DAILY REPORT - Banca Intesa Beograd · Date Currency 3.2.2018 EUR Source: Public Debt Management...

Source: Daily FX

Value Previous Change YTD Value Previous Change YTD

118.7241 118.7554 -0.03% 0.21% 1.2509 1.2414 0.77% 4.20%

94.9945 95.6009 -0.63% -4.16% 1.1588 1.1561 0.23% -0.96%

102.4367 102.6142 -0.17% 1.14% 0.8768 0.8748 0.23% 5.47%

135.4679 135.6429 -0.13% 1.53% 1.4261 1.4191 0.49% -2.92%Source: NBS 109.4000 109.1900 0.19% -1.23%

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Value Next decision Value

3.50% 8.2.2018 0.00%

Deposit facility 2.00% 1.50%

Lending facility 5.00% 0.50%

Repo operations (one week) 2.56% -0.75%

Source: NBS Source: Bloomberg

1.2.2018 31.1.2018 Change (bps) 1.2.2018 31.1.2018 Change(bps)

2.58% 2.57% 0.01 -0.363% -0.355% -0.008

2.82% 2.82% 0.00 -0.369% -0.369% 0.000

3.11% 3.12% -0.01 -0.328% -0.328% 0.000

3.23% 3.24% -0.01 -0.278% -0.279% 0.001

Source: Reuters Source: Bloomberg, EBF

Note: Values are with 1 day delay Note: Values are with 1 day delay

Value Previous Change (bps) Value Previous Change(bps)

1.579% 1.580% 0.000 0.082% 0.079% 0.003

1.787% 1.778% 0.009 0.468% 0.463% 0.005

1.983% 1.966% 0.017 1.066% 1.058% 0.008

-0.801% -0.800% 0.000 2.443% 2.453% -0.010

-0.747% -0.745% -0.002 2.608% 2.569% 0.039

-0.660% -0.658% -0.002 2.759% 2.734% 0.025

Sources: ICE, Bloomberg Sources: IBA, Bloomberg

Libor 3M (CHF) USD ISDA 5Y FIXING


Libor 3M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 5Y FIXING



BELIBOR 6M EURIBOR6M

Libor interest rates Interest rate Swap


BEONIA EONIA

BELIBOR1M EURIBOR1M

BELIBOR3M EURIBOR3M

United Kingdom (BOE) 8.2.2018

Switzerland (SNB) 15.3.2018

Serbia - Interbank interest rates Serbia Europe - Interbank interest rates - Europe

Next decision

Key policy rate Eurozone (ECB) 8.3.2018

US (FED) 21.3.2018

GBP/RSD GBP/USD

USD/JPY

National Bank of Serbia Interest rates Major interest rates

EUR/RSD EUR/USD

USD/RSD EUR/CHF

CHF/RSD EUR/GBP

FX rates and money market

FX rates on domestic market International markets

Currency Currency

Unemployment rate January 4.1% 4.1%

14:30 Change in non-farm payrolls January 148k 180k

Key events

TimeCountry/

RegionEvent Period Previous Forecast

14:30 US

US

Overall trading at the Belgrade Stock Exchange RSD533,85 mln (€4,50 mln). Bonds trading RSD523,34 mln (€4,41 mln).

Serbian Public Debt Agency sold 2y T-bonds in the amount of €26 mln, yield 0.96%.

Euro gains against dollar. Trading at $1.250.

European stocks declined. Stoxx 600 down 0.5%, DAX 1.4%, FTSE 100 0.6%.

U.S. stocks ended the session little changed. S&P 500 down less than 0.1%, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.1%.

Oil prices are climbing (WTI $66.12, Brent $69.92).

Financial Market Analysis

Treausury and ALM department

DAILY REPORT

Flash

Dinar slightly changed against euro (118,7241).

Bank of the Group

February 2, 2018

1.17

1.18

1.19

1.2

1.21

1.22

1.23

1.24

1.25

1.26EUR/USD

0

50

100

150

200

250

118

119

120

121

122

123

124

125EUR mio EUR/RSD

Turnover on FX market (right axis)

http://www.bancaintesa.rs/code/navigate.aspx?Id=1

Date Currency

3.2.2018 EUR

Source: Public Debt Management Agency

Moody's S&P Fitch

Ba3 BB BB

Outlook Stable Stable Stable

Date 17.3.2017 15.12.2017 15.12.2017 Sources: Bloomberg, JPMorgan

Source: Bloomberg

Date Value Previous Date Value Previous

04.02.2016 2.75% 2.79% 18.01.2018 0.47% 0.48%

02.03.2017 2.64% 2.65% 01.02.2018 0.96% 0.99%

07.02.2017 3.48% 3.49% 21.12.2017 1.49% 1.75%

24.10.2017 4.05% 4.65% 19.01.2018 1.95% 2.38%

30.01.2018 3.88% 4.29% 13.07.2017 4.00% 4.00%

23.01.2018 4.30% 6.50% 06.09.2017 4.20%

23.10.2017 5.00% 5.60% Source: Public Debt Management Agency

21.10.2014 12.99%

23.06.2016NBS key rate +

0.25%

NBS key rate +

0.25%

Source: Public Debt Management Agency

Source: Public Debt Management Agency Source: Public debt Management Agency

Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa

Vrednost Prethodna UST spred

Serbia 5y 2018 2.741% 2.753% 0.873%

Serbia 7y 2020 3.209% 3.172% 1.045%

Serbia 10y 2021 3.415% 3.365% 3.415%

Serbia 20y 2024 6.411% 6.395%Source: Bloomberg

Izvor: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

7 years

10 years

24 month amortizing

Serbian Eurobonds yields (USD)

2 years 5 years

3 years 10 years

5 years 15 years

Maturity

3 months 53 weeks

6 months 2 years

53 weeks 3 years

Maturity

RSD Government securities EUR Government securities

Instrument Value

3y T-bonds 50,000,000

Serbia Credit rating

Fixed income

Scheduled auctions

80

130

180

230

280

330

bps JP Morgan EMBI Srbija

2.8

3.3

3.8

4.3

4.8

110

111

112

113

114

115

116

117

Serbian 10y Eurobond 2021

Price Yield (right axis)

1.52.53.54.55.56.57.58.59.5

10.511.512.513.514.5

Yields on RSD government securities primary auctions

3m 6m 53w 2y 3y NBS key rate 5y 7y 10y

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.0

Yields on EUR government securities primary auctions

53w 2y 3y 5y 10y 15y

2

Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

Sourc: Bloomberg

EPEN 13,800 3,560,400 0.00% -16.36% 5.30 14.70 42.27

AERO 1,792 2,790,144 0.11% 0.45% 2.46 17.98 14.52

FITO 2,881 1,573,026 -1.03% 0.03% 1.65 10.02 17.60

JESV 5,000 1,160,000 0.00% -5.66% 0.69 5.18 11.62

NIIS 721 904,134 0.56% 0.28% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A

SJPT 310 247,690 -5.49% -8.82% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A

TGAS 12,500 100,000 0.03% 0.04% 1.07 24.63 4.23

CTVB 510 99,960 0.00% 0.00% 0.41 1,683.13 0.03

VBSE 745 74,500 -0.67% -0.67% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A

IMPL 3,300 52,800 -0.87% -1.81% 1.14 11.72 10.27

ENHL 900 35,100 0.00% -4.26% 1.17 237.19 0.53

KMBN 1,915 26,810 0.79% 0.74% 0.46 7.73 6.61

Sources: Belgrade Stock Exchange; Bloombeg

-0.47%

0.57%

-0.13%

-0.62%

0.45%

Source: Bloomberg

crobex sbi20


sofix bet-c

Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg


dj balkan

Source: Bloomberg

DJ Stoxx Balkan 50 Balkan 499.32 497.08 6.05%

SOFIX Bugarska 711.82 712.73 5.07%

BET Rumunija 8,318.61 8,370.46 7.29%

Crobex Hrvatska 1,875.91 1,884.79 1.79%

SBITOP Slovenija 836.42 831.65 3.71%

Regional stock exchanges

Index Country/Region ValueValue from the previous

dayChange YTD

IMPOL SEVAL AD SEVOJNO 3,109,547,100 Din.

ENERGOPROJEKT HOLDING AD BEO 9,838,162,800 Din.

KOMERCIJALNA BANKA AD BEOGRA 32,206,385,740 Din.

MESSER TEHNOGAS AD 12,958,225,000 Din.

CENTRAL AD VRBAS 52,177,080 Din.

VALJAONICA BAKRA SEVOJNO AD 479,300,220 Din.

JEDINSTVO SEVOJNO AD 1,523,595,000 Din.

NIS AD NOVI SAD 117,566,548,400 Din.

SOJAPROTEIN AD 4,617,612,440 Din.

ENERGOPROJEKT ENTEL AD BEOGR 5,830,431,000 Din.

AERODROM NIKOLA TESLA AD BEO 61,446,515,200 Din.

GALENIKA FITOFARMACIJA AD 7,605,840,000 Din.

P/BV P/E ROE Market capitalization

The most traded stocks on Belgrade Stock Exchange from the previous day

Company Ticker Price RSDTurnovor

RSD

Daily

change

Weekly

change

Ratios P / B P / EBelex15 0,84 13,87

Turnover 533,852,176 RSD 1,044,462,998 RSD -48.89%Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

4,495,393 € 8,796,011 € -48.89%

Belex 15 774.08 773.37 0.09% 1.79%

Belex line 1,625.53 1,627.36 -0.11% -2.12%

Belgrade Stock Exchange

Value Previous value Change YTD

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

CROBEX

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

SOFIX

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

BET

300

400

500

600DJ Stoxx Balkan 50

500

550

600

650

700

750

800 Belex 15

-5.49%

-1.03%

0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.11% 0.56% 0.79%

SJPT FITO ENHL MTLC JESV ALFA TGAS AERO NIIS KMBN

Daily change of Belex 15 members

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800Belex line

600

650

700

750

800

850

SBITOP

3

Source: Bloomberg

dow jones s&p



nasdaq dax



nikkei dj stoxx





Source: Bloomberg

Snežana Topalović 201-1400 Snežana Spasojević 201-3621Vladimir Gavović 201-1263 Dragomir Milin [email protected] Biljana Radosavljević 201-3610

[email protected]

Darko Karanović 201-3624 Vitomir Marić 201-1315Boban Todorović 201-3627 Olivera Glišić 201-1314Dragan Ignja 201-3626 [email protected]

[email protected]

ContactFinancial Market analysis Customer execution office (fixed income)

Dealing Custody

Disclaimer

This overview is written to inform and does not represent a call for making business decisions and buying or selling mentioned financial instruments. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not guarantee exactness of summoned data.

Information, opinions and commentaries in this overview are given with the best intention according to available data provided from relevant sources and as a result of professional attitudes and orientations of analytical team working in

Banca Intesa ad Beograd. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not assume responsibility for possible loss and damage caused by business activities according to any element and contents of the overview. This document may only be

reproduced in whole or in part together with the name of Banca Intesa Beograd.

Nikkei 225 Japan 23,486.11 23,098.29 1.68% 3.17%

Dow Jones Stoxx 600 EU 393.49 395.46 -0.50% 1.11%

FTSE UK 7,490.39 7,533.55 -0.57% -2.57%

DAX Germany 13,003.90 13,189.48 -1.41% 0.67%

NASDAQ US 7,385.86 7,411.48 -0.35% 6.99%

S&P 500 US 2,821.98 2,823.81 -0.06% 5.55%

Dow Jones Industrial US 26,186.71 26,149.39 0.14% 5.94%

Index Country/Region Value Previous value Change YTD

World stock exchanges

14,00015,00016,00017,00018,00019,00020,00021,00022,00023,00024,00025,00026,00027,00028,000

Dow Jones Industrial

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

S&P 500

4,0004,2004,4004,6004,8005,0005,2005,4005,6005,8006,0006,2006,4006,6006,8007,0007,2007,4007,6007,800

NASDAQ Composite

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420DJ Stoxx 600

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

Nikkei 225

\

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000DAX

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75Cena nafte Brent (USD/bbl)

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400Zlato

\

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

Vix Index

4

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DAILY REPORT - Banca Intesa Beograd · Date Currency 3.2.2018 EUR Source: Public Debt Management...

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