Counting output in ways that matter: lessons from Britain’s Railways … or…

Counting output in ways that matter: lessons from

Britain’s Railways…or…

Dr Tim Leunig & Professor Nick Crafts

http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/

http://www.publicservices.ac.uk/


Why have commuters been neglected since 1945?

Dr Tim Leunig & Professor Nick Crafts




Measuring output

• Passenger journeys

• Passenger miles

Dr Tim LeunigOverhead 3

Counting output correctly



Measuring output

• Passenger journeys

• Passenger miles

• Rather crude, and not quality adjusted





Counting output correctly Dr Tim LeunigOverhead 6

Aspects of quality

• Are the trains safe?

• Are the trains fast?

• Are the trains frequent?

• Are the trains on time?

• Can I get a seat?

• Are the sandwiches any good?




Fast v frequent

• People want to get from origin to destination, “quickly”

• “Quickly” means the time from when they want to leave until actual arrival

• Train speed and frequency are therefore substitutes and need to be considered together





Methodology (1)

• Computerise the railway timetable

• Find out how speeds and frequency change over time

• Take into account that trains at some times of day are more important than at others





How many people want to travel at different times?

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Which train to catch?

• Preferred time of travel exogenous

• Take the first train after the time you want to travel

• Except do not take a train that will be overtaken by a later train mid-journey

• No endogeneity of preferred time of travel as a result of train speeds





Allocating people to trains




Which journeys to include?

• Representative selection?

• Major journeys?





Which journeys matter?





Which journeys to include

• Representative selection?

• Major journeys?

• Journeys of different types





5 samples

• Short commuter routes (Surbiton)

• Long commuter routes (Cambridge)

• Long distance routes (Leeds)

• Non-London routes

• Airport connections





Overall result

• Since 1945, long distance trains have become faster

• Shorter distance commuter trains got faster until the earlier 1970s, and have since slowed down to their 1950 levels again

Counting output correctly Dr Tim LeunigOverhead 18



Commuter line quantity

• 375 million commuter journeys into Central London each year, 60m from Waterloo alone





Passengers per station





The value of time

• DoT methodology: modal-specific wage values for in work time, standardised for other time

• Rail work time £42/hour

• Commuting time all modes £5.75

• Commuting rail time would be £8

• Might be higher into SW London?Dr Tim LeunigOverhead 21



“Lost” value

• Counterfactual: commuter trains get faster at the same rate as non-commuter trains since 1950

• eg Surbiton-Waterloo 14 mins inc waiting (51mph total, 71mph IV on current frequency)

• Value @£8/hr: £440m (npv £6bn)Dr Tim LeunigOverhead 22



So why hasn’t it happened?

• Politics?

• Technical difficulties?




Commuter line politics

• In commuter constituencies, lots of people commute: salience

• Non-commuting home owners gain as house prices reflect service

• Therefore you might expect government to improve these lines





Commuter line politics

• Most London commuter constituencies vote Conservative

• And some are politically marginal – Croydon, North Kent, South Essex





Commuter election results

Brighton Con Con Con Con Con Lab/C Lab/C Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Lab Lab Lab

Chelmsford Lab Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con

Croydon Lab Con Con Con Con Con Lab Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Lab Lab Con

Reading Lab Lab Lab/C Lab Con Con Lab Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Lab Lab Lab/C

St.Albans Lab Lab Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Lab Lab Con

Surbiton Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con LD LD LD

Wimbledon Lab Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Lab Lab Con

Woking Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con

1945 1950 1951 1955 1959 1964 1966 1970 1974 1974.5 1979 1983 1987 1992 1997 2001 2005





Can commuter routes get faster?

• Improve signalling to run more trains per hour (as in 1912)

• Lighter trains accelerate more quickly

• More doors to speed boarding

• Tunnel mainline routes into the centre, (e.g. Waterloo – Bank – Liverpool St) – big time savings





Why choose HST instead?

• Glamour? Announcing that Britain will enter the High Speed Era with the CTRL or the WCML may get better headlines than announcing 5 minutes off the time to East Croydon.





Evening Standard

• “The Queen re-ignited the great British love affair with the railways last night as she opened the revitalised St.Pancras station.”

• “History was made at the new St.Pancras International today when the first Eurostar train left for Brussels.”





Will it happen?

• Eddington talked about building what people will use

• Crossrail is in London (although does not seem designed to maximise output:cost ratio)





Questions and comments?




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Cost of waiting: nominal to IVT disutility equivalence

The glamour of high speed trains – or why is my train to work so slow?



Counting output in ways that matter: lessons from Britain’s Railways … or…

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