Círculo de Empresarios - Informe Trimestral Situación de la … · 2018-02-05 · 4Q-17 and...

Global and Spanish economy

4Q-17 and outlook for 2018

February 2018

QUARTERLY REPORT

GLOBAL

2017 GDP growth and forecasts for 2018

Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF, January 2018

3

1,8

2.3 2.7

2 2.3

1.3 1.9

2.4 2.2

6.8 6.6

CHINA

EUROZONE

LATIN AMERICA

MEXICO

USA

BRAZIL

1.1 1.9

RUSSIA

1.8 1,7

Growth extended across all geographic areas and exceeded expectations

GLOBAL

3.7 3.9

AFRICA

2.7 3.3

Real GDP growth(%)

2018

2017

2017 Key facts

Source: Círculo de Empresarios, 2018 4

US exit from TPP agreement

Art. 50 is activatedChina’s rating downgrade

UK Elections

NAFTA renegotiations

Fed announcedbalance sheet

reduction

ECB announced QE reduction

January-February March April-May June

Macron: new

president of

France

AugustSeptemberOctober-November

Fed interest rate

hike

Trump’s Tax

reform

Fed interest ratehike

December

Once again, a year marked by political uncertainty

Fed interest ratehike

illegal referendum

in Catalonia


Forecasts for 2018

1 2 3

Robust and

synchronized growth

Gradual withdrawal of

monetary stimulus in

advanced economies

Political uncertainty

remains

4

High valuations in

Financial markets

Strengths and risks

58%

42%

88%

12%

97%

3%

Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on FMI, JP Morgan, Markit, 20186

Positive behavior of global growthFor the first time since 2010, the global economy exceeds the forecast of

economic expansion

54

% Countries with positive growth

2009 2012 2018

GLOBAL PMI

54.5

50 level

Expansion

Contraction

December 2017

Countries with positive growth Countries with negative growth

Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF, JP Morgan, 20187

Growth in advanced and emerging countries

The acceleration of emerging countries growth reflects the recovery in commodity

exporters

56.3

52.2

Emerging

Advanced

Manufacturing PMI new maximum(December 2017)

Note: values above 50 indicates expansion

In parenthesis data of December 2016

(53.8)

(51)Forescast

2.1 2.21.7

2.2 2.0

4.74.3 4.3

4.64.9

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Real GDP growth

%

Advanced Emerging


Geopolitical uncertaintyThe process of globalization continues although there are pockets of trade protectionism

JAPAN

CANADA

MEXICO

TPP 12 (with USA)

38.3% global GDP

TPP 11(without USA)

13.5% global GDP

US leaves

TPP

The exit of US has not stopped trade negotiations

* Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, Peru, New Zealand, Singapour, Vietnam

The potential incorporation of South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines would generateearnings of 500 billion $(higher than initial agreement with USA)

Possible TPP 16

1

2 NAFTA renegotiations worries

Brexit trade consequences3

Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)

(January 2017)

Inflation remained low, however...

The 80% of OECD countries (+ China) are in full employment, which could lead to greater

inflationary pressures for the next two years…

Global inflation

Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on JP Morgan, 2018

Unemployment and inflation rate OECD

Unemployment reduction

Wage growth

Inflation

potential

growth

GDP dynamism

…Nevertheless, there are still deflationary forces

such as aging population or low productivity which

keeps wage growth in low levels

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Unemployment (% active population)

Inflation (%)

Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF and Vanguard, 2018 10

China confirms a moderate slowdownThe risks of a hard landing is reduced in 2018, but its level of total debt worries*

Low intensity of industrial and real estate overcapacity

2017: 6.8%

2018: 6.6%

Real GDP growth

Supply side reforms and symptoms of openness

Positive advance in services sector activity

1

2

3

*IMF estimate that total debt will reach 300% of GDP in 2022 (actual: 230% PIB)

Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on World Bank, 2018 11

Economic recovery in Latin America and RussiaArgentina, Brazil and Russia exit recession

Text goes here goes here goes here goes here goes here goes here goes here goes here goes here.

Step 2


Step 3


Step 1 Step 2 Step 3


Step 1 Step 2

Higher growth prospects for Mexico (due to US

demand dynamism), Brazil’s economic recovery

and the upward cycle of commodities stimulate

emerging countries growth

Growth better than expected in Russia due to

higher oil prices, greater flexibility in exchange

rate and fiscal stimulus

Latin America

Russia

Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF, January 2018 12

US: upward economic forecast (I)The Tax Reform raises growth forecasts for 2018

2.72.31.5

2016 2017 2018(PMI: 54.3) (PMI: 55.1)

Real GDP growth (%)

Note: PMI data correspond to end of the year

Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Joint Committee on Taxation, 2018 13

US: Tax Reform impact (II)

The US Senate approved Trump’s Tax Reform

Simplification of tax brackets from 7 to 4

Corporate Tax reduction from 35% to 20%

Elimination of deductions

Impact Reform

GDP impact estimation between 0.06 and

0.36 points in the US economy in 2018(Tax Foundation, Goldman Sachs, Joint Committee on

Taxation, Wharton)

Savings average for US citizens

1,610$ in 2018 (Tax Policy Center)

The reform will add approximately 1 billion

to debt in 10 years (Joint Committee on Taxation)

US: prices stability (III)

Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on BLS y PIMCO, 201814

2-2.5

1.9

2017

2018

PIMCOestimates

The economy and employment improvement (+171,000 average jobs created in 2017)

reinforce the bullish expectations of inflation

Inflation forecast

% annual change

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

US inflation% annual change

General Core

Average inflation 50 years: 4.1%

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

September 2017 December 2017

Fed: new interest rate rise

Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Fed, 2018

15

The Fed raised interest rates in December to a range of 1.25-1.5%

Fed dot plot, 2018(%)

Greenspan Bernanke Yellen

Powell(Effective in February 2018)

3 expected hikes in 2018

Federal funds rate

%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Jul-0

0

Jun

-01

Ma

y-0

2

Ap

r-03

Ma

r-04

Fe

b-0

5

Jan

-06

De

c-0

6

No

v-0

7

Oc

t-0

8

Se

p-0

9

Au

g-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jun

-12

Ma

y-1

3

Ap

r-14

Ma

r-15

Fe

b-1

6

Jan

-17

De

c-1

7

Note: Each dot represents a governor’s vote

5

4

-4

1.52.4

0

1.6

3.34.1

34

3.4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Hungary Poland Romania Czech Republic EU=100

The main economies of Emerging Europe grow

at a faster pace than EU 28Inflation: 0.1%

2016

Unemployment : 5.3%

2.0%

2017

4.3%

Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF, 2018

Emerging Europe: stronger economic growth

2.6%

2018

4.1%

Poland was the only country of

the EU that avoid recession

Main European emerging countries real GDP growth*

*Average of the 4 main economies of emerging Europe: Poland, Romania, Czech Republic and Hungary

%

Forecast

Emerging Europe growth vs EU 28

Average EU 28 Emerging Europe

Forecast

Forecast

Eurozone: growth greater than expected

17

2.4 2.2

2016 2017 2018

The greater external demand boosts its economic activity

1.8

1.7

Real GDP gowth (%)

1.6 1.6IMF forecast

January 2017

IMF forecast

January 2018

Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF, January 2018

-1,0

,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

Oc

t-07

Ma

r-0

8

Au

g-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Ju

n-0

9

No

v-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Fe

b-1

1

Ju

l-1

1

De

c-1

1

Ma

y-1

2

Oc

t-12

Ma

r-1

3

Au

g-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ma

y-1

7

Oc

t-17

UK: the rebound of inflation consolidates

18Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on ONS, IMF, 2018

Brexit negotiations move to second phase in a scenario of higher inflation

and lower growth in UK

Monthly inflation rate% annual change

Inflation 2017 = 2.7%

Real GDP growth

%

2015

Referendum

2016

2017

2018

2.3

2014

1.9

1.8

1.5

3.1

Brexit

Forecast

0.50

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Bank of England official interest rate

1.31

1.08

1.15

1,05

1,10

1,15

1,20

1,25

1,30

1,35

1,40

Exchange rate GBP / EUR

Bank of England: rise in interest rates

19Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of England, Investing, 2018

Bank of England raised the interest rates in November after inflation YoY

was over 2%

Brexit

Brexit%

Italy: growth despite the uncertaintyThe Italian general elections will be held on March

1.6

2

1.600

1.700

1.800

1.900

2.000

2.100

Italy 10 year borrowing costs(%)

+27.8%

Public debt% GDP

99.8133

2007 2017

Private consumption

Investment

Exports

Imports

1.21.5

3.83.2

3.55.1

3.75.5

Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Eurostat, IMF BBVA Research, Investing 2018

-2.8

-1.7

0.10.8 0.9

1.6 1.4

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Real GDP growth%

Macroeconomic indicators (%)

Political risk

Forecast

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Ja

n-8

8

Se

p-8

9

Ma

y-9

1

Ja

n-9

3

Se

p-9

4

Ma

y-9

6

Ja

n-9

8

Se

p-9

9

Ma

y-0

1

Ja

n-0

3

Se

p-0

4

Ma

y-0

6

Ja

n-0

8

Se

p-0

9

Ma

y-1

1

Ja

n-1

3

Se

p-1

4

Ma

y-1

6

Ja

n-1

8

Commodities (I): Oil on rise

Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on EIA y Bloomberg, 2017 21

In 2017, the medium price of Brent was 54 $/barrel, 10$ above 2016

1

2

3

4

Stronger global economy

OPEC oil cuts

US oil inventory reductions

Geopolitical tensions

Brent barrel price ($)

69$

135$

26$

Brent Forecast 2018:[60$-70$ ]

Reasons for higher prices

Commodities (II)

22Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on JP Morgan, 2018

Actual = Lowest level in 10 years Highest level in 10 years

72.88 $

88.17$

46.84 $

237.95$

101.82$

48.63$

26.21 $

69$

145.29$

84.23 $ 245.20$

138.51$

Bloomberg

Commodity Index

Agriculture

Crude oil

Industrial materials

Note: Prices are represented by the appropriate Bloomberg Commodity sub-index

Metals and energy prices recovered in 2017

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

Jan

-08

Jul-0

8

Jan

-09

Jul-0

9

Jan

-10

Jul-1

0

Jan

-11

Jul-1

1

Jan

-12

Jul-1

2

Jan

-13

Jul-1

3

Jan

-14

Jul-1

4

Jan

-15

Jul-1

5

Jan

-16

Jul-1

6

Jan

-17

Jul-1

7

Jan

.-1

8

Currency market

Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on St Louis Fed, 2018 23

Since the beginning of 2017, dollar depreciation against its main trading partners

Dollar exchange rate against a weighted basket of currencies*

1973=100

• Includes euro, Canadian dollar, yen, pound, Swiss franc, Australian dolar and Swedish krona

Maximums in 14 yearsDollar against major foreign currencies, 2017

-4.5%

-9%

-4.2%

-12%

Financial markets

24Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on JP Morgan, CNMV, 2018

Low financial volatility and US stock markets closed at records

Stock market performance, 2017%

98

103

108

113

118

123

128

133

138

US Stock marketsJan 2017=100

S&P 500 DJIA Global 20.1

S&P 500 19.4

Dow Jones 25.1

Nasdaq 28.2

Eurostoxx 50 6.5

Dax 30 12.5

Cac 40 9.3

Ibex 35 7.4

Nikkei 225 19.1

Korea Cmp. 21.8

25

SPAIN

2017 Review

26

● Economic activity remains solid (3.1% YoY), after several upward revisions of forecasts

● Job creation (2.7% YoY) and falling unemployment rate to 16.55%

● Rising tax revenues (4.1% YoY)

● New loans and default rates (November 2017)

The strength ofexternal sector

Improvement in business

competitiveness

Eurozone best annual performance since the financial crisis

Jan. - Nov. 2017

+10.5% YoY

New credit* Default rate

-13.9% YoY to 8.07% of total credits

2.5%(Real GDP growth 2017)

Tourism record

81.8 million of international tourist arrivals

Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain, INE and Eurostat, 2018

+

* New consumption and housing loans for households and non-financial corporations

Forecasts 2018: recovery remains solid… … although growth slows

27

20172018*

2016

3.3%3.1%

2.8%

* ForecastSource: Círculo de Empresarios based on Afi and INE, January 2018

IMF reduces Spain´s growth

forecasts from 2.5% to 2.4%

due to political uncertainty,

mainly in Catalonia

IMF (Jan.18) 2.4%

Bank of Spain (Dec. 17) 2.4%

European Commission (Nov. 17) 2.5%

OECD (Nov. 17) 2.3%

Government (Oct.17) 2.3%

Forecasts 2018

Spanish macroeconomic outlook% annual change 2016 2017 2018*

Real GDP 3.3 3.1 2.8

Final consumption 2.5 2.1 1.8

Households 3.0 2.4 2.0

PPAA 0.8 1.0 1.0GFCF 3.3 4.8 4.4 Capital goods 5.0 5.6 5.5

Construction 2.4 4.5 4.2

Domestic demand (1) 2.5 2.5 2.2

Exports 4.8 5.3 5.3

Imports 2.7 4.0 4.0

External demand (1) 0.8 0.6 0.6CPI (annual average) -0.2 2.0 1.8

GDP Price Deflator 0.3 0.9 1.1

Nominal GDP 3.6 4.0 3.9

Employment 2.7 2.6 2.4

Unemployment rate 19.6 17.1 15.1General government net

lending/borrowing EDP (% GDP) -4.5 -3.1 -2.6

Public debt EDP (% GDP) 99.7 98.7 97.6

Current account balance (% GDP) 2.02 1.9 1.8

(1) Growth contribution

Downside risks in 2018

28

Political uncertainty – mainly in Catalonia

Effects of rising oil prices on domestic demand and on current account balance

Paralyzed structural reforms

Reduction of monetary stimulus by the ECB

High level of public debt

Structural unemployment

Tailwinds

29

Global and European economic recovery

Employment creation

2 millions in 4 years

Debt reduction

Mainly by private sectorprivado

Monetary policy and favourable financial conditions

Spanish economy competitiveness

From 2012 → Non-energy trade surplus

Economic growth 2017 (I)

2017 GDP = 3.1%

• Private consumption = 2.4%

• Public consumption = 1%

• Gross fixed capital formation = 4.8%

Domestic demand% annual change

2.5 ppgrowth contribution

Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Afi, January 2018 30

0.6 pp

External demandGoods and services

% annual change

growth contribution

• Exports = 5.3%

• Imports = 4%

Current economic growth (II)

Spain maintains its growth above EU average, although the positive gap is narrowing

The Spanish GDP growth follows

the Manufacturing PMI trend

31

Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Markit, Eurostat and INE, 2018

Manufacturing PMI December

55.8

In parenthesis December 2016

(55.3)

GDP growth and employment

Spanish GDP has reached its pre-crisis level with a number of affiliates 3.8% below 2007 level

Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, January 2018 32

Labour market (I)

33Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, 2017

Active Population Survey Q4 2017 (INE)

490,300 new jobs were created in 2017 and the unemployment rate dropped to16.55% (3,766,700

unemployed), more than 10 points below its maximum level of Q1 2013

8.01

26.94

Q4 2017

16.55

20,753,4

16,950.6

18,998,4

8,0

10,0

12,0

14,0

16,0

18,0

20,0

22,0

24,0

26,0

28,0

16.000

17.000

18.000

19.000

20.000

21.000

200

7Q

3

200

7Q

4

200

8Q

1

200

8Q

2

200

8Q

3

200

8Q

4

200

9Q

1

200

9Q

2

200

9Q

3

200

9Q

4

201

0Q

1

201

0Q

2

201

0Q

3

201

0Q

4

201

1Q

1

201

1Q

2

201

1Q

3

201

1Q

4

201

2Q

1

201

2Q

2

201

2Q

3

201

2Q

4

201

3Q

1

201

3Q

2

201

3Q

3

201

3Q

4

201

4Q

1

201

4Q

2

201

4Q

3

201

4Q

4

201

5Q

1

201

5Q

2

201

5Q

3

201

5Q

4

201

6Q

1

201

6Q

2

201

6Q

3

201

6Q

4

201

7Q

1

201

7Q

2

201

7Q

3

201

7Q

4

Employment and unemployment rate Q3 2007 - Q3 2017Thousand; % labour force

Unemployment rate

Employment

Labour market: public and private employment (II)


18.9 millions of employees

Private sector15.9 millions

Public sector3.0 millions

Affiliates and unemployed 2017 in 2017

New permanent contracts in 2017

35Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Ministry of Employment and Social Security, January 2018

Affiliates to Social Security and unemployed

From its peak in February 2013 (5,040,222), unemployment rate has decreased by 1,627,441 persons.

1.9 millions

35.6% conversions fromtemporary contracts

19,302,685

16,094,638

18,460,201

1,965,869

5,040,222

3,412,781

0

1.000.000

2.000.000

3.000.000

4.000.000

5.000.000

6.000.000

16.000.000

16.500.000

17.000.000

17.500.000

18.000.000

18.500.000

19.000.000

19.500.000

Jun

-07

De

c-0

7

Jun

-08

De

c-0

8

Jun

-09

De

c-0

9

Jun

-10

De

c-1

0

Jun

-11

De

c-1

1

Jun

-12

De

c-1

2

Jun

-13

De

c-1

3

Jun

-14

De

c-1

4

Jun

-15

De

c-1

5

Jun

-16

De

c-1

6

Jun

-17

De

c-1

7

Persons

Affiliates Unemployed

January 2018

Unemployment increased by 63,747 persons to 3,476,528

Affiliates decreased by 178,170 persons to 18,282,031

Unemployment rate in the UE and in SpainSpanish unemployment rate is twice as high as the Eurozone average

36Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Eurostat, 2018

Spain remains among the top 3 countries

with the highest youth unemploymet rate

(< 25 years)

Greece

Spain

Italy

40.8%

36.8%

32.2%

Pensions system

37Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Ministry of Employment and Social Security, January 2018

Number of pensions, average pension and public expenditure in pensions

have been increasing since 2007…

2007 Jan. 2018

Millions

8.3 9.6

2007

679 9302007 2017

% PIB

8.7 12.0

Pensions Average pension Public expenditure in pensions€ / month

Total

Retirement 4.9 5.9 767 1,075

Ratio contributor-pensionist

2007 20172.71 2.23

Reserve Fund

The Spanish Treasury might lend the government €15 bn

to finance extraordinary pensions in 2018

Social Security

revenues

▲5.3%

in 2017

Social Security deficit

23.4 years

Pensionable ages

(vs. 20.3 in OECD)

Jan. 2018

Years after retirement

0,81,0 1,0 1,1

1,3 1,3

0,7 0,7

-0,2 -0,1

-1,0-1,1 -1,0

-1,2

-1,6-1,4

-2,0

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

(F)

201

7 (

*)

% GDP

* target Stabiliy Programme 2017-2020

2011 € 66.8 bn

2017 € 8.1 bn

Prices are rising below the

Eurozone average after 13

months maintaining a

positive gap.

38Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE and Eurostat, 2018

Prices: CPI slowdown

December CPI = 1.1%

In January 2018,

estimated CPI is 0.5%, its

lowest level over the last

16 months, due to

electricity prices drop


Real state marketSince 2015 housing prices and investment are recovering

0.81.1 2.5 1.7

5.3

-0.3

-1.7

10.3

9.6

2.5

4.2

1

8.5

2.4

0.9

6.3

5.6

Rent prices

2017By regions

-25,0

-20,0

-15,0

-10,0

-5,0

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

Construction investment% annual change

Construction investment

Housing investment

Other

Financial conditions

40Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain, 2018

Low interest rate environment keeps driving new financing operations

Between Jan. and Nov. 2017, small and

medium companies received most part ofnew loans to companies (< 1 million €)

Public accounts

41Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness, 2018

Deficit targets

Jan. – Nov. 2017: tax revenues amounted to €180.3 bn(+4.1% YoY)

Forecast 2017 → 200.9 bn (+7.9% YoY)

* Private sector debt

2017 2018 2019 2020

General Government -1.1 -0.7 -0.3 0

Regional Administrations -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0

Local Entities 0 0 0 0

Social Security -1.4 -1.1 -0.9 -0.5

Total PPAA -3.1 -2.2 -1.3 -0.5

35.6 39.4

52.760.1

69.5

85.795.5 100.4 99.4 99 98.1

1.9

-4.4

-11-9.5 -9.3

-6.8 -6.7-5.8 -5.2

-4.3-3.1

0,0

20,0

40,0

60,0

80,0

100,0

120,0

-12,0

-10,0

-8,0

-6,0

-4,0

-2,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

General government net lending/borrowing

and public debt % GDP

Debt Net lending/borrowing

Total 138.4%

Households 61.8%

Non-financial corporations 76.6%

42

Spanish position within international trade

Spain ranks among the top 5 goods exporters

Share in world total exports(Spanish exports / world exports), %

Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness, January 2018

Share in world total exports

1 China 13.22 USA 9.1

3 Germany 8.4

4 Japan 4.0

5 Netherlands 3.6

…

16 SPAIN 1.8

43

Trade balance, January – November 2017 (% annual change)

Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness, January 2018

External sector

Imp

ort

s

Capital goods

Chemical products

Energy

Exports ▲ 9.1% 255,155.1 M€

Imports ▲ 11.1% 277,849.2 M€

BALANCE ▲ Deficit 39.2% -22,694.2 M€

▲ 31.1% energydeficit

Top 3 sectors(% of the total)

20.3

16.4

16.4

Exp

ort

s

Capital goods

Food

Automotive industry

21.4

15.0

13.2

Geographical distribution(% to the total)

Exports Imports

Europe 71.7 60.5

EU 65.8 54.8

America 10.7 11

Asia 9.3 20.2

China 2.3 8.5

Africa 6.4 7.9

Other 1.9 0.4

Energy: higher trade balance deficit due to higher

oil prices

44Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on EIA, Bloomberg, Eurostat and Club Español de la Energía, 2017 and 2018

The increase in oil prices affects trade deficit

(▲ imports value) and private consumption

Spain → Energy dependence (72.3%)

Almost 20 points above EU28 average

• ▲ demand in the context of global growth

• Supply restrictive policies

• Geopolitical conflicts

• ▼ supply of shale oil due to natural disasters

▲ oil prices, due to:

Tourism

45Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE and Turespaña, 2018

Tourism strength

2017

Main countries of origin Main destinations

UK

Germany

France

18.8 millions

11.9 millions

11.2 millions

Catalonia

Canary I.

Balearic I.

19 millions

14.2 millions

13.8 millions

2017

Record in

touristsarrivals

81.8 millions

▲ 8.6% YoY

Record in tourismexpenditure

86,823 millions €

▲ 12.2% YoY

Spain might be in the 2nd place in the international ranking,

following France and above USA


Spanish business sectorJanuary 1st, 2017, 3,282,346 companies in Spain

Companies by size

% to the total

Micro

(0-9)

Small

(10-49)

Medium

(50-249)

Large

(> 250)

Micro

(0-9)

Small

(10-49)

Medium

(50-249)

Large

(> 250)

Spain 93.11 5.99 0.78 0.12 94.83 4.44 0.6 0.12

Germany 82.86 14.18 2.45 0.52 82.16 14.83 2.53 0.47

France 94.46 4.59 0.78 0.16 95.26 3.98 0.62 0.14

Italy 94.27 5.11 0.53 0.08 95.2 4.23 0.49 0.08

Portugal 94.93 4.35 0.63 0.09 95.25 4.03 0.62 0.1

United Kingdom 89.29 8.79 1.55 0.37 88.94 9.25 1.48 0.32

2008 2017 (Eurostat forecasts)

In 2017 Q4, the creation of

companies in Spain fell by

3.8% (21,763 new

corporations).

In 2017 it decreased by

7.2% (94.998 new business)

-15.92.2 -15 2.8

23.8

8.3

-19.1

-18.3

1.6

-5.6

-2.8

-1.3

1.2

4.6

-2

4.1

9.5

2017 Q4Bt region% annual

change

Total

-3,8

Corporates in Catalonia


The creation of corporations in Catalonia decreased in November by 19%compared with the same month of 2016 (vs. -2% at a national level)

Companies whichhave moved their headquarters out of Catalonia between

Oct. 1st, 2018 and Dec. 31st 2017 3,208

The companies that have moved their

headquarters = 40% of its regional GDP

Between October the 1st and February 2018,

3,220 companies moved their headquartersout of Catalonia (85% of its marketcapitalization).

Interest rates and risk premium

48Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain, 2018

The risk premium is again below 90 bp, in minimum levels over the last 3 years

▼ Spanish 10 year yield < 1.40%.

Fitch: ▲ Spanish credit rating

BBB + (positive) → A- (stable)

▲ German 10 years yield

to around 0.73%.

Financial markets: Ibex 35

49Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on BME and Investing, 2018

Ibex 35 closed 2017 with annual

gains of 7.4%

2017 annual gains

Closing

2017

Gains

2017

IBEX 35 10.043,9 7,40%

IBEX 35 WITH DIV 26.939,6 11,25%

IBEX 35 MEDIUM CAP 15.060,0 3,97%

IBEX 35 SMALL CAP 6.580,2 31,44%

Spain’s position in international rankings

N. Zealand

Singapore

Denmark

SPAIN

50

Global Gender Gap Index 2017(144 countries)

Source: WEF, Nov. 2017

▲ 5( vs. 2016)

Korea

Sweden

Singapore

SPAIN

1

2

3

29

2018 Innovation Index(50 countries)

Source: Bloomberg, 2018

1

2

3

28

Doing Business 2018(119 countries)

Source: World Bank, 2017

▲4(vs. 2017)

Iceland

N. Zealand

Israel

SPAIN

1

2

3

25

Golden Age Index(34 OECD countries)

Source: PwC, 2017

=(vs. 2016)

USA

Switzerland

Canada

SPAIN

1

1

3

34

Global Entrepreneurship Index 2018(137 countries)

Source: GEDI, 2017

Iceland

Norway

Finland

SPAIN

1

2

3

24

Estonia

N. Zeleand

Switzerland

SPAIN

1

2

3

28

2017 International Tax Competitiveness Index (35 countries)

Source: Tax Foundation, 2017

=(vs. 2016)

=(vs. 2017)

▼ 1(vs. 2017)

www.circulodeempresarios.org

‘The quarterly report’, is a publication of the Círculo de Empresarios produced by its Department of the Economy, contains information and opinion from reliable sources. However the Círculo deEmpresarios does not guarantee its accuracy and does not take responsibility for any errors or omissions. This document is merely informative. As a result, the Círculo de Empresarios is not responsiblefor any uses that may be made of the publication. The opinions and estimates of the Department can bemodified without any warning.

Círculo de Empresarios - Informe Trimestral Situación de la … · 2018-02-05 · 4Q-17 and...

Documents

Transcript of Círculo de Empresarios - Informe Trimestral Situación de la … · 2018-02-05 · 4Q-17 and...