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Transcript of Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 The Future of Management Julian Birkinshaw Professor of Strategy &...
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
The Future of Management
Julian BirkinshawProfessor of Strategy & Entrepreneurship
Director of the Deloitte Institute London Business School
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
Credit Default SwapsProcessor speed (MIPS)Processing power/$Number of internet hostsData transmission speedsCost of bandwidth
(bits/second/$) Number of genes sequencedAstronomical data collected
The Accelerating Change hypothesis
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
Ray Kurzweil
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
The creative destruction hypothesis
“INDUSTRIAL AGE”
“INFORMATION AGE”
1980 2000196019401920
?
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
The Information Age: Capital and labour no longer scarce resources
Efficiency driving out effectivene
ss
Productivity driving
out motivation
CAPITAL
LABOUR
INFORMATION
KNOWLEDGE
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
What lies beyond?
“INDUSTRIAL AGE”
“INFORMATION AGE”
“POST INFORMATION
AGE”
1980 2000 2020196019401920
?
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
Brief table discussion
What would be the warning signs that the “information age” was coming to an end?
a) What does a business world with too much information look like? What problems does that create? How might we overcome those problems?
b) And what does a business world with too much emphasis on knowledge look like? What problems does that create? How might we overcome those problems?
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
Problems with Big Data Analytics
Overly precis
e
Lacking in context
An answer in search of a question
42
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
Transitioning beyond the information age
Too much information
creates deficit of attention
Overemphasis on logic leads
to sterile decision making
INFORMATION
KNOWLEDGE
DECISIVE ACTION
EMOTIONAL CONVICTION
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
The changing source of advantage
INDUSTRIAL AGE
Labour Capital
INFORMATION AGE
InformationKnowledge
“AGILE AGE”
ActionConviction
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
How should your organisation respond to these changes?
• Fight complexity with complexity
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
Benefits of creating a complex organisation structure
Formal rules and procedures
create efficiency
People are given roles according
to expertise
Favouritism is eliminated
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
Costs of creating a complex organisation structure
Risk averse
Slow moving
Disempowering
Internally focused
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
How should your organisation respond to these changes?
• Fight complexity with complexity
• Fight complexity with simplicity
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
Simpler structures can be more powerful
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
What is the ‘management model’ of the future?
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
So, what do you do for a living?
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
Three ways of describing yourself in the workplace
Your
formal
position
What
you
know
What you
do
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
Three different organising models
People motivated by…
Decisions made through…
By Rules
Hierarchy
Extrinsic Rewards
Coordination achieved…
People motivated by…
Decisions made through…
Around Opportunity
Experimentation
Achievement
Coordination achieved…
BureaucracyPosition is privileged
AdhocracyAction is privileged
People motivated by…
Decisions made through…
Mutual Adjustment
Logical Argument
Personal Mastery
Coordination achieved…
MeritocracyKnowledge is
privileged
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
Opportunity-focused coordination
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
Experimental decision-making
Eight monthsNine partners<$1m budget
“We are making decisions on the fly, very
aggressively. But they are informed decisions. The purpose is to get to the
next stage as effectively as possible; and once there, the next target
becomes visible”
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
INDUSTRIAL AGE
Emphasis on productivity
and efficiency
BUREAUCRACY
INFORMATION AGE
Emphasis on rational
analysis and expertise
MERITOCRACY
‘AGILE’ AGE
Emphasis on agility, intuition, and decisiveness
ADHOCRACY
Shifting emphasis over time
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
Brief table discussion
Which model(s) are you using with today? And which would you like to be using?
People motivated by…
Decisions made through…
By Rules
Hierarchy
Extrinsic Rewards
Coordination achieved…
People motivated by…
Decisions made through…
Around Opportunity
Experimentation
Achievement
Coordination achieved…
BureaucracyPosition is privileged
AdhocracyAction is privileged
People motivated by…
Decisions made through…
Mutual Adjustment
Logical Argument
Personal Mastery
Coordination achieved…
MeritocracyKnowledge is
privileged
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
Adhocracy at a personal level
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
Men’s world high-jump record
2.5
5m
2.4
5m
2.3
5m
2.2
5m
2.1
5m
2.0
5m
1.9
5m
1900 1920 1940 19601980 2000
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
John Thomas vs. Valeriy Brumel
2.5
5m
2.4
5m
2.3
5m
2.2
5m
2.1
5m
2.0
5m
1.9
5m
1900 1920 1940 19601980 2000
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
Dick Fosbury: Mexico Olympics Gold
2.5
5m
2.4
5m
2.3
5m
2.2
5m
2.1
5m
2.0
5m
1.9
5m
1900 1920 1940 19601980 2000
Olympics
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
Three waves of innovation in the high jumping industry
2.5
5m
2.4
5m
2.3
5m
2.2
5m
2.1
5m
2.0
5m
1.9
5m
1900 1920 1940 19601980 2000
The Fosbury Flop
The Straddle Jump
The Western Roll
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
in praise of “unreasonable” people
The “Hyperloop”
Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
INDUSTRIAL AGE
BUREAUCRACY
Leadership is about
monitoring and controlling
INFORMATION AGE
MERITOCRACY
Leadership is about
expertise and information
flow
“AGILE” AGE
ADHOCRACY
Leadership is about enabling
experimentation, making an emotional connection