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Transcript of CSUSM Smoking and GPA Analysis Business Statistics 304 Walter Evans Farzana Mohsini Sheryl Lejano...
![Page 1: CSUSM Smoking and GPA Analysis Business Statistics 304 Walter Evans Farzana Mohsini Sheryl Lejano Ryan Thomas.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062322/56649c7d5503460f94932f41/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
CSUSM Smoking and GPA AnalysisBusiness Statistics 304
•Walter Evans•Farzana Mohsini•Sheryl Lejano•Ryan Thomas
![Page 2: CSUSM Smoking and GPA Analysis Business Statistics 304 Walter Evans Farzana Mohsini Sheryl Lejano Ryan Thomas.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062322/56649c7d5503460f94932f41/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Three Reasons
•Students smoke for pleasure.
•Students’ smoking habits may be tied to a person’s family history.
•Smoking may depend of student age and knowledge .
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Mission Statement• Smoking has a negative, positive or neutral impact on the success of
students.
• Our analysis will assist us in planning and implementing smoking intervention programs for Cal State San Marcos.
• Programs may be helpful in preventing the habit of tobacco use in school.
• Help us take action in making an effort to inform the council and promote a lesser degree of smoking on campus.
• Our group would like to determine whether or not smoking on campus is decreasing or increasing and why that is so.
• To properly evaluate the extensiveness of a student smoker’s habits and the level of success a student has accomplished.
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Cal State San Marcos Smoking Survey• Gender: Male Female • • Class: Freshman Sophomore Junior Senior • • Age: 17-20 21-24 25-28 29-32 33-36 37-40 >40 • What is your major? _____________
• What is your G.P.A.? <= 2.0 2.01~2.4 2.41~2.80 2.81~3.20 3.21~3.60 >3.6
• • Do you have a family history of smoking? YES NO • When I see a person smoking, it…• makes him/her more attractive. • makes him/her less attractive • has no impact on their attractiveness.• Would you date a person who is smoker? YES NO • • Do you smoke tobacco?• YES NO • • If YES, how many times do you smoke a day?• 1-3 times 4-6 times 7-9 times >10 times • • How long have you been smoking? < 1 year 1-3 years 3-10 years >10 years • • Thank you for your help on this research project! It is greatly appreciated!
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Excel Spreadsheet Set-up
# Gender Class Age Major G.P.A. History Attractiveness Date? Smoke Per Day Years
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Related Information• Causes for Smoking.
• Time of day (cigarettes/day)
• Duration of smoking
• Family History of smoking
• Student smoking percentage
• number of student smokers
• Given the nature and the student lifestyle, we expect 17% of our surveyed sample to be smokers.
• Proceed in our research by surveying 105 students on campus to operate as a sample for the standard population of the school.
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Background Information/Factors• Health risks (first and second hand)
• Cancer susceptibility
• based on time spent on campus in direct connection with smoking
• Comparing and contrasting smoker comfort versus non-smoker discomfort
• Non-smokers hidden annoyances toward smoking
• Smoker’s Nonsmokers awareness of nonsmokers smokers
• Determining possible reasons for smoking (stress, habit, social conformity?)
![Page 8: CSUSM Smoking and GPA Analysis Business Statistics 304 Walter Evans Farzana Mohsini Sheryl Lejano Ryan Thomas.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062322/56649c7d5503460f94932f41/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Mean, Variance, Frequency and Mode
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Mean for Age•Used midpoints•Total, Non-Smoking, & Smoking
Mean Total Students
Age # of Students
18.5 20
22.5 57
26.5 14
30.5 7
34.5 0
38.5 1
>40 5
Mean 23.80288462
Mean Non-Smoking
Age # of Students
18.5 15
22.5 52
26.5 11
30.5 6
34.5 0
38.5 0
>40 5
Mean 23.84269663
Mean Smoking
Age # of Students
18.5 5
22.5 5
26.5 3
30.5 1
34.5 0
38.5 1
>40 0
Mean 23.56666667
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Mean, Variance & Standard Deviation for GPA
•Used Midpoints•Total, Non-Smoking, & Smoking
Mean GPA Total
< 2.0 0
2.205 3
2.605 21
3.005 25
3.405 44
> 3.6 11
Mean 3.133317308
Variance
Std Dev
Mean GPA Smoking
< 2.0 0
2.205 1
2.605 5
3.005 4
3.405 5
> 3.6 0
Mean 2.951666667
Variance
Std Dev
Mean GPA Non-Smoking
< 2.0 0
2.205 2
2.605 16
3.005 21
3.405 39
> 3.6 11
Mean 3.163932584
Variance
Std Dev
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Mean Standard Deviation and Frequency
Mean = 23.80288462Standard Deviation = 5.026830087
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Mean Standard Deviation and Frequency
Mean = 23.84269663Standard Deviation = 4.966704771
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Mean Standard Deviation and Frequency
Mean = 23.56666667Standard Deviation = 5.548058433
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Mean Standard Deviation and Frequency
Mean = 3.133317308Standard Deviation = 0.37522654
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Mean Standard Deviation and Frequency
Mean = 3.163932584Standard Deviation = 0.365036947
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Mean Standard Deviation and Frequency
Mean = 2.951666667Standard Deviation = 0.396172161
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Mean Standard Deviation and Frequency
Mean = 4.769230769Standard Deviation = 3.491748515
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Mean Standard Deviation and Frequency
Mean = 3.4Standard Deviation = 3.10617959
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Mean Standard Deviation and Frequency
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Mean Standard Deviation and Frequency
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Mean Standard Deviation and Frequency
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Mean Standard Deviation and Frequency
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Mean Standard Deviation and Frequency
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Mean Standard Deviation and Frequency
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Mean Standard Deviation and Frequency
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Mean Standard Deviation and Frequency
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Mean Standard Deviation and Frequency
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Conditional ProbabilityConditional Probability Rules:
15 Smokers 90 Nonsmokers
11 Smoker Male
4 Smoker Female
Total Population: 43 Female 62 Males
Continuous VariablesProbability Rule 4: Addition Rule for Any Two Events, E1 and E2 P(E1 or E2)=P(E1)+P(E2)-P(E1 and E2).
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Mutually Exclusive Events
Probability Rule 5: Addition Rule for Mutually Exclusive Events
Two Mutually Exclusive Events E1 and E2
↑
E1 and E2
E1 E2
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Conditional ProbabilityTable 1.
Smoker Nonsmoker
Male 11 51 Total 105
Female 4 39
Table 2.
GPA>3.0 GPA<3.0
Smoking Male 7 4 Total 15 Smokers
Smoking Female 2 2
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Graphical Representation
GPA>3.0GPA<3.0
Smoking Male 7 4Total 15 Smokers
Smoking Female 2 2
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Graphical Representation
GPA>3.0GPA<3.0
Smoking Male 7 4Total 15 Smokers
Smoking Female 2 2
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Conditional Probability
Table 3.
GPA>3.0 GPA<3.0 Total 90 Nonsmokers
Nonsmoking Male 38 13 51 Males
Nonsmoking Female 30 9 39 Females
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Conditional Probability
Table 5.
Age > 20 Age ≤20 Total 105
Male 51 11 62 Males
Female 33 10 43 Females
Table 6.
Age > 20 Age ≤20 Total 15
Male Smokers 8 3 11 Males Smokers
Female Smokers 2 2 4 Females Smokers
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Conditional Probability
Event 1= Male
P(E1)=62/105 0.590476
Event 2= Female 0.409524
P(E2)=43/105
P(E1 or E2)=P(E1)+P(E2)-P(E1 and E2)
.590476+.409524-0=1.0 Probability of Either a Male or Female
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Conditional Probability
P(E1 and E2)
4/105=.0380 Probability of Female and Smoker
Event 1= Female
P(E1)=43/1050.40952
4
Event 2=Smoker
P(E2)=15/1050.14285
7
P(E1 or E2)=P(E1)+P(E2)-P(E1 and E2)
.409524+.142857-.0380= 0.514381 Probability of Either Female or smoker
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Conditional Probability
P(E1 and E2)
11/105=.10476 Probability of Male and Smoker
Event 1= Male
P(E1)=62/1050.5904
76
Event 2=Smoker
P(E2)=15/1050.1428
57
P(E1 or E2)=P(E1)+P(E2)-P(E1 and E2)
.590476+.142857-.10476= 0.342859 Probability of Either Male or Smoker
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Gender Vs. GPA (Male)
Event 1= Male
P(E1)=62/105 .5905 Probability
Event 2= GPA > 3.0
P(E2)=77/105 .73333 Probability
P(E1 and E2)
45/105=.42857 Probability of Male and GPA > 3.0
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Gender Vs. GPA (Female)
Event 1= Female
P(E1)=43/105 0.409524
Event 2= GPA > 3.0
P(E2)=77/105 .73333 Probability
P(E1 and E2)
32/105=.30476 Probability of Female and GPA > 3.0
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Smoking Vs. GPA (Male)
Event 1= Male Smoker
11/105=.10476 Probability of Male and Smoker
Event 2= GPA > 3.0
P(E2)=77/105 .73333 Probability
P(E1 and E2)
7/105=.066667 Probability of Male Smoker and GPA > 3.0
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Smoking Vs. GPA (Female)
Event 1= Female Smoker
4/105=.0380 Probability of Female and Smoker
Event 2= GPA > 3.0
P(E2)=77/105 .73333 Probability
P(E1 and E2)
2/105=.0190 Probability of Female Smoker and GPA > 3.0
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Binomial FormulaP(x)
n
x ! n xp qx n x
!
( )!=
-
-n= Random Sample Size
x= Number of successes
n-x= Number of Failures
p= probability of a success 0.14285714
q=1-p = Probability of a failure 0.85714286
n!=n(n-1)(n-2)(n-3)…1
0!=1 by definition 30 7.56E-06 Random 30 variable sample
FACTORIAL
P(x)= 30! (.14285714) power of 4(.85714286) power of 26
4!(30-4)! 4.16E-04 0.0181712
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Sampling Error
Total Non-smokers Smokers
Population Mean
3.13 3.16 2.95
Sample Mean 3.137667 3.10 3.08
Error 0.004349 -0.06 0.13
• Comparing GPA to non-smokers and smokers.
• Using a Cluster Sample technique and a random number generator
• Population size (105)• Sample sizes: Total (30), non-smokers (20), and smokers (5)
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Margin of Error• Margin of error in GPA compared to non-smokers and smokers.
• Population size (105)• Sample sizes : Total (30), non-smokers (20), and smokers (5)
Total Non-Smokers Smokers
Population Mean 3.13 3.16 2.95
Population S.D. 0.375 0.365 0.396
Sample Mean 3.13 3.10 3.08
Confidence Interval
95% 95% 95%
Margin of Error 0.13 0.15 0.35
Range 3.00 – 3.26 2.95 – 3.25 2.73 – 3.43
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Hypothesis testnon-smokers• Lower tail t-test• Null Hypothesis of a 2.00 GPA• If lower, then reject.• Level of significance (0.02)
Total Non-smokers
DataNull Hypothesis = 2Level of Significance 0.02Sample Size 30Sample Mean 3.13Sample Standard Deviation 0.417219
Intermediate CalculationsStandard Error of the Mean 0.076173419Degrees of Freedom 29t Test Statistic 14.83457105
Lower-Tail Test Lower Critical Value -2.150325074p-Value 1
Do not reject the null hypothesis
DataNull Hypothesis = 2Level of Significance 0.02Sample Size 20Sample Mean 3.1Sample Standard Deviation 0.357627
Intermediate CalculationsStandard Error of the Mean 0.079967828Degrees of Freedom 19t Test Statistic 13.75553174
Lower-Tail Test Lower Critical Value -2.204701336p-Value 1
Do not reject the null hypothesis
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Hypothesis testsmokers• Lower tail t-test• Null Hypothesis of a 2.00 GPA• If lower, then reject.• Level of significance (0.02)
Total Smokers
DataNull Hypothesis = 2Level of Significance 0.02Sample Size 30Sample Mean 3.13Sample Standard Deviation 0.417219
Intermediate CalculationsStandard Error of the Mean 0.076173419Degrees of Freedom 29t Test Statistic 14.83457105
Lower-Tail Test Lower Critical Value -2.150325074p-Value 1
Do not reject the null hypothesis
DataNull Hypothesis = 2Level of Significance 0.02Sample Size 5Sample Mean 3.08Sample Standard Deviation 0.334664
Intermediate CalculationsStandard Error of the Mean 0.149666291Degrees of Freedom 4t Test Statistic 7.21605376
Lower-Tail Test Lower Critical Value -2.998527873p-Value 0.999022157
Do not reject the null hypothesis
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Correlation GPA of non-smokers
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CorrelationGPA and smokers
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Correlation Regression
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Conclusion
• There is no correlation between smoker and non-smoker
• Based on our data , mean for smokers has a lower GPA compare to non-smokers
• Although our data revealed a low percentage of smokers within a 105 person population as a group based on this result we conclude the percentage of smoking amongst the campus population is relatively low.
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Suggestion
•Make smoker-free campus.
•Switch the smoking designated area
- General Lots - (Lots J, K, L, N, O, X, Y, and Z ).
•Promote non-smoking habit by encouraging students.