Demographic Study Update December 2013 · Introduction and Report Structure The purpose of this...

Larkspur-Corte Madera School District

Demographic Study Update December 2013

Prepared by:

School Facility Consultants1303 J Street, Suite 500 Sacramento CA 95814916.441.5063 ph 916.441.2848 fax

www.s-f-c.org

Larkspur-Corte Madera School District Demographic Study Update

ContentsIntroduction and Report Structure

Content/Organization DSU-1Assumptions DSU-1

Step One: Enrollment History and Student Progression

Enrollment History DSU-2Student Progression DSU-3Kindergarten DSU-3SP Projection DSU-4

Step Two: Birth Rates and Migration Factors

Historical and Projected Birth Data DSU-5Birth Capture Rate DSU-7Migration Rate DSU-9Migration Projection DSU-11

Step Three: Housing Development

Student Generation Rates DSU-14Housing DSU-15Migration Projection with Housing DSU-16Comparison DSU-19

Page DSU-1December 2013


Introduction and Report StructureThe purpose of this Demographic Study Update (Update) is to analyze the changes in enrollment and related trends of the Larkspur-Corte Madera School District (District) since the preparation of the last study, and provide updated student enrollment projections for planning purposes.

Factors that affect student enrollment such as births, migration, and residential development rates change as economic and other conditions change in the District. As a result, the enrollment projections identified in this Update are subject to adjustment, and should be reexamined and modified when appropriate.

Content/Organization

The Update is organized in the following structure:Step One: Enrollment History and Student ProgressionStep Two: Birth Rates and Migration FactorsStep Three: Housing Development

Step One identifies the District’s historical enrollment trends, and includes a student progression enrollment projection, which advances current students through the grades with no adjustment factors. Step Two identifies some of the various factors that impact student movement through the grades, including an analysis of birth rates, the implementation of the Transitional Kindergarten program, and general migration trends exclusive of anticipated new housing development. Three scenarios are reviewed, low, moderate and high. Finally, Step Three layers in the factor of new residential housing development planned within the District with updated Student Generation Rates (SGRs).

Assumptions

The Demographic Study Update contemplates a range of projection scenarios. The assumptions for the low, moderate, and high factors are described below.

Low Enrollment ProjectionBirth Capture Rates utilizing 8 years worth of historical dataMigration Rates utilizing 7 years worth of historical dataHousing Units utilizing an estimate of 278 new units over the next 10 years

Moderate Enrollment ProjectionBirth Capture Rates utilizing 4 years worth of historical dataMigration Rates utilizing 10 years worth of historical dataHousing Units utilizing an estimate of 278 new units over the next 10 years

High Enrollment ProjectionBirth Capture Rates utilizing 2 years worth of historical dataMigration Rates utilizing 3 years worth of historical dataHousing Units utilizing an estimate of 278 new units over the next 10 years



Step One: Enrollment History and Student ProgressionEnrollment History

The Larkspur-Corte Madera School District has experienced steady enrollment growth over the last 20 years. Table 1 and Figure 1 demonstrate the growth.

Table 1: Enrollment History

Figure 1: Historical Enrollment by Grade Level

The enrollment projection methodology presented in the Update utilizes a basic student progression as a foundation, then applies modifications for birth rates, migration, and housing.

Grade 93-‐‑94 94-‐‑95 95-‐‑96 96-‐‑97 97-‐‑98 98-‐‑99 99-‐‑00 00-‐‑01 01-‐‑02 02-‐‑03 03-‐‑04 04-‐‑05 05-‐‑06 06-‐‑07 07-‐‑08 08-‐‑09 09-‐‑10 10-‐‑11 11-‐‑12 12-‐‑13 13-‐‑14

K 92 93 100 84 106 115 93 109 112 96 117 144 134 161 138 155 134 174 146 183 1961 98 96 96 96 89 117 122 98 109 123 97 118 136 131 155 137 153 134 165 144 1622 95 97 91 95 99 91 116 119 95 107 119 95 124 138 135 155 140 159 143 165 1463 101 97 98 98 91 104 84 111 107 95 104 128 107 128 147 140 158 144 165 154 1724 100 100 96 98 101 90 112 84 112 106 96 104 132 116 127 153 137 152 142 156 1645 96 101 94 94 99 103 92 107 83 114 114 98 105 128 120 132 150 141 151 144 1636 100 103 98 98 101 114 100 94 114 89 121 115 107 113 133 126 140 154 149 150 1547 120 94 106 100 107 104 117 97 96 126 92 122 126 114 110 143 127 144 160 145 1558 90 118 86 106 101 106 104 112 98 96 134 99 131 121 108 116 141 128 142 162 150

Total K-‐‑4 486 483 481 471 486 517 527 521 535 527 533 589 633 674 702 740 722 763 761 802 840

Total 5-‐‑8 406 416 384 398 408 427 413 410 391 425 461 434 469 476 471 517 558 567 602 601 622

Total K-‐‑8 892 899 865 869 894 944 940 931 926 952 994 1,023 1,102 1,150 1,173 1,257 1,280 1,330 1,363 1,403 1,462

486

483

481

471

486

517

527

521

535

527

533 589 633 674

702

740

722 763

761

802

840

406

416

384

398 408 427

413

410

391

425 461 434 469 476 471 517

558 567

602 601 622

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

93-‐‑94

94-‐‑95

95-‐‑96

96-‐‑97

97-‐‑98

98-‐‑99

99-‐‑00

00-‐‑01

01-‐‑02

02-‐‑03

03-‐‑04

04-‐‑05

05-‐‑06

06-‐‑07

07-‐‑08

08-‐‑09

09-‐‑10

10-‐‑11

11-‐‑12

12-‐‑13

13-‐‑14

Enrollm

ent

School Year

5-‐‑8 Enrollment K-‐‑4 Enrollment



Figure 2: Kindergarten Enrollment History

92 93 100

84

106 115

93

109 112

96

117

144 134

161

138

155

134

174

146

183 196

0

50

100

150

200

250

93-‐‑94 94-‐‑95 95-‐‑96 96-‐‑97 97-‐‑98 98-‐‑99 99-‐‑00 00-‐‑01 01-‐‑02 02-‐‑03 03-‐‑04 04-‐‑05 05-‐‑06 06-‐‑07 07-‐‑08 08-‐‑09 09-‐‑10 10-‐‑11 11-‐‑12 12-‐‑13 13-‐‑14

Kindergarten Enrollm

ent

School Year

Student Progression

The Student Progression (SP) method simply advances the existing students one grade per year. By utilizing this basic methodology we get an idea of what the enrollment would look like without the influence of any factors, such as birth rates providing the number of new Kindergarten students or new housing developments. SP is the basic building block for the projection methodologies examined in the Update. This base model is then modified as described in Steps Two and Three.

Kindergarten

Kindergarten class sizes have a large impact upon future enrollments in this methodology, as Kindergarten class sizes result in larger or smaller overall enrollments as they are repeated through the years. Figure 2 illustrates the historical Kindergarten enrollment within the District.

With the implementation of Transitional Kindergarten in the 2012-13 school year, the progression of the students from Kindergarten becomes slightly modified in the model. An estimated number of the Transitional Kindergarten students will not matriculate into 1st grade, and therefore, in our models, are not progressed.



SP Projection

The SP model is presented in Table 3 and Figure 4.

Table 2: Projected Enrollment – Straight Progression

Figure 3: Projected Enrollment – Straight Progression

Actual2013-‐‑14 2014-‐‑15 2015-‐‑16 2016-‐‑17 2017-‐‑18 2018-‐‑19 2019-‐‑20 2020-‐‑21 2021-‐‑22 2022-‐‑23 2023-‐‑24

K 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 1961 162 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 1752 146 162 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 1753 172 146 162 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 1754 164 172 146 162 175 175 175 175 175 175 1755 163 164 172 146 162 175 175 175 175 175 1756 154 163 164 172 146 162 175 175 175 175 1757 155 154 163 164 172 146 162 175 175 175 1758 150 155 154 163 164 172 146 162 175 175 175

Total K-‐‑4 840 851 854 883 896 896 896 896 896 896 896

Total 5-‐‑8 622 636 653 645 644 655 658 687 700 700 700

Total K-‐‑8 1,462 1,487 1,507 1,528 1,540 1,551 1,554 1,583 1,596 1,596 1,596

Projected Enrollment -‐‑ Straight ProgressionGrade

892

899

865

869 894 944

940

931

926 952 994 1,023 1,102

1,150

1,173 1,257

1,280

1,330

1,363

1,403

1,462

1,487

1,507

1,528

1,540

1,551

1,554

1,583

1,596

1,596

1,596

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

93-‐‑94

94-‐‑95

95-‐‑96

96-‐‑97

97-‐‑98

98-‐‑99

99-‐‑00

00-‐‑01

01-‐‑02

02-‐‑03

03-‐‑04

04-‐‑05

05-‐‑06

06-‐‑07

07-‐‑08

08-‐‑09

09-‐‑10

10-‐‑11

11-‐‑12

12-‐‑13

13-‐‑14

14-‐‑15

15-‐‑16

16-‐‑17

17-‐‑18

18-‐‑19

19-‐‑20

20-‐‑21

21-‐‑22

22-‐‑23

23-‐‑24

K-‐‑8 Enrollment

School Year

Actual Projected



Step Two: Birth Rates and Migration Factors Historical and Projected Birth Data

Births are an important factor to consider in projecting the enrollment of a District as they are used to project the number of Kindergarten-aged students the District may expect to have within its’ boundaries over the planning period.

The California Department of Finance tracks historical county birth rates for Marin County and projects ten years of future birth rates for the county. These projections are shown in Figure 4. The Department of Finance projects that the county births will remain relatively flat over the next decade.

Figure 4: County Births and Projected Births

Birth data by ZIP codes serves as a better approximation than county birth rates as they represent demographic trends that are more localized, and therefore representative, of the population served. The California Department of Health collects births by ZIP codes throughout California, including 94925 and 94939, which are ZIP codes the District serves. Historical birth rates for these ZIP codes are shown in Figure 5.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020



Figure 5: ZIP Code Births

159 170

164 172

149

175

154

172 160

194 199 199 188

180 189

180 174

167 172

158

140 149 147

0

50

100

150

200

250 1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

The Department of Health does not project future birth rates by ZIP code, so the percent increase (decrease) in the projected trend of county birth rates was utilized to project future birth rates within the ZIP codes served by the District (Figure 6). Since county birth rates are expected to remain relatively flat within Marin County, this same trend is translated to ZIP code births.

Figure 6: ZIP Code Births and Projected Births Using County Percentage Changes

0

50

100

150

200

250

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021



Birth Capture Rate

In the most basic SP scenario shown earlier in the report, Kindergarten enrollment is repeated from the previous year. However, in all future scenarios evaluated in this Update, Kindergarten enrollment is derived by (1) calculating the historic birth-attendance rate (Kindergarten enrollment divided by the number of births five years earlier) and (2) applying that birth-attendance rate to the number of births five years prior to the applicable projected enrollment year. This is known as a Birth Capture Rate.

This relationship between births and Kindergarten enrollment five years later is shown in Figure 7. The District recently began serving Transitional Kindergarten (TK) students in the 2012-13 school year, which increased the size of the Kindergarten classes the District serves. To control for this factor the Transitional Kindergarten is subtracted, so that the capture ratio compares like-for-like scenarios of students. In the first year the District continued to serve 12 months worth of students between TK and Kindergarten, so no students are taken out. In the next year (2013-14), however, TK students from the previous year transitioned to Kindergarten, so the TK students from 2012-13 are subtracted out so that they are not counted a second time in the ratio.

Because Birth Capture Rates can fluctuate over time, three time horizons were considered to project future enrollment. The Birth Capture Rate that considered two years of historical data produces the highest capture rate, so this trend was paired with the high enrollment projection. The Birth Capture Rate that considered eight years of historical data produces the lowest capture rate, so this was paired with the low projection. The Birth Capture Rate that considered four years of historical data produces a capture rate in the middle of the two above rates, so it was utilized for the moderate projection.

Figure 7: Births Compared to Kindergarten Enrollment 5 Years Later

159 170

164 172

149

175

154

172 160

194 199 199 188

180 189

180 174 167 172

158

140 149 147

93 100

84

106 115

93

109 112

96

117

144 134

161

138

155

134

174

146

183 186

0

50

100

150

200

250

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Births Kindergarten Enrollment 5 Years Later with TK Modification



Table 3 shows the historical Birth Capture Rates and Figure 8 shows the Birth Capture Rate trended over time.

Table 3: Birth Capture Rate

Birth Year

Zip Code Births

Annual Change

Kindergarten Year

Kindergarten Enrollment

Annual Change

Kindergarten Capture Rate

Kindergarten Capture Rate as %

1989 159 1994-‐‑95 93 0.5849 58.49%1990 170 11 1995-‐‑96 100 7 0.5882 58.82%1991 164 -‐‑6 1996-‐‑97 84 -‐‑16 0.5122 51.22%1992 172 8 1997-‐‑98 106 22 0.6163 61.63%1993 149 -‐‑23 1998-‐‑99 115 9 0.7718 77.18%1994 175 26 1999-‐‑00 93 -‐‑22 0.5314 53.14%1995 154 -‐‑21 2000-‐‑01 109 16 0.7078 70.78%1996 172 18 2001-‐‑02 112 3 0.6512 65.12%1997 160 -‐‑12 2002-‐‑03 96 -‐‑16 0.6000 60.00%1998 194 34 2003-‐‑04 117 21 0.6031 60.31%1999 199 5 2004-‐‑05 144 27 0.7236 72.36%2000 199 0 2005-‐‑06 134 -‐‑10 0.6734 67.34%2001 188 -‐‑11 2006-‐‑07 161 27 0.8564 85.64%2002 180 -‐‑8 2007-‐‑08 138 -‐‑23 0.7667 76.67%2003 189 9 2008-‐‑09 155 17 0.8201 82.01%2004 180 -‐‑9 2009-‐‑10 134 -‐‑21 0.7444 74.44%2005 174 -‐‑6 2010-‐‑11 174 40 1.0000 100.00%2006 167 -‐‑7 2011-‐‑12 146 -‐‑28 0.8743 87.43%2007 172 5 2012-‐‑13 183 37 1.0640 106.40%2008 158 -‐‑14 2013-‐‑14 186 3 1.1772 117.72%2009 140 -‐‑18 2014-‐‑152010 149 9 2015-‐‑162011 147 -‐‑2 2016-‐‑17

Figure 8: Birth Capture Rate

0.0000

0.2000

0.4000

0.6000

0.8000

1.0000

1.2000

1.4000

1994-‐‑95

1995-‐‑96

1996-‐‑97

1997-‐‑98

1998-‐‑99

1999-‐‑00

2000-‐‑01

2001-‐‑02

2002-‐‑03

2003-‐‑04

2004-‐‑05

2005-‐‑06

2006-‐‑07

2007-‐‑08

2008-‐‑09

2009-‐‑10

2010-‐‑11

2011-‐‑12

2012-‐‑13

2013-‐‑14

Birth Capture Rate

Kindergarten Year



Migration Rate

A Cohort Survival Model (CSM) is used to determine the historical migration rate of students as they progress from Kindergarten through eighth grade. The CSM relies on historical enrollment data to capture the effects of all of the factors impacting student enrollment over the years. It projects future enrollment based upon past trends of students progressed at each grade level (excluding Transitional Kindergarten).

The CSM projection calculates the enrollment for Kindergarten using the Birth Rates Capture as described above. The enrollment for each grade first through eighth is equal to the preceding grade’s enrollment from the previous year plus (or minus) a “Cohort Change Factor” (CCF). For example, seventh grade enrollment in 2013 is equal to the sixth grade enrollment in 2012 plus (or minus) a CCF. The CCF for each grade is an average of the historical changes in enrollment from year to year for that particular grade. These average historic CCFs reflect the impact of variables that influence a district’s enrollment.

Because the CCF can fluctuate over time, three time horizons were considered to project future enrollment. The migration rate that considered three years of historical data produces the greatest increase in the cohort from Kindergarten to eighth grade, so this trend was paired with the high enrollment projection. The migration rate that considered seven years of historical changes produced the lowest rate, so this was paired with the low projection. The migration rate that considered ten years of historical data was in the middle of the two above rates, so it was utilized for the moderate projection. Table 4 shows the historical migration by grade level and the resulting three, seven, and ten year migration rates.

Table 4: Migration Rates by Grade

Year From>To K>1 1>2 2>3 3>4 4>5 5>6 6>7 7>82003>2004 1 -‐‑2 9 0 2 1 1 72004>2005 -‐‑8 6 12 4 1 9 11 92005>2006 -‐‑3 2 4 9 -‐‑4 8 7 -‐‑52006>2007 -‐‑6 4 9 -‐‑1 4 5 -‐‑3 -‐‑62007>2008 -‐‑1 0 5 6 5 6 10 62008>2009 -‐‑2 3 3 -‐‑3 -‐‑3 8 1 -‐‑22009>2010 0 6 4 -‐‑6 4 4 4 12010>2011 -‐‑9 9 6 -‐‑2 -‐‑1 8 6 -‐‑22011>2012 -‐‑2 0 11 -‐‑9 2 -‐‑1 -‐‑4 22012>2013 -‐‑11 2 7 10 7 10 5 5

3 Year Migration -‐‑7.7 2.5 8.2 1.7 4.0 6.0 2.2 2.87-‐‑Year Migration -‐‑5.3 3.4 6.8 -‐‑0.6 2.8 5.8 2.8 1.510-‐‑Year Migration -‐‑4.8 3.3 6.7 0.1 2.2 5.9 3.2 1.1



Figure 9: Cohort Changes Since Kindergarten

175

162

146 17

2

164

163

154

155

150

175 173

146

174

134

155

138

161

134

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Current Grade

Cohort Size as Kindergartener

Figure 9 shows the changes in the cohort over time as the current size of the cohort is shown at each grade level, along with the size of the cohort when it was in Kindergarten. It the lines are above the trends then it means the cohort has grown since Kindergarten.



Table 5: Projected Enrollment – Low Migration Factors

Figure 10: Projected Enrollment – Low Migration Factors

Migration Projection

Taking into account student progression, birth rates and migration rates, Table 5 and Figure 10 identify 10 year projections utilizing the low range estimates.

Actual2013-‐‑14 2014-‐‑15 2015-‐‑16 2016-‐‑17 2017-‐‑18 2018-‐‑19 2019-‐‑20 2020-‐‑21 2021-‐‑22 2022-‐‑23 2023-‐‑24

K 196 149 157 156 151 151 152 152 152 152 1521 162 170 123 130 129 125 125 126 126 126 1262 146 165 173 126 133 132 128 128 129 129 1293 172 153 172 180 133 140 139 135 135 136 1364 164 171 152 171 179 132 139 138 134 134 1355 163 167 174 155 174 182 135 142 141 137 1376 154 169 173 180 161 180 188 141 148 147 1437 155 157 172 176 183 164 183 191 144 151 1508 150 157 159 174 178 185 166 185 193 146 153

Total K-‐‑4 840 808 777 763 725 680 683 679 676 677 678

Total 5-‐‑8 622 650 678 685 696 711 672 659 626 581 583

Total K-‐‑8 1,462 1,458 1,455 1,448 1,421 1,391 1,355 1,338 1,302 1,258 1,261

Projected Enrollment -‐‑ With Low Migration FactorsGrade

892

899

865

869 894 944

940

931

926 952 994 1,023 1,102

1,150

1,173 1,257

1,280

1,330

1,363

1,403

1,462

1,458

1,455

1,448

1,421

1,391

1,355

1,338

1,302

1,258

1,261

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

93-‐‑94

94-‐‑95

95-‐‑96

96-‐‑97

97-‐‑98

98-‐‑99

99-‐‑00

00-‐‑01

01-‐‑02

02-‐‑03

03-‐‑04

04-‐‑05

05-‐‑06

06-‐‑07

07-‐‑08

08-‐‑09

09-‐‑10

10-‐‑11

11-‐‑12

12-‐‑13

13-‐‑14

14-‐‑15

15-‐‑16

16-‐‑17

17-‐‑18

18-‐‑19

19-‐‑20

20-‐‑21

21-‐‑22

22-‐‑23

23-‐‑24


School Year

Actual Projected

The three projections scenarios below utilize the CSM method, each including the birth rate augmentation to project Kindergarten students.



Table 6: Projected Enrollment – Moderate Migration Factors

Figure 11: Projected Enrollment – Moderate Migration Factors

Table 6 and Figure 11 identify 10 year projections utilizing the moderate range estimates.

Actual2013-‐‑14 2014-‐‑15 2015-‐‑16 2016-‐‑17 2017-‐‑18 2018-‐‑19 2019-‐‑20 2020-‐‑21 2021-‐‑22 2022-‐‑23 2023-‐‑24

K 196 165 177 176 170 171 171 171 171 171 1711 162 170 137 147 147 142 142 142 142 142 1422 146 165 173 140 150 150 145 145 145 145 1453 172 153 172 180 147 157 157 152 152 152 1524 164 172 153 172 180 147 157 157 152 152 1525 163 166 174 155 174 182 149 159 159 154 1546 154 169 172 180 161 180 188 155 165 165 1607 155 157 172 175 183 164 183 191 158 168 1688 150 156 158 173 176 184 165 184 192 159 169

Total K-‐‑4 840 825 812 815 794 767 772 767 762 762 762

Total 5-‐‑8 622 648 676 683 694 710 685 689 674 646 651

Total K-‐‑8 1,462 1,473 1,488 1,498 1,488 1,477 1,457 1,456 1,436 1,408 1,413

Projected Enrollment -‐‑ With Moderate Migration FactorsGrade

892

899

865

869 894 944

940

931

926 952 994 1,023 1,102

1,150

1,173 1,257

1,280

1,330

1,363

1,403

1,462

1,473

1,488

1,498

1,488

1,477

1,457

1,456

1,436

1,408

1,413

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

93-‐‑94

94-‐‑95

95-‐‑96

96-‐‑97

97-‐‑98

98-‐‑99

99-‐‑00

00-‐‑01

01-‐‑02

02-‐‑03

03-‐‑04

04-‐‑05

05-‐‑06

06-‐‑07

07-‐‑08

08-‐‑09

09-‐‑10

10-‐‑11

11-‐‑12

12-‐‑13

13-‐‑14

14-‐‑15

15-‐‑16

16-‐‑17

17-‐‑18

18-‐‑19

19-‐‑20

20-‐‑21

21-‐‑22

22-‐‑23

23-‐‑24


School Year

Actual Projected



Actual2013-‐‑14 2014-‐‑15 2015-‐‑16 2016-‐‑17 2017-‐‑18 2018-‐‑19 2019-‐‑20 2020-‐‑21 2021-‐‑22 2022-‐‑23 2023-‐‑24

K 196 178 192 191 186 186 186 186 186 186 1861 162 167 145 157 157 152 152 152 152 152 1522 146 165 170 148 160 160 155 155 155 155 1553 172 154 173 178 156 168 168 163 163 163 1634 164 174 156 175 180 158 170 170 165 165 1655 163 168 178 160 179 184 162 174 174 169 1696 154 169 174 184 166 185 190 168 180 180 1757 155 156 171 176 186 168 187 192 170 182 1828 150 158 159 174 179 189 171 190 195 173 185

Total K-‐‑4 840 838 836 849 839 824 831 826 821 821 821

Total 5-‐‑8 622 651 682 694 710 726 710 724 719 704 711

Total K-‐‑8 1,462 1,489 1,518 1,543 1,549 1,550 1,541 1,550 1,540 1,525 1,532

Projected Enrollment -‐‑ With High Migration FactorsGrade

Table 7: Projected Enrollment – High Migration Factors

Figure 12: Projected Enrollment – High Migration Factors

Table 7 and Figure 12 identify 10 year projections utilizing the high range estimates.

892

899

865

869 894 944

940

931

926 952 994 1,023 1,102

1,150

1,173 1,257

1,280

1,330

1,363

1,403

1,462

1,489

1,518

1,543

1,549

1,550

1,541

1,550

1,540

1,525

1,532

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

93-‐‑94

94-‐‑95

95-‐‑96

96-‐‑97

97-‐‑98

98-‐‑99

99-‐‑00

00-‐‑01

01-‐‑02

02-‐‑03

03-‐‑04

04-‐‑05

05-‐‑06

06-‐‑07

07-‐‑08

08-‐‑09

09-‐‑10

10-‐‑11

11-‐‑12

12-‐‑13

13-‐‑14

14-‐‑15

15-‐‑16

16-‐‑17

17-‐‑18

18-‐‑19

19-‐‑20

20-‐‑21

21-‐‑22

22-‐‑23

23-‐‑24


School Year

Actual Projected



Step Three: Housing DevelopmentNew development is a key component to future enrollment growth in any district, including the Larkspur Corte-Madera School District.

Student Generation Rates

Student Generation Rates (SGRs) are a critical component in analyzing the impact of new development in a district. SGRs are used to project the number of students from new development who will eventually be a part of the District.

In order to ensure the accuracy of these rates, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) mapping was used. The rates were determined by first geocoding the actual address of each student currently enrolled in the District. These addresses were then compared with Marin County Assessors’ parcel information for homes built in the District over the last ten years (2001-2012) to determine the SGRs by grade level for homes ranging in one to ten years of age.

Table 8 identifies the updated SGRs for the District.

Table 8: Student Generation Rates

SGRBy Age of Home K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Total K-‐‑4 5-‐‑8 Total

Year 1 0.000 0.200 0.200 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.400 0.400 0.000 0.400Year 2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.250 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.000 0.250Year 3 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000Year 4 0.125 0.125 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.000 0.250Year 5 0.111 0.333 0.000 0.333 0.000 0.222 0.111 0.111 0.000 1.221 0.777 0.444 1.221Year 6 0.000 0.063 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.125 0.000 0.125 0.000 0.313 0.063 0.250 0.313Year 7 0.100 0.000 0.100 0.200 0.000 0.100 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.500 0.400 0.100 0.500Year 8 0.071 0.071 0.000 0.000 0.071 0.071 0.000 0.071 0.000 0.355 0.213 0.142 0.355Year 9 0.091 0.000 0.045 0.045 0.091 0.000 0.091 0.045 0.045 0.453 0.272 0.181 0.453Year 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.053 0.000 0.000 0.053 0.053 0.000 0.159 0.053 0.106 0.15910 Years 0.050 0.079 0.035 0.088 0.016 0.052 0.026 0.041 0.005 0.390 0.268 0.122 0.390

Grade Level Grade Group



Housing

In consultation with the District, the City of Larkspur and the City of Corte Madera, this Update estimates that 278 residential units will be constructed in the District over the next ten years. Table 9 identifies the updated housing development expected over the next ten years.

Table 9: Projected Students Generated from Residential Development

K-‐‑4 655-‐‑8 27

Total 92

Projected Student Generation Over 10 Years

City of Larkspur

Rose GardenUnder construction now. Excludes residential units that are planned to be age restricted.

35

CLASP 1/2Potential for construction toward end of 10 year timeframe per City staff.

47

Tiscornia WineryNot anticipated to be constructed within 10 year timeframe per City staff.

0

Town of Corte Madera

WinCup-‐‑Tamal Vista Under construction now. Anticipated completion in 2014. 180

Casa Buena Town Homes Anticipated construction within two years per Town staff. 16

Wornum DrNot anticipated to be constructed within 10 year timeframe per Town staff. May be removed from Housing Element.

0

Casa Buena AptsPotential for additional 100 MF units, but not anticipated within 10 year timeframe per Town staff.

0

Total Housing 278

Total Units

Proposed Development Status

Future Housing Development



Migration Projection with Housing

Taking into account all factors including student progressions, birth rates, capture rates, migration rates and housing development, Table 10 and Figure 13 identify 10 year projections utilizing the low range estimates.

Table 10: Projected Enrollment – Low Migration Factors with Housing Development

Actual

2013-‐‑14 2014-‐‑15 2015-‐‑16 2016-‐‑17 2017-‐‑18 2018-‐‑19 2019-‐‑20 2020-‐‑21 2021-‐‑22 2022-‐‑23 2023-‐‑24

K 196 149 157 156 154 154 152 154 154 154 1521 162 174 123 130 132 135 130 127 130 129 1292 146 169 177 126 133 135 138 135 130 134 1333 172 153 181 185 133 147 143 149 142 138 1434 164 171 152 180 184 132 146 142 149 143 1375 163 167 174 155 183 191 138 152 147 152 1466 154 169 173 180 161 191 197 144 158 155 1597 155 157 172 176 183 166 197 200 149 162 1598 150 157 159 174 178 185 168 199 202 152 164

Total K-‐‑4 840 816 790 777 736 703 709 707 705 698 694

Total 5-‐‑8 622 650 678 685 705 733 700 695 656 621 628

Total K-‐‑8 1,462 1,466 1,468 1,462 1,441 1,436 1,409 1,402 1,361 1,319 1,322

Projected Enrollment -‐‑ With Low Migration Factors and HousingGrade

Figure 13: Projected Enrollment – Low Migration Factors with Housing Development

892

899

865

869 894 944

940

931

926 952 994 1,023 1,102

1,150

1,173 1,257

1,280

1,330

1,363

1,403

1,462

1,466

1,468

1,462

1,441

1,436

1,409

1,402

1,361

1,319

1,322

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

93-‐‑94

94-‐‑95

95-‐‑96

96-‐‑97

97-‐‑98

98-‐‑99

99-‐‑00

00-‐‑01

01-‐‑02

02-‐‑03

03-‐‑04

04-‐‑05

05-‐‑06

06-‐‑07

07-‐‑08

08-‐‑09

09-‐‑10

10-‐‑11

11-‐‑12

12-‐‑13

13-‐‑14

14-‐‑15

15-‐‑16

16-‐‑17

17-‐‑18

18-‐‑19

19-‐‑20

20-‐‑21

21-‐‑22

22-‐‑23

23-‐‑24


School Year

Actual Projected



Actual2013-‐‑14 2014-‐‑15 2015-‐‑16 2016-‐‑17 2017-‐‑18 2018-‐‑19 2019-‐‑20 2020-‐‑21 2021-‐‑22 2022-‐‑23 2023-‐‑24

K 196 165 177 176 173 174 171 173 173 173 1711 162 174 137 147 150 152 147 143 146 145 1452 146 169 177 140 150 153 155 152 146 150 1493 172 153 181 185 147 164 161 166 159 154 1594 164 172 153 181 185 147 164 161 167 161 1545 163 166 174 155 183 191 152 169 165 169 1636 154 169 172 180 161 191 197 158 175 173 1767 155 157 172 175 183 166 197 200 163 179 1778 150 156 158 173 176 184 167 198 201 165 180

Total K-‐‑4 840 833 825 829 805 790 798 795 791 783 778

Total 5-‐‑8 622 648 676 683 703 732 713 725 704 686 696

Total K-‐‑8 1,462 1,481 1,501 1,512 1,508 1,522 1,511 1,520 1,495 1,469 1,474

Projected Enrollment -‐‑ With Moderate Migration Factors and HousingGrade

Table 11: Projected Enrollment – Moderate Migration Factors with Housing Development

Figure 14: Projected Enrollment – Moderate Migration Factors with Housing Development

Table 11 and Figure 14 identify 10 year projections utilizing the moderate range estimates.

892

899

865

869 894 944

940

931

926 952 994 1,023 1,102

1,150

1,173 1,257

1,280

1,330

1,363

1,403

1,462

1,481

1,501

1,512

1,508

1,522

1,511

1,520

1,495

1,469

1,474

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

93-‐‑94

94-‐‑95

95-‐‑96

96-‐‑97

97-‐‑98

98-‐‑99

99-‐‑00

00-‐‑01

01-‐‑02

02-‐‑03

03-‐‑04

04-‐‑05

05-‐‑06

06-‐‑07

07-‐‑08

08-‐‑09

09-‐‑10

10-‐‑11

11-‐‑12

12-‐‑13

13-‐‑14

14-‐‑15

15-‐‑16

16-‐‑17

17-‐‑18

18-‐‑19

19-‐‑20

20-‐‑21

21-‐‑22

22-‐‑23

23-‐‑24


School Year

Actual Projected



Actual2013-‐‑14 2014-‐‑15 2015-‐‑16 2016-‐‑17 2017-‐‑18 2018-‐‑19 2019-‐‑20 2020-‐‑21 2021-‐‑22 2022-‐‑23 2023-‐‑24

K 196 178 192 191 189 189 186 188 188 188 1861 162 171 145 157 160 162 157 153 156 155 1552 146 169 174 148 160 163 165 162 156 160 1593 172 154 182 183 156 175 172 177 170 165 1704 164 174 156 184 185 158 177 174 180 174 1675 163 168 178 160 188 193 165 184 180 184 1786 154 169 174 184 166 196 199 171 190 188 1917 155 156 171 176 186 170 201 201 175 193 1918 150 158 159 174 179 189 173 204 204 179 196

Total K-‐‑4 840 846 849 863 850 847 857 854 850 842 837

Total 5-‐‑8 622 651 682 694 719 748 738 760 749 744 756

Total K-‐‑8 1,462 1,497 1,531 1,557 1,569 1,595 1,595 1,614 1,599 1,586 1,593

Projected Enrollment -‐‑ With High Migration Factors and HousingGrade

Table 12: Projected Enrollment – High Migration Factors with Housing Development

Figure 15: Projected Enrollment – High Migration Factors with Housing Development

Table 12 and Figure 15 identify 10 year projections utilizing the high range estimates.

892

899

865

869 894 944

940

931

926 952 994 1,023 1,102

1,150

1,173 1,257

1,280

1,330

1,363

1,403

1,462

1,497

1,531

1,557

1,569

1,595

1,595

1,614

1,599

1,586

1,593

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

93-‐‑94

94-‐‑95

95-‐‑96

96-‐‑97

97-‐‑98

98-‐‑99

99-‐‑00

00-‐‑01

01-‐‑02

02-‐‑03

03-‐‑04

04-‐‑05

05-‐‑06

06-‐‑07

07-‐‑08

08-‐‑09

09-‐‑10

10-‐‑11

11-‐‑12

12-‐‑13

13-‐‑14

14-‐‑15

15-‐‑16

16-‐‑17

17-‐‑18

18-‐‑19

19-‐‑20

20-‐‑21

21-‐‑22

22-‐‑23

23-‐‑24


School Year

Actual Projected



Figure 16: Comparison of Enrollment Projections

Figure 16 is a comparison of the three enrollment projection scenarios.

Comparison

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

93-‐‑94

95-‐‑96

97-‐‑98

99-‐‑00

01-‐‑02

03-‐‑04

05-‐‑06

07-‐‑08

09-‐‑10

11-‐‑12

13-‐‑14

15-‐‑16

17-‐‑18

19-‐‑20

21-‐‑22

23-‐‑24

Enrollm

ent

School Year

Actual Enrollment

Projection-‐‑Low Migration Factors with Housing

Projection-‐‑Moderate Migration Factors with Housing

Projection-‐‑High Migration Factors with Housing

Demographic Study Update December 2013 · Introduction and Report Structure The purpose of this...

Documents

Transcript of Demographic Study Update December 2013 · Introduction and Report Structure The purpose of this...