COP 21 and Spanish position on climate agreements (BC3 Summer School _July 2015)

THE CLIMATE CHANGE INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS: WHERE WE ARE




Outline

1. The United Nations System for the climate change negotiations: How it works & main milestones

2. The future climate change regime:The importance of the Climate Paris Summit in December 2015

3. Main challenges and opportunities


1. The United Nations System for the climatechange negotiations:

How it works and main milestones


There are also many other international Organizations & Fora within and outside UN dealing with climate change

International Process: Climate ChangeUnited Nations

Funds: GEF, AF, GCF, etc

UNFCCC & KP

Assessment Finance for developing countries

Convention & Kyoto Protocol

IPCC

UNEP WMO

The COP (Conference of the Parties) is the supreme body of the UNFCCC, all countries that are Parties to the UNFCCC Convention (195 now) are represented at the COP.

The COP meets annually (technical and ministerial level) to review the implementation of the Convention and takes the necessary decisions to promote its effective implementation,

including institutional and administrative arrangements.

Decisions under the UNFCCC are taken by consensus Multilateral country driven process


A little bit of history… 1988, Toronto: International Panel on Climate Change established (IPCC)

1992, Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and other important environmental international Conventions (Biodiversity and Desertification).

1997, Kyoto (COP 3): The Kyoto Protocol is adopted (only commitments for developed countries for the 2008-2012 period)

1998-2001: Kyoto Protocol Rules adopted

Since 2007- until now: different meetings and formats of discussions for negotiating the future climate change regime have taken place 2009, Copenhagen (COP15) : 2011, Durban (COP17): new group, mandate & schedule for the negotiation

of a “Global Climate Change Agreement” in 2015, Paris (COP 21)(in the meanwhile, in 2012 amendments for a 2nd commitment period of the Kyoto

Protocol for 2013-2020 were agreed)


The UNFCCC (1992)The ultimate objective of this Convention (Article 2) and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is “to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, the stabilization

of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous

anthropogenic interference with the climate system”.

Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to

proceed in a sustainable manner.6


All Parties to the UNFCCC (in the case of developing countries in accordance with its respective capabilities and the level of international support received), should:

1. Gather and share information on GHG, national policies and best practices 2. Launch national strategies for addressing GHG emissions and adapting to expected impacts, including the provision of financial and technological support to developing countries3. Cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change

MORE INFO http://unfccc.int/national_reports/items/1408.php

The UNFCCC


Annex I Parties (Countries): committed to reducing greenhouse-gas

emissionsAustralia, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Croatia, Demark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lichtenstein, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Monaco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania ,Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, UK, USA, and European Community

Annex II Parties (Coutries): additional special obligations: to provide financial

resources and facilitate technology transfer to developing countries

Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxemburg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, USA, and European Community

Non-Annex I Parties (Countries)(without historic responsibility for carbon pollution)

Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahamas, Bahrain, Bangladesh,

Barbados, Belize, Benin, Bhutan, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Cameroon,

Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Chile, China, Colombia, Comoros, Congo, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Côte

d’Ivoire, Cuba, Cyprus, Democratic Peoples’ Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea,

Ethiopia, Fiji, Gabon, Gambia, Georgia, Ghana, Grenada, Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, India,

Indonesia, Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, Jamaica, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kiribati, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Lao Peoples’

Democratic Republic, , Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali, Malta, Marshall

Islands, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mexico, Micronesia, Moldova, Mongolia, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, Nauru,

Nepal, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Niue, Oman, Pakistan, Palau, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Qatar, Republic of Korea, Rwanda, Samoa, San Marino, Sao Tome and

Principe, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia and Montenegro, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Singapore, Solomon Islands, South

Africa, Sri Lanka, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Sudan, Suriname, Swaziland, Syrian Arab

Republic, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Togo, Tonga, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turkmenistan, Tuvalu, Uganda, United

Arab Emirates, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu, Venezuela, Viet Nam, Yemen, Zambia, Zimbabwe

The UNFCCC Annexes


The Convention was the first historic step in global effort to halt the growth of greenhouse gas emissions.

However, it lacked specific quantitative targets and firm timelines for achieving tangible emission reductions.

So Parties to the Convention felt a need to strengthen the commitments and to build on the momentum created…

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The Kyoto Protocol (1997) 1st International Treaty which includes quantitative legally

binding commitments (for developed countries) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

It implements the objective of the UNFCCC and it is based on one of its principles “common but differentiated responsibilities” it puts the obligation to reduce

emissions on developed countries on the basis that they were historically responsible for the levels of greenhouse

gases in the atmosphere

It includes a rigorous measuring and compliance system 10


The Kyoto Protocol (1997)

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1st Commitment period (2008-2012)

• Developed countries committed to reducing emissions of the six greenhouse gases (CO2, N2O, CH4, HFC, PF, SF6) by at least 5% compared to the 1990 levels (European Union by 8%)

• Limited participation - USA does not ratify the KP - Emerging economies don’t have commitments under the KP

2nd Commitment period (2013-2020)

• Even more limited participation (countries with commitments under the KP2 represent only 15% of the global emissions)

• EU has committed to reducing its GHG by at least 20% compared to 1990 levels

• The USA is still not in, and some other countries get out or do not commit to specific quantified commitments (Canada, Japan, Rusia and New Zeland)


año base1990

- 8% Unión Europea- 8% Liechtenstein, Mónaco,

Rep. Checa, Bulgaria, Eslovaquia, Eslovenia,Estonia, Letonia, Lituania

- 7% Estados Unidos-6% Japón, Canadá,

Hungría, Polonia- 5% Croacia

0% Rusia, Ucrania, Nueva Zelanda

1% Noruega8% Australia

10% Islandia

Developed Countries European Union- 28 % Luxemburgo- 21 % Alemania- 21 % Dinamarca- 13 % Austria- 12,5% Reino Unido- 7,5% Bélgica- 6 % Países Bajos

0 % Finlandia0 % Francia

+ 4 % Suecia+ 6,5% Italia+13 % Irlanda+15 % España+25 % Grecia+28 % Portugal28

The Kyoto Protocol (1st commitment period)


Intergubernamental Pannel on Climate Chnage (IPCC)(1988)

UNITED NATIONS CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE (UNFCCC) (1992)

Kioto Protocol (KP)(1997)

1st commitment period: 2008-2012

2nd commitment period: 2013-2020

Nowdays: 195 countries negotiating the future climate regime (post-2020)

(2015 Paris Climate Summit)

CLIMATE CHANGE NEGOTIATIONS MAIN MILESTONS


The IPCC(Intergouvernamental Pannel on Climate Change)

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• The IPCC main’s task is to review and assess the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to climate change.

• The IPCC does not carry out its own original research, nor does the work of monitoring climate or related phenomena itself. The IPCC bases its assessment on published scientific literature, which includes peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed sources.


The IPCC(Intergouvernamental Pannel on Climate Change)

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The IPCC work is shared among three Working Groups:

Working Group I (WG I) assesses the physical scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change.

Working Group II (WG II) assesses the vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change, negative and positive consequences of climate change, and options for adapting to it.

Working Group III (WG III) assesses options for mitigating climate change through limiting or preventing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing activities that remove them from the atmosphere.

The latest and 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC was presented in 2014.It consists of the 3 Working Group (WG) reports and a Synthesis Report (SYR)

which includes a summary for policy makers

http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/


Warming of the climate system is unequivocal and, since the 1950s, many observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia.

The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of GHG have increased

Each of the last three decades has been successively warmerat the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850

Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the

highest in history.

The IPCC(Key messages and findings from 5th Report)


Evolution of Greenhouse Gas (CO2, CH4, N2O) concentrations in the atmosphere

From the 5th IPCC Report

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9

land & ocean surface temperature



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sea level



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And….ocean acidification, lost of biodiversity, species facing increasedextinction, etc.



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2. The Future Climate Change Regime: The importance of the Paris Climate Summit

(Dec. 2015)


Area proportional to historical CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion (1900-1999)

Source: World Research Institute


Breakdown of Total World Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 2011

Source: World Research Institute 2014.


2012 2013 2014 2015 2020

COP 18

Doha

COP 19

Warsaw

COP 20

Lima

COP 21

París

COP 26

UN Event

Science IPCC AR5

Kyoto Protocol II

Ratification

New Global Agreement

2021

COP 17

Durban

2011

Durban Platform

Negotiations of the Paris Agreement: Schedule

2009

COP 15

Copenhague


Complex negotiating context• Complexity of the negotiations per se

• Strong economic and commercial implications

• 195 countries to agree

• Economic and financial crisis has limited its evolution

• Multitude of parallel processes and initiatives: MEF, G7-

G20; UN General Assembly, etc


UNFCCC StructureUNFCCC (since 1992)

Conference of Parties - COP

Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice

(SBSTA)

Subsidiary Body for Implementation

(SBI)

UNFCCC Secretariat

Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform (ADP)(where the Future Climate Regime is being negotiated)

Kyoto Protocol (commitment periods: 2008-2012/2013-2020)Conference of parties Serving as meeting of Parties - CMP

Several institutions and instruments put in place under the UNFCCC

Several institutions and instruments put in place under the KP


Negotiations of the Future Global Agreement: The Durban Platform Group

• Agreed in 2011 in Durban (South Africa)• Formal framework for the negotiation of the post 2020

international climate change regime– Adoption in 2015: Paris– Enter into force in 2020– A protocol, a legal instrument or an agreed outcome with

legal force• Under the Convention• Applicable to all • Two workstreams:

– Pre 2020 mitigation ambition – Post 2020 Global Agreement

• Pillars of the Agreement: Mitigation, Adaptation, Finance, Technology, Capacity building and Transparency of action and support.


Outcomes from the negotiating process in 2012, 2013, 2014 Climate Summits

2ºC goal reinforced and reflected in all texts and decisions adopted

Financial commitments from developed countries to developing countriesto support climate change projects and activities (both for adaptation and mitigation) as well as technology transfer and capacity building activities Establishement of the Green Climate Fund http://news.gcfund.org/

Reinforcement of the Measuring, Reporting and Verification Systemfor Mitigation and Adaptation policies & measures and also regarding supportprovided to developing countries

New (and old) instruments and tools discussed and/or established: future of carbon markets, REDD+ Mechanism, NAMAs, etc

Several new institutions established to help the process and theUNFCCC Secretariat:

• The International Technology Mechanism• The Adaptation Committee• The Standing Committee on Finance• The Green Climate Fund• Others under discussion: Loss and Damage international mechanism


Institutions established under UNFCCC


Negotiating process in 2015 (1)1. (From 2014, Lima Climate Summit) Presentation of the

“contributions” to the Agreement in 2015

Countries to present their “intended national determined contribution”to the Future Global Agreement”, well in advance of Paris (during the 1st quarter for those in a position to do so)• Ensures mitigation component: adaptation is optional• These contributions should be presented in a way that allows

them to be clear, transparent, comparable and quantifiable. • Developed countries should support developing countries

in preparing them

Assessment of these contributions (= potential future commitments): Are they enough?• Synthesis of their aggregate effect to be prepared by UNFCCC

and published in in UNFCCC website (1st October 2015)


2. Negotiating text

Countries working on a draft text right now in Bonn (Germany)• 86 pages long• Compilation of all options from countries proposal

– How to deal with it during the Bonn session and nextsessions foreseen before the Climate Summit in Paris

– What should be decided in Paris and what later?

Challenges• Working on the text with 195 Parties• Identifying the clear options• Interaction at the highest levels:

– Ministers?– Heads of State?

Negotiating process in 2015 (2)


Negotiating process in 2015 (1)3. “Contributions” to the Agreement in 2015

So far, 45 contributions (INDCs) presented by: Switzerland European Union Norway Mexico USA Gabon Russia Liechtensten Andorra Canada

Need for major economies to come forward More info:

http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/indc/Submission%20Pages/submissions.aspx


• EU Climate and Energy Framework for 2030

– Greenhouse Gas emission reductions objective of, at least, 40% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels

The EU 2030 Climate and Energy Framework alsoincludes two additional european objectives:

• Renewable Energies objective: 27%• Energy Efficiency improvement objective: 27%

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The EU Contribution to the Paris Agreement


• USA– Intends to achieve an economy-wide target of reducing its greenhouse gas

emissions by 26-28% below its 2005 levels in 2025, and to make bestefforts to reduce its emissions by 28%

• CHINA– To achieve the peaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and making best efforts to

peak early;– To lower carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 60% to 65% from the 2005 level by 2030;– To increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20% by 2030;

and– To increase the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters on the 2005 level by 2030

• MEXICO– To reduce “unconditionally” 25% of its greenhouse gas and short lived

climate pollutant emissions (below BAU) for the year 2030 ( implies a reduction of 22% of GHG)

– This commtiment could increase up to a 40% in a conditional manner, subject to a global agreement addressing important topics (carbon price, technical cooperation, access to financial resources and technology transfer)

• RUSSIA– Limiting anthropogenic greenhouse gases to 70-75% of 1990 levels by

the year 2030, subject to the maximum possible account of absorbingcapacity forests

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Other Parties Contributions to the Paris Agreement


3. Main Challenges and Opportunities


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Challenges (right now) • The nature of countries’ contributions to the Future Global

Agreement not clearly specified different formats will make them hard to be compared and assessed.

• Processes for monitoring, reporting and verification of these contributions will also have to be agreed.

• The Agreement’s legal form.

• Issues of fairness and equity need to be addressed, acknowledging that developed countries have a greater historical responsibility for climate change and stronger capabilities for taking action but also acknowledging the evolving responsibilities and capabilities of countries.

• A flexible and long lasting agreement

• Continued engagement with stakeholders worldwide is needed to achieve the transformations of the economies and energy systems


Opportunites

• Major win-wins for society, the environment and the economyHigh GHG emissions are an indicator of poor management; The

more GHG you produce the less efficient and less profitable you arein your business, your farm, or your home

• Globally non-fossil energy sources can help to address energyneeds

• Sustainable management and improved resources use canincrease returns

• International Climate Finance New Business Opportunities

Deployment of Green Technologies

• Technical cooperation with third countries: North-South, South-South, Triangular and Regional Cooperation needed

• Implication of all stakeholders


Developed countries pledge:– Short term: UP to $30 billion 2010–2012 (Fast Start

Financing)– Long term: Jointly mobilize $100 billion per year by

2020 (variety of public, private, bilateral, multilateral, and ‘alternative’ sources)

Green Climate Fund: Will channel a significant share of climate finance

Climate FinanceCommitments


Climate FinanceFLOWS

Climate change projects and activities in DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

(energy, transport, water, waste, forestry, etc)

PRIVATEMULTILATERALWorld Bank,

ADB etcBILATERAL

within the context of

UNFCCCDOMESTIC

ALLOCATIONS


More information:

http://www3.unfccc.int/pls/apex/f?p=116:1:3633187008393738

http://www.climatefundsupdate.org/the-funds

Climate Finance


THANKS A LOT!!!!!

Ministerio de Agricultura Alimentación y Medio Ambiente/Cambio Climático: http://www.magrama.gob.es/es/cambio-climatico/temas/

EU Climate Action http://ec.europa.eu/clima/index_en.htm

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change http://newsroom.unfccc.int/

COP 21 and Spanish position on climate agreements (BC3 Summer School _July 2015)

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Transcript of COP 21 and Spanish position on climate agreements (BC3 Summer School _July 2015)