8/9/2019 Daily DAX Journal 060810

1/2The Lonely TraderDisclaimer: All information is provided as ma rket commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Loneexpressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information

results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your

riday's focus: No trading until 30 minutes after the NFP release. The market will be all but dead beforehand, so no scalping

ther. After the release, if the market comes to my price points and in the way I have planned for, I will take the trade. Mean

the market does not break, retrace and bounce where I am willing to do business, I will not chase after it. In addition, I have

ee responsive buying or selling at or near my price points in order to get a good risk profile.

rade ideas:

ong -- Trade a bounce above 6375, targeting 6420. Trail thereafter.

hort -- Trade a bounce below 6330, targeting 6285. Trail thereafter.

Conservative range H

Conservative range L

At the moment, the bias for European stocks is up before the

US employment data. Given the tight ranges during the past

few days and the tension around the jobs data this week, I

expect the DAX to gap up at least 15 points, fill, and then

continue. However that doesn't mean I have a backup plan in

case it falls...I didn't get a chance to enter a trade on Thursday

as the market never traded to levels where I was willing to do

business.

High Extreme: 6496 (agg rng est, 138% fib ext)

High primary: 6445 (cons rng est, 123% fib ext)

Low primary: 6220 (7d POC, key fib retr, rng supt)

Low Extreme: 6190 (key fib retr, 6d bucket supt)

My confidence in this range projection is not high. The market

has been consolidating and a break is due. Given the season,

the data, and the recent ranges, the statistical measures I use

are not as effective -- if they are effective at all. I will need tosee decisive price action after the data release. In any event,

should be a good day for scalps.

Aggressive range L

ily DAXurnalAug 2010

DAX 30min Friday, 06 August 2010 Aggressive range H

Trade a bounce above 6380,

targeting 6420.

Consensus for NFP is a -70K change, with the range being between -150K to zero. Private payrolls are expected to

increase by 100K, with the range being 50K to 140K. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 9.6%, with

the range being 9.3% to 9.7%. Despite widespread cynicism about the numbers, everyone loves Freaky Friday.

Range studies: Aggressive 154.5; conservative 104.5; H 6445/50 L 6220 Calendar: GE industrial production, US employment

7POC

3POC

HVN

HVN

Trade a bounce below 6330,

targeting 6285.

8/9/2019 Daily DAX Journal 060810

2/2The Lonely TraderDisclaimer: All information is provided as ma rket commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Loneexpressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information

results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your

Range Studies for DAX 0910 Friday, 06 August 2

Previous day range 63.5 Comments:

Previous day pattern NR 0536 GMT: DAX continues to lose volume on average. The 3 day f igure is the lowest it's beenin several months, but that isn't unusual for August. Similar story for the 3 day range. Probes

and rotations, however, have remained consistent at 20 to 40 points. The timing has been

tricky and the direction unpredictable...but that isn't unusual for me either.

Number of occurrences 97

(last 200 days)

Avg range after WS 139.3%

> 88.5