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Digital trends: Technology's impact in a world of accelerating returns
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Transcript of Digital trends: Technology's impact in a world of accelerating returns
DIGITAL TRENDS Technology's impact in a world of accelerating returns
PREDICTIONS...
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6d/Niels_Bohr.jpg
„Predic(on is very difficult, especially about the future. “ Niels Bohr (1885 -‐ 1962)
PREDICTIONS...
http://www.businessinsider.com/false-predictons-2012-5?op=1&IR=T
„The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty—a fad.“ President Michigan Savings Bank advising not to invest in Ford Motor Co. (1903)
PREDICTIONS...
http://www.businessinsider.com/false-predictons-2012-5?op=1&IR=T
„There is not the slightest indica(on that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shaSered at will.“ Albert Einstein (1932)
PREDICTIONS...
http://blog.4psa.com/wp-content/uploads/120919071727-ibm-ceos-tom-watson-sr-large-gallery-horizontal.jpg
„I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.“ Thomas Watson (1943)
PREDICTIONS...
https://ionegiantmag.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/bill-gates-desk-picture.jpg
„A computer in every home.“ Bill Gates (1977)
PREDICTIONS...
http://cache.boston.com/resize/bonzai-fba/Globe_Photo/2011/02/07/1297139267_6722/539w.jpg
„There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.“ Ken Olsen (1977)
PREDICTIONS...
http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1265759/images/o-MICROSOFT-MISTAKE-facebook.jpg
„There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.“ Steve Ballmer (2007)
PREDICTIONS...
PREDICTIONS...
http://www.newsweek.com/clifford-stoll-why-web-wont-be-nirvana-185306
„Visionaries see a future of telecommu(ng workers, interac(ve libraries and mul(media classrooms. They speak of electronic town mee(ngs and virtual communi(es. Commerce and business will shi_ from offices and malls to networks and modems. And the freedom of digital networks will make government more democra(c. Baloney. Do our computer pundits lack all common sense? The truth in no online database will replace your daily newspaper, no CD-‐ROM can take the place of a competent teacher and no computer network will change the way government works.“
REALLY?!
REASONS
Companies are planning for con(nuous/linear development – while the world is increasingly discon(nuous/exponen(al
„If the rate of change on the outside exceeds the rate of change on the inside, the end is near.“ Jack Welch
http://www.mrgoodacre.com/uploads/1/0/5/3/10539489/7363039_orig.png?1
REASONS
“How did you go bankrupt?” “Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” ― Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises
REASONS 1. Innovator‘s Dilemma
REASONS 2. Technology-adoption
REASONS 3. Illusion of linearity
hSp://www.evolu(onpartners.com.au/exponen(al-‐growth-‐vs-‐linear-‐thinking-‐in-‐management-‐teams.html
REASONS
„We are fine!“
hSp://www.evolu(onpartners.com.au/exponen(al-‐growth-‐vs-‐linear-‐thinking-‐in-‐management-‐teams.html
REASONS
„We are fucked!“
hSp://www.evolu(onpartners.com.au/exponen(al-‐growth-‐vs-‐linear-‐thinking-‐in-‐management-‐teams.html
ASCI RED: FIRST TERAFLOP COMPUTER 1997
http://www.top500.org/static/media/uploads/20/top-1-systems/asci-red-sandia-national-laboratory/asci%20red5_800x600.jpg
• 1.8 teraflops • 10.000 Intel Pen(um Pro • Size: Tennis-‐Court • Energy consump(on: 800 houses • Cost: $55 million
PS3: JUST 8 YEARS LATER (2005)
http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation_3
• 1.8 teraflops • Cost: $399
DNA-SEQUENCING
http://www.redorbit.com/media/gallery/national-science-foundation-gallery/183_d5b18d488f363c41f4f702d11dc102d2.jpg
• Cost 2007: $10 million
DNA-SEQUENCING
http://www.nature.com/news/technology-the-1-000-genome-1.14901 http://www.redorbit.com/media/gallery/national-science-foundation-gallery/183_d5b18d488f363c41f4f702d11dc102d2.jpg
• Cost 2015: $1.000
LAW OF ACCELERATING RETURNS
http://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/bttf/images/9/92/Texaco1955wide.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20080110081542
• 30 years: 1955 -‐> 1985
LAW OF ACCELERATING RETURNS
https://www.acmi.net.au/media/1682585/back-to-the-future_1200x520.gif
• 30 years: 1985 -‐> 2015
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
http://www.ventures-africa.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/stack-of-paper.jpg
• How many folds to the moon?
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
https://www.acmi.net.au/media/1682585/back-to-the-future_1200x520.gif http://www.codersrevolution.com/blog/will-a-piece-of-paper-folded-42-times-reach-the-moon
REPLACING JOBS
„The role of humans as the most important factor of produc(on is bound to diminish in the same way that the role of horses in agricultural produc(on was first diminished and then eliminated by the introduc(on of tractors.“ Wassily Leon(ef (1983)
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/aa/Leontief-Harvard.jpg
REPLACING JOBS
In the next two decades, 47 per cent of employment is ‘in the high-‐risk category’, meaning it is ‘poten(ally automatable’.
http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/future-employment-how-susceptible-are-jobs-computerisation-oms-working-paper-dr-carl-benedikt-frey-m
REPLACING JOBS
MOBILITY
Cars: $9 trillion market http://www.ibisworld.com/industry/global/global-car-automobile-sales.html http://i.cbc.ca/1.1508368.1381554204!/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/16x9_620/hi-manufacturing852-cp01542.jpg
MOBILITY
1.2 million deaths related to car accidents/year (40% alcohol/93% distracted) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bN44bL3reCo
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1f/Head_On_Collision.jpg
MOBILITY
Driven just 4% of the (me Cost of $9.000/year
http://qz.com/264781/the-latest-attack-on-americas-car-culture-comes-from-wall-street/ http://www.autoblog.com/2012/05/04/average-cost-of-car-ownership-rises-to-8-946-per-year/ http://demonsofdistraction.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/media/2011/11/LostCarParkingLot.jpg
MOBILITY
Self-‐driving cars: 99% fewer cars required Parking lots no longer required (10% city space) http://www.detroitchamber.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/AutofactsAnalystNoteUSFeb2013FINAL.pdf
http://www.templetons.com/brad/robocars/
ENERGY
$6 trillion market (10% GDP)
$6 trillion market (10% GDP)
ENERGY
http://www.gianvonplanta.ch/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/fukushima.jpg
ENERGY
http://rameznaam.com/2011/03/17/expis-moores-law-really-a-fair-comparison-for-solar/
ENERGY
http://www.digitaltonto.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/solar-cost_curve.jpg
ENERGY
http://icdn3.digitaltrends.com/image/tesla-powerwall-7-970x548-c.jpg
HEALTH
$7.5 trillion market From one-‐for-‐all to personalized medicine From treatment to preven(on
HEALTH
$258 bn. + 130,000 deaths due to non-‐prescribed medica(on just in US No doctors required within 20 years? http://www.marsdd.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/marsblog-GivenImaging-PillCam.png
http://www.creativeconstruction.de/lp/trends2015/quantified-self/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTtL-iAXJxo
INSURANCE
Sensors everywhere
http://iot.co.id/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/the-internet-of-things.jpg http://www.creativeconstruction.de/lp/trends2015/redefinition-privacy/
TELCOS
$33 bn. lost SMS revenues http://www.bitkom.org/de/presse/8477_82223.aspx http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2015/1/11/whatsapp-sails-past-sms-but-where-does-messaging-go-next http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-02-21/whatsapp-shows-how-phone-carriers-lost-out-on-33-billion
TELCOS
Dumb pipe?
EDUCATION
http://www.wired.com/2015/05/altschool/
BANKING
„Banking is necessary, banks are not.“ Bill Gates
http://blogs-images.forbes.com/mfonobongnsehe/files/2014/09/bill-gates.jpg
BANKING
2020: 35% of revenues lost to non-‐banks and online pure-‐plays http://cointelegraph.com/storage/uploads/view/a9329ebf6090afb969b7a98195460892.jpg http://www.creativeconstruction.de/lp/trends2015/banking-without-banks/
BANKING
Banking license
BANKING
ASacks on all fronts https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/disrupting-banking-fintech-startups/
MONEY
$500 bn. transfer/payment fees/year http://blog.pmarca.com/2014/01/22/why-bitcoin-matters/ http://www.creativeconstruction.de/lp/trends2015/banking-without-banks/ http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-10-07/andreessen-on-finance-we-can-reinvent-the-entire-thing- http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/06/features/bitcoin-reid-hoffman
THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER?
= largest „taxi“ provider; no vehicles
= most popular media owner; no content created
= most valuable retailer; no inventory
= largest accomoda(on provider; no real estate
= largest food delivery; no restaurants, no fleet
THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER?
User experience = the central part: own the customer (and the profits) by solving her problem in the most seamless, enjoyable way.
„The customer's percep(on is your reality.“ Kate Zabriskie
„Design is not just what it looks like and feels like. Design is how it works.“ Steve Jobs
http://www.dandzombak.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Steve-Jobs-Secret-of-Life.jpg
THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER?
Service Aggrega(on Need
Convenience
passive responsive proac(ve
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fa/NY-Taxis.jpg
THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER?
DIGITAL DISRUPTION BY INDUSTRY
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCdJ8btW0AAlNKz.png:large https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/au/Documents/Building%20Lucky%20Country/deloitte-au-consulting-digital-disruption-whitepaper-0912.pdf
THANK YOU!
Alexander Braun alexander@crea(veconstruc(on.de @almarrone