CURRENT PERSPECTIVES ON FOSSIL FUEL RESOURCES

Fusion Power Associates 25th Anniversary Meeting and Symposium

December 13, 2004

John Sheffield

Joint Institute for Energy and Environment

University of Tennessee

FOSSIL FUELS INCLUDE

• Coal• Lignite• Peat• Conventional Oil• Heavy Oil, Oil Sands, and Shale Oil• Gas and Natural Gas Liquids• Methane Hydrates

Global Hydrocarbon Reserves and Resources in GtC

Consumption Reserve Resource1860-1998 1998

Resource

Base

Addit'l

Occur.

97 2.7 120 120 240

Oil

Convent'lUnconvent'l 6 0.2 120 320 440 1200

36 1.2 90 170 260 12200

Gas

Convent'lUnconvent'l 1 -- 140 530 670 12200

Coal 155 2.4 530 4620 5150 3600

TOTAL 295 6.5 1000 5760 6760 17000

Source: Nakicenovic et al., 1996; Nakicenovic, Grubler and McDonald, 1998;WEC 1998;Masters et al., 1994; Rogner et al., 2000.

FOSSIL FUELS ARE INTERCHANGEABLE

• All fossil fuels may be both gasified and converted to liquids.

• Consequently, all of the fossil resources should be included when we consider availability for a particular purpose e.g. transportation or electricity production.

RUNNING OUT OF AND INTO OIL

• David Greene et al (ORNL and U. Tennessee) have analyzed global oil depletion up to 2050 for a number of scenarios. http://wwwcta.ornl.gov/cta/Publications/Publications_2003.html

• They consider both conventional and unconventional oil resources. 1 Gtoe = 7.33 billion barrels.

• ROW conventional oil production may peak in 2010 - 2030. Including OPEC around 2030 - 2050. To meet demand, the difference will be made up from unconventional oil

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONCLUSIONS OF GREENE’S PAPER

• Present trends imply ROW conventional oil peak in period 2010 - 2030.

• Transition to unconventional oil may be rapid: 7-9% growth.

• First suppliers from Venezuela, Canada, Russia.• Vast quantities of shale oil (or coal, NG) may be

needed before 2050 - notably in high demand case.

 

 

COAL AND NATURAL GAS

• From talk by Rita Bajura (NETL) at the NRL - Energy Options for the Future meeting www.

• World recoverable coal reserves 1,083 billion tons - 210 -year supply at current use.

• Coal is mainly used for electricity production - 92% in U.S. and 66% in the World.

• Issues of mine safety and environmental impact.

 

 

 

 

 

 

ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES FOR COAL USE

• DOE’s goals: • Improved efficiency

• NOx and SOx removal

• Mercury removal

• CO2 sequestration.

• Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) is a promising pathway to “Zero-Emission” Plants

 

NATURAL GAS

• World proven natural gas reserves 5,500 Tcf - 62-year supply at current use rates (Hydrates?).

• Cleanest fossil fuel.• Rapid rate of increase in use.• Price is volatile.• In U.S. 24% for electricity, 32% in industry, and

44% other.• In World 36% electricity, 23% industry, and 41%

other.

 

 

 

 

 

CONCLUSIONS

• There is a lot of fossil fuel. Needed investment an issue.

• Uncertainty in total recoverable amount - issue of unit cost.

• Likely they will be major part of U.S. and Global energy mix for at least the next 50years.

• Uneven distribution and pollution are major problems.

– Carbon sequestration at scale envisioned is still a young technology

– Near-zero emission technologies (NOx, SOx, CO2, Hg) will be necessary to secure long-term future for coal.