DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND
Demographic Trends “Where we go from here” Presented by: Robert M. Lefenfeld Principal, Real...
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Demographic Trends Demographic Trends “Where we go from “Where we go from here” here” Presented by: Robert M. Lefenfeld Principal, Real Property Research Group, Inc.
Transcript of Demographic Trends “Where we go from here” Presented by: Robert M. Lefenfeld Principal, Real...
Demographic TrendsDemographic Trends“Where we go from here”“Where we go from here”
Presented by:
Robert M. Lefenfeld
Principal, Real Property Research Group, Inc.
Where we go from here.Where we go from here.
Macro Demographic TrendsRecent Development TrendsProjected Growth PatternsImplications of Trends on Housing
Maryland Population Pyramid 2000-2010Maryland Population Pyramid 2000-2010
-500 -450 -400 -350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
0-4
'5-9
'10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census 2000
20102000
Change in Households by Age of Change in Households by Age of Household Head for Maryland, 2000 - 2010Household Head for Maryland, 2000 - 2010
23.9
-22.6-72.6
78.1
137.4
80.1
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Tho
usan
ds
< 25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45-54 55-64 65+
Source: The Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services
Maryland Population Pyramid 2010-2020Maryland Population Pyramid 2010-2020
-500 -450 -400 -350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
0-4
'5-9
'10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census 2000
20202010
Bob Lefenfeld:Bob Lefenfeld:
Change in Households by Age of Change in Households by Age of Household Head for Maryland, 2010 - 2020Household Head for Maryland, 2010 - 2020
-5.0
64.2
-32.2 -75.7
79.6
179.7
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Tho
usan
ds
< 25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45-54 55-64 65+
Source: The Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services
Change in Households by Age of Change in Households by Age of Household Head for Maryland, 2020 - 2030Household Head for Maryland, 2020 - 2030
-0.3-30.3
71.6
-34.5 -72.3
189.9
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Tho
usan
ds
< 25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45-54 55-64 65+
Source: The Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services
Maryland RegionsMaryland Regions
Job Growth by Md. RegionsJob Growth by Md. Regions
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Baltimore Region Lower Eastern Shore Southern MD
Upper Eastern Shore Western MD Suburban MD
Baltimore Region
Suburban MD
Source: Maryland Department of Labor
Permits by Md. RegionsPermits by Md. Regions
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Baltimore Region Low er Eastern Shore Southern MD Upper Eastern Shore Western MD Suburban MD
Baltimore Region
Suburban MD
Southern MD
Source: Maryland Department of Planning
Impact of Growth ControlsImpact of Growth Controls
Total Housing Units Permitted1990 - 2003
677 601721
2,103
1,763
2,208
2,552
1,891
1,5251,669
1,7981,903
2,667 2,747
1,983
1,5781,778
480572 504
656 640544642676
1,1251,235
986
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003(e)
Washington Co. Frederick Co.
Source: Maryland Department of Planning, RPRG
2000 Commutation Patterns by Md. 2000 Commutation Patterns by Md. RegionRegion
2000 In/FromBaltimore Region
Lower Eastern Shore
Southern MD
Upper Eastern Shore
Western MD
Suburban MD
out of state DC VA
Baltimore Region 91.3% 0.1% 0.3% 1.2% 0.1% 3.6% 2.8% 0.2% 0.5%Lower Eastern Shore 0.5% 87.3% 0.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.2% 9.3% 0.0% 2.0%Southern MD 2.5% 0.0% 88.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 3.3% 0.5% 2.6%Upper Eastern Shore 4.9% 4.3% 0.1% 80.4% 0.0% 0.5% 9.2% 0.1% 0.1%Western MD 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 74.2% 2.3% 22.8% 0.0% 0.3%Suburban MD 10.4% 0.0% 3.4% 0.2% 1.3% 72.3% 12.0% 4.2% 6.3%
Source: Maryland Department of Planning
Source: Maryland Department of Planning
Source: Metropolitan Washington COG
Source: Metropolitan Washington COG
Product ImplicationsProduct Implications
Demographically, Active Adult housing demand growing. – Much AA exurban locations since prime
suburban land premium in these markets. – Smaller, more expensive for sale housing in
urban infill areas.
– Locate close to home. 60% of 55 to 64 buyers buy within county they reside.
Second HomesSecond Homes
Buyers typically 60 years oldIncome $93,000.74 % vacation home, 23 %
investment property.2nd Home w/i 200 miles of primary
resident.
Source: National Association of Realtors
Demand for Rental Housing…Demand for Rental Housing…
Demand increase with echo boom and part of active adult population.
Affordability restricting some households from buying, especially if interest rates increase.
Tax credit primary housing program to address moderate income households.
Reinvestment in urban areas – (Mark to Market, HOPE VI)
Senior HousingSenior Housing
Demand is just starting to build.Evolution of rental housing from
small tax credit projects to larger market rate rental units.
Long term, more demand for integrated campus to serve seniors.
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