Crisis Management and Crisis Management and the Mediathe MediaPhilip M. TaylorPhilip M. Taylor

Institute of Communications Institute of Communications StudiesStudies

University of LeedsUniversity of Leeds

TERRORISM

The 21st CENTURY ENVIRONMENT?

Global Warming +/ Ecological disaster +

Creeping Deserts =

POPULATION GROWTH +RESOURCE SCARCITY =

War over Food, Water, Fish

Virtual States

WEAPONS OFMASS DESTRUCTION

CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS:

More GNP = More Defense Spending

GLOBAL ECONOMICGLOBAL ECONOMICINTERDEPENDENCEINTERDEPENDENCEASYMMETRIC

WARFARE

DISEASE(AIDS PANDEMIC

MALARIA, EBOLA)

ETHNO-Religious

PAN-NATRIONALISM

Changing ALLIANCES: IMPACT OF THE EURO

ECO-ASIA

INFORMATIONWARFARE

Sub-National Groups: Russian Mafia,Russian Mafia, FARC,

IMPACT OFTECHNOLOGY

UNCERTAINFUTURE

UNCERTAINFUTURE

‘‘Information Operations’: the Information Operations’: the new ‘magic bullet’?new ‘magic bullet’?

• IO doctrine still emerging (US driven)

• Embraces notion of a global information ‘space’ in which governments take ‘command and control’ of the information environment, wherever possible

• In cyberspace, who (and where) is the enemy?

• Ramifications for democracy?

International Information – the new International Information – the new US definitionUS definition

International Information – the new International Information – the new US definitionUS definition

““The conscious use of available means to The conscious use of available means to inform foreign audiences regarding U.S. inform foreign audiences regarding U.S. policies and activities for the purpose of policies and activities for the purpose of convincing those audiences of the convincing those audiences of the legitimacy of the U.S. government legitimacy of the U.S. government positionposition.”.”

International InformationInternational InformationInternational InformationInternational Information

Goal: To achieve U.S. national objectives Goal: To achieve U.S. national objectives without resorting to force, or act as a force without resorting to force, or act as a force multiplier in the event force is requiredmultiplier in the event force is required

Three ToolsThree Tools Public AffairsPublic Affairs Public DiplomacyPublic Diplomacy Psychological OperationsPsychological Operations

Public AffairsPublic AffairsPublic AffairsPublic Affairs

““Those public information and community Those public information and community relations activities directed toward the relations activities directed toward the domestic general public by various elements domestic general public by various elements of the USG, as well as those activities of the USG, as well as those activities directed to foreign publics, including the directed to foreign publics, including the media, by official U.S. spokesmen abroad.”media, by official U.S. spokesmen abroad.”

Public AffairsPublic AffairsPublic AffairsPublic Affairs

Provides information to intermediaries, i.e. Provides information to intermediaries, i.e. reporters for international mediareporters for international media

State Department is lead agencyState Department is lead agency Intent is to inform, not necessarily persuadeIntent is to inform, not necessarily persuade Audience (reporters) is self selectingAudience (reporters) is self selecting Often more “pull” than “push”Often more “pull” than “push” Some “spin,” but not viewed by either side Some “spin,” but not viewed by either side

as controlled/controllableas controlled/controllable

Public DiplomacyPublic DiplomacyPublic DiplomacyPublic Diplomacy

““Governmental activities intended to inform, Governmental activities intended to inform, influence and understand foreign publics. influence and understand foreign publics. As a complement to traditional diplomacy, As a complement to traditional diplomacy, public diplomacy is the communication of public diplomacy is the communication of U.S. interests and values directly to foreign U.S. interests and values directly to foreign publics, including strategically placed publics, including strategically placed individuals and institutions.”individuals and institutions.”

Public DiplomacyPublic DiplomacyPublic DiplomacyPublic Diplomacy

Traditionally targeted elites, but paradigm Traditionally targeted elites, but paradigm has shiftedhas shifted

USIA/USIS is lead agencyUSIA/USIS is lead agency More “push” than “pull”More “push” than “pull”

– WORLDNET TVWORLDNET TV– VOA, RFE/RL, Radio/TV MartiVOA, RFE/RL, Radio/TV Marti– Foreign Press Centers, Washington FileForeign Press Centers, Washington File

Seen by audience as “controlled”Seen by audience as “controlled”

Psychological OperationsPsychological OperationsPsychological OperationsPsychological Operations

““Activities designed to convey selected Activities designed to convey selected information and indicators to foreign information and indicators to foreign audiences to influence the behavior of audiences to influence the behavior of foreign governments, organizations, groups foreign governments, organizations, groups and individuals. The purpose of and individuals. The purpose of psychological operations is to induce or psychological operations is to induce or reinforce foreign attitudes and behavior reinforce foreign attitudes and behavior favorable to the overall national security favorable to the overall national security interests of the United States.”interests of the United States.”

Psychological OperationsPsychological OperationsPsychological OperationsPsychological Operations May target friendly, neutral and/or hostile May target friendly, neutral and/or hostile

audiencesaudiences DoD is lead agency DoD is lead agency Coordinated with State, USIA, and CIACoordinated with State, USIA, and CIA May be undertaken in support of, or May be undertaken in support of, or

independent from other military operationsindependent from other military operations All “push,” no “pull;” media tailored to All “push,” no “pull;” media tailored to

target audiencetarget audience

Information AgeInformation AgeInformation AgeInformation Age

““The current military-technical revolution, as The current military-technical revolution, as in the case of some earlier periods of major in the case of some earlier periods of major change in military affairs, is part of a change in military affairs, is part of a broader revolution with political, economic broader revolution with political, economic and social dimensions. It is being shaped and social dimensions. It is being shaped by profound changes in technology, by profound changes in technology, perhaps most notably in the area of perhaps most notably in the area of information technology....” information technology....” William J. William J. Perry, 10/06/94Perry, 10/06/94

How did we get here?: Main Trends for How did we get here?: Main Trends for Military-Media Crisis Management in the Military-Media Crisis Management in the

Post Cold War EraPost Cold War Era

• From inter-state to intra-state conflict• From military war-fighting to peacekeeping,

peace building and peace support• From military-military communications to

military-civilian communications• Decline of specialised foreign and defence

correspondents• Increased emphasis on ‘real-time’ reporting• From Information Warfare to Information

Operations (‘electronic Pearl Harbour’)

From inter to intra state From inter to intra state conflictconflict

• Gulf War (1991) and Kosovo (1999) are the exceptions since the end of a bi-polar world

• Somalia, Haiti, Rwanda, Bosnia, East Timor, Sierra Leone, Chechnya etc = the norm

• At least from the media (therefore government?) point of view

• Sudan? ‘CNN ‘effect’?

The changing role of the militaryThe changing role of the military

• More UN peacekeeping missions now than ever before

• Variety of ‘peacekeeping’ operations• Changing world accompanied by RMA• RMA places information and communications at

centre of C2W and C4I• Command, Control, Communications,

Computers, Intelligence and…..?• CNN!

Heavily armed social workers?Heavily armed social workers?

• Operations other than war involve civilians in distraught and complex situations (hence attention to public diplomacy)

• Attention to ‘information support’ in the ‘military’ operation is essential

• Increased role of Psychological Operations in ‘theatre’

• Increased role of Public Affairs/Public Information in global media environment

Role of the International MediaRole of the International Media

• Increasingly competitive, deregulated ‘infotainment’ market

• Human Interest stories and the decline of the specialist/rise of the freelancer

• Easier to ‘manipulate’ within certain ground rules (Gulf War and Kosovo)

• More difficult to control access to communications technologies

Back to Information OperationsBack to Information Operations

• Knowledge explosion

• Computer power up six orders of magnitude by 2025

• Global interconnectivity The developed world is moving to an information based economy---BUT

What about the Less Developed What about the Less Developed World?World?

• 5.7 billion current population will double in our lifetime– 4.5 billion live in poor countries (average per

capita GNP about $1K)– 35% of population under age 15

• Population in LDCs up 143% by 2025– Population under age 15 may exceed 50% in

some countries

Increasing UrbanizationIncreasing UrbanizationIncreasing UrbanizationIncreasing Urbanization

Half of world population now is urban; Half of world population now is urban; two thirds by 2025two thirds by 2025

27 mega-cities (10M+) by 2015, 24 in less 27 mega-cities (10M+) by 2015, 24 in less developed worlddeveloped world– Of 325 cities of 1M+ today, 213 are in less Of 325 cities of 1M+ today, 213 are in less

developed worlddeveloped world By 2025, Latin America 85%, Africa 58% By 2025, Latin America 85%, Africa 58%

and Asia 53% urbanand Asia 53% urban

Increasing instability, especially in Increasing instability, especially in the Developing Worldthe Developing World

Increasing instability, especially in Increasing instability, especially in the Developing Worldthe Developing World

Traditional national sovereignties erodingTraditional national sovereignties eroding Religious, tribal and ethnic conflict Religious, tribal and ethnic conflict

spreadingspreading Guerrilla, paramilitary and criminal groups Guerrilla, paramilitary and criminal groups

proliferatingproliferating Numbers of displaced persons growingNumbers of displaced persons growing

More Complex Humanitarian Crises Are More Complex Humanitarian Crises Are Almost Certain Almost Certain

Traditional infrastructures (administrative, Traditional infrastructures (administrative, health & sanitation, water, power, etc.) will health & sanitation, water, power, etc.) will continue to erode in third worldcontinue to erode in third world

The global information infrastructure will The global information infrastructure will continue to expand and become more robustcontinue to expand and become more robust

Urban centers in the second and third world Urban centers in the second and third world will function as communication nodeswill function as communication nodes

So What?

Information AgeInformation AgeInformation AgeInformation Age

The ability of any central authority to The ability of any central authority to control information flow will diminishcontrol information flow will diminish

First world policy makers will be First world policy makers will be increasingly unable to ignore LDC events increasingly unable to ignore LDC events

Global telecommunications will provide Global telecommunications will provide scenes that result in policy shifts and turn scenes that result in policy shifts and turn military operations into improvisational military operations into improvisational theatertheater

How do you manage those How do you manage those crises?crises?

• An integrated information policy (hence IO)• Long-term communication of (‘soft’) power• Short-term but planned PSYOP and PA/PI

activity close to the centre of decision-making

• Professionalised information activity AND crisis management scenarios

• Keep within the democratic tradition: a strength and a weakness