Embassy of the United States of America ▪ Public Affairs Section

INFORMATION RESOURCE CENTER

Information Resource Center | 4 Hlybochytska St. | 04050 Kyiv, Ukraine Tel.: (380 44) 490-4120/4059 | Fax: (380 44) 490-4092 E-mail: ircukraine@state.gov | kyiv.usembassy.gov

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May 2009

Global Coordination Can Stop Pirates Analysts tell Congress arming crews isn’t necessarily the answer

Stephen Mull, a senior adviser to the State Department, told members of Congress that the United States senses a “growing international consensus” to do more to counter piracy. He said the United States hopes to achieve enhanced regional capacity to deal with the problem — training and equipping regional coast guards, coordinating coastal and naval exercises, and pooling surveillance information.

The regional approach, Mull said, has proven successful in combating piracy in the Straits of Malacca and could be applied to other maritime challenges, such as smuggling, trafficking in persons and responding to natural disasters.

The United States plans to convene a meeting of more than 30 international partners, called the International Contact Group on Piracy, in coming weeks. It will press countries to refuse concessions to pirates and to freeze pirates’ ransoms. At the group’s next meeting in New York, the United States also will push more countries to prosecute pirates, according to Mull.

AP PHOTOS

FULL ARTICLE:

http://www.america.gov/st/peacesec-english/2009/May/20090501133050akllennoccm0.918255.html

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ON THE COVER (clockwise):

The American ship, the Maersk Alabama, whose captain remains held hostage by Somali pirates, arrives in Mombasa, Kenya, with the 19 remaining crew members aboard, Saturday April 11 2009. Capt. Richard Phillips is still being held in the lifeboat hundreds of miles from land. U.S. warships are nearby monitoring the situation. The U.S.-flagged ship was attacked by Somali pirates firing automatic weapons Wednesday but its unarmed crew locked themselves in a secure room and then overpowered one of the pirates. (AP Photo / Sayyid Azim) In this photo taken on Monday, May 4, 2009 and released by South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff, South Korean snipers on a helicopter aim at a pirate ship about 37 kilometers (23 miles) south of Aden port in Yemen. A South Korean navy warship has rescued a North Korean freighter by driving away a pirate ship chasing it off Somalia. (AP Photo/ South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff, HO) This Monday, April 13, 2009 photo provided by the U.S. Navy on Tuesday, April 14, 2009 shows a team from the amphibious assault ship USS Boxer towing the lifeboat from the Maersk Alabama to Boxer to be processed for evidence after the successful rescue of Capt. Richard Phillips. Phillips was held captive by suspected Somali pirates in the lifeboat in the Indian Ocean for five days after a failed hijacking attempt off the Somali coast. (AP Photo/U.S. Navy, Petty Officer 2nd Class Jon Rasmussen)

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GOVERNMENT DOCUMENTS .................................................................................................... 7

NATIONAL COUNTERTERRORISM CENTER 2008 REPORT ON TERRORISM. 30 April 2009 ............................. 7 MEASURING STABILITY AND SECURITY IN IRAQ. Report to Congress. U.S. Department of Defense March09 .. 7 MILITARY POWER OF THE PEOPLE‘S REPUBLIC OF CHINA. ANNUAL REPORT TO CONGRESS 2009. Office

of the Secretary of Defense, March 2009 ........................................................................................................................... 7 INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY WORKERS GIVE THEIR EMPLOYERS HIGH MARKS FOR JOB

SATISFACTION AND INDENTIFY REMAINING CHALLENGES, 2008 SURVEY SHOWS.

Office of the Director of National Intelligence. April 9, 2009. .......................................................................................... 8 AFGHANISTAN: KEY ISSUES FOR CONGRESSIONAL OVERSIGHT. U.S. Government Accountability Office.

April 21, 2009..................................................................................................................................................................... 8 MARITIME SECURITY: VESSEL TRACKING SYSTEMS PROVIDE KEY INFORMATION, BUT THE NEED FOR

DUPLICATE DATA SHOULD BE REVIEWED. U.S. Government Accountability Office. Web posted April 16, 2009.8 IRAQ: KEY ISSUES FOR CONGRESSIONAL OVERSIGHT. U.S. Government Accountability Office. Web posted

March 24, 2009................................................................................................................................................................... 8

CONGRESSIONAL DOCUMENTS (HEARINGS, REPORTS, ETC.) .................................... 9

RELEASE OF DECLASSIFIED NARRATIVE DESCRIBING THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE OFFICE OF LEGAL

COUNSEL‘S OPINIONS ON THE CIA‘S DETENTION AND INTERROGRATION PROGRAM. U.S. Senate Select

Committee on Intelligence. April 22, 2009. ....................................................................................................................... 9

THE WHITE HOUSE ...................................................................................................................... 9

THE UNITED STATES AND THE 2009 SUMMIT OF THE AMERICAS: SECURING OUR CITIZEN‘S FUTURE.

The White House. April 19, 2009....................................................................................................................................... 9 WHITE PAPER OF THE INTERAGENCY POLICY GROUP‘S REPORT ON U.S. POLICY TOWARD

AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN. The White House. March 2009. ............................................................................. 9

THE U.S. AND NATO ................................................................................................................... 10

NATO 60TH ANNIVERSARY SUMMIT. Strasbourg, France and Kehl, Germany, April 3-4, 2009 ........................... 10

THINK TANK PUBLICATIONS ................................................................................................. 10

THE "IDEA OF INDIA" AFTER MUMBAI. By Apoorva Shah. . AEI Online. ASIAN OUTLOOK No. 3, May 2009 .. 10 THE TALIBAN'S ATOMIC THREAT. John R. Bolton. AEI Article published in the Wall Street Journal, May 2/09 . 10 DON'T PRETEND THIS IS A DEBATE ABOUT "TORTURE". By David Frum. AEI Article, Published in the National

Post (Canada), May 2, 2009 ............................................................................................................................................. 11 ARMS CONTROL ASSOCIATION ....................................................... 11

ARMS CONTROL TODAY, April 2009. Arms Control Association ................................................................................ 11 A TEN-YEAR FRAMEWORK FOR AFGHANISTAN: EXECUTING THE OBAMA PLAN AND BEYOND. Ashraf

Ghani. ACUS April 22, 2009 .......................................................................................................................................... 11 EUROPE'S PROBLEMATIC CONTRIBUTION TO POLICE TRAINING IN AFGHANISTAN. Federiga Bindi,

Visiting Fellow, Foreign Policy, Brookings Center on the United States and Europe. The Brookings Institution .......... 12 FIRST 100 DAYS: GRADING OBAMA‘S FOREIGN POLICY. Michael E. O'Hanlon, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy.

Brookings Institution, April 29, 2009 .............................................................................................................................. 12 CUBA: A NEW POLICY OF CRITICAL AND CONSTRUCTIVE ENGAGEMENT. Brookings Institution. Carlos

Pascual and Vicki Huddleton. April 2009. ....................................................................................................................... 12 FORCE ALONE WON'T DEFEAT SOMALI PIRACY. Hady Amr and Areej Noor. Brookings Doha Center.

Published in The Daily Star, April 24, 2009 ................................................................................................................... 12 RECONCILING WITH THE TALIBAN? TOWARD AN ALTERNATIVE GRAND STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN.

Ashley J. Tellis. Carnegie Report, April 2009 .................................................................................................................. 13 U.S.-DPRK NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS: A SURVEY OF THE POLICY LITERATURE. Lindsey Ford, Zachary

Hosford, Michael Zubrow. Working Paper. Center for a New American Security, 04/25/2009 ...................................... 13 THE PAST AND PRESENT AS PROLOGUE: FUTURE WARFARE THROUGH THE LENS OF CONTEMPORARY

CONFLICTS. General Robert H. Scales. A Report. CNAS 04/01/2009.......................................................................... 13 UNCHARTED WATERS: THE U.S. NAVY AND NAVIGATING CLIMATE CHANGE. Sharon Burke, Jay Gulledge,

et al. Working Paper. CNAS 03/30/2009 ......................................................................................................................... 13 CENTER FOR ARMS CONTROL AND NON-PROLIFERATION ................................... 14

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PRESIDENT OBAMA: 100 DAYS OF SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS. John Isaacs. Center for Arms Control and Non-

Proliferation, April 28, 2009 ............................................................................................................................................ 14 THE RRW'S VACUUM TUBE MYTH. Jeffrey Lewis and Kingston Reif. Article published in the Bulletin of Atomic

Scientists Online, May 1, 2009 ......................................................................................................................................... 14 CENTER FOR PUBLIC INTEGRITY .................................................... 14

FRAUD CASES FELL WHILE PENTAGON CONTRACTS SURGED. Center for Public Integrity.

Nick Schwellenbach. April 1, 2009. ................................................................................................................................. 14 CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES (CSIS) .......................... 15

IRAQ: TRENDS IN VIOLENCE AND CIVILIAN CASUALTIES:2005-2009. Anthony Cordesman, Burke Chair in

Strategy. CSIS, May 5, 2009 ............................................................................................................................................ 15 AN EXPANDED MANDATE FOR PEACE BUILDING: The State Department Role in Peace Diplomacy,

Reconstruction, and Stabilization. Dane F. Smith Jr. CSIS April 30, 2009 ..................................................................... 15 FOREIGN ASSISTANCE FOR PEACE: The U.S. Agency for International Development. Dane F. Smith Jr. CSIS. April

30, 2009 ............................................................................................................................................................................ 15 U.S. GLOBAL HEALTH AND NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY. Center for Strategic & International Studies. Harley

Feldbaum. April 20, 2009. ................................................................................................................................................ 16 CENTURY FOUNDATION (TCF) ....................................................... 16

FIGHTING OFF FATIGUE: THE UN CORNERSTONE OF ANTITERRORISM ACTION. Jeffrey Laurenti, 2009 .. 16 NUCLEAR ISSUE UNITES CONSERVATIVES AND REFORMISTS. Geneive Abdo, The Century Foundation,

4/27/2009 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 16 COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER AT WEST POINT, U.S. MILITARY ACADEMY ................ 16

DYSFUNCTION AND DECLINE:LESSONS LEARNED FROM INSIDE AL-QA`IDA IN IRAQ. Brian Fishman.

The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, March 16, 2009 ................................................................................... 16 THE NATIONAL INTEREST AND THE LAW OF THE SEA. Scott G. Borgerson, Visiting Fellow for Ocean

Governance. Council Special Report No. 46. Council on Foreign Relations Press, May 2009 ....................................... 17 STABILIZING PAKISTAN: BOOSTING ITS PRIVATE SECTOR. Council on Foreign Relations. Jayshree Bajoria.

April 30, 2009................................................................................................................................................................... 17 SHARIA AND MILITANCY. Council on Foreign Relations. Toni Johnson. April 22, 2009. ........................................ 17 AFGHANISTAN‘S NATIONAL SECURITY FORCES. Council on Foreign Relations. Greg Bruno. April 16, 2009. 17 U.S. – CUBA RELATIONS. Council on Foreign Relations. Stephanie Hanson. April 14, 2009. ................................... 18 U.S. NUCLEAR WEAPONS POLICY. Task Force Report No. 62. William J. Perry, Professor, Stanford University;

Brent Scowcroft, Resident Trustee, The Forum for International Policy. Council on Foreign Relations, April 2009 ..... 18 FROM COUNTERFORCE TO MINIMAL DETERRENCE. Federation of American Scientists

& The Natural Resources Defense Council. Hans M. Kristensen et al. April 2009. ........................................................ 18 FOREIGN POLICY IN FOCUS (FPIF) ................................................. 18

MARTYRDOM'S STRATEGY: SUICIDE BOMBERS TARGET OBAMA'S WITHDRAWAL PLAN. Steve Niva.

Foreign Policy In Focus, May 5, 2009 ............................................................................................................................. 18 OBAMA'S FIRST 100 DAYS: FOREIGN POLICY. John Feffer Foreign Policy In Focus, April 27, 2009 .................. 19

GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE UNITED STATES ...................................... 19 AMERICA‘S NEW NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT POLICY AND THE TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONSHIP.

Gilles Andréani. GMF Policy Brief, May 4, 2009 ........................................................................................................... 19 THE MYTH OF ―EXPORTING‖ DEMOCRACY: LESSONS FROM EASTERN EUROPE AFTER 1989.

John K. Glenn. GMF Policy Brief, April 21, 2009 .......................................................................................................... 19 HERITAGE FOUNDATION ............................................................ 20

INDEPENDENT PANEL NEEDED FOR ALTERNATIVE VIEWS TO THE PENTAGON'S QUADRENNIAL

DEFENSE REVIEW. Mackenzie Eaglen and Eric Sayers. Heritage Foundation WebMemo #2425. May 5, 2009 ........ 20 STRATEGIC NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL FOR THE PROTECT AND DEFEND STRATEGY.

Andrei Shoumikhin, Ph.D. and Baker Spring. Heritage Foundation Backgrounder #2266. May 4, 2009 ....................... 20 REVIVING PAKISTAN'S PLURALIST TRADITIONS TO FIGHT EXTREMISM. Lisa Curtis. Heritage Foundation

Backgrounder #2268, May 4, 2009 .................................................................................................................................. 20 100 DAYS OF GOOD, BAD, AND UGLY: FOREIGN POLICY AND NATIONAL SECURITY. Fact Sheet #1627 by

heritage.org, April 2009 ................................................................................................................................................... 21 100 DAYS OF OBAMA'S PRESIDENCY: SERIOUS QUESTIONS ON NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGIES.

James Jay Carafano, Ph.D. Heritage Foundation WebMemo #2412 April 27, 2009 ....................................................... 21 COMPLEX SYSTEMS ANALYSIS-A NECESSARY TOOL FOR HOMELAND SECURITY. James Jay Carafano,

Ph.D. and Richard Weitz, Ph.D. Heritage Foundation Backgrounder #2261. April 16, 2009 .......................................... 21 NATO'S 60TH ANNIVERSARY SUMMIT: UNFOCUSED AND UNSUCCESSFUL. Sally McNamara. Heritage

Foundation WebMemo #2388. April 8, 2009 ................................................................................................................... 21 HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH ............................................................. 22

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UNDER THE COVER OF WAR: HAMAS AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN GAZA. Human Rights Watch. April 20,

2009. ................................................................................................................................................................................. 22 RAIN OF FIRE: ISRAEL‘S UNLAWFUL USE OF WHITE PHOSPHORUS IN GAZA. Human Rights Watch.

March 26, 2008................................................................................................................................................................. 22 INSTITUTE FOR FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS, INC. (IFPA) .............................. 22

REALIGNING PRIORITIES: THE U.S.-JAPAN ALLIANCE AND THE FUTURE OF EXTENDED DETERRENCE.

James L. Schoff. A Project Report by the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis 2009.................................................... 22 FINDING THE RIGHT MIX: DISASTER DIPLOMACY, NATIONAL SECURITY, AND INTERNATIONAL

COOPERATION. Charles M. Perry & Marina Travayiakis . Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis 2009 ...................... 23 INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP (ICG) ............................................... 23

HAITI: SAVING THE ENVIRONMENT, PREVENTING INSTABILITY AND CONFLICT.

International Crisis Group. April 28, 2009. ...................................................................................................................... 23 GAZA‘S UNFINISHED BUSINESS. International Crisis Group. April 23, 2009. ........................................................ 23 CHINA‘S GROWING ROLE IN UN PEACEKEEPING. International Crisis Group. April 17, 2009. .......................... 23

NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY (NDU) .............................................. 24 THE FUTURE OF PAKISTAN-U.S. RELATIONS: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES. Maleeha Lodhi. INSS

Special Report.Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University, April 2009.................................. 24 A 21ST-CENTURY CONCEPT OF AIR AND MILITARY OPERATIONS. Robbin F. Laird.

Center for Technology and National Security Polic, National Defense University. Defense Horizons Number 66. March

2009. ................................................................................................................................................................................. 24 HYBRID THREATS: RECONCEPTUALIZING THE EVOLVING CHARACTER OF MODERN CONFLICT. F

rank G. Hoffman. Strategic Forum No. 240. Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University 200924 PIRACY OFF THE COAST OF SOMALIA. National Defense University Library. April 2009.................................... 25 SOCIAL SOFTWARE AND NATIONAL SECURITY: AN INITIAL NET ASSESSMENT.

National Defense University. Mark Drapeau and Linton Wells II. April 2009. ............................................................... 25 ALLIANCE REBORN: AN ATLANTIC COMPACT FOR THE 21ST CENTURY-A report of the Washington NATO

Project. February 2009 ..................................................................................................................................................... 25 NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL ...................................................... 26

GLOBAL SECURITY ENGAGEMENT: A NEW MODEL FOR COOPERATIVE THREAT REDUCTION.

National Research Council. March 2009. ......................................................................................................................... 26 RAND ........................................................................... 26

JUSTIFICATION AND OPTIONS FOR CREATING U.S. CAPABILITIES. Terrence K. Kelly et al. RAND

Corporation. May 2009 .................................................................................................................................................... 26 WHAT ARE U.S. POLICY OPTIONS FOR DEALING WITH SECURITY IN MEXICO? RAND Corporation. April 28,

2009. ................................................................................................................................................................................. 26 SECURITY IN MEXICO: IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. POLICY OPTIONS. Agnes Gereben Schaefer et al. RAND

Corporation. April 28, 2009. ............................................................................................................................................ 27 RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY: SOURCES AND IMPLICATIONS. Olga Oliker et al. RAND Corporation 2009 ..... 27 THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE CAN IMPROVE ITS RESPONSE TO AND MANAGEMENT OF ANTHRAX

INCIDENTS. RAND Corporation. April 20, 2009. ......................................................................................................... 27 IMPROVING CAPACITY FOR STABILIZATION AND RECONSTRUCTION OPERATIONS. RAND Corporation.

Nora Bensahel et al. April 3, 2009. .................................................................................................................................. 27 U.S. STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN. RAND Corporation. Seth G. Jones. April 2, 2009. ......................................... 27 INITIAL EVALUATION OF THE CITIES READINESS INITIATIVE. RAND Corporation. Henry H. Willis et al.

March 24, 2009................................................................................................................................................................. 28 THE CAPABILITIES THAT MEDIUM-ARMORED FORCES BRING TO THE FULL SPECTRUM OF

OPERATIONS. RAND Corporation. David E. Johnson et al. March 2009. .................................................................... 28 STANLEY FOUNDATION ............................................................. 28

REALIZING NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT- UN Issues. Stanley Foundation Conference Report, April 2009 ............ 28 STRATEGIC STUDIES INSTITUTE, U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE .............................. 28

BEYOND THE STRAIT: PLA MISSIONS OTHER THAN TAIWAN. Edited by Mr. Roy Kamphausen, Dr. David Lai,

Dr. Andrew Scobell. Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army College. Added April 30, 2009 .......................................... 28 NEW NATO MEMBERS: SECURITY CONSUMERS OR PRODUCERS? Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army

College. Joel R. Hillison. April 22, 2009. ........................................................................................................................ 29 A HISTORY OF SOCIO-CULTURAL INTELLIGENCE AND RESEARCH UNDER THE OCCUPATION OF

JAPAN. Lieutenant Colonel (USAF) Michael B. Meyer. Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army College. April 2009 .. 29 THE NEW BALANCE: LIMITED ARMED STABILIZATION AND THE FUTURE OF U.S. LANDPOWER.

Nathan P. Freier. Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army College, April 06, 2009 ........................................................... 29 STRATFOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE ................................................... 30

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A CHILLING EFFECT ON U.S. COUNTERTERRORISM. Stratfor Global Intelligence. Fred Burton and Scott Stewart.

April 28, 2009................................................................................................................................................................... 30 UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE ............................................... 30

THE ROLE OF THE MINISTERIAL ADVISOR IN SECURITY SECTOR REFORM: NAVIGATING

INSTITUTIONAL TERRAINS. U.S. Institute of Peace. Liz Panarelli. April 2009. ...................................................... 30 THE KURDS IN SYRIA: FUELING SEPARATIST MOVEMENTS IN THE REGION? Radwan Ziadeh. USIP Special

Report, April 2009 ............................................................................................................................................................ 30 CONDUCTING ELECTIONS IN DARFUR: LOOKING AHEAD TO SUDAN‘S 2009 ELECTIONS. Stephanie

Schwartz. USIPeace Briefing, March 2009 ...................................................................................................................... 30 THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR-EAST POLICY ................................... 31

PAKISTAN ON THE BRINK: IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. POLICIES. Simon Henderson. PolicyWatch #1513.

The Washington Institute for Near-East Policy, May 4, 2009 .......................................................................................... 31 DISRUPTING TEHRAN'S EXPORT OF TECHNOLOGY AND WEAPONS. By Matthew Levitt. PolicyWatch #1512.

The Washington Institute for Near-East Policy, April 30, 2009 ....................................................................................... 31 EGYPT'S CAMPAIGN AGAINST IRAN SENDS WASHINGTON A SIGNAL. David Pollock and Mohammad

Yaghi. PolicyWatch #1507. The Washington Institute for Near-East Policy, April 17, 2009 ......................................... 31 CUBA POLICY AND US PUBLIC OPINION. World Public Opinion. Stephen Weber et al. April 15, 2009. .............. 31

YALE CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF GLOBALIZATION ...................................... 32 THE KOREAS: A TALE OF TWO TRIANGLES. Yale Center for the Study of Globalization. Han Sung-Joo. April 10,

2009. ................................................................................................................................................................................. 32

ARTICLES FROM U.S. JOURNALS ......................................................................................... 32

THE TRANSATLANTIC AGENDA: US-EUROPEAN RELATIONS IN A GLOBALIZED SYSTEM. Harvard

International Review, vol. 30, no. 3, Fall 2008, pp. 78-80 ............................................................................................... 32 HOW SMART AND TOUGH ARE DEMOCRACIES? REASSESSING THEORIES 0F DEMOCRATIC VICTORY IN

WAR. Downes, Alexander B. International Security vol. 33, no. 4, Spring 2009, pp. 9-51 ............................................ 32 BRIDGE OVER TROUBLED WATER? ENVISIONING A CHINA-TAIWAN PEACE AGREEMENT. Saunders,

Phillip C.; Kastner, Scott L. International Security vol. 33, no. 4, Spring 2009, pp. 115-148 ......................................... 33 DECONSTRUCTING THE SHARIATIC JUSTIFICATION OF SUICIDE BOMBINGS. Slavicek, David Jan.

Studies in Conflict & Terrorism vol. 31, no. 6, June 2008, pp. 553-571 .......................................................................... 33 TOWARD RECONCILIATION IN AFGHANISTAN. O‘Hanlon, Michael. Washington Quarterly, vol. 32, no. 2,

April 2009, pp. 139-147 ................................................................................................................................................... 33 ARCTIC MELT: REOPENING A NAVAL FRONTIER. Gove, David. U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings vol. 135, no. 2,

February 2009, pp. 16-21 ................................................................................................................................................. 34 WHEN RIGHT MAKES MIGHT: HOW PRUSSIA OVERTURNED THE EUROPEAN BALANCE OF POWER.

Goddard, Stacie. International Security vol. 33, no. 3, Winter 2008/2009, pp. 110-142 ................................................. 34 THE NEXT CATASTROPHE: READY OR NOT? Wormuth, Christine. Washington Quarterly vol. 32, no. 1,

January 2009, pp. 93-106 ................................................................................................................................................. 34 MOTIVES FOR MARTYRDOM: AL-QAIDA, SALAFI JIHAD, AND THE SPREAD OF SUICIDE ATTACKS.

Moghadam, Assaf. International Security vol. 33, no. 3, Winter 2008/2009, pp. 46-78 .................................................. 35 CENTER STAGE FOR THE 21ST CENTURY: POWER PLAYS IN THE INDIAN OCEAN. Kaplan, Robert. Foreign

Affairs vol. 88, no. 2, March-April 2009 .......................................................................................................................... 35 THE TERRORIST THREAT: EXISTENTIAL OR EXAGGERATED? A "RED CELL" PERSPECTIVE. Fidas, George

C. International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence vol. 21, no. 3, Fall 2008, pp. 519-529 ....................... 35 LINKAGE DIPLOMACY: ECONOMIC AND SECURITY BARGAINING IN THE ANGLO-JAPANESE

ALLIANCE, 1902–23. Davis, Christina. International Security vol. 33, no. 3, Winter 2008/2009, pp. 143-179 ........... 36

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GOVERNMENT DOCUMENTS

NATIONAL COUNTERTERRORISM CENTER 2008 REPORT ON

TERRORISM. 30 April 2009

Approximately 11,800 terrorist attacks against noncombatants occurred in

various countries during 2008, resulting in over 54,000 deaths, injuries

and kidnappings. Compared to 2007, attacks decreased by 2,700, or 18

percent, in 2008 while deaths due to terrorism decreased by 6,700, or 30

percent. As was the case last year, the largest number of reported terrorist

attacks occurred in the Near East, but unlike previous years, South Asia

had the greater number of fatalities. These two regions were also the

locations for 75 percent of the 235 high-casualty attacks (those that killed 10 or more people)

in 2008.

Terrorist use of kidnappings for ransom increased significantly in 2008. The number of

kidnappings in South Asia during 2008 rose by 45 percent, although kidnappings worldwide

remained about the same. The number of kidnappings in Pakistan rose sharply by 340 percent

and in Afghanistan by about 100 percent, while in India the number rose by 30 percent. http://wits.nctc.gov/ReportPDF.do?f=crt2008nctcannexfinal.pdf

MEASURING STABILITY AND SECURITY IN IRAQ. Report to

Congress. U.S. Department of Defense March 2009

In summary, the political, security, economic, diplomatic, and rule of law

trends in Iraq remain generally positive, though key challenges remain.

With the conclusion and the implementation of the SFA and SA, this

reporting period witnessed significant steps toward the development of a

U.S.-Iraq strategic relationship, setting the stage for long-term cooperative

efforts as Iraq continues to develop as a stable partner in the region. At the

same time, continued reductions in violence have afforded Iraqis an

environment in which political and economic development can occur, and the peaceful conduct

of provincial elections in January 2009 was an indicator of progress. In accordance with the

SA, the ISF have assumed primary security responsibility for

Iraq and continue to improve their operational and tactical capabilities, although still relying on

U.S. combat support enablers. http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/Measuring_Stability_and_Security_in_Iraq_March_2009.pdf

MILITARY POWER OF THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA.

ANNUAL REPORT TO CONGRESS 2009. Office of the Secretary of

Defense, March 2009

Beijing publicly asserts that China‘s military modernization is ―purely

defensive in nature,‖ and aimed solely at protecting China‘s security and

interests. Over the past several years, China has begun a new phase of

military development by beginning to articulate roles and missions for the

PLA that go beyond China‘s immediate territorial interests, but has left

unclear to the international community the purposes and objectives of the

PLA‘s evolving doctrine and capabilities. Moreover, China continues to promulgate

incomplete defense expenditure figures and engage in actions that appear inconsistent with its

declaratory policies. The limited transparency in China‘s military and security affairs poses

risks to stability by creating uncertainty and increasing the potential for misunderstanding and

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miscalculation. The United States continues to work with our allies and friends in the region to

monitor these developments and adjust our policies accordingly. http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/China_Military_Power_Report_2009.pdf

INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY WORKERS GIVE THEIR EMPLOYERS HIGH

MARKS FOR JOB SATISFACTION AND INDENTIFY REMAINING CHALLENGES,

2008 SURVEY SHOWS. Office of the Director of National Intelligence. April 9, 2009.

Employees in the Intelligence Community (IC) continue to rate their agencies more favorably

than other federal workers assess the government on the whole in overall job satisfaction, the

general quality of managers and senior leaders, and the development of top talent, according to

results from the 2008 IC Employee Climate Survey.

http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/20090409_release.pdf [PDF format, 2 pages].

AFGHANISTAN: KEY ISSUES FOR CONGRESSIONAL

OVERSIGHT. U.S. Government Accountability Office. April 21, 2009.

The United States has provided approximately $38.6 billion in

reconstruction assistance to Afghanistan and has over 35,000 troops in the

country as of February 2009. Some progress has occurred in areas such as

economic growth, infrastructure development, and training of the Afghan

National Security Forces (ANSF), but the overall security situation in

Afghanistan has not improved after more than 7 years of U.S. and

international efforts. In response, the new administration plans to deploy

approximately 21,000 additional troops to Afghanistan this year, and has completed a strategic

review of U.S. efforts in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09473sp.pdf [PDF format, 37 pages].

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09626sp.pdf e-Supplement [PDF format, 6 pages].

MARITIME SECURITY: VESSEL TRACKING SYSTEMS PROVIDE KEY

INFORMATION, BUT THE NEED FOR DUPLICATE DATA SHOULD BE

REVIEWED. U.S. Government Accountability Office. Web posted April 16, 2009.

U.S. ports, waterways, and coastal approaches are part of a system handling more than $700

billion in merchandise annually. With the many possible threats, including transportation and

detonation of weapons of mass destruction, suicide attacks against vessels, and others, in the

maritime domain, awareness of such threats could give the Coast Guard advance notice to help

detect, deter, interdict, and defeat them and protect the U.S. homeland and economy.

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09337.pdf [PDF format, 58 pages].

IRAQ: KEY ISSUES FOR CONGRESSIONAL OVERSIGHT. U.S. Government

Accountability Office. Web posted March 24, 2009.

Before signing the security agreement with Iraq, the prior administration had linked the

drawdown of U.S. forces to the achievement of security, political, economic, and diplomatic

conditions. Meeting these conditions would enable the United States to achieve its strategic

goal for Iraq: a unified, democratic, and federal Iraq that could govern, defend, and sustain

itself and become an ally in the war on terror. Some conditions the United States sought to

achieve in Iraq included an improved security situation; more capable Iraqi security forces;

improved essential services such as access to clean water and reliable electricity; and the

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passage of legislation promoting national reconciliation, such as laws governing the

distribution of oil revenues and amnesty for former insurgents, says the report.

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09294sp.pdf [PDF format, 56 pages].

CONGRESSIONAL DOCUMENTS (HEARINGS, REPORTS, ETC.)

RELEASE OF DECLASSIFIED NARRATIVE DESCRIBING THE DEPARTMENT OF

JUSTICE OFFICE OF LEGAL COUNSEL’S OPINIONS ON THE CIA’S DETENTION

AND INTERROGRATION PROGRAM. U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.

April 22, 2009.

The Senate Intelligence Committee releases a document describing the early approval of the

CIA interrogation program by the Bush Administration, and the preparation of the Office of

Legal Counsel opinions that gave legal approval for the use of specific interrogation

techniques. The Committee, under then-Chairman Jay Rockefeller‘s leadership, has been

working with the Bush and Obama Administrations since August 2008 to have this document

declassified, long before the decision to release four OLC legal opinions last week

http://intelligence.senate.gov/pdfs/olcopinion.pdf [PDF format, 17 pages].

THE WHITE HOUSE

THE UNITED STATES AND THE 2009 SUMMIT OF THE AMERICAS: SECURING

OUR CITIZEN’S FUTURE. The White House. April 19, 2009.

On April 17-19, President Barack Obama attended the Fifth Summit of the Americas in

Trinidad and Tobago, along with the 33 other democratically elected Heads of State and

Government of the Western Hemisphere. The President used his first meeting with many of his

regional counterparts to start engaging in a new relationship with countries of the Americas and

to forge partnerships and joint approaches to work on the common challenges facing the people

of the Americas. http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/The-United-States-and-the-2009-Summit-of-the-Americas-Securing-Our-Citizens-Future/ [HTML format, various paging].

WHITE PAPER OF THE INTERAGENCY POLICY GROUP’S REPORT ON U.S.

POLICY TOWARD AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN. The White House. March 2009.

The United States has a vital national security interest in addressing the current and potential

security threats posed by extremists in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In Pakistan, al Qaeda and

other groups of jihadist terrorists are planning new terror attacks. Their targets remain the U.S.

homeland, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, Europe, Australia, our allies in the Middle East, and

other targets of opportunity. http://www.whitehouse.gov/assets/documents/Afghanistan-Pakistan_White_Paper.pdf

[PDF format, 6 pages].

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THE U.S. AND NATO

NATO 60TH ANNIVERSARY SUMMIT. Strasbourg, France and Kehl, Germany, April

3-4, 2009

On April 3-4, NATO celebrated its 60th anniversary at a Summit Meeting of NATO Heads of

State in Strasbourg, France and Kehl, Germany. In addition to commemorating six decades of

common transatlantic security and values, this Summit marked historic decisions and new

commitments made by the Alliance. Summit high points included: two new NATO members:

Albania and Croatia; a renewed commitment to Afghanistan, with real deliverables on Election

Support Force, operational mentoring and liaison teams (OMLTs), and financial support and a

new NATO Training Mission for Afghanistan; the launch of work on a new NATO Strategic

Concept; French reintegration into the NATO military command structure; and agreement on a

new Secretary General.

KEY SUMMIT DOCUMENTS: http://nato.usmission.gov/NATOat60/NATOat60.asp

THINK TANK PUBLICATIONS

AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE

THE "IDEA OF INDIA" AFTER MUMBAI. By Apoorva Shah. . AEI

Online. ASIAN OUTLOOK No. 3, May 2009

India's founding ideal of multicultural democracy is critical to both

domestic cohesion and geopolitical interest, and it has defined how the

country confronts terrorism at home. Modern India has much experience

with terrorism, but most attacks have been rooted in separatist and ethnic

insurgencies in rural frontier provinces. In the last decade, however, India

has seen a steep rise in the number of attacks in urban areas, aimed at

civilians, and committed not by rural insurgents but by young, middle-

class jihadists. These domestic threats, which expose fault lines in the "idea of India," have

been welcomed and at times supported by Pakistan, whose existence is founded in opposition

to India. In fact, the apparent paradox between Pakistan's tolerance of the Lashkar-e-Taiba

(LeT) terrorist group leading up to the November 26, 2008, attacks in Mumbai and Pakistan's

internal struggle against extremists can be understood in the framework of these conflicting

ideologies. For India, countering the threat of domestic jihadism is not only a security

imperative; it is also a strategic necessity. This merits a new counterterrorism response by the

Indian government and a renewed understanding of Indian Muslims and their place in India's

pluralistic society. http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.29761/pub_detail.asp

THE TALIBAN'S ATOMIC THREAT. John R. Bolton. AEI Article published in the Wall

Street Journal, May 2, 2009

Often known as Pakistan's "steel skeleton" for holding the country together after successive corrupt

or incompetent civilian governments, the military itself is now gravely threatened from within by

rising pro-Taliban sentiment. In these circumstances--especially if, as Secretary of State Hillary

Clinton testified recently, the nuclear arsenal has been dispersed around the country--there is a

tangible risk that several weapons could slip out of military control. Such weapons could then find

their way to al Qaeda or other terrorists, with obvious global implications. http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.29803/pub_detail.asp

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DON'T PRETEND THIS IS A DEBATE ABOUT "TORTURE". By David Frum. AEI

Article, Published in the National Post (Canada), May 2, 2009

The terrorist most frequently waterboarded was Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the architect of the

9/11 plan. When captured by U. S. and Pakistani agents in Karachi, he was immediately asked

whether al-Qaeda had any more acts of mass murder planned. He answered: "You'll find out."

The Bush administration decided not to wait to discover what the arch-terrorist had in mind.

Under harsh interrogation, Mohammed revealed information that saved American lives,

according to every serving intelligence chief--including President Obama's own director of

national intelligence, Admiral Dennis Blair.

Maybe it was wrong of the Bush administration to do so. Maybe they should have run more

risks with American lives. That would be an interesting debate, but for obvious reasons it's not

a debate that critics of the Bush administration want to engage in. http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.29810/pub_detail.asp

ARMS CONTROL ASSOCIATION

ARMS CONTROL TODAY, April 2009. Arms Control Association

Focus: Pressing the Nuclear Reset Button

Features:

Getting to Zero: An Interview With International Nuclear Non-

Proliferation and Disarmament Commission Co-Chair Gareth Evans

A Joint Enterprise: Diplomacy to Achieve a World Without Nuclear

Weapons. Steve Andreasen

The Future of Nuclear Arms: A World United and Divided by Zero.

Randy Rydell http://www.armscontrol.org/epublish/1/v39n3

THE ATLANTIC COUNCIL OF THE UNITED STATES (ACUS)

A TEN-YEAR FRAMEWORK FOR AFGHANISTAN: EXECUTING

THE OBAMA PLAN AND BEYOND. Ashraf Ghani. ACUS April 22,

2009

There are four major threats to securing Afghanistan‘s future. First, Al

Qaeda is a renewed force moving fluidly between Afghanistan and

Pakistan. Second, an expanded, well resourced, and multifaceted

insurgency presents a continual threat to Afghan and international actors.

Third, a narcotics production, processing, and distribution network fuels

corruption and violence and is becoming concentrated in the hands of a

few nefarious individuals. And fourth, poor governance, underpinning all these problems, is

now so entrenched that many organs of government are seen as the instruments of corruption,

not of legitimacy and the rule of law. Chairman of the Institute for State Effectiveness and

former Afghan Minister of Finance Dr. Ashraf Ghani outlines a medium-term framework for

state-building in Afghanistan for the Atlantic Council. http://www.acus.org/publication/afghanistan-report

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BROOKINGS INSTITUTION

EUROPE'S PROBLEMATIC CONTRIBUTION TO POLICE TRAINING IN

AFGHANISTAN. Federiga Bindi, Visiting Fellow, Foreign Policy, Brookings Center on the

United States and Europe. The Brookings Institution, May 04, 2009

While the US is pulling military forces out of Iraq to put in Afghanistan, they still need a very

robust civilian capability in Iraq and don‘t have the resources for a significant civilian surge in

Afghanistan. In all, there will be a surge of 21.000 US troops and of … around 200 civilians

(!). At least ten times more people are needed for mentoring activities – including retired

government officials, CEOs, judges etc. who could bring their own expertise to the area. This is

where Europe can make a difference. In turn, Afghanistan will be an international

‗matriculation test‘ for the European Union. The EU can to take up this challenge by focusing

on the areas in which it can offer tangible added-value: governance and the rule of law. http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2009/0504_afghanistan_bindi.aspx

FIRST 100 DAYS: GRADING OBAMA’S FOREIGN POLICY. Michael E. O'Hanlon,

Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy. Brookings Institution, April 29, 2009

It‘s no great surprise in American politics these days, but already a great partisan debate has

broken out about President Obama‘s foreign policy effectiveness to date. For his enthusiasts,

the United States has hit the ―reset‖ button and is reclaiming its place as not only a strong

country, but a respected leader among nations. For his detractors, Obama is making the world

dangerous by apologizing for America‘s alleged misdeeds of the past, naively talking with

dictators, and cutting the defense budget. http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2009/0429_obama_ohanlon.aspx

CUBA: A NEW POLICY OF CRITICAL AND CONSTRUCTIVE

ENGAGEMENT. Brookings Institution. Carlos Pascual and Vicki

Huddleton. April 2009.

The authors, by testing the responses of several strategic actors and

stakeholders, the Cuban hierarchy, independent civil society, and the

international and Cuban American communities, to a variety of scenarios,

have identified potential catalysts and constraints to political change on

the island. They conclude that the United States should adopt a policy of

critical and constructive engagement, phased-in unilaterally. http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/reports/2009/0413_cuba/0413_cuba.pdf

[PDF format, 25 pages].

FORCE ALONE WON'T DEFEAT SOMALI PIRACY. Hady Amr and Areej Noor.

Brookings Doha Center. Published in The Daily Star, April 24, 2009

Piracy in the high seas is always a symptom of chronic issues on land. Thus, in addition to

bolstering maritime security, the international response to piracy off the coast of Somalia must

focus on the core problems of the country, such as the lack of good governance and economic

growth. Even in the context of Africa, Somalia has been among the poorest and most unruly

countries of the past two decades, with a per capita GNP of a few hundred dollars per year (so

low, that it is hard to calculate) and a state of near-anarchy that has only just ended. http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2009/0424_piracy_amr.aspx

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CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE

RECONCILING WITH THE TALIBAN? TOWARD AN

ALTERNATIVE GRAND STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN. Ashley J.

Tellis. Carnegie Report, April 2009

Negotiating with the Taliban—who are convinced military victory is within

sight—is the worst possible approach to stabilizing Afghanistan, and one

that would fail. Ashley J. Tellis warns that U.S. signals of impatience and a

desire for an early exit could motivate insurgents to maintain a hard line and

outlast the international coalition. Though costly, a long-term commitment to

building an effective Afghan state is the only way to achieve victory and

defend U.S. national security objectives. http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=22981

CENTER FOR A NEW AMERICAN SECURITY

U.S.-DPRK NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS: A SURVEY OF THE

POLICY LITERATURE. Lindsey Ford, Zachary Hosford, Michael

Zubrow. Working Paper. Center for a New American Security,

04/25/2009

North Korea‘s nuclear program is one of the longest-standing and most

difficult proliferation challenges the United States faces today. In many

ways, the regime and its nuclear program stand as relics of the Cold War,

seemingly at odds with the rapid development of the rest of the Asia-

Pacific. Yet as negotiations have dragged on through the post-Cold War

and post-9/11 eras, the nature of the North Korean threat has evolved and become interwoven

with the new challenges of the 21st century. http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Working%20Paper_DPRK_Literature%20Review_Apr2009.pdf

THE PAST AND PRESENT AS PROLOGUE: FUTURE WARFARE

THROUGH THE LENS OF CONTEMPORARY CONFLICTS.

General Robert H. Scales. A Report. CNAS 04/01/2009

April 2009 - Eight years of war have given the U.S. military an

unparalleled opportunity to translate real war experience into a vision of

how conflicts will be fought in the future. Getting a vision of the future

more right than wrong depends on the military‘s ability to sift through

experiences gathered from combat to discern those that will endure. This

monograph seeks to do just that. http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/Scales_Past%20and%20Present_April2009.pdf

UNCHARTED WATERS: THE U.S. NAVY AND NAVIGATING

CLIMATE CHANGE. Sharon Burke, Jay Gulledge, et al. Working Paper.

CNAS 03/30/2009

In the summer of 2008, Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Gary Roughead,

asked the Center for a New American Security to conduct a brief survey of the

challenges global climate change may pose for the U.S. Navy over the next 30

years. The report was submitted to the CNO in December 2008. The Navy has

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since given permission to CNAS to release the report to the public. http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Working%20Paper_CNO_ClimateChange_BurkePatel_Dec2008.pdf

CENTER FOR ARMS CONTROL AND NON-PROLIFERATION

PRESIDENT OBAMA: 100 DAYS OF SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS. John Isaacs. Center

for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, April 28, 2009

With 100 days now behind him and more than 1,000 left to go in his first term, President

Barack Obama has given us much to celebrate – especially when compared to the dismal years

of the Bush administration. President Obama has already laid the foundation for a bold new

direction in U.S. foreign policy. He has offered a multilateral and nuanced approach to

international relations and has refused to divide the world into ―good guys and bad guys.‖

Obama‘s revitalization of the arms control process is particularly significant. Today there are

new – and perhaps unprecedented – opportunities for great progress on reducing and securing

nuclear weapons stockpiles. http://www.armscontrolcenter.org/policy/nuclearweapons/articles/042809_obama_100_days/

THE RRW'S VACUUM TUBE MYTH. Jeffrey Lewis and Kingston Reif. Article

published in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Online, May 1, 2009

U.S. nuclear weapons are marvels of engineering and design. Within each warhead, scientists

have packed an intricate web of plastics, explosives, electronics, and fissile material that

contains the bomb's destructive force. Since implementing a moratorium on nuclear testing in

1992, the United States has opted to extend the life of existing warheads while minimizing

deviations from the original specifications. Exact replication isn't always possible; suppliers go

out of business, manufacturing techniques change, and so on. Worried about the eventual

accumulation of small changes over decades, the Bush administration proposed the RRW

Program to introduce new, untested--but hopefully more reliable--nuclear weapons into the

U.S. stockpile. Enter the vacuum tube: the perfect symbol of technological obsolescence.

Despite Chilton's dramatic flair, however, vacuum tubes are among the least consequential

parts of current weapons and have nothing to do with the RRW debate. http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/op-eds/the-rrws-vacuum-tube-myth

CENTER FOR PUBLIC INTEGRITY

FRAUD CASES FELL WHILE PENTAGON CONTRACTS SURGED. Center for Public

Integrity. Nick Schwellenbach. April 1, 2009.

The number of defense contracting fraud and corruption cases sent by government

investigators to prosecutors dropped precipitously under the Bush administration, even as

contracting by the Defense Department almost doubled, according to the report. The Defense

Department investigators during the Bush administration sent 76 percent fewer contracting

fraud and corruption cases to the Justice Department for potential criminal prosecution than

under Clinton, according to Justice Department data analyzed by the Center.

http://www.publicintegrity.org/articles/entry/1243/ [HTML format, various paging].

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CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES (CSIS)

IRAQ: TRENDS IN VIOLENCE AND CIVILIAN

CASUALTIES:2005-2009. Anthony Cordesman, Burke Chair in

Strategy. CSIS, May 5, 2009

The last few weeks have been filled with grim reports of suicide and

bombing attacks in Iraq. They serve as a warning that the struggle

against Al Qa‘ida in Iraq, Shi‘ite extremists in the Mahdi Army, and

other causes of civil violence are not over. As US officials and

commanders have repeatedly warned, the situation is ―fragile‖ at best. At the same time, they

need to be kept in perspective. The rise in violence is neither as sudden or as unexpected as

some reporting suggests and there is still reason to hope that Iraq can move forward towards

security and stability. http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/090504_iraq_patterns_in_violence.pdf

AN EXPANDED MANDATE FOR PEACE BUILDING: The State

Department Role in Peace Diplomacy, Reconstruction, and

Stabilization. Dane F. Smith Jr. CSIS April 30, 2009

This first of two related reports examines the evolution of peace building

in the U.S. State Department. It begins with a sketch of the role of

diplomacy in peace building. It reviews the leadership role of the

secretary of state. It proceeds to an examination of multi-bureau

involvement in the reconstruction and stabilization efforts in Afghanistan

and Iran. It assesses the central role of individual geographic bureaus in

particular conflicts and the special peace-building tasks of several functional bureaus. The bulk

of the report is devoted to a description and evaluation of the Office of the Coordinator for

Reconstruction and Stabilization. The author concludes that traditional peace-building

diplomacy, led by the geographic bureaus, has been uneasily and incompletely yoked with the

work of the Coordinator‘s Office, and he advances suggestions for reform. http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/090423_smith_expandedmandate_web.pdf

FOREIGN ASSISTANCE FOR PEACE: The U.S. Agency for

International Development. Dane F. Smith Jr. CSIS. April 30, 2009

This second of two related reports looks at the peace-building function at

the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). It examines the

evolution of reconstruction and stabilization (R&S) in the Bush

administration‘s foreign assistance strategy and describes the effort to

integrate the State Department–USAID budget process for foreign

operations, including peace building. It then examines the organizational

architecture for dealing with conflict, as it has evolved in the Bureau of

Democracy, Conflict and Humanitarian Assistance. The examination focuses on the creation of

the Office of Transition Assistance and the Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation, but

it also delineates the role of other offices more tangentially concerned with R&S. It then

reviews the work of USAID‘s geographic bureaus in responding to conflict. It ends with

recommendations for reform. http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/090429_smith_foreignassistance_web.pdf

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U.S. GLOBAL HEALTH AND NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY.

Center for Strategic & International Studies. Harley Feldbaum. April

20, 2009.

The paper recommends an increased focus on global surveillance and

response capacity, heightened attention to the World Health

Organization‘s International Health Regulations, and putting a high

priority on meeting the health needs of developing countries as core

elements of a U.S. strategy to address the national security threats of

emerging infectious diseases and bioterrorism. http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/090420_feldbaum_usglobalhealth.pdf [PDF format, 15 pages].

CENTURY FOUNDATION (TCF)

FIGHTING OFF FATIGUE: THE UN CORNERSTONE OF ANTITERRORISM

ACTION. Jeffrey Laurenti, 5/1/2009

In an article published in a new volume by Italy‘s Istituto Affari Internazionali, TCF senior

fellow Jeffrey Laurenti argues that in confronting international terrorism, the United Nations—

long derided in influential Washington circles as an ineffective talkshop more concerned with

rights than with results—is increasingly emerging as the bulwark to sustain antiterrorism action

globally as signs multiply of growing fatigue with the issue in many capitals and among

publics. http://www.iai.it/pdf/Quaderni/Quaderni_E_15_selection.pdf

NUCLEAR ISSUE UNITES CONSERVATIVES AND REFORMISTS. Geneive Abdo,

The Century Foundation, 4/27/2009

For Iranians, advanced nuclear technology is a matter of national pride and Iran‘s sovereign

rights, which Iranians believe were denied them for many decades, first under British and

Soviet influence and later by the United States in 1953 through a CIA-backed overthrow of an

elected government that returned the Shah to power. Further, Iran‘s leadership and the public

firmly believe that a double-standard exists in the international community: although countries

such as Israel and Pakistan are advanced nuclear powers, Iran, by virtue of being an Islamic

republic, should be forbidden from having a nuclear program. http://www.tcf.org/list.asp?type=NC&pubid=2290

COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER AT WEST POINT, U.S. MILITARY ACADEMY

DYSFUNCTION AND DECLINE:LESSONS LEARNED FROM

INSIDE AL-QA`IDA IN IRAQ. Brian Fishman.The Combating

Terrorism Center at West Point, March 16, 2009

Dysfunction and Decline: Lessons Learned from Inside al-Qa`ida in Iraq

is the latest in a series of CTC reports based in part on documents

declassified from the Department of Defense‘s Harmony Database. It is

being released along with a collection of declassified Harmony documents

that informed the report.

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Drawing on al-Qa`ida in Iraq‘s own lessons-learned documents, Dysfunction and Decline

identifies a number of structural weaknesses that contributed to AQI‘s decline, including

creating unrealistic expectations among foreign fighters, weak indoctrination and training

mechanisms, and command and control structures that diluted command authority within the

group. http://www.ctc.usma.edu/harmony/pdf/DD_FINAL_FINAL.pdf

COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS

THE NATIONAL INTEREST AND THE LAW OF THE SEA. Scott G.

Borgerson, Visiting Fellow for Ocean Governance. Council Special Report

No. 46. Council on Foreign Relations Press, May 2009

The oceans have long been a critical arena for international relations. Before

there was air travel and instantaneous communication, people, goods, and

ideas traveled the world by ship. For centuries a strong maritime presence—

both military and commercial—has been essential for states with great power

aspirations. Today, even with advances in technology, seaborne commerce

remains the linchpin of the global economy. As the International Maritime

Organization reports, ―more than 90 percent of global trade is carried by sea.‖ And beyond trade,

a host of other issues, ranging from climate change and energy to defense and piracy, ensure that

the oceans will hold considerable strategic interest well into the future. In this Council Special

Report, Scott G. Borgerson explores an important element of the maritime policy regime: the

United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/LawoftheSea_CSR46.pdf

STABILIZING PAKISTAN: BOOSTING ITS PRIVATE SECTOR. Council on Foreign

Relations. Jayshree Bajoria. April 30, 2009.

Amid a growing insurgency and escalating economic troubles in Pakistan, President Obama

says the United States must "help Pakistan help Pakistanis." Strengthening the country's private

sector and boosting trade opportunities could underpin security. http://www.cfr.org/publication/19260/stabilizing_pakistan.html?breadcrumb=%2F

SHARIA AND MILITANCY. Council on Foreign Relations. Toni Johnson. April 22, 2009.

Experts say Islamic law, or sharia, holds wide appeal for Muslim populations in many

countries and is beginning to spread via democratic means, but it is also being used as a tool of

Islamic militancy and extremism. http://www.cfr.org/publication/19155/sharia_and_militancy.html?breadcrumb=%2Fpublication%2Fby_type%2Fbackgrounder

AFGHANISTAN’S NATIONAL SECURITY FORCES. Council on Foreign Relations.

Greg Bruno. April 16, 2009.

The growth and continued improvement of Afghanistan's domestic security forces is seen as

key to an eventual U.S. exit, but some analysts caution that progress, already slow, will remain

strained. http://www.cfr.org/publication/19122/afghanistans_national_security_forces.html?breadcrumb=%2Fregion%2F280%2Fafghanistan

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U.S. – CUBA RELATIONS. Council on Foreign Relations. Stephanie Hanson. April 14,

2009.

Cuba has been at odds with the United States since Fidel Castro assumed power in 1959.

Successive U.S. administrations have tried a range of tough measures, including prolonged

economic sanctions and designation of Cuba as a State Sponsor of Terrorism, none of which

substantially weakened Castro's rule. According to the study, despite stirrings of U.S. economic

interest in Cuba and some policy softening under President Barack Obama, experts say that

normalization of U.S.-Cuba relations is unlikely in the near to medium term. http://www.cfr.org/publication/11113/uscuba_relations.html?breadcrumb=%2Fpublication%2Fby_type%2Fbackgrounder [HTML format, various paging].

U.S. NUCLEAR WEAPONS POLICY. Task Force Report No. 62.

William J. Perry, Professor, Stanford University; Brent Scowcroft,

Resident Trustee, The Forum for International Policy. Council on

Foreign Relations, April 2009

In his April 5 Prague speech, President Obama called for the United States to

lead international efforts toward a world free of nuclear weapons. This new

Council on Foreign Relations–sponsored Independent Task Force report, co-

chaired by former secretary of defense William J. Perry and former national

security adviser Brent Scowcroft, says that while ―the geopolitical conditions

that would permit the global elimination of nuclear weapons do not currently exist,‖ steps can

be taken now to diminish the danger of nuclear proliferation and nuclear use. The report

focuses on near-term policies to reduce nuclear weapons to the lowest possible level consistent

with maintaining a credible deterrent, while also ensuring that the U.S. nuclear arsenal is safe,

secure, and reliable for as long as it is needed. http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Nuclear_Weapons_TFR62.pdf

FEDERATION OF AMERICAN SCIENTISTS

FROM COUNTERFORCE TO MINIMAL DETERRENCE. Federation

of American Scientists & The Natural Resources Defense Council. Hans

M. Kristensen et al. April 2009.

The report calls for fundamental changes to U.S. nuclear war planning, a

prerequisite if smaller nuclear arsenals are to be achieved. It seeks to abandon

the almost five-decade-long central mission for U.S. nuclear forces, which

has been and continues to be ―counterforce,‖ the capability for U.S. forces to

destroy an enemy‘s military forces, its weapons, its command and control

facilities and its key leaders.

http://www.fas.org/pubs/_docs/OccasionalPaper7.pdf [PDF format, 35 pages].

FOREIGN POLICY IN FOCUS (FPIF)

MARTYRDOM'S STRATEGY: SUICIDE BOMBERS TARGET OBAMA'S

WITHDRAWAL PLAN. Steve Niva. Foreign Policy In Focus, May 5, 2009

Suicide bombings are back in Iraq, signaling that the Iraq War is far from over. After a

significant downturn, with only six suicide attacks between December 2008 and March 2009,

there have been 25 suicide bombings in Iraq in the last two months, contributing to the worst

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spate of violence in Iraq in nearly a year. The bombers have revealed a new audacity and

sophistication, striking in all parts of the country and against many seemingly highly secured

targets. http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/6100

OBAMA'S FIRST 100 DAYS: FOREIGN POLICY. John Feffer Foreign Policy In Focus,

April 27, 2009

The Bush administration transformed the way the United States dealt with the world. It invaded

two countries, began a war on terror that had no geographic or time limits, boosted military

spending, acted unilaterally, and ignored international law. Although his second term was more

pragmatic than his first — with an important reversal on North Korea policy and

rapprochement with Libya — George W. Bush generally emphasized military force over

diplomatic negotiations, acting more like a cowboy than a statesman. Barack Obama promised

a different foreign policy: more diplomatic, more modest, more in keeping with international

institutions and international law. http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/6074

GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE UNITED STATES

AMERICA’S NEW NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT POLICY AND

THE TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONSHIP. Gilles Andréani. GMF

Policy Brief, May 4, 2009

In his speech in Prague, Czech Republic, on April 5, 2009, U.S. President

Barack Obama outlined his ultimate goal of a world without nuclear

weapons. Obama confirmed the U.S. availability for dialogue with Iran

and that he is flexible on missile defense in Europe, which the United

States would need to pursue only if the Iranian nuclear threat

materialized. He also delivered a strong message ("violations must be

punished") to North Korea after it had just renewed testing of a long range missile. These

proposals stand in almost complete reversal to the Bush administration's stance on nuclear

issues. Europeans have in general been frustrated by the lack of interest in arms control shown

by the previous administration. The important fact in the aftermath of the Prague speech is that

the U.S. president has presented U.S. allies with a number of specific measures that serve both

sides' interests and together provide a more viable view of the balance to be achieved between

nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament. They should concentrate their energy on making

this agenda happen and transforming it into viable policy. http://www.gmfus.org//doc/Gilles_ObamaApril5Speech_FINAL.pdf

THE MYTH OF “EXPORTING” DEMOCRACY: LESSONS FROM

EASTERN EUROPE AFTER 1989. John K. Glenn. GMF Policy Brief,

April 21, 2009

As the Obama administration defines its foreign policy agenda, voices

around the world caution that the West cannot "export" democracy and

should adapt more "modest" foreign policies. This year marks the 20th

anniversary of the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe, providing

an opportune moment to review lessons learned in the postcommunist

world that suggest that the United States and Europe should not retreat

from their support for democratic reform abroad, but rather redefine the place of democracy

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promotion in a revitalized transatlantic agenda. Foreign policy debates suggest that the lessons

learned from the postcommunist world since 1989 must be reinforced and learned anew.

Backsliding and rising authoritarianism has led experts to warn against "democratic

pessimism" that could lead policymakers to pull back their support for democracy abroad. http://www.gmfus.org//doc/glenn_04132009.pdf

HERITAGE FOUNDATION

INDEPENDENT PANEL NEEDED FOR ALTERNATIVE VIEWS TO THE

PENTAGON'S QUADRENNIAL DEFENSE REVIEW. Mackenzie Eaglen and Eric

Sayers. Heritage Foundation WebMemo #2425. May 5, 2009

Over the course of the next several months, senior Department of Defense (DoD) officials will

conduct the congressionally-mandated Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR). This broad

examination of national defense strategy, modernization, and force structure will establish a

defense planning program that will direct how the Pentagon allocates its significant resources

for the next 20 years. This strategy guides the planning and programming for service budgets--

and, by extension, what the military purchases, including vehicles, tanks, ships, aircraft, and

other essential equipment. http://www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/wm2425.cfm

STRATEGIC NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL FOR THE PROTECT

AND DEFEND STRATEGY. Andrei Shoumikhin, Ph.D. and Baker

Spring. Heritage Foundation Backgrounder #2266. May 4, 2009

The Obama Administration has declared its deter­mination "to stop the

development of new nuclear weapons; work with Russia to take U.S. and

Russian ballistic missiles off hair trigger alert; and seek dra­matic

reductions in U.S. and Russian stockpiles of nuclear weapons and

material." In line with these goals and the promise "to extend a hand if

others are willing to unclench their fist," the Administration has rushed to

renew negotiations with the Russian Feder­ation (RF) on a follow-on agreement to the

Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) and broader areas of cooperation. The negotiations

will seek to reduce the number of nuclear weapons and prevent further pro­liferation, in

accordance with the joint statements issued by President Barack Obama and Russian Presi­dent

Dmitry Medvedev in London on April 1, 2009. http://www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/upload/bg_2266.pdf

REVIVING PAKISTAN'S PLURALIST TRADITIONS TO FIGHT

EXTREMISM. Lisa Curtis. Heritage Foundation Backgrounder #2268,

May 4, 2009

Pakistan is in the midst of rapid political shifts that are challenging the

leadership's ability to maintain cohesion within the country and even

raising ques­tions about Pakistan's ability to survive as a viable nation-

state over the next few years. Pakistan has long suffered from ethnic and

sectarian divisions. However, the recent threat from a well-armed and

well-orga­nized Islamist insurgency pushing to establish strict Islamic law

in the entire country, beginning with the North West Frontier Province (NWFP), adds a new

and more dangerous dimension to the country's chal­lenges. Although the collapse of the

Pakistani state may not be imminent, as some have recently argued, the government's surrender

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of the Swat Valley is a major victory for Islamist extremists seeking to carve out pockets of

influence within the country. http://www.heritage.org/Research/AsiaandthePacific/bg2268.cfm

100 DAYS OF GOOD, BAD, AND UGLY: FOREIGN POLICY AND NATIONAL

SECURITY. Fact Sheet #1627 by heritage.org, April 2009

Iraq and Afghanistan: In his first 100 days, President Obama has largely continued to

implement the strategic course laid out by the Bush Administration in Iraq, Afghanistan, and

Pakistan, which makes sense. U.S. vital interests do not change because of partisan shifts in

power, and neither do the facts on the ground, the resources available to the nation, or the

enemy's objectives. http://www.heritage.org/Press/FactSheet/fs0016.cfm

100 DAYS OF OBAMA'S PRESIDENCY: SERIOUS QUESTIONS ON NATIONAL

SECURITY STRATEGIES. James Jay Carafano, Ph.D. Heritage Foundation WebMemo

#2412 April 27, 2009

While marking the first hundred days of a new presidency is a tradition that dates back to the

presidency of Franklin Roosevelt, the focus of media hype and pundit analysis usually focuses

on domestic policies--grading how effectively a new leader can shape Washington's agenda.

Matters of foreign policy and national security, on the other hand, do not lend themselves

readily to a 100-day agenda. http://www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/wm2412.cfm

COMPLEX SYSTEMS ANALYSIS-A NECESSARY TOOL FOR

HOMELAND SECURITY. James Jay Carafano, Ph.D. and Richard

Weitz, Ph.D. Heritage Foundation Backgrounder #2261. April 16, 2009

As President Barack Obama rightly noted in one of his first directives, his

"highest priority is to keep the American people safe."[1] Addressing

homeland security challenges effectively requires understanding them.

Many of the threats the United States faces, and many of the means

available to counter them, are embedded in webs of complex systems that

surround everyday life—from the transportation networks that move

goods and people to the electrical grids that power the nation. http://www.heritage.org/Research/HomelandSecurity/upload/bg_2261.pdf

NATO'S 60TH ANNIVERSARY SUMMIT: UNFOCUSED AND UNSUCCESSFUL. Sally

McNamara. Heritage Foundation WebMemo #2388. April 8, 2009

In spite of President Obama's high personal approval ratings among Europeans, he did not

further American interests at NATO's 60th anniversary summit last weekend. The President

was unable to secure much-needed European combat troops for the mission in Afghanistan,

and the lengthier-than-usual summit declaration put on ice crucial agenda items such as

enlargement of the alliance and missile defense. The summit was a quintessentially European

affair, advancing Franco-German priorities such as an EU defense identity and an upgrading of

NATO-Russian relations. And for the first time in an official communiqué, climate change was

categorized as a safety and security issue. http://www.heritage.org/Research/Europe/upload/wm_2388.pdf

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HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH

UNDER THE COVER OF WAR: HAMAS AND POLITICAL

VIOLENCE IN GAZA. Human Rights Watch. April 20, 2009.

The study documents a pattern since late December 2008 of arbitrary

arrests and detentions, torture, maiming, by shooting, and extrajudicial

executions by alleged members of Hamas security forces. The report is

based on interviews with victims and witnesses in Gaza and case reports

by Palestinian human rights groups. http://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/reports/iopt0409web.pdf

RAIN OF FIRE: ISRAEL’S UNLAWFUL USE OF WHITE

PHOSPHORUS IN GAZA. Human Rights Watch. March 26, 2008.

The report documents Israel's extensive use of white phosphorus

munitions during its 22-day military operations in Gaza, from December

27, 2008 to January 18, 2009. The report concludes that the Israel

Defense Forces (IDF) repeatedly exploded white phosphorus munitions

in the air over populated areas, killing and injuring civilians, and

damaging civilian structures, including a school, a market, a humanitarian

aid warehouse and a hospital. White phosphorus munitions did not kill

the most civilians in Gaza, many more died from missiles, bombs, heavy artillery, tank shells,

and small arms fire, but their use in densely populated neighborhoods, including downtown

Gaza City, violated international humanitarian law, the laws of war, which requires taking all

feasible precautions to avoid civilian harm and prohibits indiscriminate attacks.

http://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/reports/iopt0309web.pdf [PDF format, 75 pages].

INSTITUTE FOR FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS, INC. (IFPA)

REALIGNING PRIORITIES: THE U.S.-JAPAN ALLIANCE AND

THE FUTURE OF EXTENDED DETERRENCE. James L. Schoff. A

Project Report by the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis 2009

North Korea‘s recent missile/rocket launch over Japan and recent U.S.-

China maritime skirmishes in the South China Sea remind us that the

nature of deterrence and extended deterrence in East Asia is changing.

Existential threats are perhaps less serious than during the Cold War, but

the number and types of threats have multiplied in the region, and the old

symbols of deterrence, such as the U.S. nuclear umbrella, are losing their

vitality (and perhaps their relevance on the middle and lower rungs of the conflict escalation

ladder). Extended deterrence in the U.S.-Japan alliance is under pressure because it is more

complicated than before, and this challenge comes at a time when America‘s and Japan‘s

security priorities are diverging. This report examines the security picture from Japan‘s

perspective, discusses the evolving deterrence debates in both countries, and looks at why and

how Japan might consider new approaches to ensuring its security in the future (including the

potential for Japan to develop its own nuclear deterrent http://www.ifpa.org/pdf/RealignPriorities.pdf

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FINDING THE RIGHT MIX: DISASTER DIPLOMACY,

NATIONAL SECURITY, AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION.

Charles M. Perry & Marina Travayiakis . Institute for Foreign Policy

Analysis 2009

Disaster relief operations – such as the massive efforts after the December

2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the October 2005 earthquake in Pakistan

– have become an increasingly prominent part of America‘s diplomatic

repertoire, and one in which its military forces are playing an ever more

central role. Beyond their obvious humanitarian benefits, moreover, these

operations can yield significant strategic value for the United States, as well as for its allies and

coalition partners. Among other benefits, they can help eliminate sources of instability that

terrorists could exploit. They can also help build or restore cooperative military ties that may

prove useful in other mission areas, provide regional powers with the chance to demonstrate

new-found military capabilities in a non-provocative manner, and establish goodwill in areas

where it had been latent at best. As a result, such operations can be vital tools for winning the

―battle for hearts and minds‖ in the global war on terror. http://www.ifpa.org/pdf/TheRightMix.pdf

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP (ICG)

HAITI: SAVING THE ENVIRONMENT, PREVENTING INSTABILITY AND

CONFLICT. International Crisis Group. April 28, 2009.

Reversing a trend of environmental destruction is essential to Haiti‘s development, social and

economic stability and, ultimately, security. Instability and violent conflict are not attributable

solely to environmental degradation. But they are made more likely by the latter‘s interaction

with such factors as weak institutions and governance, political fragility, pervasive and extreme

poverty, vulnerability to natural disasters, rapid population growth, urban overcrowding and

social and economic inequality, according to the report. http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/latin_america/aiti___saving_the_environment__preventing_instability_and_conflict.pdf

GAZA’S UNFINISHED BUSINESS. International Crisis Group. April 23, 2009.

The Israel-Hamas war has ended but none of the factors that triggered it have been addressed.

Three months after unilateral ceasefires, Gaza‘s crossings are largely shut, reconstruction and

rehabilitation have yet to begin and Palestinians are deeply divided. The status quo is

unsustainable, and Gaza once again is an explosion waiting to happen, says the author. http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/middle_east___north_africa/arab_israeli_conflict/85_gazas_unfinished_business.pdf

CHINA’S GROWING ROLE IN UN PEACEKEEPING. International Crisis Group. April

17, 2009.

Over the past twenty years China has become an active participant in U.N. peacekeeping, a

development that will benefit the international community. Beijing has the capacity to expand

its contributions further and should be encouraged to do so, according to the report. China‘s

approach to peacekeeping has evolved considerably since it assumed its UN Security Council

(UNSC) seat in 1971, when it rejected the entire concept of peacekeeping. http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/asia/north_east_asia/166_chinas_growing_role_in_un_peacekeeping.pdf

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NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY (NDU)

THE FUTURE OF PAKISTAN-U.S. RELATIONS:

OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES. Maleeha Lodhi. INSS

Special Report.Institute for National Strategic Studies, National

Defense University, April 2009

Relations between Pakistan and the United States are today defined by a

paradox. Never have ties been more vital for both countries. But never has

the relationship been so mired in mutual mistrust and suspicion. Both

countries acknowledge the crucial importance of each other for the

attainment of their respective national objectives. Pakistan is pivotal for

the achievement of the key U.S. national security goals of defeating terrorism and stabilizing

Afghanistan. But its importance goes beyond that. Pakistan is the world‘s second largest

Muslim nation and its newest nuclear power. It has a critical role to play in many of the

pressing issues of our time, such as countering violent extremism, bolstering democracy and

development, addressing issues of international peacekeeping (as the largest contributor to

United Nations troops), encouraging nuclear nonproliferation, and improving relations between

the West and the Islamic world. http://www.ndu.edu/inss/Strforum/SR_05/SR_05.pdf

A 21ST-CENTURY CONCEPT OF AIR AND MILITARY

OPERATIONS. Robbin F. Laird. Center for Technology and National

Security Polic, National Defense University. Defense Horizons Number

66. March 2009.

Air operations are a significant component of 21st-century U.S. and allied

joint and coalition operations. As fifth-generation aircraft enter service in

larger numbers, they will generate not only greater firepower, but also

significantly greater integrated capability for the nonkinetic use of aircraft

and an expanded use of connectivity, intelligence, surveillance, and

reconnaissance (ISR), communications, and computational capabilities built around a man-

machine interface that will, in turn, shape the robotics and precision revolutions already under

way. The capability of air assets to connect air, ground, and maritime forces throughout the

battlespace can support the decisionmaking of ground and maritime command elements. http://www.ndu.edu/ctnsp/defense_horizons/DH_66.pdf

HYBRID THREATS: RECONCEPTUALIZING THE EVOLVING

CHARACTER OF MODERN CONFLICT. Frank G. Hoffman.

Strategic Forum No. 240. Institute for National Strategic Studies,

National Defense University April 2009

America‘s ongoing battles in Afghanistan and Iraq have highlighted

limitations in our understanding of the complexity of modern warfare.

Furthermore, our cultural prism has retarded the institutionalization of

capabilities needed to prevail in stabilization and counter- insurgency

missions. An ongoing debate about future threats is often framed as a

dichotomous choice between counterinsurgency and conventional war. This oversimplifies

defense planning and resource allocation decisions. Instead of fundamentally different

approaches, we should expect competitors who will employ all forms of war, perhaps

simultaneously. Such multimodal threats are often called hybrid threats. Hybrid adversaries

employ combinations of capabilities to gain an asymmetric advantage. Thus, the choice is not

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simply one of preparing for long-term stability operations or high-intensity conflict. We must

be able to do both simultaneously against enemies far more ruthless than today‘s. http://www.ndu.edu/inss/Strforum/SF240/SF240.pdf

PIRACY OFF THE COAST OF SOMALIA. National Defense University Library. April

2009.

The site offers compilation of resources that outline the response of the U.S. Government and

the international community to piracy off the coast of Somalia, the scope and consequences of

the problem, and identify some strategic options that are available to combat this growing

menace. http://merln.ndu.edu/index.cfm?secID=263&pageID=35&type=section [HTML format with links].

SOCIAL SOFTWARE AND NATIONAL SECURITY: AN INITIAL NET

ASSESSMENT. National Defense University. Mark Drapeau and Linton Wells II. April

2009.

Social software connects people and information via online, informal Internet networks. It is

appearing in increasingly diverse forms as part of a broad movement commonly called Web

2.0. Social software can be used by governments for content creation, external collaboration,

community building, and other applications. The proliferation of social software has

ramifications for U.S. national security, spanning future operating challenges of a traditional,

irregular, catastrophic, or disruptive nature. Governments that harness its potential power can

interact better with citizens and anticipate emerging issues. http://www.ndu.edu/ctnsp/Def_Tech/DTP61_SocialSoftwareandNationalSecurity.pdf

[PDF format, 42 pages].

ALLIANCE REBORN: AN ATLANTIC COMPACT FOR THE 21ST

CENTURY-A report of the Washington NATO Project. February

2009

This major policy report with fresh, independent ideas and analysis on the

future roles and missions of the NATO Alliance calls for a reinvigorated

Atlantic partnership to tackle global challenges and a new structure for

NATO that rebalances its ―home and away missions,‖ forges a fuller

partnership with the European Union and other institutions, reorients

Alliance military capabilities, reforms command arrangements, and

changes decision-making, spending, and management practices. It also proposes urgent shifts

in NATO strategy in Afghanistan and relations with Russia.

The paper was written by The Washington NATO Project, a cooperative effort by four U.S.

think tanks. They are: the Atlantic Council of the United States; the Center for Strategic and

International Studies (CSIS); the Center for Technology and National Security Policy

(CTNSP), National Defense University (NDU); and the Center for Transatlantic Relations

(CTR) at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins

University. The authors of the report are Daniel Hamilton, Charles Barry, Hans Binnendijk,

Stephen Flanagan, Julianne Smith, and James Townsend. http://www.ndu.edu/ctnsp/NATO_Alliance.htm

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NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL

GLOBAL SECURITY ENGAGEMENT: A NEW MODEL FOR

COOPERATIVE THREAT REDUCTION. National Research Council.

March 2009.

The report urges White House to lead the reformulation of U.S. Cooperative

Threat Reduction (CTR) programs to focus on combating international

terrorism and other current threats. The government‘s first CTR programs

were created in 1991 to eliminate the former Soviet Union‘s nuclear,

chemical, and other weapons and prevent their proliferation. Originally

designed to deal with immediate post-Cold War challenges, the programs

must be expanded to other regions and fundamentally redesigned as an active tool of foreign

policy that can address contemporary threats from groups that are that are agile, networked,

and adaptable.

http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12583 [HTML format with links to PDF files].

RAND

JUSTIFICATION AND OPTIONS FOR CREATING U.S.

CAPABILITIES. Terrence K. Kelly et al. RAND Corporation. May 2009

Establishing security is the sine qua non of stability operations, since it is a

prerequisite for reconstruction and development. Security requires a mix of

military and police forces to deal with a range of threats from insurgents to

criminal organizations. This research examines the creation of a high-end

police force, which the authors call a Stability Police Force (SPF). The study

considers what size force is necessary, how responsive it needs to be, where

in the government it might be located, what capabilities it should have, how

it could be staffed, and its cost. This monograph also considers several options for locating this

force within the U.S. government, including the U.S. Marshals Service, the U.S. Secret

Service, the Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs (INL) in the

Department of State, and the U.S. Army's Military Police. The authors conclude that an SPF

containing 6,000 people — created in the U.S. Marshals Service and staffed by a ―hybrid

option,‖ in which SPF members are federal police officers seconded to federal, state, and local

police agencies when not deployed — would be the most effective of the options considered.

The SPF would be able to deploy in 30 days. The cost for this option would be $637.3 million

annually, in FY2007 dollars. http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG819.pdf

WHAT ARE U.S. POLICY OPTIONS FOR DEALING WITH SECURITY IN MEXICO?

RAND Corporation. April 28, 2009.

In light of a worsening security situation in Mexico, the study identifies three U.S. policy

options for dealing with Mexico‘s security issues, strategic partnership, status quo, and

retrenchment, in terms of their impact on addressing U.S. priorities and of likely Mexican

responses. http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/2009/RAND_RB9444.pdf

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SECURITY IN MEXICO: IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. POLICY OPTIONS. Agnes

Gereben Schaefer et al. RAND Corporation. April 28, 2009.

The security structure in Mexico is characterized by shifting responsibilities, duplication of

services, and general instability, along with a lack of coordination among federal, state, and

local security forces. The backdrop of a deteriorating security situation in Mexico and change

in administration in the United States demands a closer examination of potential priorities and

policy options to guide future U.S.-Mexico relations. http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG876.pdf

RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY: SOURCES AND IMPLICATIONS. Olga Oliker et al.

RAND Corporation 2009

As Russia's economy has grown, so have the country's global involvement and influence,

which often take forms that the United States neither expects nor likes, as the August 2008

conflict in Georgia demonstrated. Despite the two countries' many disagreements and the rising

tension between them, the United States and Russia share some key interests and goals. The

authors assess Russia's strategic interests and the factors that influence Russian foreign policy

broadly. Further, they also consider the implications of Russia's evolving approaches for U.S.

interests. The authors find that Russia's rising confidence will continue to create challenges for

U.S. policymakers. http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG768.pdf

THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE CAN IMPROVE ITS RESPONSE TO AND

MANAGEMENT OF ANTHRAX INCIDENTS. RAND Corporation. April 20, 2009.

The brief assesses the Department of Defense (DoD) response to three potential anthrax-related

incidents at DoD facilities in March 2005 and recommends ways that DoD can improve its

incident-response capabilities. http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/2009/RAND_RB9441.pdf [PDF format, 3 pages].

IMPROVING CAPACITY FOR STABILIZATION AND

RECONSTRUCTION OPERATIONS. RAND Corporation. Nora

Bensahel et al. April 3, 2009.

Recent stabilization and reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq have

underlined the need for the United States to shift the burden of these

operations away from the Defense Department and onto other government

agencies better suited to the work, according to the study. The State

Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development, the

agencies best suited for this type of work, are not set up for large-scale, rapid

deployment, leaving the bulk of the work in the hands of the Defense Department, whose main

mission is war fighting.

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG852.pdf [PDF format, 105 pages].

U.S. STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN. RAND Corporation. Seth G. Jones. April 2, 2009.

This is the testimony presented before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Subcommittee on

Middle East and South Asia on April 2, 2009. http://www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/2009/RAND_CT324.pdf

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INITIAL EVALUATION OF THE CITIES READINESS INITIATIVE. RAND

Corporation. Henry H. Willis et al. March 24, 2009.

A federal program designed to help metropolitan public health agencies prepare to deliver

essential medicines to the public after a large-scale bioterror attack or natural disease outbreak

has succeeded in improving the level of readiness, according to the study. Researchers found

that the federal Cities Readiness Initiative, a program active in 72 metropolitan areas, appears

to have improved agencies‘ ability to rapidly and widely dispense life-saving medications and

other medical supplies in the event of a large-scale bioterror attack or a naturally occurring

infectious disease outbreak. http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/2009/RAND_TR640.pdf [PDF format, 118 pages].

THE CAPABILITIES THAT MEDIUM-ARMORED FORCES BRING TO THE FULL

SPECTRUM OF OPERATIONS. RAND Corporation. David E. Johnson et al. March

2009.

The study assesses the performance of medium-armored forces in 13 past conflicts, to better

understand their unique capabilities and inform decisions about the Future Force. http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/2009/RAND_RB9416.pdf [PDF format, 5 pages].

STANLEY FOUNDATION

REALIZING NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT- UN Issues. Stanley

Foundation Conference Report, April 2009

The world now has an historic opportunity to make significant progress in

reducing nuclear weapons—an opportunity that may only last for one or

two years. To make reductions a reality, the United States and Russia

should bring their respective arsenals down to about 1,000 weapons each

and end high-alert targeting of each other. Furthermore, the United States

and China should ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.Those are

just some of the recommendations resulting from a recent Stanley

Foundation conference that convened a mix of UN diplomats and other officials in Tarrytown,

New York, in February 2009. The group examined the first steps toward a world free of

nuclear weapons. http://www.stanleyfdn.org/publications/report/Issues09.pdf

STRATEGIC STUDIES INSTITUTE, U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE

BEYOND THE STRAIT: PLA MISSIONS OTHER THAN TAIWAN.

Edited by Mr. Roy Kamphausen, Dr. David Lai, Dr. Andrew Scobell.

Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army College. Added April 30, 2009

While preventing independence likely remains the central aim of the PLA

vis-a-vis Taiwan, Chinese foreign policy objectives worldwide are rapidly

growing and diversifying. This volume analyzes the PLA‘s involvement

in disaster and humanitarian relief, United Nations peacekeeping

operations (UNPKO), counterterrorism and border defense, security in

outer space and cyberspace, and the level of activity in regional ―joint‖

operational contingencies. On the whole, the volume provides a discerning analysis of these

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varied PLA developments and how they affect policy towards both Taiwan and the entire Asia-

Pacific region. While the significance of China has long been understood, the nation‘s rise to

prominence on the world scene is becoming more acutely felt. An understanding of the PLA‘s

growing roles both within China and internationally is of critical importance to the United

States. http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=910

NEW NATO MEMBERS: SECURITY CONSUMERS OR

PRODUCERS? Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army College. Joel R.

Hillison. April 22, 2009.

The monograph examines the burden-sharing of new members in NATO.

An analysis of the burden-sharing behavior of NATO‘s 1999 wave of new

members reveals that new NATO members have demonstrated the

willingness to contribute to NATO missions, but are often constrained by

their limited capabilities. However, new member contributions to NATO

have improved and, in comparison to older NATO members, the new

members are doing quite well. http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=916 [HTML format with a link to PDF file].

A HISTORY OF SOCIO-CULTURAL INTELLIGENCE AND

RESEARCH UNDER THE OCCUPATION OF JAPAN. Lieutenant

Colonel (USAF) Michael B. Meyer. Strategic Studies Institute, U.S.

Army College. April 15, 2009

As the Army explores how to incorporate anthropological and sociological

researchers into reconstruction efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, the author

discusses how General Douglas MacArthur and his staff fused together

the work of military socio-cultural intelligence analysts with civilian

academic sociologists to rebuild Japan. To understand what mattered most

to the Japanese as Americans entered a then-presumably precarious situation (this was not

Germany with its western mindset and traditions), intelligence analysts‘ role was seminal

during the early, demilitarization phase of rebuilding Japan. Sociologists, working closely with

Japanese nationals, contributed significantly to the democratization phase. This was perhaps

the first time in American history that sociological research supplemented traditional

intelligence analysis in informing occupational leaders. http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=914

THE NEW BALANCE: LIMITED ARMED STABILIZATION AND

THE FUTURE OF U.S. LANDPOWER. Nathan P. Freier. Strategic

Studies Institute, U.S. Army College, April 06, 2009

The Department of Defense experienced revolutionary change in its

strategic outlook over the past 8 years. As it transitions to new leadership

in the White House and undertakes a historic Quadrennial Defense

Review, it will be important for to examine the ―first principles.‖ that

guide its force planning.

http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=915

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STRATFOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE

A CHILLING EFFECT ON U.S. COUNTERTERRORISM. Stratfor Global Intelligence.

Fred Burton and Scott Stewart. April 28, 2009.

Politics and moral arguments aside, the end effect of the memos‘ release is that people who

have put their lives on the line in U.S. counterterrorism efforts are now uncertain of whether

they should be making that sacrifice. According to the authors the memos‘ release will not

have a catastrophic effect on U.S. counterterrorism efforts. Indeed, most of the information in

the memos was leaked to the press years ago and has long been public knowledge. http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090429_chilling_effect_u_s_counterterrorism

UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE

THE ROLE OF THE MINISTERIAL ADVISOR IN SECURITY SECTOR REFORM:

NAVIGATING INSTITUTIONAL TERRAINS. U.S. Institute of Peace. Liz Panarelli.

April 2009.

International actors in Security Sector Reform (SSR) are increasingly taking on roles as

―advisors‖ to Ministries of Interior, Defense, and Justice. Rather than directly implement

changes necessary for SSR, these advisors must persuasively articulate suggestions to their

local counterparts. Advisors‘ success depends on their ability to convey recommendations in a

manner that makes change acceptable to their advisees. The advising is undertaken by a diverse

range of individuals from U.S. and foreign governments, militaries, NGOs, private contractors,

and U.N. agencies.

http://library.usip.org/articles/1012185.1094/1.PDF [PDF format, 8 pages].

THE KURDS IN SYRIA: FUELING SEPARATIST MOVEMENTS

IN THE REGION? Radwan Ziadeh. USIP Special Report, April 2009

The Kurds of Syria, in contrast to the Kurds of Iraq and Turkey, are little

known in the West, but they have similarly strained relations with the state

that governs them and face human rights abuses as a minority. The Syrian

state‘s repression of its Kurdish population, which thus far has not sought

a separate state, may contribute to Kurdish claims for self-determination

in Turkey, Iran, and Iraq. http://www.usip.org/pubs/specialreports/sr220.html

CONDUCTING ELECTIONS IN DARFUR: LOOKING AHEAD TO

SUDAN’S 2009 ELECTIONS. Stephanie Schwartz. USIPeace Briefing,

March 2009

With elections planned in Sudan in 2009, the question of how residents of

the Darfur region should participate points to a number of challenges that

remain unanswered. Is the security situation in Darfur adequate to permit

elections? With so many Darfurians displaced in IDP camps, are elections

feasible? How can the widespread skepticism about elections among the

population of Darfur be overcome? Can national elections in Sudan be

credible without the inclusion of Darfur? Can Sudan‘s electoral law be implemented in Darfur?

What electoral processes can be adopted to overcome these various obstacles? http://library.usip.org/articles/1012138.1072/1.PDF

Embassy of the United States of America ▪ Public Affairs Section

Page 31 of 36

THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR-EAST POLICY

PAKISTAN ON THE BRINK: IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. POLICIES. Simon Henderson.

PolicyWatch #1513. The Washington Institute for Near-East Policy, May 4, 2009

Both the establishment of sharia (Islamic law) in Pakistan's Swat valley and last month's

advance by Taliban militants to within sixty miles of the capital, Islamabad, have raised

concerns about increased terrorist threats to the United States as well as the security of

Pakistan's nuclear weapons. It appears that Pakistan, whose president, Asif Ali Zardari, meets

President Barack Obama in Washington on May 6, is becoming the first major foreign policy

challenge for the new administration. Intense discussions have already taken place in the White

House. Early thinking on the issue suggests that events in Pakistan also affect many aspects of

U.S. Middle East policy. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3050

DISRUPTING TEHRAN'S EXPORT OF TECHNOLOGY AND WEAPONS. By Matthew

Levitt. PolicyWatch #1512. The Washington Institute for Near-East Policy, April 30, 2009

Earlier this year, Cyprus impounded the Iranian-chartered freighter Monchegorsk, a vessel

laden with war materiel bound for Syria (and perhaps beyond). This episode highlights the

shortcomings of current UN and European Union sanctions on Iran, and underscores the need

for a more systematic approach for dealing with Tehran's efforts to transfer technology and

arms to radical allies in the Middle East and elsewhere, even as Washington seeks to engage

Iran. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3049

EGYPT'S CAMPAIGN AGAINST IRAN SENDS WASHINGTON A SIGNAL. David

Pollock and Mohammad Yaghi. PolicyWatch #1507. The Washington Institute for Near-

East Policy, April 17, 2009

In the last week, Egypt has moved against Iran and its allies in the Arab world. Cairo arrested a

Hizballah cell that was preparing terrorist operations on Egyptian soil, organized a campaign

against Hamas weapons and money smugglers in the Sinai Peninsula, and stepped up efforts to

displace Qatar -- an Iranian sympathizer -- as a mediator on Sudan, Lebanon, and other inter-

Arab issues. It remains to be seen whether this policy shift will become a sustained part of a

grand strategy to restore Egypt's leadership among Arab states or, instead, a more-defensive

approach designed to parry previous humiliations from Iran's allies. It is apparent, however,

that Cairo is sending a signal to Washington that the "nuclear file" is not the only -- or even the

most urgent -- aspect of the Iranian threat. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3044

WORLD PUBLIC OPINION

CUBA POLICY AND US PUBLIC OPINION. World Public Opinion. Stephen Weber et

al. April 15, 2009.

A majority of Americans feel that it is time to try a new approach to Cuba, according to a

national poll by WorldPublicOpinion.org. More specifically, the public favors lifting the ban

on travel to Cuba for Americans and re-establishing diplomatic relations as well as other

changes. http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/pdf/apr09/Cuba_Apr09_packet.pdf

Embassy of the United States of America ▪ Public Affairs Section

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YALE CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF GLOBALIZATION

THE KOREAS: A TALE OF TWO TRIANGLES. Yale Center for the Study of

Globalization. Han Sung-Joo. April 10, 2009.

Underneath friendly competition between the U.S. and China, there is the potential for

instability and conflict. It gives countries like South Korea not only with the chance to mediate

between the two powers and play a larger role on the world stage, but also with the challenge

of maintaining neutrality. According to the author, such opportunities can be understood better

by imagining interlocking triangles in which the US and China form two points and either

South or North Korea form the third.

http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=12228 [HTML format, various paging].

ARTICLES FROM U.S. JOURNALS

THE TRANSATLANTIC AGENDA: US-EUROPEAN RELATIONS IN A GLOBALIZED

SYSTEM. Harvard International Review, vol. 30, no. 3, Fall 2008, pp. 78-80

Summary: The transatlantic relationship between the United States and the European Union is

the major topic of this discussion with Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the Federal Foreign Minister

of Germany. This relationship enables both America and Europe to achieve goals that could

never be accomplished alone. For the future, the U.S. and Europe must use their relationship to

tackle pressing challenges, such as terrorism, globalization, scarce resources, political Islam,

and changing relations in Asia. One of the most critical ingredients in creating a safer world is

in the field of arms control. America and Europe should not allow the disarmament architecture

that has been set up over the past decades to collapse. By continuing to work together, the U.S.

and Europe can make the world a more sustainable, safer, just and open place. Currently

available online at http://hir.harvard.edu/index.php?page=article&id=1804

HOW SMART AND TOUGH ARE DEMOCRACIES? REASSESSING THEORIES 0F

DEMOCRATIC VICTORY IN WAR. Downes, Alexander B. International Security vol. 33,

no. 4, Spring 2009, pp. 9-51

Summary: The author, assistant professor of political science at Duke University, discusses the

claim that, because democratic leaders run a higher risk of losing office than autocratic leaders

if they fail to win wars, they are more careful than their authoritarian counterparts in choosing

which wars to initiate. Democracies, according to this logic, tend to pick on weak or vulnerable

opponents and thus win a disproportionate number of the wars they start; the evidence,

however, challenges this conclusion, says Downes. If stalemates are included, the statistical

correlation between democracy and military victory is scant. Belying the notion that

democratic leaders who initiate wars should be optimistic that they will win, the decision by

Lyndon Johnson to escalate the Vietnam War reveals that top officials knew that escalation

promised a costly, protracted stalemate, yet they chose to fight anyway. Domestic politics

contributed to Johnson's decision to fight in Vietnam despite the poor odds of victory, because

he believed that pulling out would spark a backlash and destroy his Great Society legislative

program. This analysis should raise doubts about the democracy-and-victory thesis, and should

prompt interest in other explanatory variables for military effectiveness. Online link to the full

text can be found at http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/isec.2009.33.4.9

Embassy of the United States of America ▪ Public Affairs Section

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BRIDGE OVER TROUBLED WATER? ENVISIONING A CHINA-TAIWAN PEACE

AGREEMENT. Saunders, Phillip C.; Kastner, Scott L. International Security vol. 33, no. 4,

Spring 2009, pp. 115-148

Summary: The authors, with the National Defense University and the University of Maryland,

respectively, write that in Taiwan's 2008 presidential election, both candidates advocated

signing a peace agreement with China, and Chinese leaders have also expressed interest in

reaching such an agreement. Although substantial obstacles remain in the way of a cross-strait

peace agreement, this increased interest on both sides of the Taiwan Strait suggests that a

closer examination of an agreement's possible dimensions and consequences is warranted. This

analysis considers what an agreement might look like, whether and how it might be effective in

reducing the possibility of cross-strait military conflict, the relevant barriers to an agreement,

and whether an agreement -- if reached -- would be likely to endure. Online link to the full text

can be found at http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/isec.2009.33.4.87

DECONSTRUCTING THE SHARIATIC JUSTIFICATION OF SUICIDE BOMBINGS.

Slavicek, David Jan. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism vol. 31, no. 6, June 2008, pp. 553-571

Summary: Suicide terrorist bombings have been studied widely by terrorism and law

enforcement experts trying to discern the reasons and factors behind these kinds of political

violence, especially in religious terms. Discerning the reasons, it is commonly believed, will

lead to more effective intelligence and counterterrorism measures. None of the studies, though,

have been sufficient in explaining the Islamic justification for these types of bombings. New

research by the author, of the Swiss Federal Office of Police in Bern indicates that there are

four arguments. Two of them indicate that Shari‘a law prohibits suicide, but two other

arguments stem from the analogy of the medieval combat tactic of a lone individual throwing

himself into the ranks of the enemy and killing as many possible before being killed. Slavicek

does say that the religious justification is neither inherent to Islamic tradition nor culture, but

rather a product of strategic cultural framing to legitimize suicide terrorism in Middle Eastern

conflicts. Available online at http://pdfserve.informaworld.com/658027_731432579_794137443.pdf

TOWARD RECONCILIATION IN AFGHANISTAN. O’Hanlon, Michael. Washington

Quarterly, vol. 32, no. 2, April 2009, pp. 139-147

Summary: The author, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, provides interesting insight

into the situation in Afghanistan. Although the security situation is deteriorating, the level of

civilian violence is relatively modest compared to Congo, Iraq, Colombia, Russia, South

Africa, and Mexico. Kidnappings are frequent, roads are unsafe, and opium production has

increased. However, there are also positive signs -- large numbers of refugees have returned, a

higher percentage of children are in school (especially girls) and childhood immunizations

have reached nearly 70 percent. Telephone access is widespread, inflation is in check and GDP

growth has been about 10 percent per year. O‘Hanlon believes that success is possible in

Afghanistan, but a new approach is needed. Security forces need to be increased to around

600,000, but current plans call for only half that (including some 60,000 Americans). The

concept of ―clear, hold, and build‖ should continue, but the overall development strategy needs

to be improved, making better use of local communities in programs such as the one used by

the World Food Programme, through which local groups provide security and oversee

equitable distribution of food delivered by the WFP. Important progress is possible through

sustained attention and resources from the international community in partnership with Afghan

patriots and reformers. Currently available online at http://www.twq.com/09april/docs/09apr_OHalon.pdf

Embassy of the United States of America ▪ Public Affairs Section

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ARCTIC MELT: REOPENING A NAVAL FRONTIER. Gove, David. U.S. Naval Institute

Proceedings vol. 135, no. 2, February 2009, pp. 16-21

Summary: Rear Admiral David Gove, formerly the Navy‘s 19th oceanographer, writes that

accelerating environmental changes in the Arctic pose security challenges for strategic

planners. As ice melts in that region, it may open up the area to shorter commercial shipping

routes, larger commercial fishing opportunities and wider access to gas and oil deposits, as well

as potential mineral resources on the seabed if they can be extracted successfully. The author

notes that an important tenet of U.S. policy is preserving freedom of navigation. Melting ice

opened up the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route in 2008. Fewer barriers to access

in the Arctic, he says, raises the prospect of new regional adversaries. Gove calls for

strengthening cooperation among regional nations, noting that international accords and

partnerships will be critical to resolving future challenges there. Currently available online at http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/story.asp?STORY_ID=1762

WHEN RIGHT MAKES MIGHT: HOW PRUSSIA OVERTURNED THE EUROPEAN

BALANCE OF POWER. Goddard, Stacie. International Security vol. 33, no. 3, Winter

2008/2009, pp. 110-142

Summary: The author, assistant professor of political science at Wellesley College, writes that,

from 1864 to 1871, Prussia mounted a series of wars that fundamentally altered the balance of

power in Europe, yet no coalition emerged to check Prussia's rise. Rather than provide a

counterbalance against Prussian expansion, the great powers sat on the sidelines and allowed

the transformation of European politics. Goddard believes that it was Prussia's legitimation

strategies -- the way Prussia justified its expansion -- that undermined a potential balancing

coalition. Prussia appealed to shared rules and norms, and signaled constraint, strategically

choosing rhetoric that would resonate with each of the great powers, which enabled it to

expand without opposition. Online link to PDF full text can be found at http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/isec.2009.33.3.110

THE NEXT CATASTROPHE: READY OR NOT? Wormuth, Christine. Washington

Quarterly vol. 32, no. 1, January 2009, pp. 93-106

Summary: According to the author, a senior fellow in the International Security Program at

CSIS, ―The United States is not ready for the next catastrophe.‖ Although improvements have

been made, more than seven years after 9/11 and three years after Katrina, the country still

lacks detailed, government-wide plans to respond to a catastrophe, and there is confusion about

who will be in charge during a disaster. The various laws affecting homeland security are

inconsistent and unclear in assigning responsibilities, and the situation is made worse by turf

wars among the Department of Justice, the FBI, and DHS. According to the author, four

reforms would greatly improve the readiness of the country: merge the National Security

Council (NSC) and the Homeland Security Council (HSC) into a single entity with a single

staff; establish a clear chain of command within DHS, including the clarification of the role of

FEMA; establish a robust interagency organization responsible for developing detailed plans

for dealing with disasters; and complete and expand the creation of homeland security regional

hubs that leverage the resources of the FEMA regional offices. These are but critical first steps

toward building an effective mechanism for managing catastrophic national disasters. Currently

available online at http://www.twq.com/09winter/docs/09jan_Wormuth.pdf

Embassy of the United States of America ▪ Public Affairs Section

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MOTIVES FOR MARTYRDOM: AL-QAIDA, SALAFI JIHAD, AND THE SPREAD OF

SUICIDE ATTACKS. Moghadam, Assaf. International Security vol. 33, no. 3, Winter

2008/2009, pp. 46-78

Summary: The author, assistant professor at the U.S. Military Academy‘s Combating

Terrorism Center at West Point, chronicles the suicide missions that have occurred starting in

the early 1980s. In recent years, however, there has been an unprecedented increase in the

number of attacks, the organizations conducting these attacks, the countries targeted, and the

number of victims. Moghadam believes that current explanations cannot account for the

dramatic increase and spread of suicide attacks. Analysis of 1,857 suicide attacks from

December 1981 through March 2008 suggests that two interrelated factors have contributed to

the "globalization of martyrdom": al-Qaeda's evolution into a global terrorist actor and the

growing appeal of its guiding ideology, Salafi jihad. As localized patterns of suicide missions

have given way to more globalized patterns, the author believes that states must rethink their

counterterrorism strategies. At the same time, because Salafi jihadist groups tend to target

Muslims, moderate Muslims and nonviolent Salafists must take the lead in challenging these

groups. Full text is available online at http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/isec.2009.33.3.46

CENTER STAGE FOR THE 21ST CENTURY: POWER PLAYS IN THE INDIAN

OCEAN. Kaplan, Robert. Foreign Affairs vol. 88, no. 2, March-April 2009

Summary: According to Kaplan, a national correspondent for Atlantic Monthly magazine, the

Indian Ocean is central to understanding geopolitics in the 21st century. ―It combines the

centrality of Islam with global energy politics and the rise of India and China to reveal a

multilayered, multipolar world,‖ he says. Already the world‘s most important passageway for

trade of energy and other goods, the Indian Ocean will become even more crucial. As rivalry

intensifies between India‘s and China‘s economies and between their expanding navies, the

U.S. Navy, its power declining, will have to manage the peace in the Indian Ocean. While the

United States leans on India‘s navy in the Indian Ocean and Japan‘s navy in the Pacific to limit

China‘s expansion, it will at the same time have to lead incorporation of China‘s navy into

international alliances in order to attain global political stability. Lacking the singular threat of

the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the U.S. military will need to become more flexible and

build shifting alliances to respond to many different types of crises in the ―weak governments

and tottering infrastructure‖ lining the Indian Ocean from Somalia to Pakistan to Burma.

Currently available online at http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64832/robert-d-kaplan/center-stage-for-the-21st-century with free registration.

THE TERRORIST THREAT: EXISTENTIAL OR EXAGGERATED? A "RED CELL"

PERSPECTIVE. Fidas, George C. International Journal of Intelligence and

Counterintelligence vol. 21, no. 3, Fall 2008, pp. 519-529

Summary: The author, a veteran of more than thirty years in the U.S. Intelligence Community,

examines the impact that the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks have had on intelligence services. He

concludes that the terrorist threat to the U.S. has been real, but exaggerated by the intelligence

community. There has been no major terrorist attack on America since 9/11, al-Qaeda has been

severely hobbled, anti-terror actions of law enforcement officials have been effective and there

is an absence of a social support base for terrorism in the U.S. To the extent that America faces

a terrorist threat, it is likely to continue to come from abroad, particularly from Europe.

Although Europe has a more pervasive terrorism problem than does the U.S., it is also

Embassy of the United States of America ▪ Public Affairs Section

Page 36 of 36

manageable, given the amateurism of European terrorist groups and the effectiveness of

government counterterrorism measures. Full text can be found online at http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~content=a793513501~db=all~jumptype=rss

LINKAGE DIPLOMACY: ECONOMIC AND SECURITY BARGAINING IN THE

ANGLO-JAPANESE ALLIANCE, 1902–23. Davis, Christina. International Security vol.

33, no. 3, Winter 2008/2009, pp. 143-179

Summary: The author, professor at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International

Affairs at Princeton University, discusses how states use economic-security linkages in

international bargaining. Governments can provide economic benefits as a side payment to

reinforce security cooperation and use close security ties as a source of bargaining leverage in

economic negotiations. Domestic political pressures, however, may constrain the form of

linkage. First, economic side payments are more likely to be chosen in areas that will not harm

the key interests of the ruling party. Second, involvement by the legislature pushes

governments toward using security ties as bargaining leverage for economic gains. Evidence

from negotiations between Britain and Japan during the Anglo-Japanese alliance of 1902 to

1923 supports the constraining role of domestic politics. Economic-security linkages occurred

as Britain gave favorable economic treatment to Japan in order to strengthen the alliance.

Economic competition between the allies, however, made it difficult for Britain to grant

asymmetrical economic benefits. In tariff negotiations where business interests had more

influence in the domestic policy process, the alliance was used as leverage to force reciprocity.

Full text can be found online at http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/isec.2009.33.3.143

More about American foreign policy and security issues:

http://fpolicy.america.gov/fpolicy.html

DDeeffeennssee IIssssuueess,, NNAATTOO RReessppoonnssee ttoo TTeerrrroorriissmm

May 2009

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