Critical Transitions
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Transcript of Critical Transitions
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Critical TransitionsMidterm Report
Keith Heyde
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Diks et al. 2012
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What Are Critical Transitions?
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Early Warning Signs
1) Critical Slowing2) Asymmetry of Fluctuation3) Flickering (with stochastic magnitude)
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Predicting Critical Transitions: Case Study Lake Eutrophication
Wang et al. 2012
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Critical Slowing
Slow Perturbation RecoveryIncreased autocorrelationIncreased Variance
- The focus of my analysis thus far has been identifying critical slowing in certain metrics
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Previous Successful (Published) Examples
Stock Market (mixed results)Climate – Flickering and critical slowing at Younger Dryas Cold PeriodEcosystems- Vegetation and DesertificationAgri/Aquaculture- Fishing stocksNeurological- Epilepsy/ Depression
Leemput et al. 2013
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Methods Pursued Find Sample Data
Understand potential
chaotic drop
If smooth add noise
(matlab)
Examine autocorrelatio
n and skewness
If ‘stochastic’ leave as is
Examine autocorrelatio
n and skewness
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Examples Pursued Splitting States Nationalization/Privatization of Industry
- Mining in Chile- Oil Reserves in Latin America (country
by country) Venture capital Investment patterns by industry
In all cases data was taken from The Economist (in turn taken from primary sources)
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Moving forward:
Predicting Antibiotic Resistance1) Normal (mutation) Death Response2) Altruistic Death Response
Yurtsev et al.
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Moving Forward Cont..
• Parameters: public good production (B2)
• Multiple equilibria (including zero)
• Sample data processing within MATLAB (autocorrelation and variance analysis)
Tanouchi et al. 2012
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Have a Great Day!
And thanks to Prof. Ross for all the help!