CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION California Activities Addressing Greenhouse Gas Emissions Guido Franco,...

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION

California Activities Addressing Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Guido Franco, Kelly Birkinshaw, Pierre DuVairCalifornia Energy Commission

Terry SurlesCalifornia Energy Commission

Kyoto, JapanOctober 1, 2002


Overview

California: Economy, energy use Potential impacts to California Greenhouse gas emissions Some state activities addressing climate

change Energy research and technology

development


California in Context

Size of the economy Gross state product in 2000 was about $1.35 trillion

Population Population grew from about 30 million in 1990 to

about 34.5 million in 20002 History of encouraging economic growth,

while maintaining an aggressive record for environmental protection


GDP (2000)

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

U.S.

Japan

Germany

U.K.

CALIFORNIA

France

China

Italy

Canada

Brazil

Mexico

GDP (2000) [trillions of U.S. dollars]

9,900

GDP (2000)


10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Water Year (October 1 - September 30)

Percent of Water Year Runoff

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

Our Principal Reservoir - The Sierra Snow Pack - Is Shrinking

Sacramento River Runoff (1906-2001)April to July as a Percent of Total Runoff

Source: California Protection Agency, Environmental Protection Indicators for California, 2001

Warmer Winters Have: Reduced snow pack Earlier snow melt Decreased Spring

runoff by 10% Major effects on

water supply, Cal Fed and Delta


Potential Impacts of Climate Change on California

Observed trend in earlier snow melts is extremely alarming Existing models can not tell us if the state will receive more

or less precipitation Serious implications for agriculture water availability

Source: Scripps Institution of Oceanography

SWE = snow water equivalent

“Dry” Scenario


Potential Impacts of Climate Change on California: Agriculture

Currently first in the nation major user of water (43%) and energy (2nd

largest user) This sector may be severely affected by

climate change but more studies are needed water availability exotic species


8.00

8.20

8.40

8.60

8.80

9.00

9.20

9.40

9.60

9.80

10.00

1850 1865 1880 1895 1910 1925 1940 1955 1970 1985 2000

Year

MSL (Feet)

Sea Level Is Rising Along California’s Coast

San Francisco Yearly Mean Sea Level(1855-2000)

Source: California Protection Agency, Environmental Protection Indicators for California, 2001

CA has already seen a 7” rise in 150 years

IPCC projects 4-35” sea level rise by 2100

Concerns over levee stability and salt water intrusion


Potential Impacts of Climate Change on California

Increased cooling degree days are already affecting electricity demand

Increased temperatures could increase energy expenditures significantly

Exacerbated by population growth, demographic shifts

Normalized 30-yr Average Cooling Degree Days

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

(1962-1991) (1965-1994) (1967-1996) (1969-1998) (1971-2000)

SacramentoFresnoSan Fran AirportLong BeachBurbankSan BernardinoSan DiegoYrekaBlythe


Motor Gasoline37%

Residual Fuel1%

Oher Transp. Fuels1%

Distillate Fuel8%

Jet Fuel12%

Commercial 4%Industrial

13%

Electric Power 16%

Transportation58%

Residential 9%

GHG EmissionIn-State CO2 Emissions by Sector


California versus US Electricity Supply

California (2000)284 TWh

US (1999)3,752 TWh

Natural GasCoal

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

HydroImports

NG = 15%Hydro = 33%Coal = 52%

37.6 %

12.4 %

14.8 %

25.5 %

50.2 %

14.8 %

19.4 %

8.5 %

Renewables 8 .4 %

OilRenewables

3.3 %1.6 %

Geoth. 4.7 %Bio 2.1 %Wind 1.3 %Solar 0.3 %


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

Year

Kilowatt-hours per person

US

California

GHG EmissionsPer-capita electricity consumption: effect of California energy efficiency programs


1990-1999 Relative Gross Greenhouse Gas Emissions

0.940.960.981.001.021.041.061.081.101.121.14

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999Emissions normalized to 1990 values

California United States


CO2 Emissions from the Combustion of Fossil Fuels: a Comparison with other Nations

California

Idaho

Ohio

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

Texas

United States

Vermont

South Dakota

D.C. Massachusetts

Connecticut

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

- 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Emissions/GSP (metric tons CO 2/thousand 1999 U.S. dollars)

Emissions/Capita (metric tons

CO2/person)


Existing State Policies/Programs/Initiatives

Creation of a voluntary early action program (California Action Registry)

New carbon dioxide emission standard for cars projected to start in 2009

Renewable Energy Program Public Interest Energy Research Program


Goals of the California Climate Action Registry

Adopt protocols for reporting and certification of GHG emission reductions

Support credible, nationwide registry transparent and defensible results extensive participation

Influence global debate on registries Assist development of GHG accounting, reporting

and certification standards


California Vehicular Emissions Reduction Bill

Requires the California Air Resources Board to develop regulations that achieve the maximum feasible reduction of GHGs emitted by passenger vehicles and light trucks

The regulations will apply to the 2009 model years and thereafter

The bill provides automobile manufacturers with maximum flexibility

The bill offers numerous alternatives for GHG reductions


New Automobile Fleet Characteristics and CO2 Emissions In Europe

Average CO2

emissions for new vehicles decreased significantly in Europe despite increases in vehicle mass, power, and engine capacity

Source: European Automobile Manufacturers Association and the Commission Services, “Monitoring of ACEA’s Commitment on CO2 Emission Reduction from Passenger Cars,” June 2002


Renewable Energy Program Funding of $540M

(1998-2001) and $1.3B (2002-2011)

Capital cost buydowns Goal is 17% RE by 2006 from 12% in state in 2002

Aspects of program may be superceded due to passage of a renewable portfolio standard law

Goal is 20% by 2017The PV-powered Ferris wheel at the Santa

Monica Pier is powered by stored electricity produced during daylight hours by PV panels

like the one shown in the foreground.


CaliforniaRenewable Portfolio Standard

Requires utilities to increase renewable electricity by at least 1% per year to 2017, until 20% of retail sales are produced from renewables

Directs utilities to enter into contracts with renewable energy generators for at least 10 years’ duration

Requires the California Energy Commission to certify and fund renewable energy resources


CEC has a $62M/Yr Energy R&D Program for Improving Efficiency and Developing Distributed

Resources

Carbon Management

Decarbonization CO2

Btu<CO2 atm

CO2 produced<Sequestration

Btu GSP<

Efficiency


The CEC/Public Interest Energy Research Program:Two Redwoods and an Oak

Efficiency DER Environment


Berkeley Lamp Model partnership between

CEC/DOE/California utilities PIER funded Phase 1 to develop

task/ambient lamp concept DOE funded Phase 2 to develop

specific lamp configuration PIER was instrumental in moving

the technology into the marketplace via coordination with the Utility Emerging Technology Coordinating Council

http://www.energy.ca.gov/pier/pr.html

Project is both a technical success and a customer success


Commercial Kitchen Exhaust Systems - Success Story

Issue:California food service facilities are typically designed without energy efficiency in mind.

PIER Project:Test alternative equipment configurations… to identify the most energy-efficient design alternative for providing makeup air.

“Schlieren” photo showing exhaust hood spilling effluent

Schlieren Flow Visualization


TechnologyRedesigned fumehood forcleaning contaminated indoor

air Benefits

Saves up to 50% of the energy Applicable in electronics

fabrication, pharmaceuticals,biomedical and chemical industries

30,000 fumehoods in California Potential to save $30 million

per year in California

RD&D for Industry, Agriculture & Water


PIER Buildings Program HighlightsNight Breeze

Provides ventilation and cooling at night, reducing or eliminating the need for air conditioning during the day


PowerLight’s PowerGuard

PowerLight’s insulated 30 year roof system reduces building air

conditioning loads while it’s PV surface generates electricity during hot and

expensive peak summer hours

While California is known for its hot dry summers, that same solar resource provides a clean, safe and reliable way

to generate electricity


WTCs Low Cost Wind Turbine

Wind parks supply over 1600 MW of California’s electricity capacity. An additional 5000 MW of new wind is undeveloped due to lower wind speeds that are too expensive to harness.

Capable of generating electricity at low cost in lower wind speed areas, WTC’s unique wind turbine will help harness California’s untapped wind potential.


The Yolo County Success

Accomplishments Is opening the way for landfill gas

electricity systems to be more widely used in California

• Accelerates gas production from over 30 years to less than 10 years, making landfill electricity more competitive

• Reduces volume of landfill which can extend landfill life by 20 percent

• Significantly reduces the chance for groundwater pollution from leachate release

Has become the leading bioreactor project within EPA’s XL Program and will strongly influence landfill regulations across the country

CEC’s Role Through the CEC’s R&D programs, we’re

bringing bioreactor technology from concept to reality

Control cell without bioreactor

Enhanced bioreactor cell


Gas Turbine Semi-Radiant Burner - Alzeta Corporation

Description: Gas turbine combustor that

allows fuel to be premixed with large quantities of air prior to combustion

Benefits: Lower NOX emissions without

SCR; Cheaper than post-combustion

clean-up systems; Allows deployment of smaller

turbines for DG; and CEC is receiving royalties from

Alzeta


Xonon Cool Combustion System - Catalytica Energy Systems, Inc.

Description: Gas turbine combustion

system that controls combustion temperature to prevent the formation of NOX.

Benefits: Lower NOX emissions without

SCR Allows deployment of smaller

turbines for DG Expandable to large, central

station turbines Use with Kawasaki turbine


Dynamic Transmission Line Rating

Congestion cost $169M on Path 15 in 4th Qtr 2000

System monitors line’s tension in real-time

Path 15 demonstration indicating greater than 390 MW increased capacity

Environmental benefit through delay/avoidance of new transmission corridors


Composite Reinforced Aluminum Conductor

Fiber optics (for future applications)

Composite plastics core toenhance mechanical strength

Aluminum cover


Dry Cooling Spray Enhancement

Water shortfalls predicted to reach 2.4 million acre-feet in 2020

A 500 MW power plant uses 3 millions gpd of water

Dry cooling is an option but with decreased efficiency and higher costs

CEC is funding development of a hybrid system that couples traditional dry cooling with spray nozzles to improve efficiency

Spray enhancement provides 7-14 MW increase at Crockett on a hot day


Climate Change Research and Assessment Activities are Just Starting

Research center on regional climate change:

Focus will be physical sciences and regional modeling

Additional studies on ecological and economic impacts


California Can Have a Voice in the On-Going Debate

Major emitter of GHG Excellent environmental track record

energy efficiency and fuel mix environmental laws

New policies and programs focused on GHG An aggressive Public Goods Energy R&D

Program for meeting the challenge

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION California Activities Addressing Greenhouse Gas Emissions Guido Franco,...

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