Current Warning System of India Meteorological Department.
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Transcript of Current Warning System of India Meteorological Department.
Current Warning System Current Warning System of of
India Meteorological DepartmentIndia Meteorological Department
Most of the natural hazards are weather related
WINTER (JAN-FEB)
PRE-MONSOON(MAR-MAY
MONSOON(JUN-SEP)
POST-MONSOON(OCT-DEC)
WESTERN DISTURBANCES COLD WAVE, FOG
CYCLONIC DISTURBANCESHEAT WAVETHUNDER STORMS, SQUALLSHAIL STORMTORNADO
SOUTHWEST MONSOON CIRCULATIONMONSOON DISTURBANCES
NORTHEAST MONSOONCYCLONIC DISTURBANCES
Nodal agencies for monitoring and assessment of natural hazards
India Meteorological Department : Cyclone, Floods, Drought, earthquakes and other meteorological hazards
Central Water Commission : Floods
Geological Survey of India : Landslides
Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) : Tsunami
Defence Research and Development Organisation : Snow and Avalanches
MADRAS MSLP 1796-2004
995
1000
1005
1010
1015
1020
1796
1808
1820
1832
1844
1856
1868
1880
1892
1904
1916
1928
1940
1952
1964
1976
1988
2000
YEAR
PR
ES
SU
RE
(h
Pa)
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
DecemberIndia has more than 100 sites back to the 19th century)
Source: Rob Allan, UKMO
North Region
Central Region
South Region
West Region
East Region
North East Region
Regional CentresDelhi, Kolkata, Guwahati, Nagpur, Mumbai, Chennai
Pune Centre for Research /Training and surface instrumentation
National Weather Forecasting Centre at New Delhi
Meteorological Centres
1. Srinagar2. Chandigarh3. Shimla4. Dehra Dun5. Lucknow6. Patna7. Itanagar8. Jaipur9. Ranchi10. Agartatala11. Ahmedabad12. Bhopal13. Raipur14. Bhuvaneshwar15. Hyderabad16. Bangalore17. Thiruvananthapura
m18. Panjim19. Gangtok
Nowcasting for next 6-12 hours (Venue/ location specific)
Short Range for next 72 hours (Location/District/ State/Met Sub-division)
Medium Range for next 3-7 days (District)
Extended range for 10-15 days (Met Subdivision/State/ Homogeneous regions)
Long range for month/season (Homogeneous regions/country)
Spatial and Temporal domains of Forecast
Nowcast, short, medium and extended range Forecast
Public Weather Local Forecast Long Range Forecast Tropical Cyclone Forecast & Warnings Warnings related to all other Disaster Sea State Forecast Coastal Zone Forecasts Forecasts to Aviation Forecasts for Agriculture Customized Forecasts to different Sectors- Power,
Tourism, Defense, Adventure, Road/Railway transports, Public Utility, VIP functions, Strategic operations, Space, event based etc
IMD’s Forecast & Warning
General Weather Forecasting
Three tier forecasting system (National,
Regional and State)
• Issued 4 times to Media (Doordarshan /AIR), NDM
• General weather for 3 days with 4 days outlook
• Rainfall/Snowfall, Temperature (cold/Heat wave,
Thunderstorms, Squall, Hailstorm, Fog/Frost,
Cyclone forecasting
Heavy rainfall/snowfall Thunderstorm/Squall/Hailstorm Heat/Cold Wave Frost Fog Strong winds Storm surge
Warning criterion defined for each parameter SOP in placeLinkages with Media, Disaster authoritiesScheduled time of issue
Warnings Parameters
National Weather Forecasting Centre
National Weather Forecasting Centre
SHORT RANGE FORECAST & WARNINGS
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3
13
Heavy Rainfall Warning (15 July 2012)
Heavy rain at one or two places
>6.5 cm or more
Heavy to very heavy at one or two / at a few places
>12.5 cm or more
Heavy to very heavy at a few places or extreme heavy
>12.5 cm or more
No warning Nil
14
Heat wave & Thundersquall warning (25 May, 2012)
Heat wave (5.0 to 6.00C above normal)
Thundersquall at one or two places
>22 kts and above
Severe heat wave ( 7.00 C aboveNormal or station reported 45.00 C or more)
Thundersquall at a few places
>22 kts andabove
Severe heat wave ( 7.00 C aboveNormal or station reported 45.00 C or more) at wide area
Severe Thundersquall at many places
>22 kts and above
No warning No warning Nil
15
Fog/visibility warning (17 January, 2012)
Visibility at one or two places
<500M
Visibility at a few/many places
<200 M
Visibility at most places
<200 M or less than <50 M
No Warning Nil
16
Heavy rain/snow & hail storm warning (16 January, 2012)
Very heavy snow at one or two to many places
>65 cm
Ths + hail+Squall
Heavy snow at a few places
>35 cm
Ths+hail+ squall
Heavy snow at one or two places
>35 cm
Ths+ squall
No warning Nil
17
Cold wave/ visibility & ground frost warning, (11 January, 2012)
Cold wave (5.0 to 6.00C below normal)
Ground frost at one or two places
Visibility at one or two places < 500 M
Severe cold wave ( 70 C below normal)
Ground frost at a few places
Visibility at a few/many places<200 M
Cold day ( day temp. <150C) or severe cold wave
Ground frost at many places
Visibility at most places<50 M
No warning No warning No warning
Weather Forecasting for sectoral applications
Forecast for VVIP Movement•Forecast of Weather like rain, thunderstorm etc•Cloudiness•Max /Min Temp•HumidityDisseminated through Fax and e-mail
Forecast for NavySynoptic ConditionsWindSSTSea conditions
Weather Forecasting for sectoral applications
S. No
Height(AMSL)
Wind DirectionWind Speed ( Km/hour)
Temperature( Deg C )
Weather
1 3.1 km SOUTHWESTERLY10
+14GENERALLY CLOUDY SKY
2 4.5 kmSOUTHWESTERLY 10
+05GENERALLY CLOUDY SKY
3 5.8 km SOUTHWESTERLY 10
-04GENERALLY CLOUDY SKY
4 7.6 kmSOUTHWESTERLY 60
-16GENERALLY CLOUDY SKY
5 9.5 kmWEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
100-28
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
Forecast for Joint Indo-UK Army mountaineering expedition (MAHADEV) Lat. 30 59 N/ 79.090 EValid for 24 hrs commencing from 1330 hrs IST of /09/2012………….. to 1330 hrs IST of 17 /09/2012………………. WEATHER: GENERALLY CLOUDY SKY WITH A FEW SPELLS OF RAIN/THUNDERSHOWERS, ONE OR TWO MAY BE HEAVY (30-60 MM). SURFACE WIND WOULD BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10-15 KMPHOutlook for subsequent 48 hours IST from 1330 hours IST of -09-2012………… to 1330 hours IST of 18 -09-2012……… GENERALLY CLOUDY SKY WITH A FEW SPELLS OF RAIN/THUNDERSHOWERS, ONE OR TWO MAY BE HEAVY (30-70 MM). SURFACE WIND WOULD BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10-15 KMPH
Wind and temperature in free air
Weather Forecasting for sectoral applications
City forecastCity forecast • Local forecast for 211 Local forecast for 211 citiescities
• Local forecast is issued 4 Local forecast is issued 4 times a daytimes a day
• Forecasts are available in Forecasts are available in IMD’s web siteIMD’s web site
• Forecasts are provided to Forecasts are provided to All India Radio, Door All India Radio, Door Darshan and local pressDarshan and local press
• Extreme weather and Extreme weather and climatological informations climatological informations for these cities are also for these cities are also available in IMD’s websiteavailable in IMD’s website
• Disseminated to Public, WMO through email, website
City Climatology of extreme eventsCity Climatology of extreme events
Nowcasting ServicesNowcasting Services
Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC)- Tropical Cyclone, New Delhi
Monitoring and prediction of Cyclones over the North Indian Ocean Monitoring and prediction of Cyclones over the North Indian Ocean Issue of Tropical weather outlook/ Cyclone Advisories to the Issue of Tropical weather outlook/ Cyclone Advisories to the WMO/ESCAP Panel Countries (Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, WMO/ESCAP Panel Countries (Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, Srilanka, Maldives, Oman and Pakistan)Srilanka, Maldives, Oman and Pakistan) and Tropical Cyclone and Tropical Cyclone Advisories for Aviation as per guidelines of ICAOAdvisories for Aviation as per guidelines of ICAO
Issue of Cyclone BulletinsIssue of Cyclone Bulletins• Bulletin for India coastBulletin for India coast• Tropical weather outlook : Once a day based on 0300 UTC observationTropical weather outlook : Once a day based on 0300 UTC observation• Special Tropical Weather Outlook : Twice a day based on 0300 and Special Tropical Weather Outlook : Twice a day based on 0300 and
1200 UTC observation during depression stage1200 UTC observation during depression stage• Tropical Cyclone Advisories : Every three hourly during cyclone periodTropical Cyclone Advisories : Every three hourly during cyclone period• Tropical Cyclone Advisories for Aviation as per the guidelines of ICAO Tropical Cyclone Advisories for Aviation as per the guidelines of ICAO
every six hourly during cyclone periodevery six hourly during cyclone period• Quadrant winds (Structure Forecast)Quadrant winds (Structure Forecast)
BULLETINS AND WARNINGS
1. Pre-cyclone watch – Issued to Cabinet Secretary and Senior Officials indicating formation of a cyclonic disturbance – potential to intensify into a Tropical Cyclone and the coastal belt likely to be affected.
2. Cyclone Alert- Issued at least 48 hrs in advance indicating expected adverse weather conditions.
3. Cyclone warning – Issued at least 24 hrs in advance indicating latest position of Tropical Cyclone, intensity, time and point of landfall, storm surge height, type of damages expected and actions suggested.
4. Post-Landfall Outlook- Issued about 12 hrs before landfall & till cyclone force winds prevail; District Collectors of interior districts besides the coastal areas are also informed.
5. Finally a ‘De-Warning’ message is issued
when the Tropical Cyclone weakens.
BULLETINS AND
WARNINGS
Sea area bulletinSea area bulletin
Coastal weather bulletinCoastal weather bulletin
Bulletins for Indian navyBulletins for Indian navy
Fisheries warningsFisheries warnings
Port warningsPort warnings
Aviation warningAviation warning
Bulletins for departmental exchangesBulletins for departmental exchanges
Bulletins for AIR/ Doordarshan/ pressBulletins for AIR/ Doordarshan/ press
CWDS bulletinsCWDS bulletins
Warnings for registered/ designated Warnings for registered/ designated
users.users.
Telephone, Tele-faxTelephone, Tele-fax VHF/HFRTVHF/HFRT CWDSCWDS Police Wireless, Police Wireless, AFTNAFTN Internet (e-mail), Internet (e-mail), WebsitesWebsites Radio/TV networkRadio/TV network Mobile PhonesMobile Phones SMSSMS
PWS-Cyclone Improvement in lead period of
forecast and warning The cyclone track, landfall,
intensity and wind forecasts are now issued upto 72 hrs which was earlier issued for 24 hrs only.
Value added services The cone of uncertainty in
cyclone track forecast Cyclone wind forecast in different
quadrant, Forecast map, Multi-hazard
warning map of India
• Flood Prone areas in India~ 40 million Ha
• Coordination through 10 Flood
Meteorological Offices of IMD
• 166 Flood Forecasting Centres of Central
Water Commission --- { 134 level forecasting
& 32 inflow forecasting }
Flood
• Hydrometeorological services through• Real time rainfall monitoring, • quantitative precipitation forecast (flood
forecasting) • Dissemination to State Govt and CWC• Mode of communication:
• Telefax• E-mail• Website
• Monitoring Meteorological drought.• Preparation of Drought Climatology• Delineation and identification of Drought Prone areas • Monitoring Agricultural drought conditions during SW and NE monsoon
seasons by preparing aridity anomaly maps.
Drought Monitoring
District Level Agromet Advisoy Service
Milestones 1932, 1945, 1976
23 State Agromet Service Centre in
collaboration with SDA
Agro-advisory preparation - Monday &
Thursday
Composite Agro-advisory preparation-
Tuesday & Friday
Dissemination- AIR, Doordarshan, Print
media, Website
Farmers Weather Bulletin :
Issued daily once/twice by MCs and RMCs
and disseminated to public through AIR and
to district collectors through fax/email
Weather Forecasting Web Page
Weather Forecasting Web Page
Weather Forecasting Web Page
Cyclone Web Page of IMD
Monsoon Web Page of IMD
LINKAGE WITH DISASTER MANAGEMENT AUTHORITIES
NATIONAL LEVEL :
1. CONCERNED MINISTRY
2. NATIONAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY
3. HIGHER OFFICIALS LINKED WITH DISASTER MANAGEMENT
INCLUDING PORT, SHIPPING, TRANPORT, TELECOM
AUTHORITIES
4. NATIONAL PRESS AND ELECTRONIC MEDIA
STATE LEVEL :
1. CHIEF SECRETARY
2. SPECIAL RELIEF COMMISSIONER
3. STATE DISASTER MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY
4. REGISTERED WARNEES
5. FISHERMEN, FISHERY OFFICIALS, PORTS, COASTAL SHIPS
6. LOCAL PRESS AND ELECTRONIC MEDIA
User Workshops
Print and Electronic Media briefing
Media workshop
FAQ and Terminology
Publication of leaflets
Public Education and Reaching out
Thrust areas The thrust areas of IMD include :
Improvement in scientific understanding, Improvement in monitoring and prediction of disastrous
weather like heavy rain/snowfall over data sparse Himalayan region and adjoining plains and cyclonic disturbances over north Indian Ocean using land/Ocean and space based tools
Improvement in nowcast of meso-scale disastrous events like thunderstorm, hailstorm and tornado,
Improvement in space based telecommunication measures and Forecast Demonstration Projects on
• Cyclone • Thunderdstorm • Fog• heavy rain during monsoon due to Continental Tropical
Convergence Zone (CTCZ)
Thank youThank you