Dennis K. Winters Chief, Office of Economic Advisors Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development
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Transcript of Dennis K. Winters Chief, Office of Economic Advisors Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development
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Wisconsin is Open for Business
February 8, 2013
WISCONSIN’SWISCONSIN’SCONSTRUCITONCONSTRUCITON
OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
Dennis K. WintersChief, Office of Economic AdvisorsWisconsin Department of Workforce Development
February 8, 2013
WISCONSIN’SWISCONSIN’SCONSTRUCTION CONSTRUCTION
OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
2013 Winter Convention
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Wisconsin is Open for Business
February 8, 2013
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FIRST OF ALL, YOU NEED TO UNDERSTAND WISCONSIN’S ECONOMY
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THE ECONOMY
HAS CHANGED
AND SO MUST YOU
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Average Real GDP Growth First 9 Quarters of Recovery
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0Pe
rcent
4
ECONOMIC RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES
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Wisconsin is Open for Business
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JOBS RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES
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Wisconsin is Open for Business
February 8, 2013
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ECONOMICOUTLOOK
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7Source: BEA, OEA
BUSINESS CYCLE SEVEREIT TOOK NINE QUARTERS TO RECOVER
Recovered
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REAL EARNINGS ARE FLAT
Wisconsin Real Average Annual Wage
$28,000
$30,000
$32,000
$34,000
$36,000
$38,000
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INTEREST INCOME TAKE HIT WITH LOW INTEREST RATES
Personal Interest Income
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
$1,500
Dec07
Mar08
Jun08
Sep08
Dec08
Mar09
Jun09
Sep09
Dec09
Mar10
Jun10
Sep10
Dec10
Mar11
Jun11
Sep11
Billi
ons
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HOME EQUITY WAS USED FOR CONSUMPTIONNOW PART OF DELEVERAGING
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111111
-100,000
-80,000
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000Ch
ange
ove
r Pri
or Y
ear $
M
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
REVOLVING CREDIT WAS USED FOR CONSUMPTIONNOW PART OF DELEVERAGING
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121212
Personal Savings, Billions of Dollars
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
200
0-I
200
0-III
200
1-I
200
1-III
200
2-I
200
2-III
200
3-I
200
3-III
200
4-I
200
4-III
200
5-I
200
5-III
200
6-I
200
6-III
200
7-I
200
7-III
200
8-I
200
8-III
200
9-I
200
9-III
201
0-I
201
0-III
2011
-I
NO SAVINGS – WAS USED FOR CONSUMPTIONNOW PART OF DELEVERAGING
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It is difficult to increase consumptionwhen you:
1. have stagnant income,2. are losing wealth,3. paying down debt,4. increasing savings,5. and are paying more for food and gas.
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CORPORATE PROFITS AT NEW RECORDSMOSTLY DUE TO COST CUTTING
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MANAGING RISK WHERE IS THE INCENTIVE TO EXPAND
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Change In Investment From 2007 4th Qtr
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100Bil
lions
of 20
05 $
Private investmentResidential
16
CORPORATE PROFITSBUILDING CASH HOARD
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INVESTMENT GROWTH IS IN PRODUCTIVITY, NOT EXPANSION
Source: BEA, OEA
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18Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Economic Research; OEA
EXTENDING CREDITBANKS ARE RETICENT TO LEND FUNDS
Reserves of Depository Institutions(billions of dollars)
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Breach May 2015
JOBS RECOVERYOUR BEST ESTIMATES PUT THE BREACH AT MAY 2015
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VEHICLE SALESCONTINUE STRONG
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HOUSING STARTSTRENDING HIGHER
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0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
2004M01 2006M01 2008M01 2010M01 2012M01
Wisconsin Housing Starts (thousands)
Source: U.S. Census
WISCONSIN HOUSING STARTSHOPEFULLY NOT A HEAD FAKE
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ARE THE GOOD DAYSGONE FOREVER?
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ARE THE GOOD DAYS GONE?PROBABLY FOR RESIDENTIAL
Source: U.S. Census
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2006 2011 $ Change % Change
Wisconsin $12.545 $3.846 $8.698 -69.3
M7 Region $4.572 $1.085 $3.488 -76.3
OUCH !
Source: Wisconsin Department of Revenue, Real Estate Value Data
Total New Construction Spending( $ billions )
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27Source: BEA, OEA
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Peak Trough % Change
Total Jobs 2,889,300 2,713,700 - 6.1
Construction 130,100 83,200 - 36.0
Milw MSA 33,900 17,200 - 49.2
* Peak Wisconsin construction employment in July 2004, trough in March 2012
OUCH !AGAIN
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW
Wisconsin Employment Through Recession
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Peak Trough % Change
Residential 4,088 3,125 - 23.4
Non-residential 811 655 - 19.2
Heavy Cnstructn 967 800 - 13.3
Trades 12,119 9,705 - 18.5
* Peak Wisconsin construction establishment in 2003, trough yet uncertain
OUCH !YET AGAIN
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW
Wisconsin Construction Establishments Through Recession
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Shar
e Union v. Non-Union Shares
Union YesUnion No
Source: U.S. Census; CPS-MORG
CHANGE IN REPRESENTATIONUNION v. MERIT SHOPS
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So, what will be the biggest socio-economic
policy challenge in the next 20 years?
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ELDERLY NUMBERS WILL SWELLWIDEN THE SIDEWALKS WILL YA !?
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OR PERHAPS THE MORE INTERGENERATIONAL VERSION
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QUANTITY
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WISCONSIN’S WORKFORCE GROWTHBECOMES FLAT
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Thou
sand
s
Population
Civilian Labor Force
Wisconsin Population and Labor Force
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BLS RAISED LFPR FOR THE FUTUREPARTICULARLY FOR OLDER COHORTS
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of the Census, OEA
Changes in LFPR by Age Cohort
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+
Constant2000201020202030
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WISCONSIN’S WORKFORCE HIGHER LFPRs OFFER LIMITED GAINS
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA
(30,000)
(10,000)
10,000
30,000
50,000
70,000
90,000
110,000
2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030
New BLS Plus 3% New BLS Plus 3% New BLS Plus 3%
Worker Difference from Census 2000
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LITTLE CHANGES EVEN WITH HIGHER LFPRRETIREMENTS SWAMP PARTICIPATION
Source: Bureau of the Census, DOA, OEA
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Thou
sand
s PopulationLabor force base caseBLS prj. changeElevated LFPR of 3 percentage points
Wisconsin Population and Labor Force
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NURSING WORKFORCE IN WISCONSIN DEMOGRAPHICS AT WORK
Source: Office of Economic Advisors
Wisconsin Nurses by Age
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
< 25 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75 +
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POPULATION PARTICIPATION FUNCTION OF RECESSION SEVERITY
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WORKFORCE PARTICIPATION TRENDS DWARF FLUCUATION
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IT’S THE YOUNG THAT ARE DELAYING ENTERING THE WORKFORCE
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CHANGING LFPR GREATLY ALTERS WORKER AGE MIX
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QUALITY
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"The days are over when you could walk into a paper mill with a high school diploma and run one of the machines."
– Patrick Schillinger, former Wisconsin Paper Council President, Center will teach paper-industry technology, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, JS Online, October 21, 2004.
NEW ECONOMY NEED FOR SKILLS
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TURN YOU LOOSE ON THIS BABYI DON’T THINK SO
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NEW ECONOMYSCARCITY OF SKILLED WORKERS
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan voiced his concern about a growing earnings gap between highly skilled and unskilled workers.
"It's a problem caused basically by our skill mix not keeping up with the technology that our capital stock requires," the Fed chairman said. . . .
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WORKFORCE TRENDSARE:
Unprecedented – we have never faced a declining workforce before;
Assured – demographics will change little;
Largely unalterable – demographics and migration patterns do not change abruptly.
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RAMIFICATIONS OF WORKFORCE TRENDS ARE:
Potentially devastating – without sufficient productivity gains the state’s economy will stagnate;
Necessitating a focus on talent – large investments in education and training are needed;
Requiring match – talent supply and industry demand must be matched or you lose both.
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Questions ?
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Dennis Winters
Phone: 608-267-3262
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.dwd.wisconsin.gov
OEA website: www.dwd.wisconsin.gov/oea
CONTACT INFORMATION