Desert Outlook and Options for Action

September 7, 2005

GEO for World DesertsChapter 5 Outline

Chapter Outline

1. Outlook for desert development

2. Sustainability and human well-being in deserts

3. Closing remarks: options for action

1. Outlook for desert development

• Development scenarios: future trends for water, biodiversity and land degradation

• Population dynamics and projections on resource demand

• Human well-being and desert vulnerability

• Driving forces for foreseen changes

• Possible actions to be taken to generate desired outcomes

2. Sustainability and human well-being in deserts

• Determinants of well-being in deserts

• The maintenance of ecosystem services

• The evolution of traditional knowledge

• Adaptation of new technologies

• Capacity building for desert sustainability

• Public participation and socio-economic organization

1. Outlook for desert development

Development scenarios: Water

Current issues• Exploitation of non-renewable water resources• Water conflicts and cooperation• Quantity and quality• Year-to-year variability

Future trends?• Difficulty in estimating renewable water resources • Climate change – increased aridity, decreasing water

resources?• Growing population – growing demand

Dryland area by basin

Source: http://www.waterandnature.org/eatlas/

Virtual water flows

Source: http://www.waterandnature.org/eatlas/

Projected water supply in major watersheds in drylands, 2025

White, R. P. and Nackoney, J. (2003) Drylands, people, and ecosystem goods and services: web-based geospatial analysis. World Resources Institute – p. 37

Development scenarios: Biodiversity

Current issues• Status of biodiversity in drylands• Inter-relationships between land degradation, climate

change and biodiversity• Role of agro-diversity

Future trends?• Lack of natural resource inventories• MA projections: conversion of grassland into other uses (agricultural, urban)• Conservation challenges

Development scenarios: Land degradation

Current issues• Vulnerability of drylands to climatic and anthropogenic

stresses• Extent of land degradation/ desertification (e.g.

GLASOD)• Degradation in oases: salinization etc. • Examples of land rehabilitation: Mortimore, Tiffen, Reij,

…

Future trends?• Population pressures and climate stress likely to

increase how to counter their impacts?

"Dust Bowl" in the 1930's

Picture from the National Archives. Source: http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange2/current/lectures/land_deg/land_deg.html

Gully erosion in an arid environment

Source: http://skagit.meas.ncsu.edu/~helena/gmslab/reports/CerlErosionTutorial/denix/Models%20and%20Processes/Gully.htm

Tiffen, M., Mortimore, M. and Gichuki, F. (1994) More People, Less Erosion: Environmental Recovery in Kenya, John Wiley, Chichester. – p. 8

Machakos – then and now

Iveti Hills June/July 1937

Iveti Hills January 1991

Population dynamics and resource demand

• Population in drylands significant and growing, despite environmental challenges

• 94% of dryland population currently live in developing countries (Noin, 1998)

resource demand on the rise• Age structure and demographic transition• Relationships between population,

resource demand, environment (Malthus, Boserup, etc.)

White, R.P. and Nackoney, J. (2003): Drylands, people, and ecosystem goods and services: a web-based geospatial analysis. World Resource Institute. – p. 5

White, R.P. and Nackoney, J. (2003): Drylands, people, and ecosystem goods and services: a web-based geospatial analysis. World Resource Institute. – p. 9

Average animal population growth rates per country

Source?

Source: http://proutworld.prout.org/features/images/pgrow3.jpg

Human well-being and desert vulnerability

• Human well-being in how far dependent on natural environment?

• Drylands as non-equilibrium ecosystems• Biophysical and socio-economic vulnerability• Vulnerability vs. resilience

Global climate change

Anthropogenic impact

• “Differential” vulnerability (of human communities)

Time

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Succession model

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State-and-transitionmodel

Threshold model

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Evolution of ecological paradigms

Importance of succession model

Succession model (Clements, 1916) Provided a planning and management tool for much of the past century

• management objective: achieving an equilibrium condition under an equilibrium grazing policy

• concept of carrying capacity: stocking rate at which sustainable grazing pressure is achieved

Source: Westoby, Walker and Noy-Meir, 1989: p. 266

Alternative models

Threshold model (Holling, 1973 ; May, 1977 ; Hurd & Wolf, 1974 ; Noy-Meir, 1975)– Boundaries separate multiple equilibrium states in time and

space– Sufficient modification of disturbance regime: threshold from one

stable state to an alternative stable state is crossed– Ball and cup analogy

Source: Briske, Fuhlendorf and Smeins, 2003: p. 604

Alternative models

State-and-transition model (Westoby, Walker, and Noy-Meir, 1989)

• Capacity and flexibility to integrate both equilibrium and non-equilibrium vegetation dynamics

• Multiple dimensions encompassed

Source: Briske, Fuhlendorf and Smeins, 2003: p. 604

Source: http://soils.usda.gov/use/worldsoils/mapindex/desert.html

Driving forces for foreseen changes

• Anthropogenic global warming: effect on drylands not yet clear (evidence for both increase and decrease in rainfall – depending on season and region)

• Natural climatic cycles based on global patterns of pressure cells: e.g. El Nino etc.

• Population growth: particularly in the developing world

• Economic globalization: winners and losers

Complication due to multiple exposure

Possible actions to be taken

• Poverty alleviation (esp. among vulnerable households and women)

• Strengthening adaptive capacities and local institutions (e.g. promoting diversity; facilitating flexible use of labor, etc.)

• “Partitioning” as a result of globalization = global version of oasis economy

2. Sustainability and human well-being in deserts

Supplementary

Concept of sustainability• Brundtland Report (1987): “development that meets the

needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”

• “Triple bottom line”: environment, economy, social equity • Keywords: carrying capacity, maximum sustainable yield

How does this concept apply to drylands?• Non-equilibrium dynamics• Pulse-reserve model in ecology (Noy-Meir, 1973)• Boom-and-bust economy

A new definition of sustainability for drylands? How to buffer the “bust” in a boom-and-bust economy?

Source: http://www.camelworld.com/images/PICT1505.JPG

Determinants of well-being in deserts

• Water availability"In every drop of water there is a grain of gold." (Uzbek proverb)

“By means of water, we give life to everything.” (Quran 21:30)

"You can live without love, but not without water" (Talmud)

• Water conveyance and other infrastructure (energy, transportation, markets)

• Policy framework (esp. water and land tenure), social protection etc.

The maintenance of ecosystem services

• How to value ecosystem services? – cost of substitution

• Are they economic goods or human rights?• Appropriate management decisions require

– reliable information on condition and trends of ecosystems

– knowledge on possible consequences of alternative choices

– enabling conditions to implement decisions

The evolution of traditional knowledge

• Traditional knowledge static or “backward”• Guiding strategies: flexibility and opportunism • Benefits from long presence and accumulated

“cultural wisdom” in very close contact with environment

• Solutions local in scale (e.g. rainwater harvesting) and site-specific

• Often sustainable, but… Do these strategies offer room for desired “development”???

Adaptation of new technologies

• Renewable energy? (wind farms; solar farms; etc.)

• Biotechnology? • Closed environments?• New technologies vs. socio-cultural background

(technologically suitable socially or culturally adapted)

• Maintenance issues

Capacity building for desert sustainability

• Combining traditional knowledge and scientific findings

• Not only bringing science to people: outreach, workshops, community involvement

• but also bringing people into science: providing opportunities for higher education for desert dwellers

Public participation and socio-economic organization

• Decentralization

• Empowerment of local people as decision-makers

• Participatory, “people-centered” appraisal techniques (Chambers etc.)

3. Closing remarks: options for action

Closing remarks: options for action

• What is economically feasible (different deserts in different part of the world have different possibilities) vs. what is ecologically desirable

• Preserving status quo in ecosystems vs. adapting societies to changes in them

• Self-sufficient desert livelihoods/economies vs. dependence on regional/global exchange processes (“partitioning”)

• Salvation through new technologies? e.g. desalinization of seawater

• Salvation through globalization? • Or “precautionary principle”?

Tourism

Energy exploitation: wind

Source: http://donb.furfly.net/photo_cd/l/b86.html

Energy exploitation: solar

KJC Operating Company, Mojave Desert, California

Oasis economy

Deserts – not a barriers but conduits for trade

Closed environments