Coping with the complexity of defence projects

RUSI, 10th September, 2008

Defence projects are diverse

Some projects are less complex than others.

The most complex projects (Tier III in Smart language) have ‘high unit cost, substantial technical risk and limited sources of supply’. Within this Tier, the most complex projects are those to be used directly against an enemy in combat.

Strategies for coping with complexity must address the latter projects.

Complication and Complexity

Complicated problems have a large number of variables, but operate within explicit rules and agreed objectives.

Three-dimensional chessEngineering design for space explorationArranging the timetable for a large school

Complex problems have many stakeholders in multiple environments, and are governed by sciences which are imperfectly understood and which are not subject to repeatable test & evaluation.

Regeneration of an inner city

Defence projects are complex

Characteristics of modern warfare.

Rapid advance of defence-related technologies.

Scale and duration of major projects.

Characteristics of the Government as a customer.

All of these complexities are durable.

Big infrequent projects

Technical risk

High publicprofile

Budgetary peaks

Requirement creep

Longlife cycles

Challenges of defence systems acquisition

High unit production cost

Hi-tech equipment

Long & costly development

Multiple potential threats

Various future scenarios

Complex requirements

War is competitive

‘It is a truth universally acknowledged’ that defence equipment acquisition is one of the most challenging

of human activities

Characteristics of modern warfare

Synchronised interplay of many specialist systems.

Diverse threats and environments.

Determined and ingenious enemies.

Infrequent high-intensity wars, so dual imperatives of war and peace.

Important consequences of victory and defeat.

Rapid advance of technologies

Difficult to predict future threats, and hence difficult to formulate requirements for the best military capabilities to counter them.

Risks to the project’s cost, timescale and performance of exploiting unproven technology.

Scale and duration of major projects

Major projects in each class are expensive and therefore infrequent; accordingly they assume great significance for the stakeholders involved.

Project budgets must cover several decades of procurement, operation & support, and disposal.

Projects with long timescales are prone to changing requirements and political/financial risks.

Government as a customer

Imperfect markets with -Few buyers and few sellers, asymmetries of information, etc.

Funded by public TreasuryGoverned by rules of public accountability

Defence projects have diverse stakeholdersServices, industry, Treasury, politicians, allies, etc.

Increasing complexity

Government now has a plethora of PFI/PPP arrangements.

Advance in defence-related technologies is accelerating.

Defence forces and their equipment are increasingly networked.

Individual defence projects are growing faster than financial or industrial resources and now have significant effects on –

Military capabilities of national/allied forces

Defence budget management

Development of the defence industrial base

Resource allocation within the operating Service

A jigsaw for masochists

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FUTURE SYSTEM

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WARSHIP SAT COMRADAR

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Coping with complexity

‘New’ concepts and policiesMilitary capabilities, defence lines of development, industrial and technology strategies.

Reorganisation of Government and industryDPA + DLO = DE&S, logistic support for fast jets

Analyses to illuminate modern warfare

Innovation in defence research, design and acquisition

Systems engineering

Risk analysis and management

Improvement in government/industry synergy

Training & education

Coping with the characteristics of modern warfare

Operational analysis and mathematical modelling to investigate the characteristics of future warfare and how it might be fought.

Models should be guided and interpreted by military judgement.

Models should be unbiased, and should incorporate all important features of the operation/campaign.

Scenario analysis of alternative consistent futures to identify robust military capabilities.

Coping with the rapid advance of defence-relevant technologies

Science over-watch and technology forecasting to minimise surprises.

Sustain an independent programme of research and technology demonstration, which is large enough to form a good basis for project assessment and/or development.

Design equipment with open systems architecture and use incremental acquisition (where appropriate) to facilitate cost-effective responses to evolving threats and technological opportunities.

Coping with project scale and duration

A large project should be subdivided into manageable elements, using an interface matrix to minimise awkward interfaces.

A long project must adopt a through-life approachUse Investment Appraisal to guide project selection and to optimise design and management within an integrated project management organisation.

Large, long projects must have risk analyses which are comprehensive, unbiased, rigorous, and frequently updated.

Coping with the Government as a customer

No golden rules for imperfect markets.

Use competition, partnership and regulation in combination to achieve the optimal mix of economy, security of supply, appropriate sovereignty and national economic development.

Recognise divergent objectives of interested stakeholders.Services – high performance, rapid delivery

Industry – high profit, improved competitiveness

Treasury – low cost, delay

Politicians – national security and prosperity

Allies - interoperability

All stakeholders should share information to facilitate negotiations between them.

Coping with complexity via education

Training in methods and procedures is necessary, but not sufficient.Project management personnel also need education to give them a holistic view of their project.

Understanding of engineering, analysis and management issues.Appreciation of world affairs, science & technology, industrial economics and military operations.

Educated staff should have T-shaped knowledge.Personnel in defence projects have diverse attitudes to -

Authority, responsibility, communications, risk & uncertainty, appearance and reality, urgency, ethics, etc.

An educated senior managers must understand all cultures to lead a heterogeneous team effectively.

Conclusion

Defence project management is one of the most complex and challenging of human activities.

Modern concepts, policies and analyses can help educated managers to cope with complexity.