Contributions to Economics

More information about this series athttp://www.springer.com/series/1262

Felix Kaup

The Sugarcane Complex inBrazil

The Role of Innovation in a Dynamic Sectoron Its Path Towards Sustainability

Felix KaupPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchPotsdamGermany

Institute for Latin American StudiesFreie Universitat BerlinBerlinGermany

ISSN 1431-1933 ISSN 2197-7178 (electronic)Contributions to EconomicsISBN 978-3-319-16582-0 ISBN 978-3-319-16583-7 (eBook)DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-16583-7

Library of Congress Control Number: 2015936312

Springer Cham Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part ofthe material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations,recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmissionor information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar ordissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed.The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in thispublication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exemptfrom the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in thisbook are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor theauthors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material containedherein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made.

Printed on acid-free paper

Springer International Publishing AG Switzerland is part of Springer Science+Business Media(www.springer.com)

D 188

Exchange rates €, US$, and RS$ (average January–December 2012)

Brazilian Real (R$) United States Dollar (US$) Euro (€)

2.8 1.28 1

2.19 1 0.78

1 0.46 0.36

Amazonas

Acre

North

Rio Grande do Sul

Rio de Janeiro

Paraná

São Paulo

Minas Gerais

Goiás

Mato Grosso

Tocan�ns

Pará

Roraima

Mato Grosso do Sul

SergipeAlagoas

Paraíba

Rondônia

Federal District

Bahia

Espírito Santo

Amapa

Piauí

Maranhão

Pernambuco

Ceará

Santa Catarina

Rio Grande do Norte

South - West

North - East

Center - West

South

Macro-regions of Brazil

Map of the Brazilian Federal States and the five macro-regions. Based on data from http://en.

wikipedia.org/wiki/Regions_of_Brazil

v

ThiS is a FM Blank Page

Acknowledgments

This thesis would not have been completed without the help of many people and

institutions whom I would like to thank here.

First of all, I would like to express my gratitude to Prof. em. Dr. Manfred Nitsch

for reminding me on my once expressed thought that a PhD thesis would be

something worth writing and subsequently for encouraging me to do so. His

discussing the content of the thesis and showing me paths to realize the implemen-

tation, yet giving me the space to find my own way while always giving advice if

needed, have been exemplary. His comprehensive understanding of the subject and

keen eye when revising drafts have been extremely helpful. Furthermore, I would

like to thank Prof. Dr. Barbara Fritz for providing me with the opportunity to

repeatedly present concepts, thoughts, and bits and pieces of my thesis at the

colloquium on the economy of Latin America. Your remarks and comments were

especially useful for finding my methodology and structuring my work, as was your

deadline for presenting my first chapter.

Additionally, I would like to thank the Federal Ministry of Education and

Research (BMBF) and the associated framework program “FONA” that provided

the “Biofuel as Social Fuel”—project and thereby the funding for conducting my

research in Germany and Brazil. I am also grateful for the administrative support

from the German Aerospace Center (DLR). The Potsdam Institute for Climate

Impact Research provided me with a productive work environment, giving me

the chance for exchange with fellow researchers. I would like to thank the team of

the “Biofuel as Social Fuel” project, Anne Klinnert, Katrin Wlucka, Nico Grasselt,

and Wibke Avenhaus, for their support and in particular Thiago Pinto Barbosa who

was extremely important with regard to the transcription of the interviews and

beyond.

During my research stay in Piracicaba at the ESALQ (Escola Superior deAgricultura “Luiz de Queiroz”), the agricultural department of the University of

Sao Paulo, I had the chance to meet a variety of people who were extremely

supportive and had extended expertise about the setor sucroenergetico, who

made me feel very welcome at this beautiful campus. Prof. Dr. Gerd Sparovek

always has been a source of inspiration, thank you for that. Prof. Dr. Thiago Lib�orio

vii

Romanelli has been a huge support when organizing the ESALQ-PIK workshop on

“The Future of the Sugarcane Sector” and beyond. Prof. Dr. Joao Gomes Martines

and Prof. Dr. Weber Amaral supported me with their expertise and contacts.

Rudi Schallenmuller has been warm-hearted and helpful during my research

visits in Ribeirao Preto and provided me with the contact to Hanskarl Kirfel whom I

would like to thank for the highly interesting days visiting usinas and staying at hissıtio. Additionally I would like to thank Daniel Furlan Amaral from ABIOVE for

our extended discussions.

But first and foremost I would like to thank all the experts from universities,

research institutes, industry, government institutions, business associations, and

NGOs who took their time to share their expertise and provided me with fascinating

insights on the setor sucroenergetico.

viii Acknowledgments

Abbreviations

ANEEL Agencia Nacional de Energia Eletrica (Electric Energy

Regulating Agency)

ANP Agencia Nacional do Petr�oleo, Gas e Biocombustıveis

(National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels)

APEX Agencia Brasileira de Promocao de Exportacoes e

Investimentos (Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion

Agency)

APLA Arranjo Produtivo Local do Alcool (Local Ethanol Cluster)

APP Areas de Preservacao Permanente (Permanent Protection

Areas)

ARB (Californian) Air Resources Board

ASTM American Society for Testing and Materials

BAU Business as usual (scenarios)

BNDES Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Economico e Social

(National Development Bank)

BRIC(S) Brazil, Russia, India, China, (South Africa)

BSI Better sugarcane initiative

CBD Convention for biological diversity

CCS Carbon capture and storage

CDM Clean development mechanism

CEIB Comissao Executiva Interministerial do Biodiesel

(Interministerial Executive Committee for Biodiesel)

CENA Centro de Energia Nuclear na Agricultura (Center for Nuclear

Energy in Agriculture)

CEPEA Centro de Estudos Avancados em Economia Aplicada (Center

for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics)

CGEE Centro de Gestao e Estudos Estrategicos (Center for Strategic

Studies and Management)

CHP Combined heat and power (plant)

CIDE Contribuicao de Intervencao no Domınio Economico

(Contribution for Intervention in Economic Domain)

ix

CIMA Conselho Interministerial do Acucar e do Alcool

(Interministerial Council for Sugar and Ethanol)

CNPE Conselho Nacional de Polıtica Energetica (National Energy

Policy Council)

COC Chain of custody

COFINS Contribuicao para o Financiamento da Seguridade Social

(Contribution for Financing Social Security)

CONAB Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (National Company

of Food Supply)

CONSEA Conselho Nacional de Seguranca Alimentar e Nutricional

(National Food and Nutrition Security Council)

CSAA Camara Setorial do Acucar e do Alcool (Chamber for the

Sugar and Alcohol Sector)

CSD Commission on sustainable development

CSR Corporate social responsibility

CTBE Laborat�orio Nacional de Ciencia e Tecnologia do Bioetanol

(Brazilian Bioethanol Science and Technology Laboratory)

CTC Centro de Tecnologia Canavieira (Center of Sugarcane

Technology)

CTNBio Comissao Tecnica Nacional de Biosseguranca (National

Technical Commission on Biosafety)

dLUC Direct land use change

EC European Commission

EIA (US) Energy Information Administration

EISA Energy Independence and Security Act

EKC Environmental Kuznets Curve

EMBRAPA Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria (Brazilian

Agricultural Research Corporation)

EPA (US) Environmental Protection Agency

EPE Empresa de Pesquisa Energetica (Energy Research Company)

ESALQ Escola Superior de Agricultura “Luiz de Queiroz” (‘Luiz deQueiroz’ College of Agriculture)

ETIS Energy technology innovation system

EU European Union

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization

FAPESP Fundacao de Amparo �a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo

(Foundation for Research Support of the State of Sao Paulo)

FEARP Faculdade de Economia, Administracao e Contabilidade de

Ribeirao Preto (Faculty of Economics, Management and

Accounting, Ribeirao Preto)

FFV Flex-fuel vehicle

FINEP Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos (Funding Authority for

Studies and Projects)

x Abbreviations

FONA Forschung fur Nachhaltigkeit (Research for Sustainable

Development)

FSC Forest Stewardship Council

GBEP Global bioenergy partnership

GHG Greenhouse gases

GII Global Innovation Index

GMO Genetically modified organism

GPS Global positioning system

GRI Global reporting initiative

GW GigaWatt

HFCS High-fructose corn syrup

IAC Instituto Agronomico de Campinas (Campinas Institute of

Agronomy)

IBAMA Instituto Brasileiro do Meio Ambiente e dos Recursos

Naturais Renovaveis (Brazilian Institute of Environment and

Renewable Natural Resources)

IEA International Energy Agency

IEEP Institute for European Environmental Policy

IFPRI International Food Policy Research Initiative

iLUC indirect land use change

INMETRO Instituto Nacional de Metrologia, Qualidade e Tecnologia

(National Institute of Metrology, Quality and Technology)

IPI Imposto de Produtos Industrializados (Tax on Industrialized

Products)

ISO International Organization for Standardization

IT Information technology

LADA Land degradation assessment in drylands

LCA Life-cycle assessment

LNBio Laborat�orio Nacional de Biociencias (Brazilian Biosciences

National Laboratory)

MAPA Ministerio da Agricultura, Pecuaria e Abastecimento

(Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply)

MCT Ministerio da Ciencia e Tecnologia (Ministry of Science and

Technology)

MDA Ministerio do Desenvolvimento Agrario (Ministry of Agrarian

Development)

MDIC Ministerio do Desenvolvimento, Industria, e Comercio

Exterior (Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign

Trade)

MF Ministerio da Fazenda (Ministry of Finance)

MMA Ministerio do Meio Ambiente (Ministry of Environment)

MME Ministerio de Minas e Energia (Ministry of Mines and

Energy)

MOT Motor ordinance test

Abbreviations xi

MPT Ministerio Publico do Trabalho (Ministry of Labor)

MW MegaWatt

NGO Non-governmental organization

NIPE Nucleo Interdisciplinar de Planejamento Energetico

(Interdisciplinary Center of Energy Planning)

NIS National innovation system

NTB Non-tariff barrier

OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

PAC Programa de Aceleracao do Crescimento (Program of

Accelerated Growth)

PAISS Plano de Apoio �a Inovacao dos Setores Sucroenergeticos e

Sucroquımicos (Support Plan for Industrial Technological

Innovation in the Sugar-energy and Sugar-chemical Sectors)

PET Polyethylene

PIS Programa de Integracao Social (Contribution to the Social

Integration Program)

PLANALSUCAR Programa Nacional de Melhoramento da Cana-de-Acucar

(National Program of Sugar Cane Improvement)

PNE Plano Nacional da Energia (National Energy Plan)

PROINFA Programa de Incentivo �as Fontes Alternativas de EnergiaEletrica (Program of Incentives for Alternative Sources of

Electrical Power)

PRORENOVA Programa de Apoio �a Renovacao e Implantacao de Novos

Canaviais (Aid Program for Renewal and Planting of New

Sugarcanes)

QDA Qualitative data analysis

R&D Research & development

RED Renewable Energy Directive

RFS Renewable fuel standard

RIDESA Rede Interuniversitaria para o Desenvolvimento do Setor

Sucroalcooleiro (The Inter-University Network for the

Development of the Sugar-Alcohol Sector)

ROI Return on investment

RSB Roundtable on sustainable biomass

RSPO Roundtable for sustainable palm oil

RTRS Round-table for responsible soy

SINDICOM Sindicato Nacional das Empresas Distribuidoras de

Combustıveis e de Lubrificantes (National Association of Fuel

and Lubricant Distribution Companies)

SME Small and medium-sized enterprise

SNPC Sistema Nacional de Protecao de Cultivares (National System

of Cultivar Protection)

TC Ton of cane processed

xii Abbreviations

TIS Technological innovation system

TNC Transnational companies

TRS Total recoverable sugar

TUV Technischer Uberwachungsverein (Technical Inspection

Association)

UFMG Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Federal University of

Minas Gerais)

UFRJ Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (Federal University of

Rio de Janeiro)

UFScar Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos (Federal University of

Sao Carlos)

UN United Nations

UNEP United Nations Environmental Program

UNICA Uniao da Industria de Cana-de-Acucar (Brazilian Sugarcane

Industry Association)

UNICAMP Universidade Estadual de Campinas (University of Campinas)

US(A) United States of America

USP Universidade de Sao Paulo (University of Sao Paulo)

USPTO United States Patent and Trademark Office

WTI West Texas Intermediate

WTO World Trade Organization

WWF World Wide Fund for nature

ZAE Zoneamento Agroecol�ogico da Cana-de-Acucar

(Agroecological Zoning of Sugarcane)

Abbreviations xiii

ThiS is a FM Blank Page

Contents

1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

1.1 Biofuels at the Focal Point of Energy, Agriculture and Rural

Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

1.1.1 Energy: The Resource . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

1.1.2 Biofuels, Trade and Rural Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

1.1.3 Biofuels, Food and Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

1.1.4 Biofuels and the Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

1.2 Presenting the Research Puzzle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

2 Theoretical Framework: Sustainability and Innovation . . . . . . . . . . 13

2.1 Sustainability and the Transition Towards Sustainable Mobility . . . 15

2.1.1 The Quest for Sustainable Development: Challenges of

Transition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

2.1.2 Sustainable Mobility and Related Energy Issues . . . . . . . . 17

2.2 Economic Research: Strands and Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

2.2.1 Neoclassical Views on Environment, Sustainability

and Innovation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

2.2.2 Ecological Economics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

2.2.3 Evolutionary Economic Theory, Innovation and Path

Dependency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

2.3 Innovation, Technologies and the Dynamics of Socio-technical

Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

2.3.1 From Linear to Systemic Innovation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

2.3.2 Overcoming Lock-In: Radical and Incremental Change . . . 29

2.3.3 Innovation Systems and Institutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

2.3.4 ‘Physical’ and ‘Social’ Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

2.3.5 National and Technological Innovation Systems . . . . . . . . 33

xv

2.4 Technology Innovation Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

2.4.1 Supply-Push and Demand-Pull Mechanisms . . . . . . . . . . . 34

2.4.2 The Energy Technology Innovation System (ETIS)

Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

3 Research Design: A Case for Methodological Pluralism . . . . . . . . . . 45

3.1 Why Brazil? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

3.2 Selection of the Research Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

3.2.1 Assessing Qualitative Research in Economics . . . . . . . . . . 49

3.2.2 Integrating Qualitative and Quantitative Research

Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

3.2.3 Strategies for Qualitative Research: ‘Qualitative ContentAnalysis’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

4 Empirical Research—setor sucroenergetico in Brazil—From the

Experts’ Mouths . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

4.1 The Empirical Approach: Conducting Research in Brazil . . . . . . . 65

4.1.1 The Interviews . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

4.1.2 The Experts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

4.1.3 Computer Assisted Qualitative Data Analysis: ATLAS ti

Software . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

4.1.4 Selection and Application of the Codes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72

4.2 Sugarcane in Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82

4.2.1 The Flex Crop Sugarcane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

4.2.2 Biofuels and Sugarcane Ethanol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87

4.2.3 Recent History of the Sugarcane Complex . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

4.3 Developments in the Agricultural and Industrial Systems:

Product/Process Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98

4.3.1 Mechanization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99

4.3.2 Cogeneration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113

4.3.3 New Technologies and Further R&D Aspects . . . . . . . . . . 124

4.4 Actors, Networks and Institutions: The Institutional Level . . . . . . 144

4.4.1 National Perspective: Governmental Institutions, Strategies

and Politics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145

4.4.2 National Perspective: Laws, Regulations and

Enforcement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156

4.4.3 National Perspective: Industrial Cooperation . . . . . . . . . . . 168

4.4.4 International Perspective: Concentration and

Internationalization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172

4.4.5 International Perspective: Certification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181

4.4.6 International and National Market Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . 195

xvi Contents

4.5 Interdependencies Within and Between Levels:

The Sugarcane-based Energy Technology Innovation System . . . . 209

4.5.1 Recapitulation: What Constitutes an ETIS? . . . . . . . . . . . . 210

4.5.2 Eligibility of Product/Process Level Codes for ETIS . . . . . 211

4.5.3 Eligibility of Institutional Level Codes for ETIS . . . . . . . . 215

4.5.4 Conclusion of the ETIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220

4.6 Sustainability Aspects of the Sugarcane Innovation System . . . . . 222

4.6.1 Land Effects: Expansion, Displacement and iLUC . . . . . . 223

4.6.2 Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229

4.6.3 Economic Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236

4.6.4 Employment and Rural Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248

5 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271

Annex . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273

Contents xvii

ThiS is a FM Blank Page

List of Figures

Fig. 2.1 Environmental Kuznets curve. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Fig. 2.2 Supply-push and demand-pull mechanisms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

Fig. 2.3 The energy technology innovation system—ETIS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

Fig. 4.1 Interview types in quantitative and qualitative research. . . . . . . . . . 67

Fig. 4.2 Classification of the Brazilian experts from the sugarcane

complex . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

Fig. 4.3 Screenshot ATLAS ti—sample of codes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73

Fig. 4.4 Feedback meeting—revision and clustering of inductive and

deductive codes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75

Fig. 4.5 Categories and codes of analysis developed with ATLAS ti . . . . . 76

Fig. 4.6 Assignment of selected codes to ETIS analysis and sustainability

aspects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80

Fig. 4.7 Worldwide cultivation area of sugarcane (2012). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84

Fig. 4.8 Increase in sugarcane production, yield and area

(1980/1981–2013/2014). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86

Fig. 4.9 Industrial sugarcane processing—final products and

by-products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88

Fig. 4.10 Ethanol production in Brazil (1980/1981–2013/2014) . . . . . . . . . . . . 89

Fig. 4.11 Registration of cars in reference to the engine type in Brazil

(1979–2013) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96

Fig. 4.12 Mechanized harvester in the middle of a sugarcane

field (2010) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100

Fig. 4.13 Brazilian electricity supply by source in % (2012) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114

Fig. 4.14 Top five worldwide sugar producers and exporters

(1998–2010) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143

Fig. 4.15 Institutions mentioned in the interviews. Size related to

frequency of mention . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145

Fig. 4.16 Mean prices of hydrated ethanol compared to gasoline in %

(2012) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151

xix

Fig. 4.17 Domestic energy supply regarding different energy carriers in %

(1970–2030) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153

Fig. 4.18 Ethanol consumption in Brazil in billion liters

(1980–2010) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161

Fig. 4.19 The ZAE and suitable areas for sugar cane expansion and

protected areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166

Fig. 4.20 The largest sugar exporters and the largest importers worldwide

(1990–2013) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197

Fig. 4.21 Price index for crystal sugar—translated into US cent

per pound (including 7 % VAT) (2003–2014) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198

Fig. 4.22 Brazilian revenue from sugar and ethanol exports in US$

(1990/1991–2012/2013) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199

Fig. 4.23 Projections: Cane harvested for sugar and ethanol production

(2013–2022) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200

Fig. 4.24 World market prices for WTI crude oil and sugar

(2003–2013) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201

Fig. 4.25 Costs for 1,000 l gasoline, opportunity costs for ethanol and sugar

(2003–2013) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203

Fig. 4.26 Brazilian ethanol exports and imports in US$ million

(1990/1991–2012/2013) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205

Fig. 4.27 Indirect Land-Use-Change (iLUC) effect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226

Fig. 4.28 Reference values for direct emissions and the iLUC effect of

selected biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233

xx List of Figures

List of Tables

Table 4.1 ATLAS ti codes applied on ETIS and subsequently on

sustainability aspects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82

Table 4.2 Annual costs of sugarcane production during five harvests, in

Sao Paulo state . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86

Table 4.3 Comparison of sugarcane ethanol with other first generation

biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

Table 4.4 Employment scenarios sugarcane complex, Sao Paulo state

(2006/2007–2020/2021) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109

Table 4.5 Electricity by different sources in 2009 and 2020 in Megawatt

per hour . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119

Table 4.6 Expected ethanol yield in l/ha. Expected productivity increases

the next 20 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130

Table 4.7 Economic scenarios of first and second generation

ethanol/electricity production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134

Table 4.8 Expansion of sugarcane area by 2025. CGEE-10 % substitution

scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154

Table 4.9 Brazilian legislation with reference to the sugarcane complex

(1965–2012) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158

Table 4.10 Taxation on hydrated, anhydrous and gasoline C (2010) . . . . . . . 162

Table 4.11 BNDES disbursements to the setor sucroenergetico in US$

million (2008–2013) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165

Table 4.12 Protected sugarcane cultivars in numbers—listed at

SNPC/MAPA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165

Table 4.13 Joint Ventures, M&A in the Brazilian sugarcane complex

(2009–2012) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177

Table 4.14 Number of patents granted by USPTO by year of patent grant

(1997–2012) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180

Table 4.15 Sustainability criteria for biofuels in the EU-Renewable Energy

Directive (2009) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186

xxi

Table 4.16 Selection of most important regional and global biofuel

certification schemes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191

Table 4.17 Projections of world market price for WTI crude oil

(2010–2040) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201

Table 4.18 GHG emissions of sugarcane harvesting within four

scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231

Table A.1 New product families and applications of sugarcane-based

material . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273

Table A.2 Frequency of occurrence of institutions mentioned within

the 48 interviews . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274

Table A.3 Registered institutions at the SNPC and the number

of cultivars registered . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274

Table A.4 Global Innovation Index (GII) ranking

(total of 142 countries) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275

Table A.5 ETIS aspects of the ‘setor sucroenergetico’—product/process

level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275

Table A.6 ETIS aspects of the ‘setor sucroenergetico’—institutional

level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 277

xxii List of Tables