Cyber Conflict is 'Uncharted Territory' - CNN

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23.12.14 North Korea cyber conflict is 'uncharted territory' - CNN.com

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Hong Kong (CNN)-- The United States and North Korea have longfound themselves lock edin a bitter cycle of escalating and

deescalating tensions but the current cyber conflict maybeespecially hard to predict.

CNN's Wilfred Chandiscussed this with Mike Chinoy, a longtime

North Korea expert who has traveled to the country 17 times, Senior

Fellow at the U.S.-China Institute at the University of Southern

California, and CNN's former Senior Asia Correspondent, whose

new book "The Last POW" tells the story of the detention in North

Korea of 85-year-old American tourist Merril Newman.

There werereports Tuesday that North Korea's Internet wasdown, the d isruption coming amid a growing war of wordsbetween the United States and North Korea ove r acyberattack on Sony Pictures. Do you think the Unite d Statesdisabled North Korea's Internet in retaliation for the Sonyhack?

Chinoy: I'm not convinced that the U.S.government was behind the outage of the

North Korean Internet.

The issue though is not whether it was or it

wasn't, the issue is what the North Koreansthink it was.

And I think it's safe to assume, unless theythemselves took their system offline for theirown security -- which is not impossible --

they'll be looking to respond.

And if the U.S. government actually took down North Korea's

Internet, that has its own implications.

Because if the United States is officially engaging in cyberattacks

then it implies North Korea can do it to us, and everybody else cando it to everybody else.

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A cyber conflict with North Korea is'dangerous uncharted territory'December 23, 2014 -- Updated 0735 GMT (1535 HKT)

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Who's responsible for NK internet outage?

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

Chinoy: Hacking has created a

dangerous, unpredictablesituation

There are no agreed upon rules

of the road in terms of cy ber

w arfare

North Korea has invested

significantly in its cyber warf are

capabilities

Mike Chinoy says cyber c onflict w ith North Korea poses

unpredictable c hallenges.

'Dr. Evil' hijacks 'SNL,' slamsNorth Korea

Obama: I'm not being "rolled" byPutin

Larry King blames media forSony hack

How did this spy's wife getpregnant?

Author's journey inside ISIS:

They're 'more dangerous thanpeople realize'

North Korea and the Sony hack:The war of words escalates

Cuban spy's ultimate mystery:

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How does the Sony hacking saga complicate thesituation betwee n the United States and SouthKorea?

It's a brave new world. We now have a situation where it's

entirely possible you've got third-party hackers possiblyhelping the North Koreans in the original Sony hack,entirely possibly taking down the North Korean Internet,

who are beyond the control of any government. And thatmakes it much, much harder to assess.

Part of what makes this dangerous is there are no agreedrules of the road in terms of cyber warfare in the waythere are existing broad rules of the road for other

security issues -- even if they are frequently violated.

We're absolutely in uncharted territory. And we're in

uncharted territory with pundits and the political classoutraged in the United States, and a new, unknown NorthKorean leader in a system that we don't understand the

dynamics of very well. So that' s a worrisome combination.

Do you think North Korea hacked Sony?

I don't think the President of the United States would've

been given ta lking points that so explicitly blamed NorthKorea if the U.S. government didn't have very highconfidence there was a North Korean connection.

Now, whether or not the North Koreans explicitly gave theorder and then farmed it out to teams of people in China

or elsewhere, we don't know enough about the decision-making process.

How sophisticated are North Korea's hackingcapabilities?

We know they have a robust cyber capability. The NorthKoreans have devoted a lot of resources to giving themselves a lotof cyber capabilities.

Their broader security strategy has changed under Kim Jong Un --there's a heavy focus on nuclear, cyber, and asymmetrical warfare

capabilities, which enables them to reduce expenditures on aconventional military.

North Korea is the weaker, smaller power, and asymmetrical warfareis the approach of choice.

The North Koreans are not suicidal. If they were responsible for theSony attack, they targeted a specific company for a specific reason.It's hard for me to imagine they're going to take out the U.S. power

grid.

How do the United States and North Korea view each otherright now?

There's layers and layers of hostility and mistrust. Ever

since the Korean War, the United States has seen NorthKorea as this dangerous, threatening country and there'salways been concern when the North Koreans do

something aggressive.

In North Korea, based on my 17 visits there, what comes

through clearly is the reverse image. They feel undersiege from the United States. They are convinced that the

American goal is to do them in, to bring them down.

They feel alone and beleaguered and they're determined

to keep their system afloat at all costs.

The North Korean strategy has always beenbrinksmanship -- tit for tat, you hit me, we hit back harder.

Part of their playbook is to make people think they are moreextreme, they are crazier.

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hacking attack on Sony that led

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film's release.

N. Korea warns U.S.: Worse is comingDecember 22, 2014 -- Updated 1327 GMT (2127 HKT)

President Barack Obama says

he doesn't consider North

Korea's hack of Sony Pictures

"an act of w ar."

N. Korea's hack 'cybervandalism'December 22, 2014 -- Updated 0307 GMT (1107 HKT)

The U.S. has asked China for

help battling North Korean

hacking of American

information systems, a senior

administration official tells CNN.

U.S. seeks China's help in hackingDecember 20, 2014 -- Updated 2243 GMT (0643 HKT)

Alex Gladstein, director of

institutional affairs at Human

Rights Foundation, says he'd

like "to disrupt North Korea and

help end the Kim regime's

monopoly of knowledge."

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Korea received help from

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A lot of it is rhetoric -- one of the challenges in situations

like this is how to judge rhetoric.

So when they threaten to attack the White House and so

on, you have to be careful not to take it literally.

Could this hacking crisis continue to escalate?

Look, in 1976, North Korean soldiers crossed the demarcation lineat Panmunjon, killed two Americans with axes, and we didn't go to

war.

In 2010, the North Koreans sank a South Korean ship, killing dozens

of South Korean sailors, we didn't go to war.

In 2010 when they shelled Yeonpyong islandand killed South

Koreans, we didn't go to war.

We're going to go to war because they hacked a movie production

company? I mean, you know, let's have a little bit of perspectiveabout it.

That being said, this has created a kind of perfect storm of a realthreat with cyberattacks, with implications in terms of what else mighthappen.

There's tremendous political pressure on the Obama administrationto do something, even though the toolkit is somewhat limited.

And what's new here is this is the biggest crisis since North Korea'syouthful leader Kim Jong Un came to power three years ago.

How could this play out in the long run?

One of the likely responses is going to be acceleratedmoves toward a North Korean nuclear test.

Lost in all the day to day headlines about Sony is thebigger strategic security picture which is the NorthKoreans are moving full speed ahead to enhance their

nuclear capability.

They've got a plutonium program, they've got a uranium

program. Each time they do a nuclear test they movefurther toward having the capability to miniaturize awarhead.

Once they can miniaturize a warhead they've definitelygot medium range missiles. They've tested a long range

missile, though it's not clear how well it works. There isnothing happening to constrain that.

What worries me is there hasn't even been an attempt inthe last couple of years to talk about this.

Without a diplomatic agreement for them to curtail or rollback their nuclear program, they will soon have in a

period of time, it's hard to judge how long, a larger nuclear arsenal,

the ability to miniaturize a warhead, and a delivery system that canreach the continental United States.

Then it gets really scary.

Short of going to war and taking down the North Korean regime, it's

very hard to see how you reverse that, unless you get back intosome kind of negotiating process, and that seems very unlikely.

There's a big debate still over whether we should talk to them.

My sense is the North Koreans still would very much like to talk to

the United States.

But the Obama administration has not been in the mood to do it.

Obama has just done this major initiative with Cuba, he's beentalking to Iran, but in security terms the North Koreans are scarier.

CNN's Amara Walker speaks to

a f ormer North Korean prison

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w itnessed and was f orced to

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The chief of the Commission of

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'Moment of truth' for North KoreaNovember 18, 2014 -- Updated 0559 GMT (1359 HKT)

Kim Jong Il's former bodyguard

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Cyber Conflict is 'Uncharted Territory' - CNN

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