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CYNEFIN SENSE-MAKING FRAMEWORK AND USAGE EXAMPLES

Agile Practice23.12.2015

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Maksim Gaponov – Agile/Lean Coach

Experience

10+ years in IT. Developer background and management experience as a team lead, project manager, product manager and CTO. Worked both in large companies and smaller start-ups. Over 7 years of Agile experience, Maksim is an seasoned coach, trainer and speaker at various conferences, including AgileDays.

Certificates

§ Member of Scrum Alliance, Certified Scrum Product Owner

§ Member of International Consortium for Agile (ICAgile), ICAgile Certified Professional, ICP-Business Value Analysis, ICP-Agile Coaching, ICAgileaccredited trainer

§ Member of Scrum.org, Professional Scrum Master (PSM I)

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CYNEFIN SENSE-MAKING FRAMEWORK

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What is sense-making?

“Sense-making is how do we make sense of the world so we can act in it.

If you can't draw a framework on the back off a table napkin from memory it has little utility for sense-making”

Dave Snowden

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Let’s describe the current state of things fistrly

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Complex Adaptive Systems

w Understanding through constraints:

- Order: fully constrained; predictable & repeatable outcomes

- Chaos: random, unconstrained, difficult to create or sustain

- Complex: system partially constrains behaviour, but behaviour modifies constraint

w The inherent uncertainty of a complex systems means we have to navigate a fitness landscape of possibilities

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Let’s take away and map ordered ones

w Understanding through constraints:

- Order: fully constrained; predictable & repeatable outcomes

- Chaos: random, unconstrained, difficult to create or sustain

- Complex: system partially constrains behaviour, but behaviour modifies constraint

w The inherent uncertainty of a complex systems means we have to navigate a fitness landscape of possibilities

www.luxoft.com

Now let’s take away the chaotic ones

w Understanding through constraints:

- Order: fully constrained; predictable & repeatable outcomes

- Chaos: random, unconstrained, difficult to create or sustain

- Complex: system partially constrains behaviour, but behaviour modifies constraint

w The inherent uncertainty of a complex systems means we have to navigate a fitness landscape of possibilities

www.luxoft.com

Finally let’s take away the ones falling into complex description

w Understanding through constraints:

- Order: fully constrained; predictable & repeatable outcomes

- Chaos: random, unconstrained, difficult to create or sustain

- Complex: system partially constrains behaviour, but behaviour modifies constraint

w The inherent uncertainty of a complex systems means we have to navigate a fitness landscape of possibilities

www.luxoft.com

We’re spending most of our time in Complex domain

w Highly sensitive to small changes (weak signals too easily dismissed)

w Granularity, gradient & enabling constraints

w Proximity & connectivity are key

w Shift from fail-safe design to multiple contradictory safe-to-fail experiments to avoid premature convergence

w Avoid confusing correlation with causation or simulation with prediction

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Obvious domain

Nature

Known knowns

Familiar, certain, well worn pathways

Constraints self-evident to all

Stable within universal constraints

Self evident solutions

Response

Sense-Categorize-Respond

Ensure sound process in place

Monitor for noncompliance & deviance

Test for complacency

Protect some pet mavericks

Preparation

Watch for outliers

Usable process

Right support people for key staff

Automate, but no automata

Anonymous appeal/whistle blowers

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Complicated domain

Nature

Known unknowns

Ordered, predictable, forecastable

Constraints evident and enforceable

Stable within constraints

Evidence susceptible of analysis

Response

Sense-Analyze-Respond

Determine experts or process to resolve

Manage & enforce process

Monitor effectiveness of constraints

Focus on exploitation not exploration

Preparation

Right people & process, right time

Process engineering with feedback

Diversity of experts in network

Sound Analytical practice

Stand aside but stay in touch

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Chaotic domain

Nature

Unknowable unknowns

Temporary state - no time

No evidence of any constraint

High turbulence no patterns

Old certainties no longer apply

Response

Act-Sense-Respond

Speed of authoritative response vital

Follow and enforce heuristics

Focus on constraints not solution

Use the opportunity to innovate

Preparation

Establish heuristics & Parables

Human sensor networks

Crews as crisis management teams

Simulation games for key managers

Multi-perspective dissent feedback

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Complex domain

Nature

Unknown unknowns

Messily coherent, patterns discernible

Partial changing constraints

Flux within stabilities

Evidence supports contradiction

Response

Probe-Sense-Respond

Monitor safe-to fail experiments

All contradiction within heuristics

Flex constraints to manage emergence

Agility key to amplification/dampening

Preparation

Create time and space for reflection

Human sensor networks operational

Social network stimulation & the like to create networks

Scenario planning (inc. micro)

Build and monitor ‘requisite diversity’

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Making sense of the world to act in it

There are three basic types of system: ordered, complex and chaotic.

Complex systems have propensities and dispositions but no linear material cause

In Cynefin order is divided into ‘obvious’ & complicated and the fifth domain) disorder.

The boundary between Obvious and Chaotic is shown as a cliff, or a catastrophic failure arising from complacency.

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SPLITTING USER STORIES

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Using Cynefin for User Story splitting

w Obvious – Just build it. Or, if it’s too big, find all the stories, and do the most valuable ones first.

w Complicated – Find all the stories, and do the most valuable and/or most risky ones first.

w Complex – Don’t try to find all the stories. Find one or two that will provide some value and teach you something about the problem and solution, build those and use what you learn to find the rest.

w Chaotic – Put out the fire; splitting stories probably isn’t important right now.

w Disordered – Figure out which domain you’re in before splitting so you don’t take the wrong approach. Richard Lawrence, http://www.agileforall.com/2014/08/cynefin-and-story-splitting/

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RETROSPECTIVES

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Using Cynefin on Retrospectives

w Obvious – just implement these improvements, add them to working agreements

w Complicated – find experts in your environment or internal/external consultants, ask them to help you

w Complex – brainstorm a set of small and time-bound experiments, find a way to measure outcomes, implement them

w Chaotic – distribute knowledge and wait some time until the issue transitions into a complex domain

w Disordered – brake these down until they start falling into one of domains

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COLLABORATION WITH COMPANY ENVIRONMENT

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Interventions in the complex domain

w Each intervention should be

- coherent

- safe-to-fail

- Finely grained, tangible

w Overall the portfolio should contain

- some that are oblique in nature

- include “naive” approaches

- a few high risk/high return options

w Contradictions are good!

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Upcoming Agile Practice webinars

Metrics that bring valueJanuary 14, 2016Svetlana Mukhina

User Story CanvasJanuary 26, 2016Maksim Gaponov

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