Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres · Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres ......

Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres

“Towns Mean Business”

18:00 – 19:30

Wednesday, 7th December 2016

Scottish Parliament, Committee Room 5

CPG Secretariat

Refreshments supported by:

Scottish Retail Consortium


“Ideal Retail Mix”

December 2016

Keith Hargest

Hargest Planning Ltd

Shopping as an activity…

‘ “I have heard,” said Defoe, still obviously shocked

by the practice, “that some ladies, and these too,

persons of good note, have taken their coaches

and spent a whole afternoon in Ludgate Street or

Covent Garden, only to divert themselves in going

from one mercers shop to another, to look upon

their fine silks and to rattle and banter the

shopkeepers...”’

From Daniel Defoe “The Complete English Tradesman” 1726 (quoted by Lewis

Mumford (The City in History)


December 2016

Long Term Factors

• Resale Price Maintenance Act 1964

• Increased accessibility and reduce cost of travel

(time and money)

• Internet based retail


December 2016

Cross Party Group Towns & Town Centres

December 2016

Numbers of Retail Units –

Small Centres


Medium Town Centres

Cross Party Group Towns & Town Centres

December 2016


Large Town Centres


December 2016

Changes to the Retail Mix

• Total numbers of retail goods and retail service

units is broadly constant

• Comparison goods shops declined in numbers

• Retail service units have grown significantly

• Vacancies have, in long term, remained broadly

constant


December 2016

Largest City & Town Centres

• Glasgow: decline retail goods units but growth in

services

• Edinburgh: from 1985 decline in retail goods units but

growth in sales area; growth in services

• Aberdeen from 2003: retail goods shops marginal

decline, growth in net sales; growth in service units;

vacancies constant

• Dundee: decline in retail goods floorspace (esp

comparison); total numbers of retail goods and service

units remained same since 2005


December 2016

Retail Expenditure Per Capita -

Constant and Actual Prices


December 2016

Growth of Internet


December 2016

Forecast Growth in Expenditure –

Total


December 2016

Implications

• Continuation of trends

• Uncertainties – internet growth; Brexit etc

• Continued loss of retail goods shops and

floorspace from small/medium town centres

• Continued growth of retail services – become

principal commercial activity in small- medium

town centres

• Larger centres: market concentration here, less

units, but more floorspace and turnover


December 2016

Retail Offer –

Small/Medium Town Centres

• P rice – difficult to compete

• Q uality – potential to be sensitive to local market

• R ange – difficult to compete

• S ervice – greatest potential for small/medium


December 2016



18:00 – 19:30



CPG Secretariat



Laura McKelvie, Policy and Public Affairs

Small Businesses Make Towns

GET IN TOUCH

T 0141 221 0775

E [email protected]

W fsb.org.uk/scot

Presentation Title. A presentation by Fiona Smith for [enter name/company]



18:00 – 19:30



CPG Secretariat



Retail, High Streets, and

Transformational Change

Presentation to the Cross Party Group on Town Centres

Ewan MacDonald-Russell – SRC Head of Policy & External Affairs

Scottish Retail ConsortiumRepresenting 255 brands including:

http://www.paperchase.co.uk/

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=UutL4pEmOjyzEM&tbnid=bHSrtfr2KOIU1M:&ved=0CAcQjRw&url=http://rivergatecentre.com/stores/&ei=-9wVVKagOemI7AbYuoHIDg&bvm=bv.75097201,d.ZGU&psig=AFQjCNHNL_bT1DY4uYIUysytPkomsy9aVw&ust=1410805388052502

http://www.hm.com/gb/

What’s Happening in Scottish Retail?

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

2013

2014

2015

2016

% c

han

ge y

ear-

on

year

SCOTLAND 3M ROLLING AVERAGE GROWTH

OVER FIVE YEARS

Total Sales LFL sales

• Sales:• Oct 1.6%• 3 Month: -1.0 %

• Vacancy Rate: • Oct 9.2 % • July 7.5 %

• October Footfall: • 3 Month: 0.3 %• 12 Month: -1.4 %

SRC-Springboard Footfall and Vacancies

Monitor

Source: SRC/Springboard

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

Feb

-13

Ap

r-13

Jun

-13

Au

g-1

3

Oct

-13

Dec-

13

Feb

-14

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Au

g-1

4

Oct

-14

Dec-

14

Feb

-15

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Au

g-1

5

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Feb

-16

Ap

r-16

Jun

-16

Au

g-1

6

Oct

-16

% c

han

ge y

ear-

on

-year

Footfall

Scotland UK

SRC-Springboard Footfall and Vacancies

Monitor

Source: SRC/Springboard

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

Jul-

11

Oct

-11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-

12

Oct

-12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Jul-

13

Oct

-13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct

-14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

Jul-

15

Oct

-15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-16

Jul-

16

Oct

-16

Vaca

ncy

Rate

(%

)

BRC-Springboard Vacancy Rates

Scotland UK

Shop prices have fallen for

43 months.

November SPI: -1.7 %

Driven by low commodity

prices and fierce

competition.

Underlying pressures could

cause challenges. -4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

Sep

-11

Mar-

12

Sep

-12

Mar-

13

Sep

-13

Mar-

14

Sep

-14

Mar-

15

Sep

-15

Mar-

16

Sep

-16

% c

han

ge y

ear-

on

-year

All Items Food Non-food

Shop Price index inflation (Y-o-y changes in prices)

Source: BRC-Nielsen Shop Prices Index

What’s happening to Shop Prices?

• The shift to shopping online continues apace

• Internet sales totalled £43bn in 2015.

• The challenge facing retailers is in investing to create a seamless multichannel proposition

• On average, people are taking fewer shopping trips but are prepared to travel further to make it a day out.

• The immediacy of online shopping and the rapid advancement in supply chain technology means products are easily available at short notice.

• That has led to a decreasing tendency among shoppers to buy well in advance or to plan for new season or events

Online non-food sales

now around 22%, 12 month average

growth is 10.8%. Online food sales has

proved more challenging,

so overall online

penetration is around

15%.

Online shopping is

increasingly being done

through mobile phones,

rather than desktop.

More than 50% of hits

on retailers’ websites are

from mobile phones.

How are people shopping?

What effect is public policy having?

• Customers spending is crucial for retailers: Therefore costs to customers are a priority.

• Government Policy is increasing the cost of people and property:

• Business Rates and the Large Business Supplement

• Apprenticeship Levy• Costs of Employment

• Future Issues• Brexit• Productivity and Innovation

Final Thoughts

• Retail Industry is going through enormous change• Trading conditions are very competitive• Economic challenges ahead in 2017• High Streets will change significantly as a consequence• Public policy needs to evolve in response to these pressures



18:00 – 19:30



CPG Secretariat



Alexander Nicoll Corporate Responsibility Director Intu Properties Plc

Shopping Centres: Working Together with Communities and Town Centres



18:00 – 19:30



CPG Secretariat



Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres · Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres ......

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