County Population and Labor Force Projections:

New Jersey, 2008 to 2018

County ProjectionsProcedures

Apply state fertility and mortality rates by age-race-sex to individual counties.

Project net migration based on demand and supply of county labor force.

Distribute county net total migration to individual age-race-sex cohorts according to recent pattern.

Control sum of 21 counties to state totals at each step.

Population Projections for New JerseyOverview

2000-2008

2000-2008

2008-2018

2008-2018

• New Jersey’s 2008-2018 population growth will continue to lag behind the nation as a whole.

Rate of Population Growth: 1990-2018

1990-2000

1990-20000.85%

1.24%

0.37%

0.98%

0.38%

0.97%

County Population: 2008 and 2018

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

BER

MID ESS

MO

N

OC

EH

UD

CA

M

UN

IM

OR

PAS

BU

RM

ERSO

M

GLO ATL

CU

M

SUS

HU

NW

AR

CA

P

SAL

20082018

• Population is projected to increase in all counties except Cape May, with various growth rate, from 2008 to 2018.

Region (counties) 2000-2008 2008-2018

State Total 0.35% 0.38%

Northern (Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Union)

-0.07% 0.09%

Northwestern (Sussex, Warren) 0.71% 0.74%

Central (Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset)

0.64% 0.61%

Coastal (Atlantic, Cape May, Monmouth, Ocean)

0.78% 0.64%

Southern (Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, Salem)

0.65% 0.52%

Annualized Population Growth Rate by Region

Population Growth by Region

• The Coastal and Central regions will continue to lead the state’s population growth from 2008 to 2018.

• The rate of population growth in the Northern region is projected to be slower than other regions between 2008 and 2018.

Population Growth by Region

• The rural Northwestern counties will have substantial population growth from their small population bases.

• Coastal region’s Ocean County is projected to be the fastest growing county in New Jersey, followed by Gloucester County in the Southern region.

OCEAN10.5%

SUSSEX7.0%

BURLINGTON6.3%

MORRIS4.4%

ATLANTIC6.4%

SALEM1.5%

WARREN8.6%

MONMOUTH4.5%

HUNTERDON7.4%

BERGEN0.6%

MERCER4.7%

PASSAIC0.5%

ESSEX0.0%

MIDDLESEX5.8%

UNION0.4%

CUMBERLAND6.0%

SOMERSET8.9%

CAMDEN2.3%

GLOUCESTER9.8%

CAPE MAY-2.6%

HUDSON0.3%

Population Change (%) by County: New Jersey, 2008-2018

Percent Change

<0.5

0.6 - 4.0

4.1 - 6.0

6.1 - 8.0

>8.0

New Jersey = 3.9%

Population Projections by county• Bergen County will continue to be the state’s

most populous county.• By 2018, Ocean will replace Hudson as the

state’s fifth most populous county; while Morris (ranked 10th in 2008) and Passaic (ranked 9th in 2008) will exchange their population rankings in the state.

• Salem will continue to be the least populous county, and Cape May will be the only other county with less than 100,000 residents in New Jersey by 2018.

Population Projections for New JerseyOverview

Hispanics, Multiracial and Other Races are projected to grow fast.

1.2%5.4%

32.6%

33.3%

29.8%

23.1%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

White Black Asian Others 2+Races Hispanic

NJ Population Growth by Race: 2008-2018

Projections of County Population by Race

• Cape May County is projected to have the highest proportion of non-Hispanic whites in its population (86% in 2018).

• By 2018, non-Hispanic whites will account for just about one-third of Essex and Hudson counties’ residents.

• The share of non-Hispanic Whites in the state’s population is projected to decline gradually.

Projections of County Population by Race

• Approximately one-half (49.8%) of the state’s black population will be residing in just four counties by 2018: Essex, Camden, Union and Middlesex.

• Hunterdon, Morris, Ocean and Sussex counties will continue to have less than 5% blacks among their resident population.

• Essex County will continue to have the highest proportion of African Americans (41% by 2018).

Projections of County Population by Race

• The “other races” population is projected to grow faster than their white and black counterparts in every county.

• Middlesex, Bergen and Hudson counties are projected to account for nearly one-half of the state’s total “other races” population in 2018. Approximately one in every four (24%) Middlesex County residents will be persons of “other races” by 2018.

Projections of County Population by Race

County 2008 2018

Middlesex 19.5% 24.4%

Bergen 14.8% 19.0%

Somerset 12.9% 18.3%

Hudson 12.6% 15.0%

Cumberland 2.4% 2.6%

Ocean 2.0% 2.5%

Salem 1.3% 1.5%

Cape May 1.1% 1.6%

Proportion of “other races” Population in Selected Counties• However, the

proportion of “other races” population will continue to remain low in southern rural counties and in the coastal “retirement” communities.

OCEAN15.8

SUSSEX17.7

BURLINGTON33.8

MORRIS30.6

ATLANTIC42.1

SALEM24.9

WARREN23.2

MONMOUTH26.5

HUNTERDON20.6

BERGEN44.8

MERCER50.2

PASSAIC56.8

ESSEX66.6

MIDDLESEX56.1

UNION58.2

CUMBERLAND52.3

SOMERSET44

CAMDEN43.1

GLOUCESTER21.5

CAPE MAY14.3

HUDSON66.9

Percent of Nonwhite Population by County: New Jersey, 2018

Percent Nonwhite

< 20.0

20.1 - 29.0

29.1 - 43.0

43.1 - 55.0

> 55.0

New Jersey= 43.5%

Projections of County Population by Hispanic origin

• Hudson and Passaic counties will continue to have the largest number and highest proportion of Hispanic population in the state.

• Middlesex, Bergen, Essex and Union counties are also projected to have large number of Hispanics.

• Together, these six counties will account for about two-third (64.5%) of the state’s total Hispanics by 2018.

OCEAN9.1

SUSSEX9.7

BURLINGTON7.7

MORRIS14.3

ATLANTIC17.4

SALEM7.6

WARREN10.9

MONMOUTH11.9

HUNTERDON7.9

BERGEN19.5

MERCER16.9

PASSAIC39.7

ESSEX22.1

MIDDLESEX21.3

UNION31

CUMBERLAND29.3

SOMERSET15.7

CAMDEN15.6

GLOUCESTER5.3

CAPE MAY7.1

HUDSON40.2

Percent of Hispanic Population by County: New Jersey, 2018

Percent Hispanic

< 9.0

9.1 - 14.9

15.0 - 18.9

19.0 - 29.9

> 30.0

New Jersey= 19.3%

Population Projections for New JerseyOverview

New Jersey Population by Age: 2008 and 2018

2008 2018

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

5-9

15-19

25-29

35-39

45-49

55-59

65-69

75-79

85+

0200400600 200 400 600(Population in thousands)

Age

85+80-84

75-7970-74

65-6960-64

55-5950-54

45-4940-44

35-3930-34

25-2920-24

15-1910-14

5-90-4

Projections of County Population by Age

• Bergen, Ocean, Middlesex, and Monmouth counties will have more than 100,000 senior citizens (65 or older) each by 2018. Together, these four counties will account for 37.5% of the state’s total elderly population.

• Hudson County (11.8%) will have the lowest proportion of seniors among the state’s 21 counties by 2018.

• Cape May County is projected to have the highest proportion (26.2%) of elderly population in the state by 2018, followed by Ocean County (23.8%).

OCEAN23.8

SUSSEX15.6

BURLINGTON16

MORRIS16.2

ATLANTIC18.1

SALEM17.3

WARREN16.1

MONMOUTH16.5

HUNTERDON15.2

BERGEN17

MERCER14.6

PASSAIC14.9

ESSEX13

MIDDLESEX14.5

UNION13.8

CUMBERLAND14.8

SOMERSET15.6

CAMDEN15.2

GLOUCESTER15.3

CAPE MAY26.2

HUDSON11.8

Percent of Elderly Population by County: New Jersey, 2018

Percent Elderly

< 14.0

14.1 - 14.9

15.0 - 15.9

16.0 - 16.9

> 17.0

New Jersey= 15.8%

Projections of County Population by Sex

County 2008 2018

Cape May 92.6 92.0

Ocean 92.0 93.4

Essex 93.2 95.3

Sussex 99.2 99.3

Hunterdon 100.0 100.3

Cumberland 106.9 106.8

New Jersey 96.0 97.2

Sex Ratio (males per 100 females) in Selected Counties• Females will continue

to outnumber males in almost every county except Cumberland and Hunterdon.

• The sex ratio ranges from Cape May County’s 92.0 to Cumberland County’s 106.8 in the year 2018.

Labor Force Projections for New JerseyOverview

Growth of Population and Labor Force: New Jersey, 1980 - 2028

New Jersey’s civilian labor force is projected to grow slower than its population from 2008 to 2018.

16.5%5.2%

10.0%

11.8%

3.2%3.9%

2.9%

4.2%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

1980-1990

1990-2008

2008-2018

2018-2028

Population

Labor Force

Labor Force Projections by County

Civilian Labor Force by County: 2008 and 2018

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000

2018

2008

• Labor force is projected to increase in sixteen counties from 2008 to 2018, but will decline somewhat in Cape May, Essex, Hudson Passaic and Union.

Labor Force Projections by County

• Labor Force in Gloucester and Ocean counties is projected to grow faster than other counties during the 2008-2018 period.

• Parallel to the population growth pattern, the Coastal region will continue to lead the state’s labor force growth while growth rate in the Northern regions is projected to below average.

Region (counties) 2000-2008 2008-2018

State Total 0.90% 0.32%

Northern (Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Union)

0.57% 0.02%

Northwestern (Sussex, Warren) 1.28% 0.79%

Central (Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset)

0.96% 0.49%

Coastal (Atlantic, Cape May, Monmouth, Ocean)

1.34% 0.58%

Southern (Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, Salem)

1.18% 0.53%

Annualized Labor Force Growth Rate by Region

Labor Force Projections by Age

• As “baby boomers” continue to age, the share of the state’s “older workers” (labor force 55 years or older) is projected to reach 25.1% by 2018, from 19.1% in 2008.

• By 2018, the “older worker’s” share of the county labor force will range from 18.8% in Hudson County to more than 30% in Cape May and Ocean counties.

Labor Force Projections by Sex

• Women’s share of the state’s labor force is projected to virtually unchanged at 47% from 2008 to 2018.

• The projected proportion of females in the labor force ranged from 46% in Hunterdon County to 49% in Essex County as of 2018.

County Labor Force Projections by Race

• The nonwhite, especially the “other races” labor force, is projected to increase substantially faster than their white counterpart in all counties from 2008 to 2018.

• Consequently, the shares of whites in the labor force will shrink in each county while nonwhites (esp. “other races”) are projected to increase their shares.

County Labor Force Projections by Race

County 2008 2018

State Total 8.9% 11.2%

Middlesex 20.6% 24.4%

Bergen 16.3% 20.1%

Somerset 13.8% 19.3%

Cumberland 2.7% 2.9%

Ocean 2.2% 2.6%

Cape may 1.2% 1.7%

Salem 1.5% 1.5%

Proportion of “other races” Labor Force in Selected Counties

• The proportion of “Other Races” labor force varies by county. It ranges from 1.5% in Salem County to 24.4% in Middlesex County by the year 2018.

County Labor Force Projections by Hispanic origin

• Hispanic labor force is projected to grow faster than their non-Hispanic counterparts in all counties, except Hudson, from 2008 to 2018.

• Hispanics will account for about 95% of the state’s labor force growth between 2008 and 2018.

County Labor Force Projections by Hispanic origin

• About 69% of New Jersey’s Hispanic labor force were concentrated in six counties in 2008: Hudson, Passaic, Bergen, Middlesex, Essex and Union. These six counties will still have 65% of the state’s Hispanic labor force by 2018.

• The proportion of Hispanics in the labor force ranged from 3.6% in Gloucester County to 38.7% in Hudson County as of 2008. The proportion in these two counties will be 4.8% and 37.9%, respectively, in 2018.

THE END

Comments Welcomed

Contact:

Sen-Yuan Wu

@ 609-292-0077 (phone)

sywu@dol.state.nj.us (e-mail)

http://lwd.state.nj.us/labor/lpa/ (URL)