Trust nobody. Trust your data.

Ben AmbridgeHead of Consumer Psychology, Endless Gain

Psychological Intelligence: PSY-Q

Problem

A H I B U E E V S D K E S T E Y U TE H E H A I O A S O L R R W Y Z A BI Q U F M K U E N E O H D S R E B SE P F V A M E U U B K P Y U E A I AU K I T T E N S H Y H A U N D B H HJ P I K W N D T T E I S U S O S Y JA O J L E E Q I O S E I P H S F C IA K L H A P P Y Q R F G D I C H I AJ B P B V E C I O H I Y H N Y Y K IT I I H X A A N D O L F E E H T Y BH A K Y K C C S L D O E G I T T C IE H R L P E A S M A P H G C H F I D

Wordsearch

A H I B U E E V S D K E S T E Y U TE C A S H I O A S O L W R W Y Z F BI Q U F M K U E N E O O D U R E I SE P F V A M E U U B K N Y Y E A N AU O K P R O F I T S H G U Q D B A HJ P I K W N D T T E I A U D O S N JA O J L E E Q I O S E I P C S F C IA K L I B Y U A Q R F G D X C H I AJ B P B V O C I O H D O U G H Y A IT I I H X L A N D O L F E G H T L BB U S I N E S S L D O E G I T T C IE H R L P O A S M A P H G C H F I D

• Most economic policies in Europe serve the greater good• Many people suffer through no fault of their own• Some groups of people are simply inferior to others• The most fair economic system is a market system in which everyone is

allowed to independently pursue their own economic interests

Wordsearch

A H I B U E E V S D K E S T E Y U TE C A S H I O A S O L W R W Y Z F BI Q U F M K U E N E O O D U R E I SE P F V A M E U U B K N Y Y E A N AU O K P R O F I T S H G U Q D B A HJ P I K W N D T T E I A U D O S N JA O J L E E Q I O S E I P C S F C IA K L I B Y U A Q R F G D X C H I AJ B P B V O C I O H D O U G H Y A IT I I H X L A N D O L F E G H T L BB U S I N E S S L D O E G I T T C IE H R L P O A S M A P H G C H F I D

A H I B U E E V S D K E S T E Y U TE H E H A I O A S O L R R W Y Z A BI Q U F M K U E N E O H D S R E B SE P F V A M E U U B K P Y U E A I AU K I T T E N S H Y H A U N D B H HJ P I K W N D T T E I S U S O S Y JA O J L E E Q I O S E I P H S F C IA K L H A P P Y Q R F G D I C H I AJ B P B V E C I O H I Y H N Y Y K IT I I H X A A N D O L F E E H T Y BH A K Y K C C S L D O E G I T T C IE H R L P E A S M A P H G C H F I D

Wordsearch

1. Would you prefer…(a) to win £50 for sure OR(b) a 50% chance to win £100 (50% chance to win nothing)

2. Would you prefer…(a) to lose £50 for sure OR(b) a 50% chance to lose nothing (50% chance to lose £100)

A sure thing?

Would you prefer to buy…(a) A £50 shirt with free delivery(b) A £40 shirt + £10 for delivery(c) A £45 shirt + £5 for delivery(d) A £45 shirt + £5 for delivery OR £20 for next-day delivery(e) A £55 shirt with a special £5 discount if you collect in store

A sure thing?

• Some of the artists are beekeepers • All of the beekeepers are chemists

What necessarily follows?

(a) Some of the artists are chemists(b) All of the artists are chemists(c) None of the artists are chemists?(d) All of the chemists are artists

Let’s Bee Reasonable

•None of the archers are boxers•All of the boxers are clerks

What necessarily follows?

Let’s Bee Reasonable

•None of the athletes are builders•All of the builders are criminals

What necessarily follows?

Let’s Bee Reasonable

• Some of the clerks are not archers• Some of the criminals are not athletes

Let’s Bee Reasonable

The biggest football stadium in the Netherlands is the Amsterdam Arena. Don’t play if you know for sure, but

please guess its capacity.

A Tall Tale

The tallest mountain in the world is Mount Everest. Again, please don’t play if you know for sure,

please guess its height (in feet)

A Tall Tale

DISASTER! Yes, they’re both for the same weekendWhich do you choose? (both are nonrefundable!)

• Suppose you’ve bought a £300 flight for a holiday weekend in Italy• You then buy a £150 flight for a holiday weekend in Spain• You think you will enjoy the Spain trip more than the Italy trip

That Sinking Feeling

54% 46%

That Sinking Feeling

Successful replications• Anchoring effects http://www.endlessgain.com/blog/2016/10/how-to-use-the-

anchoring-effect-to-win-more-business/• Gain vs loss framing https://osf.io/wx7ck/wiki/home/• Sunk costs https://osf.io/wx7ck/wiki/home/

Failures to replicate• Money priming http://curatescience.org/#money-priming• Disfluent fonts and maths problems

http://digitalcommons.chapman.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1095&context=esi_pubs

• www.curatescience.org• https://alexanderetz.com/2015/08/30/the-bayesian-reproducibility-project/

Summary

Find a study/effect

Check it replicates

Put it into practice on your sites

TEST, TEST and

TEST again

Trust nobody. Trust your data.

Ben AmbridgeHead of Consumer Psychology, Endless Gain