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Cotswolds@50… an enduring landscape?Richard Wakeford

March 2016

+Treasured in the past; treasured in the future

+“The AONB has always been special; we want it to remain so”

+No development here in the AONB, thank you!

+So, what did legislators intend AONB designation to provide? 1931: Cotswolds mentioned in the report of the National

Parks Committee, established by Ramsay MacDonald Unwin “need not only to protect wild land, but also the

conservation of historic villages and typical pieces of scenery” such as parts of the Cotswolds

Post war report: Cotswolds a possible conservation area of “high landscape quality, scientific interest and recreational value”

1947 Act creates the AONB concept – “land which appears to be of such outstanding natural beauty that

the provisions of the Act shall apply thereto” principal powers/duties around development planning, “landscape

enhancement” and public access

+Driver of the Cotswolds designation: natural landscape or built environment?

CPRE (1957): designation needed urgently “to prevent further disfiguring developments in the area”

Nearly 10 years of local engagement about boundaries eg: ‘although the two villages were attractive, the surrounding

country was not of sufficient high quality for inclusion’ ‘the whole area had become so developed that it could hardly

claim to being a predominantly natural landscape’

July 1966; England won the World Cup 19th August 1966: amidst the celebrations the Cotswolds

designation confirmed – still the second most extensive protected landscape

+Designation descriptions 1966

The most striking feature of the Cotswolds is the great limestone escarpment which overlooks the Vales of Gloucester and Evesham.

The remainder is a pleasant pastoral region, with high undulating plateau and bare upland alternating with deep narrow valleys, well-wooded, and traversed by shallow, rapid streams.

The area contains some of the most beautiful villages in Britain.

The Cotswolds have considerable wildlife interest. A number of sites have been scheduled … as Sites of Special Scientific Interest.

The Cotswolds are generally regarded by ecologists as representing the westerly limit of natural beechwood in Great Britain. The area is interesting on this account, and for its characteristic limestone flora and insects.

+Characteristic drystone walls didn’t get a mention in the 1966 designation!

+The relevance of land management No mention of dry stone walls until 1982 boundary review! 1982 criteria for inclusion:

landscape character (land form, tree cover, natural flora etc) ‘Cotswold’ characteristics, eg. oolitic limestone building materials, stone

slate roofs, drystone walls and Cotswold vernacular building types

So, does farming and land management have anything to do with the outstanding landscape?

Does land management have any relevance in making land appear to be of such outstanding natural beauty that the provisions of legislation should apply?

Or is landscape purely the underlying topology and the natural vegetation?

+Land management in the mid 20th Century Farms in one Cotswolds borders survey area (in the

1940s): Average farm size 109 acres Largest farm 525 acres 89% of fields less than 20 acres Agriculture 31% of the occupied population

Post war change driven by Agriculture Act provisions, technological advances, and government capital grants to make agriculture more efficient

Landscape change driven by field amalgamation, removal of walls and hedges, land drainage and conversion of pasture to arable

+Land management in the late 20th Century – since formal designation membership of the EEC; Arable Area Payments

incentivise change (eg £246 per hectare just to grow oil seed rape)

further intensification and an increase in arable footprint to maximise crop area - only off-set by set-aside

some reversal with the abandonment of area payments and the introduction of agri-environment schemes

continuing loss of field boundaries due to abandonment; walls and hedges not needed to keep crops in the field -> essentially redundant and too expensive to maintain

+New colours, old spots

+Cotswolds@50 will explore landscape change objectively

+… and the built environment too

+Landscape impacts of new development

+Even replacement farmhouses

+Looking forward therefore…

What will shape the future landscape? And how will people benefit from the ecosystems

services that landscape provides?

Start from current trends Land management Equine businesses The wider economy

What future landscape might be envisaged?

+Trends in the farming and forestry business sectors Less maize grown; less rough grazing; reducing

livestock numbers (down a quarter in 6 years) More spring barley; more on-farm renewable energy Fewer large commercial farms; more smaller non-

commercial farms Land value tripled in a decade Continuing decline in farm labour force Shift from coniferous to broadleaved woodland, but

very little new woodland planting

+The equine business sector (based on estimated data) Equine sector in perspective:

farm gate income estimated at £111m equestrian sector gross output £76m

1646 farm holdings wide range of equestrian businesses – racehorse training

through to riding schools and polo clubs

Equine sector probably employs about 1,000 directly and 2,000-4,000 indirectly

+Impact of diversified land management on landscape

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+Business in the rural Cotswolds

Almost 10,000 businesses in the AONB (cf 1,646 farm holdings) 18% professional, scientific and technical 14% agriculture, forestry and fishing 14% wholesale, retail and repair of motor vehicles 11% construction

Over 50,000 employed in the AONB (many relatively small businesses)

Over 1,000 tourism businesses (and more not registered) serving 23 million visitors a year, generating revenue of £425m a year

Double the proportion of self employed people than in Great Britain as a whole

+Government policy to make more of rural potential?

+Defra’s view of what protected landscape areas can foster Havens for nature, beacons for wildlife

Drivers of the economy

National wellbeing

+… and more specifically

Increase youth volunteering (national citizen service)

Inspire more young people through nature

Promote world class culture in NPs

Achieve a better environment (natural capital, catchment management)

Broaden visitor base

New apprenticeships

Promote best of British food

Improve wellbeing (promote outdoor recreation- walking & cycling - and green prescriptions)

+And what will farming businesses need to address in the longer term? The next CAP reform (or not?); and TTIP (or not?) Need to optimise resource yields in renewable flows – eg a bioeconomy

(lots of current research under way) and reduced food waste Not only energy efficiency - but urgent action to address the nitrogen

cycle and reduce emissions of methane and nitrous oxide More trees needed for mitigation under LULUCF climate change action Changing climate demands more resilience – eg flood alleviation

measures on a catchment basis Global population growth (in number and wealth) demands more food;

will new crop varieties keep up with demand? Plant, tree and animal disease? Driverless tractors and big data uses

+In the longer term; still a landscape of outstanding natural beauty? Continuing land investment => owners; tenants; contractors Genetically modified crops? Pest resistant plant strains, reducing chemical use Higher edible yields per cultivated hectare How much livestock outside at all? Fast growing trees for carbon capture Balance different ways of using solar energy (food, biofuels, trees

or solar arrays?)

This year the AONB Board will publish the latest Landscape Strategy and Guidelines; how different will 2040 version be?

We have some choices in shaping tomorrow’s world