Demand for STEM Workers:Past Job Trends, Outside Job Demand, and

Uncertain Futures

November 13, 2007

B. Lindsay LowellInstitute for the Study of International Migration

Georgetown Universitylowellbl@georgetown.edu

Presentation at The “Roundtable Series on Technology, Innovation, and American Primacy and the High-Level Roundtable Series on American Competitiveness,” Council on Foreign Relations, New York City, November 13, 2007.

Gauging Demand:Long-Term Trend

• STEM labor force has grown more rapidly than all workers since 1950

• Information technology has been a major growth engine since the 1990s

• But yearly rate of growth has slowed over time, recent growth has been below long-term, linear trend; and structural shift in unemployment may signal softening demand in STEM jobs proper.

Exhibit 1. Total and STEM Labor Force (in thousands)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Source: U.S. Census microdata, see note on data.

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

STEM core, nosocial scientistsor technicians

STEM socialscientists &technicians

All workersreporting anoccupation

Science and Engineering Employment, 1950-2000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Source: Lowell and Regets, 2006 (Census microdata)

S&E Total (life, physcial, eng, mit,soc sci)

Life sciences

Physical sciences

Engineers

Mathematicians and informationtechnology

Social sciences

Technicians, science andengineering

Average annual growth rates by decade

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

1950's 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's

STEM Total

All workers, age18 and older

Total STEM Employment and Linear Trend, 1983 to 2004

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

Source: CPS(MORG) and author's estimate

Actual (CPS)

Linear Trend

Unemployment All US and S&E Workers; and Ratio of the Two, 1983-2004

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2

Source: CPS (MORG)

Une

mpl

oym

ent

rate

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

S&

E /

All

All U.S.

All S&E

S&E, All %

Generalized demand:S&E outside of S&E occupations

• Large proportion of S&E educated persons work in non-S&E type jobs

• How to measure S&E job content?– Substantial share of non-S&E jobholders use

S&E education, but– Surprising share of S&E jobholders do not

• The number of S&E educated individuals is greater than broadly-defined S&E jobs

Figure X. Percent of Degree Recepients by S&E Status One to Two Years After Graduation, Average of Cohorts 1993 to 2001

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Bachelor's Master'sSource: S&E Indicators 2006, Appendix table 2-12 (http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind06/pdf_v2.htm).

Studying, S&E

Studying, Not-S&E

Working, Unemployed

Working, S&E

Working, Not-S&E

Workers with S&E as highest degree employed in non-S&E occupations whose degree is closely

related, 2003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

All degreelevels

Bachelor’s Master’s Doctoral

Source: S&E Indicators, 2006, T3.3

Percentage of Workers with S&E or Related Highest Degree and Job Closely Related to Degree, 2003

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

S&E fields

Computer and mathematical sciences

Biological, agricultural, and environmental lifesciences

Physical and related sciences

Social and related sciences

Engineering

S&E-related fields

Source: S&E Indicators, 2006

Workers with STEM Education and in STEM-type Jobs, ca 2006

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Highest STEM degree Job requires S&Eeducation

STEM occupations

Source: misc.

Mill

ions

Future Demand?• Recall that recent trends suggest slowing

growth

• The BLS projections are for high STEM growth, primarily computer occupations,– STEM not only hi/large growth workforce

• Foreign born are a substantial presence

Projected Growth in Percent, Selected Occupations, 2004 to 2014

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

00-0000 Total, all occupations

11-1300 Management,business, and financial occupations2

15-2900 Professional andrelated occupations3

15-0000 Computer andmathematical science occupations

17-2000 Engineers

19-1000 Life scientists

19-2000 Physical scientists

19-3000 Social scientistsand related occupations

19-4000 Life, physical, andsocial science technicians

25-1000 Postsecondaryteachers

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Growth of College Educated Residents

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Source: MORG/CPS tabulations

India

Philippines

China

Mexico

Korea/ SouthKorea

Canada

Germany

Russia

Figure 8. Past and Projected Size of Population Ages 0 to 39

0

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

1,250,000

1,500,000

1,750,000

2,000,000

2,250,000

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Source: UN 2006

More developed

Less developed

Least developed

Appendix Figure 1. Projection of Immigrant Share of Host Population: At Today's Rates of Emigration and

Destinations

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Source: Author's estimates

Imm

igra

nt P

erce

nt o

f H

ost

Pop

ulat

ion

More developedLess developedLeast developed

STRONG OR WEAKENING DEMAND? … decline in home-grown brain power, difficulty in attracting overseas scholars, and a looming shortage of scientists and engineers National Science Board, 2004 … With an estimated 25 million Americans set to retire by 2020 across all industries — and mass retirements of baby boomers predicted in other Western nations — Forrester Research says IT job seekers will have the upper hand when dealing with hiring managers eager to replenish lost expertise. http://computerworld.co.nz/news.nsf/care/A8E0FED72144FD5FCC2573170012988F … Steps could be taken to improve the outlook for U.S. science and technology. The most obvious move is to address the disconnects in federal STEM policy, which has yet to come to grips with issues like offshoring and the use of “guest workers.” R.A. Ellis, Commission on Professionals in Science and Technology … leaders warn of a labor shortage in the U.S., but indicators point to an oversupply Richard Monastersky Chronicle of Higher Education, 2004 … Despite recurring concerns about potential shortages of STEM personnel in the U.S. workforce, particularly in engineering and information technology, we did not find evidence that such shortages have existed at least since 1990, nor that they are on the horizon. RAND Corporation, 2004