Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union

Lecture 3

Sociology SOCI 20182

Course website

http://course.health-studies.org/2010/

Basic population concepts

Population number and population distribution.

Distribution by Population Number, 1998

Distribution by Population Density 2000

Distribution by Population Density in Ukraine (persons per sq.km),

2001

Population growth

Population natural movement – population changes due to births and deaths as natural processes in contrast to ‘mechanical’ changes due to migration

Population growth can be expressed in absolute numbers.

Growth of Russian population from 1897 to 2002 (in million)

Red – urban population; Blue – rural population; Upper line - total

Population of Russia after 2000

140000

141000

142000

143000

144000

145000

146000

147000

148000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Po

pu

lati

on

(in

th

ou

san

d)

Source: Goskomstat Russia

Components of population growth – births, deaths and migration

Population growth between times T1 and T2 can be measured using the following balancing equation:

P2 = P1+ B – D + I – O, where P2 – population at time T2 P1 - population at time T1 B – number of births between T1 and T2 D – number of deaths between T1 and T2 I – number of immigrants between T1 and

T2 O – number of out-migrants (emigrants)

between T1 and T2

Growth of population in three FSU countries

Population changes in Russia and Ukraine

(population in million)

The concept of demographic rates

In demography rates typically represent “occurrence/exposure” ratios

Takes into account the size of population

Occurrence ofRisk the toExposure of years'-Person'

occurences ofNumber Rate

Rates are usually measured for specific period of time (period rates)

Growth rates in demography Population growth can be expressed using rates.

Helps to compare countries with different population numbers. Rates are measured for specific period of time (usually for one calendar year)

Crude Birth rate (CBR) – number of live births per 100,000 population during year X

Crude Death rate (CDR) - number of deaths per 100,000 population during year X

Rate of natural increase: CBR - CDR Rate of total increase: CBR – CDR + CMR CMR – crude migration rate per 100,000 = CRIM -

CROM CRIM – crude rate of In-migration; CROM – crude rate of

Out-migration. Both measured per 100,000 population.

Population decline or depopulation occurs when rate of total population increase becomes negative (population decrease)

Depopulation in Russia or the “Russian cross”

Depopulation of Russian regionsNatural increase per 1000, 2003

Administrative division in Russia

Types of regions Oblast – the most common type Kray – similar to oblast National republic – higher level of

autonomy National okrug – part of oblast, kray

or national republic Moscow and St. Petersburg are

counted separately by state statistics

New type of administrative division – federal okrug

Population growth rateDirect estimation

Annual population growth rate in percent, as listed in the CIA World Factbook (2006

estimate)

FSU countries experiencing population decline in 2006-2007

Belarus Estonia Latvia Lithuania Moldova Russia Ukraine

Percent growth in the FSU countries, 1999

Population structure Age and sex are the main components

of population structure Demographers commonly use

population pyramids to describe both age and sex distributions of populations. Youthful populations are represented by pyramids with a broad base of young children and a narrow apex of older people, and older populations are characterized by more uniform numbers of people in the age categories.

Population pyramid Russia, 2002

1500 1000 500 0 500 1000 1500

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Population, thousands

Men Women

Types of population pyramids

Young growing

population

Types of population pyramids

Aging population structure

Russia in 1989 and 2002

Russia in 2008

Source:Goskomstat

Russia

Other commonly used characteristics of population

Residence (urban or rural) Education Marital status (never married,

married, widowed, divorced) Race or ethnicity Citizenship

Percent urban population, 2000

Distribution by education status, Russia from 1959 to

2002

Education system in Russia (and most FSU countries)

Higher professional – more than 10 years of education (usually 15+) corresponds to college degree in the United States

Secondary vocational – 8 years of school + two years of professional education

Secondary general – 10 years of school

Basic general – 8 years of school Primary general – 4 years of school

Distribution by marital status per 1000 population 16+ years

Russia from 1989 to 2002

Distribution by ethnicity, Russia 2002

Nationalities of the Soviet Union: Police leaflet

Three the most common nationalities in Russia

Russian Ukrainian Tatar

National composition for population of Ukraine according to

2001 censusNationality 1989 2001

Ukrainians 72.7 77.8

Russians 22.1 17.3

Belarussians 0.9 0.6

Moldavians 0.6 0.5

Other 3.7 3.8

The part of those whose mother tongue is Ukrainian totals 67.5% of the population of Ukraine in 2001, this is by 2.8 percentage points more than in 1989. The percentage of those whose mother tongue is Russian totals 29.6% of the population (decrease by 3.2%).

Distribution by citizenshipRussia 2002

Changes in Russian population between 1989 and 2002

censuses Population decline – by 1,855,000 or 1.5%. The most rapid decline is observed during the last 10 years. From 1993 to 2006 population of Russia decreased by 4.5%. But population increase in Central and Southern federal okrugs from 1989 to 2002. However, after 1993 negative natural increase (decline) in all federal okrugs.

Non-uniformity in population distribution increased.

Stagnation of urbanization (deurbanization?)

Synthetic cohorts in demography

A hypothetical cohort of persons that is represented when data for a year or other brief period are treated as though they relate to a single cohort.

For example, the total fertility rate, which summarizes the age-specific birth rates for a population of women in a given year, may be assumed to represent the average total children born per woman for a synthetic cohort of women that passed through life bearing children at the given rates.

Synthetic or hypothetical cohorts are based on cross-sectional distributions

Demographic measures based on hypothetical cohorts are called period measures (e.g., period life tables)

Reading

Anderson, B. 2002. "Russia faces depopulation? Dynamics of population decline," Population and Environment 23(5): 437-64.