COVID-19 hospitalizations in New Mexico · New Mexico COVID- 19 Cases by Date of Specimen...
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic and Modeling Update July 21, 2020
Transcript of COVID-19 hospitalizations in New Mexico · New Mexico COVID- 19 Cases by Date of Specimen...
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic and Modeling
UpdateJuly 21, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
New Mexico has the 32nd highest prevalence in the United States
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 prevalence per 100,000 population
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.19.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.
Year-to-Date
3027.1
266.5
553.1411.4
822.8 807.5
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest New Mexico
Case
s pe
r 100
,000
Pop
ulat
ion
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.21.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
New Mexico COVID-19 Cases by Date of Specimen Collection – 7/21/20
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Statewide R-effective has decreased to 1.0.
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – July 20, 2020.
1.0
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Northeast R_effective 1.2 ↑
MetroR_effective 1.1 =
Southeast R_effective 1.0 =
SouthwestR_effective 0.9 ↓
NorthwestR_effective 0.8 ↓
Low Level Endemic <1.0
Approaching Low Level Endemic1.0-1.05
Requiring further mitigation >1.05
Key
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – July 20, 2020.
As of July 13, 2020
Region R-effective 95% Confidence Interval
State 1.0 [0.7, 1.4]
Metro 1.1 [0.6, 1.7]
Northeast 1.2 [0.0, 2.7]
Northwest 0.8 [0.0, 1.8]
Southeast 1.0 [0.0, 2.2]
Southwest 0.9 [0.2, 1.7]
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
The Northeast and Metro regions continue to have increasing daily case counts.
↑ Increasing case counts
↓ Decreasing case counts
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – July 20, 2020.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.21.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Metro Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average – July 21, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.21.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Northeast Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageJuly 21, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.21.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
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40
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120
140
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180
200
Northwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageJuly 21, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.21.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Southeast Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageJuly 21, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.21.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
Southwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageJuly 21, 2020
Without Detention Centers Detention Center 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Without Detention Centers)
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90+
Testing data through July 15, 2020
The number of tests performed has increased across all age groups, particularly the 20-29 year old age group in the last 3 weeks.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
The 20-29 and 30-39 year old age groups continue to make up the highest percentages of total cases(excludes out-of-state, federal and state detention and correctional facilities)
As of July 20, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
The 20-29 year old age group has made up the largest percentage of new cases each week starting in mid-June and made up a little over 25% of new cases investigated last week.
*Excludes out-of-state, federal and state detention and correctional facilities
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
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0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+
As of July 15, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
As of July 15, 2020
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
3/8/
2020
3/15
/202
0
3/22
/202
0
3/29
/202
0
4/5/
2020
4/12
/202
0
4/19
/202
0
4/26
/202
0
5/3/
2020
5/10
/202
0
5/17
/202
0
5/24
/202
0
5/31
/202
0
6/7/
2020
6/14
/202
0
6/21
/202
0
6/28
/202
0
7/5/
2020
7/12
/202
0
Week
Since the beginning of June, there has been an increase in Hispanic or Latino cases and decline in American Indian or Alaska Native cases in the 20-29 year old and 30-39 year old age groups
3/8/
2020
3/15
/202
0
3/22
/202
0
3/29
/202
0
4/5/
2020
4/12
/202
0
4/19
/202
0
4/26
/202
0
5/3/
2020
5/10
/202
0
5/17
/202
0
5/24
/202
0
5/31
/202
0
6/7/
2020
6/14
/202
0
6/21
/202
0
6/28
/202
0
7/5/
2020
7/12
/202
0
Week
20-29 year old 30-39 year old
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
As of July 17, 2020
Hospitalizations have increased since early July. Ventilator use has decreased and is currently at 22%.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
The 55-64 year old age group makes up the highest percentage of hospitalizations. There has not been much change in hospitalizations in each age group from week-to-week.
As of July 17, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Hospitalizations are declining in the NW Regions, but increasing in the Metro, SW, SE, and NE Regions
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 deaths have been decreasing since May. Deaths may begin to increase due to the recent spikes in cases across New Mexico
2
9
19
33
43
67 66
60
45 46
35 3330
1922 21
15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Num
ber o
f Dea
ths
Reporting through 7/17/2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Case fatality rates (CFR) across regions have slightly decreased since last week. The 75-84 and 85+ age groups continue to have the highest CFRs (21% and 39% respectively)
Rates have been age-adjusted to U.S. COVID-19 cases.Source: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division, reporting through 7.19.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7.3%
1.2%
4.2%
1.1%
2.6%
5.1%
3.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest New Mexico U.S.
Case
Fat
ality
Rat
e (a
ge-a
djus
ted)
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
New Mexico Status Updates
• Case count: Statewide, the increase in daily case counts may be slowing down.
• Hospitalizations: After a period of decline, hospitalizations are increasing
• Deaths: Deaths have been declining since mid-May.
• Social distancing: Cell phone data suggests the rise in mobility of New Mexico residents may be slowing down.
• Contact tracing: The median time to quarantine for contacts identified last week was 4.5 days.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Supplementary Slides
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Modeling Assumptions
Variable Measured Value Value as of 7.20.20
R_Effective Actual Measured Daily Value by key county
R_eff=1.0
Positive Test Multiplier Calculated by LANL 4.8
Hospitalization and Mortality Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected
Medical 0.3% ICU 0.2%Vent Rate 50% of ICUCrude Case Fatality Rate 4.8%
Length of Stay Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected
Medical 5 daysICU 14 days ICU on Vent 14 days
