Simon Bedford, Future of Town Centres

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What’s happening on the High Street?

27 November 2013



Place North West – Future of town centres Content

• The future for retail

• A more ‘agile’ high street

• Going a step further

• Conclusions



The future for retail

Total store numbers

will fall by 22%

between now and

2018 – from

280,000 to 220,000

A further 164 major

or medium sized

businesses will go

into administration

59% of town centres

will be ‘sustainable’

(but what about the

other 41%?)

Online retail sales

will climb from

12.7% to 21.5% by

2018

There will be a

further 316,000 job

losses nationally



0

100

200

300

400

Days

Technology adoption: number of days to reach 1MM units sold1

~300 ~180 ~75 ~30

2010 2002 2002 2007 2007

~360

2011

~10

+

+

+

Lower prices

Increased mobility

Enhanced usability

Evolved

connectivity

Technology adoption drivers

Evolution of retail & technology

~45

2007

iPhone 5 sold 2 million units within the first 24 hours of pre-orders in

Sept 2012

2013

6 hours



Changing patterns of activity

Net store openings and closures by location

(% net change)



Changing patterns of activity

Sector growth 2010 - 2015

Source: Verdict



Where is the growth going to come from?

Net store openings and closures by type

(% net change)



Adapting to demand

Consumers’ attitudes to high-street management In your view, who should decide which shops and services your local ‘high street’ includes?



A more ‘agile’ high street

• Different use of space – planning implications?

• More flexible leases

• Rewriting business rates + changing the tax system

• New sources of funding

• Engaging local trade

• New approaches to car parking

• The role of local authorities



Greater flexibility through planning

Past Present (30 May 2013) Future?

Permitted change

from A2, A3, A4, A5

to A1

Flexible permitted change from A1,

A2, A3, A4, A5, B1, D1, D2 to A1,

A2, A3, B1 for up to two years

(Maximum of 150 sq m)

Change from A1, A2 to

C3 residential

(maximum of 150 sq m)

No permitted change

from A1

Change from A1 to

banks and building

societies

Betting shops and

payday loan shops

moved from A2 to sui

generis

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=XeIb2tEH-kRseM&tbnid=3sJIKCc_bALc1M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.planningresource.co.uk/article/1208337/retail-to-homes-plan-threat-shops-use&ei=VNeLUsDcMYHt0gXF_IGwDA&bvm=bv.56643336,d.d2k&psig=AFQjCNEFxAllA8Vw6w1A1KIeYhUkMqoLPA&ust=1384982695055024

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=wpCXSMj3PZ6hsM&tbnid=OIc2rRJ-jIKR1M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.192.com/atoz/business/manchester-m1/banks-and-financial-institutions/barclays-bank-plc/e245de7bd198dd592ad5c8bba157178421c63bc4/ml/&ei=r9eLUuDZH-Om0QWK5IEI&bvm=bv.56643336,d.d2k&psig=AFQjCNFbshmmXHWHk9PJ9SIDnLeyS2l16w&ust=1384982817537170

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=xgZrkogAo7WHIM&tbnid=Wiy25m6p7UtuKM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.192.com/atoz/business/manchester-m2/banks-and-financial-institutions/virgin-money/be21f10f15013c3dc6fa877d2c8b28429a2e2139/ml/&ei=SdiLUvylG6PB0QXnsoHgCg&bvm=bv.56643336,d.d2k&psig=AFQjCNGbzdmOmA_JzVYPpnS9y1b4fkfukw&ust=1384982973365058



More flexible formats

• ‘Click & Collect’ will become more popular

• Need for new layouts and configuration of space

• Temporary facilities + pop up shops



Going a step further Town Centre Investment Zones



Going a step further

Funding streams

established to turn

shops into houses

Impact of public

sector investment

(health, education

etc.)

Encouragement for

entrepreneurs



Conclusions

This is not evolution – it is more of a revolution:

• Some towns will not survive – and need to change course

• Rules and regulations need to allow change to occur – not

stand in its way

• There is room for everybody – but maybe the best new

ideas will come from entrepreneurial businesses

• Local authorities will have to lead the way – taking ‘control’

of their town centres



What’s happening on the High Street?

Simon Bedford

Partner

Deloitte Real Estate

2 Hardman Street

Manchester

M60 2AT

Tel/Direct: +44 (0)161 455 6484

Mobile +44(0)7717 894598

[email protected]

www.deloitterealestate.co.uk



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Simon Bedford, Future of Town Centres

Real Estate

Transcript of Simon Bedford, Future of Town Centres