Critical Thinking

Do forecasts come true?

Amarillo College Library

The AC Library database Academic Search Complete contains an interesting periodical called The Futurist.

Image used with permission by Jeff CornishBusiness Manager, World Future Society

Writers for this periodical examine trends of all kinds and evaluate other forecasters’ ideas about what might happen and how it might change society or the family or the economy.

Assignment

This assignment includes direct links to articles from The Futurist from about twenty years ago.

Assignment

You will choose an article and find out if the forecast came true.

Stepsprintable version

1. Choose an article on the last page. 2. Click the article title to open.

The article is from the database. If you are off-campus you may be asked to enter your AC user name and password. It is the same one you use for your AC Online class and WebAdvisor.

3. The article summary page displays first. Click the link to PDF full text to open the whole article.

Steps

4. Read the whole article. 5. Find another article about the same topic

published in the last two years. Use one of the BEST BET library databases at this site: AC Library Multi-subject databases.

Hint: contact the Library if you need help -371-5468 or library-help@actx.edu

Steps

6. After reading the old and new articles, do the following:a. Write the title of the older article you chose.b. Write a sentence summarizing one prediction

from the 1991-1993 article. (Note: Some of the articles make several predictions. Choose only one.)

Steps

c. List the title of the recent article you found. Include the date it was published and the database you used. (Remember – it has to be from one of the AC Library databases, and the new article must have been published in the last two years.)

d. Paraphrase in your own words what the article you found says about the forecast/prediction from the twenty year old article.

Steps

e. Grade the accuracy of the first article on a scale of 1 (low accuracy) to 5 (excellent accuracy).

f. Write two or three sentences about your observations, whatever they may be.

g. Turn in or submit electronically to your instructor as directed.

1990’s articles Shopping in the information ageFuturist , Nov/Dec 1992, Vol 26 Issue 6, 5 pages

Patient, heal thyselfFuturist, Jan/Feb 1992 Vol 26, Issue 1 , 5 pages

Future workFuturist, May/June 1991 Vol 25, Issue 3, 11pages

Mind-reading computer. Futurist , May/June 1992 Vol 26, Issue 3, 1/2 page

The moon makes a comebackFuturist , Nov/Dec 1991 Vol 25 Issue 6, 1 page

Transformation of dentistryFuturist, May/June 1992 Vol 26, Issue 3, 1/2 page

Adding vision to telecommutingFuturist , May/June 1992 Vol 26, Issue 3, 3 pages