2/3:1/3 JEWISH MAJORITY

BURSTING THE DEMOGRAPHIC BUBBLE

FROM BASELESS-DEMOGRAPHIC FATALISM

TO DOCUMENTED-DEMOGRAPHIC OPTIMISM

Arab PopulationIn Judea, Samaria & Gaza

The Million Person Gap

PCBS2010 Population 4.15 Million

Bennett Zimmerman & Roberta Seid, Ph.D.Copyright 2009All Rights Reserved

Fewer Births

Net Emigiration

Jerusalem Arab PopulationDouble-Count

Residents Living Abroad

Study Result2010 Population 2.95 Million

Report prepared by:

The American-IsraelDemographic Research

Group(AIDRG)

USA Research TeamBennett ZimmermanRoberta Seid, Ph.D.Michael Wise, Ph.D.

Israel Research TeamYoram Ettinger

Brig. Gen (Ret.) David ShahafProf. Ezra SoharDr. David PassigAvraham ShvoutYakov Faitelson

PCBS: Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

Millions of People

Source: ICBS, Final Assessments of Population in Judea, Samaria & Gaza, 1996, Julia Zemel, December 22, 1997; Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics, Demographic Indicators of the Palestinian Territory, 1997 - 2015

1996 2007

2.1MN

3.8MN

Israeli and Arab Population DataJudea, Samaria and Gaza

(1996 & 2007)

Israel CentralBureau of Statistics

(ICBS)

Palestine CentralBureau of Statistics

(PCBS)

• PCBS 2007 population total for Judea & Samaria and Gaza was 3.8 million, 90% above the ICBS 1996 figure of 2.1 million.

The two central bureaus of statistics cannot be accurate since…• Such growth would indicate a 5.5%annual growth rate, almost twice as high as the leading countries in the world, such as Afghanistan, Sierra Leon, Somalia, Niger and Eritrea. The CIA ranks Gaza 5th and Judea&Samaria 38th in growth rate.

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

‘97 2000 2007 2010 2015

Millions of People

Arab Population in Judea&Samaria and Gaza1997 PCBS Census and Projection

(1997 - 2015)

Source: Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics, Demographic Indicators of the Palestinian Territory, 1997 - 2015

When 2007 PCBS population numbers (3.8 million) is combined with Israeli Arab population (1.4 million), the number of Arabs is now – supposedly - almost equal to the number of Jews west of the Jordan River. Given this rapid Arab growth, Israeli Jews would rapidly – supposedly - become a minority.

5.0

6.0• The December 1997 census is the basis for the current PCBS data.

• 1997 PCBS: 2.78 Million

• 2009 PCBS: 4 Million

•PCBS assumption: 3.1% annual population growth rate.

Population measurement requires accurate recording and verification of:

Beginning Base Population + Births - Deaths

+ Immigration - Emigration = Ending Base Population

Study investigated the 1997 PCBS numbers, factor by factor, against data released each year by other PA and Israeli governmental agencies.

Arab PopulationIn Judea, Samaria & Gaza

The Million Person Gap

Methodology

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0

Millions of People

Examination of the base population data(1997 PCBS Census)

December 1996PA Health Ministry

2.27MN

June 1997PCBS Census

2.78MN

2.111MN

December 1996ICBS Report

24K Half-Year Growth

210K Jerusalem Arabs

325K Residents Abroad

113K Additional Increase648K Total excess over ICBS

Before Census Census Era

A 30% inflation is documented in the 1997 census, which is the Palestinian base population data.3%-5% was the ICBS-PCBS gap until the 1997 census.ICBS’ accuracy is validated, when examined against Palestinian agencies.

“We counted 325,000 people living outside of the Palestinian

lands for more than one year, who carry Palestinian ID cards and can return at any time. This number is a minimum, and is not precise because we could not contact all the families living abroad.”

Hassan Abu LibdahHead of PCBSNews Conference held at Al-Bireh“The First Results of the Census”

February 26, 1998

Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics CensusInclusion of Residents Living Abroad

2011 - 0ver 400,000 overseas residents are included in the PCBS demographic count.According to internationally accepted demographic standards, overseas residents who are abroad for over a year are not counted demographically. Israel abides by such standards; the PCBS does not.

Census CoverageA comprehensive population enumeration always depends on the essence and the nature of the census. In general, population

censuses cover all persons residing within the limits of a certain country, at a specific time. A population census is based on the following:

1. De-facto Approach: Based on the enumeration of individuals according to their existence in the area of enumeration at census moment, regardless of their usual place of residence.

2. De-jure Approach: Based on the enumeration of individuals according to their usual place of residence, regardless of their presence at the census moment.

For the first ever Palestinian census, the de-facto approach was adopted with some exceptions. The census count included the following categories:

A – The Categories underwent complete data collection.1. All persons present in the Palestinian territories on the census reference date, irrespective of nationality, purpose of stay and

place of residence in the Palestinian territories.2. All temporarily living abroad (for one year prior to the night of the reference date) and who have a usual place of residence

in the Palestinian territories. Those persons are enumerated as parts of their households.

3. All Palestinians studying abroad irrespective of the study period and the period of stay abroad along with all Palestinian detainees in the Israeli jails regardless of the detention period.

B – Palestinian abroad: Categories underwent data collection on their numbers and sex only This category includes Palestinians who live abroad for more than one year and who have a usual place of residence in the Palestinian territories and have identity cards (except for students and detainees enumerated in the previous category) irrespective of the purpose of stay abroad.

http://www.pcbs.org/phc_97/phc_covr.aspx

Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics CensusInclusion of Residents Living Abroad

Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics, 2007Census Coverage (per PCBS website)

• “The PHC-2007 has been conducted on the basis of de-facto, taking into consideration minor local circumstances.”

• “This approach is identical to the implementation of PHC-1997.”

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0ICBS 1996+ 8 Years

Less deaths and emigration

CEC October 2004 Voting Report • 1.3MN Eligible Voters Resident in Territories

• 200K Eligible Voters Abroad

87%Resident

13%Abroad

1.5MN

1.3MN

1.85MN

1.3M1.3MN

PCBS Forecast(2004)

Millions of PeoplePA Central Election Commission (CEC)

Eligible Adult (18 year old and older) DocumentationOctober 2004 & January 2005 Voting Reports

The October 2004 CEC Voting Report, with specific information on 1.3 million adults living in the Territories, undermines the original 1997 PA Projection and confirms that the 1997 Census Base included Palestinians living abroad. The residential base measured by the ICBS in the mid-1990s produces an exact match with the 1.3 million residents found on current CEC voter rolls.

“Adults expected to be 18 and above by 2004”

PCBS Birth Numbers

vs. Births documented by PA Ministry of Health2010-1997

20052004 2003 2002

2001

2000

1999 19981997

Thousands of Births/Year

A 40,000 annual gap between PCBS births and PA Ministry of Health recorded births. Documentation covers village mid-wives and clinics. Home deliveries: around 5% only.Documentation is essential for daily movement, for using international passages (1,100,000 annual exits/entries), for UNRWA child allowances, for access to Israel (work, education, business, health, BG Airport, recreation, visits).

PCBS PA Ministry of Health

2006 2007 2008

120

80

40

0

160

2009 2010

120

80

40

Births/YearBirths documented by PA Ministry of Health

confirmed by PA Ministry of Education Records2010-1997

160

= PCBS numbers

= PA Ministry of Health

documentation

Thousands of Births/Year

PA Ministry Of Education

1st Grade Students6 Years Later

About 100% of 6 year old children register to first grade, according to the World Bank, European and Israeli studies. A high dropout rate starts at 3rd grade.PA Ministry of Health’s documentation of births is compatible with PA Ministry of Education’s documentation of first graders registration (6 years later). Both are well below PCBS numbers.Arab fertility decline in Judea & Samaria: Annual births stabilization between 1995 and 2010.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20101997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

2003 2004

120

80

40

160

200420032002200120001999199819971996

0

Net Entries/ExitsIn Thousands/Year

Migration/YearPCBS 1997 Net-Immigration Assumption

PCBS population numbers included an assumption of 45,000 net immigration annually, beginning 2001 until 2015.The eruption of Intifadah II in Sept. 2000 has precluded net immigration, but Israel’s demographic establishment never examined the PCBS and was unaware of its assumptions.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

120

80

40

160

Net Entries/ExitsIn Thousands/Year

0

= PCBS 1997 Projection

= Actual Israel Border Data

Migration/YearPCBS 1997 Net-Immigration Assumption

VS

Actual Israel Border Net-Emigration Data2010-1997

The PCBS 1997 assumption of net-immigration into Judea, Samaria and Gaza: 45,000 annually since 2001! Border data show net-emigration of 10,000+ persons each year since 1997: 10,000 - 2004, 16,000–2005, 25,000–2006, 25,000–2007, 28,000–2008 (17,000 from J&S), 28,000-2009 (17,000 from J &S), 27,500 - 2010 (16,500 from J&S). Since 1950, only 6 years featured net-immigration. Our assumption: 11,000 annual net-emigration documented by the European observers at the Rafiah international passage have been factored-in annually.

Post Oslo

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Migration to Israel’s Green LineLegal migrants only – Double Count

1993 - 2003

From 1993 – 2003, over 150,000 residents of Judea & Samaria and Gaza received Israeli IDsunder family reunification programs (105,000 since 1997). They are doubly-counted (as “GreenLine” Arabs and as West Bankers. This phenomenon was stopped by a 2003 amendment to theCitizenship Law (Source: November 2003 Population Authority, Israel Ministry of InteriorReport.)

Study ResultsYear by Year Detail

Population models should be transparent with clearly defined starting, intermediate and ending points, so that researchers can assess the data, factor by factor. Many current estimates use information released by the PCBS to build population forecasts.

Study Results: 1997-2009

Population models should be transparent with clearly defined starting, intermediate and ending points, so that researchers can assess the data, factor by factor. Many current estimates use – without scrutiny - information released by the PCBS to build population forecasts.

PCBS – 2.5MN;66% “inflation”

PCBS – 4.10MN;1.25MN gap

PCBS – 1.7MN

Millions of People

4.0

3.5

3.0

PCBS Numbers: 3.83 Million Total2.42 Million J&S1.41 Million Gaza

2.5

2.0

PA MOH Births Difference: 238K

Birth Alterations Difference: 70K

“The 1.34 MillionPerson Gap”

Deaths Difference: 33K

Immigration &Emigration Error Difference: 310K

Migration to Israel Difference: 105K

Jerusalem Arabs Difference: 210K

ResidentsLiving Abroad Difference: 325K

Jump Over ICBS Difference: 113K

AIDRG Findings: 2.49 Million Total1.41 Million J&S1.08 Million Gaza

}Errors in PCBS Projection

The Million Person Gap(By Mid-Year 2004)

Population BreakdownIsrael, Judea, Samaria and Gaza

(2010)

JewsJewsJews

West BankArabs

IsraeliArabsGaza

Arabs

IsraeliArabs

West BankArabs

IsraeliArabs

Israel

81% Jewish

4:1 Jewish/Arab Ratio

Israel& J&S

66% Jewish

2:1 Jewish/Arab RatioSince the 1960s

IsraelJ&S

and Gaza

57% Jewish

3:2 Jewish/Arab Ratio

Jewish Affiliated

Judea & SamariaTrend of Population Growth

(1950-2010)

1950 1960 1970

Jordanian Period 1950-1967 Low population Growth rate 0.9% High fertility rate High infant mortality rate High Net-Emigration

Israeli Administration ’67-92Pre-Fall Surge:Health ImprovementsInfant mortality declinesLife expectancy increasesNet-emigration decreases

1980 1990 2000

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

• 1992-2008 -- Population Growth rate 1.8% -- Declining Birthrate

--High Emigration

--Family Planning --Teen pregnancy declines

--Record High Median Wedding Age

--Expanded Education --Record divorce rate --From rural to poor urban

As evidenced by global precedents of integration between Western World and ThirdWorld societies, an initial significant growth is a prelude to a substantial decline.Growth rates in J&S are experiencing the normal stages of population development.Growth rates for J&S are approaching levels of a developed Western society and trend toward Israeli Jews growth rates. J&S fertility rate – 3.2 births per woman and declining.Fertility rates decline in all Muslim countries: Iran – 1.7 births per woman, Egypt – 2.5, Jordan (twin sister of J&S) – less than 3, Syria – 3.5, No. Africa – 1.9, Gulf – 2.5, etc.

Annual Population Growth Rates

2010

10

Total Fertility RateBirths/Woman

8

6

4

2

0

Total Fertility Rates (TFR) Gap “Green Line” Jews and Moslems

1960 – 2009From 6 births – to 0.6 births - gap

Source: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics

Forecasts for Israel apply past high fertility rates to future forecast, despite long-term decline in Israeli Arab fertility. Fertility gap plunged from 6 births per woman to 0.6.2009 – Arab fertility rate declines to 3.5 births per woman; Jewish fertility rate grows to 2.9.

9.23

1960/1964

3.39

8.47

1965/1969

3.36

1970/1974

3.28

1975/1979

3.00

5.54

1980/1984

2.80

4.70

1985/1989

2.79

4.67

1990/1994

2.62

4.67

1995/1999

2.62

4.36

2004

2.71

Jews Moslems

7.25

9.22

2.93.5

2009

1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2009

Source: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics

Since 1995 (80,400), annual Jewish births have increased by 56% (125,500) Since 1995 (36,500), annual Arab births have increased by 11% (40,700)In 1995 – 2.3 Jewish births per 1 Arab birth. In 2010 – 3.1 jewish births per 1 Arab birth.1995 Jewish births - 69% of total births. 2010 Jewish births – 76% of total births.

100

Thousands of Births

80

60

40

20

0

80.4

36.5

88.3

36.2

91.3

38.8

92.6

39.4

95.6

40.8

95.2

41.4

98.6

40.9

103.6

41.4

104.4

40.9

105.2

38.8

109.2

39 39

112

Jewish Demographic MomentumAnnual Number of Jewish/Arab Births

1995-2010

121

39

125.5

40.7

Jews Arabs

2010

Children per Family

8

6

4

2

0

“Gallup” Survey on Ideal Family SizeConvergence in Fertility Intentions

Source: Gallup News Service, “Attitudes Toward Family Size Among Palestinians and Israelis”, Lydia Saad, March 17 2006

Desired family size is now the same for Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs

Young West Bank Arabs desire a family size only one-half a child higher than young Israelis

IsraelJews

What is the ideal number of children in a family?

3.06

3.73

IsraelArabs

4.52

West Bank Arabs

3.683.88

5.26

3.593.68 3.853.52

4.55 4.40 4.17

5.07

Ort

hod

ox

Tra

dit

ion

al

Sec

ula

r

50+

30-4

9

20-2

9

15-1

9

50+

30-4

9

20-2

9

15-1

9

“Gallup” Survey on Ideal Family SizeConvergence in Fertility Intentions

“There is not a large difference [in fertility intentions] in a region where fertility could be a potent political tool. . . The possibility that the once burgeoning Palestinian Arab population in Israel, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip will eventually be the majority in that region has been widely accepted as a looming threat to Israel. . . However the assumption that Palestinians will eventually out-number the Jewish population in the region has come under recent criticism.

“The recent Gallup data is instructive because there is clearly an element of personal choice in having children, and thus Gallup finds strong evidence that people’s preferred family size has a strong bearing on actual fertility rates. Gallup has been measuring American’s notion of ideal number of children since 1936, the trend lines for preferred number of children and the U.S. are quite parallel.

“Gallup finds no difference in preferred number of children by age in Israel, but does among [younger] Palestinians.

“Gallup” Comments

-- Lydia Saad, “Attitudes Toward Family Size Among Palestinians and Israelis”, Gallup News Service, March 17 2006

Fertility Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: JewsIsrael’s Official Forecast

(2000 - 2025)

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

2000 - 05 2021 - 25

2.6 2.6

2.4

2.1

Total Fertility Rates

The ICBS assumed Jewish fertility rates (births expected per woman) would decrease from2.6 in 2000 to 2.4 in 2025.

Net Immigration was expected to drop from 10,000/year to 7,000/year in the high caseand 4,000/year to -2,000 emigration in the low case

High Scenario

Medium Scenario

Low Scenario

Actual Fertility vs. Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Jews (2000 - 2025)

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

2000 - 05 2021 - 25

2.6 2.6

2.4

2.1

Actuals2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2009 2.66 2.64 2.73 2.71 2.77 2.8 2.9

Actual fertility rates for the Jewish sector were higher - annually - than the highest rates Considered by the ICBS in its forecast.

Total Fertility Rates

Fertility Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Israel MoslemsIsrael’s Official Forecast

(2000 - 2025)

3.8

2.1

The ICBS assumed Moslem fertility rates (births expected per woman) would remainstable at 4.7 in the high case scenario and gradually drop to 2.6 in the low case scenario

No immigration or emigration scenarios were considered for the sector

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

2000 - 05 2021 - 25

2.6

4.50

4.74.7

Total Fertility Rates

High Case Scenario

Medium Case Scenario

Low Case Scenario

Actuals vs. Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Israel Moslems (2000 - 2025)

3.8

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

2000 - 05 2021 - 25

2.6

4.50

4.74.7

Total Fertility Rates

Actuals

2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2009Moslems 1,090 83% 4.74 4.58 4.50Christians 116 9% 2.55 2.29 2.31Druze 112 8% 3.07 2.77 2.85

Total Arab 1,318 4.40 4.22 4.17 3.99 3.72 3.68 3.5

Moslem

Total Arab

Actual fertility rates for Moslems (especially) and for Arabs were decreasing 20 years faster than ICBS projections.

Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt, American Enterprise Institute “None of the Team members happen to be professional demographers,

but they caught the demographic profession asleep at the switch. Serious internal inconsistencies are evident in the data and estimates on the current demographic situation in the PA areas and this report brilliantly reviews these. Further, the conclusions of this report are not only plausible but quite persuasive.

• Why? Because it relies upon rigorous logic and simple, but very powerful, arithmetic to reach its results. And because this arithmetic offers internally consistent reconstructions of overall trends the findings look not only defensible, but really quite robust. Second, this study should be carefully read by professional demographers and I hope it will impel, not only local, but also international statistical organizations to look at the PA demographic situation a little bit more carefully than they have been doing.“

West Bank & Gaza Education Sector AnalysisThe World Bank, September 7, 2006

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWESTBANKGAZA/Resources/EducationSectorAnalysisSept06.pdf The enrollment rate for grade 1 is almost 100%.PCBS projected a 24% increase in age 6 during 1999-2005

(almost 4% population growth rate expected).Enrollment to 1 grade decreased by 8% (page 8).32% gap cause: fertility decline and emigration increase.Higher education enrollment doubled during last decade.

44% of 18-21 age group were in full-time education in 2004. Similar enrolment by refugees and non-refugees.

22% of 25-29 year old women have post-primary education, compared with 10% among 45-49 year old women.

UNESCO’s Director General, May 22, 2007: “an abrupt slowdown in the rate of growth... also in many countries where women have only limited access to education and employment... There is not the slightest reason to assume that the decline in fertility will miraculously stop just at replacement level (2.1 births per woman)...”

UN Population Division: Sharp decline in Muslim fertility rates – except Yemen and Afghanistan – is mostly responsible for a 25% reduction in population projections.

Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC: “[AIDRG] caught the demographic profession asleep at the switch.