CROP -TOTAL CLIMATE RISK COMPONENT

• From end to end- Land preparation, crop sowing – TO

Harvest and post harvest operations• Consider both

– Direct impact- by moisture stress, water logging and on Crop physiology

– Indirect impact – by triggering rapid increase of pests, diseases and vector populations that are already endemic.

• In any particular year a partiuclar combination of such ‘adverse events’ would occur

• It is possible to construct simple models for such climate impact by using – Existing literature– Expert knowledge of farmers, field researchers

Crop model Validation with observed yield

Optimal sowing window• Frequently asked question• No additional cost, but very high benefit for correct

choice but, high penalty for wrong choice• Need

– long term daily rainfall, – crop simulation model, – soil data, – crop management data

• Simple model on pest and diseases would be desirable (Indirect impact of climate)

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Wee

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Rain

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Sorghum

Pigeonpea upto February

Castor upto March

Minor Millets ( I, II)

Minor Millets (III, IV, V) upto January

Horsegram upto January

Sesamum / Horsegram / Cotton / Chillies / Cowpea / PearlMillet

Peanut

Horsegram

Cow pea / Horsegram / Greengram / Castor / Pigeonpea

Current Cropping System

TraditionalCropping System

Sorghum / Safflower / Niger / Castor / Pigeonpea / Peanut / Field bean

APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Recent shift in cropping patterns- Lack of experience of optimal sowing windows

Low chance of crop failure? – sow late

Best chances of High yields? – sow late

PUNTGRO- Year wise yield at different sowing dates

PUNTGRO- Year wise yield at different sowing dates

High chance of Moisture stress at Pod filling (60-85 days after sowing)

Low chance of Moisture stress at Pod filling (60-85 days after sowing)

Chance of leaf miner incidence v/s sowing date

Chance of Late leaf spot v/s sowing date

DO WE ALWAYS NEED CROP MODELS? CAN WE USE CLIMATOLOGY?

• Climatology of the location- can it be used for similar analysis?

• Use of climate variability information for ‘Package of practices– Karnataka, May to July 15th not further – Experience and crop simulation shows this to be “poor advice”– Generated on the basis of field experiments in Bangalore region-

with ‘bimodal rainfall pattern’

• Sowing late not followed because it has to be adopted in a large scale. Isolated cases will have pest and pathogen from the earlier crops

Simple model for Rainfed Groundnut At Anantpur- an example

Climate – Direct impact

Climate- indirect impact

TOTAL CLIMATE RISK FOR GROUNDNUT CROP

Validation of Model Prediction and Field data