PAGASA/DOST Workshop on High Resolution Modelling using CCAM May 22, 2009.
Contributions through the ESCAP Multi-Donor Trust Fund for … · 2018-04-11 · Myanmar...
Transcript of Contributions through the ESCAP Multi-Donor Trust Fund for … · 2018-04-11 · Myanmar...
ICT Innovations in risk-informed
early warning systems
Contributions through the
ESCAP Multi-Donor Trust Fund
for Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness
1. Leveraged ESCAP’s comparative advantages
2. Regional benefits (standards, sharing of experience)
3. Filled gaps in early warning
4. Built institutional capacity of member States
5. Created regional architecture of multi-hazard early warning
ESCAP Multi-Donor Trust Fund
for Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness
“A Decade Reducing Tsunami Risk in Asia-Pacific”
44%
25%
19%
12%
Thematic Areas of Trust-Fund Projects 2005-2015:
$15 million
Early Warning
Communication
Risk Knowledge
Response (SOP)
#1 Innovation
End-to-end tsunami early warning services
to low capacity, high risk countries
-
Scenario based risk informed tsunami early
warning services
Architecture of Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System (IOTWS) Trust Fund Contributions - RIMES 24x7 operations for underserved countries
National projects , Tsunami SOPs, Capacity development activitiesCourtesy of USAID
Indian Ocean Tsunami
Warning System Australia:
National
System
Indonesia:
National
System
India:
National
System
RIMES
IOTWS
Investment
US$300 M;
US$90 annual
operating cost
ESCAP
addresses
capacity gaps in
Maldives, Sri
Lanka, Myanmar,
…
Enhancing Coastal Hazard Early Warning and Response:
Tools and Institutional Strengthening
�INSPIRE, a computer-based tsunami propagation and inundation risk assessment tool
�ESCAPE, a computer-based evacuation mapping tool
� Tsunami tool for hazard and risk assessment
� Recommended to use worst case scenarios to guide evacuation mapping
INSPIREInternet based Simulation Platform for Inundation and Risk Evaluation
INSPIREInternet based Simulation Platform for Inundation and Risk Evaluation
� Estimated Casualties
� Estimated Building Damage
ESCAPEEvaluation System for Computing Accessibility and Planning Evacuation
� Land cover
� Slope
� Critical facilities
� Population density
� Age and gender
Evacuation basin and direction to shelters
Required evacuation time
#2 Innovation
Operationalizing Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS)
through Common Alerting Protocol (CAP), an international standard,
for exchanging emergency alerts that allows a consistent alert
message to be disseminated simultaneously over many different
communications systems.
CAP on a MAPImproving Institutional Responsiveness to Coastal Hazards through
Multi-Agency Situational Awareness
Myanmar Philippines Maldives
PAGASA
PHIVOLCS BULLETIN
(PDF)
SMS
WEB
MOBILE APP
Free Mobile
Alert Act
The following originate and relay architecture has been tested and proven
CAP on a MAP in the PhilippinesSuper Typhoon Haima (Lawin) SAMBRO Bulletin
CAP on a MAP in MyanmarAlerts from the Unnamed Cyclone affecting Myanmar (Oct 2016)
#3 Innovation
Impact-based forecasting for slow-onset
disasters
Challenges of Impact based
forecasts: Real time scenarios
Risk
ScenariosTrigger
Probabilistic
Forecast
Impact
Outlook
• Forecast Component of different lead time
• ECMWF
– Seasonal and Monthly outlooks
– Monthly update
– 10 days – Pentad (averaged condition over 5 days)
• RIMES WRF model
– 3 days high resolution forecast
• Parameters:
– rainfall
– temperature (Tmax, Tmin)
– wind speed and direction
– humidity
SESAME
Specialized Expert System for Agro-Meteorological Early Warning for Climate Resilient Agriculture
SESAME
Specialized Expert System for Agro-Meteorological Early Warning for Climate Resilient Agriculture
• Dynamic Crop information panel for expert users
• Weather bulletins for Pentads, monthly and seasonal outlooks
• Real time verification of forecast products
• Validation of information at different levels:
NHMS
�
Agro-met staff
�
Extension Worker
�
Farmer
SESAME
Specialized Expert System for Agro-Meteorological Early Warning for Climate Resilient Agriculture
• Dissemination of information
– Email service
– SMS service, through gateways
– Fax service
• Mobile application
– Android version - Beta
SMS Alert!
Temp will rise by 3 deg C above Threshold in next 24 hrs.
“PROTECT YOUR GRAPES FROM EXCESSIVE HEAT”
SMS
Thank you
Sanjay K Srivastava,
Chief, Disaster Risk Reduction
United Nations Economic and Social Commission
for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok