CRed carbon reduction Energy Science Director: HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation School of...

CRedcarbon reduction

Energy Science Director: HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation

School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia

Master Class: 16th June 2012

Keith Tovey (杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnvCRed

Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal5th October 2007

Presentation available at: www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/cred.htm

www.uea.ac.uk\~e680\cred\cred.htm

1

Low Carbon Strategies at the University of East Anglia

• Low Energy Buildings and their Management• Low Carbon Energy Provision

– Photovoltaics– CHP– Adsorption chilling– Biomass Gasification

• The Energy Tour• Energy Security: Hard Choices facing the UK


• Low Energy Buildings and their Management

2

3

Original buildings

Teaching wall

Library

Student residences

4

Nelson Court 楼

Constable Terrace 楼

4

5

Low Energy Educational Buildings

Elizabeth Fry Building

ZICER

Nursing and Midwifery

School

Medical School5

Medical School Phase 2

Thomas Paine Study Centre

6

Constable Terrace - 1993

• Four Storey Student Residence

• Divided into “houses” of 10 units each with en-suite facilities• Heat Recovery of body and cooking

heat ~ 50%.

• Insulation standards exceed 2006 standards

• Small 250 W panel heaters in individual rooms.

Electricity Use

21%

18%

17%

18%

14%

12%

Appliances

Lighting

MHVR Fans

MHVR Heating

Panel Heaters

Hot Water

Carbon Dioxide Emissions - Constable Terrace

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

UEA Low Medium

Kg

/m2 /y

r

7

Educational Buildings at UEA in 1990s

Queen’s Building 1993 Elizabeth Fry Building 1994

Elizabeth Fry Building Employs Termodeck principle and uses ~ 25% of Queen’s Building

8

Elizabeth Fry Binası - 1994Cost ~6% more but has heating requirement ~20% of average building at time.Significantly outperforms even latest Building Regulations.Runs on a single domestic sized central heating boiler.

Maliyeti ~%6 daha fazla olsada, ısınma ihtiyacı zamanın ortalama binalarının ~%20’si.En son Bina Yönetmeliklerini bile büyük ölçüde aşmaktadır.

Tek bir ev tipi merkezi ısıtma kazanı ile çalışmaktadır.

The Elizabeth Fry Building 1994

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004Top

lam

Ene

rji T

üket

imi (

kWh/

m2 /y

ıl)

Heating/Cooling Hot Water Electricity

9

Conservation: management improvements Koruma: yönetimde iyileştirmeler

Careful Monitoring and Analysis can reduce energy consumption.

Dikkatli İzleme ve Analiz, enerji tüketimini azaltabilir.

.

020406080

100120

ElizabethFry

low energy average

CO

2/m

2/yı

l electricity

gas

0

50

100

150

200

250

Elizabeth Fry Low Energy Average

kW

h/m

2 /yıl

gaselectricity

10

Comparison with other buildings Diğer Binalarla Karşılaştırma

Energy Performance

Enerji Performansı

Carbon Dioxide Performance

Karbon Dioksit Performanı

Non Technical Evaluation of Elizabeth Fry Building PerformanceElizabeth Fry Bina Performansının Teknik Olmayan Değerlendirmesi

thermal comfort +28%

air quality +36%

lighting +25%

noise +26%

User Satisfaction

A Low Energy Building is also a better place to work in.

Isıl rahatlık +%28

Hava kalitesi +%36

aydınlatma +%25

gürültü +%26

Kullanıcı memnuniyeti

Bir Düşük Enerji binası ayrıca içinde çalışmak için de daha iyi bir yerdir.

11

ZICER Building

• Heating Energy consumption as new in 2003 was reduced by further 57% by careful record keeping, management techniques and an adaptive approach to control.

• Incorporates 34 kW of Solar Panels on top floor

Won the Low Energy Building of the Year Award 2005

12

The ground floor open plan office

The first floor open plan office

The first floor cellular offices

13

The ZICER Building –

Main part of the building

• High in thermal mass • Air tight• High insulation standards • Triple glazing with low emissivity ~ equivalent to quintuple glazing

14

Operation of Main Building Mechanically ventilated that utilizes hollow core ceiling slabs as supply air ducts to the space

Regenerative heat exchangerIncoming

air into the AHU

15

Air enters the internal occupied space空气进入内部使用空间

Operation of Main Building

Air passes through hollow cores in the

ceiling slabs空气通过空心的板层

Filter过滤器

Heater加热器

16

Operation of Main Building

Recovers 87% of Ventilation Heat Requirement.

Space for future chilling

将来制冷的空间 Out of the building出建筑物

Return stale air is extracted from each floor 从每层出来的回流空气

The return air passes through the heat

exchanger空气回流进入热交换器 17

Fabric Cooling: Importance of Hollow Core Ceiling Slabs

Hollow core ceiling slabs store heat and cool at different times of the year providing comfortable and stable temperatures

Heat is transferred to the air before entering the room

Slabs store heat from appliances and body heat.

热量在进入房间之前被传递到空气中板层储存来自于电器以及人体发出的热量

Winter Day

Air Temperature is same as building fabric leading to a more pleasant working environment

Warm air

Warm air

18

Heat is transferred to the air before entering the room

Slabs also radiate heat back into room

热量在进入房间之前被传递到空气中

板层也把热散发到房间内

Winter Night

In late afternoon

heating is turned off.

Cold air

Cold air



19

Draws out the heat accumulated during the day

Cools the slabs to act as a cool store the following day

把白天聚积的热量带走。

冷却板层使其成为来日的冷存储器

Summer night

night ventilation/ free cooling

Cool air

Cool air



20

Slabs pre-cool the air before entering the occupied space

concrete absorbs and stores heat less/no need for air-conditioning

空气在进入建筑使用空间前被预先冷却混凝土结构吸收和储存了热量以减少 / 停止对空调的使用

Summer day

Warm air

Warm air



21

0

200

400

600

800

1000

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Mean |External Temperature (oC)

En

ergy

Con

sum

pti

on (

kW

h/d

ay)

Original Heating Strategy New Heating Strategy

Good Management has reduced Energy Requirements

800

350

Space Heating Consumption reduced by 57%

原始供热方法新供热方法 22

建造209441GJ

使用空调384967GJ

自然通风221508GJ

Life Cycle Energy Requirements of ZICER compared to other buildings

与其他建筑相比 ZICER 楼的能量需求

Materials Production 材料制造 Materials Transport 材料运输On site construction energy 现场建造Workforce Transport 劳动力运输Intrinsic Heating / Cooling energy

基本功暖 / 供冷能耗Functional Energy 功能能耗Refurbishment Energy 改造能耗Demolition Energy 拆除能耗

28%54%

34%51%

61%

29%

23

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Years

GJ

ZICER

Naturally Ventilated

Air Conditrioned

Life Cycle Energy Requirements of ZICER compared to other buildings

Compared to the Air-conditioned office, ZICER as built recovers extra energy required in construction in under 1 year.

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Years

GJ

ZICER

Naturally Ventilated

Air Conditrioned

24





25

• Mono-crystalline PV on roof ~ 27 kW in 10 arrays• Poly- crystalline on façade ~ 6.7 kW in 3 arrays

ZICER Building

Photo shows only part of top

Floor

26

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

2004 2005

Lo

ad

Fa

cto

rfaçade roof average

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

2004 2005

kWh

/ m

2

Façade Roof

Load factorsFaçade: 2% in winter ~8% in summerRoof 2% in winter 15% in summer

Output per unit areaLittle difference between orientations in winter months

Performance of PV cells on ZICER

27

02040

6080

100120140

160180200

9 10 11 12 13 14 15Time of Day

Wh

01020

3040506070

8090100

%

Top Row

Middle Row

Bottom Row

radiation

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60

70

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90

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9 10 11 12 13 14 15Time of day

Wh

0

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60

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90

100

%

Block1

Block 2

Block 3

Block 4

Block 5

Block 6

Block 7

Block 8

Block 9

Block 10

radiation

All arrays of cells on roof have similar performance respond to actual solar radiation

The three arrays on the façade respond differently

Performance of PV cells on ZICER

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00 14.00 15.00 16.00

Elev

ation

in th

e sky

(deg

rees)

120 150 180 210 240Orientation relative to True North 29

0

5

10

15

20

25

6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00 14.00 15.00 16.00Time (hours)

Elev

ation

in th

e sky

(deg

rees)

January February March AprilMay June July AugustSeptember October November DecemberP1 - bottom PV row P2 - middle PV row P3 - top PV row

30

313131

Arrangement of Cells on Facade

Individual cells are connected horizontally

As shadow covers one column all cells are inactive

If individual cells are connected vertically, only those cells actually in shadow are affected.

Cells active

Cells inactive even though not covered by shadow

31

Use of PV generated energy

Sometimes electricity is exported

Inverters are only 91% efficient

• Most use is for computers• DC power packs are inefficient typically less than 60% efficient

• Need an integrated approach

Peak output is 34 kW 峰值 34 kW

32

Actual Situation excluding Grant

Actual Situation with Grant

Discount rate 3% 5% 7% 3% 5% 7%

Unit energy cost per kWh (£) 1.29 1.58 1.88 0.84 1.02 1.22

Avoided cost exc. the Grant

Avoided Costs with Grant

Discount rate 3% 5% 7% 3% 5% 7%

Unit energy cost per kWh (£) 0.57 0.70 0.83 0.12 0.14 0.16

33Grant was ~ £172 000 out of a total of ~ £480 000

Performance of PV cells on ZICERCost of Generated Electricity

• Peak Cell efficiency is ~ 9.5%.• Average efficiency over year

is 7.5%

34

Mono-crystalline Cell Efficiency Poly-crystalline Cell Efficiency

Efficiency of PV Cells

• Peak Cell efficiency is ~ 14% and close to standard test bed efficiency.

• Most projections of performance use this efficiency

• Average efficiency over year is 11.1%

Inverter Efficiencies reduce overall system efficiencies to 10.1% and 6.73% respectively

Life Cycle Issues for PV Array on ZICER Building

Embodied Energy in PV Cells (most arising from Electricity (~80%) use in manufacture) - SPAIN

1260 1557 1073 1326

Array supports and system connections - GERMANY

135 135 135 135

On site Installation energy (UK) 52 52 52 52

Transportation between manufacture and UEA 6 trips @400 km

113 24 113 24

Total tonnes CO2 / kWp 1.56 1.74 1.37 1.51

Mono-crystalline CO2 (kg/ kWp)

Poly-crystallineCO2 (kg/ kWp)

As manu-factured

UK manu-facture

As manu-factured

Carbon Factors for Electricity Production

Spain ~ 0.425 kg / kWhUK and Germany ~ 0.53 kg/kWh

Energy Yield Ratios Life time of CellsMono-crystalline Cells 20 25 30As add on retro-fit 3.2 3.8 4.6Integrated into design 3.5 4.2 5.4

EngineGenerator

36% Electricity

50% Heat

Gas

Heat Exchanger

Exhaust Heat

Exchanger

11% Flue Losses3% Radiation Losses

86%

Localised generation makes use of waste heat.

Reduces conversion losses significantly

Conversion efficiency improvements – Building Scale CHP

61% Flue Losses

36%

36

UEA’s Combined Heat and Power

3 units each generating up to 1.0 MW electricity and 1.4 MW heat 37

38

Conversion efficiency improvements

1997/98 electricity gas oil Total

MWh 19895 35148 33

Emission factor kg/kWh 0.46 0.186 0.277

Carbon dioxide Tonnes 9152 6538 9 15699

Electricity Heat

1999/2000

Total site

CHP generation

export import boilers CHP oil total

MWh 20437 15630 977 5783 14510 28263 923Emission

factorkg/kWh -0.46 0.46 0.186 0.186 0.277

CO2 Tonnes -449 2660 2699 5257 256 10422

Before installation

After installation

This represents a 33% saving in carbon dioxide

38

3939

Conversion efficiency improvements

Load Factor of CHP Plant at UEA

Demand for Heat is low in summer: plant cannot be used effectivelyMore electricity could be generated in summer

39

A typical Air conditioning/Refrigeration Unit

节流阀Throttle Valve

冷凝器

绝热

Condenser

Heat rejected

蒸发器

为冷却进行热提取

Evaporator

Heat extracted for cooling

高温高压

High TemperatureHigh Pressure

低温低压

Low TemperatureLow Pressure

Compressor

压缩器

40

Absorption Heat Pump

Adsorption Heat pump reduces electricity demand and increases electricity generated

节流阀Throttle Valve

冷凝器

绝热

Condenser

Heat rejected

蒸发器

为冷却进行热提取

Evaporator

Heat extracted for cooling

高温高压

High TemperatureHigh Pressure

低温低压

Low TemperatureLow Pressure

外部热

Heat from external source

W ~ 0

吸收器

吸收器

热交换器

Absorber

Desorber

Heat Exchanger

41

A 1 MW Adsorption chiller

1 MW 吸附冷却器

• Reduces electricity demand in summer

• Increases electricity generated locally

• Saves ~500 tonnes Carbon Dioxide annually

• Uses Waste Heat from CHP

• provides most of chilling requirements in summer

42

The Future: Biomass Advanced Gasifier/ Combined Heat and Power

• Addresses increasing demand for energy as University expands

• Will provide an extra 1.4MW of electrical energy and 2MWth heat• Will have under 7 year payback• Will use sustainable local wood fuel mostly from waste from saw

mills• Will reduce Carbon Emissions of UEA by ~ 25% despite increasing student numbers by 250%

43

44 4444

• Low Energy Buildings

• Effective Adaptive Energy Management

• Photovoltaics

• Combined Heat and Power

• Absorption Chilling

• Advanced CHP using Biomass Gasification

• World’s First MBA in Strategic Carbon Management

Low Energy Buildings

Photo-Voltaics

Efficient CHP Absorption Chilling

Trailblazing to a Low Carbon Future

Low Energy Buildings

45 4545

Photo-Voltaics

Advanced Biomass CHP using GasificationEfficient CHP Absorption Chilling


46 4646

1990 2006 Change since 1990

2010 Change since 1990

Students 5570 14047 +152% 16000 +187%

Floor Area (m2) 138000 207000 +50% 220000 +159%

CO2 (tonnes) 19420 21652 +11% 14000 -28%

CO2 kg/m2 140.7 104.6 -25.7% 63.6 -54.8%

CO2 kg/student 3490 1541 -55.8% 875 -74.9%

Efficient CHP Absorption Chilling






47

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

Bil

lion

cu

bic

met

res

Actual UK production

Actual UK demandProjected productionProjected demand

48

Import Gap

Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK

On 7th/8th December 2010: UK Production was only 39%: 12%

from storage and 49% from imports

Prices have become much more volatile since UK is no longer self sufficient in gas.

Gas Production and Demand in UK

UK becomes net importer of gas

Completion of Langeled Gas Line to Norway

Oil reaches $140 a barrel

49Per capita Carbon Emissions

UK

How does UK compare with other countries?

Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others?

What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem?

France

50

Carbon Emissions and Electricity

UK

France

• Coal ~ 0.9 kg / kWh

• Oil ~ 0.8 kg/kWh

• Gas (CCGT) ~ 0.43 kg/kWh

• Nuclear 0.01 kg/kWh

Current UK mix ~ 0.53 kg/kWh

2008/9 2009/10

Coal 44% 34%

CCGT 36% 46%

Nuclear 15% 17%

Electricity Generation Carbon Emission Factors

r

52

Electricity Generation i n selected Countries

Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s if then

53

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers

Energy Review

2002

9th May 2011 (*)

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (at present 45-

50%)Available now (but gas

is running out)~2p +

8.0p[5 - 11]

nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 15% (France 80%) - (currently 18% and

falling)

new inherently safe designs - some

development needed2.5 - 3.5p

7.75p [5.5 - 10]

nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest not until

2050 for significant impact

"Clean Coal"Coal currently ~40% but

scheduled to fall

Available now: Not viable without Carbon

Capture & Sequestration

2.5 - 3.5p

[7.5 - 15]p - unlikely

before 2025

* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

In

sta

lled

Ca

pa

cit

y (

MW

)

New Build ?

ProjectedActual

Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2020.

?

54

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Future prices from

* Renewable Energy Review – 9th May 2011 Climate Change Committee

1.5MW TurbineAt peak output provides sufficient electricity for 3000 homes

On average has provided electricity for 700 – 850 homes depending on year

~8.2p +/- 0.8p

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002

(Gas ~ 2p)May 2011

(Gas ~ 8.0p) *

On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]

available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p

55


~8.2p +/- 0.8p


(Gas ~ 2p)May 2011

(Gas ~ 8.0p) *



Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich

Climate Change Committee (9th May 2011) see offshore wind as being very expensive and recommends reducing planned expansion by 3 GW and increasing onshore wind by same amount

Off Shore Wind 25 - 50%some technical

development needed to reduce costs.

~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

56


~8.2p +/- 0.8p


(Gas ~ 2p)May 2011

(Gas ~ 8.0p) *





~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at

Itteringham Mill, Norfolk.

Rated capacity 5.5 kW

Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

Hydro (mini - micro)

5%technically mature, but

limited potential2.5 - 3p

11p for <2MW projects

57


~8.2p +/- 0.8p


(Gas ~ 2p)May 2011

(Gas ~ 8.0p) *





~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5






Climate Change Report suggests that 1.6 TWh (0.4%) might be achieved by 2020 which is equivalent to ~ 2.0 GW.

Photovoltaic<<5% even

assuming 10 GW of installation

available, but much further research needed to bring down

costs significantly15+ p 25p +/-8

58


~8.2p +/- 0.8p


(Gas ~ 2p)May 2011

(Gas ~ 8.0p) *





~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5






Photovoltaic<<5% even assuming

10 GW of installation

available, but much further research needed to bring down costs significantly

15+ p 25p +/-8

Transport Fuels:

• Biodiesel?

• Bioethanol?

• Compressed gas from methane from waste.

To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require an area the size of Norfolk and Suffolk devoted solely to biomass

Sewage, Landfill, Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas

??5% available, but research needed in some areas e.g. advanced gasification

2.5 - 4p7 - 13p

depending on technology

59




2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind

~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p

Off Shore Wind

25 - 50%available but costly

~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW projects

Photovoltaic <<5% available, but very

costly15+ p 25p +/-8

Biomass ??5% available, but research

needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p

Wave/Tidal Stream

currently < 10 MW may be

1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)

techology limited - major development not

before 20204 - 8p

19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p

+/- 7.5p Wave

60




2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind


Off Shore Wind


~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5





needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p

Wave/Tidal Stream


1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)

techology limited - major development not

before 20204 - 8p

19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p

+/- 7.5p Wave

61




2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind


Off Shore Wind


~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5





needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p

Wave/Tidal Stream


1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)

technology limited - major development not

before 20204 - 8p

19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p

+/- 7.5p Wave

Severn Barrage/ Mersey Barrages have been considered frequently

e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009

Severn Barrage could provide 5-8% of UK electricity needs

In Orkney – Churchill Barriers

Output ~80 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south.

Would save 40000 tonnes of CO2

Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%

technology available but unlikely for 2020. Construction time ~10 years.

In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development

26p +/-5

62




2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind

~25% available now ~ 2+p

~8.2p +/- 0.8p

Off Shore Wind


~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW




needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p

Wave/Tidal Stream

currently < 10 MW ??1000 - 2000 MW

(~0.1%)


before 20204 - 8p

19p Tidal 26.5p Wave

Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%In 2010 Government abandoned

plans for development26p +/-5

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be

confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity

63




2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind

~25% available now ~ 2+p

~8.2p +/- 0.8p

Off Shore Wind


~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW




needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p

Wave/Tidal Stream

currently < 10 MW ??1000 - 2000 MW

(~0.1%)


before 20204 - 8p

19p Tidal 26.5p Wave

Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%In 2010 Government abandoned

plans for development26p +/-5

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be

confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity

64

Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?.

Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 10 - 20 years.

[very expensive or technically immature or both]

If our answer is NO

Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?

Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?

If our answer is NO

Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly

• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee

[9th May 2011]

If our answer to coal is NO

Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

Our Choices: They are difficult

65

Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is YES

By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS

for around 70% of our heating and electricity

imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria

Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>If not:

We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.

Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?

Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?

Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making – not merely be against one technology or another

66

Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation

Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.

Existing Coal

Existing Nuclear

Oil


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

TW

H (b

illio

ns o

f uni

ts (k

Wh)

)

Existing Coal

UK GasImported Gas

New Nuclear

New Coal

Existing Nuclear

Other Renewables

Offshore Wind

Onshore Wind

Oil

• 1 new nuclear station completed each year after 2020.• 1 new coal station with CCS each year after 2020• 1 million homes fitted with PV each year from 2020 - 40% of homes fitted by 2030 • 15+ GW of onshore wind by 2030 cf 4 GW now


• No electric cars or heat pumps

Version suitable for Office 2003, 2007 & 2010

67

Sustainable Options for the future?Energy Generation•Solar thermal - providing hot water - most suitable for domestic installations, hotels – generally lees suitable for other businesses

•Solar PV – providing electricity - suitable for all sizes of installation

• Example 2 panel ( 2.6 sqm ) in Norwich – generates 826kWh/year (average over 7 years).

• The more hot water you use the more solar heat you get!

• Renewable Heat Incentive available from 2012

• Area required for 1 kW peak varies from ~ 5.5 to 8.5 sqm depending on technology and manufacturer

• Approximate annual estimate of generation

= installed capacity * 8760 * 0.095

hours in year load/capacity factor of 9.5%

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House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar Panels

- less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!

It is all very well for South East, but what about the North?

House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of February

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Conclusions• Hard Choices face us in the next 20 years

• Effective adaptive energy management can reduce heating energy requirements in a low energy building by 50% or more.

• Heavy weight buildings can be used to effectively control energy consumption

• Photovoltaic cells need to take account of intended use of electricity use in building to get the optimum value.

• Building scale CHP can reduce carbon emissions significantly

• Adsorption chilling should be included to ensure optimum utilisation of CHP plant, to reduce electricity demand, and allow increased generation of electricity locally.

• Promoting Awareness can result in up to 25% savings

• The Future for UEA: Biomass CHP Wind Turbines?

Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

CRed carbon reduction Energy Science Director: HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation School of...

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