County Population and Labor Force Projections:

New Jersey, 2004 to 2014

NJSDC Network Meeting

June 6, 2007

County ProjectionsProcedures

Apply state fertility and mortality rates by age-race-sex to individual counties.

Project net migration based on demand and supply of county labor force.

Distribute county net total migration to individual age-race-sex cohorts according to recent pattern.

Control sum of 21 counties to state totals at each step.

Population Projections for New JerseyOverview

0.85%

1.24%

0.75%

1.01%

0.56%

0.85%

2000-2004

2000-2004

2004-2014

2004-2014

New Jersey’s 2004-2014 population growth will continue to lag behind the nation as a whole.

Rate of Population Growth: 1990-2014

1990-2000

1990-2000

County Population: 2004 and 2014

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

1000000

2004

2014

• Population is projected to increase in all counties, except Cape May, from 2004 to 2014.

Population Growth by Region

• The central and coastal regions will continue to lead the state’s population growth from 2004 to 2014.

• The rate of population growth in the northern region is projected to lag behind average between 2004 and 2014.

Region (counties) 1994-2004 2004-2014

State Total 0.81% 0.56%

Northern (Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Union)

0.51% 0.39%

Northwestern (Sussex, Warren) 1.19% 0.91%

Central (Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset)

1.22% 0.65%

Coastal (Atlantic, Cape May, Monmouth, Ocean)

1.26% 0.75%

Southern (Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, Salem)

0.62% 0. 66%

Annualized Population Growth Rate by Region

Population Growth by Region

• The rural northwestern counties will have substantial population growth from their small population bases.

• Coastal region’s Ocean County is projected to be the fastest growing county in New Jersey, followed by Gloucester County in the southern region.

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Percent Growth<4.0%4% - 5.8%5.9% - 8.0%>8.0%

Rate of Population Growth: New Jersey Counties, 2004-2014

State growth rate = 5.8%

Population Projections by county

• Bergen County will continue to be the state’s most populous county.

• By 2014, Middlesex will replace Essex as the state’s second most populous county; while Morris (ranked 10th in 2004) and Passaic (ranked 9th in 2004) will exchange their population rankings in the state.

• Salem County will be the only county with less than 100,000 residents in New Jersey by 2014.

Population Projections for New JerseyOverview

2.0%

6.7%

37.9% 38.2%

29.6%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%

White Black Other 2+Races Hispanic

NJ Population Growth by Race: 2004-2014

Hispanics and Other Races are projected to grow faster than their non-Hispanic and White and Black counterparts.

Projections of County Population by Race

• Cape May County is projected to continue to have the highest proportion of whites in its population (93.3% in 2014).

• Essex County will continue to have the lowest proportion of whites in its population (51.1% by 2014).

• White’s share of the state’s population is projected to decline gradually.

Projections of County Population by Race

• Approximately one-half (51%) of the state’s black population will be residing in just four counties by 2014: Essex, Union, Camden and Hudson.

• Sussex, Morris and Ocean counties will continue to have no more than 4% blacks among their resident population.

• Essex County will continue to have the highest proportion of African Americans (41.9% by 2014).

Projections of County Population by Race

• The “other races” population is projected to grow faster than their white and black counterparts in every county.

• Middlesex and Bergen counties are projected to account for 40% of the state’s total “other races” population in 2014. More than one in every five Middlesex County residents will be persons of “other races” by 2014.

Projections of County Population by Race

County 2004 2014

Middlesex 17.8% 23.2%

Bergen 13.4% 17.7%

Hudson 11.5% 12.7%

Somerset 11.2% 16.5%

Cumberland 2.4% 2.8%

Ocean 1.8% 2.4%

Salem 1.1% 1.6%

Cape May 0.9% 1.2%

Proportion of “other races” Population in Selected Counties• However, the

proportion of “other races” population will continue to remain low in southern rural counties and in the coastal “retirement” communities.

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Percent Nonwhite<10%10% - 20%20% - 30%>30%

Proportion of Nonwhite Population:New Jersey Counties, 2014

State average = 25.8%

Projections of County Population by Hispanic origin

• Hudson and Passaic counties will continue to have the largest number and highest proportion of Hispanic population in the state.

• Essex, Bergen, Union and Middlesex counties are also projected to have large number of Hispanics.

• Together, these six counties will account for 68% of the state’s total Hispanics by 2014.

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Percent Hispanic<10%10% - 20%20% - 30%>30%

Proportion of Hispanic Population:New Jersey Counties, 2014

State average = 18.2%

Population Projections for New JerseyOverview

New Jersey Population by Age: 2004 and 2014

2004 2014

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

5-9

15-19

25-29

35-39

45-49

55-59

65-69

75-79

85+

0200400600 200 400 600

(Population in thousands)

• The “baby boom” generation (aged 50-68 in 2014) and their children (born between 1977 and 1994) will continue to be the largest age cohorts of the state’s population.

Age

Projections of County Population by Age

• Bergen, Ocean, Middlesex and Essex counties will continue to have the largest number of senior citizens (65 or older). However, these four counties’ share of the state’s total elderly population will decline somewhat from 38.7% in 2004 to 36.5% in 2014.

• Hudson County (12.0%) will have the lowest proportion of seniors among the state’s 21 counties by 2014.

• Cape May County is projected to have the highest proportion (20.9%) of elderly population in the state by 2014, followed by Ocean County (19.3%).

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Percent Elderly Population<13%13% -14%14% - 15%15 % - 16%>16%

Proportion of Population 65 Years and Older: New Jersey Counties, 2014

Statewide average = 14.2%

Projections of County Population by Sex

County 2004 2014

Ocean 90.9 91.1

Cape May 92.9 92.1

Hudson 97.2 97.7

Sussex 98.4 98.1

Cumberland 104.6 104.4

New Jersey 94.9 95.2

Sex Ratio (males per 100 females) in Selected Counties

• Females will continue to outnumber males in every county except Cumberland.

• The sex ratio ranges from Ocean County’s 91.1 to Cumberland County’s 104.4 in the year 2014.

Labor Force Projections for New JerseyOverview

16.5%5.2%

6.9%

12.4%

6.8%

5.8%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

1980-1990

1990-2004

2004-2014

PopulationLabor Force

Growth of Population and Labor Force: New Jersey, 1980 - 2014

New Jersey’s civilian labor force is projected to grow faster than its population from 2004 to 2014.

Labor Force Projections by County

Civilian Labor Force by County: 2004 and 2014

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000

2014

2004

• Labor force is projected to increase in every county from 2004 to 2014.

Labor Force Projections by County

• Labor Force in Ocean and Gloucester counties is projected to grow faster than other counties during the 2004-2014 period.

• Parallel to the population growth pattern, the coastal region will continue to lead the state’s labor force growth while growth in the northern and southern regions is projected to accelerate.

Region (counties) 1990-2004 2004-2014

State Total 0.48% 0.66%

Northern (Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Union)

-0.05% 0.43%

Northwestern (Sussex, Warren) 1.27% 1.01%

Central (Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset)

0.82% 0.59%

Coastal (Atlantic, Cape May, Monmouth, Ocean)

1.16% 1.10%

Southern (Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, Salem)

0.70% 0.81%

Annualized Labor Force Growth Rate by Region

Labor Force Projections by Age

• As “baby boomers” continue to age, the share of the state’s “older workers” (labor force 55 years or older) is projected to reach 21.4% by 2014, from 16.8% in 2004.

• By 2014, the “older worker’s” share of the county labor force will range from 18.7% in Hudson County to 27.5% in Cape May County.

Labor Force Projections by Sex

• Women’s share of the state’s labor force is projected to increase gradually from 46.6% in 2004 to 47.2% in 2014.

• The projected proportion of females in the labor force ranged from 45.4% in Morris County to 50.0% in Essex County as of 2014.

County Labor Force Projections by Race

• The nonwhite, especially the “other races” labor force, is projected to increase substantially faster than their white counterpart in all counties from 2004 to 2014.

• Consequently, the shares of whites in the labor force will shrink in each county while nonwhites (esp. “other races”) are projected to increase their shares.

County Labor Force Projections by Race

County 2004 2014

State Total 7.0% 9.2%

Middlesex 16.7% 21.8%

Bergen 12.6% 17.1%

Somerset 10.0% 15.0%

Ocean 1.8% 2.4%

Salem 1.3% 1.8%

Cape May 0.9% 1.3%

Proportion of “other races” Labor Force in Selected Counties• The proportion of

“Other Races” labor force varies by county. It ranges from 1.3% in Cape May County to 21.8% in Middlesex County by the year 2014.

County Labor Force Projections by Hispanic origin

• Hispanic labor force is projected to grow faster than their non-Hispanic counterparts in all counties from 2004 to 2014.

• Hispanics will account for about two-thirds (66.2%) of the state’s labor force growth between 2004 and 2014.

County Labor Force Projections by Hispanic origin

• Approximately 70% of New Jersey’s Hispanic labor force were concentrated in six counties in 2004: Hudson, Passaic, Bergen, Union, Middlesex and Essex. These six counties will still have 67% of the state’s Hispanic labor force by 2014.

• The proportion of Hispanics in the labor force ranged from 2.7% in Gloucester County to 40.9% in Hudson County as of 2004. The proportion in these two counties will increase to 3.6% and 43.5%, respectively, in 2014.

THE END

Comments Welcomed

Contact:

Sen-Yuan Wu

@ 609-292-0077 (phone)

sywu@dol.state.nj.us (e-mail)

www.nj.gov/labor/lra (URL)