The Confluence of Water Resources and

National SecurityWhere, why and how

policy currents converge.

Daene McKinney & Steve Pitman

Transboundary Water Resources

Water Resources National Security

Water in the landscape (above and

below ground) with current or potential value

to the community and

the environment.

- Western Australia Water and Rivers Commission

Condition of a nation’s safety from threats,

especially threats from

external sources.

- McGraw Hill Online

Two Perspectives:

Water Resources professionals:

When and how will national security affect water resources?

National Security professionals:

When and how will water affect national security?

Analysis:

Why, when & how have links developed?

CAUSES

Can we predict future occurrences?

INDICATORS

River Basin Case Studies Jordan

• Syria, Israel, Jordan Nile

• Ethiopia, Sudan, Egypt Indus

• India, Pakistan Tigris-Euphrates

• Turkey, Syria, Iraq

Jordan Basin Post WWI – Mandates 1948 – State of Israel 1950’s – plans 1960’s – conflicts 1967 – Six Day War PLO attacks 1980’s threats 1990’s treaties 2000’s 2nd Intifadeh

www.glowa-jordan-river.de

Jordan Basin Politically charged Population 10M+

• double in 30 years Already “water

stressed” Boundary issues Allocation inequities

www.glowa-jordan-river.de

Nile Basin Interested in 3 of 9

basin countries Egypt

• Lowest riparian• Most dependent• Most powerful• Big US aid recipient

Ethiopia• Contributes most• Uses least• Poorest

Sudan – in betweenwww.thewaterpage.com

Nile Basin Colonial cash-crop

economies 1929 Treaty Century Storage

Scheme 1959 Treaty Aswan High Dam Cold War politics Civil wars

www.thewaterpage.com

Indus Basin 1859-1915 - British

build canals for flood control and irrigation

1947 – Partition • India – key headwaters• Pakistan – bulk of canals

and farmland 1948 – India cuts flow,

Pakistani crops fail, Pakistanis call for war

1952-60 – World Bank mediation

Indus Water Treaty

earthtrends.wri.org

www.iucn.org

Tigris-Euphrates Basin Earliest water conflicts Turkey

• Source of both rivers• GAP - $30B project

Syria very dependent on Euphrates

Iraq totally dependent on both rivers

1975 – Crisis between Iraq and Syria

1990 – Ataturk Dam

earthtrends.wri.org

AnalysisNational Security-Water Resources Linkage

Common Factors: Arid areas w/ irrigated agriculture Power imbalance (economic/military) Presence of non-water disputes Non-joint development Outside influences*

CAUSESNational Security-Water Resources Linkage

Jordan Basin• Conflict exists before water disputes• One state alters status by occupying territory

Nile Basin• Lower riparian completely dependent• Powerful country publicly announces link

Indus Basin• Water policy of one state affects interest of

lower riparian Tigris-Euphrates

• Actions fuel unease over future possibilities

(Old) INDICATORS National Security-Water Resources Linkage

Unilateral development of international river –Postel & Wolf

Change in political boundaries creating new riparians -Wolf

Existing mechanisms unable to cope with changes -Wolf

Postel & Wolf :

Foreign Policy – September/October 2001

Previous retrospective indicators1. Unilateral development of a basin2. Change in political boundaries creating new

riparians

New predictive indicators3. Significant non-water-related tensions exist in the

basin 4. At least one basin state’s water resources are

vulnerable or nearly fully utilized

(New) INDICATORS National Security-Water Resources Linkage

Indicating Linkages Between Water Resources and National Security

At least one indicator from each column implies conditions are present for a water resources-national security policy linkage

Three or four indicators present signifies higher likelihood of policy linkage

Uzbekistan found itself in the position where all four applied, so what did they do?

I. At least one applies:

II. At least one applies:

Unilateral Development Non-Water Tensions

An attempt to unilaterally develop an international river,

often by a regional power. (Postel & Wolf)

Significant non-water-related tensions exist in the basin.

Major Change Scarce/Vulnerable Water

A large or rapid change in the physical setting (such as a new dam or irrigation scheme) or in

the political setting (such as break-up of a country) that

creates new riparians or new international rivers.

(Postel & Wolf)

and

At least one basin state’s water resources are vulnerable or

nearly fully utilized (or both).

Syr Darya Basin

Uzbek National Security Policy Related to Water

Water became a National Security Policy issue Decision taken to regarding water resources

• Two new reservoirs built and infrastructure modernized • Invest hard currency• New water management regime• Required relinquish (some) authority

Provided sufficient new storage to capture winter Kyrgyz releases

Uncoupled the basin-wide interconnection between the countries

Provided a secure source of water for economic development