Cycle de vie, emploi et retraite Jean-Olivier HAIRAULT, Professeur à Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne et...
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Transcript of Cycle de vie, emploi et retraite Jean-Olivier HAIRAULT, Professeur à Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne et...
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Cycle de vie, emploi et retraite
Jean-Olivier HAIRAULT, Professeur à Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne et à l’Ecole d’Economie de Paris (EEP)
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The life-cycle decisions
RetirementEducation Working life
When employed: hours, wage
bargaining and search on the job
When unemployed: job search
Saving and consumption
participationparticipation
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Two stylized facts
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Fact 1
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.2.4
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au
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i
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010années
txemp2554m txemp5054m
txemp5559m txemp6064m
Fra-HommesTaux d'emploi par âge
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Fact 2
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Fact 2
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Fact 2 : Focusing on older workers
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Fact 2 : Focusing on older workers
60 65 55 years old
54 % 13%
37%Financial costsEuropean Target : 50%
Sweden : 78%G-B : 67%Germany: 56%
Sweden : 57%G-B : 40%Germany : 21%
Why?
To increase the retirement age
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Fact 2: Focusing on older workers
Ita
JapSue
Bel
Usa
GBr
Fra
EspCan
PB
All
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69
Age de retraite de référence
Ta
ux
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mp
loi
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tif
55
-59
/2
5-5
9
Droite d'ajustement
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L’horizon d’activité se raccourcit avec l’âge
La perspective de la retraite décourage tout «investissement » des et dans les seniors
Pour un chômeur proche de la retraite : à quoi bon chercher un emploi ?
Pour une entreprise : à quoi bon formerou embaucher un travailleur proche de la retraite ?
EntréeVie active
AgeRetraite
Impact négatif de la date butoir sur l’emploide la génération la plus proche de la retraite
Baisse du taux d’emploi à proximité de l’âge de la retraite dans tous les pays
=60 ansFrance
50
Ce n’est pas l’âge absolu qui compte mais la distanceà la retraite
65 ansOCDE
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Oecd data on labor force: international comparisons:
employment rate and unemployment rate by age: 15-19;
20-24; 25-29; 30-50; 50-54; 55-59; 60-64; 65-70; Time
series and cross-country.
French Labor Force Survey: Enquête Emploi; employment
and unemployment rate by age; transitions employment-
unemployment by age
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Part I :Retirement and Social Security System
Chapter 1. SS Efficiency: Funded versus PAYG system
A. optimal accumulation
B. Uncertainty (idiosyncratic/global) and risk sharing
(intra/intergenerational)
C. SS System and Inequality
Chapter 2 . Topics
A. Role of intergenerational altruism
B. Time-inconsistent choices
C. Political economy
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Chapter 3. Retirement age decision
A. Principles and the role of productivity, health and death
B. The SS neutrality and the tax on continued activity
C. A laffer curve view
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Part 2: Life-cycle Employment
Chapter 4. Older worker Experiences
A. International comparisons
B. French specificities
Chapter 5. Job destructions and Job creations over the life
cycle
A. A positive theory
B. Age-Employment Policies
C. Explaining transatlantic differences
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Chapter 6: Retirement and Job search interactions
A. A joint decision
B. Delaying retirement age: a double dividend
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Les seniors et l'emploi en France, Conseil d'Analyse
Economique, 2005.
COR Reports
OECD reports on older worker employment
L’impact du vieillissement démographique sur les
mécanismes macroéconomiques, Antoine d'Autume
Artus P. et F. Legros (1999) Le choix du système de retraite,
Economica.
Charpin J.-M. (1999) L’avenir de nos retraites, Rapport au
Premier ministre, La Documentation Française
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Social Security and optimal capital accumulation
« National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model », Peter
Diamond, AER Dec. 1965.
“The Social Insurance Paradox,” Henry Aaron, The Canadian,
Journal of Economics and Political Science, 1966.
“Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence”, Andrew
Abel et al., REStud, Jan 1989.
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Uncertainty, borrowing constraints
“On the Role of Social Security as a Means for Efficient Risk
Sharing in an Economy where Human Capital is not
Tradable”, Robert Merton, chpt. in Zvi Bodie et al., Financial
Aspects of the U.S. Pensions Systems, 1983.
“Intergenerational Risk-Sharing and Risk-Taking of a
Pension Fund,” Gollier, C., Journal of Public Economics
(December, 2007),
“The Risk-Sharing Implications of Alternative Social Security
Arrangements,” Storesletten, K., C. I. Telmer and A. Yaron,
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 50
(June 1999), 213—259.
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Uncertainty, borrowing constraints
Krueger, D. and F. Kubler, “Pareto-Improving Social Security
Reform When Financial Markets are Incomplete!?”
American Economic Review, June, 2006.
Dirk Krueger & Felix Kubler, 2002. "Intergenerational Risk-
Sharing via Social Security when Financial Markets Are
Incomplete," American Economic Review, American
Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 407-410, May.
Conesa, J. and D. Krueger, “Social Security Reform with
Heterogeneous Agents,” Review of Economic Dynamics 2
(October 1999), 757—795.
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Inequality and Social Security
“On the Distributional Effects of Social Security Reform,”
Huggett, M. and G. Ventura, Review of Economic Dynamics
(July 1999), 498—531.
Inequality and Social Security Reforms, Journal of Economic
Dynamics and Control, (J.O Hairault and F. Langot), 2008.
Le caractère plus égalitaire de la retraite par répartition:
une cause entendue? (joint with F. Langot), in Revue
d'Economie Politique, 2002, vol. 112, p.563-572.
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The role of altruism
De Nardi, M., “Wealth Inequality and Intergenerational Links,”
Review of Economic Studies 71 (July 2004), 743—768.
Luisa Fuster, 1999. "Is Altruism Important for
Understanding the Long-Run Effects of Social
Security?," Review of Economic Dynamics.
“A Welfare Analysis of Social Security in a Dynastic
Framework”, (Luisa Fuster, Ayse İmrohoroğlu and Selahattin
İmrohoroğlu), International Economic Review, Vol. 44, No.
4, November 2003.
“Elimination of Social Security in a Dynastic Framework’’,
(Luisa Fuster, Ayse İmrohoroğlu and Selahattin İmrohoroğlu),
Review of Economic Studies. forthcoming
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The role of mandatory savings
“Time Inconsistent Preferences and Social Security”, (Ayse
İmrohoroğlu, Selahattin İmrohoroğlu and Douglas Joines),
Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 118, issue 2, May
2003
“Are You Sure You’re Saving Enough for Retirement?”
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(3) Summer 2007: 59-
80.
“What Accounts for the Variation in Retirement Saving
Across U.S. Households?” (with B. D. Bernheim and S.
Weinberg), American Economic Review 91(4) (September
2001):832-57.
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Political economy
"The political economy of social security: a survey,"
European Journal of Political Economy, Galasso, Vincenzo &
Profeta, Paola, 2002. Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-29,
March.
Boldrin, M and A. Rustichini (2000), Political Equilibria with
Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, 3, 41-78.
Cooley, T. and J. Soares (1997), A Positive Theory of Social
Security Based on Reputation," Journal of Political Economy,
107, 135-160.
Will social security boom survive the baby, Thomas F.
Cooley and Jorge Soares, Carnegie-Rochester Conference
Series on Public Policy 45 (1996).
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Transition from a Paygo to a Funded Retirement System
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Retirement Age
Economics of retirement, Alan L. Gustman and Thomas L.
Steinmeier
Ageing and retirement age. What can we learn from the
Overlapping Generations Model ? Antoine d'Autume
Blanchet D. and L. Caussat (2000), Le libre choix de l’âge
de la retraite, approche économique, in Retraites choisies
et progressives, D. Taddei ed., Rapport du Conseil
d’Analyse Economique, La Documentation française
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Social Security (non-)neutrality
Gruber, J. and D.Wise, “Social Security and Retirement: An
International Comparison,” American Economic Review 88
(May 1998), 158—163.
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The laffer curve on the continued activity tax
Inciter à différer le départ en retraite: une analyse en
termes de courbe de Laffer (joint with F. Langot and T.
Sopraseuth), in Revue d'Economie Politique, 2005, 115,
p.241-263.
Quantifying the Laffer Curve on the Continued Activity Tax
in a Dynastic Framework. International Economic Review,
(J.O. Hairault, F. Langot and T. Sopraseuth), Forthcoming.
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Life Cycle Employment
Heckman, James J, 1974. "Life Cycle Consumption and
Labor Supply: An Explanation of the Relationship
Between Income and Consumption Over the Life
Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic
Association, vol. 64(1), pages 188-94, March
Life-cycle equilibrium unemployment, A. Chéron, J.O.
Hairault and F. Langot.
Les effets à rebours de l'âge de la retraite sur le taux
d'emploi des seniors, (joint with F. Langot and T.
Sopraseuth), in Economie et Statistique, 2007.
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Retirement and job search interactions
The Pre-Retirement Job Search: A Basic Explanation of the
Older Worker Employment. J.O. Hairault, F. Langot and T.
Sopraseuth