Core elements of Foresight in Europe and Latin America Rafael Popper –...

Core elements of Foresight in

Europe and Latin AmericaRafael Popper – [email protected]

PREST - Manchester Institute of innovation Research, University of Manchester

EULAKSFLACSO, México 2008

About the Manchester Institute of About the Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (PREST)Innovation Research (PREST)

Our Research is broadly grouped into five key themes that reflect both strengths of the Institute and areas of potential growth:

• Technology strategy and innovation management, covering a wide range of topics relating to R&D, innovation strategy, internationalisation and tacit knowledge. There is particular interest in themes such as innovation in defence and security and in medical innovation

• Services and organisational innovation reflecting Manchester's outstanding track record of research in this field. This covers a range of topics including measurement, management and outsourcing

• Science, innovation policy and strategic intelligence draws on the extensive and long-standing reputation of Manchester in this field and developments in key areas such as foresight and evaluation of technology programmes

• Innovation and sustainability is a rapidly growing area of activity which covers environmental management, sustainable consumption and recycling. There is close collaboration with colleagues at the Tyndall Centre in Manchester

• Innovation, innovation systems and economic development covering familiar issues such as innovation and national and regional development as well as important emerging themes such as innovation as a sustainable route out of poverty in developing economies. Manchester has a particularly outstanding record in the understanding of the dynamics of innovation through evolutionary approaches.

http://www.e-elgar.co.uk/Bookentry_Main.lasso?

id=3977

Foresight has emerged as a key instrument for the development and implementation of research and innovation policy.

The main focus of activity has been at national level as governments have sought to:

• set priorities;

• build networks between science and industry;

• change the administrative culture & research systems and;

• encompass structured debates with wider participation leading to the creation of common visions.

What is foresight?

• Broadly speaking…

• Foresight is not about:

– forecasting by experts

• Foresight is more about:

– trandisciplinarity

– long term thinking

– engagement with decision-makers

– drawing upon wide networks of expertise

– creating new action networks

– extending the breadth and depth of the knowledge base for decision-making

– …R. Popper (2008)

Pol. Par.

Pro.

F

Year Country Exercise/Programme Method(s)

Since

1971 Japan 1st to 4th STA surveys Delphi

Japan 5th STA survey Delphi 1991

USA Critical Technologies Others

New Zealand Public Good Science Fund Others 1992

Germany BMFT, T 21 Others

South Korea Foresight Exercise Others 1993

Germany Delphi ’93 Delphi

UK 1st TF Programme Delphi + Others 1994

France Technology Delphi Delphi

1995 France 100 Key Technologies Others

Japan–Germany Mini-Delphi Delphi

Austria Delphi Austria Delphi

Japan 6th STA survey Delphi 1996

Australia Matching S&T to futures needs Others

Spain ANEP Delphi + Others

Hungary TF Programme (TEP) Delphi + Others

Netherlands Technology Radar Others 1997

Finland SITRA Foresight Others

South Africa Foresight Exercise Delphi + Others

Germany Delphi ’98 Delphi

Ireland Technology Foresight Ireland Others 1998

New Zealand Foresight Exercise Others

UK 2nd UK Foresight Programme Others

Sweden 1st Swedish Foresight Others

Spain OPTI Technology Foresight Delphi

South Korea Korean Technology Delphi Delphi

Thailand ICT Foresight Delphi + Others

1999

China TF of Priority Industries Delphi + Others

Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc.

Year Country Exercise/Programme Method(s)

Japan 7th STA Survey Delphi

Brazil Prospectar Delphi

Brazil TFP Brazil (UNIDO/MDIC) Delphi + Others

France 2nd 100 Key Technologies Others

2000

Portugal ET2000 Others

Venezuela TFP Venezuela 1st cycle Delphi + Others

Chile TFP Chile Delphi

Germany FUTUR Others 2001

Czech Republic TF Exercise Others

Turkey Vision 2023 Delphi + Others

Colombia TFP Colombia 1st cycle Delphi + Others

UK 3rd UK Foresight Programme Others

Cyprus, Estonia, Malta eForesee Others

Denmark National TF Denmark Others

2002

USA NIH Roadmap USA Others

China TF Towards 2020 Delphi + Others

Greece Technology Foresight Greece Others

Norway Research Council 2020 studies Others 2003

Sweden 2nd Swedish TF Others

Japan 8th Japanese Programme Delphi + Others

South Korea Korea 2030 Delphi + Others

Ukraine Ukranian TF Programme Delphi + Others

France FuturRIS Others

France AGORA Others

Venezuela TFP Venezuela 2nd cycle Others

2004

Russia Key Technologies Others

Colombia TFP Colombia 2nd cycle Delphi + Others

Brazil Brazil 3 Moments Delphi + Others

Romania Romanian S&T Foresight Delphi + Others

Finland Finnsight Others

Luxembourg FNR Foresight Others

2005

USA 21st Century Challenges GAO Others

Finland SITRA Foresight Others 2006

Poland Poland 2020 – TF Programme Delphi + Others

Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc.

Evolution of Foresight Programmes/Exercises

Why?

ManchesterInstitute of InnovationResearch

Rationale 1: Directing or prioritising investment in STI (Setting general research directions by identifying previously unknown opportunities)

• Informing funding and investment priorities, including direct prioritisation exercises;

• Eliciting the research and innovation agenda within a previously defined field;

• Reorienting the science and innovation system to match national needs, particularly in the case of transition economies;

• Helping to benchmark the national science and innovation system in terms of areas of strength and weakness, and to identify competitive threats and collaborative opportunities;

• Raising the profile of science and innovation in government as means of attracting investment.


Rationale 2: Building new networks and linkages around a common vision

• Building networks and strengthening communities around shared problems (especially where work on these problems has been compartmentalised and is lacking a common language);

• Building trust between participants unused to working together;

• Aiding collaboration across administrative and epistemic boundaries;

• Highlighting interdisciplinary opportunities.


Rationale 3: Extending the breadth of knowledge and visions in relation to the future

• Increasing understanding and changing mindsets, especially about future opportunities and challenges;

• Providing anticipatory intelligence to system actors as to the main directions, agents, and rapidity of change;

• Building visions of the future that can help actors recognise more or less desirable paths of development and the choices that help determine these.


Rationale 4: Bringing new actors into the strategic debate

• Increasing the number and involvement of

system actors in decision-making, both to

access a wider pool of knowledge and to

achieve more democratic legitimacy in the

policy process;

• Extending the range of types of actor

participating in decision-making relating to

science, technology and innovation issues.


Rationale 5: Improving policy-making and strategy formation in areas where science and

innovation play a significant role

• Informing policy and public debates in these areas;

• Improve policy implementation by enabling informed “buy-in” to decision-making processes (for example, so that participants in foresight activities are able to use the understanding acquired here to argue the case for change, and to bring it to bear in more specialised areas than the Programme as a whole has been able to).


How?


Foresight should be carefully planned (Popper, 2008)

Pre-Foresight

RationalesSponsor(s)ObjectivesOrientationResources- Core team *- Time- Money- Infrastructure- Cultural- PoliticalApproachesTime horizonMethodologyWorkplan- Activities- Tasks- DeliverablesScope- Context- Coverage

Recruitment

Project team *- skillsPartners Sub-contractorsSteering GroupExperts- Thematic- Sectoral- Regional- National- InternationalChampions- Thematic- …InternationalPanelsMethodologistFacilitatorsRapporteurs

Step 1: scanning and understanding major S&T developments, trends and issues

Step 2: mobilising and engaging key stakeholders

Step 3: generating (new) knowledge through the exploration, analysis and anticipation of possible futures

Step 4: shaping the future through strategic planning

Step 5: evaluating

Generation

Existing knowledge is amalgamated, analysed and synthesised Tacit knowledge is codifiedNew knowledge is generated (e.g. elucidation of emerging issues, creation of new visions and images of the future, etc.)

Action

Advising- Strategies- Policy Options- Recommendations- …

Transforming- Networking- Policy-making- Decision-making- …

Renewal

Learning- Process- ProductsEvaluation- Impacts - Efficiency - AppropriatenessDissemination- Shared Visions- Foresight Culture- …

KNOWLEDGE

The Foresight Diamond

R. Popper (2008)R. Popper (2008)

Meta principles of foresight

1. ContextualisedForesight needs to be rooted in the context within which it is to be implemented be it national, regional, local, corporate, organisational;

2. CredibleThe robustness of the evidence and the reputation of those presenting and validating it should be such that results are treated as credible;

3. DiversedForesight must keep an ear open to unpopular views and not rush to a consensus; relevant (and seemingly less relevant) stakeholders should be engaged wherever possible, either in the exercise itself or in pre- and post-foresight activities;

4. SystematicA foresight exercise should develop and follow a systematic approach which can easily be replicated. Methods should as far as possible allow comparisons / benchmarking and yield reproducible results;

5. Far-sightedThere is little point to foresight which does not include a creative element that is explicitly future-oriented and moves beyond mere zeitgeist;

Source: Georghiou, Cassingena, Keenan, Miles and Popper (2008) The Handbook of Technology Foresight

Meta principles of foresight

6. TransparentThe objectives of an exercise should be clear to all; the design of the process, the sources of information and the means used to analyse data should all be available to those expected to participate and make use of the results;

7. EmbeddedForesight’s impact endures where a culture for foresight is able to spread;

8. EngagedThe commitment of those capable of acting upon the results should be secured in advance;

9. EfficientIn its use of public (or private funds) foresight should be carried out with due economy and efficiency but be adequately resourced to be effective;

10. AdaptiveForesight should be adaptive, drawing upon lessons from previous and current activity to meet evolving demands.

Source: Georghiou, Cassingena, Keenan, Miles and Popper (2008) The Handbook of Technology Foresight

Who?


http://prest.mbs.ac.uk/efmn/efmn_global_foresight_outlook_gfo_2007.pdfhttp://prest.mbs.ac.uk/efmn/efmn_global_foresight_outlook_gfo_2007.pdf

557

72

62

75 109

7

2439

6812

11

29

15

570

0

400

800

Level 0 + Level 1 Level 2 + Level 3

EU27+ Trans-Europe

North America Latin America

Asia Africa

Oceania

Mapping Sample

Over 1600 cases

R. Popper (2008)

frequency+

levels+

groupings+

scale…

R. Popper (2008)

EU27+ (450 cases)

0% 50% 100%

Government

Research

Business

NGOs

IGO

Other sponsors

General Public

sponsors

Trans-Europe (61 cases)

0% 50% 100%

Government

Research

Business

NGOs

IGO

Other sponsors

General Public

North America (108 cases)

0% 50% 100%

Government

Research

Business

NGOs

IGO

Other sponsors

General Public

Latin America (24 cases)

0% 50% 100%

Government

Research

Business

NGOs

IGO

Other sponsors

General Public

Asia (47 cases)

0% 50% 100%

Government

Research

Business

NGOs

IGO

Other sponsors

General Public

Africa (9 cases)

0% 50% 100%

Government

Research

Business

NGOs

IGO

Other sponsors

General Public

Oceania (13 cases)

0% 50% 100%

Government

Research

Business

NGOs

IGO

Other sponsors

General Public

Source: Popper et al (2007)

EU27+ (515 cases)

0% 50% 100%

Government Agencies / Dep.

Research Community

Firms

Trade Bodies / Industrial Fed.

Other target audiences

Intermediary organizations

NGOs

Trades Unions

audiences


0% 50% 100%


Research Community

Firms




NGOs

Trades Unions


0% 50% 100%


Research Community

Firms




NGOs

Trades Unions


0% 50% 100%


Research Community

Firms




NGOs

Trades Unions

Asia (60 cases)

0% 50% 100%


Research Community

Firms




NGOs

Trades Unions

Africa (10 cases)

0% 50% 100%


Research Community

Firms




NGOs

Trades Unions

Oceania (13 cases)

0% 50% 100%


Research Community

Firms




NGOs

Trades Unions


Global foresight practices (1/3)Global foresight practices (1/3)

The main sponsor of foresight is the

Government

The main users of foresight are the

Gov. depts/agenciesResearch Community

Firms

Global foresight practices (2/3) Global foresight practices (2/3)

EU27+ (423 cases)

1%

10%

9%

7%

26%

23%

23%

0% 50%

2051-2100

2031-2050

2026-2030

2021-2025

2016-2020

2011-2015

2010

time horizon


0%

5%

11%

5%

25%

29%

24%

0% 50%

2051-2100

2031-2050

2026-2030

2021-2025

2016-2020

2011-2015

2010


0%

4%

10%

11%

10%

21%

43%

0% 50%

2051-2100

2031-2050

2026-2030

2021-2025

2016-2020

2011-2015

2010


0%

0%

0%

10%

38%

10%

43%

0% 50%

2051-2100

2031-2050

2026-2030

2021-2025

2016-2020

2011-2015

2010

Asia (44 cases)

2%

5%

9%

9%

36%

20%

18%

0% 50%

2051-2100

2031-2050

2026-2030

2021-2025

2016-2020

2011-2015

2010

Africa (10 cases)

0%

0%

10%

10%

60%

0%

20%

0% 50%

2051-2100

2031-2050

2026-2030

2021-2025

2016-2020

2011-2015

2010

Oceania (11 cases)

0%

9%

0%

18%

18%

27%

27%

0% 50%

2051-2100

2031-2050

2026-2030

2021-2025

2016-2020

2011-2015

2010


~73%

~79% ~74%

~90% ~74%

~72% ~80%

EU27+ (517 cases)

0% 50% 100%

National

Sub-national

Transborder

Supra national

Europe

territorial scope


0% 50% 100%

National

Sub-national

Transborder

Supra national

Europe


0% 50% 100%

National

Sub-national

Transborder

Supra national

Europe


0% 50% 100%

National

Sub-national

Transborder

Supra national

Europe

Asia (65 cases)

0% 50% 100%

National

Sub-national

Transborder

Supra national

Europe

Africa (11 cases)

0% 50% 100%

National

Sub-national

Transborder

Supra national

Europe

Oceania (15 cases)

0% 50% 100%

National

Sub-national

Transborder

Supra national

Europe


The most common time horizons are

10,15,20 yearsThe most common territorial scopes are

NationalSub-national

Guides & HandbooksGuides & Handbooks• The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice (2008)

• Practical Guide to Research Infrastructure Foresight (2007)

• Global Foresight Outlook (2007)

http://prest.mbs.ac.uk/foresight/rif_guide.pdf

http://prest.mbs.ac.uk/efmn/gfo_2007.pdf• The Knowledge Society Foresight Handbook

• Practical Guide to Regional Foresight (translated into EU languages)


Foresight in UNIDO TFLAC

• TFP created in 1999• Main actors

– UNIDO– Governmental agencies and departments

• Main objectives– Foresight culture– High-level political awareness– Industrial & technological development

• Main activities– Capacity building / Training courses– Seminars / conferences– Sectoral / industrial exercises– Publications

• Main countries– Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay,

Venezuela

EU

Foresight in Mexico

• Main actors– Javier Barros Sierra Foundation– College of Mexico– Autonomous University of Mexico– Technological Institute of Monterrey

• Foresight outlook– In the 1980s Mexico led the first Latin initiative to promote the

integration of foresight efforts in many countries, the so-called Technological Prospective for Latin America (TEPLA), which helped to translate selected European foresight experiences into Spanish.

– In 1990s the country showed a decline in regional leadership – Since 2000 foresight work has begun to recover.– Current activities are mainly related to entrepreneurial foresight and

efforts of public institutions focused on education, science and technology.

– There is also a Mexican node of the Millennium Project, a chapter of the World Futures Society (WFS) and an online journal for prospective studies which has provided a space for disseminating experiences in Spanish

– capacity-building and teaching programmes – Whilst Mexico has a long tradition in forecasting and futures research, it

has yet to organise a fully-fledged national foresight programme.

Foresight in Argentina

• TFP created in 2000• Main actors

– Secretary for Science & Technology - SECyT– UNIDO link

• Main activities1. Learning from international experiences

2. diagnostic studies in 3 sectors: Biotechnology, Chemical and Textile industries

3. Technology Foresight Observatory (created in 2000 but frozen in 2001)

4. (most recent) Strategic Middle Term Plan of STI for 2015 (not called foresight!)

• started in October 2003, completed in 2005

• coordinated by the National Observatory of Science, Technology and Productive Innovation (ONCTIP)

• Panels, Survey, workshops, prioritisation of key areas

• Over 4,000 people involved

• Main goals:

– To strengthen & enlarge the National System of STI

– To improve quality, efficiency & pertinence of S&T activities

– To increase S&T expenditure to 1% of the GDP in 2007

– To increase participation of the private sector to the 0.50% of the GDP

EU

Foresight in Chile

• TFP Created in 2001• Main actor

– Ministry of Economy• Main objectives

– discovery pathways toward a desired future– identification of strategies or action plan for its achievement.

• Main methods– Brainstorming– Delphi

• Main activities– ‘e-ducation industry’: ICT applied to Education– aquaculture industry– wine production and exports– biotechnology applied to fruits and horticulture– biotechnology applied to forest industry– the Chilean software industry.

EU

Foresight in Cuba

• Main actor– Cuban Observatory of Science and Technology (OCCyT)

• Main objectives– Monitoring emerging technologies – developing foresight exercises in key strategic sectors– developing human capital with proactive attitudes as opposed

to reactive• Main methods

– Technology watch (trends & disruptions)– Brainstorming– Delphi

• Main activities– Health– Biotechnology– Information technology

Foresight in Peru

• Main actors– UNIDO link since 2001– CONCYTEC since 2002– Consortium Prospective Peru (CPP) since 2002

• Main objectives– Build foresight capabilities– Support exercises in strategic sectors (mainly pilots!)– Strengthen links with international foresight practitioners

• Main methods– Brainstorming– SWOT– Scenarios– Cross-impact

• Main activities– textile and clothing, biotechnology and agriculture, sea

products and water, new materials, energy, housing and construction and tourism

EU

Foresight in Uruguay

• Main actors– Presidency – UNIDO link (2000)– Various ministries

• Main objectives– competitive industrialization of the country– integration of knowledge in the value chain

• Main methods– Brainstorming– Surveys– Panels– Delphi– Scenarios & recommendations

• Main activities– Energy– Transport and logistic– Biotechnology & agriculture

Foresight in Venezuela• Main actors

– MCT, CENDES, IESA– UNIDO link– UCV, UNEFM, UNEFA, UNESR, 4-sight-group

• Main objectives– Building capabilities & foresight culture + execute exercises– Promote endogenous development, social inclusion & technological

sovereignty• Main methods

– Brainstorming, Surveys, Panels, SWOT, focus groups, community dialog, Interviews

• Main activities– Yucca in Gondola; Shared Vision of the Future of the Gas Industry;

Scenarios for the Agro-biotechnological Development of the Country; and Foresight on Biotechnology for Agro-Food Security by 2011

– National Plan for STI 2005-2030• Main actors

– FONACYT, IVIC, INTEVEP, CDCH, MCT, FUNDACITES, universities

• Main objectives:– To build an evaluation & promotion system for new stakeholders– To relate STI results to the needs of most excluded people– To promote a selective assimilation of technologies– To promote pertinent technological developments

EU

Foresight in Brazil

• Main actors– MST, MDIC, NAE, FINEP, CNPq– UNIDO link (with MDIC)– UFRJ, UNICAMP, USP, among others– CGEE

• Main objective– To inform both government and industry about possible

impacts of S&T trends • Main methods

– Brainstorming– Prioritisation workshops and surveys– Delphi– Scenarios & cross-impact

• Main activities– Brazil 2020– MST / PROSPECTAR– MDIC / BTFP– NAE / Brazil 3 Tempos– CGEE activities…

EU

Brazil: PROSPECTAR Programme

• Main actors– MST, National Council of S&T (CCT) + Anchor Institutions,

CNPq, Fund for National Studies & Research (FINEP) & a team from the Centre of Advanced Studies and Systems of Recife (CESAR)

• Main objectives– To examine macro-issues related to STI with a focus on

technological trends and inform key stakeholders about the future impacts of trends

• Main methods– Brainstorming & prioritisation– Delphi

• Main areas– Agriculture; Health; Energy; Telecommunications and IT;

Materials; Hydro resources; Aeronautics; and Space• Main remarks

– The massive mobilisation of the scientific community (>10k people)

– The programme raised awareness of the challenges Brazil was facing as a federation & raised the importance of Foresight in the scientific community

Brazil: The BTFP Programme

• Main actors– Secretary of Industrial Technology (STI) at the Ministry of

Industry, Development and Commerce (MIDC)– UNIDO, EMBRAPA + Anchor institutions

• Main objective– To contribute to development of the productive sector

• Main methods– Foresight techniques applied to productive chain methodology

• modelling; segmentation; performance indicators; critical factors; future events; Delphi survey + scenarios & cross-impacts (optional)

• Main areas– Civil construction; Textiles & clothing; Plastics; and Wood &

furniture• Main remarks

– The methodological approach proved to be useful to understand the complexity of long-term planning on issues concerning a large variety of market segments and stakeholders (from raw material producers to final consumers)

Brazil: NAE activities

• Main actor– Nucleus of Strategic Issues (NAE) of the Presidency of the

Republic• Main objective

– to define national objectives based on a large-scale dialog between different stakeholders of society

• Main methods– Trends & issues. 600 experts looking for Megatrends in 7

dimensions: Institutional; Economic; Socio-cultural; Territorial; Knowledge; Environment; and Global

– From 50 strategic themes to strategic goals & objectives– Strategic Focus (cross-impact + Delphi + Scenarios)

• Main projects– Improving the quality of basic and primary education

• Main remarks– Results are still being processed but the response rate has

been very satisfactory (around 38,000 participants)

EU

Brazil: CGEE activities

• Main actors– CGEE + sponsors + other relevant stakeholders

• Main objective– To support and execute foresight activities in Brazil– To raise awareness of about the future of key sectors

• Main methods– Brainstorming surveys– Workshops– Delphi

• Main projects– Energy, Biofuel, Biotechnology, Nanotechnology, Climate

Change, and Water Resources, among others• Main remarks

– Companion-system– Innovation portal– Delphi system

EU

Foresight in Colombia

• Main actors– Colciencias, National Centre of Productivity (CNP), SENA– UNIVALLE, Externado– CAF, CAB, UNIDO (incubation)

• Main objectives– Building capabilities & foresight culture– Fund and execute exercises

• Main methods– Brainstorming, Surveys, Panels, SWOT, Delphi, cross-impact– Scenarios & recommendations

• Main activities– Electric Sector– Food Packaging Sector– Lacteous Sector– Export potential of the health sector cluster in the Cauca Valley– Agro-industrial productive chain of Fique in Santander– Making Cartagena a tourist destiny– Horticulture productive chain of the Bogotá plains– Among others…

EU

Colombian Foresight Programme (1st Cycle)

First Cycle of the Colombian Foresight Programme (2003–04)

P1 Colombian Milk Sector sectoral

P2 Colombian Electr icity Sector sectoral

P3 Colombian Food Packaging Sector sectoral

P4 Tourism Sector in Cartagena City secto-territorial

P5 Health Cluster of the Cauca Region secto-territorial

P6 Hort iculture in the Bogota Plains secto-territorial

P7 Vegetable Fibres in Santander Region secto-territorial

P8 National Biotechnology Programme thematic

EU

Colombian Foresight Programme (2nd Cycle)Second Cycle of the Colombian Foresight Programme (2005–07)

P9 Colciencias: Productive Transformation of Colombia into a Knowledge Economy

P10 Colciencias / DNP: National STI Plan – Colombia Vision 2019

P11 Colciencias / MCIT: Micro-Small-and-Medium Enterprises Fund (Fomipyme)

P12 Colciencias / C. Excellence: Tuberculosis

P13 Colciencias / C. Excellence: New Materials (Hardening Surface)

P14 Colciencias / C. Excellence: Essential Oils and Natural Products (Medicinal Plants)

P15 Colciencias / C. Excellence: Genetic Resources and Biodiversity (Black Sigatoka in Plantain)

P16 Colciencias / C. Excellence: Culture, Development and Peace

P17 Colciencias / EAAB / EPM: Pilot on the Water Recycling Cluster

P18 Colciencias / CIDET: Pilot on the Electricity Cluster

Environmental Scanning

+ Foresight

(ESF)

P19 Colciencias Programmes: Biodiesel Production Technologies

P20 Colciencias Programmes: Bioinputs (e.g. biofertilizers)

P21 Colciencias Programmes: Electronics Applied to Agriculture

P22 Colciencias Programmes: Nanotechnology Manufacturing Methods

P23 Colciencias Programmes: Malaria Vaccines

P24 Colciencias Programmes: Social Conflicts Resolution

P25 Colciencias: National Capacities in Higher Education, Research and Innovation

Environmental Scanning

(ES)

P26 Colciencias / MADR: Furniture and Wood Products

P27 Colciencias / MADR: Cacao and Chocolate

P28 Colciencias / MADR: Dairy Products

P29 Colciencias / MADR: Tilapia Fish

Environmental Scanning +

Productive Chain Foresight (ES-

PCF)

International Networks Projects

P30 Productive Transformation and Higher Education in CAB countries (SECAB)

P31 Scenarios for Research and Technology Development Cooperation with Europe (SCOPE)

P32 Strategic Euro-Latin Foresight Research and University Learning Exchange (SELF-RULE)

ESF

EU

Latin Foresight Panorama (Experiences and Cooperation)

CountryState of

Evolution *Level + Focus # Objectives ~

Argentina A/I R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act-P

Bolivia Im Se F/s A

Brazil A/I N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P

Chile Le N, R, Se F/s, P A, Act, Act-P

Colombia A/I N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P

Cuba A/I R, Se, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P

Ecuador Le Se, Ac F/s A

Panama Im Se F/s A

Paraguay Im Se F/s A

Peru Le N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne

Mexico A/I N, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne

Uruguay Le N,R, Se F/s A

Venezuela A/I N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P

* State of evolution: position of foresight/future activities in the country along a spectrum from imitation [Im], via learning [Le} to adaptation/innovation [A/I]

+ Level: national [N], regional [R], sectoral [Se], organizational [O], academic [Ac]# Focus: foresight [F/s], policy action [P]~ Objectives: anticipation [A], networking [Ne], action achieved [Act], action proposed [Act-P]

Countries with 1 or more foresight projects with Europe

EU

With whom?


Monitoring Foresight Cooperation

Sustainable Partnership

Knowledge Transfer

Core Elements of Foresight Cooperation

Joint ResearchLA fundedEU funded

EU-LA funded

Training / CapacitiesBasic

IntermediateAdvanced

Post-graduate

Advice / SupportProcess Design

Methodology supportProcess Management

Shared PlatformsKnowledge baseInfrastructures

Instruments



Advice and Support

• For example, in Colombia:

Public sector• Colciencias, SENA, DNP, Ministries, etc.

Private sector• Chambers of Commerce• Public enterprises

Academic sector• UNIVALLE, National University, etc.



Training / Capacities

• Capacities building activities On demand

• National Foresight Programmes, Research Centres, Etc.

• Mobility Programmes Successful one-off experience

• SELF-RULE

• Post-graduate programmes Under construction



Research

• Joint research projects Methodological standards (CO-UK)

• Mapping/monitoring foresight SELF-RULE and EFMN (EU-LA)

• Evaluation of foresight experiences Colombian Foresight Evaluation (CO-UK)



Shared Platforms

• Knowledge base Publications

• Books• Chapters• Papers• Reports

• Case studies / data bank Case studies repository ???


So, what?


Cooperation Opportunities(FP7 Calls…)

• Activity 8.3. Major trends in society and their implications– Area 8.3.2. Societal trends and lifestyles -

SSH-2009-3.2.2. Social platform on research for families and family policies – EUR 1.5M (support action)

• Activity 8.4. Europe in the world– Area 8.4.1. Interactions and

interdependences between world regions and their implications - SSH-2009-4.1.2 Geopolitics and the role of Europe in a changing world – EUR 3M (coordinating action)


Cooperation Opportunities(FP7 Calls…)

• Activity 8.7. Foresight activities– Area 8.7.5. Mutual learning and co-

operation - SSH-2009-7.5.1 - Consolidating the information system for foresight– EUR 720.000 Euros

Coordination and support actions (coordinating actions)At least 3 independent legal entities, each of which isestablished in a MS or AC, and no two of which areestablished in the same MS or AC.

Coordination and support actions (support actions)At least 1 legal entity


Rafael [email protected]

Gracias!


Core elements of Foresight in Europe and Latin America Rafael Popper –...

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