DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT...DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT UNITED NATIONS EXPERT GROUP...
Transcript of DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT...DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT UNITED NATIONS EXPERT GROUP...
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND
DEVELOPMENT
UNITED NATIONS EXPERT GROUP MEETING ON
POLICY RESPONSES TO LOW FERTILITY
NOVEMBER 2, 2015
S. AMER AHMED
DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS GROUP
• Drawn from Global Monitoring Report 2015/2016
1 GMR 2015/2016GMR 2015/2016
• Demography can identify potential economic
opportunities (and risks)
• These potential economic opportunities divide the world
into centers of global poverty and engines of global
growth
• Policy implications for the low fertility countries:
• Sustaining productivity and adapting to aging (at the country level)
• Leveraging greater globalization (across countries)
Key messages
Using demography to identify economic and development potential
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Growth of Working-
age Population
Share, 2015-30
Total Fertility Rate, 1985 Total Fertility Rate, 2015
<2.1 >=2.1 <4 >=4
<= 0 Post-dividend Late-dividend
>0 Early-dividend Pre-dividend
Note: The working-age population is defined as the share of the population aged between 15 and 64 years. Total fertility
rate is the average number of births per woman in her lifetime.
GMR 2015/2016
• Demographic dividend
• Age structure changes vary across countries
Potential for demographic dividend parallels demographic transition
3 GMR 2015/2016
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
45 55 65 75 85
Life expectancy (years)
Pre-dividend Early-dividendLate-dividend Post-dividend
Total Fertility Rate
Four groups of countries can be identified based on the opportunities for growth and
development that demographic change presents
Note: Based on data for 2015 from population data from UN WPP 2015
Most low-income countries are pre-dividend while most high-income
countries are post-dividend
4 GMR 2015/2016
The world through the lens of the demographic typology
Centers of global poverty and engines of global growth
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87 percent of the world’s poor lived in centers of global poverty in 2015
while the engines of global growth accounted for 78 percent of global
economic growth since 2000
GMR 2015/2016
Note: Based on data from Povcalnet and World Development Indicators
Prospects of development and demographic disparities
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-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Pre-dividend Early-dividend Late-dividend Post-dividend
1980-2015
2015-50
Annual growth of population 15-64 (percent)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1950 60 70 80 90 2000 10 20 30 40 2050
Pre-dividend Early-dividendLate-dividend Post-dividend
Global working-age population growth will be
dominated by the centers of global poverty
Aging already advanced or accelerated in
the engines of global growth
Share of population, ages 65+ (%)
GMR 2015/2016
Note: Based on population data from UN WPP 2015, medium variant scenario
Demographic change could be drag on growth in low-fertility
countries and subsequently on the world as a whole
7 GMR 2015/2016
Average GDP per capita (annualized) growth over 2015-2030, percentage points
0.8 0.5
-0.2-0.6
-0.3-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Pre-dividend Early-dividend Late-dividend Post-dividend World
Net impact ofdemographic changeOther sources of growth
2.83.2
4.2
1.62.1
Note: LINKAGE simulation results
Priorities for the engines of global growth
Sustaining productivity growth
• Continued mobilization of
savings for productive
investment
• Ensure public policies across
encourage labor force
participation of both sexes
• Design cost-effective,
sustainable welfare systems
8 GMR 2015/2016
Adapting to aging
• Reform welfare systems for
fiscal sustainability while
ensuring social protection
• Raise labor force participation
rates & productivity of everyone,
at all ages
• Pursue policies that encourage
fertility rebound, including
measures to reconcile childcare
& work
Late-dividend countries with
shrinking proportions of 15-
64 population & aging
accelerating
Post-dividend countries with
shrinking proportions of 15-
64 population & aging well
underway
GMR 2015/2016
Some policies relevant regardless of demographic stage: reducing
gender gaps in labor market
9 GMR 2015/2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
Pre-dividend Early-dividend Late-dividend Post-dividend
Female Male
Labor force participation rate 2010, percent
GMR 2015/2016
Note: Data from World Development Indicators
Leveraging greater globalization
• Many policy priorities focused on harnessing or addressing demographic change
within country
• Scope for leveraging demographic differences between countries for own growth
as well as positive development spillovers
• Migration
• Trade
• Capital flows
• Channels are complementary
• Generally, migration more constrained than trade and capital flows
10 GMR 2015/2016GMR 2015/2016
Thank You
Global Monitoring Report 2015/2015
www.worldbank.org/gmr
Questions or comments?
S. Amer Ahmed
12 GMR 2015/2016