Old Problems, New Challenges, Huge

Opportunities:

Vulnerability and Urgency in a World of Change

Andy White, CoordinatorRights and Resources Initiative

ECOSOC, 17 April 2008

Context – Insecurity and Urgency

• MDGs overtaken by politically pressing issues of insecurity – energy, national, environmental (climate and water)

• Problems behind MDG’s are same as those behind insecurity – political marginalization, poverty, inequity, lack of respect for human rights and democratic processes

• Challenges converging on 30% of earth’s surface that is considered “forest” – poor and poorly governed

• Rights and democratic governance – not only moral imperative but social and economic, and ecological imperative

• Private capital moving much faster than we can

Huge Global Risks – Undoing of Governments and “Development”

• Early stages of biggest economic/political/climatic transition in modern history

• Risk of:• Expanded civil conflicts, • Further social and political

marginalization of rural and forest peoples

• Continued deforestation and increased carbon emission

• Undoing of governments and “development”

• Haven’t dealt with past, not yet equipped for the future.

Outline: Vulnerability and Urgency

1. Old problems: limited rights, poverty, conflict

2. New, global, challenges: market/political shifts, energy, climate change

3. Huge opportunities: local organizations, new markets and technologies

4. Urgent steps

At least 15 million people lack citizenship recognition – including all hill tribes of SE Asia, most Pygmies of Congo Basin

Women disproportionately disadvantaged, politically, legally, economically and culturally – not a “boutique” or “luxury” issue

Corruption, limited rule of law, limited accountability, judicial redress

Lack of respect for property rights; governments claim 75% of world’s forests – illegal conservation, dispossession and refugees

Lack of basic public services

Old Problems (1) : Lack of Human, Civil Rights and Poor Governance

Forest areas: about 30% of global land area, over 1 billion of world’s poorest, socially and politically disenfranchised

Governance indicators for ITTO producer countries vs. other developing countries

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

Rule of Law Control ofCorruption

Political Stability

Wo

rld

Ba

nk

go

ve

rna

nc

e in

de

xe

s

ITTO Producer Countries

Other developing countries(non ITTO producer)

The ITTO producer countries score lower in all categories, and for the 3 represented above, this difference is statistically significant (.05 double tailed t-test). This tends to show that it is not merely the presence of forest, but of a large export-oriented forest industry that is correlated to poor governance performances.

Governance: ITTO Countries Doing Worse – Questioning Models

Old Problems (2): Extensive Poverty; Slow/No Economic Growth

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

Africa Asia & Oceania L America & Caribbean Developing World

Ave

rage

Ann

ual G

DP

Per

Cap

ita

Gro

wth

197

5-20

04

High Forest Countries* Low Forest Countries

• Extensive, chronic, poverty in forest areas (highest “rates”)

• ½ of “Bottom Billion” – 58 countries “falling apart and falling behind” (Collier ’07)

• “growth” located in urban, coastal areas

• “forest rich” countries doing significantly worse

• ITTO producer countries doing even worse – trade NOT the answer

Old Problems (3) Conflict and Contestation over Resources

In the past twenty years 30 countries in the tropical regions of the world have experienced significant conflict between armed groups in forest areas.

Source: D.Kaimowitz ETFRN NEWS 43/44

Forests in Conflict Zones since 1990

Continent forest threate

ned (million hectares, % of total)

Population

threatened (x

1.000.000)

Africa 130(53%)

52

Latin America

50 (21%)

13

South/ Southeast Asia

52 (22%)

63

Europe/ Central Asia/ N America

10 (4%) -

Total 242 127

• 20% of forest in the tropics experienced violent conflict, spread over 29 countries;

• Most threatened forest in Africa, most of 127 million forest dwellers potentially affected live in Asia.

• Conflict driven by “land” in 40% of cases, key predictor of return

• Good news, armed conflicts are declining

• Bad news, human rights abuses are continuing at same rates

• Unreported news: active tenure contestation remains the norm

Source: Capistrano, de Koning, Yasmi (CIFOR, RECOFTC), 2007

• BRICS driving Global Growth:– BRICs overtake the G6 by 2040– $55 trillion global GDP today, near

$80 trillion by 2020, $150 trillion by 2100?

– the wall of capital

• Growth in demand for commodities– Food to double by 2020– Meat by 50%– Price of sugar doubled, oil, steel

and gold tripled and copper quadrupled since 2001

– the wall of speculation

• All colliding with “poor and poorly governed” – a “clash of the commons”

New Challenges (1): Fundamental Market Shifts: Walls of Capital and Speculation

Global Economics: Goldman Sachs.

2003

New Challenges (2) Convergence of Food, Fuel, Fiber – Land Pressure, Food Riots

50

100

150

200

250

300M

ar-0

0

Mar

-01

Mar

-02

Mar

-03

Mar

-04

Mar

-05

Mar

-06

Mar

-07

(Ind

ex M

arch

200

0=10

0)

(USA) Ethanol (USA) Gasoline (Brazil) Non-Conifer Roundw ood

(USA) Corn Palm Crude oil (MYR/ton)

.

Source: Bloomberg, Wood Resources, CIBC World Markets

• Food, fuel and fiber all competing for the same, declining amount of land about 400 million available (IIASA 2007), all driving food insecurity, riots, conflicts

Political/Market Concern about Energy Fuelling Speculation and Subsidies

Source: OECD/IEA (2006).

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

Q1/

05

Q2/

05

Q3/

05

Q4/

05

Q1/

06

Q2/

06

Q3/

06

Q4/

06

Q1/

07

($U

S b

lns)

Global Biofuels Financings: Q1/05-Q1/07

2010 2015 2030

With No New Government Measures On Climate Change

EuropeUSBrazilChinaIndia

14.8 14.9 8.3 0.7 0.1

18.0 19.8 10.4 1.5 0.2

26.6 22.8 20.3 7.9 2.4

Total 41.5 54.4 92.4

With Government Measures

Europe US Brazil China India

16.4 16.4 8.6 1.2 0.1

21.5 27.5 11.0 2.7 0.3

35.6 42.9 23.0 13.0 4.5

Total 48.8 73.0 146.7

Projected world biofuels consumption (MToe)• By 2030 Demand for energy 50%• Biofuels – increase in investment, consumption and area• Brazil – 4.5 million ha by 2016, • Oil palm in tropics – up by 5.5 million ha in last 10 years• 280 million ha for biofuels alone - 2020

New Challenge (3) Climate Change

1. Already happening

2. Unknown impacts and unintended consequences from intervention

3. “the social justice issue of our generation” (unfairness in who caused it, who is hurt by it, requires fundamental shifts in “elite” consumption)

Indirect Effects, Social Concerns

1. Adaptation

2. Mitigation

1. Continued elite capture/limited effectiveness of aid interventions – exacerbating tensions

3. Who sets the rules?

2. Feeds speculation, subsidies and “last great global land grab”

3. Continued unfairness, attempts at social engineering, the “new Washington Consensus”

Huge Opportunities: Where’s the Hope?

1. People and their organizations

• entrepreneurship• holding us all

accountable

3. Empowering technologies• enabling organization,

land rights and pro-poor enterprises Source: Economist; iAfrica

2. Markets• New opportunities for

the poor, shifts and domestic demand

What to Do? – Urgent Next Steps

1. Recognize the urgency

2. Rethink, our approaches

3. Reorganize, our institutions

BAU will not deal with the “speed and

violence” of social and political upheaval

What to Do? – Urgent Next Steps

2. Secure their rights (property, human, gender, civil)

1. Dramatically ramp up land mapping, negotiation, delimitation

2. Focus on conflict prone and post-conflict countries

3. Ensure that REDD and Conflict mechanisms are pro-poor and pro-rights

* The least cost approach to REDD?

What to Do? Urgent Steps

3. Support their organizations, their voice, and their enterprises

1. Encouraging small-scale enterprises (policy and regulatory reforms)

2. Prioritizing women’s rights and groups

3. Support community exchanges and capacity building

* Rethink and refocus development models and approaches

Challenges never so daunting, opportunity for a dramatic difference never so great

“Speed and Violence”

We must do things differently

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