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Demographic Trends: A brief overview. 2 1991 2006 2021 FemalesMales Province Source: Department of...
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Demographic Trends: A brief overview
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Transcript of Demographic Trends: A brief overview. 2 1991 2006 2021 FemalesMales Province Source: Department of...
Demographic Trends:
A brief overview
2
1991
0-4
15-19
30-34
45-49
60-64
75-79
90+
0-4
15-19
30-34
45-49
60-64
75-79
90+
2006
2021
FemalesFemalesMalesMales
0-4
15-19
30-34
45-49
60-64
75-79
90+
Province
Source: Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006, medium scenario, data rounded
The demographic challenge
3
1991
Province excl. CMA
0-4
15-19
30-34
45-49
60-64
75-79
90+
0-4
15-19
30-34
45-49
60-64
75-79
90+
2006
2021
FemalesFemalesMalesMales
0-4
15-19
30-34
45-49
60-64
75-79
90+
Province
Source: Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006, medium scenario, data rounded
MalesMales FemalesFemales
The demographic challenge
4
1991
Communities5,000+ people *
0-4
15-19
30-34
45-49
60-64
75-79
90+
0-4
15-19
30-34
45-49
60-64
75-79
90+
2006
FemalesFemalesMalesMales
Source: Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006
MalesMales FemalesFemales
Province
* Cities and communities in the St. John’s CMA are not included.
5
1991
Communities2,500-4,999 people *
0-4
15-19
30-34
45-49
60-64
75-79
90+
0-4
15-19
30-34
45-49
60-64
75-79
90+
2006
FemalesFemalesMalesMales MalesMales FemalesFemales
Province
Source: Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006
* Cities and communities in the St. John’s CMA are not included.
6
1991
Communities1,000-2,499 people *
0-4
15-19
30-34
45-49
60-64
75-79
90+
0-4
15-19
30-34
45-49
60-64
75-79
90+
2006
FemalesFemalesMalesMales MalesMales FemalesFemales
Province
Source: Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006
* Cities and communities in the St. John’s CMA are not included.
7
1991
Communities < 1,000 people *
0-4
15-19
30-34
45-49
60-64
75-79
90+
0-4
15-19
30-34
45-49
60-64
75-79
90+
2006
FemalesFemalesMalesMales MalesMales FemalesFemales
Province
* Cities and communities in the St. John’s CMA are not included.
Source: Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006
Key Demographic Change:Declining School Enrolment
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
CMA non-CMA
1986139,378
200774,304
1992121,772
Source: Community Accounts
202155,500
Enrolment projections estimated by Rural
Secretariat based on historical trends
Key Demographic Change:Declining Youth (Ages 15-29)
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
CMA non-CMA
1986161,900 1992
152,200
200794,600
202168,900
Source: Statistics Canada and Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006, medium scenario
Key Demographic Change:Declining Child Bearing Age Population (Ages 15-49)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
CMA non-CMA
1986314,500
2007245,500
2021183,600
1992329,000
Source: Statistics Canada and Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006, medium scenario
Key Demographic Change:Declining Labour Supply (Ages 15-64)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
CMA non-CMA
1986378,800
2007359,800
2021305,200
1992397,600
Source: Statistics Canada and Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006, medium scenario
Key Demographic Change:More Seniors
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
CMA non-CMA
198650,300
199256,700
200770,600
2021118,000
Source: Statistics Canada and Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006, medium scenario
Challenges and Opportunities
• Fewer children
– School closures or opportunity to re-think how we provide
education services?
• Fewer workers
– Labour shortages or job opportunities for younger workers?
• More seniors
– More demand for government services or new business
opportunities?
• Changes at community level
– Fewer leaders and volunteers (e.g., town councils, fire protection)
or opportunity for communities to share more services?
14
Rural Secretariat’sCitizen and Community Engagement
• Rural Secretariat is engaging broad range of citizens
• Municipal leaders, youth, community groups, business
owners, seniors, etc.
• Objectives – build capacity and transfer knowledge
• Focus on long term planning, not short term reactions
• Common themes and findings
• Youth have strong views – less caught up in the “way it was”
• Broad understanding of the need for change
• Discussions are based on possibility – not complaints
Rural Secretariat
Executive Council
Tel: (709) 729-0168
Fax: (709)729-1673
E-mail: [email protected]
www.gov.nl.ca/rural
