... 2
2.4 Requirements in terms of Disaster Risk Assessments ......................................................... 3
3 Work Program ...................................... ................................................................. 5
3.1 Work program relevant to this report .................................................................................... 5
3.2 Main Project team .................................................................................................................. 6
4 Disaster Risk Assessment Methodology .............. .............................................. 7
4.1 Spatial and Non-Spatial Data Collection ............................................................................... 7
4.2 Setting of Standards & Guidelines for DRA .......................................................................... 8
4.3 Preparation of Base maps, Data collection sheets and Database for Key Stakeholder Consultations ......................................................................................................................... 8
4.4 Key Stakeholder Consultation (HAZMAT Investigation) ....................................................... 9
4.5 Disaster Management Centre (DMC) arrange consultation workshops ............................. 11
4.6 Creation of Maps and Data Collection Sheets for Workshops ........................................... 12
4.7 Capacity Building and Community Participation workshops .............................................. 12
4.8 Capturing of Data in GIS and Risk Modelling ..................................................................... 13
4.9 Creation of HVMCR Maps and Disaster Risk Profiles ........................................................ 14
4.10 Recommendations on Risk Reduction activities ................................................................. 14
4.11 Compilation of Draft Report and Workshop ........................................................................ 14
4.12 Report Review Process ....................................................................................................... 14
4.13 Updating and Delivery of Final Report ................................................................................ 14
5 Risk Model and Variables .......................... ......................................................... 15
5.1 The Disaster Risk Formula .................................................................................................. 15
5.2 Concepts and Model Variables ........................................................................................... 16
5.3 The Use of GIS .................................................................................................................... 18 5.3.1 What is a GIS ........................................................................................................................ 18 5.3.2 Software ................................................................................................................................ 19 5.3.3 Coordinate System ................................................................................................................ 19 5.3.4 Data directory structure ......................................................................................................... 19
5.4 Hazard Severity Indices and Mapping ................................................................................ 20 5.4.1 Hazards Description and Categories .................................................................................... 20 5.4.2 Approach to Hazard Profiling ................................................................................................ 23 5.4.3 Hazard Profiling through Stakeholder Consultation and Indigenous Knowledge ................. 23 5.4.4 Desk-Top Hazard Profiling .................................................................................................... 24 5.4.5 GIS Based Hazard Profiling .................................................................................................. 25 5.4.6 Finalizing the Hazard Profile ................................................................................................. 25
5.5 Vulnerability Indices and Mapping ...................................................................................... 26 5.5.1 General Vulnerability Description .......................................................................................... 26 5.5.2 Vulnerability Rating: Combined Land Cover / Land Use Data Layer .................................... 26 5.5.3 Vulnerability Rating: Socio-Economic Ward Profiles ............................................................ 27 5.5.4 Finalizing the Vulnerability Profile ......................................................................................... 28
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Draft Report Page iv
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final February 2010
5.6 Resilience Indices and Mapping ......................................................................................... 28 5.6.1 Resilience Profiling through Stakeholder Consultation ......................................................... 28 5.6.2 GIS Based Resilience Profiling ............................................................................................. 29 5.6.3 Finalizing the Resilience Profile ............................................................................................ 31
5.7 Risk Profiling and Rating ..................................................................................................... 32 5.7.1 Interpreting the Results ......................................................................................................... 32
5.8 Assumptions and Limitations .............................................................................................. 33 5.8.1 Data Limitations and Challenges .......................................................................................... 33 5.8.2 Limitations and Challenges to the Methodology ................................................................... 34
6 Status Quo Assessment of the NMBM ................. ............................................. 35
6.1 Geographical Setting ........................................................................................................... 36
6.2 Weather and Climate ........................................................................................................... 36
6.3 Natural Environment ............................................................................................................ 39 6.3.1 Coastline and Marine Environmental .................................................................................... 39 6.3.2 Biodiversity ............................................................................................................................ 41
6.4 Built Environment ................................................................................................................ 42 6.4.1 Land-use Trends ................................................................................................................... 42
6.5 Population and Socio-Economic Characteristics ................................................................ 43 6.5.1 Provincial Socio-Economic Trends ....................................................................................... 43 6.5.2 Population ............................................................................................................................. 44 6.5.3 Education .............................................................................................................................. 46 6.5.4 Employment .......................................................................................................................... 47 6.5.5 Household Income ................................................................................................................ 47
6.6 Industrial and Economic Activities....................................................................................... 49 6.6.1 Sectoral Contribution ............................................................................................................. 49 6.6.2 Economy ............................................................................................................................... 49 6.6.3 Tourism ................................................................................................................................. 51 6.6.4 Mineral Resources and Mining .............................................................................................. 51
6.7 Housing and Service Delivery ............................................................................................. 51 6.7.1 Housing ................................................................................................................................. 52 6.7.2 Water ..................................................................................................................................... 54 6.7.3 Energy ................................................................................................................................... 57 6.7.4 Sanitation .............................................................................................................................. 58 6.7.5 Health .................................................................................................................................... 60 6.7.6 Waste Management .............................................................................................................. 61 6.7.7 Safety and security ................................................................................................................ 66
6.8 Infrastructure ........................................................................................................................ 68 6.8.1 Roads .................................................................................................................................... 68
6.9 Facilities ............................................................................................................................... 69 6.9.1 Education Facilities ............................................................................................................... 69 6.9.2 Community Facilities ............................................................................................................. 69
6.10 The IDP and Disaster Management .................................................................................... 70 6.10.1 Key IDP Priorities in the NMBM ............................................................................................ 70 6.10.2 IDP Five Year Performance Plan .......................................................................................... 70
7 Hazard Profile .................................... .................................................................. 77
7.1 Transport Hazards ............................................................................................................... 77 7.1.1 Air Transportation .................................................................................................................. 77 7.1.2 Rail Transportation ................................................................................................................ 79 7.1.3 Road Transportation ............................................................................................................. 80 7.1.4 Water Transportation ............................................................................................................ 83
7.2 Civil Unrest .......................................................................................................................... 85 7.2.1 Demonstrations / Riots .......................................................................................................... 85 7.2.2 Refugees, Displaced People and Illegal Immigration ........................................................... 86 7.2.3 Xenophobic Violence ............................................................................................................ 88 7.2.4 Terrorism ............................................................................................................................... 90 7.2.5 Armed Conflict (Civil/Political War) ....................................................................................... 92 7.2.6 Crime ..................................................................................................................................... 92
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Draft Report Page v
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final February 2010
7.3 Environmental Degradation ................................................................................................. 96 7.3.1 Deforestation ......................................................................................................................... 98 7.3.2 Erosion .................................................................................................................................. 98 7.3.3 Land Degradation ................................................................................................................ 100 7.3.4 Loss of Biodiversity ............................................................................................................. 103
7.4 Disease / Health - Disease: Animal................................................................................... 104
7.5 Disease / Health - Disease: Human .................................................................................. 105 7.5.1 HIV/AIDS ............................................................................................................................. 106 7.5.2 TB, MBR-TD and XDR-TB .................................................................................................. 109 7.5.3 Other Diseases .................................................................................................................... 113
7.6 Disease / Health - Disease: Plants.................................................................................... 115
7.7 Fire Hazards ...................................................................................................................... 115 7.7.1 Veld, Forest Fires and Wild Fire .......................................................................................... 115 7.7.2 Formal & Informal Settlements / Urban Fires ...................................................................... 118
7.8 Floods (River, Urban & Dam Failure) ................................................................................ 121 7.8.1 River & Urban Flooding ....................................................................................................... 122 7.8.2 Dam Failure Flooding .......................................................................................................... 123
7.9 Geological Hazards ........................................................................................................... 124 7.9.1 Earthquake .......................................................................................................................... 125 7.9.2 Landslides/Mud flows/Rock-fall and Subsidence ................................................................ 129
7.10 Hydro-meteorological Hazards .......................................................................................... 131 7.10.1 Drought ................................................................................................................................ 132 7.10.2 Severe Storms (Wind, Hail, Lightning, Fog) ........................................................................ 134 7.10.3 Desertification ...................................................................................................................... 139 7.10.4 Extreme Temperatures ....................................................................................................... 139
7.11 Hazardous Material (Spill / Release / Fire / Explosion) .................................................... 141
7.12 Infestations ........................................................................................................................ 144 7.12.1 Plant Infestations (Intruder Plants) ...................................................................................... 144 7.12.2 Other Infestation Hazards ................................................................................................... 146
7.13 Infrastructure Failure / Service Delivery Failure ................................................................ 146 7.13.1 Electrical .............................................................................................................................. 147 7.13.2 Information Technology ....................................................................................................... 148 7.13.3 Sanitation ............................................................................................................................ 148 7.13.4 Transport ............................................................................................................................. 149 7.13.5 Gas ...................................................................................................................................... 149 7.13.6 Water ................................................................................................................................... 149
7.14 Major Event Hazards ......................................................................................................... 150
7.15 Pollution ............................................................................................................................. 151 7.15.1 Air Pollution ......................................................................................................................... 152 7.15.2 Land Pollution ...................................................................................................................... 153 7.15.3 Water Pollution (Fresh and Sea) ......................................................................................... 153
7.16 Structural Failure ............................................................................................................... 154
7.17 Oceanographic .................................................................................................................. 155 7.17.1 Tsunami ............................................................................................................................... 155 7.17.2 Sea Level Rise (Climate Change) ....................................................................................... 156 7.17.3 Storm Surge ........................................................................................................................ 157
7.18 Climate Change ................................................................................................................. 158
7.19 Astrophysical Hazards ....................................................................................................... 165 7.19.1 Space weather .................................................................................................................... 165 7.19.2 Meteorite impacts ................................................................................................................ 166
8 Vulnerability Profile of the NMBM ................. .................................................. 167
8.1 Vulnerability Considerations in NMBM .............................................................................. 168
8.2 Vulnerability (Land Cover/Use Ratings) ............................................................................ 171
8.3 Vulnerability (Socio-economic Profiles) ............................................................................ 171
9 Resilience Profile of the NMBM .................... ................................................... 175
9.1 Description of Resilience Role Players ............................................................................. 175 9.1.1 Beach office ......................................................................................................................... 175 9.1.2 Business and the Chamber of Commerce .......................................................................... 176
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Draft Report Page vi
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final February 2010
9.1.3 Community Representatives ............................................................................................... 176 9.1.4 Healthcare related Representatives .................................................................................... 177 9.1.5 Department of Home Affairs ................................................................................................ 179 9.1.6 Department of Water Affairs ................................................................................................ 180 9.1.7 Disaster Management ......................................................................................................... 180 9.1.8 Electricity Department ......................................................................................................... 181 9.1.9 Fire Service ......................................................................................................................... 181 9.1.10 Housing ............................................................................................................................... 182 9.1.11 Traffic Department............................................................................................................... 184 9.1.12 Nelson Mandela Municipality (climate change) ................................................................... 184 9.1.13 Non Governmental Organizations ....................................................................................... 184 9.1.14 Representative from Airport / ACSA ................................................................................... 185 9.1.15 Representatives from Industry & Waste Management Companies .................................... 185 9.1.16 South African Maritime Safety Authority (SAMSA) ............................................................. 187 9.1.17 South African National Defence Force ................................................................................ 189 9.1.18 South African Police Service ............................................................................................... 189 9.1.19 Weather Services ................................................................................................................ 191
9.2 Stakeholder Resilience Profile .......................................................................................... 191
9.3 GIS based Resilience mapping for the NMBM ................................................................. 193
9.4 Resilience factors for Wards in the NMBM ....................................................................... 195
10 Risk Assessment and Modelling Results ............. .......................................... 197
10.1 Prioritised Risk Profile ....................................................................................................... 197
11 Conclusions and Main Findings ..................... ................................................. 198
11.1 Comparison with Previous Disaster Risk Assessment ..................................................... 200
12 Recommendations and Action Plan ................... ............................................. 202
13 References and Data Sources ....................... .................................................. 203
Annexure A – Hazard Categories and Listing ........ ..................................................... 207
Annexure B – GIS RHVMC Modelling & Buffer Guideline s ........................................ 208
Annexure C – Consultation & Workshop Data Collectio n Sheets ............................. 209
Annexure D – Risk Reduction Measures .............. ....................................................... 210
Annexure E – Workshop Attendance Register ......... ................................................... 211
Annexure F – Hazard Maps .......................... ................................................................. 212
Annexure G – Vulnerability Map .................... ............................................................... 213
Annexure H – Resilience Map ....................... ................................................................ 214
Annexure I – Ward Based Risk Maps ................. .......................................................... 215
Annexure J – Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for the NMBM ........................ 216
Annexure K – Electronic Copy of Report and Project Data ....................................... 217
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Draft Report Page vii
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final February 2010
List of Tables
Table 1-1: Prioritized Risk Ratings for the NMBM. ................................................................... xiii Table 2-1: Requirements related to Disaster Risk Assessments ............................................... 3 Table 4-1: Typical Spatial and Non-Spatial Data used in Disaster Risk Assessments ............. 7 Table 4-2: Information Captured on the Individual Stakeholder Consultations (Industries) .... 10 Table 4-3: Information collected during Workshops and Stakeholder Consultations .............. 13 Table 5-1: Classification of Hazards according to the National Disaster Management
Framework ............................................................................................................... 21 Table 5-2: Hazards considered during the Disaster Risk Assessment .................................... 22 Table 5-3: Hazard Class Events ............................................................................................... 24 Table 5-4: Vulnerability Factors ................................................................................................ 27 Table 5-5: Resilience values used for Land-use/Land-cover resilience mapping. .................. 31 Table 5-6: Rating Classifications in Reporting Tables and Maps ............................................. 33 Table 6-1: IWMP Projects and Status. ...................................................................................... 65 Table 6-2: Road Categories in the NMBM. ............................................................................... 68 Table 7-1: Air Transportation Hazard Statistics ........................................................................ 78 Table 7-2: Rail Transportation Hazard Statistics ...................................................................... 79 Table 7-3: Road Transportation Hazard Statistics .................................................................... 82 Table 7-4: Water Transportation Hazard Statistics ................................................................... 85 Table 7-5: Terrorism Hazard Statistics ..................................................................................... 91 Table 7-6: Ambulance Incident and Rescue Statistics related to Human Health and Disease
Hazards .................................................................................................................. 114 Table 7-7: Vegetation Fires Statistics ..................................................................................... 117 Table 7-8: Building, Informal Settlement and Rubbish Fires Statistics .................................. 119 Table 7-9: Fire Hazard Classification ...................................................................................... 120 Table 7-10: Historical Record of Seismic Activity in the vicinity of the NMBM ......................... 126 Table 7-11: Earthquake Probability (Fernandez and Guzman (1979a in ESKOM 2001)) ....... 128 Table 7-12: Drought hazard indicator ....................................................................................... 133 Table 7-13: Hazardous Material and Industrial Accident Events in the NMBM. ...................... 142 Table 7-14: Spillage Events in the NMBM. ............................................................................... 152 Table 7-15: Summary of impacts and possible mitigation measures ....................................... 164 Table 8-1: Socio Economic Vulnerability Indicator ................................................................. 172 Table 9-1: Results of Self-evaluation: Beach Office ............................................................... 175 Table 9-2: Function of Community members and Authorities ................................................ 177 Table 9-3: Results of Self-evaluation: Community Representatives ...................................... 177 Table 9-4: Results of Self-evaluation: Health Related Role Players ...................................... 178 Table 9-5: Results of Self-evaluation: Disaster Management ................................................ 180 Table 9-6: Results of Self-evaluation: Electricity .................................................................... 181 Table 9-7: Results of Self-evaluation: Fire Services............................................................... 182 Table 9-8: Results of Self-evaluation: NMBM (Climate) ......................................................... 184 Table 9-9: Results of Self-evaluation: Non-Governmental Organizations ............................. 185 Table 9-10: Results of Self-evaluation: Airport / ACSA ............................................................ 185 Table 9-11: Results of Self-evaluation: Industry ....................................................................... 186 Table 9-12: Results of Self-evaluation: SAMSA ....................................................................... 188 Table 9-13: Results of Self-evaluation: South African National Defence Force ...................... 189 Table 9-14: Average Resilience ratings: SAWS ....................................................................... 191 Table 9-15: Average Resilience ratings from Stakeholder Consultations ................................ 192 Table 10-1: Prioritized Risk Ratings for the NMBM .................................................................. 197
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Draft Report Page viii
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final February 2010
List of Figures
Figure 2-1: Location of the NMBM Municipality ................. ...................................................... 1
Figure 5-1: Relationship of Hazard, Vulnerability, Resilience a nd Risk levels ................... 17
Figure 5-2: Data Layers to be used in the Disaster Risk Modelin g ...................................... 18
Figure 5-3: Directory structure for the digital data for the pr oject ....................................... 20
Figure 5-4: Hazard Categories ................................. ................................................................. 21
Figure 5-5: Calculation of Indicative Hazard Values based on St akeholder Inputs ........... 24
Figure 5-6: Hazard Assessment and Reporting Approach .......... ......................................... 25
Figure 5-7: Vulnerability Assessment and Reporting Approach ... ....................................... 28
Figure 5-8: Resilience mapping based on location of Fire Statio ns in the NMBM. ............ 30
Figure 5-9: Resilience Assessment and Reporting Approach for th e NMBM ..................... 32
Figure 6-1: NMBM Locality Map ................................. ............................................................... 35
Figure 6-2: Temperatures in the NMBM .......................... ......................................................... 37
Figure 6-3: Rainfall in the NMBM .............................. ................................................................ 38
Figure 6-4: Annual Average Rainfall in the NMBM ............... .................................................. 38
Figure 6-5: Wind rose for Port Elizabeth ...................... ........................................................... 39
Figure 6-6: Comparison of Population on Metropolitan Level .... .......................................... 44
Figure 6-7: Comparison of Population on Provincial Level ...... ............................................ 44
Figure 6-8: Population Density in the NMBM .................... ...................................................... 45
Figure 6-9: Age Distribution (Comparison) ..................... ........................................................ 46
Figure 6-10: Level of Education in the NMBM..................... ...................................................... 47
Figure 6-11: Annual Household Income ........................... ......................................................... 48
Figure 6-12: Annual Household Income (Comparison) .............. ............................................. 48
Figure 6-13: Sectoral Contribution to GGVA ..................... ........................................................ 49
Figure 6-14: Distribution of Dwelling type in the NMBM. ........ ................................................ 52
Figure 6-15: Type of Main Dwelling ............................. ............................................................... 53
Figure 6-16: Type of Main Dwelling (Comparison) ................ ................................................... 53
Figure 6-17: Access to Water ................................... ................................................................... 54
Figure 6-18: Access to Water (Comparison) ...................... ....................................................... 54
Figure 6-19: Energy for Cooking and Heating in the NMBM ........ ........................................... 57
Figure 6-20: Energy for Cooking (Comparison) ................... .................................................... 57
Figure 6-21: Access to Toilet Facilities in the NMBM ........... ................................................... 59
Figure 6-22: Access to Toilet Facilities (Comparison) .......... ................................................... 59
Figure 6-23: Refuse Removal .................................... .................................................................. 64
Figure 6-24: Refuse Removal (Comparison) ....................... ...................................................... 64
Figure 7-1: Air Transport Hazard in the NMBM .................. ..................................................... 79
Figure 7-2: Number of Vehicle involved in Fatal Crashes in the Eastern Cape .................. 80
Figure 7-3: Number of Fatalities per Type of Vehicle in the Eas tern Cape ......................... 81
Figure 7-4: Road and Rail Transport Hazard .................... ....................................................... 83
Figure 7-5: Vessels Transfer Zones in the NMBM ................ .................................................. 84
Figure 7-6: UNHCR Country Operations Profile – South Africa ... ........................................ 87
Figure 7-7: Terrorism Threat Conditions ....................... .......................................................... 91
Figure 7-8: Selected Crime Levels in the NMBM ................. ................................................... 94
Figure 7-9: Total murder and population levels for selected are as in the NMBM .............. 95
Figure 7-10: Civil unrest hazard ............................... ................................................................... 96
Figure 7-11: Distribution of land degradation based on Combined Degradation Index. ... 101
Figure 7-12: Land use in coastal Metropolitan and District Munic ipalities. ........................ 102
Figure 7-13: Estuary health in South Africa. ................... ........................................................ 103
Figure 7-14: Environmental Degradation Hazard .................. ................................................. 104
Figure 7-15: Animal Disease Hazard ............................. ........................................................... 105
Figure 7-16: Life expectancy of South Africans, 1950 – 2005 .... ........................................... 107
Figure 7-17: HIV prevalence among antenatal clinic attendees in South Africa ................ 107
Figure 7-18: HIV Antenatal Survey Prevalence by District: Easter n Cape (2006) ............... 108
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Draft Report Page ix
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final February 2010
Figure 7-19: HIV Antenatal Survey Prevalence by District: Easter n Cape (2006) ............... 108
Figure 7-20: Total XDR-TB cases reported in the period 2004 – 20 07 in South Africa ...... 110
Figure 7-21: Total XDR-TB cases reported in the period 2004 – 20 07 in South Africa ...... 112
Figure 7-22: Human Disease Hazard .............................. .......................................................... 114
Figure 7-23: Municipalities classified according to levels of ve ld fire risk (April 2003) .... 116
Figure 7-24: Fire Hazard ....................................... ..................................................................... 121
Figure 7-25: Flood Hazard ...................................... ................................................................... 124
Figure 7-26: Geological Hazards ................................ .............................................................. 130
Figure 7-27: Drought hazard .................................... ................................................................. 134
Figure 7-28: Patterns of Risk to Severe Storms in the Eastern Ca pe .................................. 136
Figure 7-29: Severe Storms hazard .............................. ............................................................ 137
Figure 7-30: Global Mean Temperature Anomaly (1995 – 2004) ..... ...................................... 140
Figure 7-31: Hazardous Material hazard ......................... ......................................................... 143
Figure 7-32: Percentage cover by alien invasive plants per quate rnary catchment .......... 145
Figure 7-33: Potential Distribution of Alien Invasive Plant Spec ies .................................... 145
Figure 7-34: Plant Infestation Hazard .......................... ............................................................. 146
Figure 7-35: Infrastructure Failure Hazard ..................... ......................................................... 150
Figure 7-36: Major Events Hazard ............................... ............................................................. 151
Figure 7-37: Air, Land and Water pollution Hazard .............. .................................................. 153
Figure 7-38: Structural Failure Hazard ......................... ............................................................ 154
Figure 7-39: Tsunami Hazard for the NMBM ....................... .................................................... 156
Figure 7-40: Storm Surge Hazard in the NMBM .................... .................................................. 158
Figure 7-41: Projected temperature and precipitation changes for Africa .......................... 159
Figure 7-42: Regional scale projected precipitation change ..... ........................................... 160
Figure 7-43: Observed and projected (SRES A1B scenario) sea leve l rise ......................... 161
Figure 7-44: Illustration of temperature rise and sea level rise continuing long after reduction of CO2 emissions to a neutral level ..... .................................................... 162
Figure 7-45: (a) Results of climatic model where 0=unsuitable cl imate for malarial vectors and 1=suitable climate and (b) Historical malaria r isk areas in South Africa and Namibia and annual malaria cases per district in Bo tswana. ................................ 163
Figure 8-1: Distribution of Poverty across South Africa showing the Ten Poorest Municipalities .................................... ........................................................................... 167
Figure 8-2: Poverty Indicators by Province .................... ....................................................... 168
Figure 8-3: NMBM Land Use Vulnerability ....................... ..................................................... 171
Figure 8-4: Census Vulnerability Indicator .................... ........................................................ 174
Figure 9-1: Location of Healthcare related facilities in the NM BM ..................................... 178
Figure 9-2: Average Resilience Ratings for Health Services .... .......................................... 179
Figure 9-3: Location of Fire Stations in the NMBM ............. ................................................. 182
Figure 9-4: Location of Police Stations in the NMBM ........... ............................................... 190
Figure 9-5: Average Resilience Rating for the NMBM role players .................................... 192
Figure 9-6: Resilience mapping based on location of key facilit ies in the NMBM. .......... 193
Figure 9-7: Resilience mapping based on Land-use / Land-cover i n the NMBM. ............ 194
Figure 9-8: Resilience levels in the NMBM. .................... ....................................................... 195
Figure 9-9: Average Resilience Level per Ward ................. .................................................. 196
Figure 11-1: Comparison between the prioritized risk ratings of the 2005 and the 2010 Disaster Risk Assessment for the NMBM. ............ .................................................... 201
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Draft Report Page x
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final February 2010
Glossary
AIDS: Acquired Immune Deficiency/Immunodeficiency Syndrome
C: Capacity
CFR: Cape Floristic Region
CME: Coronal Mass Ejections
DEAT: Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism
DM: Disaster Management
DMC: Disaster Management Centre
DMO: Disaster Management Officer
DMP: Disaster Management Plan
DRA: Disaster Risk Assessment
DRM: Disaster Risk Management
EMS (1): Emergency Management Services
EMS (2): Emergency Medical Services
ERM: Enterprise Risk Management
FET: Further Education and Training
FIFA: Fédération Internationale de Football Association
(International Federation of Association Football)
GDP: Gross Domestic Product
GGVA: Geographical Growth Value Add
GIS: Geographical Information Systems
GPSDM: Green Paper on Disaster Management
H: Hazard
HAZMAT: Hazardous Materials
HIV: Human Immunodeficiency Virus
HVMCR: Hazard, Vulnerability, Manageability, Capacity & Risk
HVRes: Hazard, Vulnerability & Resilience
I: Impact
ICSU: International Council for Science
ICV: Incident Command Vehicle
IDP: Integrated Development Plan
IDPs: Internally Displaced Persons
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Draft Report Page xi
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final June 2009
IMS: Internet mapping system
KPAs: Key Performance Areas
KPIs: Key Performance Indicators
MSF: Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders)
LM: Local Municipality
M: Manageability
MHI: Major Hazardous Installations
MDMC: Municipal Disaster Management Centre
MVA(s): Motor Vehicle Accident(s)
NDMC: National Disaster Management Centre
NDMF: National Disaster Management Framework
NGO: Non-Governmental Organisation
NMBM: Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality
NSoER: National State of the Environment Report
NSRI: National Sea Rescue Institute
PDMC: Provincial Disaster Management Centre
PSC: Project Steering Committee
R: Risk
RHVMC: Risk, Hazard, Vulnerability, Manageability, Capacity
SANDF: South African National Defence Force
SAPS: South African Police Service
SAWS: South African Weather Services
SDF: Spatial Development Framework
SDR: Service Delivery Region
SOP: Standard Operating Procedures
SRK: SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd
TB: Tuberculosis
UNHCR: United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
V: Vulnerability
WMO: World Meteorological Organisation
WHO: World Health Organisation
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Draft Report Page xii
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final June 2009
Executive Summary
The Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality (NMBM) appointed SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd (SRK) to
conduct a Disaster Risk Assessment (DRA) and develop Disaster Risk Reduction and Contingency
Plans for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality.
This report presents a description of the Disaster Risk Assessment process conducted for the
NMBM, as well as the associated results, conclusions and recommendations of the assessment.
Summary of principal objectives
The objective of this project includes:
• Conducting a Disaster Risk Assessment for the NMBM;
• Creation of two Contingency Plans, including Risk Reduction Plans for two prioritized
risks: Floods and Transportation of Hazardous Materials; and
• Compiling a Disaster Management Plan.
Outline of work program relevant to this report
The project included the following main activities relevant to this report:
• Phase 1– Preparation
o Review of existing status and plans of the NMBM, including assessing the latest Integrated Developed Plan (IDP), etc.
• Phase 2 – Disaster Risk Assessment o Spatial and Non-Spatial Data Collection;
o Setting of Standards & Guidelines for DRA;
o Preparation of Base maps, Data collection sheets and Database for Key Stakeholder
Consultations;
o Key Stakeholder Consultation and HAZMAT Investigation;
o Creation of Maps and Data Collection Sheets for Workshops;
o Capacity Building and Community Participation workshops;
o Capturing of Data in GIS & Risk Modelling;
o Creation of HVMCR Maps and Disaster Risk Profiles;
o Recommendations on Risk Reduction activities;
o Compilation of Draft Disaster Risk Assessment Report;
o Workshop on Draft DRA Report;
o Circulation of Draft Report;
o Updating and Delivery of Final Report.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Draft Report Page xiii
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final June 2009
Overview of Results of the Disaster Risk Assessment
The risk profile for the NMBM is based on the data received from the workshop consultations, as
well as the base data (including reports) collected during the study. The stakeholder perception data
and local resilience data were compared with the desktop hazard assessment results, and the hazard
severity value was adopted. The Risk Prioritization for the NMBM is shown below:
Table 1-1: Prioritized Risk Ratings for the NMBM.
Hazard Name Prioritized Risk Ratings
Hydro-meteorological Hazards - Floods (River, Urban & Dam Failure) 0.85
Hazardous Material - Hazmat: Fire/Explosion (Storage & Transportation) 0.85
Hazardous Material - Hazmat: Spill/Release (Storage & Transportation) 0.82
Hydro-meteorological Hazards - Severe Storms (Wind, Hail, Snow, Lightning, Fog) 0.81
Disease / Health - Disease: Human 0.78
Hydro-meteorological - Drought 0.78
Environmental Degradation 0.76
Fire Hazards - Formal & Informal Settlements / Urban Area 0.76
Fire Hazards - Veld/Forest Fires 0.73
Pollution - Water Pollution (Fresh and Sea) 0.72
Major Event Hazards (Cultural, Religious, Political, Recreational, Commercial, Sport) 0.71
Oceanographic - Storm Surge 0.71
Transport Hazards - Road Transportation 0.70
Civil Unrest - Xenophobic Violence 0.69
Structural Failure 0.68
Pollution - Land Pollution 0.68
Civil Unrest - Terrorism 0.67
Oceanographic - Sea Level Rise (Climate Change) 0.67
Pollution - Air Pollution 0.65
Civil Unrest - Demonstrations / Riots 0.65
Oceanographic - Tsunami 0.65
Transport Hazards - Rail Transportation 0.64
Infrastructure Failure / Service Delivery Failure 0.64
Civil Unrest - Armed Conflict (Civil/Political War) 0.61
Disease / Health - Disease: Animal 0.61
Geological Hazards - Earthquake 0.60
Transport Hazards - Air Transportation 0.58
Transport Hazards - Water Transportation 0.57
Civil Unrest - Refugees / Displaced People 0.51
Infestations - Plant Infestations (Intruder Plants) 0.44
Disease / Health - Disease: Plants 0.41
Radio Active Fall-out NA
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Draft Report Page xiv
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final June 2009
Conclusions and Findings
This report includes the final findings of the disaster risk assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay
Municipality. The main findings were:
i. The highest rated risks in the municipality were identified as Hydro-meteorological Risks (Floods and Storms) and Hazardous Material Risks (Spill/Release & Fire/Explosion).
ii. Hydro-meteorological Risks: Risks associated with climatic conditions have long been a
problem in the NMBM, and extreme weather events have been part of regular burdens that
communities in the NMBM have had to learn to live with. However, uncertainty with
regards to changing weather patterns (which may lead to even more high intensity events)
and continued urbanisation has highlighted the need for decisive action with regard to
managing risks associated with floods and severe storms in the NMBM.
iii. Hazardous Material Risks: Due to the prominent role that the manufacturing sector and
industry plays in the NMBM, as well as the movement of hazardous material through the
NMBM (from the harbours and industries), the NMBM can be considered to be at high risk
to hazards associated with hazardous material. This risk relates to fires, explosions and
accidental spill or release of hazardous material both on-site, and during road or rail
transportation. A hazardous material disaster can have a severe impact on the NMBM
community, causing structural damage, injuries or fatalities, environmental degradation and
even displacement of individuals.
iv. Human Disease Hazards, especially challenges associated with HIV/AIDS poses an
enormous challenge to the Eastern Cape, as well as to the NMBM. HIV/AIDS not only has
a serious impact on the infected individual, but also has numerous secondary impacts on
affected communities, including decreased productivity of workers, increased absenteeism
and additional costs of training new workers. It also represents a greater demand and
pressure on health facilities. Another serious impact related to HIV/AIDS is the problem
associated with orphans and child headed households. HIV/AIDS therefore not only has the
direct consequence of reduction in health, or loss of life, but the secondary effects can
further increase the vulnerability of communities to other non-related hazards. Other
diseases included under the human health and disease category includes Tuberculosis (TB).
v. Other top rated risks in the NMBM include:
• Hydro-meteorological – Drought;
• Environmental Degradation; and
• Fire Hazards - Formal & Informal Settlements / Urban Area.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Draft Report Page xv
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final June 2009
Recommendations
The recommendations based on the results of the Risk Assessment include the following proposed
actions and projects:
• The completion of a detailed HAZMAT risk assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay
Municipality;
• The establishment / expansion of a HAZMAT working group or advisory committee in the
Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality;
• The completion of a health related needs and vulnerability assessment for the Nelson
Mandela Bay Municipality;
• The completion of a detailed drought risk assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay
Municipality;
• The implementation / establishment of a Comprehensive Information Management System
that can be used for the capturing of information with regards to incidents in the NMBM.
• Detailed flood line delineations and assessments related to the impact of storm and tidal
surges and sea level rise on the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality;
• Development of a Flood Hazard Management System for the Nelson Mandela Bay
Municipality; and
• The development of contingency plans for the remaining disaster risks.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Draft Report Page 1
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final February 2010
Suite 47, Rynlal Building 320 The Hillside, Lynnwood, 0081, Pretoria South Africa P.O. Box 35290 Menlo Park 0102 South Africa Tel: +27 (0)12 361 9821
Fax: +27 (0)12 361 9912
March 2010
1 Introduction The Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality (NMBM) appointed SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd (SRK) to
conduct a Disaster Risk Assessment (DRA) and develop Disaster Risk Reduction and Contingency
Plans for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality.
This report presents a description of the Disaster Risk Assessment process conducted for the
NMBM, as well as the associated results, conclusions and recommendations of the assessment.
2 Background and Brief 2.1 Geographical Setting
The Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality is located to the south-east of the Cacadu District, in the
south-western region of the Eastern Cape Province.
Figure 2-1: Location of the NMBM Municipality
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 2
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
2.2 The context of Disaster Risk Management in the NMBM
The NMBM Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Policy Framework describes the context of DRM in
the NMBM as follows:
“The area of the NMBM is constantly threatened by hazards of natural, technological and
environmental origin. It is increasingly exposed to the devastating effects of a range of severe hydro
meteorological events including severe storms; floods; severe winds; and veld fires. The incidence of
epidemic diseases of biological origin affecting humans has also shown an increase in recent years.
Due to the highly industrialized economic activity which takes place in the metropole, industrial
hazards including hazardous materials spillages; explosions; industrial fires; as well as the ensuing
risk of air and water pollution continue to pose major challenges. The effects of global warming and
the threats posed by a rise in sea levels on the coastline; as well as the possibility of the secondary
effects of predicted seismic activity in the oceans to the east which could have significant impact on
the Algoa Bay area, cannot be ignored. The risk of major air and road traffic accidents cannot be
ruled out due to the fact that the Port Elizabeth Airport is located within the residential area close to
critical lifeline infrastructure; and that national roads traverse the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipal
area. The extensive port activities taking place in the Port Elizabeth harbour and the Port of Gqurha
pose very specific threats to both the economic and environmental well being of the Nelson Mandela
Bay Municipal area as a whole.” The aim of this DRA report is to further investigate these risks,
and to identify contributing risk factors, and possible risk reduction and management initiatives.
2.3 Background and objectives
The Disaster Management Act (Act 57 of 2002) as well as the National Disaster Management
Framework (2005), requires that Municipalities conduct disaster risk assessments for their area of
jurisdiction. The main aim of this project was to conduct a comprehensive disaster risk assessment,
as well as the development of disaster risk reduction contingency plans for the Nelson Mandela Bay
Municipality. A Disaster Risk Assessment (DRA) was conducted for the NMBM in 2005. The
results of the previous assessment was also taken into account and expanded upon in this assessment.
The main objective of the Disaster Risk Assessment was to provide the NMBM with relevant
information to enable and support the required disaster risk reduction planning and activities
undertaken by the Municipality. The required information includes information related to the levels
of disaster risks, hazards, vulnerabilities, manageability, and capacities (RHVMC) within the area of
jurisdiction of the NMBM. The deliverables also included suitable rating, mapping and
prioritization of the RHVMC levels for the NMBM.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 3
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
2.4 Requirements in terms of Disaster Risk Assessme nts
Disaster Risk Assessments are a requirement as stipulated in the guiding documents with regards to
Disaster Management in South Africa, including the Disaster Management Act and the National
Disaster Management Framework (2005) (NDMF). These two documents also outline certain
requirements with regards to Disaster Risk Assessments. Below is a summary of the requirements
related to Disaster Risk Assessments, as well as how the DRA methodology ensured that these
requirements were met by the approach followed in this assessment.
Table 2-1: Requirements related to Disaster Risk As sessments
Requirement Section
NDMF:
2.3 Monitoring, updating and disseminating disaster risk information
• Available statistics were included in the assessment.
• Findings from the previous assessment were
considered during this assessment.
• Where appropriate, recommendations for improvement
of risk information are made.
Act:
47. (1) A municipal disaster management centre, to the extent that it
has the capacity, must give guidance to organs of state, the private
sector, non-governmental organisations, communities and individuals
in the municipal area to assess and prevent or reduce the risk of
disasters, including-
(a) ways and means of-
(i) determining levels of risk;
(ii) assessing the vulnerability of communities and households to
disasters that may occur;
(iii) increasing the capacity of communities and households to
minimise the risk and impact of disasters that may occur: and
(iv) monitoring the likelihood of, and the state of alertness to.
disasters that may occur;
These aspects are considered in this report.
Act:
Section 52: Preparation of disaster management plans by municipal
entities
This document only addresses the methodology and results
of the disaster risk assessment. However, the project also
covers disaster management planning (see other
deliverables of this project)
Integration of Disaster Management Plan with IDP
This disaster risk assessment includes an assessment of the
priorities of the NMBM IDP in terms of Disaster
Management. The main recommendations of the DRA will
be presented in a suitable format to be included in the IDP.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 4
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Requirement Section
The Act (Section 53 2) e)
• A disaster management plan for a municipal area must form an
integral part of the municipality’s integrated development plan;
• anticipate the types of disaster that are likely to occur in the
municipal area and their possible effects;
• place emphasis on measures that reduce the vulnerability of
disaster-prone areas, communities and households;
…
identify the areas, communities or households at risk;
identification of areas, communities or households at risk: state in this
methodology at which scale/level the assessment is done.
Reduction measures are be included in the
recommendations.
The methodology allows for the identification of
communities and households at risk.
Act: Section 53 2) f)
take into account indigenous knowledge relating to disaster
management
Indigenous knowledge was collected through the
consultation process.
Section 53 4) requires consultation with neighbouring municipalities
Representatives from neighbouring municipalities were
invited to the consultation workshops. Characteristics of
neighbouring municipalities are discussed in the Status Quo
assessment.
NDMF:
Key performance area 2, section 2.1: identification of stakeholders.
List of stakeholders invited to workshops and consultations
are in line with requirements of members of the DMAF.
NDMF:
Section 2.1.1.1: The framework specifically refers to events of
frequency/seasonality, and scale/magnitude, speed of onset, affected
area and duration
These characteristics of the hazards were taken into account
in the DRA.
NDMF:
The risk assessment must include: setting priorities for action to be
taken
Priorities for action forms part of the recommendations.
NDMF:
Section 2.1.2: Identify if the risk is becoming more serious? This aspect is included in the assessment.
NDMF:
Section 2.1.3.5: link the risk assessment with the disaster risk
management planning
Reduction measures and risk management planning are
included in the recommendations.
NDMF:
Section 2.1.4: Community-based disaster risk assessment
Community-based disaster risk assessment was not part of
this project’s scope. Representatives of communities were
invited to stakeholder consultations. Stakeholder
consultations and collection of indigenous knowledge was
included in this assessment.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 5
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
3 Work Program 3.1 Work program relevant to this report
The principal stages of the project were as follows:
• Phase 1– Preparation
o Review of existing status and plans of the NMBM, including assessing latest IDP, etc.
• Phase 2 – Disaster Risk Assessment o Spatial and Non-Spatial Data Collection;
o Setting of Standards & Guidelines for DRA;
o Preparation of Base maps, Data collection sheets and Database for Key Stakeholder
Consultations;
o Key Stakeholder Consultation and HAZMAT Investigation;
o Creation of Maps and Data Collection Sheets for Workshops;
o Capacity Building and Community Participation workshops;
o Capturing of Data in GIS & Risk Modelling;
o Creation of HVMCR Maps and Disaster Risk Profiles;
o Recommendations on Risk Reduction activities;
o Compilation of Draft Disaster Risk Assessment Report;
o Workshop on Draft DRA Report;
o Circulation of Draft Report; and
o Updating and Delivery of Final Report.
The Disaster Risk Assessment was conducted during Phase 2, and the methodology is discussed in more detail in Section 4 of this report.
The final deliverables of the project are:
• Project Plan; • Record of Community Engagement activities, including workshop attendance Registers;
• Hazard Maps, indicating the hazard levels of various hazards within the NMBM; • Vulnerability Maps indicating the vulnerability of communities to identified hazards
throughout the NMBM; • Resilience Maps illustrating information with regard to the identified Manageability and
Capacity levels throughout the NMBM; • Risk Maps and tables indicating the levels of risk of identified hazards throughout the
NMBM; • A Risk Reduction Plan and two (2) Contingency Plans (floods and transportation of
hazardous materials); and • A Disaster Management Plan with the above attached.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 6
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
3.2 Main Project team
The key project team consisted of the following persons:
Consultant’s Team
Matt Braune represented the partners of SRK Consulting and acted as the Project Director.
Andre Hindley acted as the overall Project Manager on behalf of SRK Consulting. He was also
responsible for specialist inputs on the project, as well as the compilation of the Disaster Risk
Reduction and Contingency Plans.
Martin Stols is a Scientist at SRK Consulting and was responsible for the GIS and Disaster Risk
Modelling component of the Project. Martin acted as a risk assessment specialist and was also
responsible for the creation of data layers, data rasterization and the risk modelling process.
Theuns van der Linde is a Scientist at SRK Consulting and acted as the project administrator and
risk assessment specialist. He was involved in abstraction of information from the workshop data
sheets as well as risk reporting.
Elias Sithole is a Director at Umata Development Solutions and acted as specialist facilitator during
the Stakeholder Consultations and Skills Transfer.
Sheldon Vandrey is a Geographical Information Systems (GIS) Technician. Sheldon was involved
in the local data collection and data management, as well as local coordination activities on the
project.
Maryna Storie is a Principal Consultant at ERM Southern Africa and acted as external reviewer on
this project. Maryna was involved in the first Disaster Risk Assessment that was conducted for the
NMBM in 2005.
NMBM Project Team:
Mr H Lansdown acted as the Project Management on behalf of the NMBM DMC.
Mr T Cameron is a DM Officer, and assistance with inputs and co-ordination as required by the
NMBM DMC.
NMBM DMC staff provided inputs and were capacitated on the project.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 7
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
4 Disaster Risk Assessment Methodology In order for the disaster risk assessment to provide valid results, the process needs to be based on
scientific principles and accurate information. The methodology followed during the Disaster Risk
Assessment process is discussed below:
4.1 Spatial and Non-Spatial Data Collection
Time frame: September 2009 – February 2010
The entire disaster risk assessment is based on, and requires specific data and information. This data
and information includes both spatial and non-spatial data as well as electronic and hard copy data.
Examples of typical spatial and non-spatial data are shown below:
Table 4-1: Typical Spatial and Non-Spatial Data use d in Disaster Risk Assessments
Types of Data Spatial Data Non-Spatial Data
Description of Data Spatial data relates to data that can be represented spatially.
This includes GIS Data as well as maps and drawings.
Non-Spatial data relates to data which is
not represented spatially. This includes
reports and statistics in tabular format.
Typical examples of
data to be used in Disaster Risk Assessments
• Infrastructure: Roads, Rail, Water and Sewerage
lines, Water and Sewerage Treatment works,
Reservoirs, Power lines and Power sub stations, Gas
or Petrol Pipelines, Airports, etc.;
• Land use and Land cover data: Classification of the
environment based on its use or physical
characteristics.
• Government Buildings and Critical Facilities: Key
Ministerial and Government Buildings, Government
Offices, Police Stations, Fire Stations, Hospitals,
Clinics, Schools, Location of all Government or
Council properties, Government warehouses and
storage areas.
• Other Buildings and Land-use data: Stadiums,
Sport fields, Waste and Landfill Sites, Surveyed Land-
parcels with land-use labels, etc.
• Administrative boundaries: Boundaries for the
District, Municipalities and Wards
• Cadastral data: Erven, Farms, Servitudes
• Topographic data: Rivers, Streams, Contours,
Dolomite and Undermined areas, flood lines, etc.
• Remote Sensing data: Aerial Photography or Satellite
Images.
• Statistical data: Demography, socio economical and
health related.
• Integrated Development Plans and Spatial Development Frameworks;
• Census Statistics;
• General statistics, including
Health, Crime, Rainfall, Floods,
Fire, etc.;
• Information on disaster management capacity; and
• Specific reports, including reports
of floods, drought, geological
problems, accidents, illegal
immigrants and refugees, major
hazardous installations and health.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 8
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
4.2 Setting of Standards & Guidelines for DRA
Timeframe: October 2009 – November 2009
During October and November 2009 the initial standards and guidelines with regard to the proposed
risk assessment methodology were compiled. These guidelines provided an overview of the
proposed disaster risk assessment process, and were presented to the Project PSC on 18 November
2009. The presented methodology served as guide for the risk assessment process
The standards and guidelines included:
• A description of the proposed methodology;
• A description of the proposed level of details, based on the available data;
• Risk Modelling and Mapping Guidelines; and
• Guidelines for the workshop and stakeholder consultation process.
During this phase, the clustering of wards for the Capacity Building and Community Participation
workshops (See Section 4.7) was to take place. This would have been required in order to identify
the focus areas for each of the workshops. However, it was decided by the PSC that a total of two
workshops would be held, and each of the workshops would focus on the entire municipality. The
first workshop was scheduled for representatives from municipal departments and line-functions,
while the second workshop was scheduled for representatives from the community, including
Community Development Workers and Councillors.
4.3 Preparation of Base maps, Data collection sheet s and Database for Key Stakeholder Consultations
Timeframe: October 2009
The collection of indigenous knowledge as well as specific disaster management related information
from representatives in the NMBM was required during the disaster risk assessment process. This
was done through various individual stakeholder consultation sessions and community participation
workshops. The first set of consultations involved key individual focus group discussions with
representatives from major industries in the NMBM.
In order to facilitate the consultation process and to collect and capture information in a suitable
format, it was necessary to create specific data collection base maps and sheets. These maps and
sheets were used during the consultations to capture collected information.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 9
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
4.4 Key Stakeholder Consultation (HAZMAT Investigat ion)
Timeframe: November 2009
Key stakeholder consultations with representatives from major industries in the NMBM were
conducted during November 2010. During these consultations, information with regards to the
facilities was collected by making use of the created data capturing sheets and maps. The data
capturing sheet provided for the collection of information shown in Table 4-2 below:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 10
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Table 4-2: Information Captured on the Individual S takeholder Consultations (Industries) Category Type of Information Category Type of Information
General
Information
• Name of Facility
• Category of Facility
o Major Hazardous Installation: y/n
o National Key Point: y/n
• Address of Facility
o Postal Address
o Physical Address
o Location of Facility (Grid Code)
• Contact details
o Title, Name & Surname
o Designation
o Telephone numbers (office and after hours)
o Cell phone numbers
o Fax numbers
o Email address
o Website
• Type of Operation and process at facility
• Information related to completed:
o Disaster Risk Assessments
o Enterprise Risk Assessments
o Response and Recovery Plans
o Mitigation Plans
Hazard Specific
Information
• On-site material
o Type and Quantity of on-site hazardous material
o Associated risks with on-site material
• Transportation of Material
o General considerations related to transportation of material
o Identification of mode and route of transportation, including road, rail, sea or
air.
o Routes followed
o Source and destination
• Information on previous hazardous material incidents
o Date
o Nature and description of event
o On- or off-site event
o Location of event (grid code)
o Effect of event on people, infrastructure, property, environment, etc.
o Cause of event
• Frequency of incidents/events, such as:
o Spills
o Explosions, and
o Fires
Resilience Information
• Self-evaluation of Facility’s Resources on a scale from 1 – 3.
o Staff
o Expertise
o Vehicles
o Equipment
o Funding
o Risk Reduction plans
o Response Plans
• Identification of challenges experienced by facility in terms of safety, security and
disaster management
• Greatest needs in terms of safety, security and disaster management
Other Information • Additional Comments, remarks or recommendations
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 11
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
A total of 11 representatives from industries in the NMBM were consulted. They included
representatives from Afrox, Bulk Oil Supplies, Cadbury, Fresh Produce Terminal, Rennies
Distribution, SAB, Umicore, Vita Foam, and Shell Aviation Jet A1 fuel depot.
Results of these consultations were incorporated into the Disaster Risk Profiling and are discussed in
Section 7.11.
4.5 Disaster Management Centre (DMC) arrange consul tation workshops
Timeframe: October 2009 – January 2010
The NMBM DMC arranged the Capacity Building and Community Participation workshops. The
aim of these workshops was to collect indigenous knowledge as well as disaster management related
information from various stakeholders and representatives in the NMBM.
Typical key stakeholders that were invited to the workshop included:
• The NMBM DMC staff;
• Ward and Portfolio Councillors; • Ward Committee Members;
• All Departmental Managers / Senior Representatives from each department; • Organized Business;
• Organized Labour; • Mining and Large Industry;
• Insurance Industry; • Representatives from Agricultural Sector; • Medical, Paramedical and Hospitals; • Institutions of Education, including Schools and University;
• South African Police Service;
• South African National Defence Force; • Representatives from the Provincial and National Government and neighbouring
Municipalities Disaster Management representatives;
• Representatives from Utilities (Electricity, Water, etc.); • Fire Protection Authorities and similar entities/organizations such as Working for Water and
Roads Agencies; • Transportation organizations (Spoornet, etc); • Non-governmental organizations, Community based development workers and disaster
management volunteers; • Traditional leaders; • Religious and Welfare organizations; and
• Representatives from all the National Key Points in the Municipal area.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 12
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
4.6 Creation of Maps and Data Collection Sheets for Workshops
Timeframe: October 2009 – January 2010
As was the case with the individual stakeholder consultations, it was necessary to create specific data
collection base maps and sheets in order to facilitate the consultation process and to be able to
collect and capture information in a suitable format. These maps and sheets were used during the
consultations to capture collected information.
4.7 Capacity Building and Community Participation w orkshops
Timeframe: January 2010 – February 2010
As part of incorporating indigenous knowledge, capacity building and community participation and
input workshops were held on 21 and 22 January 2010. An attendance register completed at these
workshops is shown in Appendix E. Following these workshops, additional individual stakeholder
consultations with key representatives were conducted. Where individual stakeholder consultations
were not possible, telephonic interviews were held with key representatives. Stakeholders consulted
during Activity 7 included:
• Community Representative (Councillors);
• Department of Health;
• Disaster Management;
• Electricity Department;
• Emergency Medical Services (Public);
• Fire Service;
• Hospital (Private & Public);
• Red Cross;
• Representative from Airport / ACSA;
• South African National Defence Force;
• Weather Services;
• Enviroserve Waste Management;
• SAMA (South African Marine Authority);
• Nelson Mandela Municipality (climate change); and
• Beach offices.
The data collection sheets used during these consultation and workshop sessions provided for the
following hazard and resilience related information to be captured:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 13
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Table 4-3: Information collected during Workshops a nd Stakeholder Consultations
Category Type of Information
General Information • Municipality name
Hazard Specific Information
• Name of Hazard Event
• Description of Event
• Actual vs. Potential event
• History of event (frequency)
• Date of Last Occurrence
• Location of Hazard Event
o Map Grid Code
o Suburb, road, etc.
• Seasonal occurrence
• Perception with regard to increasing occurrence
• Duration of Event and Effects
• Effects on:
o People
o Buildings & Contents
o Infrastructure
o Environment
o Economic Activities
• Cause of event
• Size of area affected
• Secondary Hazards
• Predictability and Early-warning
• Current plans and policies in place to reduce risk / severity
• The biggest obstacles in reducing risk / hazard?
• Hazard related aspects in IDP?
• Priority to reduce hazard
• Comments
Resilience Information
• Self-evaluation of Facility’s Resources on a scale from 1 – 3.
o Staff & Human Resources
o Expertise, Experience & Specialist Knowledge
o Vehicles
o Equipment
o Funding/Budget
o Prevention, Mitigation & Risk Reduction Plans
o Response & Recovery Plans
• Identification of challenges experienced by role players / departments in terms of safety, security and
disaster management
• Greatest needs in terms of safety, security and disaster management
Other Information • Additional Comments, remarks or recommendations
The information collected during these consultations and workshops were incorporated into the Risk
Profiling process and are discussed in Section 7.
4.8 Capturing of Data in GIS and Risk Modelling
Timeframe: December 2010 – February 2010
After the consultations, all the relevant information was captured into the appropriate electronic
formats and prepared for the risk modelling. Base data from various collected documents and
reports were also captured and included in the Risk Profiling.
More detail with regard to the Risk Profiling is provided in Section 5.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 14
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
4.9 Creation of HVMCR Maps and Disaster Risk Profil es
Timeframe: February 2010
The results from the Disaster Risk Model were used to compile the various HVRes and Risk maps,
while information collected from workshop consultations as well as information abstracted from
base data sources were used to compile disaster risk profiles for the NMBM. These results are
shown in Section 10.
4.10 Recommendations on Risk Reduction activities
Timeframe: February 2010
Recommendations on Risk Reduction activities were based on the results of the Risk Assessment.
These recommendations are discussed in Section 12.
4.11 Compilation of Draft Report and Workshop
Timeframe: February 2010
The draft DRA report contained the draft findings of the disaster risk assessment. The draft report
was presented to stakeholders in the NMBM on 18 February 2010 and 4 March 2010. Stakeholders
were presented with an opportunity to provide any additional input and comments on the draft report
and results. These comments and inputs were then used to update the report, in order to compile the
Final Disaster Risk Assessment Report.
4.12 Report Review Process
The review of the Disaster Risk Assessment report consists of the following activities:
• Stakeholders Review: The Draft Report (Version 1) was presented at a Stakeholder
Participation Workshop on 18 February 2010 in Port Elizabeth. The complete report was also
circulated to various stakeholders for comment and feedback.
• Feedback Meeting: A meeting was held in Port Elizabeth on 4 March 2010 during which
additional comments and feedback was discussed with role-players in the NMBM.
• External Specialist Review: The Draft Report (Version 1) was provided to the external
reviewer on the project. Comments received from the reviewer forms part of the report review
process.
Comments and input received during the review process was, where possible, incorporated in the
final report. Additional feedback related to received comments was also provided to the NMBM
DMC is a letter accompanying the final report.
4.13 Updating and Delivery of Final Report
Timeframe: March 2010
The Final Report was compiled and delivered to the NMBM DMC, together with all the created GIS
data and electronic copies of the report.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 15
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
5 Risk Model and Variables The Disaster Risk Assessment approach will be conducted in terms of a guiding theoretical
framework. This theoretical framework provides the guiding principles for setting up and running
the disaster risk model during the conducting of the disaster risk assessment.
A model can be defined as a representation of a set of components, a process, a system, or subject
area, generally developed for understanding, analysis, improvement, and/or replacement of the
subject under investigation. A model therefore provides the opportunity to represent certain aspects
of reality in order to illustrate or determine relationships, impacts or influences that normally might
be difficult to identify. Due to the fact that disaster risk management takes place in complex and
dynamic environments, modelling is ideally suited to determine disaster risk levels.
The disaster risk model was used to represent relevant aspects and characteristics of the NMBM in
order to illustrate the effects of interaction between various HVRe-levels and to calculate relative
levels of disaster risk. It was therefore important to ensure that the results achieved from this
modelling process are accurate, by making use of accurate and sufficient data as a basis for the risk
model.
It should be mentioned that it would be possible to model an exact and detailed replica of the
NMBM study area in a spatial model. Therefore, in order to represent the complex and intricate
NMBM area in a manageable and cost effective spatial model, specific assumptions were made to
represent a simplified, but still appropriate model, of the NMBM. Furthermore, specific limitations
and challenges with regards to the base data, information and modelling approach were identified
during the assessment process. Some of these assumptions and limitations are presented in Section
5.8.
The guiding theoretical framework as well as technical aspects of the risk modelling and assessment
process are discussed below:
5.1 The Disaster Risk Formula
The Disaster Risk Model is based on an internationally accepted mathematical formula, which is
supported by the NDMF, taking into account the various factors that constitute the level of risk,
based on specific hazards, in a specific area. The mathematical formula can be illustrated as:
where:
Risk The probability of harmful consequences or expected losses resulting from the
interactions of hazards and vulnerable conditions. Conventionally risk is expressed as follows: Risk
(R) = Hazard x Vulnerability. However, the concepts of Manageability and Capacity (combined as
Resilience) are also included in the formula.
Hazard x Vulnerability Manageability + Capacity
Risk =
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 16
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Hazard A potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon and/or human activity that may
cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental
degradation.
Vulnerability The degree to which an individual, a household, a community, an area or a
development may be adversely affected by the impact of a hazard. Conditions of vulnerability and
susceptibility to the impact of hazards are determined by political, physical, social, economic and
environmental factors or processes. The political aspect of vulnerability is not included in this
assessment since it entails a long process of investigating the political climate and culture of
different areas within the study area, which is a complete long-term study on its own.
Manageability For the purpose of this assessment Manageability will be defined as the combination
of all the strengths and resources available within the government departments and line-functions
(such as Fire Services, South African Police Service, Department of Health, etc) that can reduce the
level of risk or mitigate the effects of a disaster. Capacity may include physical, institutional, social
or economic means as well as skilled personnel or collective attributes such as leadership and
management.
Capacity For the purpose of this assessment Capacity will be defined as the combination of all
the strengths and resources available within the community or society (including NGOs, CBOs,
Faith Based Organizations, etc.) that can reduce the level of risk or the effects of a disaster. Capacity
may include physical, institutional, social or economic means as well as skilled personnel or
collective attributes such as leadership and management.
Resilience The combined value between the Manageability and Capacity values are referred to
as the Resilience value.
5.2 Concepts and Model Variables
In order to accurately interpret the results from the risk assessment, it is important to understand the
effects of different HVRes levels on calculated Risk levels. The underlying principle of the Disaster
Risk formula is that an increased Hazard and Vulnerability level, combined with decreased
Resilience levels will lead to an increased Risk level. Whereas, a reduced Hazard and Vulnerability
level, combined with an increased Resilience level, will lead to a decreased Risk level. A change in
any one of the individual HVRes values will have an impact on the resulting Risk level. This
relationship is shown below:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 17
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Hazard Vulnerability Resilience Risk
Hazard Vulnerability Resilience Risk
Figure 5-1: Relationship of Hazard, Vulnerability, Resilience and Risk levels
An example of a flood hazard event can be used to illustrate this relationship:
Example 1 – High Disaster Risk
A severe flood event, with high water levels and velocities (high hazard value) occurs in an informal
settlement community, where the community has a low income, low level of general health and
informal structures (high vulnerability value). It is also indicated that the local authorities and line
functions (fire services, police, health facilities) or the community based NGOs do not have adequate
resources (such as vehicles, equipment or human resources) to respond to an event (low resilience
value). These circumstances contribute to a high Disaster Risk value.
Example 2 – Low Disaster Risk
A low severity flood event, with low water levels and a low velocity (low hazard value) occurs in a
formal and established community. The community has a high income level, high level of general
health and the infrastructure in the community is designed and constructed to a suitable standard
with required storm water management infrastructure. It is also indicated that both the local
authorities and community based NGOs have adequate levels of resources to respond to this type of
event. This community will be classified as having a low disaster risk level with regard to this flood
event.
It should be remembered that areas with a high vulnerability do not necessary also have a low
resilience value, and that any combination of different hazard, vulnerability and resilience values can
be identified in an area or community. The interaction between these levels is important to
understand and interpret the results (and limitations) or the disaster risk assessment.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 18
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
5.3 The Use of GIS
Extensive use is made of a Geographical Information System (GIS) during the disaster risk
assessment process. This section provides an overview of the GIS approach for the risk assessment
for the NMBM.
5.3.1 What is a GIS
A Geographical Information Systems (GIS) is an information system that uses a computer to collect,
store, manipulate, analyze, and display geographically referenced data. It consists of various
components, including data, people, hardware, software and processes. Data related to the hazard,
vulnerability, and resilience levels of a specific area or feature is also mostly related to a specific
geographical location on the earth’s surface, and can therefore be represented in a GIS.
The level of disaster risk in a specific area depends on a range of interrelated factors. Amongst these
factors are the spatial extent and distribution of the HVRe related features. A GIS is therefore
ideally suited to conduct this type of modelling process.
In order to present the various HVRes-levels spatially, various individual GIS data layers will be
created. These data layers are used to calculate and spatially represent the risk levels in this study
area. This process is represented below:
Hazard Layer Vulnerability Layer Manageability Layer Capacity Layer
(Hazard x Vulnerability) ÷ (Manageability + Capacity) = RISK
Risk Layer
Figure 5-2: Data Layers to be used in the Disaster Risk Modeling
Even though the Spatial Modelling component of the Risk Assessment process involves a complex
process of inputs and outputs, the basic process is related to the principle described in the previous
section. In the simplest form, the Risk Assessment Process involves the following steps:
• Input; • Processing; and • Output.
Input used in the Risk Assessment process relates to the collected spatial and non-spatial data, and
information. These are further supplemented and refined by using inputs received from participants
and stakeholders through the workshops and consultation sessions.
Processing involves the capturing, transforming/projecting, format changing, quality
control/checking and calculation in both the spatial (GIS) and non-spatial environments. It also
includes re-visiting aspects that may have been collected during the input stage which may need
clarification, i.e. data based on certain stakeholder perceptions or spatial data that may need to be
adjusted/edited.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 19
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Output is mostly in the form of descriptions, values or ratings and is presented in the report in the
form of qualitative descriptions, quantitative tables and figures. Maps will be presented as an
integral part of the output since it will clearly identify areas and communities at risk.
5.3.2 Software
The risk assessment includes a spatial disaster risk modelling process. This modelling process was
conducted by making use of ESRI’s ArcView9.3™ software and it’s Spatial Analyst Extension.
5.3.3 Coordinate System
The technical characteristics of the utilised GIS data are described below:
• Datum: Hartebeeshoek 1994; Lo25;
• Projection: Transverse Mercator;
• False Easting: 0.000000;
• False Northing: 0.000000;
• Central Meridian: 25.000000;
• Scale Factor: 1.000000;
• Latitude of Origin: 0.000000;
• Linear Unit: Meter.
5.3.4 Data directory structure
The spatial data structure was designed based on the risk assessment modelling guidelines:
• Base data: Information such as the Demarcated municipal boundaries, wards, cadastre
(erfs/stands) and topographic data, which is not used in the modelling process but used for
mapping purposes.
• Capacity and Manageability: Locations of Fire and Emergency services, police, clinics,
hospitals and other relevant organisations.
• Hazards: All spatial hazard data gathered as well as desktop hazard analysis results.
• Vulnerability: Gathered vulnerability data as well as desktop vulnerability analysis results.
Figure 5-3 provides a view of the directory structure:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 20
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Figure 5-3: Directory structure for the digital dat a for the project
5.4 Hazard Severity Indices and Mapping
This section describes the technical aspects and approach used to conduct the hazard assessment and
profiling for the NMBM.
5.4.1 Hazards Description and Categories
The National Disaster Management Framework provides a list of hazards to be considered during a
disaster risk assessment. The hazard categorization is shown in Table 5-1:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 21
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Table 5-1: Classification of Hazards according to t he National Disaster Management Framework
For the purpose of the Disaster Risk Assessment for the NMBM, Table 5-1 was further refined and
expanded, and the following hazard categorization was used:
Figure 5-4: Hazard Categories
Each of these main hazard categories contained a number of individual hazards. In order to facilitate
reporting as well as the creation of maps, these individual hazards were grouped into ‘Combined
Hazard Categories’. These categories are shown in Table 5-2:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 22
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Table 5-2: Hazards considered during the Disaster R isk Assessment
Hazard Category and Name Transport Hazards - Air Transportation Transport Hazards - Rail Transportation Transport Hazards - Road Transportation Transport Hazards - Water Transportation Civil Unrest - Demonstrations / Riots Civil Unrest - Refugees / Displaced People Civil Unrest - Xenophobic Violence Civil Unrest - Terrorism Civil Unrest - Armed Conflict (Civil/Political War) Civil Unrest - Crime Hydro-meteorological - Drought Environmental Degradation - Deforestation Environmental Degradation - Erosion Environmental Degradation - Land Degradation Environmental Degradation - Loss of Biodiversity Disease / Health - Disease: Animal Disease / Health - Disease: Human Disease / Health - Disease: Plants Fire Hazards - Veld/Forest Fires Fire Hazards - Formal & Informal Settlements / Urban Area Hydro-meteorological Hazards - Floods (River, Urban & Dam Failure) Geological Hazards - Earthquake Geological Hazards - Landslides/Mud flows Geological Hazards - Rock-fall Geological Hazards - Subsidence Hydro-meteorological Hazards - Severe Storms (Wind, Hail, Snow, Lightning, Fog) Hydro-meteorological Hazards - Desertification Hydro-meteorological Hazards - Extreme Temperatures Hazardous Material - Hazmat: Spill/Release (Storage & Transportation) Hazardous Material - Hazmat: Fire/Explosion (Storage & Transportation) Infestations - Plant Infestations (Intruder Plants) Infestations - Animal Infestation / Over Population Infestations - Insect Infestation Infestations - Algal Bloom (Red Tide) Infrastructure Failure / Service Delivery Failure - Electrical Infrastructure Failure / Service Delivery Failure - Information Technology Infrastructure Failure / Service Delivery Failure - Sanitation Infrastructure Failure / Service Delivery Failure - Transport Infrastructure Failure / Service Delivery Failure - Gas Infrastructure Failure / Service Delivery Failure - Water Major Event Hazards (Cultural, Religious, Political, Recreational, Commercial, Sport) Pollution - Air Pollution Pollution - Land Pollution Pollution - Water Pollution (Fresh and Sea) Structural Failure - Bridge Failure Structural Failure - Building Failure Structural Failure - Dam failure Oceanographic - Tsunami Oceanographic - Sea Level Rise (Climate Change) Oceanographic - Storm Surge
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 23
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
5.4.2 Approach to Hazard Profiling
The South African National Disaster Management Act as well as the NDMF stipulates that
indigenous knowledge relating to disaster management should be included in Disaster Management
planning, as well as in disaster risk assessments. However, indigenous knowledge, especially when
related to the occurrences of hazard events and disasters, might sometimes be based on a particular
individual’s perception and memory, and might therefore not always be entirely accurate. It is
therefore often valuable to verify indigenous knowledge in a group set-up, where information can be
discussed and verified by more than one member of a specific community. Alternative sources of
information such as incident reports and statistics can provide a formal record of events. However,
formal records might not always be available, or statistics might be captured incorrectly and not
always illustrate or take into account all factors related to specific events (Adams 2001).
For this assessment and related hazard profiling, three approaches were used to compile the hazard
profile of the NMBM. These approaches were:
• Hazard profiling through individual stakeholder consultations and focus group discussions to collect specialist and indigenous knowledge with regards to hazards in the NMBM;
• Desk-top hazard profiling through the use of statistics, reports and base data; and
• GIS Based hazard profiling through the use of GIS base data to identify hazards based on local conditions in the NMBM.
The results of these 3 approaches were compared and are presented in the relevant sections of this
report.
5.4.3 Hazard Profiling through Stakeholder Consulta tion and Indigenous Knowledge
As outlined in Section 4, hazard data was collected during individual stakeholder consultations as
well as capacity building and community participation workshops. The information collected during
these workshops and consultations was captured in an electronic format, and used to calculate
indicative hazard ratings for the various identified hazards. This was done by assigning specific
ratings and weights to the various hazard characteristics. The hazard characteristics used in the
calculation of the indicative hazard ratings were:
• Possibility of occurrence of hazard event (actual vs. probability); • History of occurrence of hazard event; • Seasonal occurrence of hazard event; • Increase in hazard event occurrence;
• Duration of hazard event and effect; • Predictability of event and early warning;
• Effect of hazard event on People; • Effect of hazard event on Buildings;
• Effect of hazard event on Infrastructure; • Effect of hazard event on Environment;
• Effect of hazard event on Economy; and • Size of Area Affected by Hazard event.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 24
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
An example of the calculation of an indicative hazard rating based on stakeholder inputs is shown in
Figure 5-5:
Stakeholder
Classification
0 - No
1 - Not yet
2 - Has
occurred
X in X
4 seasons
OR
12 months
0 - unkn
1 - Yes
2 - No
1-5 1-5
1 - No
2 - Partia l
3 - Yes
0 - No
1 - Minor
2 - Severe
3 - Tota l
0 - No
1 - Minor
2 - Severe
3 - Total
0 - No
1 - Minor
2 - Severe
3 - Tota l
0 - No
1 - Minor
2 - Severe
3 - Tota l
0 - No
1 - Minor
2 - Severe
3 - Total
1 - prop
2 - ward
3 - few wards
4 - enti re
Hazard
IndicatorsPossibility History Seasonal Increase Duration
Predictab
ility
Effect
People
Effect
Buildings
Effect
Infrastructu
re
Effect
Environment
Effect
EconomyArea Affected
Indicator
Weighting3% 16% 3% 3% 16% 3% 16% 9% 16% 3% 9% 3% 100%
Civil Unrest -
Crime
Robbing of
tourists
Indicator Rating
(0-1)1.0 0.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.37
Indicative
Hazard
RatingHazard
Category
Hazard
Description
Figure 5-5: Calculation of Indicative Hazard Values based on Stakeholder Inputs
Representatives were also asked to classify the identified events as either a Class 1, 2 or 3 event.
The description of these classes is shown in Table 5-3:
Table 5-3: Hazard Class Events
Class 1 Class 2 Class 3
Regular Events
(Ordinary, day-to-day
Activities/Incidents)
Rare Events
(Out of ordinary, but still
manageable)
Extreme occurrences
(Extraordinary events, disaster events,
not manageable)
The indicative hazard values based on the stakeholder inputs were compared with the desktop hazard
profiling results in order to compile the hazard profiling tables for the NMBM. The indicative
values were also incorporated into the GIS Hazard Profile of the NMBM.
5.4.4 Desk-Top Hazard Profiling
The desktop hazard profiling was done based on information abstracted from existing base data and
statistics. A desktop hazard assessment was conducted, focussing on the following hazard severity
indicators:
• Disaster Risk (y/n); • Frequency of Occurrence; • Likelihood / Probability; • Seasonal Pattern; • Predictability & possibility for
Early Warning; • Location; • Spatial Extent of Hazard Event
Effect; • Duration of Actual Hazard Event;
• Speed of Onset; • Secondary Hazards; • Effect on People; • Effect on Infrastructure/Services; • Effect on Buildings; • Effect on Environment Resources
(Animals, Plants, Water, Soil); and
• Media value or Reputational risk.
The results received from the desktop assessment were compared with the results from the GIS
modelling, previous assessments and stakeholder perception value, and all of this information was
used to compile the final risk ratings for the NMBM.
Hazard 1 Cat 1
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 25
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
5.4.5 GIS Based Hazard Profiling
Hazard profiles were also represented spatially by making use of a GIS. This was done by
considering the land-use/land-cover data of the NMBM, and then mapping specific hazards
applicable to the different land-use/land-cover categories as well as particular features in the
NMBM. The hazard mapping and buffering guidelines are attached in Annexure B – GIS RHVMC
Modelling & Buffer Guidelines.
Information received from stakeholders, as well as information from base data was also included in
the GIS hazard mapping.
5.4.6 Finalizing the Hazard Profile
Figure 5-6 is a summary of the process followed to finalize the hazard values during the NMBM
DRA.
Workshop ConsultationHazard Values
Desktop Hazard Assessment(Non-Spatial)
Desktop Hazard Assessment(Spatial - GIS)
Hazard Ratings
GIS Base Data
Hazard Rating Tables (per Ward)
Hazard Maps
Hazard Rating Tables (for Metro)
Report and StatisticsHazard
Description
HAZARD ASSESSMENT & REPORTING
GIS Hazard Data Layer
Figure 5-6: Hazard Assessment and Reporting Approac h
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 26
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
5.5 Vulnerability Indices and Mapping
Vulnerability assessments and reporting also form part of the DRA process. This vulnerability
profiling for the NMBM consists of three processes. These processes are discussed in the following
sections:
5.5.1 General Vulnerability Description
During the first process, the vulnerability of the NMBM is described in terms of general
vulnerability indicators. This mainly includes census and community survey information. During
this assessment, the vulnerability of the NMBM is described and compared with key indicators of
neighbouring municipalities and areas. This assessment is mainly done in the form of a qualitative
and quantitative description of vulnerability, without the use of specific vulnerability ratings.
5.5.2 Vulnerability Rating: Combined Land Cover / L and Use Data Layer
The second approach to vulnerability mapping in the NMBM involves the classification of land
use/land-cover data. Land use data was used to classify the vulnerability of various land uses within
the study area to the effects of different types of hazards. The vulnerability of the various areas in
the NMBM was classified in terms of social, structural, environmental and economic vulnerability.
This profiling was based on a newly created data layer. This data layer was created after reviewing
and combining the zoning and land-cover data received from the NMBM and the NDMC by making
use of Points of Interest and Arial photography data. Specific vulnerability factors for Social,
Structural and Economic vulnerability was assigned the created data layer. The Environmental
vulnerability was based on the Ecosystems Status 2007 data received from the NMBM. The results
of this vulnerability profiling are discussed in Section 8.2.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 27
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Table 5-4: Vulnerability Factors
Land-Use Soci Stru Eco Land-Use Soci Stru Eco
Agriculture 0.30 0.60 0.70 Open Space 0.10 0.10 0.10
Airfield 0.60 0.80 0.60 Park 0.30 0.10 0.10
Airport 0.80 1.00 0.80 Plantations 0.10 0.30 0.70
Authority 0.60 0.60 0.60 Prison 1.00 0.70 0.20
Business 0.70 0.70 0.70 Private Nature Reserve 0.30 0.50 0.50
Canal 0.10 0.50 0.10 Race Track (Cars) 0.60 0.60 0.30
Cemeteries and Sewage Disposal 0.10 0.60 0.20 Railways 0.10 0.80 0.40
Church 0.80 0.60 0.20 Residential 0.80 0.60 0.30
Coastline 0.20 0.10 0.20 Residential Rural 0.70 0.50 0.10
Commercial 0.70 0.70 0.80 Resort 0.90 0.70 0.60
Creche 1.00 0.60 0.30 Roads and Parking Areas 0.10 0.60 0.30
Dam 0.10 0.80 0.10 Rural Residential 0.70 0.40 0.10
Game Farm 0.30 0.50 0.60 Saltworks 0.20 0.30 0.60
Government 0.60 0.70 0.60 Schools 1.00 0.70 0.20
Harbour 0.70 0.80 1.00 Services/Servitude 0.10 0.80 0.20
Hospital 1.00 0.80 0.50 Small holdings 0.60 0.60 0.50
Industrial 0.70 0.80 0.80 Special Environmental 0.10 0.20 0.20
Informal Settlements 1.00 0.30 0.20 Sport Stadium 1.00 0.70 0.30
Institutional 0.60 0.60 0.60 Sport and Recreation 0.60 0.40 0.10
Lighthouse 0.40 0.80 0.20 Undeveloped Disturbed Areas 0.10 0.10 0.10
Local Authority 0.60 0.60 0.40 Undeveloped Natural Areas 0.10 0.10 0.10
Major Hazardous Installation 0.60 0.80 1.00 University 0.80 0.80 0.50
Mine 0.60 0.60 0.60 Waste Site 0.10 0.10 0.30
National Park 0.30 0.50 0.50 Waterbody 0.10 0.10 0.10
Note: Soc – Social, Stru – Structural, Eco – Economic.
5.5.3 Vulnerability Rating: Socio-Economic Ward Pro files
The third approach in assessing the vulnerability in the NMBM is by making use of socio-economic
data for each of the wards in the NMBM. The Census 20011 data (StatsSA, 2001) was used for this
assessment.
During the Socio-economic ward assessment, key census indicators were used to calculate the
relative vulnerability of each of the wards in the NMBM. Indicators that were used included:
• Access to potable water;
• Access to serviced (piped/pumped) sanitation;
• Access to communication; and
• Access to energy sources.
The results of this assessment are discussed under Section 8.3.
1 See Assumptions and Limitations with regard to the Census 2001 data under Section 5.8.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 28
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
5.5.4 Finalizing the Vulnerability Profile
Figure 5-7 represents an overview of the process followed to conduct the Vulnerability assessment
for the NMBM.
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT & REPORTING
GIS Vulnerability Data Layer
Desktop Vulnerability Assessment(Spatial - GIS)
Vulnerability Description
Vulnerability Rating Tables (per Ward)
Vulnerability Maps
Report and Statistics
GIS Base Data Census DataVulnerability Rating Tables (per Ward)
Figure 5-7: Vulnerability Assessment and Reporting Approach
5.6 Resilience Indices and Mapping
Resilience mapping was required as part of this assessment. Resilience Mapping refers to a
combination of “Manageability” and ”Capacity”. The resilience assessment consisted of two main
activities. The first was based on resilience profiling based on input received from stakeholders. The
second approach was GIS based resilience mapping.
5.6.1 Resilience Profiling through Stakeholder Cons ultation
During the stakeholder consultation workshops and interviews, representatives from various
departments and line functions were provided with the opportunity to do a self assessment of their
own organization in terms of the capacity to fulfil their responsibility in disaster management. The
representatives were provided with a questionnaire, instructing them to rate the capacity of their own
line function/department in terms of the capacity to conduct the required day-to-day, disaster risk
reduction as well as disaster response activities. Representatives were also instructed that the result
of the assessment should not act as a ‘wish list’ but should reflect the current and actual resources
required to adequately perform disaster management related activities.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 29
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Representatives were asked to rate their capacity in terms of the following aspects:
• Staff/Human Resources; • Expertise, Experience & Specialist Knowledge; • Vehicles;
• Equipment; • Funding/Budget;
• Facilities/Buildings; • Risk Reduction Plans, Policies & Programmes; and • Response Plans, Policies & Programmes.
Representatives were instructed to rate the above mentioned categories in terms of one of the
following ratings:
• 1 Representing an insufficient level of resources, equipment, or plans to fulfil the
disaster management related responsibilities;
• 2 Representing a sufficient level of resources, equipment, or plans to fulfil the disaster
management related responsibilities; and
• 3 Representing a more than sufficient level of resources, equipment, or plans to fulfil
the disaster management related responsibilities.
Representatives also had the opportunity to identify and describe specific needs their organization
has in order to reduce disaster risk or ensure a more effective response to disasters. It should,
however, be mentioned that, the results achieved during the capacity self-evaluation is based only on
the feedback received from the representatives, and was not subjected to additional confirmation and
verification, and should therefore be seen in this light.
The result of this assessment was used to calculate average resilience values for each of the role
players and the results are discussed in Section 9.1.
5.6.2 GIS Based Resilience Profiling
In order to model the disaster risk in the NMBM spatially, it was required to represent the resilience
values spatially. This was done by creating and combining a number of GIS datasets:
The first approach related to mapping the location of key line-functions, and to represent
approximate service areas spatially. The basis of this approach relates to the assumption that
communities that are located in proximity of facilities such as hospitals, police stations and fire
stations, might have relatively more access to services than communities located far away from
facilities. Based on this, it was therefore assumed that communities closer to facilities will have a
comparatively higher resilience value, than communities that were located further away from
facilities.
An example of resilience mapping based on the location of key facilities (fire stations) is shown in
Figure 5-8.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 30
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Figure 5-8: Resilience mapping based on location of Fire Stations in the NMBM.
The second approach to resilience mapping is based on the land-use/land-cover data. The basis of
this approach relates to the assumption that certain land-use/land-cover types can facilitate disaster
management actions better than other land-use/land-cover types. As an example, it can be assumed
that disaster management role players can respond more effectively to disaster and incidents by
making use of established roads and infrastructure, as opposed to undeveloped areas. Based on this,
developed and serviced areas will have a higher resilience value, than undeveloped or un-serviced
areas.
In order to compile a resilience map based on land-use/land-cover data, specific resilience values
had to be assigned to difference land-use/land-cover classifications. The values used during this
assessment are shown in Table 5-5:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 31
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Table 5-5: Resilience values used for Land-use/Land -cover resilience mapping.
Landuse Core Landuse Core
Agriculture 0.500 Open Space 0.300
Airfield 0.627 Park 0.500
Airport 0.627 Plantations 0.700
Authority 0.600 Prison 0.700
Business 0.750 Private Nature Reserve 0.600
Canal 0.100 Race Track (Cars) 0.700
Cemeteries and Sewage Disposal 0.500 Railways 0.500
Church 0.600 Residential 0.550
Coastline 0.100 Residential Rural 0.550
Commercial 0.750 Resort 0.700
Creche/nursery/pre-school 0.600 Roads and Parking Areas 0.500
Dam 0.100 Rural Residential 0.550
Game Farm 0.600 Salt works 0.300
Government 0.600 Schools 0.500
Harbour 0.650 Services/Servitude 0.667
Hospital 0.617 Small holdings 0.550
Industrial 0.777 Special Environmental 0.300
Informal Settlements 0.200 Sport Stadium 0.600
Institutional 0.600 Sport and Recreation 0.500
Lighthouse 0.600 Undeveloped Disturbed Areas 0.300
Local Authority 0.600 Undeveloped Natural Areas 0.300
Major Hazardous Installation 0.800 University 0.600
Mine 0.600 Waste Site 0.300
National Park 0.500 Water body 0.100
The results from the land-use/land-cover resilience mapping are shown in Section 9.3. The two
created resilience data layers were combined to create a single resilience data layer which was used
in the disaster risk model. This layer was also used to abstract resilience values for each of the
wards for the NMBM.
5.6.3 Finalizing the Resilience Profile
The final resilience profile (consisting of Capacity & Manageability data) for the NMBM consisted
of a number of final deliverables:
• The first deliverable is the description of the various resilience role players as contained in
Sections 9.1 and 9.2.
• The second deliverable is the Resilience map as shown in Section 9.3.
• The third deliverable is the resilience factors per ward, as shown in Section 9.4.
These components should not be considered as stand-alone resilience profiles of the NMBM, but
should be considered together in order to analyse and understand the resilience profile of the
NMBM:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 32
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
RESILIENCE (CAPACITY & MANAGEABILITY) ASSESSMENT & REPORTING
GIS Resilience Data Layer
Workshop ConsultationResilience Values
Analysis of Location(Spatial - GIS)
Resilience Ratings
GIS Base Data
Resilience Rating Tables (per Ward)
Resilience Maps
Resilience Rating Tables (per RP & Metro)
Resilience DescriptionReports and Statistics
Figure 5-9: Resilience Assessment and Reporting App roach for the NMBM
5.7 Risk Profiling and Rating
The final risk values were calculated by making use of the defined risk formula, and combining the
appropriate HVRe values and data layers. The result of this process included maps, descriptions and
rating tables.
5.7.1 Interpreting the Results
The deliverables from the Risk Assessment include, amongst other items, various maps and tables.
In addition to ratings, colour coding is also used to represent various hazard, vulnerability, resilience
or risk levels.
In interpreting the maps and tables, it is important to consider the following:
Tables – The tables represent the quantitative results of the various calculations, and provide a tool
for comparing different levels of the classifications, for example, the severity of various hazards. In
most cases, the tables are also colour coded, with Red indicating a negative value (High Hazard,
Vulnerability or Risk), with Green indication a positive value (Low Hazard, Vulnerability or Risk).
Maps – The results contained in the maps provides a spatial representation of the various Hazard,
Vulnerability, Resilience and Risk levels. For example, Road Transport Hazards may be high on
major routes. It should however be stated that maps represent only a spatial representation of the
component under investigation, and different maps should not be compared with one another. For
example, a Red Hazard Rating on a Fire Hazard map should not be compared with a Red Hazard
Rating for Transportation Hazards. The rating only relates to the spatial occurrence of the hazard.
All comparison should be done on the basis of the provided prioritization table which was compiled
for the NMBM.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 33
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Table 5-6: Rating Classifications in Reporting Tabl es and Maps
Colour Hazard Vulnerability Resilience Risk Priorit y
Red A high hazard rating, causing an increased risk
A high vulnerability rating, causing an increased risk rating
A low resilience rating, causing a increased risk
A high risk rating
Higher Priority, mitigation or treatment options should be implemented over a shorter term
Yellow A medium hazard rating
A medium vulnerability rating
A medium resilience rating
A medium risk rating
Medium Priority, mitigation or treatment measures should be implemented over the medium term
Green A low hazard rating, causing a decreased risk
A low vulnerability rating, causing a decreased risk rating
A high resilience rating, causing a decreased risk rating
A low risk rating
Lower Priority, mitigation or treatment measures should be implemented over a longer term
It is important to consider that the highest risk rating will be achieved in an area where the Hazard
and Vulnerability levels are high, while the Resilience levels are low. This interaction between the
three components should be considered to determine the risk level within any area under
investigation.
5.8 Assumptions and Limitations
5.8.1 Data Limitations and Challenges
It should be noted that SRK are not custodians of any of the project data and therefore cannot
guarantee the accuracy of data received from the data custodians consulted during this project or any
of the involved stakeholders. Where multiple sets of the same data were gathered the data was
evaluated and an attempt was made to use the most accurate or most recently available data.
It should also be considered that most spatial entities are dynamic and changes occur over time.
Changes in land use for instance can have major implications on the modelling results as both a large
amount of hazard information and vulnerability information is based on land use data.
It must therefore also be considered that the modelling of disaster risk is a dynamic process that
needs to be updated regularly to reflect any changes in the physical environment and human
settlement and activities.
The following specific challenges were experienced with regard to the project approach and related
aspects:
• The land use data used for hazard and vulnerability modeling was created by merging the 2006
land cover, most recent zoning data and list of informal settlements received from Nelson
Mandela Municipality into a single polygon layer. (Also see description in Section 5.5.2). This
layer was then overlaid on the 2007 aerial photography and points of interest from Business
Connexion (Pty) Ltd and GISCOE (Pty) Ltd. The general current land use was then captured
from this information in a desktop exercise. This process required extensive input in terms of
adjusting and confirming that the land-cover/land-use data layer used in the assessment was as
accurate as reasonably possible. It is, however, foreseen that there will still be gaps in the land
use data especially as the zoning data received from NMBM is in places not representative of the
actual land use.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 34
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
• Statistics from the Fire Services (DMC) were useful, but only provided the total number of
events over a particular period, and does not provide any information with regards to trends or
new developments. Calculated probabilities and frequency therefore represent an indication of a
probability or frequency based on the number of incidents over the entire period, and do not
necessarily represent the current probability or frequency of any particular event occurring.
• The statistics and classes/categories were used “as is” and the classification of different events
was not investigated or verified.
• There is a serious need for a comprehensive Information Management System that can be used
for the capturing of information with regard to incidents in the NMBM. Due to the current need,
incident related statistics were only available from the Fire Services, and more detailed analysis
of incidents or events was not possible. Statistics and information from other line functions
(such as private emergency services or the SAPS) were not included in this assessment, but
inputs received from these stakeholders during individual interviews were incorporated where
possible.
• Information used during the status quo assessment and vulnerability mapping consisted of both
the StatsSA 2007 Community survey as well as the 2001 StatsSA Census data. Due to the fact
that 2007 Community Survey data was only available for municipal level, and not ward level,
comparison of ward level vulnerability was done with 2001 Census information. This
information is currently considered outdated, and it is recommended that the vulnerability
mapping exercise be repeated as soon as the Census data from the next census (Census 2011) is
made available.
5.8.2 Limitations and Challenges to the Methodology
• The project scope did not allow for independent and in depth assessment of the resilience levels
of departments, line-functions or community role-players. The results from the self-evaluation
were used as a basic indication of the resilience levels (capacity and manageability) and needs
within the NMBM. It is proposed that a more detailed and in depth assessment of resilience be
conducted.
• Resilience values are not hazard specific, but average multi-hazard resilience values for role
players in the NMBM were used. It is proposed that, should additional funds be available, a
more detailed hazard-specific resilience assessment be conducted in the NMBM.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 35
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
6 Status Quo Assessment of the NMBM The Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality (NMBM) was established in 2000 by joining the local
authorities of Port Elizabeth, Uitenhage, Despatch and several smaller adjacent local authorities into
one metropolitan municipality with a new demarcated boundary (NMBM 2006). The boundary is
shown in Figure 6-1.
Figure 6-1: NMBM Locality Map
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 36
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
The current characteristics of the NMBM need to be taken into account during the Risk Assessment
process. This section focuses on the characteristics of the NMBM, and investigates how the current
situation impacts on disaster risks in the NMBM.
6.1 Geographical Setting
The Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality is located to the south-east of the Cacadu District, in the
south-western region of the Eastern Cape Province. The Municipal area extends from the mouth of
the van Stadens River in the south-west to the Sundays River mouth in the north-east, incorporating
Port Elizabeth, Uitenhage and Despatch, and covers an area of 195 412 ha (1 954 km2) (SRK, 2009).
A number of major geographical features predominate the landscape of Nelson Mandela Bay, in
particular the Winterhoek Mountains in the north-west and the van Stadensberg mountains in the
south-west. The two half-heart bays of Algoa and St Francis, which straddle the eastern and
southern coastline of Nelson Mandela Bay respectively, are separated by the Cape Recife headland
in the south-east. A series of ancient coastal dunes, which are vegetated by a mosaic of Indian
Ocean forest, Subtropical thicket and Coastal fynbos characterise the southern part of the
Municipality (SRK, 2009).
Four major rivers (Sundays, Swartkops, Maitland and van Stadens Rivers) and their associated
estuaries are present within Nelson Mandela Bay, with two each along the south-western and north-
eastern seaboards. The lower reaches of the Papenkuils River have been canalized for decades, are
severely degraded, and consequently no longer functional as an estuary (SRK, 2009).
About 40% of the natural features of the Municipality have already been lost due to urban
development, industry, cultivation, grazing, mining and alien plant infestation. The central and
eastern parts of the Municipality are largely developed for residential, commercial and industrial
purposes. The northern, western and most southern parts of Nelson Mandela Bay are rural in nature
and are predominantly used for agricultural, low density residential and conservation purposes. Due
to the formal safe-guarding of natural areas via nature reserves and limited development in some
areas to date, vast parts of the Municipality are of high scenic value and underpin Nelson Mandela
Bay's tourism economy (SRK, 2009).
6.2 Weather and Climate
The climate is mild and generally frost-free in winter. The summers can be very warm. Rainfall has
a peak in autumn and spring with a maximum of not more than 500 mm. Desiccating, stiff winds
from the southeast and the southwest that blow in most months further contribute to the aridity of the
area (NMBM, 2009).
The weather of the NMBM area is mainly dependent on atmospheric depressions that move over the
region in an easterly direction followed by anticyclones (Stone et al. 1998 in NMBM, 2009). In
winter, the approaching depression is preceded by a coastal low-pressure system accompanied by a
north-easterly wind, changing either to northerly or northwesterly berg winds. Following the low-
pressure system, the westerly to southwesterly wind brings cooler weather with low cloud. As the
depression passes, there is a tendency for more wind and rain to occur. Winds are often strong,
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 37
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
sometimes giving rise to gales and rain lasting from 12 to 36 hours. In summer, the passage of
coastal low pressure systems are followed by cloudy, occasionally rainy weather brought about by
following cells of high pressure. Temperature inversions are commonly observed during winter
mornings above the study area and have the tendency to inhibit vertical air pollution dispersion
(NMBM, 2009).
The climate of Nelson Mandela Bay is complex, as it falls at the confluence of several climatic
regimes, the most important of which are temperate and subtropical. The area has a warm temperate
climate and the temperature ranges are not extreme. Exceptionally high temperatures may be
experienced during berg wind conditions, which occur frequently during autumn and winter prior to
the arrival of low pressure systems from the west. Extreme temperatures also occur during summer,
with little accompanying wind (SRK, 2009). Average maximum and minimum monthly
temperatures for Port Elizabeth are shown below.
10 118
42
-1 -12 2
3 69
39 3841
3935
32 3331
39 3936 36
-5
5
15
25
35
45
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Temperature in the NMBM(oC)
1961-1990: Lowest Recorded 1961-1990: Highest Recorded
1961-1990: Avg Daily Max 1961-1990: Avg Daily Min
1957 - 2002: Avg Monthly Max 1957 - 2002: Avg Monthly Min
Source: NMBM, 2009 & SRK, 2009
Figure 6-2: Temperatures in the NMBM
The Nelson Mandela Bay area has a bimodal rainfall pattern, with peaks in autumn and spring.
Annual rainfall in Nelson Mandela Bay ranges from 440 mm to 820 mm. The annual rainfall for
Port Elizabeth's is approximately 618 mm; however, the Coega area receives approximately 400 mm
of rain annually. Rain occurs throughout the year as a result of convective summer rain and winter
rain associated with the passage of frontal troughs. The long-term average rainfall data for Port
Elizabeth is illustrated in Figure 6-3. The annual mean relative humidity of the air is 78%. Port
Elizabeth can expect about 16 thunderstorm days per annum (Stone et al, 1998 in SRK, 2009).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 38
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
36.8 39.5 51.4 50 51.1 56.8 49.1 71.6 52.8
57.8 57.9
43.468
121
224
10576
6099
77
429
46 52
95
10
100
1000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Rainfall in the NMBM(mm)
1961 - 1990: Avg Monthly (mm) 1970 - 2004: Avg Monthly (mm)
1961 - 1990: Max 24h Rainfall
Source: NMBM 2009 & SRK 2009
Figure 6-3: Rainfall in the NMBM
Source: Water Research Commission (2005)
Figure 6-4: Annual Average Rainfall in the NMBM
Winds at Port Elizabeth reflect the seasonal variation of the atmospheric circulation systems and the
influence of coastal lows. Westerly to south-westerly winds are the most prevalent, but during the
summer months, easterly to south-easterly winds are almost as frequent. During winter, offshore
(north-westerly) winds occur more frequently than in summer. This region of the South African
coast experiences strong winds and occasional gales regardless of the season. The prevailing
direction of these winds is west-south-west to south-west (Figure 8). Fresh winds (of >8 m.s-1) are
fairly frequent, with the highest prevalence of strong winds in September to December (Stone et al.
1998 in NMBM, 2009).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 39
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Source: SA Weather Services in NMBM, 2009
Figure 6-5: Wind rose for Port Elizabeth
6.3 Natural Environment
6.3.1 Coastline and Marine Environmental
The Nelson Mandela Bay coastline is almost 100km in length, extending from the mouth of the van
Stadens River in the south-west to the Sundays River mouth in the north-east. The two half-heart
bays of Algoa and St Francis, which straddle the eastern and southern coastline of Nelson Mandela
Bay respectively, are separated by the Cape Recife headland. The southern beaches are interspersed
with rocky and sandy shores, with the north-eastern beaches predominated by sandy shores (SRK,
2008).
However, the characters of all the beaches are highly diverse due to the varied influences of deep-sea
swell height, period and direction, prevailing winds, local geology and oceanography, and the Cape
Recife headland. Four functional estuaries are present within Nelson Mandela Bay, with two each
along the south-western and north-eastern seaboards. The north-eastern estuaries at the mouths of
the Swartkops and Sundays Rivers are characterized by substantial freshwater inputs from these
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 40
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
perennial rivers and are permanently open to the sea. The south-western estuaries at the mouths of
the Maitland and van Stadens Rivers receive limited, seasonal freshwater input and are
predominantly closed. They are generally only open after substantial rainfall or very high surf
events. The lower reaches of the Papenkuils River have been canalized for decades, are severely
degraded, and consequently no longer functional as an estuary (SRK, 2008).
High levels of phyto- and zooplankton production along the coast support commercially viable
shoals of epipelagic fish, such as Anchovy and Pilchard. These species form the food base for
substantial diversity and abundance of predatory fish, seabirds and marine mammals (Smale et al,
1994 in SRK,, 2008). The abundance of shellfish along the coastline is also notable. The islands of
Brenton, Jahleel and St Croix (collectively known as the Islands of the Cross) occur a few kilometers
offshore of the north-eastern seaboard and are located between the mouths of the Swartkops and
Sundays Rivers (SRK, 2008).
The southern rural coastal zone of Nelson Mandela Bay, which extends from the van Stadens River
mouth to Cape Recife point, is characterized by a series of ancient dunes, which are vegetated by a
mosaic of Indian Ocean forest, Subtropical thicket and Coastal fynbos. The series of dunes increases
rapidly in altitude, from sea level to 270 m over as little as 1.6 km in places. This rapid change in
topography provides expansive vistas of the southern coastal belt of Nelson Mandela Bay, with
much of this area being characterized by intact natural vegetation, farmland or small urban nodes. As
such this area remains of immense aesthetic beauty, unlike much of the coastal zone in and around
the country's cities and large towns. Mobile dune systems feed sand into bays along the southern
coastal belt and are flanked by permanent or temporarily stable vegetated areas. In light of the
contrast of landscapes, the relatively unspoilt vistas and the country roads in this area, the southern
rural coastal zone of Nelson Mandela Bay is a prime tourist attraction of Nelson Mandela Bay (SRK,
2008).
The near shore environment of the area is predominated by rocky wave-cut platforms, sandy
beaches, and mobile dune fields. The near shore is subject to substantial wave action, particularly
during the winter months when large, long-period south-westerly swells originating in the southern
ocean meet their final destination along the rocky and sandy shores of this section of coastline. The
area is also exposed to periodic strong- to gale-force south-westerly winds throughout the year (SRK
, 2008).
The southern urban coastal zone of Port Elizabeth is one of the longest permanently inhabited parts
of Nelson Mandela Bay. The sheltered nature of the coast line due to the influence of the Cape
Recife peninsula resulted in this section of the coast being the only safe anchorage along the south-
eastern Cape coast until the 18th century. The very gradual gradient of the shoreline provides ideal
bathing opportunities, with the most popular beaches including Hobie Beach, Humewood Beach,
Kings Beach and Pollok Beach. The maintenance of green open space between the beaches and
adjacent infrastructure has ensured that the visual characteristics of the beaches have not been lost
(SRK, 2008).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 41
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
The Port Elizabeth harbour lies at the non-functional mouth of the Baakens River. The port is
moderate in size and provides berthing for a resident fleet of yachts and fishing vessels, as well as
passing container vessels, amongst others. The Port Elizabeth harbour and adjacent retail area was
earmarked in 2002 for urban renewal by the Mandela Bay Development Agency, which could result
in the development of a waterfront within the existing Port Elizabeth harbour (SRK, 2008).
The coastline north of the Port Elizabeth harbour has been subject to substantial erosion due to the
impediment of sand deposition beyond the harbour breakwater. However, the re-establishment of
the North End beach via the pumping of sand across the breakwater has recently been mooted (SRK,
2008).
The northern peri-urban and rural beaches of Nelson Mandela Bay extend from the Swartkops River
mouth to the Sundays River mouth, forming part of the expansive Algoa Bay dunefield. These
beaches are predominated by sandy shores. The beaches provide excellent shore-angling
opportunities and play host to regular competitions. The beaches are well used for walking,
particularly for dogs. The beaches of Joost Park and Wells Estate are also very popular during the
summer months for swimming, sunbathing, picnicking and braaiing. The Algoa Bay section of
Nelson Mandela Bay is also home to 2 island groups, namely the Islands of the Cross (St Croix,
Jahleel, and Brenton islands) and the Bird Island group (Bird, Seal and Stag islands and the Black
Rocks outcrop), which are important roosting and breading sites for seabirds (SRK, 2008).
6.3.2 Biodiversity
The Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality is situated in the southern-eastern most corner of the Cape
Floristic Region (CFR), South Africa. The CFR is an area of exceptional floristic diversity and
endemism (Cowling and Hilton-Taylor, 1994). A conservation priority within the CFR is the
lowlands of the Nelson Mandela Metropole. Nelson Mandela Bay is an area of convergence of five
of South Africa's seven biomes; namely the Fynbos, Subtropical Thicket, Forest, Nama Karoo, and
Grassland biomes (Low & Rebelo, 1998). Such a concentration of biomes, particularly within a city,
is unparalleled in the world. The remaining natural habitats of the area are currently being severely
fragmented by urban development, industry, cultivation, grazing, mining and alien plant infestation
(SRK, 2009).
Based on the geographical location of Nelson Mandela Bay, tourism development is a major catalyst
for economic growth and a local strength. Bed-nights spent in Nelson Mandela Bay have been
consistently increasing with a 10% annual increase in the occupancy rate. The quality of the local
beaches is confirmed by the fact that no less than four beaches have Blue Flag status (IDP, 2009).
Nelson Mandela Bay is an excellent point from which to explore African big game and wildlife. The
City is situated within half an hour’s drive of world acclaimed game reserves with the Big Five and
which include the famous Addo National Elephant Park and Shamwari Game Reserve (IDP, 2009).
Known for its great biodiversity, the area has no less than five of the six land biomes in South
Africa. The region also contains three of the 21 internationally recognised biodiversity hotspots
(IDP, 2009).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 42
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
6.4 Built Environment
The development and expansion of Port Elizabeth, Uitenhage and Despatch since 1820 has taken
place in a fairly slow, yet steady manner. During this time a number of conservation areas (nature
reserves) were also established. However, a marked increase in urban development has taken place
in the now Nelson Mandela Bay municipal area since 2000, which reached a peak between 2003 and
2005 as a result of a national residential property boom (SRK, 2009). This has resulted in a
substantial recent loss of natural areas within the Municipality. Furthermore, difficulties in applying
sound land use planning and management principles have also resulted in inappropriate
developments at key locations within the Nelson Mandela Bay coastal zone (e.g. Noordhoek
Boathouses and the lower parts of the Blue Horizon Bay village) (SRK, 2009).
Urban residents around the world are becoming increasingly isolated from the natural environment,
with a consequent substantial decrease in awareness of the natural environment, and its value to
society, amongst city dwellers (Balmford, 2002). This phenomenon is particularly relevant within
the context of Nelson Mandela Bay, the Eastern Cape Province's largest city. However, conversely,
improved road infrastructure has provided greater access to the natural, cultural, historical and scenic
resources of Nelson Mandela Bay. This has provided increased opportunities for the residents of,
and visitors to, Nelson Mandela Bay to develop an appreciation for these resources and an increased
awareness of the pressures upon them (e.g. urban sprawl, coastal ribbon development, etc.) (SRK,
2009).
6.4.1 Land-use Trends
The steady international recovery of the Rand since late 2001, the strong management of inflation in
South Africa in recent years, steady economic growth, improved investor confidence in the country,
and reductions in domestic interest rates have all translated into greater private sector investment in
South Africa since 2001 as well as a boom in the national property market between 2002 and mid-
2006.
These factors, coupled with government's aggressive infrastructure development plan that includes
the development of the Ngqura Port and Coega Industrial Development Zone in Nelson Mandela
Bay, have resulted to a vastly increased demand for land for residential, commercial and industrial
purposes in the Municipality over the last five years (SRK, 2009).
In view of the growing economy and demand for food, intensive agriculture in the Municipality has
shown a moderate increase in land requirements, but this has been largely limited to chicken
batteries and piggeries that have primarily been established on existing agricultural lands (SRK,
2009).
However, the continued low returns experienced within the conventional extensive agricultural
sector (e.g. dairy and cattle farming) in the Municipality has further entrenched the long-standing
stagnation and decline of this sector. Responses to such pressures have resulted in either exits from
the sector entirely, a switch to other extensive agricultural practices (e.g. game farming), or the
adoption of beneficiation approaches. The overall result of these responses from a land use
perspective, coupled with the continued demand for land for residential, intensive agricultural and
industrial purposes, has been a negative growth in traditional extensive agricultural land use in the
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 43
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Municipality and the conversion of many farms to residential estates, game farms and lodges,
chicken batteries and piggeries, and industrial land (SRK, 2009).
The primary areas that have experience major residential growth have been Lorraine, Motherwell,
Blue Water Bay, Summerstrand, and Bloemendal. The primary areas that have experience major
industrial growth have been Coega and Greenbushes. The primary areas that have experience major
commercial growth have been Walmer, Newton Park and Motherwell.
The demand for land has also resulted in a marked increase in property values in recent years, which
began as early as 1999, peaked between 2003 and late 2004, and then began to slow slightly into
2006 and more so into 2007. The increase in values has continued in recent months, but at a
progressively reduced rate due to three upward adjustments in the interest rate (SRK, 2009).
6.5 Population and Socio-Economic Characteristics
6.5.1 Provincial Socio-Economic Trends
The Rapid Assessment of Service Delivery and Socio-Economic Survey conducted for the Eastern
Cape Province in 2006 recorded some information with regard to the Provincial Socio-economic
trends. Even though some of these aspects might not have a direct impact on the NMBM, it is
important to consider the indirect impact of these trends on the NMBM.
Migration: Migration is increasingly motivated by access to development and infrastructure. In the
1990s, the most dramatic shift was the establishment of hundreds of new informal settlements in
small towns. Inter-rural movement within same districts was a dominant trend. Long distance
migration saw former homeland residents (mostly men) pour into major metropolitan areas like Cape
Town while women opted for urban centers closer to home. After 2000 there was a striking new
tendency for women to engage in circular migration – joining the formal job sector in urban areas
while maintaining a strong attachment to their rural homes and kin. Metropolitan areas continue to
swell with an influx of migrants from rural areas and former homelands (ECP, 2006).
The following findings with regard to Poverty, Vulnerable Groups & Basic Service Delivery are
important from a disaster management point of view:
• Households were most likely to invest in funerals, reflecting HIV/Aids.
• In rural areas, especially former Ciskei and Transkei, 1/3 of households were headed by
women over 65.
• Three out of four informal settlement households had an income of less than R1500 a month.
• Urban households had, on average, twice as much access to services than rural households.
• 7 out of 10 urban households rated their municipality “bad” while about half rated their
municipality “very bad” (ECP, 2006).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 44
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
6.5.2 Population
Nelson Mandela Bay has a population of 1,1 million and covers an area of 1 950 km². It is estimated
that there are 289 000 households in formal areas. Although the situation changes constantly, the
most recent studies show that there are 38 000 households in informal areas and approximately 42
000 qualifying households in backyard shacks (IDP, 2009).
NMBM
City of Tshwane
City of Cape Town
City of
Johannesburg
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
Population Estimates
Source: 2007 Community Survey, StatsSA
Figure 6-6: Comparison of Population on Metropolita n Level
In comparison to other Metropolitan municipalities in South Africa, the NMBM has a total lower
population. The comparison between the NMBM population and neighbouring municipalities in the
Eastern Cape is shown below:
UkhahlambaCacadu
Alfred Nzo
Chris Hani
NMBM
Amatole
O.R.Tambo
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
Population Estimates
Source: 2007 Community Survey, StatsSA
Figure 6-7: Comparison of Population on Provincial Level
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 45
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Population density is an important factor for disaster management planning and risk assessments.
Figure 6-8 illustrates the variations of population density within the NMBM. Each dot represents a
100 people. The dots are, however, randomly placed, and do not necessarily represent a particular
settlement of suburb.
Source: StatsSA Census 2001
Figure 6-8: Population Density in the NMBM
The age profile of the NMBM also plays an important role in disaster management, especially with
regard to vulnerability and resilience indicators. Changes in the age profile over a particular time
period can also provide insight into the movement of people between areas. According to the IDP
(2009) 35% of NMB’s population is under 19 years of age. A comparison between the NMBM and
neighbouring municipalities in the Eastern Cape is provided below:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 46
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Based on: Community Survey 2007. StatsSA
Figure 6-9: Age Distribution (Comparison)
Based on the Figure 6-9, it can be seen that the NMBM has a comparatively lower percentage of
younger residents, but has a comparatively higher percentage of individuals over the age of mid-
twenty. This trend again changes at age groups of roughly above 60. The reason for this trend was
not confirmed, but it might be due to the movement of individuals from neighbouring municipalities
into the NMBM in search of jobs. Individuals not able to work (younger than early twenties, and
older than sixties) possible prefer to live in neighbouring local municipalities.
6.5.3 Education
There is a very strong correlation between level of education and standard of living. The poverty
rate among people in South Africa with no education is sixty nine percent (69%), compared with
fifty four percent (54%) among people with primary education, twenty four percent (24%) among
those with secondary education, and three percent (3%) among those with tertiary education
(Poverty and Inequality in South Africa, 1998). Poor households are characterized by a lack of wage
income; either as a result of unemployment or of low-paying employment due to lack of education,
and typically rely on multiple sources of income, which help reduce risk of suffering income poverty
(O’Connor, 1991). The provision of educational services and proper schooling is therefore a very
effective method of reducing poverty and thereby reducing vulnerability and disaster risk.
The level of education for individuals in the NMBM is shown in Figure 6-10:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 47
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
26.1%
36.5%
14.5%
5.4%2.7%
0.4%
3.9%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
Grade 0 - 7 Grade 8 - 12 Grade 12 C Cert & Dipl Degree M/PHD No Schooling
Level of Education
Based on: Community Survey 2007. StatsSA
Figure 6-10: Level of Education in the NMBM
According to the IDP (2009) 66% of the NMBM population older than 20 years do not have matric,
while 20% of residents have no or limited schooling (IDP, 2009).
6.5.4 Employment
Employment levels can impact significantly on the vulnerability and resilience profiles of the
NMBM. According to the IDP (2009) the current unemployment rate in the NBMB is estimated at
approximately 35%, while 107 239 of the total number of 289 000 households (37%) are classified
as indigent (poor). It is further estimated that 44% of households access at least one social grant, and
that the NMBM has a 30% HIV/AIDS Prevalence rate according to Antenatal care statistics (IDP,
2009).
6.5.5 Household Income
The relatively low levels of educational attainment and high levels of unemployment amongst
economically active individuals play out in low household incomes, shown in Figure 6-11.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 48
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
11.10% 11.20%
34.40%
20.90%
10.70%
1.00% 0.30%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
No income R1 - R9 600 R9 601 -
R38 400
R38 401 -
R153 600
R153 601 -
R614 400
R614 401 -
R2 457 600
R2 457 601
or more
Annual Household Income
Based on: Community Survey 2007. StatsSA
Figure 6-11: Annual Household Income
The majority of households in the NMBM receive income below the minimum household
subsistence level of R19,200 per year, with more than a fifth receiving no income at all (IDP, 2009).
The income levels shown here have an adverse impact on households’ ability to provide adequate
shelter and nutrition, to contribute to rates and taxes, and to create circumstances conducive to
learning and self-development (IDP, 2009). A comparison between the household income levels of
the NMBM and neighboring municipalities are shown below:
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
No
inc
om
e R1
R4
80
1
R9
60
1
R1
9 2
01
R3
8 4
01
R7
6 8
01
R1
53
60
1
R3
07
20
1
R6
14
40
1
R1
22
8 8
01
R2
45
7 6
01
+
Annual Household Income (Comparison)
NMBM
Cacadu
Amatole
Chris Hani
DC14: Ukhahlamba
O.R.Tambo
Alfred Nzo
Based on: Community Survey 2007. StatsSA
Figure 6-12: Annual Household Income (Comparison)
Based on Figure 6-12, the NMBM generally has a lower percentage of households with an annual
income of less than +/- R20 000 compared to the majority of the neighbouring municipalities, and
has a comparatively larger percentage of households with an annual income more than +/- R20 000.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 49
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
6.6 Industrial and Economic Activities
Industrial and economic activity is a key indicator with regard to the vulnerability of the NMBM
economy to particular hazards. For example, in economies that rely heavily on agriculture for
income, hazards such as droughts, severe storms or animal disease can cause severe disruption to
communities. The economy of the NMBM is discussed below:
6.6.1 Sectoral Contribution
Manufacturing is the single largest contributor to the Geographical Growth Value Add (GGVA) in
the NMBM (31,1%) followed by Community Services (27%). Figure 6-13 below indicates the
sectoral contribution to the GGVA of Nelson Mandela Bay.
0.3%
0.7%1.6%
2.4%
9.7%13.2%
14.1%
27.0%
31.1%
Sectoral Contribution
Mining
Agriculture
Electricity
Construction
Transport
Trade
Finance
Community Services
Manufacturing
Source: IDP, 2009 (Census 2001, Statistics South Africa)
Figure 6-13: Sectoral Contribution to GGVA
6.6.2 Economy
Whilst Nelson Mandela Bay is undoubtedly an important node of activity within the Eastern Cape
and within the national and global contexts, some weaknesses exist, which include the dominance of
the automotive sector, which is prone to global economic volatility. Insufficient and unreliable
energy sources also pose a major obstacle (IDP, 2009).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 50
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Countering these weaknesses would inter alia require the following (IDP, 2009):
• Diversification of the economy.
• Investment in intellectual capital, creativity and technical capability of the labour force through skills development.
• Acceleration of public and private sector investment.
• Provision of entrepreneurship support.
Amongst the strengths of the local economy are (IDP, 2009):
• A relatively young population (37% under 19 years and 26% under 40 years).
• A high quality natural coastal environment.
• Enormous tourism potential, with five of the six biomes in South Africa present in the area; important heritage sites; four Blue Flag beaches; and in the vicinity of major internationally acclaimed game reserves.
• Vast tracks of government-owned land.
• Higher education institutions with recognized sectoral expertise (training and capacity development).
• Good transport connectivity.
• A well-established manufacturing infrastructure.
• Coega infrastructure.
Weaknesses include the following (IDP, 2009):
• Shortage of technical skills.
• Lack of diversification in local economy.
• Inadequate investment in maintenance and upgrading of infrastructure.
• Poor ICT connectivity.
• Absence of regular and updated local economic statistics.
• Inadequate packaging of tourism and marketing initiatives.
Acknowledging the strengths and attending to the weaknesses of the local economy as well as
maximising the available opportunities will go a long way in boosting the local economy (IDP,
2009).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 51
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
6.6.3 Tourism
Based on the geographical location of Nelson Mandela Bay, tourism development is a major catalyst
for economic growth and a local strength. Bed-nights spent in Nelson Mandela Bay have been
consistently increasing with a 10% annual increase in the occupancy rate. The quality of the local
beaches is confirmed by the fact that no less than four beaches have Blue Flag status (IDP, 2009).
Nelson Mandela Bay is an excellent point from which to explore African big game and wildlife. The
City is situated within half an hour’s drive of world acclaimed game reserves with the Big Five and
which include the famous Addo National Elephant Park and Shamwari Game Reserve (IDP, 2009).
Known for its great biodiversity, the area has no less than five of the six land biomes in South
Africa. The region also contains three of the 21 internationally recognized biodiversity hotspots.
The beachfront is the city’s greatest natural asset, totaling approximately 100 km of beach and
coastline. This largely underdeveloped and unexploited area has the potential of forming the
foundation of a thriving tourism, recreation and holiday industry (IDP, 2009).
6.6.4 Mineral Resources and Mining
Despite being a key industry in South Africa, mining is one of the smallest production sectors in the
Eastern Cape Province. The area is fairly poorly gifted with mineral deposits in the coastal zone and
throughout the Nelson Mandela Bay area. Consequently, these resources make a very small
contribution to the municipal Gross Domestic Product (GDP), except for the production of table and
laboratory salt (Department of Minerals and Energy, 2002 in SRK, 2008). Limestone, dune sand
(quartz), quartzitic sandstone and clay are mined at locations throughout the Municipality. No
economically viable gas or oil fields have been located off-shore of the Municipality's beaches,
despite comprehensive seismic surveys (Toerien and Hill, 1989).
6.7 Housing and Service Delivery
Housing and services delivery is one of the key indicators of community vulnerability within any
area. The IDP prioritizes housing and service delivery by identifying the following three IDP
priorities (IDP, 2009):
• Provision of quality housing;
• Provision of community amenities and facilities; and
• Development, provision and maintenance of infrastructure;
Housing and service delivery in the NMBM are discussed in more detail below.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 52
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
6.7.1 Housing
According to the IDP (2009), the Municipality has, since 2000, constructed 34 081 low-cost houses.
The current housing backlog is estimated at approximately 80 000 units. The census 2001 statistics
provides an overview of the distribution of housing in the NMBM. This is shown in the figure
below:
Based on: 2001 Census Data. StatsSA
Figure 6-14: Distribution of Dwelling type in the N MBM.
Figure 6-14 provides an overview of the dominant type of housing in different parts of the NMBM.
The identified areas are rated according to the type of housing (either formal, informal or
traditional). The results from the StatsSA community survey also offer some insight into the
distribution of the type of housing in the NMBM.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 53
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
85.10%
0.70%
13.70%
0.40%0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
Formal Structure Traditional
Dwelling
Informal Dwelling Other
Type of Main Dwelling
Based on: Community Survey 2007. StatsSA
Figure 6-15: Type of Main Dwelling
From Figure 6-15 it is clear that the majority of main dwelling types in the NMBM are considered
‘formal structures’. Figure 6-16 offers a comparison of the types of housing in the NMBM,
compared to neighbouring municipalities in the Eastern Cape.
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
100.00%
Formal
Structure
Traditional
Dwelling
Informal
Dwelling
Other
Type of Main Dwelling (Comparison)
NMBM
Cacadu
Amatole
Chris Hani
Ukhahlamba
O.R.Tambo
Alfred Nzo
Based on: Community Survey 2007. StatsSA
Figure 6-16: Type of Main Dwelling (Comparison)
Based on this comparison, the NMBM is shown to have a much higher percentage of formal
structures than some of the other municipalities. The only municipality that compares well with the
NMBM is the Cacadu district, but this comparison does not take the total number of people in each
of the municipalities into account.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 54
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
6.7.2 Water
Access to water is another key indicator determining the vulnerability of a community. According to
the StatsSA Community Survey (2007), the NMBM provides piped water to inhabitants as shown in
Figure 6-17:
71.00%
16.40%
11.00%
0.60% 0.20% 0.70%0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
Piped water
inside
dwelling
Piped water
inside yard
Piped water
outside yard
Borehole Rain water
tank
Other
Access to Water
Based on: Community Survey 2007. StatsSA
Figure 6-17: Access to Water
In comparing the access to water between the NMBM and neighbouring municipalities, it is shown
that the population in the NMBM has better access to piped water than some of the communities in
neighbouring municipalities.
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
Pip
ed
wa
ter
insi
de
dw
ell
ing
Pip
ed
wa
ter
insi
de
yard
Pip
ed
wa
ter
ou
tsid
e
yard B
ore
ho
le
Sp
rin
g
Da
m/p
oo
l
Riv
er/
stre
am
Ve
nd
or
Ra
in w
ate
r ta
nk
Oth
er
Access to Water (Comparison)
NMBM
Cacadu
Amatole
Chris Hani
Ukhahlamba
O.R.Tambo
Alfred Nzo
Based on: Community Survey 2007. StatsSA
Figure 6-18: Access to Water (Comparison)
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 55
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
The IDP (2009) identifies that altogether 100% of households in the NMBM have access to a basic
level of water within a 200 m radius. The IDP (2009) places a further emphasis on water service
delivery and infrastructure development. The following is an extract from the IDP:
Water service delivery and Infrastructure development planning in the IDP
The Integrated Development Plan 2006 – 2011 of the NMBM contains a section on the Service
delivery and infrastructure development. This also contains a description on the development of
Water Services. Key extracts of the development plan is provided below:
Water services
“With the publication of the Water Services Act (Act 108 of 1997), all South African water services
authorities were required to prepare a Water Services Development Plan (WSDP). The WSDP is a
business plan setting out the way in which a specific water services authority plan delivers water
services to individuals and businesses in its area of jurisdiction. It also describes the current and
future consumer profile, the types of services that are provided, the infrastructure requirements, a
water balance, organizational and financial arrangements to be used, an assessment of the viability of
the approach, and an overview of environmental issues. Following these analyses, important issues
that may impact on the provision of effective and sustainable water and sanitation services need to
be identified and strategies must be formulated to improve service provision.
The Municipality’s revised WSDP (2006), which is applicable over a five-year period, recommends
new capital projects for its Capital Budget. A longer-term analysis and integration of future water
demand and infrastructure are, however, necessary. In order to address the latter, a Water Master
Plan (WMP) was approved by Council in October 2007.
The WMP is a plan that identifies the gaps in the provision of water to meet the needs set out in the
WSDP. The WMP is a longer-term plan that covers the period up to 2020, far extending beyond the
five-year period covered by the WSDP so as to meet the long-term water requirements of Nelson
Mandela Bay.
Key strategic goals and challenges
In addition to the Water Services Act, the Municipality’s WSDP is informed by the National
Strategic Framework for Water Services (September 2003), which is a critical policy document that
sets out the future national approach to the provision of water services. Key focus areas of the Water
Services Delivery Plan include the following:
(a) Provision of free basic water.
(b) Development of a comprehensive Water Management Strategy.
(c) Transformation of the Municipality into a world-class water service provider.
(d) Financial accountability and sustainability.
(e) Establishment of a comprehensive Customer Care and Management Strategy.
(f) Ensuring quality (regular testing of water to ensure that it meets the required standard),
sustainable and affordable services to all.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 56
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Critical challenges
(a) Meeting the national target for the provision of basic services to all by 2008 (for water) and 2010
(for sanitation).
(b) Accelerating the eradication of basic service backlogs.
(c) Successful implementation of the Water Demand Management Strategy and achieving the
targeted reduction.
(d) Timeous provision of infrastructure to meet developmental growth needs.
(e) Maintenance of infrastructure to ensure continued operation.
(f) Limited financial resources.
The strategies to address these challenges are presented below.
Strategies to address challenges
(a) Detailed planning and financial provision for infrastructure capacity upgrade are required over
the period 2007 – 2009 to increase the treatment and transfer capacities of the bulk supply system
from the “restricted” yield of 250 Ml/day supplied from all sources to the “unrestricted” yield of
some 278 Ml/day.
(b) The Municipality is prioritising the implementation of a Water Demand Management Programme
to accelerate and achieve an overall saving in water usage of more than 20 Ml/day. Currently, the
Programme is implemented by metering all connections, replacing old meters with new ones,
developing a meter replacing programme for large industrial meters, and metering all standpipes to
informal settlements.
During the 2009/10 financial year, the framework for the established of a Water Demand
Management Unit (WMDU) will be in place. Once the Unit is established it will develop a clear
strategy that will address the WDM over the short to long term.
(c) One of the options to increase the water resources capacity of the NMBMM is the use of sea
water.
(d) A detailed plan for a Return Effluent Scheme to treat and supply water from the Fishwater Flats
Wastewater Treatment Works to Coega IDZ will be implemented through a public-private
partnership.
(e) The conclusion of the Bulk Water Supply Agreement (Orange River Project) between the
NMBMM and the Department of Water Affairs and Forestry (DWAF) will be expedited.
(f) The NMBMM must consider the implementation of a Service Levies Policy for all new
subdivisions and developments to ensure that capital is available for ad hoc service extensions.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 57
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
6.7.3 Energy
Access and sources of energy not only influence the hazard profile of an area, but also have an
impact on the health and vulnerability of communities. The figure below is based on the StatsSA
2007 Community survey results, and provides an overview of the access to energy for cooking and
heating in the NMBM.
Electricity Gas Paraffin Wood CoalAnimal
dungSolar Other
Cooking 85.30% 1.10% 13.20% 0.30% 0.00% 0.00% 0 0
Heating 74.30% 0.60% 21.10% 1.90% 0.10% 0.00% 0 2.00%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Energy for Cooking and Heating
Based on: Community Survey 2007. StatsSA
Figure 6-19: Energy for Cooking and Heating in the NMBM
In comparing the general source of energy used for cooking in the NMBM. It is shown that the
NMBM population groups have comparatively more access to electricity for cooking than
communities in some of the neighbouring municipalities.
Based on: Community Survey 2007. StatsSA
Figure 6-20: Energy for Cooking (Comparison)
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 58
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
The IDP (2009) further indicates that altogether 97% of households in formally demarcated
municipal residential areas have access to a basic level of electricity. However, there are challenges
around the increase in electricity tariffs (IDP 2009). The IDP further places emphasis on electricity
service delivery – the following is a section from the IDP:
Electricity service delivery and Infrastructure development planning in the IDP
The Integrated Development Plan 2006 – 2011 of the NMBM contains a section on the Service
delivery and infrastructure development. This also contains a description on the provision of
Electricity Services. Key extracts of the development plan is provided below.
Provision of electricity
The Municipality is faced with the major challenge of ensuring that all households in Nelson
Mandela Bay, both in formal and informal areas, have access to electricity. Although currently 97%
of households on officially surveyed sites have access to electricity, the Municipality is mindful of
the remainder of our residents who are staying in informal areas (IDP 2009).
Furthermore, the Municipality, as is the rest of the country, is faced with the problem of load
shedding and the resultant distribution disruptions. This highlights the need to save and conserve
energy. In this regard, the Municipality is investigating the use of alternative renewable energy
sources, such as wind turbines, solar heating and electricity generation from solid waste. A number
of other energy-efficient measures are being introduced. An Energy Efficiency Centre has been
established in conjunction with business and academia in order to promote energy efficiency in the
Metro (IDP 2009).
The Municipality also needs to eliminate electricity losses, either from technical causes or through
theft. Technical losses are minimised through infrastructure maintenance. The Municipality is also
expected to provide the necessary infrastructure to support investment and future growth (IDP 2009).
6.7.4 Sanitation
Sanitation is also a key consideration, influencing both the vulnerability and hazard profile of
communities. Based on the StatsSA 2007 Community Survey results, a large percentage of
communities in the NMBM have access to flush toilets. A comparison with regards to access to
toilet facilities between the NMBM and other municipalities is shown in Figure 6-21.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 59
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
85.0%
2.6%0.5% 0.4%
4.0%
0.1%5.9%
1.5%0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
Flush
(sewerage
system)
Flush
(septic tank)
Dry toilet Pit toilet
(ventilation)
Pit toilet Chemical
toilet
Bucket toilet
system
None
Toilet Facilities
Based on: Community Survey 2007. StatsSA
Figure 6-21: Access to Toilet Facilities in the NMB M
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Flush (sewerage
system)
Flush
(septic tank)
Dry toilet Pit toilet
(ventilation)
Pit toilet Chemical toilet Bucket toilet
system
None
Toilet Facilities (Comparison)
NMBM Cacadu Amatole Chris Hani Ukhahlamba O.R.Tambo Alfred Nzo
Based on: Community Survey 2007. StatsSA
Figure 6-22: Access to Toilet Facilities (Compariso n)
The IDP (2009) indicates that altogether 91% of households have access to a basic level of
sanitation. The IDP places further emphasis on sanitation service delivery – the following is an
extract from the IDP:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 60
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Sanitation service delivery and Infrastructure development planning in the IDP
The Integrated Development Plan 2006 – 2011 of the NMBM contains a section on the Service
delivery and infrastructure development. This also contains a description on the provision of
sanitation. Key extracts of the development plan is provided below.
Provision of sanitation
Access to sanitation is a vital prerequisite for restoring the dignity of local communities. In addition
to the provision of water, sanitation is therefore a key focus area of the Municipality. Currently, 16
000 households do not have access to a basic level of sanitation, as they are being serviced through
the bucket system. It should be noted that this figure of 16 000 households excludes the sharing of
buckets by more than one informal household (IDP 2009).
A Sanitation Master Plan is being developed to meet the long-term needs of Nelson Mandela Bay, as
well as the national sanitation target for 2010. It will be approved during the 2009/10 financial year.
The Plan will cover the current sanitation status and future requirements in terms of anticipated
growth. In addition to the provision of sanitation in the formal areas, the Municipality is also
focusing on alternative sanitation technology in the informal areas. Studies in this regard have been
concluded and the results are being evaluated for implementation (IDP 2009).
6.7.5 Health
According to the IDP (2009) the Municipality is mandated to provide quality primary health and
environmental services to all its inhabitants and occupational health, safety and wellness to its
employees. Functional areas under primary health include HIV and AIDS, TB management and
control, health care for women and children, and the provision, upgrading and management of
municipal public health facilities. Environmental services cover functional areas such as
environmental management, waste management, parks and environmental health.
The Municipality is faced with the following public health challenges:
(a) High levels of HIV and AIDS and TB.
(b) Insufficient and delayed subsidies from the Province.
(c) Environmental challenges.
(d) Illegal dumping.
To address these challenges, the Municipality initiated a number of intervention programmes as
detailed below (IDP 2009):
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 61
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
(a) Integrated Environmental Plan
An Integrated Environmental Plan is one of the key sector plans of the IDP. The key components of
the Integrated Environmental Plan are the following:
• Environmental Management Systems (EMS), which is under implementation.
• State of Environment Report (SoER), which is developed annually.
• Nelson Mandela Open Space System (NMMOSS), which is under implementation.
• Integrated Waste Management Plan (IWMP), which is under implementation.
• Coastal Management Plan (CMP), which is under implementation.
• Water Master Plan (WMP), which is under implementation.
• Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Strategies, which are under implementation.
• Greening Policy, which is under implementation (IDP 2009).
The following key plans and strategies are under development:
• Bioregional Plan (BP), to be completed by June 2010.
• Environmental Management Framework (EMF) to be completed by June 2010.
• Integrated Air Quality Management Plan (IAQMP), to be completed by June 2010 (IDP 2009).
Key health statistics in the NMBM as identified by the IDP (2009) include:
• Nelson Mandela Bay has 41 permanent and satellite municipal clinics and 13 mobile clinics;
these include three day hospitals and 9 Eastern Cape Department Clinics.
There are eight hospitals (four provincial and four private) in the NMBM.
• Since 2000, nine primary health care clinics have been built and ten have been upgraded.
• Nurse to patient ratio in the NMBM is – 1:43.
Results from a self-evaluation capacity assessment of health related role-players are discussed in
Section 9.1.4.
6.7.6 Waste Management
Waste management not only influences the vulnerability and hazard profile of human populations,
but can also have a severe impact on environmental quality in the NMBM. The NMBM Waste
Management Sub-directorate provides an appropriate general waste collection service to households
and businesses; cleansing services (incorporating street sweeping, litter picking, removal of illegal
dumping on municipal public open spaces) as well as operates general waste landfill sites and
transfer stations (NMBM 2010a).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 62
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
According to the NMBM (2010a), the achievements during 2007/08 with regard to Waste
Management IDP targets included:
• Total number of households with basic level of solid waste removal (formal, informal & peri-
urban): 275 441 households;
• Number of new households provided during 2007/08 financial year with basic level of solid
waste removal: 934 households (458 in formal urban areas: kerbside collection; 358 in informal
urban areas & 118 new households in informal peri-urban areas: communal service) versus the
IDP target of 500 households. In addition to the 934 new service, 790 households initially
provided with NMBM communal service in previous financial years were upgraded to a
kerbside wheely bin service;
• Implementation of Community Based Cleansing Programmes (Ward Based Cleaning
Programme; Ward Based Litter picking Awareness and Major Routes Cleaning Programme);
and
• Number of Integrated Waste Management Plan projects implemented: reported below under
IWMP Projects.
The NMBM (2010a) also indicated that the NMBM implement a number of IWMP projects:
• Waste Exchange Project: The Waste Management Sub-directorate successfully launched a
Waste Exchange Project i.e. a recognized waste reduction method which is viewed as a virtual
meeting place that links waste generators with possible users of waste.
• Waste Management Bylaws: Uniform bylaws incorporating bylaws from the erstwhile
municipalities (Port Elizabeth, Uitenhage, Despatch and Western District Council areas) were
finalised during the 2007/08 financial year. Such milestone should assist in amongst other issues
combating of illegal dumping.
• Continuous implementation and support to Cooperatives: The existing eight Community
Cooperatives rendering waste management services implemented their cleansing and waste
collection functions with eagerness during the 2007/08 financial year, resulting in the Cleanest
Town evaluation complementing the NMBM approach in building capacity for entrepreneurs
while rendering an essential municipal service. The ninth Cooperative for Colchester will
commence during the first quarter of the 2008/09 financial year.
• Introduction of the Benchmarking Project between City of Gothernburg and NMBM: The
project aims to benchmark (i.e. analyze and compare) Customer Care Systems between NMBM
and the City of Gothenburg. Some of the objectives include: creating an understanding of how
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 63
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Customer Care can be more effectively used as an indicator of the public opinion on service
delivery & improvement of the understanding of acceptable levels of performance.
• Introduction of a uniform system of the Litter picking & Awareness Programme: In April
2007, a uniform approach in the implementation of the previous three to four litter picking
project. The uniform approach has ensured that all volunteers have operating specifications (5
hours, 5 days/week, rotating on 2 monthly basis with a stipend of R6 and R8.50 for Participants
and Supervisors respectively). Further, environmental awareness has also been incorporated in
the revised programme.
• Transfer Stations:
o Better management of the formal transfer stations: five formal transfer stations were
outsourced to local entrepreneurs during the 2007/08 financial year leading to better
management of the sites. The entrepreneurs have also been given a responsibility to
recover any recyclable waste materials. It should be noted that the use of local
entrepreneurs and the close proximity of the transfer stations has earned the NMBM
favourable points on the Cleanest Town Competition.
o New transfer stations: construction of the Motherwell site (Gogo Street) funded by the
Department of Environmental Affairs & Tourism is near completion.
o Informal transfer stations: 10 sites located in Motherwell, Ibhayi and Northern areas
have been upgraded (fenced, lockable gates, gravelled for easy access) during the
financial year.
• Rendering of Waste Management Services using Community Cooperatives (Impumelelo
Awards): In 2005, Waste Management appointed five Community Cooperatives to render its
waste management services (waste collection, cleansing and transportation of such waste to a
permitted waste disposal site) for a three year period. The contract made provision for support
(training on business, waste management and interpersonal skills) as well as a monitoring &
evaluation process coupled with implementation of penalties in cases on non- performance.
According to the IDP (2009) altogether 100% of formal households have access to a basic level of
solid waste collection services within the urban edge. There are, however, challenges around illegal
dumping and the provision of basic level of service to peri-urban areas. The figures below provide
an overview of the waste management in the NMBM as well as neighbouring municipalities.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 64
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
76.70%
11.30% 3.40% 3.50% 4.70% 0.40%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Removed at
least once a
week
Removed
less often
Communal
refuse
dump
Own refuse
dump
No disposal Other
Refuse Disposal
Based on: Community Survey 2007. StatsSA
Figure 6-23: Refuse Removal
76.70%
11.30%3.40% 3.50%
4.70%0.40%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
Re
mo
ve
d a
t le
ast
on
ce
a w
ee
k
Re
mo
ve
d le
ss
oft
en
Co
mm
un
al
refu
se
du
mp
Ow
n r
efu
se d
um
p
No
dis
po
sal
Oth
er
Refuse Removal (Comparison)
NMBM
Cacadu
Amatole
Chris Hani
Ukhahlamba
O.R.Tambo
Alfred Nzo
Based on: Community Survey 2007. StatsSA
Figure 6-24: Refuse Removal (Comparison)
The IDP (2009) also addresses the issue of waste management services in the NMBM. The
following is an extract of the IDP:
The Municipality is responsible for providing quality, sustainable waste management services to the
people of Nelson Mandela Bay in order to ensure a clean and healthy environment. In this regard,
the Municipality provides a general waste collection and cleansing service to its residents and
operates general waste landfill sites and transfer stations.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 65
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
In line with the National Waste Management Strategy, the Municipality developed an Integrated
Waste Management Plan (IWMP), with the aim of integrating and optimizing waste management, in
order to maximize efficiency and minimize the associated environmental impacts and financial costs.
In line with the National Environmental Management Waste Bill, the Municipality is implementing a
number of projects in terms of the Integrated Waste Management Plan. These projects focus on the
following:
• Waste minimization e.g. an in-house Paper Recycling Project in five of its main paper
generating buildings.
• A Source Separation Recycling Project in Blue Horizon Bay.
• An Electronic Waste Exchange Project.
These projects emanate from the partnership with the City of Göteborg under the Swedish
International Development Agency (IDP 2009).
Table 6-1: IWMP Projects and Status.
Project No Project Title Project Status
1 Inventory of Waste Streams 1 & 2 Differed
2 Development of Waste Information System (WIS) Completed
3 Pilot project: Collection/treatment system for household hazardous waste Differed
4 Development of a medical waste strategy Cancelled
5 Public Awareness Strategy & Campaign Completed
6 Baseline Public Awareness Study and Continued Monitoring Completed
7 Development of mobile waste exhibition In Progress
8 Waste Education at schools In Progress
9 MRF Feasibility Study, Stage II To be implemented in
2009/2010
10 Recycling in Municipal buildings In Progress
11 Kwa-Magxaki Recycling Centre In Progress
12 Motherwell Buy-Back centre In Progress
13 International inventory of recycling projects Differed
14 Forum for Recyclers Cancelled
15 Pilot project: Coloured bag system In Progress
16 Strategy for Waste Management for 2010 Cup In Progress
17 Development of Digital Waste Exchange Completed
18 Pilot backyard/community composting in low income areas Differed
19 Pilot community composting in Colchester Cancelled
20 Pilot backyard composting at Blue Horizon Bay Differed
21 Closure and Rehabilitation of Waste Sites In Progress
22 ISO 14001 compliance at Waste sites In Progress
23 Additional transfer stations/recycling centres In Progress
24 Development of new Metro Waste By-laws Completed
25 Disposal Certificate for Builder's Rubble Cancelled
26 Legislative review Cancelled
27 Review of Cost Recovery/ Equalisation of Tariffs Completed
28 Feasibility Study: Green Procurement In Progress
29 Feasibility Study: Differentiated Tariff System Differed
30 IWMP Awareness Campaign Completed
31 Induction Course Completed
32 Networking with other Municipalities Completed
33 Best practise manual Differed
34 Waste Co-operatives Completed
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 66
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
6.7.7 Safety and security
According to the IDP (2009) the safety and security of all residents, the business community, tourists
and property is a key focus area of this Municipality. In this regard, the Municipality focuses on
crime prevention, disaster management, road and traffic safety, as well as fire and emergency
services. The full participation of all stakeholders, including residents and the business community,
is required to address the challenges around safety and security.
The IDP (2009) identifies a number of programmes that have been developed to address these
challenges. They are discussed in the following extract from the IDP:
Crime Prevention Strategy
The Municipality developed a comprehensive Crime Prevention Strategy, which provides a basic
framework for crime reduction. The objectives of this Crime Prevention Strategy are to:
(a) Assist the SAPS and other state organs to prevent and reduce crime in the NMB area.
(b) Promote community safety awareness.
(c) Promote public knowledge and involvement in community safety structures (IDP 2009).
The components of our Crime Prevention Strategy are:
(a) Development and implementation of effective partnerships with the community and other key stakeholders.
(b) Supporting effective policing and law enforcement through technological aids such as CCTV cameras.
(c) Establishment of a municipal Police Service.
(d) Provision of effective By-law enforcement services.
(e) Protection of municipal assets and staff (IDP 2009).
Disaster Management Plan
The Municipality developed a Disaster Management Plan, which ensures that proactive measures are
put in place to prevent or mitigate the effects of disasters (IDP 2009).
Disaster management is aimed at:
(a) Preventing or reducing the risk of disasters.
(b) Mitigating the severity or consequences of disasters.
(c) Emergency preparedness.
(d) A rapid and effective response to disasters.
(e) Post-disaster recovery and rehabilitation.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 67
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
The Disaster Management Plan takes into account the vulnerability of the various communities and
prioritises the potential risk accordingly. To mobilize all stakeholders, a Disaster Management
Advisory Forum and local disaster management committees were established (IDP 2009). The key
disaster management focus areas are as follows:
(a) Creating a sustainable municipal institutional capacity for disaster management.
(b) Introducing effective risk reduction strategies.
(c) Disaster risk management planning and the implementation thereof.
(d) Effective disaster response, relief and recovery.
(e) Enhancing public awareness and preparedness, disaster risk management research,
education and training.
(f) Evaluating and improving disaster management implementation in Nelson Mandela Bay.
Fire, traffic and other emergencies
To enhance fire safety, the Municipality has embarked on a programme to upgrade and replace its
fire and emergency vehicles and equipment. Furthermore, an operational 24-hour traffic control
service has been introduced throughout Nelson Mandela Bay (IDP 2009).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 68
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
6.8 Infrastructure
6.8.1 Roads
A well-maintained road network is the cornerstone of a safe and convenient transport system for
commuters and private motorists, and for commerce and industry. According to the IDP (2009),
central to an effective and well-maintained road network in the NMBM are the following
management systems:
(a) Road Management System;
(b) Bridge Management System; and
(c) Road Sign Management System.
Also important is the development and implementation of a Stormwater Master Plan, traffic calming
measures and the tarring of roads (IDP 2009). The primary road system in Nelson Mandela Bay
comprises the following road categories:
Table 6-2: Road Categories in the NMBM.
Road Category Length (Km)
National Roads 35
Provincial Trunk Roads 81
Provincial Rural Main Roads 264
Provincial District Roads 196
Provincial Minor Roads 240
Provincial Urban Main Roads and Roads of Metropolitan
Significance (main public transport routes) 417
Minor Roads (surfaced) 2 244
Minor Roads (un-surfaced) 630
Total Length 4 104
Source: IDP 2009 (Census 2001, Statistics South Africa)
Roads provide the primary form of access to the coast in Nelson Mandela Bay. The limited
transportation systems in the Municipality restrict access to the coast to transport by private vehicles,
taxis, bus services, private boat or foot (SRK, 2008).
Road access to the coast of Nelson Mandela Bay is excellent, providing good quality roads for both
residents and travelling visitors. The major road in Nelson Mandela Bay is the N2. A number of
well-built secondary roads link the N2 with the coast. Two of the most important coastal roads are
Marine Drive, extending from Summerstrand to Schoenmakerskop, and the main Seaview Road,
extending from Lovemore Heights to Seaview. The road signage and the overall quality of Marine
Drive from the Summerstrand Hotel to Schoenmakerskop must be improved (SRK, 2008). The main
Seaview Road offers access to Sardinia Bay, Kini Bay, Beachview and Maitland River mouth via
arterial roads. A cul-de sac road provides access to Blue Horizon Bay and van Stadens River mouth
from the N2. The travelling distance and limited access to these areas due to the cul-de-sac and
arterial roads restricts the number of users of the coastal zone in these sensitive coastal areas (SRK,
2008).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 69
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Currently, access to the coast between the Swartkops and Sundays River mouths is provided via
access points at Blue Water Bay beach, Joost Park and Wells Estate and a series of access roads that
run parallel to the coast between these areas. The roads are located as little as 40 m from the high
water mark in places and should be reviewed in terms of their environmental impact and long-term
viability. No public access to the coast to the east of the Coega River mouth is currently available.
Parking for coastal visitors along the Nelson Mandela Bay beach front is adequate throughout most
of the year. However, traffic congestion is experienced around Kings Beach, Shark Rock Pier and
Wells Estate during the peak holiday seasons of Christmas and Easter. Critical parking problems are
experienced on Boxing Day when more than 100 000 people flock to the beaches (weather
permitting), but due to this being a once-off annual event, additional parking provisions cannot be
justified (SRK, 2008).
6.9 Facilities
Facilities in the NMBM not only serve the normal functions of education or recreation, but can also
support disaster capacity building or disaster response activities in the NMBM.
6.9.1 Education Facilities
According to the IDP (2009) Nelson Mandela Bay possesses excellent educational facilities, which
include:
• A total of 273 schools;
• One university (the Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University), which has 20 000 students; and
• Four technical colleges and two Further Education and Training (FET) institutions, namely the
Port Elizabeth College and the Midlands College (IDP 2009).
The Municipality furthermore has a total of 22 libraries, and has embarked on a process of
computerizing its libraries, equipping each with a full office package and internet and e-mail
facilities (IDP 2009).
6.9.2 Community Facilities
Community facilities not only provides space for recreational and other activities to community
members, but can also be used during disaster risk reduction or response initiatives. A number of
community facilities can be identified in the NMBM (IDP, 2009), and includes:
• 31 Community and municipal halls;
• 13 Customer Care Centres;
• 22 Libraries;
• 79 Sports facilities;
• 19 Beaches;
• 18 Pools; and
• 1438 Developed Open Spaces.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report 70
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
6.10 The IDP and Disaster Management
The Integrated Development Plan (IDP) is the NMBM’s principal strategic planning document. The
aim of the IDP is to enhance integrated service delivery and development and to promote
sustainable, integrated communities, providing a full basket of services, as communities cannot be
developed in a fragmented manner. As the key strategic plan of the Municipality, the priorities
identified in the IDP inform all financial planning and budgeting undertaken by the institution.
6.10.1 Key IDP Priorities in the NMBM
The priorities identified in the IDP also have an important influence on disaster risk reduction and
disaster planning in the NMBM. The ideal is that the IDP priorities and strategic focus should be
aligned with disaster risk reduction requirements for the municipality.
During the 2009 IDP process, a number of key priorities were identified in the municipality (IDP
2009). These key priorities have emerged from the consultation processes, which have shaped the
IDP. Some of the key priorities were:
• Provision and expedition of basic service delivery;
• Crime prevention;
• Elimination of illegal dumping;
• Provision of quality housing;
• Provision of community amenities and facilities;
• Development, provision and maintenance of infrastructure;
• Poverty eradication and job creation;
• Provision of health services and combating diseases such as TB, HIV and AIDS;
• Special sector development (youth, disabled and women); and
• Responsive, people-centred and integrated institution.
The majority of these priorities do have some bearing on aspects that are important in a disaster
management context, and are being discussed in more detail in this report.
6.10.2 IDP Five Year Performance Plan
The IDP (2009) outlines the Five Year Performance Plan with regards to a number of Key
Performance Elements. Below is an extract of the IDP Five Year Performance Plan, with identified
Disaster Management (risk reduction through managing hazards, vulnerabilities and resilience)
related focus activities.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 71
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Five Year Performance Plan (IDP 2009). Key
Performance Elements
Strategic Objectives Five-year Programmes/Projects 2009/10 Target
Provision of water
To ensure that all residents of NMB have access to water by 2008
Providing all households with water within a 200 m radius
100% of households to be provided with access to basic potable water supply 7900 new households provided with water connection by June 2010
Provision of bulk water services to support the Housing Programme
Provision of bulk water services in line with low-income housing delivery programme
Housing connections where contractors abandoned sites (Kuyga – 630 units and Kleinskool – 347 units)
Kuyga – project to be completed by June 2010 Kleinskool – project to be completed by June 2010
To implement a Water Demand Management Programme
Reduction in unaccounted for water to 15% by 2011 through the following projects in terms of the Water Demand Management Programme:
Unaccounted for water reduced by 5%, by June 2010
a) Replacement of old domestic meters 10 000 old domestic meters to be replaced as part of Water Demand Management Strategy
b) Development and implementation of water efficiency management educational programmes
Educational programmes to be developed and implemented (Target TBD) Water Demand Management: Strategy and Business Plan complete by September 2009 First contract to go to tender in December 2009
To provide infrastructure to meet developmental needs of Nelson Mandela Bay
Provision of infrastructure to meet growth and development needs of Nelson Mandela Bay
Infrastructure Investment Plan in place by December 2009 Finalisation of the Bulk Water Infrastructure Development Levy Policy by July 2009
To manage water infrastructure assets Infrastructure Asset Management Programme Complete maintenance backlog reports by December 2009 Asset Management Programme in place by June 2010
Provision of sanitation
To provide basic sanitation to all by 2010
Connection of households to sanitation services 7 900 new sanitation connections to be made Provision of bulk sanitation services to support the Housing Programme
Provision of bulk sanitation services in line with low-income housing delivery programme
Investigations into and implementation of alternative methods of sanitation
Investigations, report with recommendations and a policy into alternative method(s) of sanitation to be completed by September 2009 Tenders to be awarded by January 2010
To manage sanitation infrastructure assets Infrastructure Asset Management Programme Complete maintenance backlog reports by December 2009 Asset Management Programme in place by June 2010
Roads and Transportation
To improve public transport in Nelson Mandela Bay
Implementation of Integrated Public Transport System Phase 1 (installation of infrastructure) to be completed Update of five-year plan completed by June 2010
To ensure that all the road construction and maintenance needs of Nelson Mandela Bay are met
Implementation of the following road infrastructure development programmes: (a) Tarring 350 km of road
38 km of roads to be tarred by June 2010
50 culs-de-sac tarred by June 2010
(aa) Tarring of sidewalks 40 km of sidewalks to be tarred by June 2010 (b) Resurfacing 685 km of road 70 km of roads to be resurfaced by June 2010
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 72
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Five Year Performance Plan (IDP 2009). Key
Performance Elements
Strategic Objectives Five-year Programmes/Projects 2009/10 Target
(c) Rehabilitation/Reconstruction of 69 km of road 14 km of roads to be rehabilitated/ reconstructed by June 2010 (d) Gravelling 250 km of road 50 km of roads to be gravelled by June 2010 (e) Construction and maintenance of bridges Three bridge structures to be rehabilitated
To maintain road infrastructure and eliminate backlogs
Infrastructure Asset Management Programme Update Asset Register, properly valued in accordance with current accounting standards, by 30 June 2010 Update Asset Management Programme by June 2010
To improve road safety through the installation of traffic calming and control measures
Traffic Calming Measures Policy Traffic calming measures to be installed in 20 streets 10 sets of traffic lights to be installed
Stormwater To improve stormwater infrastructure and management across Nelson Mandela Bay
Installation of stormwater drainage to all new residential areas as well as existing residential areas without drainage
5 km of stormwater drainage to be installed
Development of a comprehensive stormwater management system
Asset Management Programme in place by June 2010
Electricity and energy
To provide electricity to all households by 2012
Connection of 15 170 erven by 2012/13 3 200 erven to be connected Connection of 2% erven on officially demarcated sites without electricity
98% of all households on officially surveyed sites provided with access to electricity by June 2010
To implement the EDIR Programme in line with the national timelines
Implementation of the EDIR Programme Section 78 process to be finalized by June 2010
To introduce alternative sources of energy
Implementation of the following renewable energy programmes: (a) Wind turbines
EIA in progress on three potential wind sites – obtain an ROD by June 2010
(b) Solar heating Roll out of solar water heating to: · 50 crèches by June 2010 · 1000 low cost housing units by June 2010
(c) Electricity generation from solid waste Financial close and tender for Phase One to be obtained
(d) Fishwater Flats methane generation Fishwater Flats methane generation, obtain ROD and begin site works by December 2009
(e) Landfill to gas Arlington and Koedoeskloof to start gas flaring by December 2009, and generation by 2010
To conserve energy through the implementation of energy efficient measures
Implementation of the following energy efficient programmes: (a) Introduction of energy efficient lighting in municipal buildings
All municipal buildings fitted with energy efficient lighting by March 2010
(b) Connection of 89 000 households with hot water load control
32 042 households to be connected with hot water load control by June 2010
(c) Replacement of existing streetlights with energy efficient lighting
Phase 1 by June 2010 ± 30 000 (125 MW)
(d) Replacement of traffic light heads with modern, low energy consumption heads or solar heads
100 intersections to be completed by June 2010
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 73
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Five Year Performance Plan (IDP 2009). Key
Performance Elements
Strategic Objectives Five-year Programmes/Projects 2009/10 Target
(e) Piloting the use of energy back-up on traffic lights under load shedding and power failure conditions
Pilot project to be implemented by November 2009
Development and implementation of electricity efficiency management educational programmes
Educational programmes developed and implemented (Target TBD)
To manage electricity infrastructure assets Infrastructure Asset Management Programme Complete Asset Register, properly valued in accordance with current accounting standards, by December 2009 Asset Management Programme in place by December 2009
Reduce the NMBMM carbon footprint Support the NMBMM Go Green Campaign by the addition of carbon reduction projects
2 new projects by June 2010
To ensure sustainable and effective reduction in electricity losses
Reduction in electricity losses through technical and theft to 6% by 2012/13
Electricity losses reduced to 7% by June 2010
To provide infrastructure to meet developmental needs of Nelson Mandela Bay
Provide infrastructure to meet growth and development needs of Nelson Mandela Bay
Infrastructure Investment Plan to be in place
Primary Health Care Services
To promote access to affordable primary health care services
Construction and upgrading of municipal health facilities
2 municipal primary health care facilities to be constructed (Zanemvula and Langa Kabah clinics) 5 municipal primary health care facilities to be upgraded (Booysens Park, Masakhane, New Brighton, Zwide and Kwazakhele clinics) Clinic computer connectivity to be provided at 100% of clinics
Implementation of a programme on youth-friendly health services
1 municipal primary health care facility (Masakhane) to focus on youth-friendly health services
Implementation of a programme for the provision of disability access infrastructure
100% of municipal primary health care facilities to be provided with disability access
To promote women and children’s health
Recruitment of qualified nursing and other health personnel
1:43 nurse-to-patient ratio
Provision of Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses (IMCI) and Antenatal Care (ANC)
100% of community health clinics to provide Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses (IMCI) 87% of community health clinics to provide Antenatal Care (ANC) services
Provision of the expanded programme on immunization (EPI) to achieve national coverage targets for children
90% coverage of the EPI in children targeted in Nelson Mandela Bay
Roll-out dual therapy to prevent mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT)
87% of designated primary health care facilities to provide Dual therapy to prevent mother to child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV
To increase access to antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Nelson Mandela Bay
Increasing the number of primary health care ART sites in Nelson Mandela Bay
3 additional accredited primary health care sites to provide ART services in Nelson Mandela Bay
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 74
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Five Year Performance Plan (IDP 2009). Key
Performance Elements
Strategic Objectives Five-year Programmes/Projects 2009/10 Target
To prioritize the treatment of TB and improve cure rates in Nelson Mandela Bay
Implementation of TB control programmes, which include the following: • Implementation of the TB Crisis Plan • Strengthening TB treatment programmes to
improve detection, reduce treatment interruptions and improve cure rates
75% New Smear Positive Cure Rate 5% reduction in New Smear Positive Defaulter rate 75% New Smear Positive TB Conversion Rate 99% of TB clients on directly observed therapy (DOTS)
Alignment and integration of activities of TB-supporting NGOs in Nelson Mandela Bay
Implementation Plan to align and integrate activities of TB supporting NGOs developed by September 2009
To implement a disease surveillance outbreak response plan
Implementation of the Disease Outbreak Response Plan
Monthly surveillance Report on all reported outbreaks of notifiable diseases to be compiled
Occupational Health, Safety and Wellness
To ensure the health, safety and wellness of all NMBMM employees
Implementation of Health and Safety Risk Management Programme
Health & safety risk assessment report in place by July 2009 Quarterly submission of reports and inventories of legal compliance by directorates
Implementation of Workplace HIV and AIDS Plan
Implementation of ARV treatment & support programme for employees by June 2010 Reviewal of staff policies and procedures to ensure nondiscrimination and de-stigmatisation by June 2010
Strengthening the Employee Assistance Programme within NMBMM
Investigate the need for psychosocial, relationship and addiction support to reach 50% target coverage by June 2010 Develop and implement Critical Incidence Stress Management Programme for high-risk directorates by June 2010
Implementation of a legally compliant occupational health monitoring and hygienic placement of employees
Quarterly submission of medical surveillance report
Quarterly submission of IOD statistical data
Construction and upgrading of Occupational Health and Wellness Centres
1 municipal occupational health and wellness centre constructed in Walmer by June 2010 1 municipal occupational health and wellness centre upgraded In Uitenhage by June 2010
Waste management
To provide quality sustainable waste management services to ensure a clean and healthy environment
Implementation of the NMBMM Waste Collection Strategy: a) Ensure provision of waste collection service to households in Nelson Mandela Bay
100% of households in formal urban and peri-urban areas to be provided with curbside waste collection services 95% of households in informal urban and peri-urban areas to be provided with basic level of service
b) Implementation of the Waste Management Replacement Policy for Containers
4000 wheelie bins in Uitenhage replaced by 30 June 2010
c) Roll out of Wheelie Bin Programme in terms of Housing Plan
5000 new households to be provided with a wheelie bin service in line with the NMBMM Housing Plan
Ensure implementation of the NMBMM Integrated Waste Management Plan projects: a) Development of Waste Disposal Facilities
2000 cubic metres of airspace to be developed by June 2010
2 transfer stations established by 30 June 2010
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 75
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Five Year Performance Plan (IDP 2009). Key
Performance Elements
Strategic Objectives Five-year Programmes/Projects 2009/10 Target
b) Introduction of Waste Minimisation Projects 1 Source separation Recycling Project to be successfully implemented by June 2010 Paper recycling introduced in 5 municipal buildings
c) Implementation of alternative service delivery mechanism
Sustaining of 9 Waste Management Cooperatives Sustaining Ward Based Cleaning Programme in 24 wards
d) Conducting of waste awareness 800 awareness events held annually
Eliminate illegal dumping in Nelson Mandela Bay Development of a strategy for the elimination of illegal dumping by September 2009
Parks
Parks is committed to create and maintain landscaped areas and cemeteries in a sustainable, aesthetic eco friendly safe environment to enhance the marketability of NMB & improve the quality of life for all
Development of Public Open Spaces 10 POS to be developed per annum in line with 5 year Greening Plan Planting of trees 2500 trees to be planted per annum
Maintenance and upgrading program 36 cemeteries to be maintained 2 cemeteries (Zwide and Kwanobuhle) to be upgraded
Maintenance programmes 150 POS, Parks and Street Islands to be maintained
Environmental management
To manage and protect the environment and natural assets of Nelson Mandela Bay
Develop environmental management strategies in order to: maintain naturally functioning eco-systems by ensuring sustainable use of natural resources
2 NMMOSS Projects to be implemented Formulation of the Environmental Management Framework by June 2010 Formulation of the Bioregional Plan by June 2010 3 Ecotourism projects within identified nature reserves with direct benefit to adjacent communities to be implemented Formulation of a plan to develop and implement a sustainable green procurement policy by June 2010
Promotion of environmental education and awareness through community based projects and programmes
15 000 people attending Environmental Awareness Programmes by June 2010
Environmental Health
To ensure a safe, healthy and secure environment
Air Pollution and Noise Control: • Pollution Prevention and Reduction Programme
Integrated Air Quality Management Plan to be completed Noise Control and Air Quality By-Law to be completed
Crime prevention To reduce crime and ensure a safe and secure environment
Implementation of Crime Prevention Strategy, which includes the following projects: (a) Promotion of community awareness and involvement
Functional Ward Safety structures established in each Ward by June 2010 8 safety and crime prevention programmes targeting the youth and others, to be implemented as part of social crime prevention plan
(b) Expansion of CCTV network at crime hotspots and other strategic areas (400 CCTV cameras installed including at municipal buildings and NMB Multi-purpose Stadium)
293 CCTV cameras to be installed and monitored
Disaster management
To proactively and effectively prevent, mitigate and respond to disasters
Facilitate the implementation of the Disaster Management Plan by all role-players
2 additional Disaster Management offices to be established A fully functional Disaster Management Advisory Forum (DMAF) in place by December 2009 100% compliance with Disaster Management Plan
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 76
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Five Year Performance Plan (IDP 2009). Key
Performance Elements
Strategic Objectives Five-year Programmes/Projects 2009/10 Target
Fully upgraded Disaster Management Centre, including a Joint Operations Centre, Operational offices and a GIS office by June 2010
Establishment of Local Disaster Management Committees and Disaster Management Teams in twelve satellite areas
Disaster Management Committees and Disaster Management Teams established in 8 satellite areas by June 2010
Implementation of an early warning system 4 disaster early warning systems Metro-wide by June 2010
Traffic safety To increase visible traffic policing in order to reduce accidents and fatalities on our roads
Traffic Safety Enforcement and Management Programme
20 initiatives to be introduced to reduce road fatalities 30 initiatives to be introduced to reduce public transport related accidents and lawlessness
Implementation of Traffic Fine Collection Programme 60% collection rate to be achieved
Emergency response
To ensure an efficient and effective response to emergencies regarding fire, traffic, security and disasters
Emergency Response Time:
(a) Fire: 10 minutes (b) Disaster: 30 minutes (c) Traffic: 10 minutes (d) Security: 15 minutes
Community education
To promote community safety awareness Development and implementation of an educational programme on fire safety, traffic safety, crime prevention and disaster management
48 programmes on fire safety, traffic safety, crime prevention and disaster management to be held
By-law enforcement
To ensure compliance with municipal by-laws By-law enforcement programmes for fire safety, traffic safety, crime prevention and disaster management
80 inspections to be undertaken to ensure that buildings comply with municipal by-laws 32 inspections to be undertaken of all hospitality institutions to ensure compliance 100 other inspections to be undertaken to enforce by-laws
Protection of Municipal staff and assets
The provision of a system whereby the needs for protection and safekeeping of Municipal employees and assets are met, in order to ensure secure working conditions and reduce unnecessary costs due to loss through negligence or otherwise
Implementation of the Security Master Plan, which includes the following: Risk analysis of identified localities.
16 risk analysis surveys to be completed
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 77
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
7 Hazard Profile This section provides a description of the hazards assessed during the risk assessment, as well as a
description of the characteristics of the NMBM in relation to each of the hazards.
7.1 Transport Hazards
Transportation hazard events, such as motor vehicle accidents, are considered a daily event in the
majority of urban areas in South Africa. This is due to the tendency for these events to be high
frequency, low severity events. However, low frequency, high severity events do occur, and these
are the events that are in the ambit of disaster management. For the purpose of this assessment,
transport disaster was divided into the following four categories:
• Air Transportation;
• Rail Transportation;
• Road Transportation; and
• Water Transportation.
One should be mindful of the fact that transportation ‘emergencies’ can have a disruptive impact on
the NMBM. This is not only the case for the normal day-to-day functioning of the municipality, but
transportation ‘emergencies’ can also have an impact on medical and health operations in the
NMBM. According to the NMBM (s.a.) a transport emergency has the following characteristics and
can have the following impact on medical and health operations in the NMBM:
• The scene may extend for kilometers, and can cause limited access onto highways;
• Access by emergency responders may be limited or delayed in the core of a large event;
• This type of emergency might be responder intensive;
• Hazardous materials and conditions may be involved in these events;
• The events might result in high numbers of high acuity trauma patients;
• Weather conditions may contribute to the emergency, by grounding air transportation and
making ground transportation hazardous; and
• This event may require carrying patients over significant distances to reach transport
vehicles.
7.1.1 Air Transportation
Even though major casualty incidents related to air transportation hazards are rare, the potential risk
presented by air transportation remains present. This is especially the case for a high density urban
environment such as the NMBM. This risk can also increase with an increase in air traffic due to
economic and urban developments or special events leading to an increase in air travelling to and
from the city.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 78
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
During the stakeholder consultation and community participation process conducted during the
assessment, the following information with regard to air transportation hazards was provided by
stakeholders:
• Air Transportation was generally identified as a Class 2 hazard (Rare Events, out of ordinary,
but still manageable).
• Stakeholders indicated that air transport hazard events are not increasing;
• It was indicated that air transportation hazards are not specifically identified as a focus area in
the IDP.
• The priority to further reduce or manage risks related to this hazard was rated as 5 (not
urgent).
• Representatives also identified that the dump site next to the Port Elizabeth airport as a
concern. This is due to the waste site attracting birds to the area which can increase the risk
of aircraft crashes. It was indicated that the dump site does not have specific plans to manage
this problem, but that the airport has emergency plans for this event. The priority to reduce
or manage the risk associated with the waste site and birds were identified as 1 (Very urgent).
Statistics from the Fire Services (NMBM 2010) provided some information with regards to previous
air transportation hazard events in the NMBM. Analysis of the statistics indicated the following:
Table 7-1: Air Transportation Hazard Statistics
Event Description Probability
(Over a 1 Year Period)
Frequency of Events
(Rounded) Comments
Aircraft Accident (Light Aircraft) 39% 1 Event per 930 days -
Aircraft Fires /
Crash
Phase 1 100% 1 Event per 217 days Base data
classified as
Aircraft
Fires
Phase 2 100% 1 Event per 261 days
Phase 3 56% 1 Event per 651 days
Total 100% 1 Event per 100 days
In order to represent the hazard spatially, information with regard to the location of airfields/airports
in the NMBM as well as flight paths were used. This flight path as well as buffer areas around the
airport and local airfields are deemed to be high hazard areas for potential aircraft accidents. The
result of the hazard mapping is shown below:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 79
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Figure 7-1: Air Transport Hazard in the NMBM
7.1.2 Rail Transportation
Rail transportation hazards can represent a disaster risk especially if a large number of passengers or
hazardous material is involved. Incidents involving trains and road vehicles, or hazard events such
as structural failure can also lead to mass casualty of high fatality events. No specific information
related to rail transportation hazards were received from stakeholders during the stakeholder
consultation and community participation process. However, information with regard to rail
transportation events was collected from the Fire Services (NMBM 2010) incident records. Analysis
of these statistics indicated the following:
Table 7-2: Rail Transportation Hazard Statistics
Event Description Probability
(Over a 1 Year Period)
Frequency of Events
(Rounded) Comments
Train Accident 100% 1 Event per 310 days -
Train Fires 73% 1 Event per 501 days -
The hazard associated with Rail transportation was mapped together with Road transportation
hazards.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 80
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
7.1.3 Road Transportation
According to the WHO (2009) “over 90% of the world’s fatalities on the roads occur in low-income
and middle-income countries, which have only 48% of the world’s registered vehicles. Road traffic
fatality rates in low-income and middle-income countries (21.5 and 19.5 per 100 000 population,
respectively) are double the rates in high-income countries (10.3 per 100 000). Pedestrians,
cyclists, and riders of motorized two-wheeler and their passengers are considered "vulnerable road
users", and account for around 46% of global road traffic deaths. Globally, road traffic crashes
cause over 1.27 million deaths a year. Road traffic fatalities are predicted to rise to the fifth leading
cause of death by 2030, resulting in an estimated 2.4 million fatalities per year. This projected
increase in ranking would be due to a combination of an increase in road traffic deaths and
reductions in deaths due to some other health conditions”.
In the Eastern Cape, road transport hazard events were responsible for an average of 1,311 fatalities
per year over the period of 2001 – 2008. This is nearly 10% of the average total road accident
fatalities in South Africa (13, 382) for the same period. Over this period, an average of 1,392
vehicles was involved in fatal crashes annually. Figure 7-2 and Figure 7-3 provides information
with regards to accidents recorded in the Eastern Cape over the 2001 – 2008 period.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
EC 764 898 1,080 1,152 1,152 1,367 1,772 1,629 1,329
RSA 11,514 12,725 12,919 13,470 13,470 14,908 16,474 15,612 14,463
500
2,500
4,500
6,500
8,500
10,500
12,500
14,500
16,500
18,500
Ve
hic
les
Number of Vehicles Involved in Fatal Crashes
Figure 7-2: Number of Vehicle involved in Fatal Cra shes in the Eastern Cape
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 81
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Other & Unkwn 54 99 104 92 144 182 226 214
Trucks 63 68 76 115 79 59 20 4
LDV's - Bakkies 176 253 326 332 325 376 416 391
Buses 3 65 41 34 60 112 35 71
Minibus Taxis 68 116 140 94 60 51 11 7
Minibuses 55 49 64 110 119 164 202 279
Motorcars 378 365 377 461 561 801 704 535
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Fa
tali
tie
s
Number of Fatalities per Type of Vehicle(Eastern Cape)
Figure 7-3: Number of Fatalities per Type of Vehicl e in the Eastern Cape
During the stakeholder consultation and community participation process conducted for the
assessment, the following information with regards to road transportation hazards was provided by
stakeholders:
• Road Transportation was generally identified as a Class 1 hazard (regular events, ordinary,
day-to-day activities/incidents).
• Stakeholders indicated that road transport hazard events are increasing, and that the main
causes of these events includes reckless driving, inadequate traffic signs, and people talking
on cell phones while driving.
• Specific problem areas identified during consultations were Cape Road, Stafford Road,
Mission Road and Ward 54.
• The main challenges associated with reducing the risk posed by transportation hazards were
identified as the lack of finances. It was, however, indicated that road transportation hazards
are addressed in the IDP in the form of road upgrading projects.
• The priority to further reduce or manage risks related to road transportation hazard was rated
as 1.75, which represents a priority of very to medium urgent.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 82
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Information on road transportation hazard events was collected from the Fire Services (NMBM
2010) incident records. Analysis of these statistics indicated the following:
Table 7-3: Road Transportation Hazard Statistics
Event Description Probability
(Over a 1 Year Period)
Frequency of Events
(Rounded) Comments
Accident Double Light
Vehicle 100% 1 Event per 1 days -
Accident Light Combination 100% 1 Event per 16 days -
Accident Minibus / Light
Combination 100% 1 Event per 50 days -
Accident Multi Light Vehicle 100% 1 Event per 17 days -
Accident Multi Truck 100% 1 Event per 225 days -
Accident Passenger Bus
Heavy 100% 1 Event per 109 days -
Accident Passenger Light
Mini Bus 100% 1 Event per 19 days -
Accident Pedestrian 100% 1 Event per 50 days -
Accident Single Light Vehicle 100% 1 Event per 2 days -
Accident Single Truck 100% 1 Event per 27 days -
Accident Tanker 34% 1 Event per 1086 days -
Transport
Fires Multi Heavy
Vehicles 28% 1 Event per 1303 days
Transport
Fires Multi Light
Vehicles 95% 1 Event per 383 days
Transport
Fires Single Heavy
Vehicle 100% 1 Event per 24 days
Transport
Fires Single Light Vehicle 100% 1 Event per 3 days
The GIS mapping of road and rail transportation hazards is shown below:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 83
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Figure 7-4: Road and Rail Transport Hazard
7.1.4 Water Transportation
Due to the location of the NMBM at the coast, and the importance of water transportation both in
terms of the economy and recreational activities, water transportation related hazards can pose a risk
to the NMBM.
The risk associated with water transportation hazards in the NMBM not only include the risk to
human health or safety, but also includes a risk the environment. This is due to the activities
associated with the ports in the NMBM, and the type of material, including hazardous material,
being transported. Figure 7-5 illustrates the Vessels Transfer Zones at one of the ports in the
NMBM. Information related to shipping lanes and other routes were not available during this
assessment.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 84
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Figure 7-5: Vessels Transfer Zones in the NMBM
Specific information related to water transportation hazards were received from stakeholders during
the stakeholder consultation and community participation process. The information received
indicated that:
• The water transportation hazard event was identified as a Class 2 hazard (Rare Events, out of
ordinary, but still manageable).
• The identified hazard related to casualties on the ships, and not specifically to accidents or
incidents involving ships.
• It was further indicated that, even though the IDP does not include a specific focus on this
event, plans does exist to manage these events.
• The priority to reduce or manage the risk related to this hazard was rated as 1, which
represents a priority of very urgent.
Information with regard to water transportation and related events was also collected from the Fire
Services (NMBM 2010) incident records as well as the NSRI. Analysis of these statistics indicated
the following:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 85
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Table 7-4: Water Transportation Hazard Statistics
Event Description Probability
(Over a 1 Year Period)
Frequency of Events
(Rounded) Comments
Rescue Water Base 100% 1 Event per 28 days Fire Services
Data Fires Ship Fires 100% 1 Event in 343 days
NSRI
Operations
Commercial Fishing
Boats 100% 1 Event in 46 days
Based on NSRI
Operations:
1 Oct 2007 to
30 Sept 2008
Ski-Boats 100% 1 Event in 91 days
Sailing Craft 100% 1 Event in 52 days
Medical Assistance
(Sea Borne) 100% 1 Event in 41 days
Swimmers 100% 1 Event in 17 days
Paddle Ski’s 100% 1 Event in 73 days
Other 100% 1 Event in 91 days
Total 100% 1 Event in 6 days
Due to a lack of spatially represented information, no specific GIS based hazard mapping was
conducted for water transportation hazards.
7.2 Civil Unrest
Civil unrest and mass disturbances can occur at anytime, and normally lead to destruction of
property and concerns about public safety and security. For the purpose of this assessment civil
unrest hazards were divided into six categories, namely
� Demonstrations and riots;
� Refugees and Internally displaced persons;
� Xenophobic violence;
� Terrorism;
� Armed Conflict; and
� Crime.
According to the NMBM (s.a.) civil unrest, also called civil disorder, can impact on medical and
health operations in the NMBM by restricting the movement of traffic and impairing access and
function of public facilities.
7.2.1 Demonstrations / Riots
Demonstrations and riots are a common occurrence in South Africa although incidents where these
events escalate to physical violence, injuries and damage to property are less frequent. Areas that
are considered likely to be affected by demonstrations and rioting are public buildings, the CBD,
industrial areas, specific informal and informal settlements and main transport routes.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 86
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Specific information related to demonstrations and riots was received from stakeholders during
stakeholder consultations. The information indicated that:
• Stakeholders indicated that demonstrations due to a lack of service delivery are a concern in
specific wards in the NMBM. These wards included Ward 2, 3, 4, 21, 30, 34, 36, 38, 41 and
60.
• Stakeholders considered this type of demonstrations and riots as a Class 1 hazard (regular
events, ordinary, day-to-day activities/incidents), and indicated that these events are on the
increase.
• Stakeholders indicated that the main cause of these demonstrations and riots are related to
corruption, and that the problem of demonstrations and riots is not addresses in the IDP.
• The priority to reduce or manage the risk related to demonstrations and riots was rated as 1,
which represents a priority of very urgent.
Hazards related to demonstrations and riots were mapped in combination with other hazards under
the civil unrest category.
7.2.2 Refugees, Displaced People and Illegal Immigr ation
The 1951 Refugee Convention defines a refugee as someone who “owing to a well-founded fear of
being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group
or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality, and is unable to, or owing to such fear,
is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country.”
The UNHCR (2009) suggests that South Africa hosts approximately 40,000 refugees and over
100,000 asylum-seekers. According to the UNHCR these individuals come from approximately 52
countries, but most are from Angola, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC),
Rwanda, Somalia and Zimbabwe. The majority of refugees and asylum-seekers live in the main
urban centres, such as Cape Town, Durban, Johannesburg, Port Elizabeth and Pretoria.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 87
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Source: UNHCR 2009
Figure 7-6: UNHCR Country Operations Profile – Sout h Africa
According to a report of MSF (2007) South Africa has become the leading destination in the region
for migrants fleeing economic and political chaos in neighboring countries. The main reason for
these individuals to come to South Africa is in search of jobs and safety. MSF estimates that
between 2,000 and 6,000 people cross the border into South Africa every day. The impact of these
people on South Africa is quite substantial.
The DEAT (2006) estimates that, immigration from Africa, is to some extent, counterbalancing the
downward trends in natural population growth. According to the DEAT (2006) the number of those
entering from outside the country is difficult to measure, because of illegal immigration into South
Africa and because of insufficiently understood circulatory migration patterns of people moving
between rural and urban areas. As an indicator, between the 1996 and 2001 censuses, the number of
persons who indicated that they were born in Southern African Development Community (SADC)
countries increased by 158 000, while the number living in South Africa but born in other African
countries increased by 21 800. Recent reports on asylum seekers show a similar upward trend. In
2004, 104 000 applications for asylum were received by authorities, more than double the figure for
2000 (DEAT, 2006).
Displaced people can include refugees or asylum seekers, but can also consist of local residents
displaced by the effects of a disaster event. This is often the case with fire or flooding disasters in
informal settlements. Housing or relocation of displaced persons should be carefully managed in
order to ensure that risks related to secondary hazards, such as disease or environmental degradation,
is reduced and managed appropriately.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 88
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Representatives consulted during this disaster risk assessment identified concerns related to refugees
(and possible illegal immigrants) and displaced persons in the NMBM. The information received
from community representatives indicated that:
• Stakeholders considered hazards associated with refugees and displaced people as a Class 1 hazard (regular events, ordinary, day-to-day activities/incidents).
• Refugees and displaced persons seem to be a concern in all the wards, but especially in the Motherwell area.
• The main challenge in dealing with refugees, displaced people and illegal immigration was perceived corruption in the Department of Home Affairs. A lack of government refugee policy for South Africa was also indicated as a challenge.
• Interesting enough, the priority to reduce or manage the risk related to refugees, displaced people and illegal immigration was classified by the representatives as 5 (Not an urgent priority).
Hazard mapping for refugees, displaced individuals and illegal immigration was combined with
other hazards under the civil unrest category and is presented at the end of this section on civil unrest
hazards.
7.2.3 Xenophobic Violence
As discussed in the previous section, South African has experienced an influx of immigrants from
neighbouring countries. This has increased the potential risk of xenophobic violence. According to
the UNHCR (2009) refugees, immigrants and asylum-seekers generally tend to settle in the main
urban centres, such as Port Elizabeth. However, unemployment in such centres is often already a
concern for local residents, an influx of immigrants might aggravate the situation. In many areas of
South Africa the competition for employment and resources has led to frustration and boiled over
into violence affecting many communities.
The exact number of foreign nationals currently residing in South Africa is unknown. According to
the UNHCR (2009) Zimbabweans have sought asylum in South Africa in growing numbers since the
disputed March 2008 elections in their country. They join the very large community of
Zimbabweans already living in South Africa, many of whom have no legal status and suffer great
hardship. Even though refugees and asylum-seekers in South Africa enjoy freedom of movement,
the challenges they face when trying to integrate into local communities were highlighted by the
xenophobic attacks on foreigners in May 2008. These resulted in the deaths of more than 60 people
and the displacement of some 46,000 others in Cape Town, Durban, Johannesburg and Pretoria.
According to Misago (2009), violence against foreign nationals and other ‘outsiders’ has been a
long-standing feature of post-Apartheid South Africa. However, the intensity and scale of the May
2008 attacks was extraordinary. What started off as an isolated incidence of anti-foreigner violence
in Alexandra on 11 May, quickly spread to other townships and informal settlements across the
country. After two weeks and the deployment of the Army, the violence subsided. In its wake, 62
people, including 21 South Africans, were dead; at least 670 wounded; dozens of women raped; and
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 89
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
at least 100 000 persons displaced and property worth millions of Rand looted, destroyed or seized
by local residents and leaders.
A study by the International Organization for Migration (Misago 2009) reports as follows:
“There are broad structural and historical factors that led to the May 2008 violence including the
legacy of institutional discrimination and generalised mistrust among citizens, police, and the
elected leaders. But these cannot explain the location and timing of the attacks. Similarly, this
study finds little evidence to support early accounts blaming the eruption of the violence on a ‘third
force’, poor border control, changes in national political leadership, or rising food and commodity
prices. These factors may have contributed to generalised tensions, but they cannot explain why
violence occurred in some places and not others.
In explaining the timing and location of violence, this study’s findings are that in almost all cases
where violence occurred, it was organised and led by local groups and individuals in an effort to
claim or consolidate the authority and power needed to further their political and economic
interests. It therefore finds that most violence against non-nationals and other ‘outsiders’ which
occurred in May 2008 is rooted in the micro-politics of the country’s townships and informal
settlements. By comparing affected and non-affected areas, this report shows that only a trusted,
competent and committed leadership (from grassroots to high-level officialdom) can make a
significant difference in terms of preventing social tensions from turning into xenophobic violence.
In responding to the threats and outbreaks of violence, the study finds that local leaders and police
were typically reluctant to intervene on behalf of victims. In some cases, this was because they
supported the community’s hostile attitudes towards foreign nationals. In others, they feared losing
legitimacy and political positions if they were seen as defending unpopular groups. In almost all
instances, local leaders and police spoke of their incapacity to counter violence and violent
tendencies within their communities.”
The study further summarizes incidents and reactions related to xenophobic violence in South
Africa. The following abstracts relate to the timeline of some of the incidents within the Eastern
Cape Province:
Feb 2007 Motherwell (Eastern Cape): Violence triggered by the accidental shooting of a
young South African man (by a Somali shop owner) results in the looting of over
one-hundred Somali-owned shops in a 24 hour period.
Jan 2008 Duncan Village (Eastern Cape): Two Somalis are found burned to death in their
shop. Police later arrest seven people in connection with the incident after finding
them in possession of property belonging to the deceased.
Jan 2008 Jeffrey’s Bay (Eastern Cape): After a Somali shop owner allegedly shoots dead a
suspected thief, a crowd of residents attack Somali-owned shops, and many Somali
nationals seek shelter at the police station.
24 May 2008 George (Eastern Cape) Attacks said to have broken out (during the spate of May
2008 attacks).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 90
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
It is important to consider the possible causes of the xenophobic violence in order to reduce the risk
of future attacks. Misago (2009) identified the following aspects as contributing but insufficient
conditions for the development of the outbreaks:
• High unemployment rates;
• Poor service delivery;
• Impunity;
• Limited knowledge of country’s immigration laws and policies; and
• Local authorities’ support and enforcement of illegal practices.
The following features (“triggers”) were shared by the sites affected during the May 2008 violence
(Misago 2009):
• Elevated crime levels (real or perceived);
• Ethnic divides and tensions;
• History of organised violence;
• Absence of institutionalised leadership;
• The emergence of informal leadership groups;
• Forced removals as tool for consolidating power;
• Instigators of the attacks;
• Lack of conflict resolution mechanisms; and
• Inability of local government to exercise authority in multi-party constituencies.
Based on these and other factors, it is important to consider suitable risk reduction activities in order
to prevent the occurrence of xenophobic violence in the NMBM.
7.2.4 Terrorism
In general terms, terrorism has not been perceived as a high probability risk in South Africa for the
last decade or more. This might be due to the seeming stable political environment, as well as a lack
of actual or perceived terrorism threats in South Africa over the last few years. According to a
report in 2009 (AON, 2009) the terrorism threat conditions in South Africa was estimated on the
level of a “Guarded threat”, which is the second lowest classification, regarded as a general risk
with no credible threats to specific targets. However, attacks on a soccer team in Angola, and the
upcoming FIFA 2010 World Cup to be hosted in South Africa, has raised a number of questions
with regard to the threat of terrorism during the event.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 91
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Source: AON Group, 2009
Figure 7-7: Terrorism Threat Conditions
Even though terrorism is, generally speaking, not considered as a severe threat in South Africa,
applicable indicators should be monitored to anticipate and manage possible future risks. With the
planning associated with the FIFA 2010 Soccer World Cup, especially related to safety and security
surrounding the event, it is strongly recommended that coordination and cooperation between all the
relevant role-players should be encouraged in order to assess, mitigate, prepare for and ensure an
effective response to any eventuality, including terrorism. These actions should, however, not stop
after the FIFA event, but should become standard practise following the event.
The only information captured from the Fire Services (NMBM 2010) incident records that can be
classified as being related to terrorism, is related to the history of bomb threats in the NMBM.
Keeping the limitations in mind, it should be mentioned that the history of a set of events, especially
man-made events, cannot primarily be used as an estimation of future events. This is also the case
for terrorism hazards. The statistics below are, however, provided as guidelines, but it is important
to consider contributing factors that can substantially change the risk profile of the NMBM in the
near future, and thereby increase the risks associated with civil unrest hazards, such as terrorism.
Analysis of the statistics received from the Fire Services indicated the following:
Table 7-5: Terrorism Hazard Statistics
Event Description Probability
(Over a 1 Year Period)
Frequency of Events
(Rounded) Comments
Bomb Threat Only 78% 1 Event in 15 months -
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 92
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
In preparation of possible terrorist events, it is important to consider the potential impact of an act of
terror in medical / health operations in the NMBM. This can include:
• Acts of terror may not be identified as a terrorist act early in the response;
• These situations may require a highly complex response, involving many agencies and
disciplines;
• The event may take many forms, including explosion, chemical, radiological, biological or
other attack;
• A need for evidence preservation may complicate the response; and
• A risk of a secondary event targeting responders may be present.
7.2.5 Armed Conflict (Civil/Political War)
According to the ICSU (2007), ongoing conflicts in Africa often exacerbate other hazards. Fragile
and degraded environments can fuel conflict and war, and vice versa. Conflicts aggravate the effects
of natural hazards, such as famine and epidemics, by increasing the vulnerability of societies and
ecosystems already under stress. In turn, the type, onset, and intensity of conflicts are also
influenced by natural environmental hazards. Both are linked, but the relationship is complex.
In 1985, almost all drought-affected African countries (such as Ethiopia, Sudan, Chad, and
Mozambique) were also wracked by civil wars (Timberlake, 1994 in ICSU, 2007). In such times,
governments often allocate resources to war and give low priority to long-term environmental
concerns. The effects of conflicts often remain a problem long after the conflict is over. Today,
landmines and unexploded ordinance affect 30 of Africa’s 54 countries (Human Rights Watch, 1993
& 1994 in ICSU, 2007).
Conflict, and associated land degradation can also give rise to secondary hazards, including the
movement of large numbers of people within the borders of a country or across international borders
(ICSU, 2007).
Although the probability for major armed conflict in South Africa is currently considered low, the
extreme severity of armed conflict does mean that any incident will have serious implications for the
affected community. It is therefore important to carefully monitor indicators related to conflict, and
civil unrest, in order to reduce the risk of wide spread civil conflict in future.
7.2.6 Crime
Crime is not generally included as one of the hazards considered during a disaster risk assessment,
and one might ask why crime is even mentioned in a disaster risk assessment. The reason for this
will be discussed later in this section. It is however necessary to consider the impact of crime in
South Africa, before discussions with regard to crime as a contributor to disaster risk can be
discussed.
According to Du Plessis et al (2005) an accurate analysis of crime in South Africa since the advent
of democracy should begin with a review of the trends before and after 1994. Figures for the pre-
1994 period show that crime rates for most of the country have been increasing since the mid-1980s
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 93
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
(Schönteich and Louw 2001 in Du Plessis et al, 2005). However, because these statistics excluded
crime incidents in the apartheid-era “bantustans,” they are widely regarded as inaccurate. The
figures recorded by the police after 1994 indicate that recorded crime in South Africa has increased
by 30% over the past decade (SAPS 2003 in Du Plessis et al, 2005). Recorded violent crime has
increased more than any other crime type (by 41% compared to 28% for property crime) (Du Plessis
et al, 2005). The official police statistics paint a gloomy picture. But several considerations must be
taken into account when analysing crime in South Africa:
• The reporting phenomenon. A recent national victim survey suggests that less than half of
all crime is reported to the police (Burton, du Plessis, Leggett, Louw, Mistry, and van
Vuuren 2004 in Du Plessis et al, 2005). Moreover, reporting rates were the lowest for those
crime types that, according to the police data, showed the greatest increases (such as robbery
and assault). In addition, according to official statistics, offences that are traditionally well
reported, such as murder and vehicle theft, had decreased since 1994. To some degree,
then, the increase in recorded crime is likely to be a result of increased reporting to the
police. With the greater legitimacy of the justice system in general and an emphasis on
community policing and service delivery, an increase in reporting since 1994 was to be
expected.
• Alternative sources on crime trends. National victim survey findings show that, contrary to
police data, crime rates have not increased over the past five years. Surveys indicate a 2%
drop in overall crime rates between 1998 and 2003.
• There is good news. Murder statistics are widely regarded as most reliable, and the official
data show a consistent decrease in the murder rate since 1994.
• Substantial regional variation. Crime rates and crime trends over time differ substantially
between provinces and cities. For example, the murder rate in the Western Cape in 2002–
2003 was seven times that of Limpopo, the province with the lowest murder rate.
• Violence is the key challenge. It is of concern that over one third of all officially recorded
crime is violent. The categories that present the greatest challenge are murder, armed
robbery, rape, and child rape and abuse.
• The public feel increasingly unsafe. Despite what the statistics say and the substantial efforts
of government and civil society, members of the public feel much less safe now than they
did five years ago (Burton et al. 2004 in Du Plessis et al. 2005).
• Similar factors drive crime in South Africa as elsewhere. The factors that have been
associated with crime in South Africa are similar to those described internationally (Du
Plessis et al, 2005).
Keeping these aspects in mind, one needs to consider the impact of crime on the NMBM, and if
crime does qualify to be considered in a disaster risk assessment. For this assessment, crime is
considered as a sub-hazard under the civil unrest hazard category. However, crime should not only
be considered in the context of a hazard, but also as a contributory factor to vulnerability (See
Section 8). For the purpose of this discussion, crime will be considered as a sub-hazard under Civil
Unrest hazard.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 94
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
During consultations with representatives of the NMBM, crime was identified as a concern. The
information collected from the representatives indicated that:
• Crime in the NMBM is considered a Class 1 hazard (Regular Events, Ordinary, day-
to-day activities / incidents);
• Ward 10, 11, 31 and 32 were identified as having specific problems associated with
rape, gangsterism, robbery and housebreaking, while Ward 21 and 22 were
identified as areas where tourists are being robbed.
• The main cause of crime was perceived as being related to unemployment levels in
the NMBM; and
• Representatives identified the priority to reduce or manage the risk related to crime
as priority 1 (Very urgent).
• Even though the IDP of the NMBM (IDP 2009) identifies Crime prevention as one
of its key priorities, some representatives indicated that the NMBM IDP does not
address the hazard of crime (especially related to crime against tourists).
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Apr 03 -
Mar 04
Apr 04 -
Mar 05
Apr 05 -
Mar 06
Apr 06 -
Mar 07
Apr 07 -
Mar 08
Apr 08 -
Mar 09
Selected Crime Levels in the NMBM
Murder
Total sexual crimes
Attempted Murder
Assault with the intent to inflict
grievous bodily harm
Driving under the influence of
alcohol or drugs
Public Violence
Figure 7-8: Selected Crime Levels in the NMBM
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 95
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Figure 7-9: Total murder and population levels for selected areas in the NMBM
Figure 7-10 represents the results of the Civil Unrest hazard mapping for the NMBM. Areas
identified as high civil unrest hazard areas include industrial areas, government buildings and major
transport routes, as well as areas identified by representatives from the NMBM during stakeholder
consultations.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 96
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Figure 7-10: Civil unrest hazard
7.3 Environmental Degradation
For the purpose of this assessment, environmental degradation was divided into four sub-categories.
They included:
• Deforestation;
• Erosion;
• Land Degradation; and
• Loss of Biodiversity.
Environmental degradation may result from a variety of factors, including overpopulation and the
resulting overuse of land and other resources. Intensive farming, for instance, depletes soil fertility,
thus decreasing crop yields. Pollution is also a well known cause of environmental degradation.
Sources of pollution include mines, power generating facilities (especially those burning fossil
fuels), industry and agriculture (Miller, 1999).
In many parts of the world, environmental degradation is an important cause of poverty.
Environmental problems have led to shortages of food, clean water, materials for shelter, and other
essential resources. As natural resources are degraded, people who live directly off the environment
suffer most from the effects.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 97
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Even though, the majority of the inhabitants in the NMBM do not live directly off the environment,
Environmental degradation is a key hazard to be considered in the context of the NMBM area.
Environmental degradation is often not considered a disaster risk, due to the fact that the
environmental degradation hazards often leads to slow-onset disasters, with less dramatic results
than other rapid-onset disaster such as fires or floods. However, the characteristic of the NMBM,
especially in terms of biodiversity and ecological characteristics highlight the need to include
environmental degradation in an assessment of this sort. A brief overview of the NMBM in the
context of environmental degradation is provided below:
According to SRK (2009), “the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality is situated in the southern-eastern
most corner of the Cape Floristic Region (CFR), South Africa. The CFR is an area of exceptional
floristic diversity and endemism. A conservation priority within the CFR is the lowlands of the
Nelson Mandela Metropole. Nelson Mandela Bay is an area of convergence of five of South Africa's
seven biomes; namely the Fynbos, Subtropical Thicket, Forest, Nama Karoo, and Grassland biomes
(Low & Rebelo, 1998). Such a concentration of biomes, particularly within a city, is unparalleled in
the world. The remaining natural habitats of the area are currently being severely fragmented by
urban development, industry, cultivation, grazing, mining and alien plant infestation.”
Other aspects indentified in the IDP (2009) highlight the importance of the NMBM’s natural
environment, especially for the tourism industry:
• Due to the geographical location of the NMBM, tourism development is a major catalyst for
economic growth and a local strength.
• Tourism can play an important role in the NMBM in terms of job creation. Bed-nights spent
in Nelson Mandela Bay have been consistently increasing with a 10% annual increase in the
occupancy rate. The quality of the local beaches is confirmed by the fact that no less than
four beaches have Blue Flag status.
• Nelson Mandela Bay is an excellent point from which to explore African big game and
wildlife. The City is situated within half an hour’s drive of world acclaimed game reserves
with the Big Five and which include the famous Addo National Elephant Park and
Shamwari Game Reserve.
• Known for its great biodiversity, the area has no less than five of the six land biomes in
South Africa. The region also contains three of the 21 internationally recognised biodiversity
hotspots.
• Totaling approximately 100km of beach and coastline, its beachfront is the city’s greatest
natural asset. This largely underdeveloped and unexploited area has the potential of forming
the foundation of a thriving tourism, recreation and holiday industry.
Environmental degradation hazards are discussed in more detail below:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 98
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
7.3.1 Deforestation
No specific information with regard to deforestation in the NMBM was received. However, aspects
related to deforestation are covered under the general environmental degradation hazard description
and mapping.
7.3.2 Erosion
Erosion, including soil, wind and water erosion, is often not considered as a major disaster hazard,
but, as is the case with a number of environmental degradation hazards, uncontrolled erosion can
cause severe damage to the environment, and lead to a general reduction in environmental quality.
Erosion in the vicinity of infrastructure, such as roads, pipelines and electricity infrastructure, can
lead to the eventual destruction of the infrastructure.
Soil erosion can result from a number of causes, including overstocking and overgrazing as well as
inappropriate farming techniques. The effect of erosion can include an on-site loss of agricultural
potential and localized environmental damage. Water erosion, on the other hand, can cause
problems in watercourses. This is due to the downstream movement of sediment, causing the silting
up of reservoirs and flooding (DoA, 2006). The sandy nature of the coastal areas is also at risk of
erosion especially if the natural plant cover is stripped (SEA Report, 2000).
According to the DoA (2006), the following types of erosion can be identified:
• Sheet Erosion: Soil erosion is characterised by the down slope removal of soil particles within a thin sheet of water. Sheet erosion occurs when the entire surface of a field is gradually eroded in more or less uniform way. It is a gradual process and it is not immediately obvious that soil is being lost.
• Gully erosion (dongas): Dongas usually occur near the bottom of slopes and are caused by the removal of soil and soft rock as a result of concentrated runoff that forms a deep channel or gully. On steep land, there is often the danger of gullies forming. Water running downhill cuts a channel deep into the soil and where there is a sudden fall, a gully head forms at the lower end of the channel and gradually works its way back uphill. As it does so, it deepens and widens the scar that the gully makes in the hillside. Gully erosion is related to stream bank erosion, in which fast-flowing rivers and streams increasingly cut down their own banks.
• Rill erosion (channel erosion): Channel erosion can occur on steep land or on land that slopes more gently. Because there are always irregularities in a field, water finds hollows in which to settle and low-lying channels through which to run. As the soil from these channels is washed away, channels or miniature dongas are formed in the field.
• Wind erosion: Wind erosion occurs when the land surface is left bare in regions that are arid enough, as a result of low rainfall, to allow the soil to dry out, and flat enough to allow the wind to carry the soil away over several consecutive days. Land may become susceptible to wind erosion through grazing animals, which remove the protective plant cover, and whose hooves break up the soil, especially round watering points. Arable land that has been left bare is also a major problem (DoA, 2006).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 99
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
According to the DoA (2006) a number of factors can cause or exacerbate soil erosion. These
factors include:
• Slope: The steeper the slope, the greater the erosion, as a result of the increased velocity of
water-flow. The length of the slope is very important, because the greater the size of the
sloping area, the greater the concentration of the flooding water.
• Soil texture: Soil texture is the size distribution of soil particles. The size of particles never
changes. A sandy soil, therefore, remains sandy and a clayey soil remains clayey. The three
main particles are sand, silt and clay. The more sandy a soil the easier it will erode.
• Soil structure: The term soil structure means the grouping or arrangement of soil particles.
Over cultivation and compaction cause the soil to lose its structure and cohesion (ability to
stick together) and it erodes more easily.
A number of characteristics of an area can reduce the occurrence of Erosion (DoA, 2006). These
include:
• Organic material: Organic material is the “glue” that binds the soil particles together and
plays an important part in preventing soil erosion. Organic matter is the main source of
energy for soil organisms, both plant and animal. It also influences the infiltration capacity
of the soil, therefore reducing runoff.
• Vegetation cover: The loss of protective vegetation through overgrazing, ploughing and fire
makes soil vulnerable to being swept away by wind and water. Plants provide protective
cover on the land and prevent soil erosion for the following reasons:
o Plants slow down water as it flows over the land and this allows much of the rain to
soak into the ground.
o Plant roots hold the soil in position and prevent it from being blown or washed
away.
o Plants break the impact of a raindrop before it hits the soil, reducing the soil’s ability
to erode.
o Plants in wetlands and on the banks of rivers are important as they slow down the
flow of the water and their roots bind the soil, preventing erosion.
• Land use: Grass is the best natural soil protector against soil erosion because of its
relatively dense cover. Small grains, such as wheat, offer considerable obstruction to surface
wash. Row crops such as maize and potatoes offer little cover during the early growth stages
and thereby encourage erosion. Fallowed areas, where no crop is grown and all the residue
has been incorporated into the soil, are most subject to erosion (DoA, 2006).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 100
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Some of the following measures can be implemented to prevent soil erosion:
• The use of contour ploughing and windbreaks;
• Leave unploughed grass strips between ploughed lands (strip cropping);
• Make sure that there are always plants growing on the soil, and that the soil is rich in humus;
• Avoid overgrazing;
• Allow indigenous plants to grow along riverbanks;
• Conserve wetlands;
• Cultivate land, using a crop rotation system;
• Minimum or no tillage; and
• Encourage water infiltration and reduce water runoff (DoA, 2006).
Representatives consulted during this disaster risk assessment identified concerns related to erosion
in the NMBM. The information received from community representatives indicated that:
• Stakeholders considered erosion Class 1 hazard (regular events, ordinary, day-to-day
activities/incidents).
• Erosion hazards were identified as a concern in Ward 34 and 38 (erosion next to the road),
while coastal erosion damage, leading to damage to municipal facilities, were identified at
the NMBM coast. In both instances, representative perceived the problem of erosion to be
increasing.
• The main cause for the coastal erosion damage was perceived to be the sea conditions.
• The priority to reduce or manage risks related to erosion hazards was rated as 1.75, which
represents a priority of ‘very to medium urgent’.
7.3.3 Land Degradation
In terms of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, land degradation refers to the
reduction or loss of biological or economic productivity of agricultural lands, woodlands, and
forests. This reduction is mostly result from human activities (DEAT, 2006).
It has been estimated by UNEP that more than a quarter of the African continent is in the process of
becoming useless for cultivation because of land degradation. One of the causes of degradation is
population pressure, which forces farmers to cultivate marginal land (ICSU, 2007).
According to ICSU (2007): “The rural poor, the overwhelming majority of Africa’s population,
destroy their own environment, not out of ignorance but simply for survival. Peasant farmers
preoccupied with survival over-crop marginal land because there is no alternative employment and
no better technologies that they can afford. Pastoralists overstock to improve their chances of
surviving the next drought. Rural dwellers strip trees and shrubs for wood because they need fuel.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 101
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
In the context of the short-term basic needs of an individual, each decision is rational; in the long
run, the effects are disastrous.”
Desertification refers to land degradation in dry lands that result from both climatic variability and
human activities. Desertification occurs when several degraded patches of land expand and join to
form large, unproductive areas. Thus, desertification occurs over a larger scale than land
degradation and results in the ‘permanent’ loss of productivity and supply of ecosystem services
(DEAT, 2006).
Areas of severe degradation (that is, degradation of both soil and vegetation) and desertification in
South Africa are perceived to correspond closely with the distribution of communal rangelands,
specifically in the steeply sloping environments adjacent to the escarpment in Limpopo, KwaZulu-
Natal, and the Eastern Cape (Figure 7-11). Many communal areas in the Limpopo, North West,
Northern Cape, and Mpumalanga provinces are also severely degraded. The commercial farming
areas with the most severe degradation are located in the Western and Northern Cape provinces.
Wind and water erosion are the major natural causes of soil degradation, while change in species
composition, loss of plant cover, and bush encroachment are the most frequent forms of vegetation
degradation (DEAT, 2006).
Source: DEAT, 2006.
Figure 7-11: Distribution of land degradation based on Combined Degradation Index.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 102
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Based on Figure 7-11, it would appear as if the NMBM area has not suffered the same extent of
degradation as some of the other areas in the Eastern Cape Province.
74.4
0.2
12.7 12.6
0
20
40
60
80
100
Natural Land-cover Degradaded land-
cover
Urban land use Agricultural land
use
Land use in Selected Coastal Municipalities (%)
Nelson Mandela Cacadu eThekwini O.R Tambo Cape Town
Based on DEAT, 2006
Figure 7-12: Land use in coastal Metropolitan and D istrict Municipalities.
As show above, 74% of the NMBM area is considered to have natural land-cover, 12.7% is
considered urban land use and 12.6% is considered agricultural use. Only 0.2% is considered to be
degraded (DEAT, 2006). Representatives consulted during the stakeholder consultation sessions
identify only one specific concern with regard to land degradation. Information received indicated
that:
• Representatives considered this type of environmental degradation as a Class 1 hazard
(regular events, ordinary, day-to-day activities/incidents).
• According to representatives, mining activities in a small section of the NMBM had a
geological impact on the NMBM.
• Representative further indicated that this type of degradation is increasing and that they do
not feel the IDP addresses this concern adequately.
• Representatives rated the priority to deal with these hazards as 2.5 (Medium urgency).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 103
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
7.3.4 Loss of Biodiversity
Even though only a small percentage of the NMBM is considered to be degraded, approximately
40% of the natural features of the NMBM have already been lost (SRK 2009). The central and
eastern parts of the Municipality are largely developed for residential, commercial and industrial
purposes, while the northern, western and most southern parts of Nelson Mandela Bay are rural in
nature and are predominantly used for agricultural, low density residential and conservation
purposes. Due to the formal safe-guarding of natural areas via nature reserves and limited
development in some areas to date, vast parts of the Municipality are of high scenic value and
underpin Nelson Mandela Bay's tourism economy (SRK 2009).
Loss of biodiversity, however, is also relevant to the coastal and aquatic areas. Figure 7-13
represents the estuary health in South Africa.
Source: DEAT, 2006
Figure 7-13: Estuary health in South Africa.
The combined environmental degradation hazard map for the NMBM is shown below:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 104
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Figure 7-14: Environmental Degradation Hazard
The majority of environmental degradation was identified in the central and eastern part of the
NMBM.
7.4 Disease / Health - Disease: Animal
The Eastern Cape has previously experience problems with animal diseases, both related to animals
in game reserves and protected areas, as well as animals in agricultural environments. During the
consultations with representatives from the NMBM, the following was identified with regard to
animal disease hazards in the NMBM:
• Swine flu was identified as a Class 1 hazard (regular events, ordinary, day-to-day
activities/incidents) in all the wards of the NMBM.
• The priority to reduce or manage risks related to this hazard was rated as 2.5 (medium
urgency).
• A concern with regard to diseases caused/carried by rats was also identified as a concern in
all the wards. The priority to deal with this hazard was identified as 1 (Very urgent).
The result of the GIS based animal disease hazard mapping is shown below:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 105
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Figure 7-15: Animal Disease Hazard
7.5 Disease / Health - Disease: Human
Human disease and health hazards pose a severe threat to a large number of South African
communities. According to MSF (2007) it is estimated by the UN that over 5.5 million people in
South Africa are HIV positive and about a million are in urgent need of anti-retroviral treatment
(ART). Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of illness and death among those living with HIV
(MSF 2007).
TB, HIV and AIDS are also considered a problem in the NMBM, and this is reflected in the IDP,
with one of the IDP priorities being identified as “Provision of health services and combating
diseases such as TB, HIV and AIDS” (IDP 2009).
However, the burden of disease also includes other diseases. Several notifiable diseases in South
Africa have strong environmental links. Hepatitis and cholera are most often transmitted through
contaminated water, whereas typhoid fever is often associated with lack of clean water supply and
sanitation facilities, unplanned urbanization, and increased movement of migrant workers (DEAT,
2006).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 106
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
With regards to primary health care, the NMBM is guided by the following Millennium
Development Goals (IDP 2009):
• Between 1990 and 2015 to reduce by 2/3 the under five mortality rate;
• Between 1990 and 2015 to reduce by ¾ the maternal mortality rate;
• To have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the spread of HIV and AIDS; and
• To have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidents of malaria and other major diseases
such as TB.
According to the IDP (2009) a priority of the Municipality is to ensure universal access to all
primary health care. In this regard, the following is considered by the NMBM in providing universal
access to primary health facilities:
• the proximity of health facilities to communities;
• the conditions of the facilities;
• the levels of services provided; and
• the availability of health personnel.
Specific concerns with regards to human health in the NMBM will be discussed in more detail
below.
7.5.1 HIV/AIDS
Recent statistics on the impact of AIDS on sub-Saharan Africa indicates that the HIV and AIDS
epidemic will potentially have a devastating effect on the growth of the South African economy,
especially in the longer term. Excessively high morbidity rates amongst the most productive
segment of the labour force (especially 15–49-year-olds) impact on labour productivity, GDP growth
rates, and cost burdens to the state in terms of health care and orphaned children (DEAT, 2006).
More recently, however, life expectancy has declined dramatically, mostly because of the increased
number of HIV and AIDS infections. Although average life expectancy peaked at 67 years in 1985,
it has declined dramatically since then. It was predicted that that average life expectancy in 2004
would fall below 50 years, with 48.5 years for men and 52.7 years for women. The average for the
period 2000–2005 dropped to 46 years. It has been estimated that, by 2010, South Africa’s life
expectancy will be 48 years for those living with HIV and AIDS and 68.2 years for those who are
HIV negative (Dorrington et al. (2004) in DEAT, 2006). This situation mirrors trends in the southern
African region (DEAT, 2006).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 107
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Note: these figures are averaged over 5-yearly periods and so yearly peaks and troughs are not shown.
Source: DEAT, 2006
Figure 7-16: Life expectancy of South Africans, 195 0 – 2005
Typical other impacts of AIDS include decreased productivity of workers, increased absenteeism
and additional costs of training of new workers. It also represents a greater demand and pressure on
health facilities and as the statistics gathered from antenatal clinics indicate a very real problem of
AIDS orphans and child (minor) headed households.
The HIV prevalence according to the DoH (2007) is shown in Figure 7-17 below.
Source: DoH, 2007
Figure 7-17: HIV prevalence among antenatal clinic attendees in South Africa
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 108
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Source: DoH, 2007
Figure 7-18: HIV Antenatal Survey Prevalence by Dis trict: Eastern Cape (2006)
Source: DoH, 2007
Figure 7-19: HIV Antenatal Survey Prevalence by Dis trict: Eastern Cape (2006)
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 109
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
During stakeholder consultations in the NMBM, representatives identified HIV/AIDS as a human
disease health hazard. Information provided by stakeholders indicated that:
• Stakeholders perceive HIV/AIDS as a Class 1 hazard (regular events, ordinary, day-to-day
activities/incidents) in all the wards of the NMBM.
• The perception of stakeholders is that the cases of HIV/AIDS are increasing, and that the
main cause of the spread of HIV/AIDS relates to “sex, drugs and alcohol”.
• Stakeholders have identified that plans are being implemented, and that the Council has
established a disease management committee.
• The priority to manage and reduce the risk of HIV/AIDS was rated as priority 1 hazard (very
urgent).
According to the IDP (2009) to combat HIV and AIDS and TB, the Municipality has developed and
is currently implementing an integrated HIV and AIDS Plan focusing on the following:
• Prevention, treatment, care, support, monitoring, evaluation and research.
• Broadening access to basic services.
• Employee wellness and support.
All these initiatives require an integrated approach by the three spheres of government. Accordingly,
the Municipality established a multi-stakeholder Metropolitan AIDS Council, which sits quarterly
(IDP 2009).
7.5.2 TB, MBR-TD and XDR-TB
According to the DEAT (2006), Statistics South Africa figures show that tuberculosis (TB) was the
most dominant contributor to the growth in mortality between 1997 and 2002. Commonly referred
to as a ‘disease of poverty’, TB has the highest prevalence among South Africa’s poor. Between
1997 and 2001, TB contributed to 8% of deaths and was identified as one of the five leading
underlying causes of death among South Africans. A total of 224 420 cases of TB were registered
during 2002, representing an increase of 16% from 2001 and an incidence of 494 cases per 100 000
people (DEAT, 2006).
South Africa is burdened by one of the worst TB epidemics in the world. The human
immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is one of the most important factors responsible for exacerbating the
TB epidemic. The estimated percentage of people infected with TB who are also HIV-positive is
estimated to be around 53%. A serious challenge in the fight against TB is the emergence of the
multi drug resistant TB (MDR-TB) and the extremely drug resistant TB (XDR-TB) strains (DoH,
2008).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 110
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
In early 2005, physicians at one of the rural hospitals in KwaZulu-Natal were concerned by the high
death rate among patients infected with HIV who also had tuberculosis. Studies conducted in the
area showed that of the 544 patients studied, 221 had (MDR-TB) and of these 221 cases, 53 had
XDR-TB. Of 53 patients with XDR tuberculosis, 55% claimed they had never been treated for TB
before, thus had no history of failing to complete the medication course, which usually leads to
resistance. This implied that they had primary infection with an XDR strain. In September 2006,
the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that a deadly strain of XDR-TB had been
detected in Tugela Ferry, a rural town in KwaZulu-Natal province, the Epicenter of South Africa’s
HIV and AIDS epidemic. By 1st December 2006, South Africa had reported more than 300 cases of
XDR-TB. A total of 1,213 XDR-TB cases were reported between the year 2004 and 2007. The
number of XDR-TB cases has been escalating at alarming rates over the years. Overall, XDR-TB
cases have increased by 86% in 2007 compared to 2004 (DoH 2008).
Source: DOH, 2008
Figure 7-20: Total XDR-TB cases reported in the per iod 2004 – 2007 in South Africa
The emergence of resistance to drugs used to treat TB, and particularly MDR-TB has become a
significant public health problem in a number of countries, including South Africa. In many
countries, the extent of drug resistance is unknown and the management of patients with MDR-TB is
inadequate. According to the WHO (2006) in countries where drug resistance has been identified,
specific measures need to be taken within TB control programmes to address the problem through
appropriate management of patients and adoption of strategies to prevent the propagation and
dissemination of drug-resistant TB, including MDR-TB.
South Africa faces one of the worst tuberculosis (TB) epidemics in the world. As a result of
inappropriate or ineffective treatment, multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) has also arisen in all nine
provinces, placing a severe burden on the South African health system. Multidrug-resistant TB
(MDR-TB) is essentially a man-made problem. In the majority of cases, it emerges when a TB
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 111
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
patient receives inappropriate or ineffective treatment, which allows naturally-occurring resistant TB
bacteria to survive and multiply. Strains of MDR-TB can also be transmitted directly too susceptible
individuals, such as children and those also infected with HIV (Weyer et al, 2006).
According to Weyer et al (2006) when people with strong immune systems are exposed to MDR-
TB, they can become infected, but will normally not become sick. The MDR-TB bacteria will
remain in their bodies in a dormant state, and cannot be passed on to others. However, once an
infected person’s immune system is compromised – due to illness, a poor diet, stress or HIV – that
person can develop active MDR-TB. At a more advanced stage of the disease (when sputum tests
detect organisms under the microscope), and once a patient develops a cough, they can infect others
in their immediate environment.
The following provides an overview of some of the challenges associated with MDR-TB as
identified by Weyer et al (2006):
• High case load, despite low prevalence o MDR-TB makes up 2,9% of TB cases.
o A recent MRC study showed that there are 6 000 cases of MDR-TB in South Africa
per year.
• High risk o The infectious stage of MDR-TB (positive sputum smear) in actively coughing
patients is very contagious.
o HIV-positive individuals (who have compromised immune systems) are at a very
high risk of developing active MDR-TB after infection.
o Children are at high risk of developing active MDR-TB once they are infected.
o On average, 10% of otherwise healthy individuals infected with MDR-TB will
develop active disease in their lifetime.
• Expensive treatment o Drugs cost R30 000 per patient, compared to R300 for drug-susceptible TB.
o Treatment takes up to 24 months.
o Patients need to be hospitalised for 4–6 months.
o Laboratory investigations are extensive (monthly bacteriological cultures).
o Drug toxicity necessitates additional laboratory screening (eg. liver and kidney
function, audiometry).
The Eastern Cape has also experienced a number of cases of XDR-TB. Figure 7-21 illustrates the
total number of XDR-TB cases reported in the period 2004 – 2007 in each province.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 112
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
2004 2005 2006 2007
Eastern Cape 0 1 45 132
Free State 0 4 4 4
Gauteng 32 6 44 42
Kwazulu-Natal 19 158 279 277
Limpopo 1 0 0 4
Mpumalanga 0 0 0 7
Northern Cape 4 5 19 7
North West 0 3 12 3
Western Cape 18 7 16 60
0 1
45
132
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Total Number of XDR-TB cases reported in South Africa
(2004 - 2007)
Based on DoH, 2008
Figure 7-21: Total XDR-TB cases reported in the per iod 2004 – 2007 in South Africa
Of the 1,213 cases reported during this period, the majority (60%) were from KwaZulu-Natal,
followed by Eastern Cape (15%), and Gauteng Province (10%) The number of XDR-TB cases
reported in KwaZulu-Natal increased dramatically from 19 in 2004 to 277 cases in 2007 (DoH
2008).
TB is also considered a severe problem in the NMBM and according to the IDP (2009) Nelson
Mandela Bay has been identified by the national government as a TB crisis district and is therefore
charged with implementing the National Health TB Crisis Plan. According to the DoH (2008) the
following are recommended for the management of XDR-TB:
• Susceptibility testing is recommended for patients with treatment interruptions. Routine sputum
culture and susceptibility testing of all patients suspected of having TB should form part of a
multifaceted approach to identifying and addressing TB drug resistance.
• Political Support and funding allocated to strengthen the response to MDR-TB and XDR-TB,
including improvement of facilities where patients with drug resistant strains of TB are
hospitalised.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 113
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
• Strengthening of surveillance and establishing early warning systems.
• The development of drug resistance may result from inappropriate treatment regimens (e.g.
choice of drugs, dosage, duration of treatment), programme factors (irregular drug supply,
inadequacy of health personnel). As a result, ongoing monitoring and evaluation programs are
therefore critical for strengthen the shortcoming (DoH 2008).
7.5.3 Other Diseases
As in any other region of South Africa, the poor experience above normal rates of infectious disease.
Malnutrition lowers the body’s resistance to illness and illness aggravates malnutrition. Inadequate
services and shelter or housing also creates conditions that promote disease. Without decent
protection, many of the poor are exposed to severe and dangerous weather as well as to bacteria and
viruses carried by other people and animals (Colgan, 2002).
The pattern of disease differs dramatically between First and Third World countries. The major
killers in the First World are cancer (15%) and circulatory diseases (32%), whereas in the Third
World cancer accounts for (4%) and circulatory diseases (15%). The big killers in the poor countries
are infectious, parasitic and respiratory diseases, often worsened by the effects of malnutrition and
the HIV/Aids epidemic. These diseases cause forty four percent (44%) of deaths in the Third World
compared to eleven percent (11%) in the First World (Harrison, 1993; Colgan, 2002).
Disease also has major economic implications through the costs of caring for the ill, ill people not
being able to go to work, and the loss of breadwinners in many families. A family's well-being is
strongly linked with the physical health of its members so when an economically active family-
member becomes ill or disabled, the entire family faces an economic as well as a physical burden.
During consultations with representatives from the NMBM, other diseases were also identified as a
concern. Information received from representatives indicates that:
• Both Cholera and Measles are considered a Class 2 hazard (Rare Events, out of the ordinary,
but still manageable) in the NMBM;
• Representatives identified measles as a concern in all of the wards, while Cholera was
identified as a concern in Wards 33, 36, 37, 40 and 41;
• The main cause of Cholera was identified as a lack of sanitation and funding.
Representatives further indicated that the IDP does not adequately address the problems
associated with Cholera and Measles.
• The priority to manage and reduce the risk of Cholera was rated as 1 (Very urgent) while the
priority to manage measles was rated as 2.5 (Medium urgency).
The NMBM Fires Services statistics were also used to identify events related to human health and
disease hazards. Even though these statistics only provide an overview o the activities of the Fire
Services, the following was calculated based on the received statistics:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 114
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Table 7-6: Ambulance Incident and Rescue Statistics related to Human Health and Disease Hazards
Event Description Probability
(Over a 1 Year Period)
Frequency of Events
(Rounded) Comments
Ambulance
Incident
Assault 17% 1 Event per 5.9 years Based on Fire
Services Statistics
only, and does not
include information
from other
Emergency
Services.
Cardiac 11% 1 Event per 8.9 years
Collapse 6% 1 Event per 17.8 years
Maternity 17% 1 Event per 5.9 years
Medical 100% 1 Event per 0.9 years
Miscellaneous 28% 1 Event per 3.6 years
Removal 17% 1 Event per 5.9 years
Total 100% 1 Event per 0.5 years
Rescues
Land Base 100% 1 Event per 19.1 days Based only on Fire
Services Statistics Land Based* 6% 1 Event per 6,513 days
Medical Rescue 100% 1 Event per 28.1 days * -Category seems to be part of the Land Base category, however, investigation into classifications was not included as part of this assessment.
The GIS human disease and health hazard map for the NMBM are shown below:
Figure 7-22: Human Disease Hazard
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 115
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
7.6 Disease / Health - Disease: Plants
No specific information with regard to plant disease hazards in the NMBM was received.
7.7 Fire Hazards
Fire hazards are considered a risk for both urban and developed areas as well as rural and
undeveloped areas. Fire can also be considered both a naturally occurring hazard, caused by lighting
or other natural processes, and also a man-made hazard, when considered in developed urban areas.
For the purpose of this disaster risk assessment, fire hazards were divided into:
• Formal & Informal Settlement and Urban Fires; and
• Veld and Forest Fires.
7.7.1 Veld, Forest Fires and Wild Fire
Much of sub-Saharan Africa is susceptible to fires, which destroy pastures, crops, buildings, and
infrastructure. Even though natural fires can be ignited by lightning, human beings are mostly
responsible for veld fires (ICSU, 2007).
The large area affected by fires has implications for short-term productivity and long-term land
degradation processes, which eventually contribute to famine during drought periods. Combined
with intense drought, these fires destroy biodiversity and reduce the regeneration capacity of the
vegetation. Although fires cause few deaths, valuable resources are lost, thereby contributing to
poverty. Pasture is destroyed, and animals have to be moved or funds allocated to purchase their
feed. According to the Air Pollution Information Network Africa (APINA), fires also affect air
quality and generate greenhouse gases. In addition, they can affect hydrological processes such as
run-off and may lead to soil erosion (ICSU, 2007).
The risk associated with veldfires in South Africa is substantial, and veldfires cause severe losses to
life, property and the environment in most areas of the country. However, this risk has two parts:
first, that arising from wildfires (i.e. unwanted veldfires) that cause damage to assets, and, second,
the risk arising from ecologically inappropriate fire regimes in environments where fire plays an
ecological role. As in most countries with wildfires, the risk can be managed to acceptable levels at
acceptable cost, provided a comprehensive approach, based on integrated natural resource
management within a proper development planning and management framework, is adopted and
applied consistently (Kruger, et al., 2006).
Kruger, et al., (2006) compiled a risk classification, in order to classifying vegetation types and each
metropolitan and local municipality in South Africa according to classes of wildfire risk. It also
deals with the environmental risk associated with inappropriate fire regimes. “These two dimensions
of risk need to be examined together, since experience in South Africa and elsewhere has shown that
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 116
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
managing the two dimensions separately leads inevitably to long-term environmental and resource
degradation, rising costs of wildfire suppression and intractable problems in maintaining a safe
environment.” (Kruger, et al., 2006).
The term ‘wildfire risk’ was used as the standard sense, i.e. it is the chance of a fire igniting,
spreading and causing damage to one or more assets, measured in terms of likelihood and
consequence to the assets.
The risk classification was based in the first place on information on the prevailing natural
vegetation in any part of the country. For each vegetation type, the likelihood of wildfires occurring
in that vegetation was established, and the consequences that arise in modern times when such
wildfires occur. This combination of likelihood and consequence allows the risk to be rated. Then,
using the spatial distribution of vegetation types, a risk class was assigned to each metropolitan and
local municipality.
Figure 7-23: Municipalities classified according to levels of veld fire risk (April 2003)
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 117
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Based on this assessment, the NMBM is located in a Low Risk Veldfire area. Representatives from
the NMBM also provided information with regard to veld fire hazards. Information collected from
the individuals indicated that:
• Veld fires are considered a Class 1 hazard (regular events, ordinary, day-to-day
activities/incidents) in all the wards of the NMBM.
• It was the perception of representatives that the main cause of the identified veld fires in the
NMBM was arson, and the priority to reduce and manage the risk of veldfire was identified
as 1 (Very urgent).
Statistics with regard to vegetation fires was received from the Fire Services. Results based on
calculations of the probability and frequency of recorded events is shown below:
Table 7-7: Vegetation Fires Statistics
Event Description Probability
(Over a 1 Year Period)
Frequency of Events
(Rounded) Comments
Vegetation Fires
Bush, Forests &
Plantation 100% 1 Event per 241 days
Based only
on Fire
Services
Statistics
Grass/Bush All
other Areas 6% 1 Event per 6,513 days
Grass / Bush on
Pavement 100% 1 Event per 12.4 days
Grass / Bush
Open Areas 100% 1 Event per 0.2 days
Total 100% 1 Event per 0.2 days
Source: NMBM, 2010.
The NMBM (s.a.) identified potential impacts of ‘bush’ fire on medical and health operations in the
NMBM. These include:
• Fire may threaten, damaged or destroyed fixed facilities including medical and emergency
services;
• Response to fire events might require evacuation of entire communities and/or medical
facilities;
• Fire can impair land transportation;
• Air quality can cause health problems for vulnerable populations well outside of the area
threatened by the fire;
• Fire suppression needs may limit personnel availability for emergency medical response;
• Fire often causes hazardous conditions for field responders; and
• Fire may be sustained and require a response for several weeks.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 118
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
7.7.2 Formal & Informal Settlements / Urban Fires
Veld fires are not the only form of fire that can pose a risk to the NMBM, but formal and informal
settlement and urban fires can also pose a serious risk to the NMBM.
Informal settlements often do not comply with local requirements for conventional (formal)
townships and are consequently areas of increasingly high risk with regard to fire. This is also due to
the following general characteristics of informal settlements (CM, s.a.):
• Informal settlements often have inadequate infrastructure;
• The informal settlement and surrounding environment is often considered unsuitable;
• Informal settlement are often characterised by population densities that are uncontrolled and
unhealthy high;
• There is often poor access to health and educational facilities as well as employment
opportunities in informal settlements;
• Informal settlement often have a lack of effective governance and management; and
• Individual dwellings within informal settlements are often considered inadequate.
All of the above factors can contribute to an increased risk of fire in informal settlements. Formally
established urban environments, such as areas in the NMBM, are also at risk to fire. During
consultations with stakeholders in the NMBM, the following information with regard to fires in the
NMBM was collected:
• Fires (Formal and Informal Settlement Fires) were rated as a Class 1 hazard (regular events,
ordinary, day-to-day activities/incidents).
• The main areas identified by representatives where fires are a concern are Wards 34, 36, 41,
42 and 53.
• The main causes of fire hazards in these areas were identified as “human negligence,
candles, using fires inside houses/dwellings, and alcohol.
• The main challenges associated with dealing with fire hazards were identified as a lack of
service delivery; however representatives indicated that fire hazards are considered in the
IDP.
• The priority to deal with fire hazards were rated as 1 (Very urgent).
Statistics received from the Fire Services (NMBM, 2010) indicated the following with regard to
building, informal settlement and rubbish fires in the NMBM.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 119
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Table 7-8: Building, Informal Settlement and Rubbis h Fires Statistics
Event Description Probability
(Over a 1 Year Period)
Frequency of Events
(Rounded) Comments
Building Fires
All Other
Buildings 100% 1 Event per 2.8 days
Based only
on Fire
Services
Statistics
Auto Fire
Alarms 100% 1 Event per 86.8 days
Dwelling /
Outhouses 100% 1 Event per 1.8 days
Informal
Dwellings 100% 1 Event per 9.1 days
Total 100% 1 Event per 1 days
Informal
Settlement Fires
All Other
Buildings 17% 1 Event per 2,171 days
Dwellings /
Outhouses 100% 1 Event per 8.6 days
Total 100% 1 Event per 8.6 days
Rubbish Fires
Bins & Drums 100% 1 Event per 21.6 days
Enclosed 100% 1 Event per 11.0 days
Open Area 100% 1 Event per 5.9 days
Total 100% 1 Event per 3.3 days
The NMBM (s.a.) indicated that large urban fires can have the following impact on medical and
health operations in the NMBM:
• May consume large areas;
• Fire events can disrupt the movement of traffic and utilities; and
• Fire suppression needs may limit the availability of personnel for emergency medical
response.
The Fire hazard modelling for the NMBM was based on the land-use/land-cover map of the NMBM.
The various land-use categories were classified in terms of fire related factors, and these factors were
used to map fire hazard areas in the NMBM. The factors are shown below:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 120
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Table 7-9: Fire Hazard Classification
Landuse Fire Hazard
Value Landuse
Fire Hazard
Value
Agriculture 0.60 Open Space 0.50
Airfield 0.50 Park 0.50
Airport 0.57 Plantations 0.63
Authority 0.47 Prison 0.60
Business 0.47 Private Nature Reserve 0.57
Canal 0.23 Race Track (Cars) 0.70
Cemeteries and Sewage Disposal 0.50 Railways 0.53
Church 0.30 Residential 0.50
Coastline 0.17 Residential Rural 0.53
Commercial 0.47 Resort 0.53
Creche 0.47 Roads and Parking Areas 0.37
Dam 0.40 Rural Residential 0.53
Game Farm 0.57 Saltworks 0.30
Government 0.47 Schools 0.57
Harbour 0.57 Services/Servitude 0.47
Hospital 0.47 Small holdings 0.63
Industrial 0.67 Special Environmental 0.57
Informal Settlements 0.57 Sport Stadium 0.53
Institutional 0.47 Sport and Recreation 0.40
Lighthouse 0.33 Undeveloped Disturbed Areas 0.53
Local Authority 0.47 Undeveloped Natural Areas 0.60
Major Hazardous Installation 0.80 University 0.50
Mine 0.60 Waste Site 0.63
National Park 0.57 Waterbody 0.37
Figure 7-24 indicates the fire hazard scenario for the NMBM based on the characteristics of the
associated land use of an area.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 121
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Figure 7-24: Fire Hazard
7.8 Floods (River, Urban & Dam Failure)
Also see Section 7.10 for more information on the Hydro-meteorological hazards in the NMBM.
This section also contains additional information on flooding in the NMBM.
Floods are among the most devastating natural hazards in Africa, whereas flash floods are among the
greatest hazards arising from tropical cyclones and severe storms. Floods and flash floods cause loss
of life, damage to property, and promote the spread of diseases such as cholera. From 1900 to 2006,
floods in Africa killed nearly 20 000 people, affected nearly 40 million more, and caused damage
estimated at about US$4 billion (ICSU, 2007). While the primary cause of flooding is abnormally
high rainfall, there are many human-induced contributory causes such as:
• land degradation;
• deforestation of catchment areas;
• increased population density along riverbanks;
• poor land use planning, zoning, and control of flood plain development;
• inadequate drainage, particularly in cities; and
• inadequate management of discharges from river reservoirs (ICSU, 2007).
Flooding can also be caused by the failure of dams, both constructed and natural.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 122
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
7.8.1 River & Urban Flooding
A flood is generally a normal event for any river or stream that could occur over a period of time
varying from several times a year to once every few hundred years. Floods are caused when excess
water from heavy rainfall, snowmelt or storm surge accumulates and overflows the river or stream’s
normal path onto its banks and adjacent floodplains (Miller, 1997).
Several factors determine the severity of floods, including rainfall intensity and duration. A large
amount of rainfall in a short time span can cause flash flooding. A small amount of rain can also
cause flooding if the soil is saturated from a previous wet period, or if the rain is concentrated in
areas where the surface is impermeable, such as in developed areas where most of the surface is
covered with concrete, tar and other building materials (Federal Emergency Management Agency,
1997).
Topography and groundcover are also contributing factors for floods. Water runoff is higher in areas
with a steep slope and low vegetation density. Urbanization of floodplains and manipulation of
stream channels have increased both the frequency and magnitude of floods in many areas. Floods
are most common in the season of highest precipitation (Miller, 1997).
According to Sampson (2007) flooding has always been an integral part of the Port Elizabeth city’s
history. This is well documented and all should be fully aware of the destructive nature of these
severe rainfall events. Be that as it may, numerous warnings have gone unheeded and development
has taken place on wetlands, marshes, flood plains and even in a lagoon (the Baakens lagoon was
reclaimed), leading to a substantial loss of life and damage to property during flood events.
It must be stated that the extreme events that occur in the NMBM area, although widespread, have a
small central area of about 5 to 10 km in diameter where extreme rainfall values are recorded,
sometimes double that of an area 5 to 10km away. As technology and more recording stations are
added to the area, this is seen in all of these events, no matter their severity (Sampson, 2007).
Representatives from the NMBM identified flooding as a concern in the NMBM. Information
received from the representatives indicated that:
• Floods were rated as a Class 1 hazard (regular events, ordinary, day-to-day
activities/incidents) being caused by poor drainage system.
• Areas that were specifically identified as high risk areas to flooding were Ward 11, 35, 38
and Soza street.
• Representatives indicated that a lack of funding was the main constraint in managing floods,
but that the IDP does make provision for risk reduction related to floods.
• The priority to deal with flood hazards was rated as 1 (Very urgent).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 123
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
The NMBM (s.a.) indicates that the characteristics of flooding: (riverine, flash, floodplain or other)
and the main impact on Medical and Health Operations in the NMBM may include:
• Flooding can be rapid in onset or development;
• Flooding can impair land transportation;
• Flooding can lead to the closure or a diminished functionality of some fixed facilities;
• Flooding can lead to the disruption of utilities;
• Flooding may require evacuation of medical facilities;
• Flooding can cause hazardous conditions for field responders, and may interfere with
emergency personnel reporting for duty;
• Flooding can also lead to the release of hazardous materials; and
• Flooding events can be sustained for several days (NMBM, s.a.).
7.8.2 Dam Failure Flooding
No specific information with regards to dam failure was received. However, the NMBM (s.a.)
indicates that flooding due to dam failures can have the following impact on Medical and Health
Operations in the NMBM:
• Flooding may require evacuation of large areas, including health facilities and emergency
services locations; and
• Flooding caused by dam failure can restrict or impair land transportation;
All the impacts of river and urban flooding do also apply to flooding due to failure of dams. Figure
7-25 represents the results of the flood hazard mapping for the NMBM.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 124
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Figure 7-25: Flood Hazard
7.9 Geological Hazards
Disasters due to geological hazards have a far smaller impact on sub-Saharan Africa than those due
to hydro-meteorological hazards (ICSU, 2007). Earthquakes account for 2%, and landslides and
volcanic hazards account for 1% of the number of hazards occurring on the African continent,
however, the impact of these hazards may change in future (ICSU, 2007). For the purpose of this
assessment, geological hazards were divided into three categories, namely:
• Earthquakes;
• Landslides, mud flows and rock-falls; and
• Subsidence.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 125
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
7.9.1 Earthquake
ICSU (2007) describes the risk of earthquakes in the southern African region as follows:
“Sub-Saharan Africa is largely a stable intra-plate region characterized by relatively low levels of
seismic activity, with earthquakes randomly distributed in space and time. The only parts of sub-
Saharan Africa that do not display the characteristics of an intra-plate region are the East African
Rift System and the Cameroon Volcanic Line, where earthquakes are associated with active fault
zones and volcanic activity.
Earthquakes also occur occasionally in the Cape Fold Belt in South Africa. In this region, the most
destructive recorded earthquake was a M6.3 event that took place on 29 September 1969 in the
Ceres–Tulbagh region of the Western Cape, which killed 12 people. Aftershock activity had virtually
ceased when a M5.7 event occurred on 14 April 1970, causing further damage in the towns of Ceres
and Wolseley.
The impoundment of reservoirs has also been known to trigger earthquakes. Seismicity has been
associated with the Gariep Dam in South Africa and the Katse Dam in Lesotho. Mining-related
earthquakes pose a significant hazard to mineworkers in the gold and platinum mining districts of
South Africa. Thousands of mineworkers have perished during the last century as a result of rock
bursting. No member of the public has suffered fatal or even serious injuries due to mining-related
earthquakes, although some events have damaged surface structures. The M5.3 event on 9 March
2005 near Stilfontein (South Africa), for example, caused serious damage to schools, commercial
properties, apartment blocks, the civic centre, and 25 houses.
However, African research institutions have limited capability to mitigate and respond to
earthquake hazards and disasters. Currently, no earthquake warning system in the region comes
close to the required level of reliability. A sustainable earthquake disaster mitigation strategy
requires the compilation of base maps of known faults, as well as efforts to detect possible unknown
faults. It is also necessary to build interactive databases of high-risk areas and integrate them with
population distribution, seismic history, and vulnerability to hazards and disasters” (ICSU, 2007).
South Africa as a whole does not normally get large tremors except in the Witwatersrand where they
result from mining activities (Markman, 2010). A number of seismic events have been recorded in
and surrounding the NMBM area, and are shown below (ESKOM s.a.):
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 126
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Table 7-10: Historical Record of Seismic Activity i n the vicinity of the NMBM
Source: ESKOM, s.a.
In addition to the record above, Markman (2010) describes the history of earthquakes and
earthquake risk in the NMBM as follows:
“Earthquakes are not unknown events in the Eastern Cape, with tremors having been felt in Port
Elizabeth more than a few times and the last quake in the region a mere two months ago offshore.”
Markman (2010) mentioned that the following events have taken place in the NMBM:
• One of the earliest recorded earthquakes struck at 10.15pm on Tuesday, May 21, 1850. The
shock was not very severe, but “sufficient to alarm the more nervous members of our
population and to awaken from their first slumbers those who had retired at a very early hour
to rest,” reported the Eastern Province Herald. The earth shook for about a minute and those
inside their homes described the shaking as though it was a very violent wind. The
newspaper reported that there had never been an earthquake in the young town before. “The
shock was felt most severely towards the north and west ends of the town. It was sufficient
in these quarters to move lighter articles, such as glasses, mantle-piece ornaments, etc, from
their places,” the Herald reported. After the earthquake had subsided, most residents went
outside to inspect their buildings for damage. The air was very still and a heavy dew had
descended. Several people said they had perceived a sulphurous smell during the earthquake.
There are reports in Morse Jones’s Lower Albany Chronicle in which it was noted the
tremor was also felt in the Lower Albany area and had been violent enough to inspire the
local Xhosa community to come up with a special word for it: inyikima.
• In January 1900, a quake was felt in the Tsitsikamma area strong enough to dislodge
crockery from shelves in some houses.
• Another tremor was felt in Port Elizabeth in 1912.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 127
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
• On December 4, 1920, a tremor lasting about 20 seconds, the result of a strong earthquake
out at sea, was felt in Port Elizabeth, Cape Town and George.
• In 1929, an early morning earthquake large enough to cause damage to buildings was felt in
Grahamstown.
• This was followed on August 9, 1932 by a fair-sized tremor felt in Alice, Queenstown and
Graaff-Reinet.
• There have been several other occasions when Port Elizabeth felt the earth shake. At 3am on
January 12, 1968, a tremor shook the Eastern and Southern Cape and was felt in Port
Elizabeth, Uitenhage, Mossel Bay and Graaff-Reinet. It lasted about two minutes and was
hard enough in Uitenhage to cause furniture to move and pictures to fall from the walls of
homes. In Joubertina, Leon Olivier, 14, was shaken off his bed. A glass containing false
teeth, which was knocked off a table, became a talking point.
• On October 3, 1977, a tremor felt at many places in Port Elizabeth between New Brighton,
Summerstrand and Seaview, was recorded in Pretoria. It was not to be the last.
• The Herald reported that at 8.55pm on Sunday, October 5, 1986, a strong tremor – registered
at 4.9 on the Richter scale – “rocked buildings and sent people fleeing from their homes” as
it rippled its way through large sections of Natal and the Eastern Cape. The tremor was felt
in Port Elizabeth, East London, Aliwal North, Queenstown, Elliot, Mthatha and Durban. A
caller to The Herald said it had been violent enough to knock ornaments from a table. On the
Port Elizabeth beachfront, residents in Mutualhof (now The Beaches) in Humewood and
Marine Towers in Summerstrand reported a severe shaking which “seemed to last a few
minutes”. Residents in Swartkops, Greenbushes, North End and Kini Bay all reported
feeling the tremor. Dr Robert Kleywegt, of the Mineral and Energy Affairs Department, said
at the time that coastal towns and cities were particularly prone to the effects of minor
tremors. “Along the coast, a lot of high-rise buildings are on poor foundations – piles driven
into waterlogged sand.” It is believed that the tremor’s epicenter was in Lesotho or the
north- Eastern Cape.
• The worst earthquake to hit South Africa struck on September 29, 1969, when nine people
were killed in the areas of Tulbagh, Prince Albert, Ceres and Wolseley during a 6.5
magnitude earthquake. Damage, which included many historic buildings in Tulbagh, totaled
R20-million.
• The most recent earthquake occurred two months ago – on December 1 – 10km off the
Transkei coast.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 128
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
According to Markman (2010) there are three ancient fault lines in Port Elizabeth where some slight
movements can still occur. They include the following:
• The Moregrove fault runs along the Port Elizabeth beachfront from Pollok Beach,
Summerstrand, along the shoreline, through the Baakens Valley and ending at the
Moregrove quarry near the Kragga Kamma interchange. The water which continually runs
across Lower Valley Road near the old PE Tramways building is underground water seeping
to the surface through the Moregrove fault;
• Another, the so-called Chelsea- Noordhoek fault, runs parallel to the Schoenmakerskop
coast; and
• The third fault runs in the Coega area.
Buettner (in Markman 2010) states that “major seismic activity in the region was linked to the break-
up of the super- continent Gondwana (about) 150 to 125 million years ago. At that time, the Earth’s
crust was stretched and extended, forming faults, fractures along of which crustal blocks moved
downwards. The major tectonic movements came to an end more than 100 million years ago, and
what causes occasional tremors nowadays is just an aftermath which is not likely to end up in a
significant earthquake.”
According to Fernandez and Guzman (1979a in ESKOM 2001) the Modified Mercalli Scale
Intensities are unlikely to exceed VI every 100 years or VII every 500 years in the NMBM region.
Approximate probabilities for earthquakes of this nature are presented below:
Table 7-11: Earthquake Probability (Fernandez and G uzman (1979a in ESKOM 2001))
Event Description
Probability
(Over a 1 Year
Period)
Frequency of
Events
(Rounded)
Comment
Earthquake
MMS: VI
(Strong)
Felt by all; many frightened and run
outdoors, walk unsteadily. Windows,
dishes, glassware broken; books fall
off shelves; some heavy furniture
moved or overturned; a few instances
of fallen plaster. Damage slight.
1% 1 in 100 Years
Information
related to other
intensity events is
not shown. Earthquake
MMS: VII
(Very Strong)
Damage slight in specially designed
structures; considerable in ordinary
substantial buildings with partial
collapse. Damage great in poorly built
structures. Fall of chimneys, factory
stacks, columns, monuments, walls.
Heavy furniture moved.
0.2% 1 in 500 Years
Source: NMBM, 2010.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 129
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
An area-characteristic probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay
Municipality (Kijko 2010) concluded that:
“The result of the investigation is that the seismic risk faced by the Nelson Mandela Bay
Municipality, Port Elizabeth is non negligible. This study is only based on PSHA calculations. For
structures of high importance (ports), and that pose a high environmental risk, (like chemical
factories), a full–scale seismic–hazard investigation is required which encompasses the following:
• The investigation of applicable guidelines, codes and standards available nationally and
internationally for the seismic design of critical facilities;
• The derivation of a seismotectonic model for the region;
• The investigation of ground–motion attenuation models for the region;
• The investigation of the potential for surface faulting or deformation at the site; and
• The investigation of the secondary effects of earthquakes such as liquefaction, landslides
and tsunamis”
The Council for Geoscience (CGS 2010) also recommended that “a proper seismic hazard
assessment be undertaken, given the seismo-tectonic setting of the greater Nelson Mandela Bay
Municipality area”.
According to the NMBM (s.a.), earthquakes can have the following impact on medical and health
operations in the NMBM:
• Structural and non-structural damage can occur to fixed facilities including medical and emergency services sites;
• Evacuation of facilities might be required;
• Earthquakes may cause impaired ground transportation and disruption of utilities;
• Earthquake events may give risk to secondary hazards such as fires, landslides, and dam failure;
• A high incidence of blunt and penetrating trauma and secondary medical emergencies can be associated with earthquake events; and
• Displaced populations may be reluctant to accept shelter indoors.
7.9.2 Landslides/Mud flows/Rock-fall and Subsidence
Mass movements, which include a range of natural phenomena such as landslides, mudflows,
erosion, and siltation, are affected by rock and soil types, rainfall patterns, topography, and
vegetation. Human factors that contribute to mass movements include overpopulation,
deforestation, and poor land management practices. Landslides and mudflows can cause
considerable loss of life, and damage to croplands and infrastructure such as highways, railways, and
pipelines (ICSU, 2007).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 130
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
No specific information with regards to landslides and associated hazards was received from
representatives in the NMBM. The only information received from representatives related to a
degradation hazard associated with mining activities, and leading to a geological impact. Even
though this does not necessarily constitute a geological hazard, the nature of the hazard identified by
the stakeholder is unclear, and was therefore also considered a geological hazard until more
information related to the hazard can be confirmed.
According to the NMBM (s.a.), landslides or subsidence can have the following impact on medical
and health operations in the NMBM:
• Landslides can impair land transportation;
• Landslides and subsidence can impact on fixed facilities;
• Utilities can be disrupted by landslides or subsidence; and
• The risk of subsequent landslides can be increased.
Figure 7-26: Geological Hazards
No further information with regard to Geological hazards was received.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 131
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
7.10 Hydro-meteorological Hazards
According to the World Meteorological Organization, ninety percent (90%) of all natural disasters
worldwide are related to weather, climate and water (Sampson, 2007).
In sub-Saharan Africa, hydro-meteorological events account for most of the disasters, and they
impact on nearly every country. They include floods, tropical cyclones, storm wave surges,
droughts, extremely high temperatures (global warming), wildfires, sand or dust storms, and
landslides and avalanches. According to ICSU (2007) in the period 1975–2002, disasters of hydro-
meteorological origin constituted 59% of the total number of natural disasters that occurred in sub-
Saharan, with floods accounting for 27%, droughts for 21%, windstorms (particularly tropical
cyclones) for 9%, and wildfires for 1%. An alarming trend is the increasing number of people
affected by natural hazards of hydro-meteorological origin, with drought, flooding, and windstorms
accounting for 90% of the total number of people affected. Global climate change will continue to
alter the risk associated with hydro-meteorological hazards (ICSU, 2007).
South Africa is particularly vulnerable to floods, drought, bush fires, severe thunder storms and
extreme heat and cold. The Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipal area is no stranger to floods
and water restrictions, as most residents will attest to. Gale force winds have also become an
irritating norm, but their threat has been minimised in recent times. However, droughts and flooding
have always been a part of the city’s history and are often “forgotten” or “ignored” when they have
not occurred for an extended period. The effects can range from minor damage to catastrophic
devastation, as was the case in 1968 when there was widespread damage and destruction (Sampson,
2007).
Sampson (2007) summarizes the NMBM’s profile with regard to hydro-meteorological hazards as
follows: “…the largest meteorological risk to the city, however, is its erratic rainfall, i.e. too much or
too little. Essentially the NMMM area’s rainfall is unreliable and susceptible to extended periods of
below average rainfall. Floods and droughts are an integral part of the NMBM’s history. Although
rainfall averages do not reflect a relatively dry area (634 mm per year) the area seldom receives
“normal” average rainfall. In fact the metropolitan area does not receive average annual rainfall
60% of the time. Considering this fact, it is evident that the area is reliant on extreme events (floods)
to ensure the water supply of the metropolitan area. The system which provides the NMBM with
these extreme rainfalls events is known as a cut-off low. It can yield a rainfall figure equal to a
normal monthly, six monthly or even a yearly average in less than 24 hours, as occurred in 1968
when 429 mm was measured in the space of a few hours. Besides convective events (thunderstorms)
that can lead to flash flooding, it is the cut-off low that is the major cause of flooding in and around
the metropolitan area. However, as previously mentioned an absence of these severe events for an
extended period will result in a “drought” and thus water restrictions for the NMBM. To simplify
matters, if the city is not recovering from flooding it will generally be experiencing drought
(Sampson, 2007).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 132
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
7.10.1 Drought
Future projections show a net overall global drying trend, and the proportion of the land surface
affected by extreme drought is predicted to increase from 1% at present to 30% by the end of the
21st century. The drying trend is related to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gasses and
sulphate aerosols into the atmosphere (Burke et al., 2006). Although droughts under current climate
conditions affect many parts of the globe, they are a particular concern in sub-Saharan Africa. A
large part of sub-Saharan Africa is susceptible to drought. In southern Africa, severe droughts (such
as those of 1982–1983 and 1997–1998) have been linked to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) phenomenon. Nearly all climate change projections signal greater chances of severe
droughts over southern Africa, particularly in the central and western areas (IPCC, 2001; Scholes &
Biggs, 2004 in ICSU, 2007). According to ICSU (2007) the most serious result of drought is
famine. Drought and famine are not sudden events but rather the end result of long-term degradation
of the environment due to poor land use and irrational exploitation of natural resources.
According to Sampson (2007) in a South African context, the concept of drought is not easily
defined. The South African Weather Service defines drought on the basis of the degree of dryness in
comparison to “normal” or average amounts of rainfall for a particular area or place and the duration
of the dry period. This is what is termed a meteorological drought. The common practice to date
has been to use the percentage of normal rainfall as an indicator of drought. Less than 75% of
normal rainfall is regarded as a severe meteorological drought but a shortfall of 80% of normal will
cause crop and water shortages, which will ultimately affect social and economic factors. Normal
rainfall for a particular place is calculated using rainfall figures for at least 30 years. Other climatic
factors such as high temperature, high wind, low soil moisture and low relative humidity can
significantly aggravate the severity of drought conditions and these should also be taken into
account. Assessing the severity of a drought period and the magnitude of the impact based purely on
the definition of a “percentage of normal rainfall” is extremely difficult and so it has become
necessary to look at introducing other “drought indices” to assist decision-makers (Sampson, 2007).
According to Mortimore (1998) drought can be defined in several different ways. Drought always
implies a reduction in rainfall, but this reduction can have variable impacts depending on the length
of the drought and the deviation from the expected or average rainfall of an area. Drought can
therefore have several different definitions:
• Meteorological drought is usually identified when there is a reduction in the expected or average rainfall of an area.
• Hydrological drought implies a deficiency in ground and surface water conditions, often linked only indirectly to rainfall because of interregional water transfers by rivers or pipelines or storage in dams or reservoirs.
• Agricultural drought is a deficiency defined in relation to a particular crop and its requirements. For example, we know how much rain is needed to produce a certain amount of a specific crop type and any rainfall less than that expected or outside the specific crop’s growing season, would lead to a drop in production.
• Ecological drought is a situation in which the rainfall is insufficient to support normal growth of the natural vegetation (Mortimore, 1998).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 133
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
At the time of this assessment, the NMBM had been reported to be experiencing a severe drought
period. This was also mentioned by representatives of the NMBM during consultation sessions.
Information received from stakeholders indicated that:
• Drought is considered a Class 1 hazard (regular events, ordinary, day-to-day
activities/incidents) affecting all the wards within the NMBM;
• Based on the response from individuals, the perceived cause of the drought is related to
“Climate change” and that there is a shortage of dams in the NMBM.
• Secondary hazards caused by the event include death of livestock and poor agricultural
yield.
• Representatives also indicated that the priority to deal with drought hazards is considered
very urgent (1).
In order to represent the drought hazard spatially, the land-use/land-cover data of the NMBM was
used. The different land-use categories were assigned a value, based on the probable impact the
drought hazard might have on the particular land-use. For example: Agricultural areas are the most
likely to experience the impact of drought, while industries with large water demand could also be
negatively affected. The ratings used for the drought mapping are shown below:
Table 7-12: Drought hazard indicator
Landuse Core Landuse Core
Agriculture 1.00 Open Space 0.30
Airfield 0.20 Park 0.30
Airport 0.20 Plantations 0.80
Authority 0.40 Prison 0.30
Business 0.50 Private Nature Reserve 0.70
Canal 0.10 Race Track (Cars) 0.10
Cemeteries and Sewage Disposal 0.30 Railways 0.10
Church 0.30 Residential 0.50
Coastline 0.10 Residential Rural 0.70
Commercial 0.60 Resort 0.50
Creche 0.50 Roads and Parking Areas 0.10
Dam 0.70 Rural Residential 0.70
Game Farm 0.70 Saltworks 0.60
Government 0.30 Schools 0.30
Harbour 0.10 Services/Servitude 0.10
Hospital 0.30 Small holdings 0.70
Industrial 0.70 Special Environmental 0.70
Informal Settlements 0.60 Sport Stadium 0.10
Institutional 0.30 Sport and Recreation 0.40
Lighthouse 0.10 Undeveloped Disturbed Areas 0.60
Local Authority 0.30 Undeveloped Natural Areas 0.70
Major Hazardous Installation 0.30 University 0.30
Mine 0.60 Waste Site 0.10
National Park 0.70 Waterbody 0.60
The result of the drought mapping is shown in Figure 7-27.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 134
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Figure 7-27: Drought hazard
7.10.2 Severe Storms (Wind, Hail, Lightning, Fog)
Severe storms can cause wide spread damage, destruction and loss of life. For the purpose of this
assessment, severe storms will be considered to include high winds, hail, lightning and fog hazards.
According to Pyle (2006) “severe convective storms are recognized as exceptionally powerful and
destructive meteorological events which result in both death and loss of property, as well as
livelihood in many parts of the world. The frequency and magnitude of severe weather events such
as tropical cyclones, hailstorms, droughts and floods appears to be on the increase globally. …
Severe storms in the Eastern Cape are a more frequent and severe phenomenon than has been
reported in the past, and pose a significant risk for various geographic populations in terms of loss of
life, injury and impact on livelihoods. Historical under-reporting of storms has resulted in an under-
emphasis of the significant impact on marginalised and highly vulnerable rural populations.”
This provides a brief overview of the challenges faced by municipalities, including the NMBM, in
the Eastern Cape.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 135
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
The research conducted by Pale (2006) focused on Severe Convective Storm Risk in the Eastern
Cape Province of South Africa. Extracts from the findings of the research included:
• The number of reported storm events in the province has increased since 1981; most
noticeably from 1992. This is most likely as a result of improved reporting of storms,
particularly in the rural areas of the former Ciskei and Transkei self-governing territories.
Historical under-reporting of storms in these eastern areas prior to 1992 has resulted in a
skewed distribution pattern for the time series.
• The number of reported storms of greater impact (TS3-TS5 category storms) has increased
markedly since 1981.
• The geographic distribution of storms is concentrated in the rural eastern and northeastern
parts of the province.
• A higher frequency of reported storms is found in the eastern areas since 1992.
• Storm impacts (loss of life and injury, loss of livelihood and damage to infrastructure) are
significantly more severe in the rural eastern areas of the province.
• Lightning accounts for a disproportionately high loss of life and injury in the extreme north-
eastern parts. This is true despite the fact that lightning events are most likely to be
significantly under-reported.
• Hailstorms are the most frequently reported hazard and account for significant economic
losses to commercial farmers in the central and western parts of the province, in particular.
Even though the study focused on the entire Eastern Cape, the results of the study provide an
indication on the type of severe storm hazards experienced in the Eastern Cape, and the possible
impact of these hazards on the NMBM. The findings of Pale (2006) included a risk map related to
Severe Storms in the Eastern Cape (See Figure 7-28). According to this map, the NMBM is
classified as having a very high storm risk.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 136
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Source: Pyle, 2006.
Figure 7-28: Patterns of Risk to Severe Storms in t he Eastern Cape
The NMBM (s.a.) also recognises the risk associated with hydro-meteorological hazards in the
NMBM area, and identified the following potential impacts these hazard events can have on medical
and health operations in the NMBM:
• These events can cause physical damage to facilities including medical, communications and
emergency services sites;
• Events can disrupt utilities impair land transportation, and grounding or air transportation;
• Severe hydro-meteorological events can also create hazardous conditions for field
responders as well as cause hazardous material releases and fires; and
• Severe hydro-meteorological events can increase the risk of structural collapse.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 137
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Representatives from the NMBM identified hydro-meteorological hazards as a concern in the
NMBM. Information received from stakeholders indicated that:
• Lightning, severe storms and wind are all considered a Class 1 hazard (regular events, ordinary, day-to-day activities/incidents) affecting all the wards within the NMBM;
• Representatives indicated that the primary impact of the hazard events causes destruction of houses and infrastructure, falling of trees and safety concerns with regard to electricity.
• The main causes of these hazards were identified as change of weather patterns, while all representatives were under the impression that the hazardous events are increasing.
• One of the main challenges in reducing risks associated with hydro-meteorological hazards relates to “corruption in housing delivery”.
• The average priority to implement risk reduction and hazard mitigation measures were rated as 1.5, representing a Very Urgent to Medium Urgency Level.
Below is the severe storm hazard map for the NMBM.
Figure 7-29: Severe Storms hazard
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 138
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Pyle (2006) pointed to a need for strengthening institutional capacities in a number of spheres to
prevent and mitigate the impact of storms in the Eastern Cape. Some of these aspects might also be
of value for the NMBM, and included:
• Strengthening institutional capabilities in the more remote rural parts of the province to
provide effective prevention and mitigation in high risk areas. This is also applicable to
more remote parts in the NMBM, and will be discussed in more detail under Section 9.3.
• Improving communication of early warnings of rapid-onset severe storms to high risk
remote rural areas. This can be achieved by installing more public telephones in remote
areas, using local radio stations to disseminate warnings and by having a better organised
system of key contacts, such as community liaison officers, who would be able to
disseminate warnings more effectively to local communities. Given the quick onset of severe
storms, timeous warning is a critical factor in mitigating their impact on communities.
• Educating communities in the rural areas about severe storm hazards and precautions to be
taken in the event of severe storms. Suggested examples of education initiatives include
making use of teachers and schools (as part of the curriculum), distributing information
brochures at clinics, community centres and shops, education “roadshows” by disaster
management practitioners, etc.
• Improving the recording and tracking of severe storm events by disaster management
authorities. Although reporting of events has improved, there is still no systematic method
of recording and keeping an inventory/database of storms and related impacts at an
institutional level. It is suggested that this be broadened to include all severe weather
impacts, not only severe storms. Such a crucial task needs to be centralised at the provincial
disaster management centre in Bisho. At a national level, the National Disaster
Management Centre in Pretoria needs to assume the responsibility of maintaining a
national register of severe weather events, as stipulated in the Disaster Management Act
(2002). To the researcher’s knowledge, this key responsibility has not been assumed yet in
any systematic way at provincial or national level.
• Implementing medium to long-term developmental programmes by the state and provincial
government aimed at decreasing the vulnerability of marginalized populations, particularly
in the eastern parts of the province. This study has clearly shown the very high levels of
vulnerability to storm impacts in the impoverished rural areas of the province.
Developmental programmes need to be expedited in order to build resilience and to raise
the general standard of living of poor rural communities. This should include, inter alia:
o Accelerating programmes to build more robust houses that can withstand the impact
of severe storms.
o Improving health services, in particular the number of clinics and hospitals to deal
with injuries resulting from severe storms.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 139
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
o Upgrading the condition of secondary gravel roads to facilitate better access to
communities by emergency services in the event of storms.
o Improving the general level of education of rural communities, including adult
education initiatives.
o Creation of sustainable work opportunities to raise the income level of rural
communities. It is recognised that this is an exceptionally difficult objective to
achieve, even in the long term, given the historical impoverishment of the former
Transkei and Ciskei areas. Nonetheless, the researcher is of the opinion that poverty
reduction is the single most important long-term strategy in building resilience and
capacity in communities to withstand the impact of storms.
Most of the above comments can equally apply, not only for hydro-meteorological hazards, but for a
range of other hazards in other parts of the country. Additional mitigation and risk reduction
measures will be discussed under Section12.
7.10.3 Desertification
Desertification is discussed as a hazard contributing to Environmental Degradation in Section 7.3 of
this report.
7.10.4 Extreme Temperatures
Also refer to the Status Quo Assessment (Section 6.2) for more information regarding extreme
temperatures in the NMBM.
Extreme temperatures, including an extreme increase or decrease in temperature can cause severe
disruption to communities. Extreme temperature hazards not only impact on the health and well-
being of humans, especially vulnerable groups, but also cause damage to infrastructure (ICSU,
2007).
As shown Figure 7-30, studies on climate change reveal that Africa, like the rest of the world,
became warmer during the past century, and temperatures are expected to continue rising in the
future. Extreme events such as heat waves are predicted to be among the hazards that will be
associated with climate change (Díaz et al., 2004 in ICSU, 2007).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 140
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
IPCC (2001) in ICSU (2007)
Figure 7-30: Global Mean Temperature Anomaly (1995 – 2004)
Climate change studies focusing on heat wave trends in Africa are lacking. However, indications for
other parts of the world such as North America and Europe are that global warming will lead to
more intense, frequent, and longer lasting heat waves during the 21st century (Meehl & Tebaldi,
2004 in ICSU, 2007). The problem of hazards such as heat waves in Africa will be exacerbated by
changes in lifestyle linked to urbanization and general lack of preparedness for such events (ICSU,
2007).
During consultations with representatives in the NMBM, extreme temperature hazard events were
identified as a concern in the NMBM. Information collected from representatives indicated that:
• Extreme temperature hazards are considered a Class 1 hazard (regular events, ordinary, day-
to-day activities/incidents) affecting all the wards within the NMBM;
• Extremely high temperatures were identified as a concern in Uitenhage and Despatch, while
extreme cold temperatures were identified as a concern in all the wards.
• Representatives indicated that hazards associated with extreme temperatures are not
addressed in the IDP, and also rated the importance of managing risk associated with
extreme temperatures as 2.5 (medium urgency).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 141
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
The NMBM (s.a.) identified potential impacts of extreme temperature events (environmental
emergencies) on medical/health operations in the NMBM. These include:
• Utilities may be unable to cope with the increased demand (electricity);
• Extreme temperatures may create hazardous working conditions for field responders;
• The demand for service by medically fragile individuals may overwhelm response resources
and available inpatient services;
• Extreme temperature events may be sustained for many days or weeks.
7.11 Hazardous Material (Spill / Release / Fire / E xplosion)
Hazardous material, including hazardous waste, is a major concern for authorities all over South
Africa, including the NMBM. Due to the large amount of industries in the NMBM, hazardous
material can be considered as one of the top risks in the NMBM.
For the purpose of this assessment, hazardous material will be considered in the context of both the
spillage or release as well as fires or explosion of hazardous material. These events should also be
considered not only at the site or facility where the hazardous materials are manufactured, stored or
utilized, but also during transportation to, and from the facilities.
A substance may be considered hazardous if it is flammable, explosive, toxic, corrosive, radioactive
and cryogenic, or readily decomposes to give off oxygen at elevated temperatures. There are
thousands of substances that possess one or more of these qualities and can therefore be considered
as hazardous. Multiple hazards can be associated with many substances and the intermixing of
chemicals can further complicate the behaviour and hazardousness of a substance (Irvin and Strong,
1997).
Compressed gases are especially hazardous as they often involve multiple hazards, such as poisons,
oxidizers, cryogenics and the hazard of the pressure in the storage container itself. If the container
fails it could be turned into a projectile or an explosive device. Flammable liquids are slightly less
hazardous than gases, but are the cause of more incidents as they are more abundant. Commonly
encountered flammable liquids include: petrol, oil, diesel, paraffin, benzene, alcohols, pesticides and
jet fuel (Burke, 2003).
Industrial activities all over the world generate large volumes of hazardous waste and by-products
that need to be stored, transported or disposed of safely (Johnson, 1999). As there are quite a
number of industries in the NMBM and the fact that hazardous material was frequently mentioned as
a concern during consultations with local representatives, it became clear that hazardous materials
poses a serious threat to the environment and community of the NMBM.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 142
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
During consultation sessions, representatives from the NMBM identified hazardous material as a
major hazard in the NMBM. Information collected from representatives indicated that:
• Hazardous material incidents (related to fires and explosions) were classified as Class 2
events (Rare Events, out of ordinary, but still manageable);
• Representatives indicated that HazMat events, particularly related to fires and explosions on
ships, are a specific concern. It was indicated that partial early warning does exist for these
types of events.
• The priority to reduce the risk of these events was rated as 1 (Urgent Priority)
• A hazmat event related to the spillage of oil at Coega was identified by representatives. This
event was rated as a Class 2 events (Rare Events, out of ordinary, but still manageable).
• It was further indicated that possible secondary effects related to this hazard included loss of
biodiversity, but that an early warning system as well as suitable plans are in place to
manage this type of incident. The priority to deal with this type of risk was classified as 1
(Very urgent).
• The spillage of hazardous material on roads throughout the metro was also identified as a
Class 2 event (Rare Events, out of ordinary, but still manageable) by representatives. The
main cause of this type of spillage was identified as road accidents involving hazardous
materials.
• A Class 1 hazardous event (regular event, ordinary, day-to-day activities/incidents) was
identified with regard to the industrial spillage of toxic materials in Ward 5, 7 and 16. The
cause of these events was identified as the “release of chemicals by industry”. The main
challenge associated with this event was identified as a “lack of proper planning”. The
priority to deal with this hazard was rated as 2.5 (Medium urgency).
Statistics collected from the NMBM Fire Services (NMBM, 2010), provided an overview of the
hazardous material incidents and industrial accidents the Fire Services generally respond to. This
information is shown below:
Table 7-13: Hazardous Material and Industrial Accid ent Events in the NMBM.
Event Description Probability
(Over a 1 Year Period)
Frequency of Events
(Rounded) Comments
Hazardous
Material
Gas Leaks 100% 1 Event per 33.1 days Based only
on Fire
Services
Statistics
Major Spillages 100% 1 Event per 141.6 days
Minor Spillages 100% 1 Event per 93 days
Out of Area 11% 1 Event per 3,257 days
Accident Industrial 17% 1 Event per 2,171 days
Based on: NMBM, 2010
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 143
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
The NMBM (s.a.) identified potential impacts of hazardous material events (fixed and in
transportation) on medical/health operations in the NMBM. These include:
• Hazardous material incidents may require evacuation of large areas and closure of major
transportation routes;
• Safe access by responders may be severely limited;
• The behavior of unknown and mixed commodities may be highly unpredictable;
• Changes in the weather may require major changes in the response;
• High incidence of “worried well” and psychosomatic presentations for care;
• Events may be sustained for a day or more.
The GIS mapping of hazardous material hazards was done by identifying main transportation routes,
facilities and comments received from stakeholders. The result of the hazard mapping is shown
below:
Figure 7-31: Hazardous Material hazard
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 144
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
7.12 Infestations
Infestation hazards, including plant infestation (intruder plants), animal infestation and over
population and algal bloom are often not considered as a traditional disaster risk, but can still cause
extensive environmental damage over a long period of time. These hazards are discussed in more
detail below.
7.12.1 Plant Infestations (Intruder Plants)
An ‘alien’ species is one that has been introduced by humans, deliberately or accidentally, into an
area in which it did not previously occur. In today’s globalized world, species often spread
effortlessly among countries and continents. While not all alien species thrive in their new
environments, some do, becoming ‘invasive’ by spreading at the expense of indigenous species and
causing significant changes to habitats and ecosystem functioning.
One of the main reasons why alien species flourish is that “they are no longer controlled by their
natural predators and pathogens (diseases) with which they have co-evolved in their natural range”.
Correspondingly, indigenous species are at a competitive disadvantage when they encounter such
alien species (having had no evolutionary history of them) and are easily out-competed. Invasive
alien species can occur on land, in the ocean, or in freshwater systems, and can be drawn from any
group of organisms.
Invasive alien plants have invaded over 10 million hectares (ha) of South Africa. Over 750 tree
species and 8 000 herbaceous species have been introduced, with some 1 000 introduced species
now naturalized (that is, neither indigenous nor invasive) and 200 considered invasive.
Of those considered invasive, 117 are categorized as ‘major invaders’, and 84 are considered
‘emerging invaders’. ‘Major invaders’ are those species that are well established, and that already
have a substantial impact on natural and semi-natural ecosystems. ‘Emerging invaders’ currently
have less influence, but have attributes and potentially suitable habitat that could result in increased
range and consequences in the next few decades. Plants constitute most of the invasive species in
South Africa, making up 63% of the 319 species listed as harmful, and they threaten 55% of the Red
Data-listed plants in the country. According to the Working for Water Programme, the impacts of
invasive alien plant infestations are expected to double within 15 years if left uncontrolled.
Figure 7-32 and Figure 7-33 provides an overview of alien invasive plants in South Africa.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 145
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Source: National Spatial Biodiversity Assessment 2004
Figure 7-32: Percentage cover by alien invasive pla nts per quaternary catchment
Source: National Spatial Biodiversity Assessment 2004
Figure 7-33: Potential Distribution of Alien Invasi ve Plant Species
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 146
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
The results of the GIS based hazard mapping related to Plant infestation hazards are shown below.
Figure 7-34: Plant Infestation Hazard
7.12.2 Other Infestation Hazards
No specific information with regard to other infestation hazards such as Animal infestation (or over
population), Insect Infestation or Algal blooms were received.
7.13 Infrastructure Failure / Service Delivery Fail ure
Infrastructure and service delivery failure hazards are related to the failure of infrastructure systems
and processes such as electricity provision, water provision, sanitation systems, information
technology and communication systems, and transportation infrastructure. Due to the fact that the
NMBM is a fast developing municipality and economic hub of the wider region, the failure of
existing services and infrastructure can cause disruption to communities and the regional economy in
general.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 147
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
This failure can be caused by inadequate design, inadequate future planning, and a lack of proper
maintenance or uncontrollable phenomena such as flooding or fires. The failure of services can lead
to an increased risk of disaster, e.g. disruption of water can lead to community members drinking
polluted water, which can lead to an outbreak of disease. However, an unrelated disaster event can
also disrupt service delivery, e.g. flooding can damage communication systems or roads, which can
disrupt disaster response and recovery efforts.
The issue of infrastructure failure is addressed by two identified priorities in the NMBM IDP (2009).
These two priorities include:
• Provision and expedition of basic service delivery; and
• Development, provision and maintenance of infrastructure.
It is therefore important that infrastructure is designed, constructed and maintained in order to ensure
that disruption of the services is avoided as far as possible. The specific types of infrastructure and
service delivery failure hazards are briefly discussed below.
7.13.1 Electrical
Disruption of electricity supply is a common problem in South Africa due to cable theft,
maintenance problems and supply issues associated with ESKOM. Except for the disruption of
communities’ lives that electrical failure brings, regular problems with electricity supply can also
affect industry, tourism and the attractiveness of the municipality to foreign investment.
During consultations with representatives from the NMBM, electrical infrastructure and service
delivery failure was identified as a concern. Information received from representatives indicated
that:
• Generally three different types of electricity infrastructure / service delivery failure hazards
were identified.
• The first event was classified as a Class 1 hazard (regular events, ordinary, day-to-day
activities/incidents), and was related to a general lack of electricity in all the wards of the
NMBM. The main reason for this failure was identified as a lack of finances and a lack of
human resources. Additional comments recorded included “Old substation, lack of
maintenance, stealing of electricity cables and lack of human resources”. Secondary
hazards being caused or worsened by this hazard was identified as crime.
• The second hazard incident was also classified as a Class 1 hazard (regular events, ordinary,
day-to-day activities/incidents), and was related to the destruction of electricity lines by
weather conditions. The main cause of this hazard was identified as being severe weather,
and specific problem areas were identified as all the wards, but especially in rural areas and
Uitenhage.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 148
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
• The third event was classified as a Class 2 hazard (Rare events, out of ordinary, but still
manageable). This event related to the theft of underground cables in particular the areas of
Ibhayi, Kwadweni, and Newbrighton. The main cause of this event was identified as
criminal activity, while the main challenge in managing or reducing this event was identified
as a lack of funding.
• All three of these hazards were identified as a priority 1 concern (Very urgent).
The NMBM (s.a.) identified potential impacts of power failures on medical/health operations in the
NMBM. These include:
• Electrical failure may have an impact on essential facilities;
• Electrical failure can also disrupt emergency communications, traffic controls and street
lighting,
• Failure of street lighting and traffic lights can creating hazardous traffic and working
conditions for responders;
• Electrical failure can also create high demands for service for the medically fragile, both in
residences and larger facilities
7.13.2 Information Technology
Information Technology failure is mostly related to the failure or lack of communication technology
such as telephone networks, as well as failure of information technology systems in government
departments. No specific information with regard to this hazard was received during the assessment.
7.13.3 Sanitation
Failure of sanitation systems can increase the risk of hazards such as epidemics, environmental
degradation and pollution. During stakeholder consultations, representatives from the NMBM
identified concerns related to the failure of sanitation infrastructure, as well as problems related to
service delivery. Information received from representatives indicated that:
• Sanitation Service Delivery failure and is considered a Class 1 hazard (regular events,
ordinary, day-to-day activities/incidents) affecting mainly Soweto and Zwide Townships;
• Representatives described the problems in these areas as “Bucket System, small pipes used
for sewerage, and lack of infrastructure”.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 149
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
• The main challenges associated with reducing the risk caused by sanitation service delivery
and sanitation infrastructure failure were identified as a lack of service delivery as well as a
lack of funding. Representatives indicated that the IDP does address problems associated
with sanitation service delivery and sanitation infrastructure failure.
• The priority to address sanitation service delivery and sanitation infrastructure failure was
identified as 1 (very urgent).
7.13.4 Transport
Transportation infrastructure failure (and service delivery failure) relates to the failure of
infrastructure related to roads, rail, and water transportation. During stakeholder consultations,
representatives from the NMBM identified concerns related to the failure of sanitation infrastructure,
as well as problems related to service delivery. Information received from representatives indicated
that:
• Transportation Infrastructure failure was identified as a Class 2 hazard (rare events, out of
ordinary, but still manageable) affecting areas where roads crosses rivers;
• According to representatives the main problem associated with these crossings are
“destruction of roads”. This was identified as a Priority 1 concern (very urgent).
7.13.5 Gas
No information with regard to the failure of gas related infrastructure was received, however, this is
expected to be of concern especially in industrial/harbour areas.
7.13.6 Water
Safe clean water is one of the most basic needs of a community and disruption or lack of such a
service can create multiple secondary hazards such as diseases, reduction in community health, and
pollution. During stakeholder consultations, representatives from the NMBM identified concerns
related to the failure of water infrastructure, as well as problems related to water service delivery.
Information received from representatives indicated that:
• Water Infrastructure/Service Delivery Failure was perceived as a Class 1 hazard (regular
events, ordinary, day-to-day activities/incidents) affecting all the wards within the NMBM;
• The main concern was related to water shortages. It should be kept in mind that, at the time
of this assessment, it was indicated that the NMBM is experiencing a severe drought, and
this identified hazard might be related to the drought hazard event.
• Representatives also commented that “lack of maintenance” is a concern in the municipality
and that “ground water is available but municipality is reluctant to explore the
opportunity”.
• According to representatives, Water Infrastructure and Service Delivery Failure is a Priority
1 hazard (very urgent).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 150
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
The Infrastructure and Service Delivery failure hazard for the NMBM are shown below:
Figure 7-35: Infrastructure Failure Hazard
7.14 Major Event Hazards
Major event hazards can usually be associated with cultural, religious, political, recreational,
commercial or sporting events where large numbers of people gather at a venue or groups of venues.
Hazards associated with these events include trampling and crushing injuries due to inadequate
crown management, venue design or structural failure.
In the NMBM, there are a number of facilities that can attract large crowds of people. They include
sport fields, churches and mosques, community halls, shopping centres, bus and taxi terminus, the
airport and harbour. Some large events hosted within the NMBM area as well as even smaller
events and gathering such as religious attendance could be identified as potential major event
hazards.
During stakeholder consultations, representatives from the NMBM did not identify specific concerns
or problems associated with major event hazards in the NMBM. However, with the upcoming FIFA
2010 Soccer World Cup to be hosted in the NMBM, problems associated with major events will
need to be considered.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 151
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
For the purpose of mapping major event hazards in the NMBM, the land-use/land-cover data of the
NMBM was used, and facilities or areas that are considered as possible venues for major events
were identified. The result of the hazard mapping is shown below:
Figure 7-36: Major Events Hazard
7.15 Pollution
The combination of an area with natural beauty and tourist attractions like the NMBM coupled with
major industries and a harbour where fossil fuels are transported makes the Municipality both very
vulnerable to pollution but also highly hazardous, creating a high risk scenario for land and water
pollution.
Information retrieved from the NMBM Fire Services with regards to spillage incidents are shown
below. Not all of these events caused a major pollution incident, but it provides an overview of the
events the Fire Services are regularly involved in with regards to spillage incidents.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 152
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Table 7-14: Spillage Events in the NMBM.
Event Description Probability
(Over a 1 Year Period)
Frequency of Events
(Rounded) Comments
Spillage Incidents
Miscellaneous 100% 1 Event per 51.7 days Based only
on Fire
Services
Statistics
Other Products 100% 1 Event per 23.4 days
Petrol/Oil from
MVAs, etc 100% 1 Event per 8.3 days
Total 100% 1 Event per 5.5 days
7.15.1 Air Pollution
Due to the large number of industries and industrial facilities in the NMBM, air pollution can be
considered a problem in the NMBM. According to the NMBM (2010), the following are activities
that create air pollution in the NMBM:
• Fuel combustion from stationary sources – combustion of coal or oil for steam generation
and industrial energy requirements as well as domestic coal and paraffin combustion for
space heating.
• Fuel combustion in mobile sources – cars, passenger vehicles and diesel fuel trucks and
buses.
• Industrial and chemical processes – pollutants as alkali metals and fluorides from the ferro-
alloy industries and organic vapours from chemical production.
• Solid waste disposal – incineration of industrial, residential and hospital wastes.
• Land surface disturbances – construction activities, waste dumps, agricultural activities and
veld fires.
• Illegal burning of garden refuse and waste material.
• Illegal burning of electrical cables and tyres – to retrieve wire for resale.
During stakeholder consultations, representatives from the NMBM identified concerns related to the
air pollution hazards in the NMBM. Information received from representatives indicated that:
• Air pollution incidents were perceived as a Class 1 hazard (regular events, ordinary, day-to-
day activities/incidents) affecting especially Ward 11 and Motherwell.
• The main cause of the air pollution events were identified as the factories in the areas
causing pollution, and representatives also perceived the air pollution events as increasing.
• The challenges associated with dealing with air pollution included a lack of compliance by
foreign factories, and representatives indicated that air pollution causes health complications
for the communities.
• Representatives indicated that the IDP does not adequately address the problems associated
with air pollution. Representatives rated the priority to deal with this type of air pollution
hazard as 2.5 (Medium Urgency).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 153
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
7.15.2 Land Pollution
Although household waste and waste disposal sites are potential sources of land pollution, pollution
from industry, health facilities, commerce and mining generally pose a much greater threat. The
NMBM IDP (2009) identifies aspects associated with land pollution hazards as one of the IDP
priorities, namely “Elimination of illegal dumping”. No specific information was received from
stakeholders with regard to land pollution hazards in the NMBM.
7.15.3 Water Pollution (Fresh and Sea)
The provision of potable clean water to communities can significantly reduce their risk related to
specific hazards such as human disease hazards. However, as discussed in this report, the NMBM
often experiences problems with regards to water shortages. This only highlights the fact of how
precious water resources are in the NMBM, and the severe impact water pollution can have on the
NMBM. Water pollution caused by spillages from ships can also have a severe impact on the
natural environment of the NMBM. A third concern relates to the treatment of sewerage. The
inadequate management or treatment of sewerage can also have a severe impact on the receiving
water bodies. Mapped pollution hazards in the NMBM are shown below:
Figure 7-37: Air, Land and Water pollution Hazard
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 154
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
7.16 Structural Failure
For the purpose of this study, structural failure hazards were defined as the failure of structures, such
as bridges, buildings or dams due to various causes including inadequate maintenance, inadequate
design, earthquakes, severe weather conditions, etc. The failure of small structures, such as single
houses or small bridges does not usually constitute a disaster risk. However, the failure of larger
structures such as dams, multi-lane bridges and multi-storey buildings may constitute a disaster
event.
No information with regard to structural failure hazards was received from representatives from the
NMBM. For the purpose of mapping the hazard, infrastructure such as dam walls, bridges, stadiums
and other relevant infrastructure were mapped. The result of the hazard mapping is shown below:
Figure 7-38: Structural Failure Hazard
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 155
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
7.17 Oceanographic
For the purpose of this assessment, oceanographic hazards generally related to changes in the sea
level. These include hazard events such as Tsunamis, sea level rise due to climate change and storm
surge.
7.17.1 Tsunami
According to ICSU (2007) a tsunami, also known as a seismic sea wave, is a series of enormous
waves created by an underwater disturbance such as an earthquake, landslide, volcanic eruption, or
meteorite collision. A tsunami can move at hundreds of kilometers per hour in the open ocean and
smash onto landmasses with waves as high as 30 meters or more. All tsunamis are potentially
dangerous, even though they may not damage every shore they hit. They can strike anywhere along
the African coastline (ICSU, 2007).
Beyond the heavy toll on human lives, tsunamis can have an enormous environmental impact that
can affect a region for years after an event. Severe damage can be inflicted on ecosystems such as
coral reefs, forests, coastal wetlands, vegetation, sand dunes and rock formations, biodiversity, and
groundwater. The destruction can further be exacerbated by the spread of solid and liquid waste and
industrial chemicals, water pollution, and the destruction of sewage collection and treatment
systems. Soil and freshwater contamination with infiltrated salt water and salt layer deposits on
arable land can also disrupt future activities (ICSU, 2007).
No specific information was received from representatives from the NMBM with regards to
Tsunami hazards related to the NMBM area. It is expected that the probability of a tsunami
occurring could be very low, but as this is an event with an extreme severe impact, the disaster risk
that a Tsunami pose should not be ignored.
In order to map the hazards related to a Tsunami, the received contour data of the NMBM was used
to create an elevation grid of the Municipality. To indicate the hazard levels of Tsunami all areas
below 10 meter in elevation was regarded as high hazard, between 10 and 20 meter elevation
medium hazard and between 20 and 30 meter as low hazard areas. The results of the hazard
mapping are shown below:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 156
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Figure 7-39: Tsunami Hazard for the NMBM
7.17.2 Sea Level Rise (Climate Change)
It is believed that that global climate change can lead to a rise in sea levels. There is, however,
uncertainty with regards to the extent and severity of the change in sea level.
During stakeholder consultations, representatives from the NMBM identified concerns related to the
sea level rise hazards (caused by climate change) in the NMBM. Information received from
representatives indicated that:
• Sea level rise is considered a Class 2 hazard (Rare Events, out of ordinary, but still
manageable) affecting the coastal areas of the NMBM; and
• A secondary hazards associated with sea level rise was identified as flooding. The priority
to deal with this sea level rise hazards (due to climate change) was perceived by the
representatives as 2.5 (medium urgency).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 157
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
In general, the most significant impacts of sea level rise are expected where problems are already
experienced at present along the Nelson Mandela Bay coast (e.g. Pollok Beach and North End
Beach). In most cases these are the areas where developments have encroached too close to the
highwater line, or at too low an elevation above mean sea level.
Potential negative impacts of sea level rise include damage to and loss of property, changes in ocean
current direction and velocity, reductions in ecosystem functioning, and loss of important tourist
beaches, amongst others (Midgley el al, 2005 in SRK, 2008).
In light of these predicted impacts, it would be prudent to restrict development close to the existing
shoreline, particularly near sandy beaches. Therefore, development setback lines need to be
determined and strictly adhered to.
7.17.3 Storm Surge
Storm surge can be defined as a rise in the coastal water level that could be caused by strong winds
associated with tropical storms and cyclones as well as a low pressure system in the region. A storm
surge can significantly raise the mean water level if combined with existing high tides. This rise in
water level can cause severe flooding in coastal areas, particularly along shallow slopes along the
shoreline.
To identify areas at risk of a storm surge, a lower elevation was used than for a tsunami, but the
probability of a storm surge is much greater than a tsunami, hence the hazard levels are considered to
be high for areas with an elevation below 5m, medium from 5 to 10 meters and low for 10 to 15
meters above sea level.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 158
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Figure 7-40: Storm Surge Hazard in the NMBM
7.18 Climate Change
The IPCC (2007) definition of climate change refers to any identifiable change in climate over time
that is attributed to natural variability or human activity. The United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) definition only refers to climate change that is directly
or indirectly attributed to human activity. The causes of climate change are both natural and human-
induced. While the uncertainty in some of the climate change data must be acknowledged, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) states that: “Most of (>50%) the observed
increased on globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (conf. >90%)
due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations and that warming is
unequivocal.”
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 159
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
The following points summarize South Africa’s contribution to climate change:
• Due to the dependence on coal for energy, South Africa is the world’s 11th largest emitter of
greenhouse gases;
• Its emissions grew 28% between 1990 and 2000 to 446 Mt of carbon dioxide equivalent;
• South Africa emits as much per person (9.8 tonnes CO2-eq per year) as many developed
countries such as the United Kingdom; and
• The economy is carbon inefficient and intense, equivalent to that of China and well above
the world average as well as the average for OECD countries.
Global circulation models present a mixed picture of the potential climate changes in Africa.
However, continental models project an overall annual warming of about 3.5 to 4 degrees and a
drying of about 15% in southern Africa.
Source: IPCC (2007) – Figure 11.2
Figure 7-41: Projected temperature and precipitatio n changes for Africa
Regional downscaled models have been developed that offer a higher degree of confidence in their
predictions (Hewitson and Crane, 2006). The results of the models are shown in Figure 7-42 below.
The top and bottom rows represent the results of two different models and each of the four figures in
each row represents different climate change scenarios.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 160
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
The results of regional downscaled models suggest the following climate changes:
• A net drying on the western two-thirds of the subcontinent, south of about 10 degrees South.
• There will be increased summer rainfall in the convective region of the central and eastern
plateau and the Drakensberg Mountains.
• The Western Cape is predicted to face a shorter rainfall season with a slight decrease in
wintertime frontal rainfall and the eastern interior portions of the province likely to
experience increased late summer rainfall.
• Ambient air temperature is predicted to increase across the country between 1 and 4 degrees
Celsius, with the interior experiencing the greatest increases and the coastal zones
experiencing less of an increase.
Source: Hewitson and Crane (2006)
Figure 7-42: Regional scale projected precipitation change
The IPCC (2007) report also states that confidence has increased since the third assessment report
that some weather events and extremes will become more frequent, more widespread and more
intense during the 21st century. There are however large uncertainties associated with extremes due
to incomplete global data sets and model uncertainties (IPCC, 2007).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 161
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
An average sea level rise of 1.7 ± 0.5 mm.yr-1was observed during the 20th century (IPCC, 2007),
with a slightly higher rate observed between 1961 and 2003. Observations between 1993 and 2003
showed a rise of 3.1 ± 0.7 mm.yr-1. These sea level increases are attributed to a combination of
thermal expansion due to ocean temperature rise and freshwater contributions due to melting of ice
caps, ice shelves and glaciers. Climate model projections indicate that sea level can be expected to
rise by between 0.2 to 0.6 m by 2100. Figure 7-43 shows the observed and projected increases in
sea level.
Figure 7-43: Observed and projected (SRES A1B scena rio) sea level rise
Source: IPCC, Bindoff et al., 2007
Rahmstorf et al. (2007) suggest that based on observations over the last 20 years, the IPCC
projections may have underestimated the changes that will take place and the rate at which they take
place in response to increasing temperature. Below is a generic illustration of the lag effect
predicted to occur after CO2 emissions have been reduced and stabilized. The lag effects on sea
level rise due to the thermal inertia of the oceans and ice sheets and their long time scales for
adjustment.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 162
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Source: IPCC, 2001
Figure 7-44: Illustration of temperature rise and s ea level rise continuing long after reduction of CO2 emissions to a neutral level
IPCC (2007) states that it is likely (66 - 90% probability) that future tropical cyclones will become
more intense and have larger peak wind speed and heavier precipitation. Russouw and Theron
(2009) identify the need for further studies on the frequency, intensity and persistence of storms
along the South African coastline and a review of the occurrence of cyclones along the East coast.
Associated with this, trends in wave energy flux as well as wave height must be examined. There is
considerable uncertainty associated with changes in wave action. Waves could be affected in a
number of ways according to PIANC (2008). There could be changes to wave height, frequency and
pathways of high wave spells and changes in wave action due to changes in the frequency and
duration of storms.
Although coastal regions are less likely to experience large increases in temperature owing to the
buffering capacity of the ocean, it is virtually certain (IPCC, 2007a) that there will be fewer cold
days and nights and more frequent hot days and nights. Heat weaves will become more frequent and
longer lasting in a warming climate (Soloman et al. 2007). Increased temperatures coupled with
more frequent and intense extreme events such as storms are likely to have an impact on human
health.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 163
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Impacts predicted (High confidence (>80%)) (IPCC, 2007) include:
• Increases in malnutrition and associated disorders;
• Increased deaths due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts;
• Increased occurrence of diarrhoeal disease; and
• Altered distribution of infectious disease vectors.
Figure 7-45 shows the projected suitable climatic areas for malaria (a) and the historical malaria risk
areas (b). This illustrates the impact of climate change on disease vectors. The implications of
climate change on the health sector in the NMBM are that it falls into an area that will experience an
improved climatic condition for malaria, which means that the risk of malaria will increase. Also,
there is likely to be an increased frequency and intensity of heat waves and floods. It will be of
critical importance to anticipate these health impacts and develop an adaptive strategy that includes
education, health care, public health initiatives, infrastructure and economic development.
Source: Craig and Sharp, 2000
Figure 7-45: (a) Results of climatic model where 0= unsuitable climate for malarial vectors and 1=suitable climate and (b) Historical m alaria risk areas in South Africa and Namibia and annual malaria cases per district i n Botswana.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 164
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
GCM indicates that the frequency of heavy precipitation events is very likely (90 – 99% probability)
to increase, which will augment flood risk (IPCC, 2007). The implications of this are that there is an
increased probability of flooding. Increased run-off and associated flooding will have important
implications for those people living near the rivers in the area, in or near the floodplains. There is a
large amount of uncertainty associated with rainfall and hence runoff predictions at a regional scale.
Rising temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns and run-off will result in additional food
insecurities. Increased temperatures are virtually certain to decrease crop yields due to heat stress
and increased pest outbreaks (FAO, 2008). Increased frequency and intensity of rainfall events may
result in damage to crops, soil erosion and water logging of soils which will make it difficult to
cultivate the land.
In the FAO report (2008), the following impacts on food security are outlined:
• Availability of food due to a reduction in production, which is particularly pertinent in areas
such as uMhlathuze where much of the municipality is rural and self sufficient.
• Access to food can be worsened due to damages to infrastructure and loss of livelihoods.
• Stability of food supply which is influenced by food price fluctuations and a higher
dependency on imports
• Utilization of food can be directly affected by food safety hazards associated with pests and
animal diseases.
Uncertainties exist around degrees to which precipitation, runoff and wave action will change on the
Eastern Cape Coast. Finer scale mapping and modelling of precipitation, temperature and sea level
rise is required to be able to accurately predict the impacts on the NMBM in more detail.
Table 7-15 below presents a summary of the climate change impacts discussed above and possible
adaptation measures to mitigate the impacts.
Table 7-15: Summary of impacts and possible mitigat ion measures
Climate Change Factor Potential Impacts Adaptation and Mitigation Measures
Rising sea level
• Changes to water levels in harbours
• Decreased efficacy of breakwater infrastructure
• Increased erosion of sandy shores
• Revise quay and wharf levels including infrastructure
• Raising existing breakwater structures
• Monitor distances of infrastructure from shoreline, implement policy where necessary to increase distances
Increased extreme weather conditions e.g. storms, tropical cyclones
• Increased damage to infrastructure as a result of increased wave action
• Increased risk of flooding
• Increase maintenance of existing infrastructure
• Review adequacy of protective infrastructure
• Mapping of 1:200 year risk areas
Change in run-off and increased temperatures • Reduction in agricultural productivity
• Educate people about diversified livelihoods
• Investigate alternative crops
Increased temperatures
• Increased incidence of heat waves
• Increased risk of malaria and diarrhoeal disease
• Ensure adequate health services are available
• Use of localised DDT spraying to control mosquito populations
• Educate people about the symptoms and treatment of malaria, and heatstroke
• Promote the use of protective measures such as mosquito nets
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 165
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
7.19 Astrophysical Hazards
7.19.1 Space weather
Because of the limited impact of space weather on countries in Africa compared to other natural
hazards, little research in this area has been conducted in Africa. For the purpose of this assessment,
the discussion on space weather hazards, as provided by ICSU (2007), will be used:
“Adverse space weather associated with coronal mass ejections (CME) and solar flares is a natural
hazard that can affect technological systems such as satellite systems, radio communication, and
electrical power distribution systems in Africa. CMEs entering the Earth’s upper atmosphere cause
large currents (electrojets) in the ionosphere, which interact with and disturb the Earth’s magnetic
field. Low-frequency currents may be induced in power lines, causing severe damage to power
supply equipment and subsequent blackouts. Many other technologies associated with
infrastructure are vulnerable, including radio communication, satellite communications, satellite
systems, global positioning systems, and pipelines. Africa is one of only two continents that do not
yet have Regional Warning Centres (RWCs) for space weather. The Southern African Space
Weather and Ionospheric Information Service (SASW) at the Institute of Maritime Technology in
Cape Town provides the only known warning service in Africa.
The International Space Environment Service (ISES) provides space weather predictions. ISES is a
permanent service of the Federations of Astronomical and Geophysical Data Analysis Services
(FAGS) under the auspices of the International Union of Radio Science (IURS) in association with
the International Astronomical Union (IAU) and the International Union of Geodesy and
Geophysics (IUGG). The mission of the ISES is to encourage and facilitate near-real-time
international monitoring and prediction of the space environment by the rapid exchange of space
environment information to assist users to reduce the impact of space weather on activities of human
interest. Because of the limited impact of space weather, compared to other natural hazards, little
research in this area has been conducted in Africa. The Hermanus Magnetic Observatory, situated
100 km east of Cape Town, has been approached by ISES and by the South African Department of
Communications to join forces with SASW to become the RWC for space weather on the continent.“
(ICSU, 2007).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 166
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
7.19.2 Meteorite impacts
For the purpose of this assessment, meteorite hazards will be described in terms of the discussion
provided by ICSU (2007):
“The African continent carries the scars of 17 confirmed meteorite impacts, ranging in age from the
2 023-million-year-old Vredefort structure in South Africa, to the 10 000-year-old Aorounga
structure in Chad (Reimold & Gibson, 2005). The number of identified impact structures is low
compared to relatively well-explored regions such as Scandanavia, and it is thought that more
discoveries will very likely be made in the future. While there is no instance of a meteorite impact
disaster during recorded human history, the phenomenon deserves mention in this inventory, as truly
catastrophic losses could result should an impact occur in a densely populated region. For
example, a meteorite that is 50 m in diameter – similar to the one that, 220 000 years ago, created
the relatively modest Tswaing crater (diameter of 1.13 km) north of Pretoria – would have an
explosive force equivalent to 20 to 40 million tons of TNT. Anything in the immediate target area
would be instantly vapourized, and violent wind and ejecta would cause devastation over an area of
1 000 km2 or more.” (ICSU, 2007).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 167
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
8 Vulnerability Profile of the NMBM In the context of this study, vulnerability can be described as the degree to which an individual, a
household, a community, an area or a development may be adversely affected by the impact of a
hazard. Conditions of vulnerability and susceptibility to the impact of hazards are determined by
physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes.
It is also important to remember that vulnerability is dynamic, not static, as the vulnerability of
communities change due to improvements or degradation of social, environmental and economic
conditions, as well as interventions specifically aimed at reducing vulnerability, such as disaster
mitigating actions (Zschau and Küppers, 2003).
For the purpose of this study, the vulnerability of the area of the NMBM is discussed under three
sections. The first section examines general characteristics of the area based on quantitative and
qualitative data, and refers to some of the characteristics of the NMBM area in the context of the
“Progression of Vulnerability” as proposed by Wisner (2004). The second section relates the land
cover data of the NMBM, while the third section deals with different vulnerability indicators related
to different areas within the NMBM.
Figure 8-1: Distribution of Poverty across South Af rica showing the Ten Poorest Municipalities
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 168
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
8.1 Vulnerability Considerations in NMBM
In a developing country such as South Africa, poor people tend to be the most vulnerable to
environmental disturbance, because they have fewer resources to help them to cope with disaster.
They have low incomes, restricted choices regarding location and employment, are less able to
afford food or to save and accumulate assets, and are often powerless Both global and local
consequences of environmental damage impact upon poor people (DEAT, 2006).
Vulnerability is, however, not the same as poverty, and it is therefore important to distinguish
between ‘Vulnerability’ and ‘Poverty. Rising poverty certainly contributes to rising vulnerability,
but poor people may not necessarily be vulnerable if they live in relatively stable circumstances,
with good infrastructure, communications, and social support systems. Poverty in this context may
be a state of deprivation (lack of adequate access) to key resources needed for full participation in an
economic and social life. Wealthier people can also be vulnerable when they live in unstable and
uncertain environments, such as, for example, those who bear the extreme fire risk to thatched
cottages on the fynbos coast of the South-western Cape (DEAT, 2006).
Even though financial resources (or the lack thereof) do not necessarily determine level of
vulnerability, it is important to consider aspects of poverty in determining vulnerability. According
to the DEAT (2006), seven of the ten poorest municipalities in South Africa are located in the
Eastern Cape. The figure below provides an overview of poverty indicators in South Africa.
* The poverty gap measures the required annual income transfer to all poor households to
bring them out of poverty.
Source: DEAT 2006
Figure 8-2: Poverty Indicators by Province
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 169
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Based on the figure above, it is clear that poverty is considered a concern in the Eastern Cape
Province. Poverty also seems to be a concern in the NMBM. Poverty might not be considered a
problem to the same extent as in other parts of the Eastern Cape Province, but according to the IDP,
the situational analysis of Nelson Mandela Bay indicates a high level of unemployment and poverty
among residents. Poverty and vulnerability related aspects are also identified as priorities. These
priorities include:
• Provision of quality housing;
• Poverty eradication and job creation;
• Special sector development (youth, disabled and women);
• Responsive, people-centred and integrated institution; and
• Provision of community amenities and facilities.
Keeping the above mentioned aspects in mind, the specific vulnerability profile of the NMBM can
be influenced by various aspects. The National Disaster Management Framework defines
Vulnerability as “The degree to which an individual, a household, a community, an area or a
development may be adversely affected by the impact of a hazard. Conditions of vulnerability and
susceptibility to the impact of hazards are determined by physical, social, economic and
environmental factors or processes.” A lot of the aspects that can contribute to the vulnerability in
the NMBM were discussed as part of the Status Quo assessment in Section 6, however, key aspects
of the characteristics of the NMBM will be discussed below:
Physical vulnerability of communities can relate to the type of housing, available infrastructure and
the quality of infrastructure. According to StatsSA (2006), an informal dwelling is defined as a
“makeshift structure not approved by a local authority and not intended as a permanent dwelling.
Typically built of found materials (corrugated iron, cardboard, plastic, etc.). Contrasted with formal
dwelling and traditional dwelling.” Informal dwellings, or buildings constructed from low quality
material can be considered more susceptible to the effects of some hazards. The percentage of
formal and informal dwellings within an area can therefore be used as one indicator of the level of
vulnerability of an area. According to Figure 6-15 a relatively high percentage of dwellings within
the NMBM area (85.1%) are considered formal dwellings. Based on this, one can state that the
NMBM area is relatively less vulnerable than the areas surrounding the municipality.
Due to the import role water plays within communities, including the health of community members,
it can be stated that the inadequate quantity or quality of drinking water can increase the
vulnerability of communities to the effects of certain hazards. Because of this, access to water can
also be used as an indicator of relative vulnerability. According to the IDP (2009) 100% of
households in the NMBM have access to a basic level of water within a 200 m radius. Based on
this, it can be stated that the communities within the NMBM area are less vulnerable to hazards such
as waterborne diseases, than their neighboring communities. This assumption, however, does not
take the quality of the water into account, and it should be stated that polluted water can be a hazard,
and also increase the overall vulnerability of the community.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 170
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Adequate sanitation is critical to ensure that the appropriate public health conditions are maintained
in a community. Inadequate or unsuitable sanitation or disposal of waste can increase the risk of
disease, and can facilitate the spread of waterborne diseases such as cholera. The access of
community members to proper sanitation, including toilets, can therefore be used as an indicator of
relative vulnerability. It is estimated that nearly 88% of the households within the NMBM have
access to flush toilets. This figure is higher than the neighboring municipalities as well as the
national average of 57.8% (StatsSA 2009).
The type of energy available for cooking and lighting can also serve as an indicator of the relative
vulnerability of communities. In areas without electricity, community members need to make use of
alternative energy sources, such as paraffin, gas or wood. This can have a detrimental effect on the
health of community members, and also pose an increase in the fire hazard, especially in areas with
informal dwellings. According to the IDP (2009) altogether 97% of households in formally
demarcated municipal residential areas have access to a basic level of electricity. However, there are
challenges with regard to provision of electricity in informal settlements.
The social characteristics of a community can also have an impact on the vulnerability of the
community. Wisner (2004) identified a number of characteristics that can increase the vulnerability
of communities. These characteristics includes, amongst others:
• Limited access to power, structures and resources; • Lack of local institutions, training and skills; and • Lack of ethical standards in public life.
Economic characteristics influencing the vulnerability of communities can include aspects such as
the levels of unemployment, levels of income and the percentage of economically active individuals.
Current unemployment rate in the NBMB is estimated at approximately 35%, while 107 239 of the
total number of 289 000 households (37%) are classified as indigent (poor). This has a negative
impact on the vulnerability of the community.
Additional environmental characteristics that can influence the vulnerability of an area are
deforestation, rapid urbanization and a decline in soil productivity (Wisner 2004).
The following steps can be taken to decrease the vulnerability and reduce disaster risk by increasing
resilience in the uMhlathuze area (Wisner 2004):
• Increase the access of vulnerable groups to power structures and resources; • Challenge any ideology, political system or economic system where it causes or increases
vulnerability; • Development of local institutions, education, training and appropriate skill development
opportunities; • Develop and secure local investment and local markets; • Improve ethical standards in public life (including crime prevention, safety and security)
• Manage urbanisation; • Protect natural and forest environments; • Diversify rural income opportunities; and
• Strengthen livelihoods and increase low income levels.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 171
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
8.2 Vulnerability (Land Cover/Use Ratings)
Land use vulnerability is calculated in terms of the Social, Economic, Environmental and Structural
vulnerability of different land use types found in the Municipality. The land-use vulnerability data
layer was created as discussed in Section 5.5.2. The vulnerability map for the NMBM area based on
Land-use is shown below:
Figure 8-3: NMBM Land Use Vulnerability
8.3 Vulnerability (Socio-economic Profiles)
Socio economic vulnerability was calculated using the available data from the last official census as
received per sub place name. Although this data is dated and the percentage values are most
probably not accurate anymore, the figure could still be used as an average indicator of vulnerability
to provide a comparative vulnerability rating between areas in the NMBM.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 172
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
The vulnerability was calculates as discussed in Section 5.5.2. The results of Table 8-1 were also
mapped (Figure 8-4) to indicate vulnerable areas spatially. Based on this method the most
vulnerable communities include:
• Motherwell; • Tjoksville; • Kwazakhele • Kwa Langa • Kwazakhele 3 • Motherwell 1; • Port Elizabeth Airport Informal; • Despatch; and • Kwanobuhle 10.
Table 8-1: Socio Economic Vulnerability Indicator
Area Name
Average
Vulnerability
Factor Area Name
Average
Vulnerability
Factor Area Name
Average
Vulnerability
Factor
Motherwell 23.5 Sanctor 94.8 Summerstrand 99
Tjoksville 24.1 Kwanobuhle 8 95.2 Hunter's Retreat 99
Kwazakhele 24.6 Algoa Park 95.5 Framesby 99
Kwa Langa 24.8 Mandela Village 95.6 Sherwood 99
Kwazakhele 3 25.1 Kwanobuhle 2 95.6 Fairbridge Heights 99
Motherwell 1 25.6 Kwadwesi SP 95.6 Overbaakens 99
Port Elizabeth Airport Informal 26.6 Alexander Park Industrial 95.7 De Mist 99
Despatch 26.9 Motherwell 4 95.9 Cradock Place 99
Kwanobuhle 10 27.4 University of Port Elizabeth 95.9 St Georges Park 99
Medina 27.7 Windvogel 95.9 Kwanobuhle 4 99.1
Kwazakhele 1 31 Kwanobuhle 6 96.2 Weybridge Park 99.1
Walmer Location 38.5 Despatch SP 96.6 Taybank 99.1
Kwazakhele 2 39.1 Motherwell 9 96.7 South End 99.1
Masibulele 41.3 Steytler 96.8 Young Park SP 99.1
Tambo 42.4 Springdale 96.8 Bertwood Park 99.2
Kwadwesi 43.8 Kabega Park 96.8 Goldwater 99.2
Bethelsdorp 47.5 Colchester SP 96.9 Khaya Mnandi 99.2
Missionvale 48 Winterhoekpark 96.9 Kwamagxaki 99.2
New Kwadwesi 48 Parkside 97 Bothasrus 99.3
Kabah SP 55.1 Motherwell 2 97.2 Hillside 99.3
Markman Industrial 56.8 McNaughton 97.3 Adcockvale 99.3
Zwide 1 59 Gerald Smith 97.4 Mount Pleasant 99.3
Blikkiesdorp 60.5 Scheepershoogte 97.6 Humewood Coast 99.3
Soweto On Sea 60.5 Emerald Hill 97.7 Tulbach 99.3
Uitenhage SP 63.3 West End 97.7 Lorraine 99.3
Swartkops 68.5 Cannonvale SP 97.8 Westering 99.3
New Brighton 1 69.6 Motherwell 6 97.8 Lovemore Heights 99.4
Motherwell 8 70.6 Mount Road 97.8 Francis Evatt Park 99.4
Motherwell 11 74.3 Sunridge Park 97.8 Woodlands 99.4
Heuwelkruin 75.6 Mill Park 97.8 Gelvan Park 99.4
Kwanobuhle 9 75.7 Kwanobuhle 5 98 Van Riebeeckhoogte 99.4
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 173
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Area Name
Average
Vulnerability
Factor Area Name
Average
Vulnerability
Factor Area Name
Average
Vulnerability
Factor
Kwazakele 80.5 Rosedale 98 Vanes Estate 99.4
Gqebera SP 81.2 Gelvandale 98 Brymore 99.5
New Brighton 2 81.2 Cotswold 98.1 Kamma Park 99.5
Zwide 2 81.2 Port Elizabeth Central 98.1 Ferguson 99.5
Kabah 81.9 College Hill 98.2 Manor Heights 99.5
Colleen Glen 83.4 Kwaford 98.2 Ben Kamma 99.5
Kwanobuhle 84.4 Lorraine Manor 98.2 Framesby North 99.5
Lovemore Park 84.7 Linton Grange 98.2 Penford 99.6
Mandelaville 84.7 Sidwell 98.2 Valleisig 99.6
Tiryville 84.8 Sans Sousi 98.2 Retief 99.6
Kwazakele 1 86.2 Janssendal 98.3 Mount Croix 99.6
Kwanobuhle 3 86.8 Mountain View 98.3 Glendinningvale 99.6
Kwazakele 3 87.9 Port Elizabeth SP 98.4 Windsor Park 99.7
Port Elizabeth University 87.9 North End 98.4 Redhouse 99.7
Theescombe 88.8 Providentia 98.4 Salisbury Park 99.7
Govan Mbeki 89 Miramar 98.4 Cotswold Ext 99.7
Daleview 89.7 Forest Hill 98.5 Millard Grange 99.7
Kwanobuhle 1 89.7 Jarman 98.5 Booysen Park 99.7
Malabar 89.8 Fernglen 98.5 Kubega Park 99.8
Bloemendal 89.9 Fairview 98.5 Asalia Park 99.8
Parsons Vlei 90 Walmer 98.5 Framesby Ext 99.8
Langa 90.2 Morningside 98.5 Holland Park 99.8
Motherwell 10 90.6 Walmer Heights 98.6 Campher Park 99.8
Soweto-on-Sea 91.4 Glenroy Park 98.6 Kunene Park 99.8
Khaya Mnandi SP 91.5 Thomas Gamble 98.6 Levydale 99.8
Zwide 3 91.6 Kensington 98.6 Mangold Park 99.8
Motherwell SP 92.1 Schauderville 98.6 Van Der Stel 99.9
Bethelsdorp SP 92.1 Moselville 98.7 Cleary Park 99.9
Arcadia 92.4 Despatch Central 98.7 Greenarces 100
Motherwell 7 92.7 Salt Lake 98.7 Perridgevale 100
Kwanobuhle 7 92.9 Springfield 98.8 Walmer Park 100
Fairbridge Heights Ext 93 Broadwood 98.8 Wells Estate 100
Helenvale 93.3 Greenshields Park 98.8 Willow Glen 100
Soweto-on-Sea 93.5 Cannon Hill 98.8 Allenridge West 100
Kwazakele 2 93.5 Rowallan Park 98.9 Cape Road 100
Zwide 4 94 Newton Park 98.9 Amsterdamhoek 100
St Albans Prison 94.2 Glenhurd 98.9 Salt Pan Data not
available
Korsten 94.4 Salsoneville 98.9 Kwanobuhle 11 Data not
available
Parsons Hill 94.4 Western Hills 98.9 Struandale Data not
available
The Vulnerability levels based on the above ratings are shown in Figure 8-4.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 174
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Figure 8-4: Census Vulnerability Indicator
This census vulnerability data layer was based on the 2001 Census data, and might be considered
outdated. It is therefore proposed that an updated vulnerability mapping exercise should be
conducted as soon as new census data becomes available after the 2011 census.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 175
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
9 Resilience Profile of the NMBM The resilience characteristics relate to the capacity within the NMBM area to counter the effects of
hazards and vulnerabilities. Resilience levels consist of Manageability and Capacity values, and are
defined as follows:
Manageability – For the purpose of this assessment Manageability was defined as the combination
of all the strengths and resources available within the government departments and line-functions
that can be used to reduce the level of risk or the effects of a disaster. This includes the level of staff
or human resources, available expertise, suitable experience, available vehicles, equipment, funding
or budget allocations, facilities and risk reduction and response plans.
Capacity – For the purpose of this assessment Capacity was defined as the combination of all the
strengths and resources available within the community or society that can be used to reduce the
level of risk or the effects of a disaster. Capacity was rated by making use of the same classification
as Manageability.
Resilience – The Resilience value defines the total ‘resilience’ level in a specific area or community
based on the Capacity levels of the community, as well as the Manageability levels of the
authorities, government department and line-functions to deal with disaster risk or the effects of
disasters. The Resilience value is calculated by combining the Manageability and Capacity values.
9.1 Description of Resilience Role Players
A description of the responding role-players as well as the results of the self-evaluation are provided
below.
9.1.1 Beach office
The Beach office also took part in the self-evaluation, and the results are shown below:
Table 9-1: Results of Self-evaluation: Beach Office
Role-player Staff Expertise Vehicles Equip Funding Building Prevention Response Avg
Value
Beach Offices 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.13
Specific needs identified by the Beach office representative included:
• a need for better communication with disaster related stakeholders; and
• the formalizing of department risk reduction plans.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 176
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
9.1.2 Business and the Chamber of Commerce
The private sector plays an important role with regard to disaster management. According to the
GPSDM (1998) “the commercial and private sector can also play an essential role in disaster
mitigation. Usually the role of such players has been in the field of relief and recovery. While the
value of such contributions is great, the commercial sector should play a greater role in the
mitigation of disasters through training, education and capacity building. Involvement by this sector
can also be expanded from that of relief to proactive mitigation.”
It is important that cooperation and coordination between the private sector and the NMBM,
including disaster management, is encouraged. The private sector, however, does not only play a
role in supporting the municipality’s disaster management activities, but should also ensure that
internal risk management activities, especially related to enterprise risk and business continuity
management are in place. This will lead to a more resilient economy in the NMBM.
9.1.3 Community Representatives
According to the GPSDM (1998) “community groups have played and continue to play a major role
in disaster management. They are quick in response, have local knowledge and expertise to their
advantage and can also act as important channels for awareness raising and education. Disaster
management therefore needs to be a coordinated effort between government, various institutions,
non-governmental organisations, community-based organisations and the commercial sector.
Where communities are not directly involved and are passive recipients of relief, the result may be
the aggravation of a "dependency" syndrome. Existing community networks and agencies can
therefore play a major role in disaster management, but the pressing need is for such groups to
expand their roles in disaster reduction and mitigation activities and not merely to focus on relief
activities.”
Based on the above, it is important to consider the community in the NMBM not only as helpless
victims of disaster events, but as empowered role-players who can play a valuable role in support of
both pre- and post-disaster activities. Due to this, community representatives were also requested to
conduct a capacity self-evaluation. The focus of this evaluation was based on the available resources
within the community, as well as disaster management specific skills, or activities. Community
members are mostly considered the victims in disaster situations. As a brief summary Table 9-2
provides an overview of the roles various groups within the community can play in disaster
management activities.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 177
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Table 9-2: Function of Community members and Author ities
Community Role Player Function The Disaster Management Volunteers
The formal, trained volunteer unit assist Disaster Management in their functions.
The residents and affected communities
Assist with disaster risk reduction and co-operation.
The Ward Councillors The Ward Councillors assist with community liaison.
The Community Leaders The Community Leaders assist with community liaison.
Community Development Workers
CDWs assist with liaison and needs identification.
A total of 6 community representatives took part in the capacity self-evaluation. The result of the
community self-assessment is shown in Table 9-3.
Table 9-3: Results of Self-evaluation: Community Re presentatives
Role player Staff Expertise Vehicles Equip Funding Building Prevention Response Avg
Value
Community
Representative 1.50 1.67 1.33 1.50 1.67 2.17 1.50 1.83 1.65
The average score achieved by the community representatives was 1.65. This represents a
classification just less than sufficient. The most frequently mentioned needs identified by
community members relates to the response from disaster management after disasters, e.g. clearing
of rubble, and a need of staff to respond to disasters. It seems to suggest that ‘Disaster Management’
might still be primarily associated with disaster response, and not as a risk reduction function.
Other needs identified by community representatives include:
• A need for improved interaction between community representatives, the Directorates in the
NMBM and the SAPS.
• A need for more disaster related education, awareness building and training
9.1.4 Healthcare related Representatives
Healthcare related representatives play a critical role in disaster management. This is not only true
for post-disaster response activities, but more so for pre-disaster risk reduction. Health related role
players can play a valuable role in improving the health of community members, thereby decreasing
vulnerability to some types of hazards, but can also play a role in surveillance and early warning to
identify the outbreak of diseases.
The location of health related facilities within the NMBM was identified based on GIS data received
from the NMBM as well as the NDMC. The location of all the facilities included in the GIS
modelling process is shown below:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 178
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Figure 9-1: Location of Healthcare related faciliti es in the NMBM
Representatives from the Department of Health, Emergency Medical Services, Clinics and hospitals
took part in the Capacity self-evaluation. The results of this evaluation are shown below:
Table 9-4: Results of Self-evaluation: Health Relat ed Role Players
Role player Staff Expertise Vehicles Equip Funding Building Prevention Response Avg
Value
Dept of
Health 1.00 3.00 2.00 3.00 1.00 3.00 3.00 2.00 2.25
EMS (Public) 1.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.75
Hospital
(Public) 1.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 1.50
Hospital
(Private) 2.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.88
Average 1.25 2.25 1.75 2.00 1.25 2.00 2.25 2.00 1.84
The average rating scored by the health-related role player’s was calculated as 1.84. This is
classified as slightly below “sufficient”. Based on the average values, the greatest need experienced
by health-related role players are insufficient staff (quantity) and insufficient financial resources.
This is shown in Figure 9-2.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 179
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
1.25
2.25
1.75
2.00
1.25
2.00
2.25
2.001.84
1.00
2.00
3.00
Staff Expertise Vehicles Equip Funding Building Prevention Response Average
Average Resilience (Health Services)More than sufficient
Insufficient
Sufficient
Figure 9-2: Average Resilience Ratings for Health S ervices
A specific need identified by the representative from the public hospital was a need for increased
security at the hospital.
9.1.5 Department of Home Affairs
The mandates of the Department of Home Affairs are embedded in legislation, as well as other
policy documents. In order to fulfill its mission the Department executes or participates in the
execution of Civic, Immigration and other mandates. Some of the core functions include the
following key services, such as Civic Services. This entails:
• Maintaining the National Population Register;
• Management of records;
• Citizenship;
• Travel documents and passports;and
• Identity documents (DHA 2009).
Immigration services provided by the Department include:
• Admissions;
• Inspectorate;
• Refugee affairs;
• Information co-ordination;
• Policy directives; and
• Counter-xenophobia (DHA 2009).
From this overview, it is evident that the Department of Home Affairs can play an important role in
Disaster Management. This role is especially important when complex disasters or events such as
xenophobic violence occur.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 180
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
9.1.6 Department of Water Affairs
According to DWAF (2009) “the Department of Water Affairs and Forestry is the custodian of
South Africa's water and forestry resources. It is primarily responsible for the formulation and
implementation of policy governing these two sectors and has override responsibility for water
services provided by local government. While striving to ensure that all South Africans gain access
to clean water and safe sanitation, the water sector also promotes effective and efficient water
resources management to ensure sustainable economic and social development. The forestry
programme promotes the sustainable management of the country's natural forest resources and
commercial forestry for the lasting benefit of the nation.”
Due to the important role that water plays in affecting the vulnerability, resilience and hazard profile
of an area, it is clear that the Department of Water Affairs (DWA) plays an important role in
Disaster Management. Even though the DWA will play a critical role in terms of setting policies
and strategic management of water resources on National level, the local capacity of DWA
representatives will affect the NMBM more directly. Continued cooperation between disaster
management and local representatives of DWA is encouraged.
9.1.7 Disaster Management
The role of the Disaster Management centre is described in the Act and related framework
documents. The Disaster Management functions are overall disaster risk management and co-
ordination, as per section 44 of the Disaster Management Act. This includes a range of activities
both during pre- and post-disaster stages. The results of the self-evaluation of the Disaster
Management Centre (DMC) are shown in Table 9-5 below.
Table 9-5: Results of Self-evaluation: Disaster Man agement
Role player Staff Expertise Vehicles Equip Funding Building Prevention Response Avg
Value
Disaster
Management 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.38
The average rating achieved by the Disaster Management self-evaluation indicates that the NMBM
DMC has insufficient resources to fulfil all its requirements. The specific aspects that were rated as
insufficient included human resources (both in quantity of people as well as expertise), financial
resources and buildings or facilities.
Specific needs identified by the disaster management representative included:
• A need for a fully operational Disaster Management System;
• A need for a practical Disaster Management Plan with Standard Operating Procedures; and
• Greater co-operation of the departments in council in terms of to Disaster Management.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 181
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
It should be stated that the specific needs identified should be given urgent attention. In order to
effectively implement Disaster Management within a municipality such as the NMBM, an
appropriate investment should be made in human resources, disaster management systems, plans and
procedures. This can only be done with the commitment and co-operation from senior and top
management in the NMBM. Secondly, it should be stated that, according to the act and framework,
disaster management should, to a large extent, play a coordinating function in the municipality. Due
to this, adequate provision and support should be provided to the disaster management function in
order to ensure that the required co-operation and coordination can take place between disaster
management, other departments and the relevant line functions. This, again, can only be done with
adequate support and resources from council and top management.
9.1.8 Electricity Department
Electricity provision plays an important role with regard to disaster management. Not only can the
failure of electricity supply cause wide spread disruption to communities, but extended periods of
disruption can reduce the resilience of community and municipal role players especially in disaster
situations. The self-evaluation results of the electricity function for the NMBM is shown below:
Table 9-6: Results of Self-evaluation: Electricity
Role player Staff Vehicles Equip Funding Building Prevention Response Avg
Value
Electricity
Department 1.00 2.00 3.00 1.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
The average resilience rating achieved by the electricity department was 2. Specific needs identified
by the representative included insufficient human resources as well as insufficient funds to
adequately fulfil their role in terms of disaster management in the NMBM.
9.1.9 Fire Service
The Fire Service plays a critical role in disaster management. This is not only related to emergency
response for incidents such as fires and accidents, but also relates to fire risk reduction with
inspections and training throughout the municipality.
The location of fire stations within the NMBM was identified based on GIS data received from the
NMBM as well as the NDMC. The location of all the stations included in the GIS modelling
process is shown below:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 182
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Figure 9-3: Location of Fire Stations in the NMBM
The results of the self-evaluation of the fire services are shown below:
Table 9-7: Results of Self-evaluation: Fire Service s
Role player Staff Expertise Vehicles Equip Funding Building Prevention Response Avg
Value
Fire Service 1.00 2.00 3.00 3.00 2.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 2.25
Based on the self-evaluation, it was indicated that the main need for the fire services relates to
insufficient number of staff members.
9.1.10 Housing
The Department of Housing (Department of Human Settlements) derives its mandate mainly from
the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa Act (Act 108 of 1996) (DoH 2009). In terms of
section 26 of the Constitution everyone has the right to have access to adequate housing (Section
26(1)). The state must therefore take reasonable legislative and other measures, within its available
resources, to achieve the progressive realization of this right (Section 26(2)). The legislation that the
Department of Housing has promulgated and implemented falls squarely within this Constitutional
imperative (DoH 2009).
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 183
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Section 2 of the Housing Act, 1997 (Act No. 107 of 1997) compels all three spheres of government
to give priority to the needs of the poor in respect of housing development (Section 2(1)(a)). In
addition all three spheres of government must ensure that housing development:
• provides as wide a choice of housing and tenure options as is reasonably possible;
• is economically, fiscally, socially and financially affordable and sustainable.
• is based on integrated development planning; and
• is administered in a transparent, accountable and equitable manner, and upholds the practice
of good governance (Section 2(1)(c)) (DoH 2009).
The Green Paper on Disaster Management (GPSDM 1998), defines the role of the Department of
Housing as follows:
“The Department of Housing is not directly involved in disaster management. Its main role is to
assist with the establishment of appropriate housing structures, and programmes in the formal
housing sector. To this end it develops and administers national housing policy and legislation.
Disasters are most evident in areas where there is rapid urbanisation, and where informal
settlements occur. Disasters in the housing sector can occur because of improper location of
housing due to non-adherence to standards, and inadequate infrastructure such as electricity, water
and sanitation which can cause health and other risks. A prerequisite for the allocation of housing
subsidies is that housing must be in accordance with building and planning legislation. In this
legislation factors relating to disasters, such as 50-year flood lines, permissible angle slopes, soil
stability and housing densities are dealt with. In cases of emergency, the local authority, or the
SANDF deals with temporary housing needs. Other institutions, such as the Salvation Army and
religious welfare organisations, provide forms of temporary accommodation or shelter. The
involvement of the People's Housing Partnership - a non-governmental organisation programme
aimed at supporting community efforts - could also be asked to support with emergency housing
needs in times of disasters.”
There are a number of factors that can contribute to the vulnerability of a community and individual
families. One of the key factors, however, relates to the quality of housing a community has access
to. Based on the above, there is a responsibility on the NMBM and related departments to play a
specific role in supporting the national and provincial governments in achieving these goals.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 184
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
9.1.11 Traffic Department
The traffic department plays can play an important role in both pre- as well as post-disaster
situations. Not only does the traffic department assist with managing aspects related to
transportation during emergencies and disasters, but the traffic department has an important
responsibility with regards to risk reduction and law enforcement which can reduce the risk of
disasters.
9.1.12 Nelson Mandela Municipality (climate change)
Representatives from the NMBM Climate section also took part in the self evaluation. The results of
this evaluation are shown below.
Table 9-8: Results of Self-evaluation: NMBM (Climat e)
Role player Staff Expertise Vehicles Equip Funding Building Prevention Avg
Value
NMBM (Climate
Change) 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 1.57
The greatest needs identified by the representative related to equipment, funding and facilities.
9.1.13 Non Governmental Organizations
Non-Governmental, Religious and Faith Based Organizations can play an important role in disaster
management. According to the GPSDM (1998) “non-governmental organisations … have often
played an important relief role in disasters. Some evaluations of past involvement of non-
governmental organisations and during disasters have shown that non-governmental involvement
has generally been positive. This is not to say that all community committees worked well. Some
have been more successful than others. Conflicts between government and non-governmental
organisations, and between community groups, can arise, delaying and hampering disaster
management activities. Because non-governmental organisations can often provide relief more
quickly, and in the case of small disasters, more appropriately, it is important that the government
ensure that non-governmental organisations receive information promptly. At the same time, non-
governmental organisations have much useful information to offer to the local early-warning system.
Non-governmental organisations should therefore be a formal part of the local early-warning
system. Even when disasters are so large that they are beyond the resources of the non-
governmental organisations, these organisations are often able to provide assistance that is
complementary to government. Good links with non-governmental organisations should therefore
be promoted at all levels.” The above section highlights the importance of the role of NGOs in
disaster management. Non-governmental, religious and faith-based organizations were also
included in the self-evaluation exercise. The result achieved are shown below:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 185
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Table 9-9: Results of Self-evaluation: Non-Governme ntal Organizations
Role
player Staff Expertise Vehicles Equip Funding Building Prevention Response
Avg
Value
Red Cross 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.25
The results from the self-evaluation show that the NGOs consider a number of their resources as
insufficient in fulfilling their role in Disaster management. The resources considered insufficient
included human resources, vehicles, equipment, funding and disaster related plans (both risk
reduction and response).
9.1.14 Representative from Airport / ACSA
The Airports Company of South Africa (ACSA), and key supporting services, play a key role in
managing the air transportation in and around South Africa. This has a bearing on Disaster
Management for a number of reasons. The most obvious reason relates to the aspects of safety and
security at South African airports. A lack of adequate safety and security at airports can give rise to
a multitude of problems, which can increase the risk of disaster. This includes air transportation,
terrorism, or human disease disasters.
Air transportation and the associated industries however not only play a role in managing the risks of
disaster, but can play a key role in post-disaster activities. This is especially the case with
facilitating the movement of people, equipment and supplies during the aftermath of a disaster and
during disaster response activities.
A representative from the airport industry took part in the self evaluation. The result of the
evaluation is shown below:
Table 9-10: Results of Self-evaluation: Airport / A CSA
Role player Staff Expertise Vehicles Equip Funding Building Prevention Response Avg
Value
Airport /
ACSA 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.88
Based on this assessment, the main need identified by the representative relates to insufficient funds.
A specific additional need identified by the representative was a need for more medical equipment
and ambulances from EMS.
9.1.15 Representatives from Industry & Waste Manage ment Companies
As is the case with the commercial and private business sector in the NMBM, the industrial sector
plays an important role in disaster management. Manufacturing is the single largest contributor to
the GGVA (31,1%) in the NMBM (See Section 6.6), and therefore plays an important role in the
economy of the NMBM as well as the Eastern Cape region. NMBM has various large industrial
installations which provide a number of benefits to the city, including benefits related to the
economy and job creation. However, major industry can also pose a severe risk with regard to
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 186
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
pollution, fires, explosion and hazardous material. It is therefore critical that there is adequate
communication and coordination between Industry and the Safety and Security role players in the
NMBM, including the Fires Services, EMS and disaster management.
As part of this assessment, consultations were conducted with representatives from a number of
industries and a waste management firm in the NMBM. As part of these consultations,
representatives also conducted a self-evaluation of their disaster management capacity. The average
results of the assessment are shown below:
Table 9-11: Results of Self-evaluation: Industry
Role player Staff Expertise Vehicles Equip Funding Building Prevention Response Avg
Value
Industry & Waste
Management 2.29 2.36 2.13 2.54 2.31 3.00 2.31 2.38 2.35
The average score calculated and based on the results from the representative’s self-evaluation
indicated that industries in the NMBM are generally of the opinion that they have sufficient
resources to fulfil their responsibilities in respect of disaster management. A number of specific
needs and comments were identified during the consultations. These included:
• A critical need with regard to insufficient water pressure in some industrial areas was
identified. This was identified as a big concern for representatives. Representatives
mentioned that this matter was escalated to the Fire Department as well as the City Engineer,
but that a final solution with regards to this matter has not yet been implemented. Another
representative indicated that problems were also experienced with water pressure that was
too high, and caused water pipes to burst. Based on these two complaints it appears that
attention is needed to resolve the problems associated with water pressure in selected areas
of the NMBM. An additional problem was also identified with regards to electricity spikes
and associated problems in the industrial area.
• A need for more involvement and coordination between the Emergency Services (Fire
Services, Traffic, and EMS) and the industries, especially with regard to emergency drills
was identified.
• A number of representatives also indicated that they do not have their own fire services, but
are dependent on assistance from the municipal fire service. This highlights the importance
of adequate coordination and cooperation between industries and the NMBM fire services.
A number of representatives have indicated that they work fairly close with the fire services,
and that the working relationship is generally good. Received comments included “Fire
Department (South End Station) responds quickly and effectively.”
• Representatives also indicated a specific need for training with regard to International
Maritime Dangerous Goods and International Ship and Port Facility Security Code training.
Comments with regards to a need for improvement at the Port of Ngqura with regards to fire
services were also received. A representative also indicated that, according to his
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 187
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
knowledge, the Municipality does not have a HAZCHEM response unit to purge chemical
leakages.
• Specific needs for additional financial resources to improve safety at facilities (to increase
pump capacity, installation of sprinklers, increase perimeter security cameras, capital
expenses to reduce insurance risk, etc.) was also identified.
• A need for an early warning system related to weather systems was identified by a
representative. The early warning system needs to consider operational oceanography buoys
at the coast, and raise awareness about weather systems through the DMC.
Based on the comments, it seems as if representatives from industry recognize the value of improved
cooperation and coordination between various industries, as well as industries and the local safety
and security services. These relationships should be further expanded on to ensure adequate risk
reduction and preparedness.
9.1.16 South African Maritime Safety Authority (SAM SA)
SAMSA was established on 1 April 1998 in terms of the South African Maritime Safety Authority
Act 5 of 1998 with the main objective of leading and championing South Africa’s maritime interests
as custodians and stewards of maritime policy, vigorous promoters of the maritime sector and giving
full and complete effect to their obligations for the benefit of all stakeholder (SAMSA, 2007).
In line with its objectives SAMSA’s primary areas of responsibility include:
• Participating in the development and implementation of national and international maritime
safety and marine environment protection standards;
• Enforcing technical and operational standards for all shipping operations in South African
waters and for South African ships anywhere, to promote responsible operations in terms of
seaworthiness, safety and pollution prevention;
• Enforcing training standards and competency of seafarers;
• Managing the national capability to respond to marine pollution incidents and other maritime
emergencies;
• Operating the Maritime Rescue Co-ordination Centre to coordinate maritime assistance services
and to detect, and coordinate the location and rescue of people in maritime distress situations
throughout the internationally agreed South African Search and Rescue Region;
• Overseeing the provision of maritime distress and safety communications services to discharge
South Africa's responsibilities under the Global Maritime Distress and Safety System;
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 188
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
• Administering South Africa's voluntary ship reporting system (SAFREP) for identifying and
tracking ships at sea for safety purposes and to provide a ships' database for responding to
marine emergencies;
• Investigating maritime casualties; and
• Delivering related services including:
o Public awareness and education in marine safety and pollution prevention;
o Administration of South Africa's ship registration system; and
o Publication of, and access to, ship safety and environmental standards.
SAMSA delivers four main outputs consistent with its mandate and responsibilities (SAMSA, 2007):
• Safety and environment protection standards for responsible maritime transport operations;
• An infrastructure for monitoring and enforcing compliance with safety and environment
protection standards;
• The capability to respond to marine pollution incidents and other maritime emergencies; and
• The capability to detect, locate and rescue people in maritime distress situations.
Based on SAMSA’s activities and main objectives, SAMSA can play a role in disaster management,
especially related to risks associated with maritime operations. A representative from SAMSA also
took part in the capacity self-evaluation. The results are shown below:
Table 9-12: Results of Self-evaluation: SAMSA
Role
player Staff Expertise Vehicles Equip Funding Building Prevention Response
Avg
Value
SAMA 2.00 2.00 3.00 2.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.25
During the self-evaluation, SAMSA received a fairly high score (2.25). According to this score,
SAMSA is classified as an organization with sufficient resources to fulfil its disaster management
responsibilities.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 189
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
9.1.17 South African National Defence Force
According to the GPSDM2 (1998), “the primary role of the SANDF is defense. The SANDF may,
however, be employed for service in the preservation of life, health, or property and for service in
the provision or maintenance of essential services. The SANDF can also be requested to provide
support by other government departments. In the past, the SANDF has provided valuable support
and services to national departments and local government where capacity has been lacking. The
SANDF’s role therefore is cross-cutting and can be used to enhance existing attempts by other
government departments to deal with disaster situations more effectively. The SANDF has
resources, though limited, to carry out search and rescue operations at land, sea and air, to provide
medical support, to transport relief provisions such as food and water, and to undertake the building
of bridges, earth removal and road-building. The SANDF can also have access to military
assistance in disaster relief operations from the other members of the Southern African Development
Community. The SA Air Force can also assist with Search and Rescue Operations. The SANDF has
the capability of communicating with the whole defense force and can rapidly distribute information.
The SANDF works closely with provinces and at the local level, and cooperates with the SAPS
through a system of security committees at all levels.”
It is clear that the SANDF can play a critical role in disaster situations. One such example was the
role the SANDF played during the xenophobic violence in South Africa during May 2008. The
results of the self-evaluation of the SANDF are shown below:
Table 9-13: Results of Self-evaluation: South Afric an National Defence Force
Role
player Staff Expertise Vehicles Equip Funding Building Prevention Response
Avg
Value
SANDF 2.00 2.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
The greatest need identified by the SANDF representative during the capacity self-evaluation related
to insufficient funding. The majority of the other aspects were rated as sufficient.
9.1.18 South African Police Service
According to the GPSDM3 (1998) “the primary role of the SAPS is crime prevention, crime
investigation, and the security of citizens. However, the SAPS may be employed for service in the
preservation of life, health, or property and for service in the provision or maintenance of essential
services and can be requested to provide support by other government departments. In the past, the
SAPS have provided valuable support and services to national departments and local government
where capacity has been lacking. The role therefore is cross-cutting and can be used to enhance
existing attempts by other government departments to deal with disaster situations more effectively.
2 Sections of quote related to SAPS removed to shorten paragraph. 3 Sections of quote related to SANDF removed to shorten paragraph.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 190
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
The SAPS has been involved in cases of disaster in crime prevention, control of traffic, maintaining
public order and cordoning off and patrolling disaster areas. The SAPS also has a more specialised
role in security-related disasters such as civil unrest, bomb explosions and acts of terror. In
general, the SAPS is involved in most disasters where negligence is suspected and where people are
killed. The SAPS has well-established nodal points which can serve as an early warning system and
can be used to enhance preparedness in cases of crisis. The SAPS also has units at the provincial
and local levels. It is strengthening its networks and can reach all sectors of our society through the
existing Community Policing Forums. These networks are important in mobilizing voluntary
support and disseminating information about disasters to communities. In this way, community
preparedness can be rapidly activated.”
The role that the SAPS plays in terms of specialist as well as supporting function with regard to
disaster management is critical. The location of police stations within the NMBM was identified
based on GIS data received from the NMBM as well as the NDMC. The location of all the stations
included in the GIS modelling process is shown below:
Figure 9-4: Location of Police Stations in the NMBM
The location of these police stations was included in the GIS resilience and risk modelling.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 191
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
9.1.19 Weather Services
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) became a public entity on 15 July 2001 in terms of the
South African Weather Service Act, Act No. 8 of 2001. In terms of the Act, the company provides
two distinct services, namely public good services which are funded by government, and commercial
services, where the user-pays principle applies. The South African Weather Service is an
authoritative voice for weather and climate forecasting in South Africa and, as a member of the
World Meteorological Organization (WMO), complies with international meteorological standards.
As an Aviation Meteorological Authority, SAWS is designated by the state to provide weather
services to the aviation industry and to fulfill the international obligations of the government under
the Convention of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). The company also
provides maritime weather forecasting services for the vast oceans around Southern Africa extending
to Antarctica.
The SAWS can play a very import role especially in the field of early warning and risk reduction in
disaster management. A representative from the SAWS also took part in the self-evaluation of their
capacity in terms of disaster management, and the results are shown below:
Table 9-14: Average Resilience ratings: SAWS
Role-player Staff Expertise Vehicles Equip Funding Building Prevention Response Average
Weather
Services 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.38
The general capacity of the SAWS in terms of disaster management was rated as being between
“Sufficient” and “More than Sufficient”. Continued coordination, especially in the field of early
warning is therefore proposed, especially in light of the need for an early warning system, as
identified by representatives from industries (See Section 9.1.15).
9.2 Stakeholder Resilience Profile
The overview of the Resilience ratings calculated and based on the self-evaluation of the
representatives in the NMBM is shown in Table 9-15 below:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 192
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Table 9-15: Average Resilience ratings from Stakeho lder Consultations
Role-player Staff Expertise Vehicles Equip Funding Building Prevention Response Average
Industry 2.29 2.36 2.13 2.54 2.31 3 2.31 2.38 2.42
SAWS 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.38
Fire Service 1.00 2.00 3.00 3.00 2.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 2.25
SAMA 2.00 2.00 3.00 2.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.25
Electricity
Department 1.00 - 2.00 3.00 1.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
SADF 2.00 2.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
Airport / ACSA 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.88
Health Role-
Players 1.25 2.25 1.75 2.00 1.25 2.00 2.25 2.00 1.84
Community
Representative 1.50 1.67 1.33 1.50 1.67 2.17 1.50 1.83 1.65
NMBM (Climate
Change) 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 - 1.57
Disaster
Management 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.38
Red Cross 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.25
Beach Offices 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.13
Average 1.54 1.94 2.02 1.93 1.48 2.17 1.85 1.85 1.84
The average resilience rating achieved by the role players was 1.84. This is slightly below the
“sufficient” category. The average ratings are represented in Figure 9-5.
1.54
1.94 2.02 1.93
1.48
2.17
1.85
1.85 1.84
1.00
2.00
3.00
Staff Expertise Vehicles Equip Funding Building Prevention Response Avg Value
Average Resilience Values
More than sufficient (3)
Insufficient (1)
Sufficient (2)
Figure 9-5: Average Resilience Rating for the NMBM role players
Based on only the average values, the resources that were rated mostly “insufficient” were financial
resources (budget) and human resources (in terms of number of staff members). An interesting
observation is the average rating associated with expertise (1.94). This might be an indication that
the expertise available (such as specialist knowledge and experience) amongst the current human
resources was considered more sufficient, but that the number of staff members was considered
insufficient. Furthermore, based on only the average values, resources such as equipment, disaster
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 193
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
plans (both risk reduction and response) and expertise were considered less than sufficient, however
the tendency average rating were more placed towards the sufficient spectrum than the insufficient
spectrum. The only resource that achieved an average classification of sufficient was building or
facilities resources.
A different analysis of the answers provided by the representatives indicates a similar, but slightly
different picture. In an assessment of the resources that were assigned the lowest rating by each of
the representatives, the greatest needs for resources again related to Financial and Human Resources
(in terms of number of staff members).
9.3 GIS based Resilience mapping for the NMBM
The risk assessment approach also required the spatial mapping of resilience levels in the NMBM.
This was done as described in Section 5.6. The result of the resilience mapping based on the
location of key facilities is shown below:
Figure 9-6: Resilience mapping based on location of key facilities in the NMBM.
Resilience mapping based on land-use/land-cover data was also conducted. The result of this
process is shown below:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 194
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Figure 9-7: Resilience mapping based on Land-use / Land-cover in the NMBM.
In order to use a single resilience data layer in the GIS disaster model, the two resilience maps were
combined to create a single resilience map for the NMBM. This map is shown in Figure 9-8 below:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 195
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Figure 9-8: Resilience levels in the NMBM.
The hazard, vulnerability and resiliency data was included in the GIS Risk Model, and the risk levels
were calculated based on the methodology discussed in Section 5. The results of the modelling
process are discussed in Section 10.
9.4 Resilience factors for Wards in the NMBM
The GIS resilience data layer was used to calculate resilience values for each of the wards in the
NMBM. The results of this assessment are shown below:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 196
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Figure 9-9: Average Resilience Level per Ward
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 197
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
10 Risk Assessment and Modelling Results The Risk modelling process was completed by using the Hazard, Vulnerability and Capacity data,
and calculating the risk levels as described in Section 5. The risk modelling results for the NMBM
are presented below.
10.1 Prioritised Risk Profile
The prioritised risk profile for the NMBM is based on the data received from the workshop
consultations, as well as the base data (including reports) collected during the study. The
stakeholder perception data and local resilience data were compared with the desktop hazard
assessment results, and the hazard severity value was adopted. The Risk Prioritization for the
NMBM is shown below:
Table 10-1: Prioritized Risk Ratings for the NMBM
Hazard Name Prioritized
Risk Ratings
Hydro-meteorological Hazards - Floods (River, Urban & Dam Failure) 0.85 Hazardous Material - Hazmat: Fire/Explosion (Storage & Transportation) 0.85 Hazardous Material - Hazmat: Spill/Release (Storage & Transportation) 0.82 Hydro-meteorological Hazards - Severe Storms (Wind, Hail, Lightning, Fog) 0.81
Disease / Health - Disease: Human 0.78
Hydro-meteorological - Drought 0.78
Environmental Degradation 0.76
Fire Hazards - Formal & Informal Settlements / Urban Area 0.76
Fire Hazards - Veld/Forest Fires 0.73
Pollution - Water Pollution (Fresh and Sea) 0.72
Major Event Hazards (Cultural, Religious, Political, Recreational, Commercial, Sport) 0.71 Oceanographic - Storm Surge 0.71 Transport Hazards - Road Transportation 0.70 Civil Unrest - Xenophobic Violence 0.69 Structural Failure 0.68 Pollution - Land Pollution 0.68 Civil Unrest - Terrorism 0.67 Oceanographic - Sea Level Rise (Climate Change) 0.67 Pollution - Air Pollution 0.65 Civil Unrest - Demonstrations / Riots 0.65 Oceanographic - Tsunami 0.65 Transport Hazards - Rail Transportation 0.64 Infrastructure Failure / Service Delivery Failure 0.64 Civil Unrest - Armed Conflict (Civil/Political War) 0.61 Disease / Health - Disease: Animal 0.61 Geological Hazards - Earthquake 0.60 Transport Hazards - Air Transportation 0.58 Transport Hazards - Water Transportation 0.57 Civil Unrest - Refugees / Displaced People 0.51 Infestations - Plant Infestations (Intruder Plants) 0.44 Disease / Health - Disease: Plants 0.41 Radio Active Fall-out NA
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 198
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
11 Conclusions and Main Findings This report represents the method and findings of the disaster risk assessment for the Nelson
Mandela Bay Municipality. The main findings were:
i. The highest rated risks in the municipality were identified as Hydro-meteorological Risks (Floods and Storms) and Hazardous Material Risks (Spill/Release & Fire/Explosion).
ii. Hydro-meteorological Risks: Risks associated with climatic conditions has long been a
problem in the NMBM, and extreme weather events have been part of regular burdens
communities in the NMBM have had to learn to live with. However, uncertainty with
regards to changing weather patterns (which might lead to even higher intensity events) and
continued urbanisation has highlighted the need for decisive action with regards to managing
risks associated with floods and severe storms in the NMBM.
iii. Hazardous Material Risks: Due to the prominent role that the manufacturing sector and
industry plays in the NMBM as well as the movement of hazardous material through the
NMBM (from the harbours and industries), the NMBM can be considered to be at high risk
for hazards associated with hazardous material. This risk related to fires, explosions and
accidental spill or release of hazardous material both on-site, and during road or rail
transportation. A hazardous material disaster can have a severe impact on the NMBM
community, causing structural damage, injuries or fatalities, environmental degradation and
displacement of individuals.
iv. Human Disease Hazards, especially challenges associated with HIV/AIDS poses an
enormous challenge to the Eastern Cape, as well as the NMBM. HIV/AIDS not only has a
serious impact on the infected individual, but also has numerous secondary impacts on
affected communities, including decreased productivity of workers, increased absenteeism
and additional costs of training of new workers. It also represents a greater demand and
pressure on health facilities. Another serious impact related to HIV/AIDS is the problem
associated with orphans and child headed households. HIV/AIDS therefore not only has the
direct consequence of reduction in health, or loss of life, the secondary effects can further
increase the vulnerability of communities to other non-related hazards. Other diseases
included under the human health and disease category includes Tuberculosis.
v. Other top rated risks in the NMBM include:
• Hydro-meteorological – Drought;
• Environmental Degradation; and
• Fire Hazards - Formal & Informal Settlements / Urban Area.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 199
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
vi. The main disaster risk reduction measures include:
• Flooding and Storm Hazards
o A flood risk assessment should be carried out based on existing floodlines in order
to further prioritize problem areas and define remediation;
o High water markers and beacons to indicate depth of rivers. Maintenance of
beacons, and installation of additional high water markers;
o Ensuring no development and building in floodline areas. Awareness programmes
and law enforcement; and
o Stormwater maintenance. Ongoing stormwater maintenance.
• Industrial Hazards o Survey of industries (for fire and hazardous materials risks); associated updating of
hazard severity map;
o Compilation of hazardous materials register/database, indicating the location and
contents of facilities spatially and in database format;
o Stakeholder meetings to confirm and refine the findings, discuss cooperation to find
solutions to similar challenges; and
o Integrated register/database.
• Human Health Hazards o Epidemic and health statistic tracking and warnings enabling early warning of
possible epidemics.
o Ensure potable water supply delivery to all settlements, even informal settlements if
possible. Water supply delivery programmes in areas where population density is
high but water supply is not available.
o Logging system and monitoring of communicable diseases on a daily basis at clinics
and hospitals, on a central database.
o Continue existing HIV/AIDS programmes.
vii. Due to fairly outdated census data, it is currently not possible to provide an updated
vulnerability profile of the NMBM. However, statistics used (including the 2007
community survey) indicate that the NMBM is, generally speaking, less vulnerable than the
areas neighbouring the NMBM.
viii. Activities to be implemented to improve the Vulnerability of the NMBM include:
• Increase the access of vulnerable groups to services, power structures and resources;
• Develop local institutions, education, training and appropriate skill development
opportunities;
• Develop and secure local investment and local markets;
• Improve ethical standards in public life (including crime prevention, safety and security);
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 200
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
• Manage urbanisation;
• Protect natural and forest environments;
• Diversify income opportunities; and
• Strengthen livelihoods and increase low income levels.
ix. The IDP priorities and IDP Five Year Performance Plan seems to include a number of
priorities that will reduce disaster risk in the NMBM.
x. The average resilience level of role-player within the NMBM was rated as 1,84 on a scale
from 1 (insufficient), 2 (sufficient) and 3 (more than sufficient). This relates to a relatively
high rating, but is still below the ‘sufficient’ level. As a general observation, representatives
that took part in the capacity self-evaluation assessment generally have near sufficient
resources to fulfil some aspects of their disaster management responsibilities. However, the
main needs identified by role players relate to staff (quantity) as well as funding.
The NMBM consists of various areas with different vulnerability and resilience values. It would
appear, however, that the NMBM has made good progress in offering basic services (such as water
and sanitation) to communities. These efforts impact significantly on the vulnerability of
communities, and, where required, should be further expanded. In parallel, a duel focus should be
on specific disaster management related planning (where gaps still exist), and implementation of
suitable hazard mitigation measures related to the highest rated risks.
11.1 Comparison with Previous Disaster Risk Assessm ent
In comparing the results of the 2005 DRA for the NMBM, and the results of the current DRA, the
following is important:
• During the previous DRA, risk was identified according to the formula R= HxV. This is in line with the DM Framework and Act.
• The current assessment, however, also included a high level, basic Resilience assessment (in combining Capacity and Manageability). The aim of this was to do an initial overview of the current capacities in various line functions and departments in the NMBM. It is proposed that this type of assessment (on a more detailed level) should form part of all future assessments in the NMBM in order to identify progress made with regards to building the resilience levels fn role players in the NMBM.
• The hazard categories considered during this assessment were also expanded on and increased from the previous assessment.
A basic comparison of the results achieved during the 2005 and results achieved during the 2010
assessment are shown below:
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 201
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Hazard Name
DRA 2010
Risk Ratings
(DRA 2010)Hydro-meteorological Hazards - Floods (River, Urban & Dam Failure) 0.85
Hazardous Material - Hazmat: Fire/Explosion (Storage & Transportation) 0.85
Hazardous Material - Hazmat: Spill/Release (Storage & Transportation) 0.82
Hydro-meteorological Hazards - Severe Storms (Wind, Hail, Snow, Lightning, Fog) 0.81
Disease / Health - Disease: Human 0.78
DRA 2005
Hazard CategoriesDRA 2010 Hazard Categories Hydro-meteorological - Drought 0.78
Hazardous Material - Hazmat: Fire/Explosion (Storage & Transportation) 1 Environmental Degradation 0.76
Hazardous Material - Hazmat: Spill/Release (Storage & Transportation) 1 Fire Hazards - Formal & Informal Settlements / Urban Area 0.76
Floods Hydro-meteorological Hazards - Floods (River, Urban & Dam Failure) 2 2 Fire Hazards - Veld/Forest Fires 0.73
Severe wind Hydro-meteorological Hazards - Severe Storms (Wind, Hail, Snow, Lightning, Fog) 3 3 Pollution - Water Pollution (Fresh and Sea) 0.72Environmental degradation: loss of biodiversity
Environmental Degradation 4 4 Major Event Hazards (Cultural, Religious, Political, Recreational, Commercial, Sport) 0.71
Fire Hazards - Formal & Informal Settlements / Urban Area 5 Oceanographic - Storm Surge 0.71
Fire Hazards - Veld/Forest Fires 5 Transport Hazards - Road Transportation 0.70
Civil unrest, terrorism Civil Unrest - Terrorism 6 6 Civil Unrest - Xenophobic Violence 0.69
Transport (rail, road, sea, hazmat) Transport Hazards - Rail Transportation 7 7 Structural Failure 0.68
Pollution - Land Pollution 8 Pollution - Land Pollution 0.68
Pollution - Water Pollution (Fresh and Sea) 8 Civil Unrest - Terrorism 0.67
Epidemics Disease / Health - Disease: Human 9 9 Oceanographic - Sea Level Rise (Climate Change) 0.67
Major events Major Event Hazards (Cultural, Religious, Political, Recreational, Commercial, Sport) 11 11 Pollution - Air Pollution 0.65
Major disruption of key services Infrastructure Failure / Service Delivery Failure 12 12 Civil Unrest - Demonstrations / Riots 0.65
Major air pollution Winter (informal settlements & industries)
10 Oceanographic - Tsunami 0.65
Major air pollution: Summer (industrial)
14 Transport Hazards - Rail Transportation 0.64
Transport (air) Transport Hazards - Air Transportation 13 13 Infrastructure Failure / Service Delivery Failure 0.64
Tsunamis Oceanographic - Tsunami 15 15 Civil Unrest - Armed Conflict (Civil/Political War) 0.61
Sea level rise Oceanographic - Sea Level Rise (Climate Change) 16 16 Disease / Health - Disease: Animal 0.61
Radio-active fall-out Radio-active fall-out 17 17 Geological Hazards - Earthquake 0.60
Transport Hazards - Air Transportation 0.58
Transport Hazards - Water Transportation 0.57
Civil Unrest - Refugees / Displaced People 0.51
Infestations - Plant Infestations (Intruder Plants) 0.44
Disease / Health - Disease: Plants 0.41
Radio Active Fall-out NA
DRA 2005
12Pollution - Air Pollution
Major surface water/land pollution (inland and coastal)
8
1
Fires (informal settlements & bush fires)
5
Industrial hazards, spillages; Explosions and related fires
Figure 11-1: Comparison between the prioritized ris k ratings of the 2005 and the 2010 Disaster Risk As sessment for the NMBM.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 202
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
12 Recommendations and Action Plan The recommendations based on the results of the Risk Assessment include the following proposed
actions and projects:
• The completion of a detailed HAZMAT risk assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay
Municipality;
• The establishment / expansion of HAZMAT working group or advisory committee in the
Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality;
• The completion of a health related needs and vulnerability assessment for the Nelson
Mandela Bay Municipality;
• The completion of a detailed drought risk assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay
Municipality;
• The implementation / establishment of a Comprehensive Information Management System
that can be used for the capturing of information with regards to incidents in the NMBM;
• Detailed flood lines studies and assessments related to the impact of storm and tidal surges
and sea level rise on the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality;
• Development of a Flood Hazard Management System for the Nelson Mandela Bay
Municipality; and
• The development of contingency plans for the remaining disaster risks.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 203
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
13 References and Data Sources Adams, J, (2001) Risk, Routledge: Oxford.
AON Group (2009) 2009 Terrorism Threat Map. Available from www.aon.com.
Arrive Alive. (2007). Yearly Report on Voluntary Public Traffic Observer Reports. Retrieved online: http://www.arrivealive.co.za. [2010, Feb]
Burke, R. (2003) Hazardous Materials Chemistry for Emergency Responders. Lewis Publishers.
CGS. (2010). Correspondence from Dr. Fleur O. Strasser and Mr. M.L. Goedhart (Council of Geoscience) addressed to Mr H Lansdown (Nelson Mandela Disaster Management), dated 3 March 2010. CGS Document Reference 03032010.
CM. (s.a.) Informal Housing Settlement and Squatter Control Policy Guidelines. Cederberg Municipality.
Colgan, A. (2002) Hazardous to Health: The World Bank and IMF in Africa, Action Position Paper. Available at http://www.africaaction.org/action/sap0204.htm
Craig, M.H. and Sharp, B.L. (2000) South African Country Study for Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment: Health Section. Part 1: Malaria. In: Kiker, G. Climate Change Impacts in Southern Africa. Report to the National Climate Change Committee, Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, Pretoria, South Africa.
Daniels, R.C. (2007). Skills Shortages in South Africa: A Literature Review. Development Policy Research Unit, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
DOH (Department of Housing) (2009) Mandate, Vision and Mission of the Department. Available from http://www.housing.gov.za/ (Retrieved: July 2009)
DEAT. 2006. South Africa Environment Outlook. A report on the state of the environment. Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, Pretoria.
DHA (Department of Home Affairs) (2009) Strategic Plan 2009/10 - 2011/12. Department of Home Affairs, Pretoria.
DoA. (2006). Soil erosion. Department of Agriculture, Directorate Agricultural Information Services, Pretoria. (DoA, 2006)
DoH. (2008). Extremely Drug Resistant Tuberculosis (XDR-TB) in South Africa. Department of Health. Statistical Notes. May 2008.
DoH. (2007). Report: National HIV and Syphillis Prevalence Survey: South Africa – 2006. Department of Health South Africa.
Du Plessis, A & Louw, A. (2005.) Crime and Crime Prevention in South Africa: 10 Years After. Crime and Justice Program, Institute for Security Studies, Pretoria.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 204
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
DWAF. (2009) About Us. Retrieved from http://www.dwaf.gov.za. (Retrieved: July 2009)
ECP. (2006) Rapid Assessment of Service Delivery and Socio-Economic Survey. Office of the Premier, Province of the Eastern Cape.
ESKOM. (2001). Environmental Scoping Report: Proposed Transmission Line between Poseidon Substation and Grassridge Substation, Eastern Cape
FAO (2008). Climate change adaptation and mitigation in the food and agriculture sector. Technical background document from the expert consultation held on 5 to 7 March 2008, Rome.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). (1997) Multi Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment: A Cornerstone of the National Mitigation Programme. FEMA.
Glantz, M.H. (1987) Drought and hunger in Africa: denying famine a future. Cambridge University Press.
GPSDM. (1998) Green Paper on Disaster Management. Green Paper Secretariat for Disaster Management, Pretoria.
Greene, R.W. (2002) Confronting Catastrophe; a GIS handbook. ESRI Press, Redlands, California.
Grove A.T. (1993) The Changing Geography of Africa, second edition. Oxford University Press.
Hewitson, B.C. and Crane, R.G. (2006) Consensus between GCM climate change projections with empirical downscaling: Precipitation downscaling over South Africa. International Journal of Climatology 26: 1315 – 1337.
ICSU. (2007). Natural and Human-induced Hazards and Disasters in sub-Saharan Africa. ICSU Regional Office for Africa.
IDP. (2009). Integrated Development Plan 2006 – 2011 of the Nelson Mandela Bay Metropolitan Municipality.
IPCC, 2007a: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 7-22.
Irvin, R.T., and Strong, C.B. (1997) Emergency Response and Hazardous Chemical Management: Priciples and Practices. St. Lucie Press.
Kruger, F.J., Forsuth, G.G., Kruger, L.M., Slater, K., Le Maitre, D.C., & Matshate, J. (2006). Classification of Veldfire Risk in South Africa for the Administration of the Legislation regarding Fire Management. V International Conference on Forest Fire Research, D. X. Viegas (Ed.), 2006
Kijko, A. (2010). Area-Characteristic Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality, Port Elizabeth. Report No: 2010-01. Natural Hazard Assessment Consultancy. Centurion, Republic of South Africa.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 205
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Miller, G.T. (1999) Living in the Environment; Principles, Connections and Solutions, Eleventh Edition. Brookes/Cole Publishing.
Miller, J.B. (1997) Floods: people at risk, strategies for prevention. United Nations, New York.
Misago, J.P., Landau, L.B. And Monson, L. (2009) Towards Tolerance, Law, and Dignity: Addressing Violence against Foreign Nationals in South Africa. International Organization for Migration, Regional Office for Southern Africa, Arcadia.
Mortimore, M. (1998) Roots in the African Dust: Sustaining the Drylands. Cambridge University Press.
MSF (Doctors without Borders) (2007) MSF in South Africa. Retrieved from http://doctorswithoutborders.org/news/country.cfm?id=2366 [Retrieved June 2009)
Markman, I. (2010). Earthquakes not unknown in Eastern Cape, and ancient fault lines cross PE. The Herald [8 Feb 2010]
NMBM. (2010). Air Pollution. Retrieved online: http://www.nelsonmandelabay.gov.za/Content.aspx?objID=407 [2010, Feb].
NMBM. (2010a). Waste Management. Retrieved online: http://www.nelsonmandelabay.gov.za/Content.aspx?objID=270 [2010, March].
NMBM (2009). Environmental Impact Assessment for the proposed Motherwell NU 31 housing development (Draft Scoping Report.) Compiled by ARCUS GIBB.
NMBM (2006). Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality Public Transportation Plan. (Final Report)
NMBM (s.a.) EMS Mass Casualty Incident Management Plan.
NMBM (2010). Analysis - Totals for Incidents: 1 January 1992 – 31 Oct 2009. Received from T. Cameron. [08 February 2010]
PIANC (2008). Waterborne transport, ports and waterways: A review of climate change rivers, impacts responses and mitigation. EnviCom – Task Group 3, PIANC.
Pyle, D. M. (2006). Severe Convective Storm Risk in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy of Rhodes University.
Rahmstorf, S., Caenave, A., Church, J.A., Hansen, J.E., Keeling, R.F., Parker, D.E., Somrville, R.C.J. (2007). Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections. Science Vol 316 pp709.
Rao, P. K. (2000) Sustainable Development; Economics and Policy. Blackwell Publishers.
Rossouw, M. And Theron, A (2009). Maritime transport and the climate change challenge: Aspects of potential climate change impacts on ports and maritime operations around the Southern African Coast. CSIR.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 206
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Schulze, R.E. and Perks, L.A. (2000) Assessment of the impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources in South Africa. In: Kiker, G. Climate Change Impacts in Southern Africa. Report to the National Climate Change Committee, Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, Pretoria, South Africa.
Skidmore, A. (2002) Environmental Modelling with GIS and Remote Sensing. Taylor and Francis, London.
Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, R.B. Alley, T. Berntsen, N.L. Bindoff, Z. Chen, A. Chidthaisong, J.M. Gregory, G.C. Hegerl, M. Heimann, B. Hewitson, B.J. Hoskins, F. Joos, J. Jouzel, V. Kattsov, U. Lohmann, T. Matsuno, M. Molina, N. Nicholls, J. Overpeck, G. Raga, V. Ramaswamy, J. Ren, M. Rusticucci, R. Somerville, T.F. Stocker, P. Whetton, R.A. Wood and D. Wratt, (2007): Technical Summary. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Sampson, G. (2007). Meteorological risk assessment Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipal area. South African Weather Services.
SAMSA (2007). South African can Maritime Safety Authority. Retrieved online: http://www.samsa.org.za/content.asp?subId=1. [2010, Feb]
SRK. (2008). Report 366145-2 prepared by SRK Consulting (SRK 2008)
SRK. (2009). Report 367380/5 prepared by SRK Consulting (SRK 2009)
UNHCR (2009) Country Operations Profile - South Africa. Available from http://www.unhcr.org/cgi-bin/texis/vtx/page?page=49e485aa6 [Retrieved June 2009]
Whelan, M., and Whelan, R.J. (1995) The Ecology of Fire. Cambridge University Press.
Wisner, B., Blaikie, P., Cannon, T. And Davis, I. (2004). At Risk – Natural hazards, people’s vulnerability and disasters. Routledge, NY, USA.
Weyer, K., van der Walt, M. & Kantor, P.(2006). Managing multidrug resistant Tuberculosis – legal implications. MRC Policy brief, No. 1, January 2006.
WHO. (2006). Guidelines for the Programmatic Treatment of Drug-resistant Tuberculosis. World Health Organization.
WHO. (2009). Global status report on road safety: time for action. Geneva, World Health Organization. Retrieved Online: www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_status/2009. [2010, Feb]
Zschau, J. and, Küppers, A.N. (2003) Early Warning Systems for Natural Disaster Reduction. Springer, Berlin.
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 207
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Annexure A – Hazard Categories and Listing
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 208
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Annexure B – GIS RHVMC Modelling & Buffer Guideline s
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 209
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Annexure C – Consultation & Workshop Data Collectio n Sheets
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 210
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Annexure D – Risk Reduction Measures
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 211
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Annexure E – Workshop Attendance Register
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 212
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Annexure F – Hazard Maps
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 213
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Annexure G – Vulnerability Map
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 214
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Annexure H – Resilience Map
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 215
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Annexure I – Ward Based Risk Maps
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 216
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Annexure J – Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for the NMBM
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 217
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
Annexure K – Electronic Copy of Report and Project Data
SRK Consulting (Pty) Ltd Disaster Risk Assessment for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality – Final Report Page 218
VANL/STOM/HINA 404277_NMBM_DRA_Report_20100330f_Final March 2010
SRK Report Distribution Record
Report No. 404277 – Final Report
Copy No. 1 – PDF Copy
Name/Title Company Copy Date Authorised by
Mr H Lansdown NMBM Disaster Management Centre
1 31 March 2010
M Braune
SRK Library SRK Consulting 2 31 March
2010 M Braune
SRK Project File SRK Consulting 3 31 March 2010 M Braune
Approval Signature:
This report is protected by copyright vested in SRK Consulting. It may not be reproduced or
transmitted in any form or by any means whatsoever to any person without the written permission of
the copyright holder, SRK.