Crime in the San Diego Region - San Diego Association of ... · Healthy Housing Market Vacancy Rate...
Transcript of Crime in the San Diego Region - San Diego Association of ... · Healthy Housing Market Vacancy Rate...
Public Safety Committee Item 4 | September 21, 2018 1
Crime in the San Diego Region2018 Mid-Year Crime Statistics
September 2018
What Information is Presented?
• Annualized crime rates per 1,000 population and mid-year numbers of reported crimes
• Region and jurisdictions
• FBI Index or Part I crimes
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Public Safety Committee Item 4 | September 21, 2018 2
Not all Crime Reported toLaw Enforcement
• 23% rapes
• 54% robberies
• 59% aggravated assaults
• 30% larceny thefts
• 50% residential burglaries
• 80% motor vehicle thefts
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2018 Annualized Violent Crime Rate Up Slightly in 2018
3.32
3.27
3.26
3.26
3.34
3.40
3.69
3.41
3.75
4.08
4.09
0
2
4
6
8
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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Regional Violent Crime Rate Per 1,000
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One-Year Increases at Mid-Year in Two of the Four Categories
-5%
13%
-7%
3%
1%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
5
Percent Change in Number of Crimes
Overall Violent
Homicide
Rape AggAssault
Robbery
How Did the San Diego Region Compare to Other Jurisdictions for Mid-Year Violent Crime Changes?
Homicide Rape Robbery Agg Assault
San Diego Region -5% 13% -7% 3%
Los Angeles -5% -14% -3% -2%
Long Beach 0% 11% -15% 27%
San Francisco -38% 0% -4% 7%
Oakland 0% -3% -12% 1%
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Public Safety Committee Item 4 | September 21, 2018 4
2018 Annualized PropertyCrime Rate Down From 2017
16.72
17.17
19.20
18.64
18.99
21.91
21.32
19.86
22.47
22.98
27.96
0
10
20
30
40
50
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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Regional Property Crime Rate Per 1,000
One-Year Decreases at Mid-Year in Two of the Three Categories
-13%
-3%
<1%
-3%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
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Percent Change in Number of Crimes
Overall Property Burglary
Larceny
MV Theft
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Petty Theft Down, Grand Theft Up
Over $400
+13%
$400 & under
-8%
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Variation in One-Year Changes Across All Types of Larceny
-12%
4%5%
4%
-7%
-5%
9%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
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Pickpocket(105)
Shoplift(2,450)
From MV(7,962)
MV Parts(697)
Bikes(1,246)
Buildings(4,455)
Other(2,000)
Percent Change in Number of Crimes
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How Did the San Diego Region Compare to Other Jurisdictions for Mid-Year Property Crime Changes?
Burglary Larceny MotorVehicleTheft
San Diego Region -13% <1% -3%
Los Angeles -9% <1% -9%
Long Beach -25% 5% -18%
San Francisco 4% -12% -25%
Oakland -15% 1% -16%
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Criminal Justice Research Division
sandag.org/cj
Public Safety Committee Item 5 | September 21, 2018 1
Law Enforcement Sensitive
1. Precise production levels are unknown.2. Mexican internal seizure quantities are breaking all records.3. Seizures have recently occurred of 20+ metric ton quantities – “super” labs.
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1. Crossed primarily by vehicle loads at Ports of Entry. 20lb to 80lb loads most common.2. Seizures by CBP and Border Patrol are showing significant year-over-year increases.3. Body carrying is a serious threat, particularly the use of San Diego high school students.4. Much of the meth transits SD region destined for Los Angeles region.
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Juvenile - 6 lbs of methamphetamine (4/18)
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Juvenile - 6.1 lbs of methamphetamine (5/18)
Juvenile - 6 lbs of methamphetamine (5/18)
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Juvenile -1.4 lbs of heroin/fentanyl1 lb methamphetamine (7/18)
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4 San Diego area meth seizures 2017-2018 = 98% average purity
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Tijuana, Mexico8/5/18
Fallbrook High8/5/18
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Questions?
S/A Rocky HerronDEA San Diego858-616-4100
Public Safety Committee Item 6 | September 21, 2018 1
Preliminary Regional Growth Forecast
Public Safety CommitteeSeptember 21, 2018
How is the Regional Growth Forecast Used?
• 2050 Regional Plan Transportation Network
• Regional Sustainably Communities Strategyland-use pattern
• San Diego County Water Authority facility planning
• Local planning efforts
• San Diego County Health and Human Services research efforts
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The Region’s Evolution
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Comparing Growth Projected in 1999 and 2018
2020: 3.9 million pop 2050: 4.0 million pop
Regional Demographic Growth Forecast
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Regional Growth Forecast
Population 4.0 Million
Jobs 1.8 Million
Housing Units 1.7 Million
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
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Growth (2017‐2050) = 700,000
Growth (2017‐2050) = 360,000
Growth (2017‐2050) = 452,000
Department of Finance Population Projections
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
Actual Projections
6Source: CA Department of Finance, 2017 Series Projections
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Total Population Forecast Range
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
Actual Projections
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4.3 mil
4.0 mil3.7 mil
Range
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Public Safety Committee Item 6 | September 21, 2018 5
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Race and Ethnic Composition
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Note: All race groups are “Non‐Hispanic”; All race/ethnicity groups are mutually exclusiveSource: California Dept. of Finance Population Projections, 2017
White , 38.4%
White , 46.6%
Hispanic , 40.7%
Hispanic , 33.8%
Asian 9.6%
Asian 10.7%
Black 4.8%
Black 4.8%
Two or More 5.9%
Two or More 3.3%
American Indian 0.4%
American Indian 0.4%
Pacific Islander , 0.3%
Pacific Islander , 0.4%
2050
2016
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Projected Population Growth in California by County—2016 to 2050
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0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
San Diego
Source: California Dept. of Finance Population Projections, 2017
Projections
• Input from local jurisdictions• Input from expert review • National and local trends
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Public Safety Committee Item 6 | September 21, 2018 7
Expert Review Panel—Institutions Represented
March 2017 Panel—Data and Methods • California
Department of Finance
• Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy
• Economics & Politics, Inc.
• National University
• Pt. Loma Nazarene University
• San Diego State University
• San Francisco Federal Reserve
• UC San Diego
• University of Florida
• University of San Diego
• WSP Parsons Brinkerhoff
February 2018—Assumptions • California Department of Finance
• University of San Diego
• Southern California Association of Governments
• London/Moeder Advisors
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Key Regional Assumptions
• Population Grows Older and We Live Longer; 81 percent of the total pop growth will be in age 65+
Median age increases from 35 to 40
Average household size decreases as population ages
• Acknowledge Second Homes and Vacation Rentals as “Un-Occupiable” Units ~ 57,000 units
• Healthy Vacancy Rate (4% effective rate long term)
Capacity for first time homebuyers
Permits residents to move between units
Moderates housing and rental prices
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Age Composition of the Population
15
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
0 to
4
5 to
9
10 to
14
15 to
19
20 to
24
25 to
29
30 to
34
35 to
39
40 to
44
45 to
49
50 to
54
55 to
59
60 to
64
65 to
69
70 to
74
75 to
79
80 to
84
85 to
89
90 p
lus
2016 Population 2050 Population
81% of the populationgrowth is to ages 65+
Household Size Declines with Median Age
16
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Persons per Household vs. Median Age of U.S. Counties in 2010
San Diego County, 2010 (2.75)
Regional Forecast, 2050 (2.56)
Source: Census 2010, Summary File 1
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Healthy Housing Market Vacancy Rate
• State (HCD) uses a 5% vacancy rate
• Expert review panel recommended a5% vacancy rate
• Board of Directors targets a 4% long-term vacancy rate
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Housing Need Forecast
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-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
Historical Forecast Linear (Historical)
1.7 mil
1.2 mil
1.8 mil
1.6 mil
Range
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Residential Permits Issued San Diego County
19
Mira Mesa,
ScrippsRanch Penasquitos,
North Coast, San Marcos
Carmel Valley, Poway/Rancho
Bernardo, Eastlake
Penasquitos, Scripps Ranch, Eastlake San
Luis Rey
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11,628: annual average units needed 2000-2017 to support
population growth
53,851unit shortage
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Units Decadal AverageSource: Real Estate Research Council, SD Regional Chamber
Residential Permits Issued San Diego County
20
Mira Mesa,
ScrippsRanch Penasquitos,
North Coast, San Marcos
Carmel Valley, Poway/Rancho
Bernardo, Eastlake
Penasquitos, Scripps Ranch, Eastlake San
Luis Rey
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11,628: annual average units needed 2000-2017 to support
population growth
53,851unit shortage
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Units Decadal AverageSource: Real Estate Research Council, SD Regional Chamber
Housing units needed2017‐2050
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Jobs Forecast
21
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
Actual Projected
1.8 mil
1.7 mil
1.9 mil
1.4 mil
Range
Regional Growth Forecast
Population 4.0 Million
Jobs 1.8 Million
Housing Units 1.7 Million
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
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Growth (2017‐2050) = 700,000
Growth (2017‐2050) = 360,000
Growth (2017‐2050) = 452,000