Q2 2015

Danske Bank Quarterly Economic Overview Q3 2015

Published in August 2015

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Contents Summary Statistics Table 3 Summary of latest quarter and economic outlook: 4 Global. United Kingdom. Northern Ireland. 1. Gross output estimates. 5 GDP United Kingdom. Economic growth forecast for Northern Ireland. Index of Production NI Index of Services NI NI Composite Economic Index 2. Labour market. 9 Employment. Labour market inactivity. Unemployment: Claimant Count and ILO measures International Unemployment Comparator Rates Redundancies. 3. Inflation. 14 Consumer price indices. Inflation forecast. 4. Housing market. 17 United Kingdom. Northern Ireland. 5. Households and consumers. 18 Consumer Confidence Household saving. Household spending Retail Sales 6. Business environment. 22 Company liquidations NI. BoE “Agents’ Summary of Business Conditions”. 7. Exchange rates and interest rates. 24 Interest rates. Exchange rates:

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TABLE 1

NORTHERN IRELAND

Annual 2013

Annual 2014

Latest Quarter

2015 (forecast)

2016 (forecast)

GVA growth

+1.1

+1.3%

0.7%

(Q2) Oxford/Danske

estimate)

+ 2.0

+ 2.3

Employment

809,773

(annual average level)

813,000

(annual average level)

814,000

67.8% Q2 2015

818,000

(annual ave)

822,000 (annual ave)

ILO rate

7.5%

6.2%

56,000

6.5% Q2 2015

6.2%

(annual average)

6.1%

(annual average)

Claimant count

6.9%

5.5%

4.9%

July 2015

5%

4.8%

UK Annual 2013 Annual

2014 Latest Quarter

2015 Forecast

2016 Forecast

GDP growth

1.8

2.7%

+0.7%

(Q2 2015)

2.7

3.1

ILO Unemployment

7.6% 6.4%

5.6%

Q2 2015

5.4

5.2

Inflation [CPI Annual Average (y/y change)

2.5%

1.6%

0.1

(July‘15)

0.05

1.13

UK Interest Rate Annual Average

0.5%

0.5%

0.5%

(Q2 2015)

0.5%

0.75%

4

2015: Low oil, strong pound and divergent monetary policies. Global: Patterns of growth remain mixed across the global economy as advanced economies continue to pick-up but many emerging economies struggle. In China growth has slowed causing significant market volatility and policy action has now been expanded considerably. The CNY depreciation in August was the latest blow to emerging market currencies. CNY depreciation is particularly negative for currencies whose economies have substantial trade with China. Commodities have also remained low and stock market volatility has increased substantially during Quarter 2. Advanced economies such as the US and UK have performed well this year and interest rate rises are reported to be on the horizon. However, if the Chinese and Emerging Markets slowdown continues to cause significant volatility in financial markets interest rate adjustments in the US and UK will be delayed. United Kingdom: (2015f GDP 2.7% yoy ) The preliminary estimate from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) suggests that UK GDP rose by 0.7 per cent during Q2 after growth of 0.4 per cent in the previous quarter. The UK’s labour market has remained solid during Quarter 2 with the unemployment rate at 5.6% and annual wage growth has now reached 2.8 per cent. The combination of increasing wage growth and very low inflation implies increasing real wage growth, which is at its highest level since September 2007. As inflation is low mainly because of the fall in energy and food prices, this supports private consumption and, thus, growth in the UK. Downward risks to the UK’s growth forecast stem from the strong currency, low productivity and weakening global growth. Northern Ireland: (2015f GVA +2 %) GVA is forecast to rise on average by 2.0% in 2015, with further, albeit more modest, increases in private sector employment. In quarter 2 unemployment increased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.5 per cent although the number of unemployment claimants in July fell to 43,500, representing 4.9 per cent of the working age population. However risks remain on the downside given the uncertainty as to whether the Northern Ireland Executive will agree to implement their budget. Failure to agree on welfare reform places the Stormont House Agreement including the deal to reduce corporation tax into jeopardy. This is biggest challenge the Executive has had to face to date. Failure to reach an agreement could result in more severe spending cuts in areas such as education and health which would have long term consequences for Northern Ireland’s economic future. Angela McGowan Chief Economist August 2015

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1: Gross output estimates GDP United Kingdom The Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the UK economy expanded by 0.7% in Quarter 2 2015, following growth of 0.4% in the previous quarter. The economy grew by 2.6 per cent between Q2 2014 and Q2 2015. The service sector (78.4% of GDP) was still the main contributor to growth. Services increased by 0.7% q/q and thus contributed by 0.5pp to quarterly GDP growth in Q2 (up from 0.3pp in Q1). Construction growth was flat. Total production increased by 1.0% and thus contributed 0.1pp to quarterly GDP growth in Q2. Total production increased mainly due to mining & quarrying (mostly oil production) , which increased 7.8% q/q - the largest since 1989. Manufacturing production on the other hand declined slightly by 0.3% q/q. Northern Ireland: Economic Growth forecast The Danske Bank/Oxford Economics Quarterly Sectoral Forecast report (June 2015) estimates that the local economy grew by 0.7 percent during Quarter 2 and will grow by 2 per cent in 2015 and 2.3 during 2016. [see Figure 1). Figure 1 Oxford Economics Q2 2015 forecast of GVA growth (yoy) in Northern Ireland and UK. (2008 - 2016).

Source: Danske Bank 2015 N.B.: Data for Northern Ireland output are available in the form of GVA (Gross value added), where GDP = GVA + Taxes – Subsides on products (the latter two items are available only at a national level).

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

Q1 2009

Q3 2009

Q1 2010

Q3 2010

Q1 2011

Q3 2011

Q1 2012

Q3 2012

Q1 2013

Q3 2013

Q1 2014

Q3 2014

Q1 2015

Q3 2015

Q1 2016

Q3 2016

%

GVA growth (%)

NI

UK

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NI Index of Production (IOP) Q1 2015 (+3.7% qoq / +5.1% yoy)

Provisional results from DETINI’s Index of Production for the first quarter of 2015 were

published on June 17th. The data show the NI IOP moved to the highest level on record

(107.8) as output increased by 3.7% over the quarter and increased 5.1% over the year.

(See Figure 2)

The only sector to show growth over the rolling four quarters was manufacturing which

increased by 4.3%. In Northern Ireland manufacturing comprises the main element of the

production index. The remaining three sectors showed decline over this period: the

electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply and water supply fell by 1.1%, mining &

quarrying fell by 4.7%, and the sewerage and waste management sector fell by 0.5%.

The latest results show that output in the Manufacturing sector rose over the quarter by

4 per cent and was 6.1% higher over the year. (UK manufacturing rose 1.4 per cent year

on year in Q1 2015). The NI manufacturing index has recovered by 22.6% since the

minimum in Q3 2009 (89.9)

Figure 2: Index of Production in NI and UK (2011=100)

Source: DETINI, June 2015

NI Index of Services (IOs) Q1 2015 (+0.2 % qoq / +1.7 % yoy)

Provisional results from DETINI’s Index of Services for the first quarter of 2015 were

published on July 24th. The results showed that NI experienced an increase of 0.2% over

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the quarter and 1.7% when compared to Q1 the previous year. This was below UK

estimates that showed UK services to have increased 0.4% over the quarter and by 3.1%

over the year.

Over the quarter, the only broad industry group to increase was the wholesale and retail

trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; accommodation and food service

activities sector which rose by 1.7%. The remaining three broad industry groups fell over

the quarter: transport, storage, information & communication sector (-1.2%); business

services and finance sector (-2.1%); and ‘other’ services sector (-6.0%).

Figure 3: Index of Services in NI and UK (2011=100)

Source: DETINI, June 2015

Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index Q1 2015 (+ 1.1% qoq +2.5% yoy)

The NI Composite Economic Index for Quarter 1 2015 was published by DETINI on

24THJuly 2015. The latest results show the following changes:

• Provisional results for the first quarter (Jan - Mar) of 2015 show that the NICEI

increased by 1.1% from Quarter 4 2014 to Quarter 1 2015.

• This is the third increase in the NICEI over the previous four quarters to Quarter 1

2015 and the index is now 3.6% above the minimum reached in Quarter 3 2012

• Private sector output grew by 1.5% over the quarter to Quarter 1 2015.

• Public sector jobs fell by 0.2% over the quarter.

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• The increase in the NICEI over the quarter was driven by rises in the production

sector (a contribution of 0.6 percentage points), the construction sector (a

contribution of 0.4 percentage points) and the service sector (a contribution of 0.1

percentage points).

Over the year from Quarter 1 2014 to Q1 2015, the NICEI increased by 2.5 per cent.

The main driver of this growth stemmed from growth in the Construction (+7.9%),

Production (+3.6%) and Services (+1.7%) sectors. The public sector employee job index

remained flat over the year to Quarter 1 and private sector output grew by 3.3%

compared to the same quarter one year ago. (See Figure 4)

Figure 4: NI Composite Economic Index

Source: DETINI July 2015

9

2: Labour market Employment Q2 2015 DETINI’s Monthly Labour Market Report (published August 2015) by the Northern Ireland

Statistics & Research Agency (NISRA) shows that the number of people in employment in

Northern Ireland during the three-month period April-June 2015 was estimated to be

814,000, equating to 67.8% of people aged 16-64. This represented a decrease of

17,000 over the quarter and a fall of 6,000 over the year. The Northern Ireland

employment rate (67.8%) remained lower than the UK average (73.4%) during April-June

2015 and remains the lowest among the twelve UK regions.

Quarterly Employment Survey:

Quarterly Change: (-0.4%)

The latest Quarterly Employment Survey for Quarter 1 2015 period was published in on

June 17th and showed that there were 721,410 employee jobs in March (excluding the

self-employed). The survey showed that between Dec 2014 and March 2015 the number

of employee jobs in Northern Ireland fell by 0.4%.

This consisted of increased jobs in the construction sector (1,810 jobs) and decreases in

the services sector (-4,330 jobs) the manufacturing sector (-260 jobs) and in Other

Industries (-150).

Quarterly Employment Survey

Annual Change:

The annual increase in jobs (8,530 jobs) over the year to March 2015 was driven

primarily by an increase in the service sector jobs (5,470 jobs). There were also increases

in the manufacturing sector (1,860 jobs), in the construction sector (1,100 jobs) and in

the ‘other industries’ sector (100 jobs). The public sector remained relatively unchanged

over the year (+20 jobs) and the figure now stands at 7.0% lower (-15,880 jobs) than the

series peak at September 2009. The private sector was up 8,000 jobs over the year, but

remains 0.8% (-4,160 jobs) lower than the series peak in March 2008. [see Figure 5].

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Figure 5. Annual and Quarterly employment changes (%) by NI industry sector.

Source: DFP Monthly Labour Market Report, March 2015

Labour Market Inactivity Q2 2015 The seasonally adjusted number of economically inactive persons (who are of working age

16-64 years) in Northern Ireland during the period April-June 2015 was estimated at

319,000. Of the total, 39% (123,000) were male and 61% (196,000) were female. The

local rate of inactivity (at 27.4 percent) is significantly higher than the UK average rate

(22.1%) and is the highest of the twelve UK regions.

Claimant Count Unemployment:

(July 2015): The number of local unemployment claimants decreased by 400 over the

month to July 2015; it now stands at 43,500 – equivalent to 4.9% of the workforce. Over

the year to July the claimant count level decreased by 9,400 people (equivalent to 1.2

percentage points) [see Table 2].

In the UK, the July 2015 claimant count was 792,400, down 4,900 over the month and

down 217,700 over the year. The UK claimant count rate in July stood at 2.3%, down

from 2.9 % a year earlier.

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Table 2. Claimant count in Northern Ireland and UK

Level Monthly

change Annual change Rate %

July-15 (level) (level) July-15 July-14

Northern Ireland 43,500 -400 -9,400

4.9 5.9

UK 792,400 -4,900 -217,700 2.3 2.9 Source: ONS/ DETINI

Figure 6 :Claimant count rate in Northern Ireland and UK

Source: DFP and ONS Labour Market Statistics, various issues

ILO Quarterly Unemployment Rate (Quarter 2 2015) The International Labour Organisation (ILO) seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for

Northern Ireland was 5.6% during the April-June 2015 period. This represents an

increase of 0.3 percentage points over the quarter and a decrease of 0.1 percentage

points over the year. [see Table 3].

The Northern Ireland ILO unemployment level was estimated to be 56,000 during April-

June 2015, up 1,000 over the quarter and down 2,000 over the year.

12

The ILO unemployment rate for the UK was also 5.6% in the same period. The number of

unemployed people in the UK rose by 25,000 over the quarter but was 221,000 lower

than the level recorded in Q2 2014 (See Table 3)

Table 3. Unemployment (ILO rate) in Northern Ireland and UK (Quarter 2 2015 )

Level Quarterly change Annual change Rate %

April-June ‘15 (level) (level) April-June

2015

April-June 2014

Northern Ireland 56,000 +1,000 -2,000 6.5% 6.6%

UK 1.85m +25,000 -221,000 5.6 % 6.3% See Figure 7 below for the long-term trend in quarterly unemployment rates for both

Northern Ireland and the UK as a whole.

Figure 7.

Historical unemployment in Northern Ireland and UK (Quarter 2 ILO rates 1996-

2015)

Source: DFP, NISRA and ONS, various issues

13

Figure 8 below shows that Northern Ireland and UK monthly ILO unemployment levels still remain well below levels in the EU 18 and the Republic of Ireland.

Source: DETINI, Central Statistics Office RoI, ONS UK, DFPNI, Bureau of Labour Market Statistics US and Eurostat (various issues).

Confirmed Redundancies: According to DETI, over the latest twelve month period there

were 1,928 confirmed redundancies which was a decrease of 9% from the previous year

(2,128). In the first half of 2015 there were 892 redundancies with the bulk of job losses

coming from Administration and Support Services, Retail and Wholesale and also

Financial and Insurance activities.

See Table 4 below for a breakdown of redundancies by industrial sector during the

Quarters 1 and 2 2015.

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Table 4 Confirmed redundancies by Industrial Sector,

NI Quarters 1 and 2 2015, Source: DETI 2015,

Q1 2015 Q2 2015

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 0 0 Mining and quarrying 0 0 Manufacturing 2 10 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 0 0 Water supply, sewerage, waste Man't & remediation 0 0 Construction 59 0 Wholesale & retail / repair of motor vehicles & motorcycles 49 200 Transportation and storage 18 18 Accommodation & food service activities 0 0 Information & communication 18 11 Financial and insurance activities 22 182 Real estate activities 0 0 Professional, scientific & technical activities 1 6 Administrative and support service activities 272 16 Public admin &defence; /social security 0 0 Education 0 0 Human health and social work activities 4 2

Arts, entertainment and recreation 2 0

Other service activities 0 0 TOTAL 447 445

Source: DETINI

3: Inflation Consumer Price Index (CPI) During the first half of 2015 UK annual inflation averaged 0.05 per cent. During July

2015 the CPI headline rate rose to 0.1 per cent after sitting at 0.0 per cent during June.

[see Figure 9]. Overall the CPI rate is expected to average 0.05 per cent during 2015 and

1.13 per cent during 2016.

15

Figure 9.

Source: ONS (July 2015 and various issues)

Figure 10 below presents an international comparison of year on year rates of inflation since 2010.

Source: ONS UK, Eurostat, CSO Ireland, US Bureau of Labor Statistics (various issues)

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jan-

10

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan-

11

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan-

12

April

July

Oct

Jan-

13

April

July

Oct

Jan-

14

Apr-

14

Jul-1

4

Oct

-14

Jan-

15

April

Jul-1

5

UK Annual Inflation January 2010-July 2015 (CPI)

16

Inflation forecast The Bank of England’s Inflation Report published in August 2015, notes that the weakness

in headline inflation relative to the 2% target reflects unusually low contributions from

energy, food and other imported goods prices. The remaining part of the undershoot is

judged to reflect relatively weak domestic cost growth, given a continuing, albeit declining,

drag from slack. However, inflation is projected to rise around the turn of the year as past

falls in energy prices begin to drop out of the annual comparison. Thereafter, domestic

pressures are likely to build alongside a steady expansion in demand, which absorbs the

remaining economic slack.

Figure 11. Bank of England inflation projections, August 2015 (up to 2018).

Source: Bank of England, Inflation report August 2015

17

4: Housing market

UK: On July 14th 2015 the Office of National Statistics reported house prices rose

across the UK by 5.7 per cent on average in the year to May 2015. Regional variations

were as follows: 5.8% in England, 2.5% in Wales, 2.9% in Scotland and 10.5% in

Northern Ireland. In London prices rose by 4.7%, when London and the South East are

removed from the data, house prices increased by 5.2% on average. Average mix-

adjusted house prices in May 2015 stood at £286,000 in England, £170,000 in Wales,

£152,000 in Northern Ireland and £193,000 in Scotland (See Figure 12)

Figure 12:

Source: ONS House Price Index, published July 2015

Northern Ireland Housing Market Q2 2015 DFP Residential House Price Index: The Department of Finance and Personnel

reported that between Quarter 1 and Quarter 2 2015 residential property prices

increased by 3%. Local prices increased by 6% over the year to Quarter 2 2015. The

standardised price recorded for all property in NI during Quarter 2 was £113,245 and

the simple median price recorded was £110,000.

18

In the second quarter of 2015 4,647 verified residential properties were sold. This

represented a 7.3% increase over the quarter but relative to the same quarter one year

earlier transactions were down 11.5 per cent. DFP report that in Q2 2015 NI residential

property prices were 1% higher than Q1 2005. (See Figure 13)

Figure 13. Northern Ireland Residential House Price Indices (Q1 2003 - Q2 2015).

Source: DFP NI 2015

Oxford Economics: House Price Forecast The Oxford Economics outlook for house price growth in Northern Ireland is shown in Table 5 below. Local house prices are forecast to grow by 6.9% in 2015 and 2.1% in 2016.

Table 5. Oxford Economics House prices forecast (Q2 2015) - Growth yoy%.

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Northern Ireland -13.3 -10.8 -0.9 9.5 6.9 2.1 3.4

UK -1.0 1.6 3.5 10.0 5.5 2.7 3.7 Source: Oxford Economics, March 2015

19

Figure 14

5: Households and consumers NI Consumer Confidence Index Q2 Consumer confidence in Northern Ireland fell slightly during the second quarter of 2015

but remained static relative to one year earlier. The index moved from 136 in Q1 to 128

during Q2.

Figure 15. Danske Bank Consumer Confidence Index for Northern Ireland (Sep 2008 - June 2015).

20

UK Consumer Confidence index:

According to the GfK survey, consumer confidence in the UK decreased three points to 4

in July 2015. Three of the measures used to calculate the index saw decreases this

month, one measure saw an increase and one measure stayed the same. GfK pointed out

that UK consumers are confident about their own financial situation for the coming 12

months but are more anxious about wider issues such as Grexit and global uncertainty.

Household saving:

According to figures from the Office of National Statistic’s Quarterly National

Accounts (published 30th June 2015) the UK household saving ratio was 4.9% in

Quarter 1 2015 compared with 5.9% in the previous quarter. Over the past five years the

savings ratio has averaged 6.6 per cent. (See Figure 16)

Figure 16

Source: ONS, Quarterly National Accounts, June 2015

Household spending: The ONS reported in June 2015 that UK household final consumption expenditure rose by

0.9 per cent in Quarter 1 2015 and had increased for 15 consecutive quarters. The

largest increase in household final consumption expenditure in Quarter 1 came from

housing, and recreation and culture. When compared with the same quarter a year

ago, household final consumption expenditure has been rising each quarter since Quarter

4 2011, and was 3.4% higher in Quarter 1 2015 than in the same period a year ago.

(See Figure 17)

21

Figure 17

Source: ONS, Quarterly National Accounts June 2015

Retail Sales: Annual comparison: In June 2015 UK retail sales grew by 4% year on year

in terms of quantity bought. This was the 28th consecutive month of year-on-year growth

and the longest period of sustained annual growth since records began in 1996. The

amount spent increased 0.9 per cent year on year.

Month on month comparison: Over the month to June however the volume of retail sales

in the UK decreased by 0.2 per cent and the amount spent (value) declined by 0.1 per

cent.

Table 6: All retailing, June 2015 (seasonally adjusted percentage change)

22

6: Business Environment Company Liquidations Q1 2015 Provisional data from the Insolvency Service of the Department of Enterprise Trade and

Investment (DETI) show a total of 76 company liquidations in Northern Ireland in Quarter

1 2015. Of this there were 20 voluntary liquidations and 56 compulsory

liquidations in the latest quarter. Compulsory liquidations rose by 30.2 per cent on the

same quarter last year. [see Figure 18 below ).

Figure 18:

Source: NISRA, Insolvency Service Bank of England: Agents’ Summary of Business Conditions, August 2015 The Bank of England’s Agents’ Summary of Business Conditions was published in August

2015 and is a summary of monthly reports compiled by the Bank of England's Agents,

following discussions with around 700 businesses. The latest findings in the summary

report are as follows:

• Growth of consumer services turnover had eased slightly. Retail sales values growth had

been steady.

23

• Housing market activity had been stronger than at the start of the year, despite a

continued shortage of properties available for sale.

• Investment intentions had edged down for manufacturing, but remained consistent with

moderate growth overall.

• Business services turnover growth had remained robust and broad-based.

• Manufacturing output growth had been steady.

• Construction output growth had edged up slightly.

• Corporate credit conditions had been little changed.

• Employment intentions had eased slightly, but remained consistent with moderate

growth.

• Recruitment difficulties had risen, and were at their highest level since 2007.

• Capacity utilisation had remained slightly above normal in services, and marginally below

normal in manufacturing.

• Growth in total labour costs per employee had changed little in services, although there

were signs of building pressures. Manufacturing pay growth had edged lower.

• The rate of decline in materials costs had eased. Imported finished goods prices had

remained slightly lower than a year earlier.

• Manufacturing output prices had remained slightly lower than a year earlier. Business

services price inflation had fallen slightly.

• The rate of decline of consumer goods prices had eased slightly, and retail services

inflation had edged higher

24

7: Exchange rates and interest rates Interest rates: With the UK’s economic performance continuing to strengthen and

unemployment falling to 5.5 per cent during Quarter 4, there now a high probability that

the Bank of England might introduce a small interest rate hike soon. The Governor of the

Bank of England has talked about the rate rising “at the turn of the year”; but this will

depend upon inflation movements. Danske Bank expect the BoE to increase interest rates

at a relatively modest pace of around 75bp annually in the coming years, taking the Bank

Rate to 1.25% by the end of 2016 or early 2017.

Foreign Exchange:

Danske Bank now expect the Bank of England to hike interest rates in February 2016, and

in the short term, we expect EUR/GBP to remain supported by low UK inflation. We

forecast EUR/GBP at 0.71 and 0.70 in 1M and 3M respectively, while GBP/USD is

expected to drop to 1.51 in 3M. As inflation bottoms out and a BoE rate hike moves

closer, we expect EUR/GBP to trade gradually lower over the medium term. Consequently,

we expect EUR/GBP to bottom in Quarter 1 16 targeting 0.69 in 6M. However, on a 6-

12M horizon, fiscal consolidation and political risks in the UK (EU referendum) are likely to

weigh increasingly on GBP next year. Hence, we forecast EUR/GBP in12M at 0.72.

Figure 19

Oanske Bank Markets /Aug 2016

25

Bank of England – “Agents’ summary of business conditions – August 2015”. Bank of England – Data from the database “Interest & exchange rates”. Bank of England – “Inflation Report – August 2015”. Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S.A.) – “CPI Detailed Report 2015”. Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S.A.) – The employment situation –2015.

CSO (Central Statistics Office Ireland) – “Seasonally Adjusted Standardised Unemployment Rates” as available on the website. CSO (Central Statistics Office Ireland) – “Consumer price index by month”. DFP -NI – “Monthly Labour Market Report – August 2015 and previous releases. DFP NI –“Residential House Price Index”, August 2015 DETI-NI – “Northern Ireland Index of Production Q1 2015 Eurostat – Table “HICP – All index”. GFK/Nop – “Consumer Confidence Barometer” - latest releases. Danske Bank – “Consumer Confidence June 2015” Oanda (Forex Trading and Exchange Rates Services) – “Historical exchange rates” database as available on the website. ONS – “Consumer Price Indices Statistical Bulletin – August 2015”. ONS – “Gross domestic product first estimate – Quarter 2 2015, July 2015” ONS – Data from the “Claimant Count” statistics, as available on the ONS website. ONS – Data from the “Labour Force Survey” as available on the ONS website. ONS – Data from “Time Series Data - UK Economic Accounts” database. ONS – Data from “Time Series Data - Consumer Price Indices” database. The Insolvency Service – Insolvency Statistics, in particular the table “Insolvencies in Northern Ireland”. May 2015

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8: References.