124 CLIMATE OUTLOOK - PAGASA Public...

CLIMATE OUTLOOK (JUNE-NOVEMBER 2020)

Prepared by:PAGASA-DOSTClimatology & Agrometeorology Division (CAD)Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)

124th Climate Forum

ENSO STATUS

Climate Outlook (Jun – November 2020)

Summary

ENSO INDICATORS, AT A GLANCE...

In the last two months, negative subsurface temperature anomalies strengthened and have shifted from the western to eastern Pacific Ocean.

During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above average across most of the Pacific Ocean, the western Atlantic Ocean and the Indian Ocean.

OCEANIC INDICATOR, SST

ATMOSPHERIC INDICATOR, SOI

Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.

The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the 30 days ending 24 May was +1.8. The 90-day value was −2.3. Both values are well within the ENSO neutral range.

ENSO INDICATORS, AT A GLANCE...

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-iri_plume

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-iri_plume

This plot shows some disagreements among the individual models, as well as the difference between the mean of the forecasts of dynamical versus statistical models.

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-nmme

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-nmme

❑ Warm El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral condition persists across the tropical Pacific Ocean.

❑ Majority of the climate models favor continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions until the third quarter (July – September) 2020.

❑ ENSO Alert System Status: INACTIVE

Transition to SW (MAY-JUN)

WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT MAY AFFECT THE COUNTRYJune – November 2020

LOW PRESSURE AREAS (LPAs)

THUNDERSTORMS

INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ)

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AREAS (HPAs) EASTERLIES

TROPICAL CYCLONES

SOUTHWESTMONSOON

PERCENTAGE (%) RAINFALL CONDITION

Less than or = 40 way below normal

41 – 80 below normal

81 – 120 near normal

Greater than 120 above normal

about our Rainfall Maps..

MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST June 2020

Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall

Percent Normal (%)

WAYBELOW NORMAL

< 40 %

ABOVE NORMAL< 120 %

NEAR NORMAL81 < 120 %

BELOW NORMAL41 < 80 %

way below normal near normal above normal

0 7 75 0

No. of

provinces

likely to

experience:

MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST July 2020


Percent Normal (%)

WAYBELOW NORMAL

< 40 %

ABOVE NORMAL< 120 %



way below normal below normal near normal above normal

5 17 38 22

No. of

provinces

likely to

experience:

MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST August 2020


Percent Normal (%)

WAYBELOW NORMAL

< 40 %

ABOVE NORMAL< 120 %




0 17 64 1

No. of

provinces

likely to

experience:

MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST September 2020


Percent Normal (%)

WAYBELOW NORMAL

< 40 %

ABOVE NORMAL< 120 %




0 0 82 0

No. of

provinces

likely to

experience:

MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST October 2020


Percent Normal (%)

WAYBELOW NORMAL

< 40 %

ABOVE NORMAL< 120 %




0 1 52 29

No. of

provinces

likely to

experience:

MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST November 2020


Percent Normal (%)

WAYBELOW NORMAL

< 40 %

ABOVE NORMAL< 120 %




0 4 70 8

No. of

provinces

likely to

experience:

How certain or uncertain are we?

Forecasting rainfall in probabilistic terms is a way of expressing uncertainty in the future weather/climate.

PROBABILISTIC FORECAST

FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected Dams and Lakesin (mm) and (%N) FOR JUNE - NOVEMBER 2020

Angat WS Lake Buhi Lake Lanao Magat WS Malinao WS Pantabangan WS San Roque Cascade WS

MIN 245.4 201.0 200.1 195.3 123.2 228.5 274.6MAX 260.6 227.2 265.1 277.3 133.8 249.8 298.7

MEAN 255.9 217.9 238.2 244.6 127.8 236.0 285.4%NORMAL 96.9 101.6 86.9 91.5 96.3 93.7 82.3

MIN 325.3 238.4 267.6 155.6 180.1 247.6 258.0MAX 378.0 254.0 369.3 285.2 204.7 289.1 297.8

MEAN 353.3 245.9 315.4 235.3 189.5 258.5 283.0%NORMAL 91.8 93.6 105.9 57.9 127.1 77.7 42.6

MIN 300.2 137.6 193.6 345.6 105.9 271.7 694.0MAX 412.7 207.3 286.6 716.1 117.6 507.6 932.4

MEAN 368.5 172.7 237.8 535.8 112.1 367.6 789.9%NORMAL 92.0 82.6 100.7 105.6 82.6 102.5 105.6

MIN 360.6 258.2 238.3 291.6 162.8 292.2 372.3MAX 392.9 268.2 299.2 385.5 179.3 336.8 399.5

MEAN 382.8 264.3 267.2 342.8 170.9 312.6 387.8%NORMAL 100.4 97.2 106.8 93.5 102.1 95.3 86.9

MIN 325.7 427.3 205.9 311.6 226.5 364.9 310.6MAX 491.8 546.1 288.8 437.5 248.0 506.2 359.5

MEAN 388.1 488.3 232.0 345.5 240.1 426.6 348.1%NORMAL 121.7 129.5 107.4 110.1 110.4 137.0 90.5

MIN 188.7 447.4 132.5 129.0 217.0 160.9 73.2MAX 414.7 513.4 241.6 237.6 251.3 270.5 145.4

MEAN 276.4 476.7 200.5 180.5 240.8 210.0 111.1%NORMAL 102.6 109.6 103.1 90.6 108.2 102.7 86.7

FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL (JUNE - NOVEMBER 2020 )

JUNE

JULY

NOVEMBER

SEPTEMBER

AUGUST

OCTOBER

NAME

FORECAST RAINFALL OF RAIN STATIONS OVER SELECTED DAM AREASin (mm) and (%N) FOR JUN - NOV 2020

MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL

AMBUKLAODAM 290.0 81.8 288.8 41.0 831.0 105.5 392.9 86.0 355.4 86.8 109.4 85.8

ANGATDAM 259.5 96.5 336.7 81.1 416.1 92.3 392.7 101.2 335.7 119.2 253.7 111.9

APUNAN 284.8 83.8 291.2 41.8 764.6 105.6 390.8 86.9 352.9 94.0 129.9 84.7

BADAYAN 279.7 84.1 289.3 41.1 730.0 104.9 388.8 87.9 344.8 101.3 148.4 84.6

BINGADAM 289.1 81.3 283.8 41.5 836.6 105.5 390.5 86.2 350.4 85.5 100.2 86.2

BOBOK 283.6 83.6 286.2 43.5 772.4 105.8 387.0 87.0 354.7 90.9 121.5 86.4

BUNGA 245.5 90.6 249.3 64.9 471.2 104.4 330.4 93.8 394.9 125.2 193.9 105.7

BUYOC 233.9 93.2 195.6 57.0 502.9 105.5 333.1 95.6 325.3 111.8 188.9 90.1

DANTOR 217.5 92.0 176.2 55.6 484.5 103.8 318.0 96.0 325.4 112.2 192.5 89.5

DUMAYUP 231.1 96.0 212.3 67.9 447.9 106.5 326.0 96.7 323.3 113.9 183.6 91.1

HALONG 246.2 89.0 209.4 48.7 583.8 104.5 348.3 93.0 332.0 108.4 190.2 88.1

IPODAM 259.6 95.2 307.6 67.6 444.5 91.6 401.8 102.8 343.8 125.5 191.9 99.2

MAGATDAM 193.6 98.9 159.8 70.9 340.5 105.4 289.1 101.0 311.7 118.6 184.8 95.9

MAPUTI 254.1 96.7 356.5 95.0 351.0 92.3 378.7 100.1 393.3 122.5 261.9 91.8

MARIKIT 233.6 95.8 281.5 91.1 290.0 100.4 301.5 95.8 477.1 147.6 243.0 97.1

MATULID 259.0 97.4 362.1 94.0 371.7 91.5 383.4 99.7 414.6 121.6 324.6 118.1

NORZAGARAY 258.9 94.8 306.5 66.7 444.8 91.9 404.4 103.2 331.2 124.3 182.1 92.6

PADALIS 232.2 95.0 256.9 80.9 338.5 102.6 304.5 95.4 443.3 140.5 223.3 102.5

PANTABANGAN DAM 232.4 93.2 255.0 77.2 345.7 100.6 315.3 97.2 380.8 137.7 164.2 104.0

SANROQUEDAM 276.0 80.8 258.0 46.3 699.7 105.7 373.9 89.8 310.6 98.8 85.7 93.1

STODOMINGO 251.1 92.3 264.3 60.9 535.3 106.5 349.1 92.6 341.9 107.3 168.1 88.7

TALAGUIO 251.5 96.1 331.5 82.9 385.2 92.1 387.8 102.2 335.2 120.9 210.0 90.0

UMIRAY 257.2 98.5 387.2 109.9 315.9 90.7 370.0 98.2 513.4 124.3 424.3 117.8

JUNE JULY AUGUSTSITES OCTOBERSEPTEMBER NOVEMBER

FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINSin (mm) and (%N) FOR JUN - AUG 2020

CATCHMENT MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal

Abra RB 180.6 291.7 239.9 81.2 112.0 304.7 186.9 39.7 402.0 772.0 584.2 100.8

Abulug RB 124.4 188.7 154.9 69.0 62.4 147.6 94.9 34.6 184.6 457.2 334.0 89.0

Agno RB 245.9 300.5 276.3 79.4 241.9 444.8 301.2 51.0 472.5 941.6 662.7 102.1

Bicol RB 183.3 226.2 213.4 101.1 237.4 253.2 244.5 94.6 109.7 206.5 163.2 79.6

Bued RB 270.3 297.1 284.4 77.5 246.8 282.9 258.7 44.7 637.0 940.5 729.1 106.6

Cagayan RB 118.0 277.8 186.7 91.4 58.8 314.7 182.4 70.1 147.1 722.3 323.8 98.2

Laoag RB 174.2 235.7 206.5 74.8 113.3 176.3 138.7 36.0 417.4 615.0 511.0 100.4

Pampanga RB 226.8 300.1 251.7 90.0 240.9 399.0 296.1 66.5 214.9 659.9 429.8 94.3

Pasig-Laguna RB 213.0 273.2 247.9 97.0 225.6 377.4 297.4 79.9 176.5 518.5 318.5 88.1

Sinocalan RB 265.6 288.7 276.3 76.8 245.6 272.9 257.7 49.3 597.3 656.0 630.4 106.0


Agus RB 184.6 249.8 214.2 87.6 238.6 336.7 282.8 111.6 172.9 258.2 208.5 99.5

Agusan RB 157.9 246.1 215.0 95.8 167.0 358.1 266.5 133.6 88.0 271.0 175.7 94.9

Buayan-Malungon 117.5 161.5 137.7 81.3 154.4 233.9 191.9 135.6 75.5 154.5 117.2 86.1

Cagayan de Oro 199.2 255.5 233.9 87.1 273.0 378.0 332.5 108.4 196.4 297.0 253.8 103.7

Cotabato RB 127.6 269.9 232.6 86.9 160.3 388.0 311.7 110.5 98.5 315.1 232.1 97.3

Davao RB 201.6 254.7 239.3 88.2 261.0 364.3 328.3 117.2 229.8 283.8 264.5 103.0

Tagoloan River 196.8 246.0 219.8 90.3 273.7 367.5 327.0 119.5 198.7 298.7 249.7 103.8

Tagum-Libuganon 204.5 244.9 223.9 90.3 205.0 346.3 264.8 123.8 180.5 263.2 216.6 100.3

LUZON

MINDANAO

JULY 2020 AUGUST 2020JUNE 2020

FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINSin (mm) and (%N) FOR SEP - NOV 2020


Abra RB 300.6 397.5 353.8 93.7 109.1 349.1 259.3 93.6 16.5 190.8 138.3 72.9

Abulug RB 255.6 328.6 291.0 95.0 222.1 334.6 304.8 105.0 129.4 331.8 222.4 93.6

Agno RB 339.3 467.8 395.3 94.4 237.1 370.4 315.2 114.6 51.2 182.1 111.9 94.9

Bicol RB 258.5 274.3 265.5 98.3 428.1 604.0 506.3 129.7 460.7 609.4 492.8 110.6

Bued RB 369.8 396.0 382.6 89.2 232.7 350.0 287.8 97.3 44.2 84.9 60.7 89.2

Cagayan RB 221.1 385.5 279.5 97.4 300.8 665.9 360.8 114.8 129.0 561.5 232.3 94.8

Laoag RB 316.4 365.6 346.2 93.2 73.5 265.0 169.9 77.9 14.7 163.2 77.8 62.0

Pampanga RB 292.2 471.1 380.8 101.5 237.7 518.4 338.7 129.2 69.1 414.3 154.7 87.9

Pasig-Laguna RB 235.3 435.4 326.6 96.3 308.6 660.8 438.5 135.1 109.6 604.9 299.2 132.4

Sinocalan RB 367.4 388.4 380.8 93.2 230.6 294.7 259.0 111.1 46.7 90.0 65.4 93.6


Agus RB 220.8 282.6 249.6 108.3 204.9 237.9 216.3 108.9 133.5 219.4 176.1 100.7

Agusan RB 142.8 275.0 204.1 101.0 188.5 293.2 234.3 105.5 181.6 414.9 252.7 105.1

Buayan-Malungon 106.3 150.7 126.5 93.2 112.0 205.9 168.9 115.1 75.0 199.2 140.7 101.2

Cagayan de Oro 246.0 302.0 282.0 107.9 207.0 294.8 250.6 109.5 132.4 214.5 175.6 103.8

Cotabato RB 114.5 302.8 235.9 100.6 161.8 345.6 239.3 105.2 123.4 239.6 217.2 105.1

Davao RB 190.9 276.8 244.0 98.5 196.2 264.2 226.1 102.7 142.9 236.0 208.1 99.5

Tagoloan River 237.2 298.4 270.2 107.8 225.2 330.4 283.4 109.6 149.5 214.0 185.0 108.1

Tagum-Libuganon 182.8 266.2 216.0 95.4 172.8 269.7 215.7 102.7 140.8 266.8 217.7 105.3

NOVEMBER 2020SEPTEMBER 2020

LUZON

MINDANAO

OCTOBER 2020

warmer

warmer

warmer

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECAST (JUN- NOV 2020)

Near average

warmer

warmer

warmer

warmerNear average

Near average

Near average

Slightly warmer

warmer

warmer

warmer

Slightly cooler

Slightly warmer

warmer

warmer

Slightly warmer

Slightly warmer

Slightly cooler

warmer

Near average

warmer

warmer

warmer

warmer

warmer

warmer

warmer

Near average

warmer

Northern Luzon 31.5 39.0 32.9 38.8 31.8 37.5 30.9 36.1 29.8 36.5 28.7 36.3

Lowlands Luzon 31.5 37.8 30.5 39.4 31.4 36.7 31.3 38.3 31.0 35.9 29.6 35.8

Mountainous Luzon 26.1 27.7 25.0 27.0 25.4 26.9 24.6 27.0 25.4 26.8 26.2 27.6

Metro Manila 33.7 37.1 33.0 36.2 32.2 35.0 32.2 35.4 32.9 35.2 32.7 35.8

Lowlands Visayas 32.7 37.4 32.3 36.7 32.5 36.8 31.4 36.2 32.0 35.6 31.8 36.0

Lowlands Mindanao 32.6 36.7 32.2 36.9 32.8 35.8 31.5 36.5 32.5 36.5 32.0 36.5

Mountainous Mindanao 32.0 33.1 30.9 33.0 31.4 32.9 30.9 33.0 32.1 33.1 32.0 33.5

Nov-20

Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range

Oct-20TMAX Summary

Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20

Northern Luzon 17.4 24.2 18.6 24.9 18.6 24.4 20.0 23.6 14.6 23.8 16.4 24.2

Lowlands Luzon 18.9 26.9 19.2 25.7 18.1 25.4 20.5 24.7 19.8 25.0 19.2 25.6

Mountainous Luzon 14.7 15.9 14.8 15.8 14.9 15.5 14.3 15.4 13.7 15.2 11.9 14.1

Metro Manila 22.5 25.6 19.2 25.3 21.7 24.3 22.2 24.7 21.6 24.8 20.4 25.6

Lowlands Visayas 20.0 25.6 20.0 25.6 20.1 25.4 21.8 24.4 20.0 25.8 19.9 24.8

Lowlands Mindanao 18.4 25.1 18.4 24.3 17.8 24.4 19.3 23.6 18.3 24.7 19.0 24.3

Mountainous Mindanao 16.6 18.5 16.0 18.1 15.6 18.0 16.4 17.6 17.4 19.0 15.2 17.5

Tmin-Range Tmin-Range

Oct-20 Nov-20TMIN Summary

Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20

Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range

FORECAST RANGES OF TEMPERATURE ( EXTREME)Updated : 18 May 2020

PROVINCE JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOVCORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)

ABRA 16 14 14 16 22 25 17 15 14 16 21 25 1 1 0 0 -1 0

BENGUET 12 9 8 9 17 23 11 10 7 10 16 23 -1 1 -1 1 -1 0

IFUGAO 16 13 14 14 18 20 15 14 14 14 16 20 -1 1 0 0 -2 0

KALINGA 18 16 16 17 19 21 18 17 17 17 18 21 0 1 1 0 -1 0

APAYAO 20 19 18 18 21 21 21 20 18 18 20 21 1 1 0 0 -1 0

MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 16 14 14 15 18 22 16 14 14 15 17 22 0 0 0 0 -1 0

REGION I

ILOCOS NORTE 19 17 15 17 24 26 19 18 16 19 24 25 0 1 1 2 0 -1

ILOCOS SUR 14 11 10 13 21 26 14 13 11 14 21 26 0 2 1 1 0 0

LA UNION 12 9 8 10 19 25 12 11 7 11 18 25 0 2 -1 1 -1 0

PANGASINAN 15 12 10 13 21 26 15 13 10 13 20 25 0 1 0 0 -1 -1

REGION II

BATANES 19 18 15 15 16 15 20 19 15 15 15 13 1 1 0 0 -1 -2

CAGAYAN 21 21 20 19 18 16 22 22 21 19 17 15 1 1 1 0 -1 -1

ISABELA 20 19 19 18 17 16 20 19 20 18 15 15 0 0 1 0 -2 -1

NUEVA VIZCAYA 15 13 13 12 17 21 15 13 13 12 16 20 0 0 0 0 -1 -1

QUIRINO 17 16 18 15 16 17 17 17 18 16 15 16 0 1 0 1 -1 -1

REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)

BATAAN 16 12 11 12 21 24 17 13 11 11 20 24 1 1 0 -1 -1 0

BULACAN 14 10 11 10 16 18 15 11 11 10 16 17 1 1 0 0 0 -1

NUEVA ECIJA 16 12 12 12 19 22 16 13 12 12 18 21 0 1 0 0 -1 -1

PAMPANGA 15 10 10 11 20 22 16 11 10 11 20 24 1 1 0 0 0 2

TARLAC 16 12 10 13 22 25 16 12 10 12 21 25 0 0 0 -1 -1 0

ZAMBALES 15 11 9 12 21 25 15 12 10 11 21 25 0 1 1 -1 0 0

AURORA 17 16 17 15 15 15 17 17 18 15 14 13 0 1 1 0 -1 -2

NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION

METRO MANILA 15 12 11 12 17 20 15 12 12 11 15 17 0 0 1 -1 -2 -3

REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)

BATANGAS 17 15 16 15 18 18 18 16 17 16 17 17 1 1 1 1 -1 -1

CAVITE 18 15 14 15 20 23 19 16 15 15 18 20 1 1 1 0 -2 -3

LAGUNA 16 15 15 15 15 15 16 14 16 14 12 11 0 -1 1 -1 -3 -4

RIZAL 14 12 13 12 14 16 14 12 14 11 12 11 0 0 1 -1 -2 -5

QUEZON 17 16 18 15 11 9 17 17 18 15 9 8 0 1 0 0 -2 -1

REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)

MARINDUQUE 18 17 19 16 12 11 18 18 19 17 10 9 0 1 0 1 -2 -2

OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 16 14 14 14 18 21 16 14 14 15 16 19 0 0 0 1 -2 -2

ORIENTAL MINDORO 16 15 16 16 16 17 16 16 16 16 14 15 0 1 0 0 -2 -2

ROMBLON 16 16 17 16 15 16 17 16 18 17 13 13 1 0 1 1 -2 -3

PALAWAN 17 16 16 16 16 19 17 17 17 15 15 16 0 1 1 -1 -1 -3

REGION V (BICOL)

ALBAY 16 15 16 14 13 10 16 15 17 13 11 9 0 0 1 -1 -2 -1

CAMARINES NORTE 19 18 20 16 11 7 18 19 20 16 8 6 -1 1 0 0 -3 -1

CAMARINES SUR 17 16 17 15 12 10 17 17 19 14 10 8 0 1 2 -1 -2 -2

CATANDUANES 17 16 18 16 13 12 18 17 22 16 12 9 1 1 4 0 -1 -3

MASBATE 19 17 18 16 16 15 19 18 18 16 16 14 0 1 0 0 0 -1

SORSOGON 17 16 17 15 14 10 16 17 18 15 12 9 -1 1 1 0 -2 -1

NORMAL (1981 - 2010) FORECAST ANOMALYFORECAST DRYDAYJune - November 2020

PROVINCE JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOVREGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)

AKLAN 16 16 16 16 16 18 17 16 17 16 14 17 1 0 1 0 -2 -1

ANTIQUE 15 15 14 15 16 20 16 15 14 15 15 19 1 0 0 0 -1 -1

CAPIZ 16 16 17 16 15 17 17 16 18 15 13 16 1 0 1 -1 -2 -1

GUIMARAS 13 13 14 14 15 19 13 13 14 13 14 18 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1

ILOILO 15 15 15 15 15 19 16 15 16 15 14 17 1 0 1 0 -1 -2

NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 13 12 16 13 15 19 12 13 16 12 14 17 -1 1 0 -1 -1 -2

REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)

NEGROS ORIENTAL 16 16 18 16 17 19 15 16 19 15 16 18 -1 0 1 -1 -1 -1

BOHOL 20 18 20 18 18 19 20 20 21 19 17 18 0 2 1 1 -1 -1

CEBU 17 17 19 16 17 19 17 18 19 17 16 16 0 1 0 1 -1 -3

SIQUIJOR 19 19 21 19 19 19 19 20 22 19 18 18 0 1 1 0 -1 -1

REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)

BILIRAN 17 18 19 16 15 15 16 19 19 14 14 12 -1 1 0 -2 -1 -3

EASTERN SAMAR 16 16 20 16 13 8 18 17 20 16 13 10 2 1 0 0 0 2

LEYTE 18 18 19 17 16 15 17 19 19 16 15 13 -1 1 0 -1 -1 -2

NORTHERN SAMAR 17 17 20 17 13 9 19 17 21 17 13 8 2 0 1 0 0 -1

SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 16 17 20 16 13 10 17 18 20 15 13 10 1 1 0 -1 0 0

SOUTHERN LEYTE 20 18 19 17 16 14 19 18 21 17 15 13 -1 0 2 0 -1 -1

REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)

ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 15 18 19 17 16 14 15 18 19 16 16 12 0 0 0 -1 0 -2

ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 14 17 19 17 16 14 15 17 19 16 16 12 1 0 0 -1 0 -2

ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 15 18 19 17 16 15 15 18 19 17 16 12 0 0 0 0 0 -3

REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)

BUKIDNON 12 12 14 12 14 17 11 12 15 11 14 15 -1 0 1 -1 0 -2

CAMIGUIN 19 18 20 18 19 19 19 19 21 18 17 19 0 1 1 0 -2 0

LANAO DEL NORTE 14 15 18 16 16 17 14 15 18 16 15 15 0 0 0 0 -1 -2

MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 15 17 19 16 16 15 15 17 19 16 15 13 0 0 0 0 -1 -2

MISAMIS ORIENTAL 16 16 19 16 17 19 16 16 19 16 16 18 0 0 0 0 -1 -1

REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)

COMPOSTELA VALLEY 17 19 20 18 19 17 17 19 19 17 18 15 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2

DAVAO CITY 14 16 16 15 15 17 14 16 16 15 15 16 0 0 0 0 0 -1

DAVAO DEL NORTE 14 16 17 15 16 16 14 16 17 15 16 15 0 0 0 0 0 -1

DAVAO DEL SUR 16 18 18 18 18 19 16 18 17 18 17 19 0 0 -1 0 -1 0

DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 20 22 21 22 22 22 20 23 21 22 20 22 0 1 0 0 -2 0

DAVAO ORIENTAL 19 21 21 20 21 17 19 22 21 20 19 16 0 1 0 0 -2 -1

REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)

SOUTH COTABATO 17 19 20 19 20 20 17 19 19 19 18 20 0 0 -1 0 -2 0

COTABATO 12 13 15 14 15 17 12 14 15 14 14 16 0 1 0 0 -1 -1

SARANGANI 20 21 21 22 22 22 19 22 21 22 20 22 -1 1 0 0 -2 0

SULTAN KUDARAT 14 16 18 18 17 18 14 16 18 18 17 17 0 0 0 0 0 -1

REGION XIII- CARAGA

AGUSAN DEL NORTE 17 19 21 19 18 15 17 19 21 19 17 15 0 0 0 0 -1 0

AGUSAN DEL SUR 15 17 19 16 16 15 15 17 18 16 16 14 0 0 -1 0 0 -1

DINAGAT ISLANDS 18 19 22 18 15 10 18 20 23 19 14 9 0 1 1 1 -1 -1

SURIGAO DEL NORTE 18 20 23 19 16 11 18 20 23 20 15 10 0 0 0 1 -1 -1

SURIGAO DEL SUR 17 19 21 19 16 12 17 20 21 19 15 12 0 1 0 0 -1 0

ARMM

BASILAN 18 20 22 20 20 21 18 20 20 20 20 18 0 0 -2 0 0 -3

MAGUINDANAO 12 14 17 15 16 17 13 13 16 16 15 15 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -2

LANAO DEL SUR 13 13 17 14 15 18 13 13 17 14 15 16 0 0 0 0 0 -2

SULU 20 21 22 22 21 22 20 22 21 21 20 18 0 1 -1 -1 -1 -4

TAWI-TAWI 21 23 23 23 21 21 21 23 22 22 20 17 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -4

NORMAL (1981 - 2010) FORECAST ANOMALYFORECAST DRYDAYJune - November 2020

FORECAST TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCY

Month Number of TCJUNE 2020 1 OR 2

JULY 2020 2 TO 4

AUGUST 2020 2 OR 3

SEPTEMBER 2020 2 OR 3

OCTOBER 2020 2 OR 3

NOVEMBER 2020 1 OR 2

• Majority of the climate models favors continuation of ENSO-neutral condition until September 2020;

• ENSO Alert System Status: INACTIVE

• Rainfall forecast for the whole country:

• JUNE 2020 : generally near normal rainfall conditions except for some patches of below normal rainfall over Northern Luzon;

• JULY 2020: generally near normal to above normal rainfall condition in most parts of the country except for some provinces in northern and central Luzon that might experience below to way below normal rainfall condition

SUMMARY

• Rainfall forecast for the whole country:

• AUGUST 2020: generally near normal over most of Luzon and Mindanao, while below to near normal in the Visayas except for above normal rainfall in E.Samar;

• SEPTEMBER 2020 : generally near normal rainfall condition for the whole country;

• OCTOBER 2020 : generally near to above normal rainfall condition for the whole country except for patches of below normal in Ilocos Region;

• NOVEMBER 2020 : generally near normal rainfall condition for the whole country; except for some isolated patches of below normal and above normal in Luzon and Visayas;

SUMMARY

• Temperature Forecast: Generally near to above average temperature is predicted in most areas of the country during the forecast period except for slightly below average temperatures in July in some areas of Luzon and the Visayas;

• Tropical Cyclone Forecast: 10 to 14 TCs may enter/develop inside the PAR during the forecast period (Jun to Nov)

SUMMARY

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PAGASA will continue to closely monitor any significant phenomena and

updates/advisories shall be issued as appropriate.

Tentative schedule of next CF:

24 JUNE 2020

Despite the on-going ECQ and Bayanihan to heal as one act, due to Covid-19 …

Website:www.bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

Facebook: www.facebook.com/pagasa.dost.gov.phTwitter: @dost_pagasa

Typhoon927-1541Local 805

FloodLocal 808

IEC Local 102/103

ClimateLocal 905/906

PAGASA new NumberTrunkline: (02) 8284- 0800

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