October 1 Issue 5

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CROP CONDITIONS BULLETIN: September 2018

National Synthesis (Maize, Beans and Wheat)

SUMMARY Favourable maize yields were realized for the long rains in most parts of the Country. Extremely wet conditions resulted in reduction in yields in most parts of the country resulting in an increase in the prices of beans in major markets compared to a normal period. Wheat productionwas favorable in most of the growing areas although heavy rains resulted in late planting and a reduction in planted acreage.Land preparation for the short rains is ongoing while in some areas, the early planted crop in western region is at weeding stage. Delayed onset of the short rains affected planting especially in the Western Region.Wholesale prices of maize and wheat continued to decline due to the above average production in most parts of the country.

Map showing regional crop conditions information in Kenya as at 23rd.

September

2018 for maize, wheat and beans. The crop Monitor map is based on a combination

of several variable including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field

reports, national, and regional experts. Crops with conditions that are other than

favorable are labeled on the map with their driver.

OUTLOOK (Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD)/State Department of

Crops Development (SDCD)

Despite the delayed onset in the short season rains, the conditions are expected to improve. According to KMD, Good crop performance is expected over most parts of the country, especially the western and central regions, as a result of the forecasted good rainfall performance. In most parts of the country average to above average rainfall is expected except in the north west region where a slight reduction from the average has been forecasted.

Contents

National Synthesis………………1

Assessment by Region…………2

Assessment by Crop…………….4

Climate outlook…………………..6

Market information……………..7

Definitions ……………………….10

Partnerships……………….…….10

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Assessment by Region In central region, the overall maize performance was very good following the enhanced rainfall that was recorded throughout the county, with minimal losses experienced from the fall army worm (FAW) infestation. In Nyandarua and Nyeri counties, wheat is in favourable condition. Beans performance was poor in the region due to wet conditions especially in the highlands which resulted in rotting of the crop. Land preparation for the short rains is in progress with the season expected to commence in the second week of October. Harvesting of maize is complete in most areas, except for Kirinyaga, Nyeri and Nyandarua where the process is still ongoing with over 70% of maize harvested and expected to complete in October. Outlook: Following the good performance of the long rains and the current prevailing dry conditions coupled with the effective control of the FAW, favorable maize yields were realized. Above normal wheat yields were realized in Nyeri, Nyandarua and Kirinyaga. However, the persistent wet and moist conditions during the season affected performance of beans which resulted in average yields in the lower drier areas. In Coast Region, maize production was favourable in most areas in the region except for Kwale and Tana River, where enhanced rainfall resulted in flooding and crop loss. Harvesting is complete and preparations are ongoing for the short rains. Outlook: Favourable maize yields were experienced in the region during the long rains. Beans have been harvested in the region but low production was observed due to heavy rains resulting in flooding in some parts in several counties during the season. The region is generally out of season with exception of Lamu where maize is at various stages of growth. In North Rift, harvesting is ongoing with favourable maize yields expected in the region. Over 50% of maize has been harvested in most areas, except for Uasin Gishu and Trans-Nzoia where only 5-10% of the area has been harvested since the crop is between maturity and harvesting stages. Wet conditions resulted in poor beans yields but higher acreage planted in Elgeyo Marakwet and Trans Nzoia for the short rains is expected to compensate for the poor performance in during the long rains. Short rains planting is already underway with the beans crop ranging between planting to early vegetative stages. In Nandi, Samburu, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu and West Pokot, 15-20% of expected area under beans production has been planted. Conditions are favourable for wheat production in the region and the crop is between maturity and harvesting stages. However, heavy rains resulted in low acreage planted in Trans Nzoia and Uasin Gishu. In Baringo, wheat has been harvested. Outlook: Favourable yields were realized for maize during the long rains. However, wet conditions resulted in low bean yields during the long rains season but conditions are favourable for beans production during the short rains season if favourable conditions continue being experienced. In Nandi, prevailing poor conditions are expected to result in approximately 60% reduction in bean yields during the long rains. Favourable conditions for wheat production are expected to result in normal yields if prevailing rainfall conditions continue being experienced in the region. In South Rift region, conditions were favorable for maize and wheat production during the long rains and harvesting is ongoing. Beans production is almost complete but wet conditions during the long rains resulted in approximately 30% reduction in yields. Outlook: Normal maize yields were realized in the region, however in Kericho, a reduction of yields by approximately 10% is expected due to wet conditions that resulted in leaching of soil nutrients. Normal wheat yields are expected in Nakuru but a reduction in yields is expected in Narok due to enhanced rainfall during the growing period.

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In Lower Nyanza region, maize conditions were under watch due to late onset of the short rains except in Migori where conditions are favourable. Land preparation and planting for the short rains is ongoing. In Homa bay, crops are showing water stress. Outlook: Normal maize yields were realized in the region during the long rains, however, it is hoped that despite the late onset of the short rains, the conditions will stabilize resulting in normal yields. In all counties, average to below average beans production was achieved during the long rains due to the heavy rains that did not favor crop development during the season. However in the short rains the conditions are expected to improve resulting in normal beans yields. In Upper Nyanza region, maize conditions were favorable. Planting of maize and beans for the short rains has commenced with approximately 60% completed with the early planted crop already in reproductive stage. Planting is expected to complete in the first week of October, with weeding already ongoing for the early planted crop. Outlook: Normal maize and beans yields are expected during the short rains season if favourable conditions continue. In Western region, conditions were favourable for maize production in the long rains and the trend is expected to continue during the short rains season. Land preparation for the short rains is completed in most areas, and planting is also complete in 75% of the area. First weeding is ongoing for the early planted maize and beans crops are already. Outlook: During the long rains season in Busia, Kakamega and Bungoma normal maize yields were realized, while in Vihiga, the yields were average. However, the heavy rains during the long rains season contributed to low beans production due to rotting and other postharvest losses. Favourable conditions during the short rains season are expected to result in normal maize and beans yields. In Eastern region, favourable maize and beans yields were realized during the long rains season. Harvesting for the long rains is complete in the region except for a few farms in Buuri where wheat has not been harvested. Land preparation is ongoing for the short rains season. The lower Eastern region is out of season since harvesting of maize and beans from the long rains season is complete. Outlook: Favorable maize and beans yields were realized in the Lower Eastern region. In the Upper Eastern region, normal to high yields were realized. Favourable wheat yields were realized in the region.

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Assessment by Crop This section provides crop specific assessments for the three major crops that were reported; namely maize, bean and wheat. Most parts of the country are transitioning from the long rains season into the short rains season. In a few areas harvesting of the long rains maize crop is ongoing and is expected to complete in October. Land preparation for the short rains is ongoing. Average to above average maize yields were realized in the long rains.

During the long rains’ beans production was poor in most parts of the country. Land preparation for the short rains season and weeding of the early planted crop is ongoing. In Siaya and Homa Bay, planting was affected by delayed onset of the rains.

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5 | P a g e State Department of Crops Development www.kilimo.go.ke

75% of the planted area has been harvested with normal to above normal fields realized. Heavy rains resulted in delayed planting and a reduction in acreage under wheat production.

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Climate outlook Figure 1: October Forecast (Source: KMD)

Figure 2: Expected onset of rains (Source: KMD)

National Forecast

September 2018

According to the Kenya

Meteorological Services,

most parts of the country are likely to experience near-average to above-average rainfall during the month of October. The Northwestern is, however, likely to experience near-average rainfall with a slight tendency to below-average (slightly depressed rainfall) as seen in Figure 1.

Expected Onset of Rainfall Nyanza and Western Counties are expected to continue experiencing rainfall during the first week of October spreading from the month of September. In the North western and central parts of the country rain is expected during the third to fourth week of October; Central and Nairobi Counties are expected to experience their onsets in the second to third week of October; and the fourth week in South Eastern parts.

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Market information The section provides the early morning wholesale monthly average prices of Maize, beans and wheat in major markets across the country.

1. Maize Maize prices continue to drop from Ksh. 2160 in August to Ksh. 2070 in September. Lowest prices for maize were recorded in Kitale at Ksh. 1550 while the highest price of Ksh. 2700 was reported in Isiolo. Overall a reduction in prices from September was observed in the markets.

Green maize was selling at an average price of Ksh 2094 registering a reduction from the average price of Ksh. 2230 in August. The highest prices were recorded in Mombasa at Ksh. 4000 while the prices were lowest in Kitale at Ksh. 10000.

2. Beans In September beans were selling at an average price Ksh. 5917 for the Canadian Wonder variety, Ksh. 6289 for Mwitemania beans and Ksh5278 for the Rosecoco variety per 90Kgs bag. This represented

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an increase in prices for for the Canadian and Mwitemania varieties but a slight reduction in the Rosecoco variety when compared with prices in September.

Nairobi recorded the highest prices for the Canadian Wonder Variety at Ksh. 7200 with the lowest prices being observed in Kitale at Ksh. 4000.

Eldoret recorded the highest prices for the Rosecoco Variety at Ksh. 7650 with the lowest prices being observed in Kitale at Ksh. 4000.

Eldoret recorded the highest prices for the Mwitemania variety at Ksh. 7650 while the lowest prices were observed in Nakuru at Ksh. 3600.

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3. Wheat Wheat was selling at an average price of Ksh. 3840 which represented an increase from August prices which were averaging Ksh. 3670. Isiolo and Malinidi recorded the highest average prices at Ksh. 4500 and the lowest prices were experienced in Meru at Ksh. 3100.Prices were unavailable from most markets.

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Definitions Drivers: These represent the key climatic drivers that are having an impact on crop condition status. They result in production impacts and can act as either positive or negative drivers of crop conditions. Wet: Higher than average wetness that results in destruction ie due to water logging and leaching of nutrients Extreme Events: This is a catch-all for all other climate risks (i.e. frost, hailstorms, mudslides etc.) Late rains: Late start of the season. Flood: Area is flooded Early Rains Cessation: Rains end earlier than expected in the season Pests: Destructive insects, birds or animals. Diseases: Destructive plant diseases. Dry: Drier than average Socio-economic: Social or economic factors that impact crop conditions (i.e. policy changes, agricultural subsidies, government intervention, etc.) Conflict: Armed conflict or civil unrest that is preventing the planting, or harvesting of the fields by the farmers. Wildlife Damage: Crop destruction by wildlife

Partnerships

Crop Conditions: Exceptional: Conditions are much better than average* at time of reporting. This label is only used during the grain-filling through harvest stages. Favourable: Conditions range from slightly lower to slightly better than average* at reporting time. Watch: Conditions are not far from average* but there is a potential risk to final production. The crop can still recover to average or near average conditions if the ground situation improves. This label is only used during the planting-early vegetative and the vegetative-reproductive stages. Poor: Crop conditions are well below average. Crop yields are likely to be 10-25% below average. This is used when crops are stunted and are not likely to recover, and impact on production is likely. Failure: Crop conditions are extremely poor. Crop yields are likely to be 25% or more below average. Out of Season: Crops are not currently planted or in development during this time. No Data: No reliable source of data is available at this time. ”Average” refers to the average conditions over the past 5 years.