8/9/2019 Daily DAX Journal 110810

1/2The Lonely TraderDisclaimer: All information is provided as market commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Loneexpressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information

results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your

Wednesday's focus: Couple of trade ideas -- some fairly prominent price pivots have built up over the past two weeks. The lo

vot, 6250, is my preferred choice for a trade level. The upper pivot is not as interesting, given the past four days of price acti

refer a fade at the upper limit of the current development, targeting the upper end of "value". I won't hang around to see if t

ade works. If it isn't going my way within the first ten to fifteen minutes, I'll get out or stop out, whichever comes first.

rade ideas:

hort -- On a break below 6250, wait for a pullback and short a failure below. Target 6210.

hort -- On a failure below 6400, target 6370 or 60, depending on the price action.

ong -- On a push above 6325, possible long to fill the gap, targeting 6350. This idea needs confirmation during the trading day

Aggressive range H

Conservative range H

Conservative range L

A range of 146 is optimistic, given current market conditions.

The conservative estimate of 110 is also a bit optimistic for

tomorrow's calendar. Nothing heavy on earnings tomorrow.

Maybe one or two after the US session close. There is nothing

special about the projections. Very little confluence in the

current development. DAX almost looks "crowded" between

6360 and 6260.

High Extreme: 6429 (rng high projection)

High primary: 6393 (rng high projection)

Today's High: 6395/6405 (50% ext)

Today's Low: 6180/70 (HVN, lwr dev't)

Low primary: 6173 (rng low projection)

Low Extreme: 6140.2 (rng low projection)

My confidence in this range projection is low. This week has

been difficult, although I believe I've settled on the idea that ashort is possible below 6250, targeting 6210. And possibly a

short on a failure at 6400, targeting 6360.

Aggressive range L

ily DAXurnalAug 2010

Tuesday, 10 August 2010

DAX 30min study

The Fed surprised -- but kept the overnight rate unchanged. The FOMC has said all along that it will leave the option

of continued stimulus on the table, even when it was testing a new facility to remove stimulus from the economy.

The market was clearly not expecting the statement to be so accommodative. Or perhaps foreboding?

Range studies: Aggressive 146; conservative 110; H 6395/6405 L 6180/70 Calendar: UK Q2 infl rpt; US trade balance

7POC 3POC

HVN

3d profile

HVN

HVN

Gap

8/9/2019 Daily DAX Journal 110810

2/2The Lonely TraderDisclaimer: All information is provided as market commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Loneexpressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information

results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your

Range Studies for DAX 0910 Monday, 09 August 2

Previous day range 104.0 Comments:

Previous day pattern NR 0440 GMT: Confidence in range projections is low and there is very little confluence.The volume profile for the last three to ten days is crowded, and a split distribution ha

formed with low volume in the 6320/30 area. High volume is above today's close, but

very near the last traded price. Again. This is a pattern that I am not comfortable with

It's almost as if I'm being tricked into having a bias.

Number of occurrences 97

(last 200 days)

Avg range after WS 140.4%

> 146.0

Jay Schneider -- FX and futures, range studies

San Diego Area, USA

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